2024 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

 #22

The Minnesota Twins went through some cost cutting this off-season.  Will the result still bring about wins in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#21 - 3rd in AL Central

MIH - Byron Buxton

MIP - Kenta Maeda

PTW - Simeon Woods Richardson

FP - Byron Buxton plays more games in 2023 than Carlos Correa.

2023 Results

#10 - 87-75, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Ryan Jeffers

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Sonny Gray

The AL Central is always up for grabs, and the Twins went out and took it in 2023.  They did this with only half a season from their most talented player in Byron Buxton.  Their pitching carried them.  Their rotation pitched well enough that the lineup just needed to score enough.  It was good enough for a division championship and a playoff run.

Additions / Subtractions

The Twins were active this off-season moving payroll around and saving money.  Gone are Jorge Polanco, Joey Gallo, Michael A. Taylor, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Emilio Pagan, and Jorge Lopez.  Coming to the Twins in their place are Carlos Santana, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani, and Justin Topa.  The subtraction list is much more impressive than the addition list.

Most Important Hitter

Edouard Julien

One of the breakout stars for the Twins in 2023 was Edouard Julien at second base.  All he did was hit, gathering a 130 ERA+ with a .263 average, 16 homers in just 109 games.  Entering only his age 25 season, the Twins felt good enough about Julien to trade away their All Star second baseman in Jorge Polanco.  Now Julien has to show that 2023 was the start of something great instead of a fluky flash to start his career.

Most Important Pitcher

Pablo Lopez

With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda moving on, Pablo Lopez is now the true ace of the Twins.  Coming off a solid season with a 117 ERA+, Lopez has become a trendy dark horse pick for the Cy Young in 2024.  With the loss of depth in their rotation, the Twins need Lopez to be that good to anchor that rotation.  Otherwise, the team will need to score a lot more than last season.

Prospect to Watch

Brooks Lee

If the Twins need to score in 2024, Brooks Lee might be a major factor in doing so.  Sporting the 15th best farm system in baseball, the Twins have four prospects in the Top 100, and Lee is the one most likely to impact the team this season.  Ranked the 18th best prospect in baseball, and the 2nd best prospect in the system, Brooks Lee is a 23 year old switch hitting shortstop that just knows how to hit.  A first round pick in 2022, Lee looks to have an impact at some point in 2024 for the big league club.

2024 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The AL Central is as unpredictable of a division as I have seen in awhile.  While the AL East has 4 elite teams and one good team, the AL Central has 4 average teams and one bad team.  Anything can happen.  With the steps back due to payroll the Twins took, I see them taking a step back, however never count out the Twins.  They will always be interesting.

Fearless Prediction

Half the Twins Opening Day lineup will be traded before the start of 2025.

The Twins tried to reset some payroll this off-season while still competing.  If they struggle like I think they might, there could be a full reset in order.  Names like Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff were already on the trade block leading into this season, and Carlos Santana is a perennial Trade Deadline acquisition.  Do they finally give up on Byron Buxton?  Does Royce Lewis become expendable to make room for Brooks Lee?  Does Carlos Correa?  The Twins could become very interesting next off-season.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

 #21

The Minnesota Twins had a mediocre season in 2022, but followed it up with a curiously fascinating offseason.  Will it lead to a better season in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#17 - 3rd in AL Central

MIH - Byron Buxton

MIP - Chris Paddack

PTW - Joe Ryan

2022 Results

#18 - 78-84, 3rd in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Carlos Correa

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Jhoan Duran

The Minnesota Twins made a splash leading into 2022 by landing one of the top shortstops in the game in Carlos Correa.  He had an outstanding season for them, while Luis Arraez won the batting title.  However, their pitching struggled to keep pace with their offense.  It led to a lackluster season in a division that wasn't very good.

Additions / Subtractions

The Twins made some interesting waves in the offseason this year.  After Carlos Correa agreed to a contract with the Giants, and then the Mets, he ended up back in Minnesota on a huge deal.  Then they traded their batting champ to Miami for starter Pablo Lopez.  They also traded Gio Urshela to the Angels for a minor leaguer.  They signed catcher Christian Vazquez to be their new backstop replacing Gary Sanchez.  They also took a flier on Joey Gallo as a reclamation project.  Add in the signing of Michael A. Taylor as insurance for Byron Buxton's brittle body, and it was a fascinating offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Byron Buxton

It's going to be true every year until it isn't.  The success of the Twins is tied directly to Byron Buxton's health.  He is entering his 9th season in the big leagues (age 29 season), and only once has he been able to play over 100 games, and that was back in 2017.  He made his first All Star team in 2022, but only played in 92 games.  However, in those 92 games, he hit 28 homers, a 135 OPS+, and had a 4.0 WAR.  The Twins can be good without Buxton, but they won't be great without him.  He might be the biggest X-factor in the league.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenta Maeda

The Twins have been working hard trying to improve their pitching staff for awhile now.  After starting a rookie pitcher on Opening Day in 2022, the Twins traded for starter Tyler Mahle and closer Jorge Lopez mid-season last year.  Then they traded for Pablo Lopez this offseason.  However, the solution to their rotation might simply be getting healthy.  The last time we saw Kenta Maeda for a full season, he almost won the 2020 Cy Young.  He is finally healthy again, but he's also entering his age 35 season.  If Maeda can get back to where he was in 2020, the starting rotation might be better than it has been for awhile.

Prospect to Watch

Simeon Woods Richardson

The Twins have a top 10 farm system with 3 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  With their former #1 overall pick in Royce Lewis recovering from yet another ACL tear, the most likely impact from their deep prospect pool might be Simeon Woods Richardson.  This starting pitcher has found himself the centerpiece of two different blockbuster trades, first going from the Mets to the Blue Jays in the Marcus Stroman deal of 2019, then going from the Blue Jays to the Twins in the Jose Berrios deal in 2021.  Now he is ready to show what he can do at the big league level.  For a starting rotation always looking for extra help, Woods Richardson will definitely get an opportunity at some point this season to show what he can do.  It might also be the longest name ever to have to fit on the back of a jersey.

2023 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

The Twins are kicking off their brand new uniforms with a season where they could really finish anywhere from first to third.  So much of what they do this year depends on health.  Their pitchers have to stay healthy, and their stars have to stay healthy.  Not only is Buxton an injury liability, but Carlos Correa couldn't get a contract from a big market due to possible injury concerns.  Too much can go wrong, and with teams a little less volatile in front of them, this is where I see the Twins ending up.

Fearless Prediction

Byron Buxton plays more games in 2023 than Carlos Correa.

The only way for this whole Carlos Correa saga to end is for him to get hurt this year, right?  Two different organizations wouldn't sign off on his surgically repaired leg and ankle from his minor league days.  The Twins took the leap, but already knew the risk.  Either Correa is a borderline MVP this year or he gets hurt.  There is no in between.  We all know Buxton will be hurt at some point, so if Correa plays less than Buxton, the Twins are having a rough year.