2023 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

 #16

The Texas Rangers have spent the last couple offseasons trying to buy their way into contention.  Will 2023 reward them with a playoff berth?

2022 Predictions

#20 - 4th in AL West

MIH - Adolis Garcia

MIP - Jon Gray

PTW - Josh Jung

2022 Results

#24 - 68-94, 4th in AL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Marcus Semien

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Martin Perez

The 2022 Texas Rangers were all about seeing how much improvement they could get out of the money they spent on Marcus Semien and Corey Seager.  The answer was ... not a lot with them alone.  They only won 8 more games in 2022 from 2021 as their pitching struggled to keep up.  Outside of Martin Perez and a couple arms out of the bullpen, the pitching staff was well below average in 2022.  The lack of improvement led to manager Chris Woodward being fired mid-season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rangers continued this offseason on their spending spree, which started by replacing their manager with future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy.  Then, the Rangers rebuilt their rotation the same way they did their lineup: free agency and lots of money.  So in comes free agent starters Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jake Odorizzi (only he was via trade), as well as reliever Ian Kennedy.  So consider the rotation re-tooled.

Most Important Hitter

Corey Seager

Entering his second season as a Ranger, Corey Seager should have something to prove.  Although 2022 was a really good season for him, it could have been even better.  Seager is being paid like a superstar, yet his production was eclipsed by his high-priced double play mate Marcus Semien.  He hit a career high 33 homers, but he only had a 119 OPS+ when he has been in the 130-150 range.  He did play the full season, which is huge for a guy who has struggled to stay on the field.  Now he has to put it all together, which may be easier for him in 2023.  Seager is one mentioned often as a player that will benefit the most from the new rule that bans the shift.  Teams implemented the shift on Seager more than almost any other player in baseball in 2022.  This led to a .245 batting average when he has a career average of .287.  With this simple change, that batting average could bump significantly.  Now, can he stay on the field for a second consecutive full season, a feat he has only accomplished once in his career?

Most Important Pitcher

Jacob deGrom

Speaking of health ... The Rangers took a huge gamble this offseason giving Jacob deGrom one of the richest contracts a starting pitcher has ever received.  His 5 year, $185 million deal will make him the 5th highest paid starter in baseball this season, a number that actually goes up as the contract ages.  So why is the a problem?  Over the last 3 seasons, deGrom has only thrown 224 innings.  He has almost had single seasons reach that number.  To be fair, one of those seasons was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but the point remains the same.  After being a work horse for the first 6 seasons of his career, deGrom simply hasn't been on the field.  The struggle has also been those seasons have been some of his most dominant.  He was going to set records in 2021 before he got hurt.  If he's healthy, he's the best pitcher in baseball and can lead this re-vamped starting rotation to great heights.  If he's hurt, the Rangers have a black hole at the top of their rotation (as well as their check book).  Which will it be?

Prospect to Watch

Owen White

More focus on pitching for the Rangers...  The Rangers have a strong top end of their farm system, boasting 6 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The one most intriguing this season is Owen White.  Thanks to injuries and the pandemic, White has had a bit of a rocky start to his pro career, but he has also shown he is probably the best pitcher the Rangers have in their system right now.  With all the new arms in the rotation (and a few returning), White may have trouble cracking the starting 5, but if the Rangers have a shot at a playoff spot down the stretch, White might be an electrifying option out of the bullpen.

2023 Predictions

3rd in AL West

There are multiple ways to build a winner.  You can build your team from the ground up, or you can buy an All Star roster.  The Rangers have gone the second route, and it just might work.  The reason to have faith in this team is Bruce Bochy.  All he has done in his coaching career is win, whether it was early on in San Diego or it was winning 3 World Series in 5 years in San Francisco.  He knows what it takes to build a winner, even when the talent isn't elite.  Now he has possibly the most talented roster he has ever had.  It might take a year or two to put it all together, but Texas is on the fast track to getting back to the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

The Rangers best starter in 2023 will be Nathan Eovaldi.

What is crazy about what the Rangers have done in their spending spree is they were able to buy depth.  Jacob deGrom is a huge gamble, but they also backed it up with several other guys in case he is injured again or needs extra rest.  That's why I think, when all is said and done in 2023, Nathan Eovaldi will be the one looked at as their best pitcher.  He has had some injury issues in the past as well, but he has been consistent over the last few seasons and has always shown the ability to carry a staff if he needs to.  This was one of the sneaky best signings of the offseason.  The Rangers will be glad they got him.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Minnesota Twins

#8

The Minnesota Twins have been a popular pick to be a breakout team for each of the past few seasons.  Will 2019 finally be the year the Twins break through?

2018 Predictions

2nd in AL Central

Byron Buxton will start in centerfield in the All Star Game.

2018 Results

78-84, 2nd in AL Central

I may have been right where the Twins were going to finish in 2018, but I was wrong on many things.  I said they were going to be the last team to miss the playoffs as they finish 2nd in the division.  Instead, they finished 2nd almost by default, being the least bad team behind the Indians in the AL Central.  It was a bit of a disappointing season for the Twins that led to manager Paul Molitor being fired.

Additions / Subtractions

With Paul Molitor, an old school baseball lifer, being fired, the Twins went in a new direction with rookie manager Rocco Baldelli taking over.  They also were very effective at upgrading several positions with players hungry for a breakout season.  C.J. Cron is their new first baseman after the retirement of longtime face of the franchise Joe Mauer, and for All Star Jonathan Schoop is their new second baseman.  Anchoring the heart of their lineup will be slugging DH Nelson Cruz, one of the most prolific home run hitters of the last five years.  They topped off their offseason by bringing in super utility man Marwin Gonzalez to play wherever it is needed.  He will likely start the season at third base while they wait for Miguel Sano to return from an Achilles injury.

Most Important Hitter

Byron Buxton

I wanted to go in a different direction with someone like Max Kepler (whose development is key to their success), however this team's success is most likely tied to Byron Buxton.  It feels like the Twins have been waiting forever for Byron Buxton to finally fulfill the promise of his potential.  Once touted as the top prospect in baseball and potentially the next Mike Trout, Buxton has struggled to stay healthy enough to actually show what he can be.  In four seasons in the big leagues, Buxton has only topped 100 games once in 2017.  That season he was a 5 win player, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 29 bases while earning a Gold Glove for his work in centerfield.  It also was one of the Twins better seasons in recent years.  Last season, Buxton only saw the field for 28 games, and the Twins struggled.  Their success is tied to Buxton's success.  If this season is going to be a success, he needs to stay healthy and productive.

Most Important Pitcher

Jake Odorizzi

Jose Berrios is starting to emerge as the ace of the Twins rotation.  Statistically, the best pitcher in the rotation last season was Kyle Gibson.  However, the expectation is on Jake Odorizzi.  The Twins traded for Odorizzi from the Rays before last season to help solidify the top of their rotation, and instead he was just below average, having a 4.49 ERA and 97 ERA+.  This season, the Twins will be hoping Odorizzi returns to the form that made him a coveted trade piece a year ago to help their rotation excel.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Gordon

This is the same prospect I highlighted last season, but he never saw the big leagues.  However, he is still the Twins top prospect that has an opportunity to make an impact this season.  Nick Gordon has the bloodline to be a star, being the son of former big leaguer Tom "Flash" Gordon and the kid brother of Mariners second baseman Dee Gordon.  This 23 year old infielder will definitely get his opportunity this season if Jonathan Schoop struggles like he did last season or if there is an injury to either Schoop or shortstop Jorge Polanco.  Either way, I would be shocked if 2019 goes by without Gordon seeing the big leagues.

2019 Prediction

1st in AL Central, lose in ALDS

This is the year the Twins break through.  Their moves to bring in some veteran leadership like Cron, Schoop, and especially Cruz should make the roster a little less inconsistent.  A potential full season out of Buxton will give them their star.  Combine all that with an Indians team covered in question marks and the Twins might be hitting their stride at just the right time.  They won't go far in the postseason, but getting there will be reward enough.

Fearless Prediction

Rocco Baldelli will be name AL Manager of the Year.

If the Twins really do push into the postseason in 2019, much of the praise will be heaped on rookie manager Rocco Baldelli.  He is the latest in a recent string of young former players that have been given managerial jobs mainly because of the fact that they fully embrace the sabermetric side of the game.  Look for Baldelli to join Alex Cora, Aaron Boone, Gabe Kapler, and others as top managers in the league that might be young enough to still be playing.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#18

The Tampa Bay Rays, who normally run a strict course of mediocrity, really struggled in 2016, hitting the cellar in the division for the first time since 2007, when they were still the Devil Rays.  Will 2017 bring about more of the same or open them back up to the middle of the pack?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL East

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in AL East

The Tampa Bay Rays took a trip down to the cellar in 2016, Kevin Cash's second season as manager.  They continued to ride their fine line of competing while rebuilding, trading away guys like Matt Moore mid-season for prospects.  They are hoping that they can work their way back up the division in 2017.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays traded away several key pieces to their team this offseason, including Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly.  They also made some very interesting free agency pick-ups in catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Colby Rasmus.  These will definitely upgrade an offense that always tends to struggle.

Most Important Hitter

Brad Miller

Through a rough 2016 season, one of the bright spots was Brad Miller, who finally found his stroke at the big league level.  He hit 30 home runs with 81 RBI's.  However, he had a .243 average at the same time.  The Rays are moving him full-time to second base with the departure of Forsythe and arrival of Matt Duffy in the Moore trade.  If the Rays' offense is going to improve this season, they need Brad Miller to take another step forward instead of regress back and prove last year was a fluke.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

My Fearless Prediction for the Rays last year may have been one of the worst beats I had in 2016.  Chris Archer was set up to become a superstar last year.  Instead, he struggled to a 9-19 record, sporting a 4.02 ERA.  His 1.8 WAR was the worst of his career.  If the current incarnation of the Rays have any chance of succeeding, Chris Archer needs to become the ace they have been expecting him to be.  This will either give them the frontline starter they need or another piece to trade away and build for the future (which they almost did this offseason even after that abysmal season).

Player to Watch

Jose De Leon

I don't understand how the Rays do it.  They are constantly reinventing themselves, trading away pieces they can't afford anymore for the next generation of Rays stars.  The Logan Forsythe trade this offseason is a perfect example.  Forsythe worked his way up to being one of the best second basemen in the game.  When they traded him to the Dodgers, he required a high asking price.  The centerpiece of the package brought back was Jose De Leon, a 24 year old pitcher ready to burst on the scene.  Watch for him to take his place among the long list of All Star pitchers that first made a name of themselves on the Rays.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL East

You can't keep the Rays down for long.  I'm not saying they are going to compete in the AL East, but they will find their way out of the cellar.  What makes the Rays different than so many other teams is their pitching.  Even with Matt Moore traded and Chris Archer falling apart, the Rays sported one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.  This year is no different.  Guys like Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb could be aces for any other team (and might soon be that).  Blake Snell is a phenom ready to be a star.  If their offense can do anything, they should be able to carry a .500 record.  If they don't, Kevin Cash will be looking for another job as early as June.

Fearless Prediction

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

Like I said, the great thing about the Rays is their ability to re-invent themselves.  Along with De Leon, they have several other pitchers ready to burst on the scene either this year or next (4 of their top 10 prospects).  They need to clear some roster space for this to happen.  Look for Odorizzi, Cobb, and maybe even Chris Archer to be moved this season to make room for the next set of young guys.  Instead of Archer, Cobb, and Odorizzi, you will be hearing about De Leon, Honeywell, and Hu by the end of the year.