2021 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

 #18

The San Francisco Giants were a big surprise in 2020, almost making the expanded playoff field.  Can this team on the verge of a rebuild repeat that success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#27 - 5th in NL West

MIH - Mike Yastrzemski

MIP - Jeff Samardzija

PTW - Joey Bart

FP - Half of the Giants' Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the season.

2020 Results

#17 - 29-31, 3rd in NL West

In Gabe Kapler's first season leading the Giants, he took this roster mixed with young prospects and champion veterans and almost make the playoffs.  The most impressive player of the season was my Most Important Hitter, Mike Yastrzemski, who led the team in almost every offensive category.  They also did all this with their MVP-winning catcher, Buster Posey, opting out of the season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Giants made very little noise this offseason, not really signing any notable free agents.  They did let Jeff Samardzija leave in free agency (who remains a free agent) and signed starter Kevin Gausman to a one year qualifying offer.  They do bring back Buster Posey after opting out last season.  A possible sneaky good move is the signing of Aaron Sanchez for the rotation.

Most Important Hitter

Buster Posey

I have mentioned him several times already, but the storyline surrounding Buster Posey this season is so intriguing.  We haven't seen him play baseball since 2019, and he is reaching a point in his career where he might not be able to be counted on as an everyday catcher.  If he doesn't catch, he would play first base and take at bats from Brandon Belt, the Giants' second best hitter in 2020.  If he catches, he blocks Joey Bart, the top prospect in the Giants' system.  The Giants really needed to NL to have a DH this year.  Instead, they are stuck with a decision to make, and it all revolves around what kind of production they get out of Buster Posey.

Most Important Pitcher

Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto did not perform well in 2020, pitching to only a 79 ERA+.  He is entering the last year of his contract with the Giants in his age 35 season.  With a good year, Cueto could end up with one more good contract somewhere in the league next offseason.  If he struggles again, it not only could hurt the Giants' chances, but it could spell the end of his colorful career.

Prospect to Watch

Joey Bart

This was last year's pick, and I don't like repeating prospect picks like this.  With that said, the Giants don't have any other impactful prospects that look like they could be ready in 2021, and like I already spelled out, the storyline surrounding him, Posey, and Brandon Belt is just too fascinating.  With no Buster in 2020, Bart got to play 33 games behind the plate for the big club with minimal success.  Although his bat struggled, he still has the tools to shine at the plate and hit with a lot of power.  It's just a matter of when he is going to get his opportunity to be a mainstay in the lineup.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL West

Let's face it ... everyone knows the top two teams in this division.  It's really a battle for 3rd between everyone else.  The Giants took huge strides forward in 2020, and I don't necessarily think it was a fluke, however 3rd in the division is their peak in 2021.

Fearless Prediction

At least two of the Giants' starting infielders will be traded mid-season.

I had a similar prediction last season, but this season seems so much ore likely.  If the Giants see they can't make the postseason in 2021, there is a good chance they start unloading some veteran players about to become free agents as many teams do.  This has a little more weight when you consider it is the core of the Giants' World Series runs of the last decade.  Among players entering their contract years are Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford.  It will be a painful day for Giants Nation when any of these players end up in another jersey, but it's very likely a couple of these get traded before the Deadline in 2021.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

#27

The San Francisco Giants sent Bruce Bochy off to retirement in 2019 with an unexpected run at a possible playoff spot.  What can be expected of the Giants now that their legendary leader has moved on?

2019 Predictions

#24 - 5th in NL West

MIH: Steven Duggar

MIP: Dereck Rodriguez

PTW: Tyler Beede

FP: Madison Bumgarner will be traded to the Brewers mid-season.

2019 Results

#19 - 77-85, 3rd in NL West

I had a lot of things wrong in my predictions for the Giants last season.  After bringing in new GM Farhan Zaidi, the general expectation was that a rebuild would start immediately.  Two things changed that plan: Bruce Bochy announcing 2019 would be his last season, and the team actually playing pretty good for most of the year.  The fact that the team played well is kind of head scratching all things considered.  I predicted their Most Important Hitter last year would be Steven Duggar, who only played 73 games and is starting 2020 in the minors.  I said their Most Important Pitcher was Dereck Rodriguez, who had a terrible season and is fighting to stay in the rotation starting 2020.  Tyler Beede got a decent amount of playing time in 2019 but didn't break out, and now he is out for all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery.  Everything I thought needed to happen for the Giants to have some success last year didn't happen, and they had more success than anyone expected.  Even ace Madison Bumgarner, who everyone thought was going to be traded mid-season, ended up riding out the rest of 2019 with the Giants before hitting the free agent market simply because the Giants were trying to contend.  Never underestimate the magic of Bruce Bochy.

Additions / Subtractions

It is rare that the change of manager can so greatly alter a franchise, but Bochy had been around for so long and had come to define who the Giants were that his retirement is the biggest subtraction of the offseason.  Replacing him is the young, energetic, analytics-driven (everything Bochy isn't) Gabe Kapler, fresh off his failed managerial gig with the Phillies.  The other big subtraction was the inevitable departure of Madison Bumgarner, who signed with division rival Arizona.  The additions this offseason resemble a team starting a rebuild, as the Giants brought in a bunch of veterans looking to rebound and possibly be traded mid-season.  So enter starting pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, and Tyson Ross as well as Giants legend Hunter Pence returning to the Bay Area.  Possibly the most interesting addition for the team is the return of Johnny Cueto, who was out for almost all of 2019 with Tommy John.

Most Important Hitter

Mike Yastrzemski

One of the best stories of 2019 on any team was the story of Mike Yastrzemski.  With a name like that, it is hard to hide the family relation.  The grandson of Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski, Mike made his debut in 2019 which everyone paid attention to, mainly because of the family connection.  Then, something unexpected happened; he was really good.  Mike finished the season with a .272 average, 21 homers, 55 RBI, .518 slugging, and a 123 OPS+.  His 2.8 WAR was third on the Giants behind only Jeff Samardzija and MadBum, making him the best position player on the team, all this in only 107 games.  Having played himself into the Giants long term plans, little Yaz is now entering 2020 as the everyday centerfielder.  However, the question is can he repeat his production?  If his sophomore season is anything like his rookie year, the Giants just found yet another gem to be a foundational piece moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija

Let's not kid ourselves, this is a rebuilding year for the Giants.  With Bochy gone, no one expects to see the miraculous run of 2019 again.  With that said, a lot of veterans are going to be playing for what a possible trade mid-season.  The most likely candidate for that is Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija is entering the final year of his 5 year, $90 million deal he signed with the Giants, and outside of one injury-plagued year, he has really pitched well for them.  Last season, he was their best player in terms of WAR.  Now he is entering his age 35 season and a walk year.  A solid 2020 campaign might bring about one more decent payday for Samardzija as well as a possible mid-season trade to a contender.  I think he gets traded regardless, however how much he brings back is dependent on how well he performs.

Prospect to Watch

Joey Bart

As the Giants have taken a downward turn the last few seasons, one positive has been the replenishing of a depleted farm system.  The Giants had now prospects in the top 100 just a few short years ago.  Now they have five prospects ranking among the league's best, and the top of the list should make a splash in 2020.  Joey Bart is a former #2 overall pick in the 2018 draft and now the 14th best prospect in all of baseball.  This catcher is really the whole package.  He can hit, has power, and has the potential to be a Gold Glove caliber defender behind the plate.  The face of the Giants franchise for the last decade has been catcher Buster Posey, however look for him to move to another position so Joey Bart can become the new face of the Giants for the next decade.

2020 Prediction

5th in NL West

Last season, Farhan Zaidi was brought in to rebuild the Giants from the ground up using the new age model that teams like the Rays and Dodgers have mastered.  That plan was stalled for a year after Bruce Bochy had one last heroic run in him.  Now that he is retired, look for the full rebuild to take shape.  The Giants are not competing this year, but they are headed in the right direction.  I was not a fan of Gabe Kapler in Philly, but I think he fits well in San Fran.  He is like the Jason Kidd of MLB.  You could see him being a good coach/manager, but you don't start him off with a star-studded, win now roster.  You start him with a young rebuilding roster.  The Phillies were Kapler's Brooklyn Nets, and the Giants are Kapler's Milwaukee Bucks.  He can learn and grow along with his roster.  I like what they are doing, but it won't lead to success in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Giants' Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the season.

One of the biggest problems with a rebuild is the veterans that are still under contract that block the young prospects from getting experience.  The Giants are filled with that problem, especially on the infield.  Players like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, and even Buster Posey are entering their mid-30's likely not to be on the roster when the Giants are ready to compete again.  In a true rebuild, players like these get traded when they might have maximum value.  That could very well be mid-season for most of these players, especially Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and others like Hunter Pence and maybe even Johnny Cueto.  Something needs to happen to make room for both Joey Bart and Buster Posey in the lineup.  I see a lot of roster movement and turnover in 2020 for the Giants.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#27

The Tampa Bay Rays were very active late in the offseason in a way which left many scratching their head.  Will they be able to compete in 2018 after some of the more recent developments?

2017 Predictions

4th in AL East

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

2017 Result

80-82, 3rd in AL East

Somehow, every year the Rays find a way to be relevant no matter what their roster looks like.  2017 seemed to be no exception as they almost finished .500 while spending minimum money.  This was mainly behind their incredibly strong pitching staff.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I was right but I just jumped the gun a little.

Additions / Subtractions

This is where the headlines were made this offseason for the Rays.  The Rays either traded or did not re-sign 5 of their top 6 players last year in WAR (Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson, and Alex Cobb).  They also traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins.  The only additions to the current roster seem to be inconsequential, with players like C.J. Cron, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez taking the spots of former Rays mainstays.  This offseason reshaped the Rays unlike any offseason in the franchise's history.

Most Important Hitter

Kevin Kiermaier

The one player in the Rays' top 6 in WAR that is still on the roster is Kevin Kiermaier, who happened to be first on that list.  The Rays' centerfielder is still considered one of the best defenders in the game, and his bat last year started to catch up with his glove.  However, he was also the most outspoken on the roster about his disapproval with the roster moves.  He is going to produce as always, but will he be a cancer in the clubhouse?  His attitude more than his production could help determine what kind of season the Rays have.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

Even with losing Odorizzi and Cobb, the Rays' rotation has always been their strength, and this year was to be no different.  However, with the losses of phenom Jose De Leon and top prospect Brent Honeywell in Spring Training (both to Tommy John), this once stellar position is now looking a little thin.  The key to their success this year is Blake Snell.  The Rays' former top prospect, Snell is now entering his third year of big league service.  He has been a serviceable starter, but has yet to become the ace everyone was anticipating.  This rotation is topped by Chris Archer, but Snell taking a big step forward would give them one of the best righty/lefty combinations at the top of the rotation in the league.  It could also help make up for what might be a struggling offense.

Prospect to Watch

Willy Adames

I was really looking forward to talking about Brent Honeywell here because I think he is going to be a star, but that will have to wait another year or two now.  The Rays have a very strong farm system, and it is topped by Honeywell and Willy Adames.  Yes, the Rays have prospects that are not pitchers.  Adames has the potential to join the current group of superstar shortstops in the league over the next few years.  If 2018 falls apart, Adames might get his chance to show what he can do sooner rather than later.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL East

This has been such a strange offseason.  Even though we are well into Spring Training, moves are still being made that have major impacts on teams.  I originally said the Rays would finish 3rd in the AL East.  They always seem to find a way to compete no matter what their roster looks like.  Then they traded Steven Souza.  Then they traded Jake Odorizzi.  Then they traded Corey Dickerson.  Then De Leon and Honeywell were out for the season.  In a week or two of Spring Training, they went from being able to compete at .500 baseball again to probably being irrelevant this season.  I hope I am wrong.  Baseball is always more interesting when teams like the Rays and the A's continue to find ways to compete.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

Kiermaier is obviously frustrated and wants out of Tampa.  He has been very vocal about that.  Although Archer hasn't been as vocal, there have been trade rumors surrounding him more than any other Ray all offseason.  There is no point in trading away all the talent they did unless you truly start over and trade your most valuable assets.  Kiermaier and Archer are young enough to anchor the new wave, but they will want to compete before then.  Look for them to be at the center of the rumor mill come Trade Deadline in July.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#18

The Tampa Bay Rays, who normally run a strict course of mediocrity, really struggled in 2016, hitting the cellar in the division for the first time since 2007, when they were still the Devil Rays.  Will 2017 bring about more of the same or open them back up to the middle of the pack?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL East

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in AL East

The Tampa Bay Rays took a trip down to the cellar in 2016, Kevin Cash's second season as manager.  They continued to ride their fine line of competing while rebuilding, trading away guys like Matt Moore mid-season for prospects.  They are hoping that they can work their way back up the division in 2017.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays traded away several key pieces to their team this offseason, including Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly.  They also made some very interesting free agency pick-ups in catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Colby Rasmus.  These will definitely upgrade an offense that always tends to struggle.

Most Important Hitter

Brad Miller

Through a rough 2016 season, one of the bright spots was Brad Miller, who finally found his stroke at the big league level.  He hit 30 home runs with 81 RBI's.  However, he had a .243 average at the same time.  The Rays are moving him full-time to second base with the departure of Forsythe and arrival of Matt Duffy in the Moore trade.  If the Rays' offense is going to improve this season, they need Brad Miller to take another step forward instead of regress back and prove last year was a fluke.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

My Fearless Prediction for the Rays last year may have been one of the worst beats I had in 2016.  Chris Archer was set up to become a superstar last year.  Instead, he struggled to a 9-19 record, sporting a 4.02 ERA.  His 1.8 WAR was the worst of his career.  If the current incarnation of the Rays have any chance of succeeding, Chris Archer needs to become the ace they have been expecting him to be.  This will either give them the frontline starter they need or another piece to trade away and build for the future (which they almost did this offseason even after that abysmal season).

Player to Watch

Jose De Leon

I don't understand how the Rays do it.  They are constantly reinventing themselves, trading away pieces they can't afford anymore for the next generation of Rays stars.  The Logan Forsythe trade this offseason is a perfect example.  Forsythe worked his way up to being one of the best second basemen in the game.  When they traded him to the Dodgers, he required a high asking price.  The centerpiece of the package brought back was Jose De Leon, a 24 year old pitcher ready to burst on the scene.  Watch for him to take his place among the long list of All Star pitchers that first made a name of themselves on the Rays.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL East

You can't keep the Rays down for long.  I'm not saying they are going to compete in the AL East, but they will find their way out of the cellar.  What makes the Rays different than so many other teams is their pitching.  Even with Matt Moore traded and Chris Archer falling apart, the Rays sported one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.  This year is no different.  Guys like Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb could be aces for any other team (and might soon be that).  Blake Snell is a phenom ready to be a star.  If their offense can do anything, they should be able to carry a .500 record.  If they don't, Kevin Cash will be looking for another job as early as June.

Fearless Prediction

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

Like I said, the great thing about the Rays is their ability to re-invent themselves.  Along with De Leon, they have several other pitchers ready to burst on the scene either this year or next (4 of their top 10 prospects).  They need to clear some roster space for this to happen.  Look for Odorizzi, Cobb, and maybe even Chris Archer to be moved this season to make room for the next set of young guys.  Instead of Archer, Cobb, and Odorizzi, you will be hearing about De Leon, Honeywell, and Hu by the end of the year.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Somehow, the Tampa Bay Rays defy the odds every year and have a solid season with whatever roster is put on the field.  Last season was no exception.  Will 2016 bring more of the same?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL East

2015 Result: 80-82, 4th in AL East

Every season, the Rays look like the last talented team in their division.  Every season, they over-achieve and play better than anyone expects with their talent level and payroll.  This is partially because of a strong pitching staff that seems to replenish itself every year with new young talent.  Although they finished fourth, this was only because of the immense competition in the AL East.  They easily could have ended up a slot or two higher.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

As with every Tampa Bay offseason, it was highlighted by low-level moves that could make a huge impact.  They picked up Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Danny Farquhar is a trade with Seattle, and then added Corey Dickerson in a trade with Colorado for Jake McGee.  The subtraction list is very short, mainly losing low-level players that the acquisitions replaced.

Most Important Hitter

Evan Longoria

It feels like Evan Longoria has been around forever, however he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has gone from being one of the best third basemen in the league to fairly mediocre in the last few years (6 WAR in 2013, 3 WAR in 2014 and 2015).  For the Rays to be back in playoff consideration, the one player they were willing to commit to long term has to start playing again like the MVP-caliber player he once was.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Moore

Matt Moore was one of the next generation of Tampa Bay pitchers to dominate the league.  After an All-Star appearance in 2013, his progress was put on hold by Tommy John surgery in 2014.  He came back to only make 12 starts in 2015.  He needs to be back to full strength in 2016 for the Rays to have any success.

Player to Watch

Blake Snell

Like I said, Tampa Bay is known for the constant carousel of young pitchers.  The next in that line to arrive this season will be Blake Snell.  This lefty is the 14th best prospect in all of baseball and should be ready to make an impact at some point in 2016.

2016 Prediction

3rd in AL East

The Rays always seem to over-achieve and compete in the very competitive AL East.  The young core of pitching will always keep them competitive.  Some upgrades to their offense should help keep this team right around .500 again in 2016 as they show they are not in the cellar, but also not elite.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

One part of the Rays' roster that is elite is Chris Archer.  He is quickly turning into possibly the best of all the pitchers to come through Tampa Bay (yes, that includes David Price).  He has all the skills to be one of the league's elite pitchers, and he has the personality to be considered a true superstar.  Look for Archer to come out and have a phenomenal start that leads to potentially the start in the All Star Game.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Maddon managed the Tampa Bay Rays for nine seasons, leading them to their first six winning seasons and a World Series appearance.  Now that Maddon has moved on, can the Rays continue their winning ways.

Last Season

77-85, 4th in AL East

For the first time since his first two seasons as manager, Joe Maddon's Rays finished with a losing record.  They have always found ways of overachieving year after year under Maddon even with the poor business plan of the Rays.  They would develop their young players, and then trade them right before they are about to cash in with a big contract (except for Evan Longoria).  It's no wonder Joe Maddon left Tampa when he had the chance, especially after the team decided to trade away ace David Price instead of try and lock him up long term.  All this selling of their best players left the Rays with one of their least talented rosters in years.  It's a miracle their record was as good as it was.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Rays continued their selling of their veterans in the offseason.  Leaving the Rays via trade this offseason were Yunel Escobar, Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Jeremy Hellickson, Sean Rodriguez, and 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers.  The only players ready to impact the club now that were brought in were Asdrubal Cabrera and John Jaso.  Eventually, the Rays might see a return for their investments, but it will be a few years down the line.

Most Important Hitter

Desmond Jennings

Desmond Jennings has been poised to have a breakout season for several years now.  In fact, the fact that he hasn't had his big breakout year is probably the reason he is still a Ray since every other good player has been traded.  However, this is a very talented player and hitter that has the potential of being an impact bat in the Rays' lineup.  As one of the few returning players from last year's lineup, he is also, along with Evan Longoria, taking on some veteran leadership responsibilities of the remembering the winning ways of the Rays.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Rays have always been carried by a great pitching staff.  However, with former cornerstones of the rotation like James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price gone, the Rays need the next generation of pitching stars to emerge.  With Alex Cobb starting the season on the DL, this responsibility fall squarely on the shoulders of Chris Archer.  Archer followed his rookie season with a solid performance in 2014.  Now the Rays are counting on him to be the new ace of the staff moving forward ... at least for 3 years or so before they trade him too.

Player to Watch

Steven Souza

Steven Souza is a perfect example of the Rays' gameplan in forming their roster.  Souza was acquired this offseason in the Wil Myers trade.  By trading away a current star, the Rays were able to bring in a potential future star.  Souza is penciled in to be the Rays' staring rightfielder on Opening Day.  Expect him to be the next breakout guy on the trading block for the Rays.

Prediction

5th in AL East

If any team is going to finish with 100+ wins this season, it is going to be the Tampa Bay Rays.  This is one of the least talented teams they have fielded in a very long time (outside of the pitching rotation, which might be the only reason they don't lose 100 games), and losing Joe Maddon is going to show as this club will not overachieve as previous young rosters have.  I am not saying rookie manager Kevin Cash is going to be a bad coach, but he just isn't Joe Maddon.  Maddon seemed to pull off a magic trick every year in Tampa, and with him moving on the team will take a step back no matter who is managing.  They might as well go back to being the Devil Rays because they will be that forgettable.