2023 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

 #21

The Minnesota Twins had a mediocre season in 2022, but followed it up with a curiously fascinating offseason.  Will it lead to a better season in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#17 - 3rd in AL Central

MIH - Byron Buxton

MIP - Chris Paddack

PTW - Joe Ryan

2022 Results

#18 - 78-84, 3rd in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Carlos Correa

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Jhoan Duran

The Minnesota Twins made a splash leading into 2022 by landing one of the top shortstops in the game in Carlos Correa.  He had an outstanding season for them, while Luis Arraez won the batting title.  However, their pitching struggled to keep pace with their offense.  It led to a lackluster season in a division that wasn't very good.

Additions / Subtractions

The Twins made some interesting waves in the offseason this year.  After Carlos Correa agreed to a contract with the Giants, and then the Mets, he ended up back in Minnesota on a huge deal.  Then they traded their batting champ to Miami for starter Pablo Lopez.  They also traded Gio Urshela to the Angels for a minor leaguer.  They signed catcher Christian Vazquez to be their new backstop replacing Gary Sanchez.  They also took a flier on Joey Gallo as a reclamation project.  Add in the signing of Michael A. Taylor as insurance for Byron Buxton's brittle body, and it was a fascinating offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Byron Buxton

It's going to be true every year until it isn't.  The success of the Twins is tied directly to Byron Buxton's health.  He is entering his 9th season in the big leagues (age 29 season), and only once has he been able to play over 100 games, and that was back in 2017.  He made his first All Star team in 2022, but only played in 92 games.  However, in those 92 games, he hit 28 homers, a 135 OPS+, and had a 4.0 WAR.  The Twins can be good without Buxton, but they won't be great without him.  He might be the biggest X-factor in the league.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenta Maeda

The Twins have been working hard trying to improve their pitching staff for awhile now.  After starting a rookie pitcher on Opening Day in 2022, the Twins traded for starter Tyler Mahle and closer Jorge Lopez mid-season last year.  Then they traded for Pablo Lopez this offseason.  However, the solution to their rotation might simply be getting healthy.  The last time we saw Kenta Maeda for a full season, he almost won the 2020 Cy Young.  He is finally healthy again, but he's also entering his age 35 season.  If Maeda can get back to where he was in 2020, the starting rotation might be better than it has been for awhile.

Prospect to Watch

Simeon Woods Richardson

The Twins have a top 10 farm system with 3 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  With their former #1 overall pick in Royce Lewis recovering from yet another ACL tear, the most likely impact from their deep prospect pool might be Simeon Woods Richardson.  This starting pitcher has found himself the centerpiece of two different blockbuster trades, first going from the Mets to the Blue Jays in the Marcus Stroman deal of 2019, then going from the Blue Jays to the Twins in the Jose Berrios deal in 2021.  Now he is ready to show what he can do at the big league level.  For a starting rotation always looking for extra help, Woods Richardson will definitely get an opportunity at some point this season to show what he can do.  It might also be the longest name ever to have to fit on the back of a jersey.

2023 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

The Twins are kicking off their brand new uniforms with a season where they could really finish anywhere from first to third.  So much of what they do this year depends on health.  Their pitchers have to stay healthy, and their stars have to stay healthy.  Not only is Buxton an injury liability, but Carlos Correa couldn't get a contract from a big market due to possible injury concerns.  Too much can go wrong, and with teams a little less volatile in front of them, this is where I see the Twins ending up.

Fearless Prediction

Byron Buxton plays more games in 2023 than Carlos Correa.

The only way for this whole Carlos Correa saga to end is for him to get hurt this year, right?  Two different organizations wouldn't sign off on his surgically repaired leg and ankle from his minor league days.  The Twins took the leap, but already knew the risk.  Either Correa is a borderline MVP this year or he gets hurt.  There is no in between.  We all know Buxton will be hurt at some point, so if Correa plays less than Buxton, the Twins are having a rough year.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

 #10

The Minnesota Twins extended their improbable postseason losing streak to 18 games in 2020.  Will the streak end in 2021?  Will it keep going?  Will they have a chance to end it?

2020 Predictions

#3 - 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

MIH - Byron Buxton

MIP - Kenta Maeda

PTW - Alex Kirilloff

2020 Results

#4 - 36-24, 1st in AL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

In the 2020 regular season, everything went right for the Minnesota Twins.  They won the division, they were one of the best teams in the American League, and they were well positioned to make a deep postseason run playing a team with a losing record in the first round.  Then they actually got to the postseason.  That team with the losing record was the Houston Astros who definitely know how to play in the postseason.  The Twins don't, and they were quickly swept out of the playoffs before they even realized they started.  It extended this crazy streak of playoff futility.  Now, no one remembers all the successes of the season.  All anyone remembers is how disappointing the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest need for the Twins entering the offseason was pitching, with Jake Odorizzi leaving in free agency.  They tried to address it by signing J.A. Happ for the rotation and Alex Colome to strengthen the bullpen.  The biggest offseason moves for the Twins were the re-signing of veteran slugger Nelson Cruz and locking down the shortstop position with the slick-fielding Andrelton Simmons.

Most Important Hitter

Max Kepler

A breakout star for the Twins in 2019 was Max Kepler, who ended up garnering MVP votes at seasons end.  In 2020, Kepler was good but not great.  The Twins' lineup is definitely the strength of the team, with a mix of up-and-coming stars and established veterans.  Kepler, along with Byron Buxton, have the potential of being the stars of the Twins' roster for years to come.  A bounce back season from Kepler in 2021 should establish himself as one of the league's rising stars and a bat the Twins can rely on moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Berrios

For years, everyone has been waiting for Jose Berrios to put everything together and establish himself as one of the most electric and dominant pitchers in all of baseball.  Although he has shown great durability and some great success in the league, making the All Star Team in both 2018 and 2019, he has yet to make himself the "guy."  In 2021, Kenta Maeda established himself as the ace of the Twins' staff, which happened because of a career year from Maeda and another good not great year from Berrios.  Entering his age 27 season, Berrios has maybe another season or two to find that dominance.  If he doesn't, he will still be a good pitcher, but the Twins need him to be an ace, not just good.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Kirilloff

My pick for the Prospect to Watch for the Twins in 2020, Alex Kirilloff would have definitely gotten his opportunity last year if not for the shortened season.  Instead, he didn't make any impact until he became the first player in MLB history to make his Major League debut by starting a playoff game.  Now, although he is slated to start this season in the minors, Kirilloff should be a regular part of the big league starting lineup at some point this season and for years to come.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The Twins have a lineup that feels mostly unchanged from 2020, but they also feel like a playoff team that might be starting to lose some steam in terms of their success and dominance.  Their inability to truly upgrade, especially in their starting rotation, will keep them from winning their division, putting them in the one game Wild Card Round.  Not having the go-to ace, I'm predicting that ridiculous playoff losing streak will extend by one.

Fearless Prediction

The Twins' top starting pitcher entering the postseason is currently not on their roster.

At some point, the Twins have to recognize their need for more pitching.  At least you would think so.  Look for the to pull off a trade at some point throughout the season for a starting pitcher that becomes the ace of the staff ahead of Maeda and Berrios.  It might be a little out of character for the Twins to do so, but it could easily be a necessity for a team that might be feeling their hold on the division slipping away.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have consistently been one of the most talented teams in the league, but have yet to get over the hump and turn it into postseason success.  Will 2016 change that trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose World Series

2015 Result: 92-70, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

The Dodgers had a wonderful 2015 regular season, boasting the best two pitchers in all of baseball.  Clayton Kershaw is the pitcher from another world, but it was Zach Greinke that wound up on top.  However, once again they were not able to turn regular season success into postseason victories as they lost to the eventual NL champs in the NLDS.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After Greinke had such a historic season in 2015, he skipped town and signed with Arizona.  This was really the only subtraction, but it's a big subtraction.  Added to the roster for 2016 is Scott Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda to replace the production lost by Greinke.  Other than that, the Dodgers have practically the same roster, however there was one more major change.  Manager Don Mattingly is now in Miami, and rookie manager Dave Roberts has taken over the helm for LA.

Most Important Hitter

Yasiel Puig

Yasiel Puig is one of the greatest enigmas in all of baseball.  For a week, he will look like an MVP candidate.  The next week, he will look like he couldn't make the AAA squad.  People love to talk about his flash and flair, but he needs to be more productive on the field.  If he can consistently produce, all of a sudden their lineup is one of the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenta Maeda

It's rare that a team's most important player entering the season is a rookie, but Japanese imports are not ordinary rookies.  Kenta Maeda was one of the most sought-after free agent pitchers this offseason.  The Dodgers brought him in to potentially be the other ace at the top of the rotation with Clayton Kershaw.  Replacing Zach Greinke is next to impossible, but if Maeda pitches the way some people think he can, he will come close.

Player to Watch

Julio Urias

Everyone knows about Corey Seager: Opening Day starting shortstop, favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and outside candidate for NL MVP.  However, whenever the Dodgers' farm system would be mentioned in trade talks, there were two untouchable prospects named.  The first was Seager, and the second was Julio Urias.  This 19 year old lefty is on a fast track to the big leagues, and if the Dodgers' injury issues continue in their starting rotation, look for Urias to make his big league debut sooner rather than later.  It's obvious that the Dodgers are banking on the future of their franchise to be built around Seager and Urias.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

The Dodgers are set to have another strong regular season in 2016.  Their rotation is not as strong as last year, but it is still pretty good.  Their lineup is always good as well.  However, the problem has always been what they do in the postseason.  With the steps forward the Giants have taken, I see the Dodgers having to work their way through the Wild Card game.  They will win that game, but not get any further.  They need to figure out what it will take to make that next step soon as their current core of players are not getting any younger.

Fearless Prediction

Yasiel Puig will be traded by the Trade Deadline.

One of the things I think it will take for the Dodgers to take a step forward in their progress and production will be to move on from Yasiel Puig.  He has been more distracting than dominant as the Dodgers never quite know what they are going to get out of him.  Sometimes, it is not just about having good players but having the right good players.  The outfield is a position of great depth for the Dodgers, with Joc Pederson, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Scott Van Slyke all proven big leaguers also on the roster.  They could easily afford to lose Puig, and they would still be able to get a big return for him from somebody.  This is a move that needs to happen though if the Dodgers want to win any time soon.