2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

 #19

The San Francisco Giants took a big step back in 2022 after being the surprise winner of the NL West in 2021.  Will 2023 see a return to the postseason in San Francisco?

2022 Predictions

#14 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Brandon Belt

MIP - Logan Webb

PTW - Heliot Ramos

2022 Results

#15 - 81-81, 3rd in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Mike Yastrzemski

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Carlos Rodon

I don't know if anyone expected the Giants win 107 games again in 2022, especially in this elite division with juggernauts in the Dodgers and Padres.  Finishing the season at .500 and outside the playoff picture may have been a lower fall than anyone was hoping for.  Their pitching was pretty elite, with Carlos Rodon anchoring the staff.  The lineup struggled to hit, with little Yaz finishing 5th on the team in WAR as their best hitter.  As has been the norm for the last decade or so, the Giants remained one of the older teams in the league, with only 3 of their starting 9 playing 2022 under the age of 30.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason served as a little bit of a reset for the Giants.  Carlos Rodon signed a megadeal with the Yankees.  Veterans Evan Longoria, Tommy La Stella, and Brandon Belt moved on.  The Giants did bring some players in, like starters Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, reliever Taylor Rogers, and outfielders Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger.  The biggest story of the Giants offseason who they didn't sign.  The Giants have been trying for the last few years to find a superstar to be their new face of the franchise.  They pushed hard a few years ago for Bryce Harper and lost.  This offseason, for a few hours, they thought they had signed Aaron Judge, then they didn't.  For a few days, they thought they signed Carlos Correa, then they didn't.  Both for different reasons.  Judge wanted to be a Yankee, and Correa's ankle couldn't be cleared by the medical staff.  What's left is a roster with a gaping hole in the star category.  They have a lot of good players, but really no elite players.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Conforto

This spot could just as easily go to Mitch Haniger as they are both in similar situations, but Michael Conforto comes in with a bigger question mark next to his name.  With the lack of the big name signing, the Giants will be leaning on both of these new signings.  What makes them question marks?  Both have struggled to stay healthy.  Haniger has been injured more than healthy in his career, and Conforto didn't play at all in 2022 with an injury.  Both are All Star caliber players at their best.  The question is if they can stay on the field.  If the Giants get 140+ games from both Conforto and Haniger, this lineup is going to be a lot more productive than anyone thinks.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Manaea

Carlos Rodon left a huge hole in the starting rotation, and one of the pitchers asked to try and help fill that hole is new acquisition Sean Manaea.  He has shown signs of being a very good player when he was in Oakland.  Last year in San Diego, he was not very good at all.  He posted only a 75 ERA+ and a standard ERA just under 5.00.  They are hoping for a bounce back, and San Francisco seems to be a good spot for pitchers to have that bounce back season.

Prospect to Watch

Casey Schmitt

For some reason, the Giants tend to struggle building up a strong farm system.  They are currently league average, which is better than they have been in awhile.  They have two prospects in the Top 100, but the prospect most likely to have an impact in 2023 is their 4th best prospect, Casey Schmitt.  Able to play both shortstop and third base, Schmitt has opened eyes with his bat.  Working his way through 3 levels in 2022, Schmitt hit .293 with 21 homers and 78 RBI's.  With an uneasy situation entering the season at third base, Schmitt could snag that job sooner rather than later.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL West

There are just too many question marks for the Giants this season.  Can Conforto and Haniger stay healthy?  Can Manaea bounce back?  Can Joey Bart start to hit?  How much longer can Brandon Crawford be a productive player?  Even at their best in 2023, they have a ceiling of 3rd in their division.  This is probably their floor (they won't be worse than the Rockies).  Could they compete for a Wild Card spot?  Sure, but everything has to go right.  I don't see it happening.

Fearless Prediction

Gabe Kapler is fired after the 2023 season.

Outside of 2021, Gabe Kapler has been a manager of mediocre team.  Is this all his fault?  Not at all.  Could he be the scapegoat?  Easily.  I've never fully understood Kapler as a manager.  He just rubs me the wrong way.  The Giants are usually very patient with their managers, but if they continue to try and recruit star players, look for Kapler to be fired to show they are ready for a new era.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

 #18

The San Francisco Giants were a big surprise in 2020, almost making the expanded playoff field.  Can this team on the verge of a rebuild repeat that success in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#27 - 5th in NL West

MIH - Mike Yastrzemski

MIP - Jeff Samardzija

PTW - Joey Bart

FP - Half of the Giants' Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the season.

2020 Results

#17 - 29-31, 3rd in NL West

In Gabe Kapler's first season leading the Giants, he took this roster mixed with young prospects and champion veterans and almost make the playoffs.  The most impressive player of the season was my Most Important Hitter, Mike Yastrzemski, who led the team in almost every offensive category.  They also did all this with their MVP-winning catcher, Buster Posey, opting out of the season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Giants made very little noise this offseason, not really signing any notable free agents.  They did let Jeff Samardzija leave in free agency (who remains a free agent) and signed starter Kevin Gausman to a one year qualifying offer.  They do bring back Buster Posey after opting out last season.  A possible sneaky good move is the signing of Aaron Sanchez for the rotation.

Most Important Hitter

Buster Posey

I have mentioned him several times already, but the storyline surrounding Buster Posey this season is so intriguing.  We haven't seen him play baseball since 2019, and he is reaching a point in his career where he might not be able to be counted on as an everyday catcher.  If he doesn't catch, he would play first base and take at bats from Brandon Belt, the Giants' second best hitter in 2020.  If he catches, he blocks Joey Bart, the top prospect in the Giants' system.  The Giants really needed to NL to have a DH this year.  Instead, they are stuck with a decision to make, and it all revolves around what kind of production they get out of Buster Posey.

Most Important Pitcher

Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto did not perform well in 2020, pitching to only a 79 ERA+.  He is entering the last year of his contract with the Giants in his age 35 season.  With a good year, Cueto could end up with one more good contract somewhere in the league next offseason.  If he struggles again, it not only could hurt the Giants' chances, but it could spell the end of his colorful career.

Prospect to Watch

Joey Bart

This was last year's pick, and I don't like repeating prospect picks like this.  With that said, the Giants don't have any other impactful prospects that look like they could be ready in 2021, and like I already spelled out, the storyline surrounding him, Posey, and Brandon Belt is just too fascinating.  With no Buster in 2020, Bart got to play 33 games behind the plate for the big club with minimal success.  Although his bat struggled, he still has the tools to shine at the plate and hit with a lot of power.  It's just a matter of when he is going to get his opportunity to be a mainstay in the lineup.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL West

Let's face it ... everyone knows the top two teams in this division.  It's really a battle for 3rd between everyone else.  The Giants took huge strides forward in 2020, and I don't necessarily think it was a fluke, however 3rd in the division is their peak in 2021.

Fearless Prediction

At least two of the Giants' starting infielders will be traded mid-season.

I had a similar prediction last season, but this season seems so much ore likely.  If the Giants see they can't make the postseason in 2021, there is a good chance they start unloading some veteran players about to become free agents as many teams do.  This has a little more weight when you consider it is the core of the Giants' World Series runs of the last decade.  Among players entering their contract years are Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford.  It will be a painful day for Giants Nation when any of these players end up in another jersey, but it's very likely a couple of these get traded before the Deadline in 2021.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

#27

The San Francisco Giants sent Bruce Bochy off to retirement in 2019 with an unexpected run at a possible playoff spot.  What can be expected of the Giants now that their legendary leader has moved on?

2019 Predictions

#24 - 5th in NL West

MIH: Steven Duggar

MIP: Dereck Rodriguez

PTW: Tyler Beede

FP: Madison Bumgarner will be traded to the Brewers mid-season.

2019 Results

#19 - 77-85, 3rd in NL West

I had a lot of things wrong in my predictions for the Giants last season.  After bringing in new GM Farhan Zaidi, the general expectation was that a rebuild would start immediately.  Two things changed that plan: Bruce Bochy announcing 2019 would be his last season, and the team actually playing pretty good for most of the year.  The fact that the team played well is kind of head scratching all things considered.  I predicted their Most Important Hitter last year would be Steven Duggar, who only played 73 games and is starting 2020 in the minors.  I said their Most Important Pitcher was Dereck Rodriguez, who had a terrible season and is fighting to stay in the rotation starting 2020.  Tyler Beede got a decent amount of playing time in 2019 but didn't break out, and now he is out for all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery.  Everything I thought needed to happen for the Giants to have some success last year didn't happen, and they had more success than anyone expected.  Even ace Madison Bumgarner, who everyone thought was going to be traded mid-season, ended up riding out the rest of 2019 with the Giants before hitting the free agent market simply because the Giants were trying to contend.  Never underestimate the magic of Bruce Bochy.

Additions / Subtractions

It is rare that the change of manager can so greatly alter a franchise, but Bochy had been around for so long and had come to define who the Giants were that his retirement is the biggest subtraction of the offseason.  Replacing him is the young, energetic, analytics-driven (everything Bochy isn't) Gabe Kapler, fresh off his failed managerial gig with the Phillies.  The other big subtraction was the inevitable departure of Madison Bumgarner, who signed with division rival Arizona.  The additions this offseason resemble a team starting a rebuild, as the Giants brought in a bunch of veterans looking to rebound and possibly be traded mid-season.  So enter starting pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, and Tyson Ross as well as Giants legend Hunter Pence returning to the Bay Area.  Possibly the most interesting addition for the team is the return of Johnny Cueto, who was out for almost all of 2019 with Tommy John.

Most Important Hitter

Mike Yastrzemski

One of the best stories of 2019 on any team was the story of Mike Yastrzemski.  With a name like that, it is hard to hide the family relation.  The grandson of Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski, Mike made his debut in 2019 which everyone paid attention to, mainly because of the family connection.  Then, something unexpected happened; he was really good.  Mike finished the season with a .272 average, 21 homers, 55 RBI, .518 slugging, and a 123 OPS+.  His 2.8 WAR was third on the Giants behind only Jeff Samardzija and MadBum, making him the best position player on the team, all this in only 107 games.  Having played himself into the Giants long term plans, little Yaz is now entering 2020 as the everyday centerfielder.  However, the question is can he repeat his production?  If his sophomore season is anything like his rookie year, the Giants just found yet another gem to be a foundational piece moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija

Let's not kid ourselves, this is a rebuilding year for the Giants.  With Bochy gone, no one expects to see the miraculous run of 2019 again.  With that said, a lot of veterans are going to be playing for what a possible trade mid-season.  The most likely candidate for that is Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija is entering the final year of his 5 year, $90 million deal he signed with the Giants, and outside of one injury-plagued year, he has really pitched well for them.  Last season, he was their best player in terms of WAR.  Now he is entering his age 35 season and a walk year.  A solid 2020 campaign might bring about one more decent payday for Samardzija as well as a possible mid-season trade to a contender.  I think he gets traded regardless, however how much he brings back is dependent on how well he performs.

Prospect to Watch

Joey Bart

As the Giants have taken a downward turn the last few seasons, one positive has been the replenishing of a depleted farm system.  The Giants had now prospects in the top 100 just a few short years ago.  Now they have five prospects ranking among the league's best, and the top of the list should make a splash in 2020.  Joey Bart is a former #2 overall pick in the 2018 draft and now the 14th best prospect in all of baseball.  This catcher is really the whole package.  He can hit, has power, and has the potential to be a Gold Glove caliber defender behind the plate.  The face of the Giants franchise for the last decade has been catcher Buster Posey, however look for him to move to another position so Joey Bart can become the new face of the Giants for the next decade.

2020 Prediction

5th in NL West

Last season, Farhan Zaidi was brought in to rebuild the Giants from the ground up using the new age model that teams like the Rays and Dodgers have mastered.  That plan was stalled for a year after Bruce Bochy had one last heroic run in him.  Now that he is retired, look for the full rebuild to take shape.  The Giants are not competing this year, but they are headed in the right direction.  I was not a fan of Gabe Kapler in Philly, but I think he fits well in San Fran.  He is like the Jason Kidd of MLB.  You could see him being a good coach/manager, but you don't start him off with a star-studded, win now roster.  You start him with a young rebuilding roster.  The Phillies were Kapler's Brooklyn Nets, and the Giants are Kapler's Milwaukee Bucks.  He can learn and grow along with his roster.  I like what they are doing, but it won't lead to success in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Giants' Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the season.

One of the biggest problems with a rebuild is the veterans that are still under contract that block the young prospects from getting experience.  The Giants are filled with that problem, especially on the infield.  Players like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, and even Buster Posey are entering their mid-30's likely not to be on the roster when the Giants are ready to compete again.  In a true rebuild, players like these get traded when they might have maximum value.  That could very well be mid-season for most of these players, especially Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and others like Hunter Pence and maybe even Johnny Cueto.  Something needs to happen to make room for both Joey Bart and Buster Posey in the lineup.  I see a lot of roster movement and turnover in 2020 for the Giants.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

#6

The Philadelphia Phillies followed up a surprisingly strong 2018 season by winning the Bryce Harper sweepstakes this offseason.  Will all their moves lead to another step forward in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in NL East

This will be Gabe Kapler's only season as Phillies manager.

2018 Results

80-82, 3rd in NL East

I had the Phillies mostly predicted where they ended up, but finishing in 3rd doesn't tell the whole story of their season.  They were competing for the division title most of the season only to fall away down the stretch.  Their record ended up uner .500, but most of the season the talk of the NL East was the Phillies and Braves as the upstart surprises at the top of the division.  Gabe Kapler's early criticism quickly died off as the team found success.

Additions / Subtractions

Ownership for the Phillies made news early in the offseason claiming they were willing to spend "crazy money" over the offseason.  It took awhile, but crazy money they spent when they brought in Bryce Harper on a 13 year contract.  However, that was not the only move they made.  They also traded for what many consider the best catcher in baseball in J.T. Realmuto.  They have a new shortstop in Jean Segura, acquired in a trade with Seattle.  They solidified the back of their bullpen by bringing in David Robertson and rounded out their outfield by signing Andrew McCutchen.  They definitely spent some stupid money and made the most of it.

Most Important Hitter

Bryce Harper

He is the one that got all the money.  He is the one that everyone is watching.  He is their most important hitter.  This lineup is loaded, but it really only works if Harper produces in the middle of the lineup.  Not only is he the biggest name, but he is one of the only left-handed bats in the order.  Harper got this money hoping he jumps back up to his MVP level.

Most Important Pitcher

David Robertson

The main reason the Phillies started to fall apart down the stretch was a lack of a bullpen.  They couldn't finish a game.  David Robertson has been brought in to fix that.  He has been a closer, but he has also been a utility arm in the bullpen, pitching wherever he is needed.  He will be counted on this season to be the difference maker.

Prospect to Watch

Adonis Medina

One of the Phillies top prospects is 22 year old right-handed pitcher Adonis Medina.  Last season, he pitched exclusively in A ball and will start this season in AA, but if the Phillies are in the playoff hunt down the stretch, look for Medina to get a shot in the big leagues to be a spark plug in their bullpen with a shot at making their rotation in 2020.

2019 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

The NL East is going to be super competitive this season, and I see the Phillies being the team to emerge from the group.  Their lineup is just too loaded, and the top of their rotation is elite.  They are going to be hard to beat.  There is an argument that they are the most talented team now in the National League.  I am tempted to pick them to go all the way to the World Series, but these super teams never go all the way in year one.  They might be my 2020 World Series pick though.

Fearless Prediction

Aaron Nola will win the 2019 NL Cy Young.

I am a huge fan of Aaron Nola.  He basically came out of nowhere last year to have a huge season.  Everyone talks about Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but you might forget that Nola finished 3rd in the Cy Young race last season.  I see Nola being energized by their revamped offense to be even better and bring home the trophy in 2019.