2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

 #19

The San Francisco Giants took a big step back in 2022 after being the surprise winner of the NL West in 2021.  Will 2023 see a return to the postseason in San Francisco?

2022 Predictions

#14 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Brandon Belt

MIP - Logan Webb

PTW - Heliot Ramos

2022 Results

#15 - 81-81, 3rd in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Mike Yastrzemski

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Carlos Rodon

I don't know if anyone expected the Giants win 107 games again in 2022, especially in this elite division with juggernauts in the Dodgers and Padres.  Finishing the season at .500 and outside the playoff picture may have been a lower fall than anyone was hoping for.  Their pitching was pretty elite, with Carlos Rodon anchoring the staff.  The lineup struggled to hit, with little Yaz finishing 5th on the team in WAR as their best hitter.  As has been the norm for the last decade or so, the Giants remained one of the older teams in the league, with only 3 of their starting 9 playing 2022 under the age of 30.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason served as a little bit of a reset for the Giants.  Carlos Rodon signed a megadeal with the Yankees.  Veterans Evan Longoria, Tommy La Stella, and Brandon Belt moved on.  The Giants did bring some players in, like starters Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, reliever Taylor Rogers, and outfielders Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger.  The biggest story of the Giants offseason who they didn't sign.  The Giants have been trying for the last few years to find a superstar to be their new face of the franchise.  They pushed hard a few years ago for Bryce Harper and lost.  This offseason, for a few hours, they thought they had signed Aaron Judge, then they didn't.  For a few days, they thought they signed Carlos Correa, then they didn't.  Both for different reasons.  Judge wanted to be a Yankee, and Correa's ankle couldn't be cleared by the medical staff.  What's left is a roster with a gaping hole in the star category.  They have a lot of good players, but really no elite players.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Conforto

This spot could just as easily go to Mitch Haniger as they are both in similar situations, but Michael Conforto comes in with a bigger question mark next to his name.  With the lack of the big name signing, the Giants will be leaning on both of these new signings.  What makes them question marks?  Both have struggled to stay healthy.  Haniger has been injured more than healthy in his career, and Conforto didn't play at all in 2022 with an injury.  Both are All Star caliber players at their best.  The question is if they can stay on the field.  If the Giants get 140+ games from both Conforto and Haniger, this lineup is going to be a lot more productive than anyone thinks.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Manaea

Carlos Rodon left a huge hole in the starting rotation, and one of the pitchers asked to try and help fill that hole is new acquisition Sean Manaea.  He has shown signs of being a very good player when he was in Oakland.  Last year in San Diego, he was not very good at all.  He posted only a 75 ERA+ and a standard ERA just under 5.00.  They are hoping for a bounce back, and San Francisco seems to be a good spot for pitchers to have that bounce back season.

Prospect to Watch

Casey Schmitt

For some reason, the Giants tend to struggle building up a strong farm system.  They are currently league average, which is better than they have been in awhile.  They have two prospects in the Top 100, but the prospect most likely to have an impact in 2023 is their 4th best prospect, Casey Schmitt.  Able to play both shortstop and third base, Schmitt has opened eyes with his bat.  Working his way through 3 levels in 2022, Schmitt hit .293 with 21 homers and 78 RBI's.  With an uneasy situation entering the season at third base, Schmitt could snag that job sooner rather than later.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL West

There are just too many question marks for the Giants this season.  Can Conforto and Haniger stay healthy?  Can Manaea bounce back?  Can Joey Bart start to hit?  How much longer can Brandon Crawford be a productive player?  Even at their best in 2023, they have a ceiling of 3rd in their division.  This is probably their floor (they won't be worse than the Rockies).  Could they compete for a Wild Card spot?  Sure, but everything has to go right.  I don't see it happening.

Fearless Prediction

Gabe Kapler is fired after the 2023 season.

Outside of 2021, Gabe Kapler has been a manager of mediocre team.  Is this all his fault?  Not at all.  Could he be the scapegoat?  Easily.  I've never fully understood Kapler as a manager.  He just rubs me the wrong way.  The Giants are usually very patient with their managers, but if they continue to try and recruit star players, look for Kapler to be fired to show they are ready for a new era.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#12

The New York Mets made several unconventional moves this offseason that set them up to try and win now.  Will this lead them to the playoffs in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Mets rotation will not see one trip through feature Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler again.

2018 Results

77-85, 4th in NL East

The Mets, under rookie manager Mickey Callaway, struggled through 2018.  Their main struggle was scoring runs, as the Cy Young winning ace could only squeeze out 10 wins.  Outside of Jacob deGrom, the Mets were about as inconsequential as could be last season.  As for my prediction around the rotation, I am not sure if they ever made it through one time with those five, but the fact that Matt Harvey was out of town barely a month into the season shows that I was onto something.

Additions / Subtractions

The Mets had one of the most fascinating offseasons.  It all started with their decision to hire an agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, as their new general manager.  He came in claiming to view personnel decisions from a different point of view which was shown in every move they made.  The biggest move was trading outfielder Jay Bruce, along with several top prospects to the Mariners for second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz.  They also signed veterans Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie.  They traded for Keon Broxton, who looks to be their future centerfielder.  Where many teams stay away from veterans these days, Van Wagenen's philosophy seems to be to embrace the veteran to help you win now.  Every acquisition they made, except for Diaz and Broxton, was for a veteran most teams didn't even want to consider because of their age.  However, the Mets knew they needed offense to try and accompany their pitching, and it had to come from somewhere.  The quickest way to get it is through veteran proven commodities.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Conforto

Although veterans like Cano, Lowrie, and Frazier are the names everyone recognizes in the heart of the Mets lineup, their best hitter might be Michael Conforto.  The Mets have been touting Conforto as the future anchor of their lineup for several years, and he has really started to come into his own recently.  He made the All Star Team in 2017 in career year.  Then in 2018, he played his first full season without injury, playing in 153 games and hitting 28 home runs and 82 RBI's.  Although his production has been moving up, he now needs to emerge as a leader.  With veteran hitters surrounding him in the lineup, this might be the year he takes the next step into being the superstar leader the Mets have been waiting for him to be.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

When Steven Matz burst onto the scene in 2015 for the Mets World Series run, he was quickly touted as the fifth ace in a massive rotation.  Syndergaard and deGrom have definitely come through on that promise.  Matt Harvey, thought to be the best of the group in 2015, is now on his third team in 12 months.  The jury is still out on Zack Wheeler as he was out with injuries for a couple seasons.  Then there is Matz, the only lefty of the group.  He has shown signs of greatness over the last few years, but it has been inconsistent.  2018 was the first season he topped 150 innings in his career, however his ERA+ shows he was slightly under league average in his production.  If the Mets want to be elite, either Wheeler or Matz have to join deGrom and Syndergaard at the top of their rotation.  With Matz being the lefty, he is more crucial to be the one to emerge.

Prospect to Watch

Peter Alonso

One thing with a veteran team is you better have depth.  The Mets do.  Entering the offseason, Peter Alonso was probably slated as the Opening Day starting first baseman.  Now, with all acquisitions, that debut may have to wait (thanks to some injuries, maybe not...).  Alonso is a big presence at first base and at the plate.  Before the end of this season, watch for him to emerge as the everyday first baseman in Queens.

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL East

I love what the Mets did this offseason.  They needed offense, and they went out and bought one.  Going after the veterans is not popular these days, but that is more because everyone is more focused on sustainable success.  If you are looking at short term success, it isn't a bad way to go.  Look for the offense to show up and allow their pitching to actually win games this year.  I don't know how sustainable this roster will be after 2019, but they should be fun to watch this season as they come up just short of the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

Noah Syndergaard will finish higher in the Cy Young voting than Jacob deGrom.

I am a huge Noah Syndergaard fan.  The guy is a freak athlete.  Now that he is healthy again, he has the opportunity this year to show how good he is.  For him to finish ahead deGrom in the Cy Young voting would be quite a feat considering deGrom is coming off of possibly the most dominant season a pitcher has had in the 21st century.  It is hard to repeat that level of success, but his teammate will pick up where he left off.  This seems to be what the Mets have done over the last few years.  Their aces take turns being the best pitcher on the staff.  This year should be no different.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

The New York Mets surprised a lot of people in 2015 by not only winning the NL East, but making all the way to the World Series.  Will they be able to repeat that level of success in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in NL East

2015 Result: 90-72, 1st in NL East, lost in World Series

I was way off about the Mets last season.  Everyone knew about their pitching, but the question was if they would be able to produce enough offense to win games.  They hung around long enough to make a couple trades at the Trade Deadline that put them over the top down the stretch.  Their 2015 run to the World Series felt very similar to the Royals' 2014 run to the World Series.  The Royals ended up winning it all the next season.  The Mets are hoping the pattern continues with them.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The primary subtractions for the Mets end up not affecting them that much.  The biggest name to leave was Daniel Murphy, however the trade for Neil Walker brings in a comparable replacement.  They had to give up Jon Niese to get Walker, but their rotation hardly needed him anymore.  Michael Cuddyer retired, however this simply cleared a space for phenom Michael Conforto to start every day.  The biggest move made this offseason was re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, who gave them the boost they needed to get as far as they did last season.  They also brought in veteran Asdrubal Cabrera to give boost at shortstop offensively.

Most Important Hitter

Yoenis Cespedes

The Mets are built around pitching, but their lineup this season will be built around Cespedes.  He is about as streaky of a hitter as there is in baseball right now.  He can look like an MVP candidate for a week, then look like he needs to be benched.  He is like Yasiel Puig minus all the flash.  The biggest question going into this season is can he play centerfield on a consistent basis?  He is an elite corner outfielder, but he showed in the playoffs last year that he can be an average at best centerfielder.  With defensive stud Juan Lagares now relegated to the bench, how much do they let Cespedes bumble and stumble in center before they try and figure out an alternative?  Or does he show that his defensive play in the playoffs was an anomaly, and he can actually play the position well?  Only time will tell...

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Harvey

In his first first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Matt Harvey for the most part returned to his elite form from a few years prior.  The dreaded "innings limit" came up and reared its ugly head at the end of the season, but it turned out to not distract from the playoff push.  Now all the limits should be lifted.  The Mets have the potential, by the end of the season, to have five aces in their rotation.  The difference between this and the Nationals of 2015 is all of the Met's starters are 28 or younger.  They are all in their prime and still getting better.  Matt Harvey, although he wasn't the best of them last year, is the leader.  He needs to keep up with deGrom and Syndergaard to keep that title and make this rotation as historic as it could be.

Player to Watch

Steven Matz

This isn't really a huge revelation considering how well he played in the postseason last year.  The bigger surprise might be the fact that through all he did last season, Steven Matz maintained his rookie status for 2016.  He is expected to be the sole lefty in the Mets' rotation and contribute right away on day one.  Once Zack Wheeler returns from Tommy John, this will be a rotation unmatched in the league.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

This pitching staff is for real.  This is not just silly over-hype because they are a New York team.  Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Syndergaard, and Wheeler would all be aces for any other team.  The Mets have them all.  It will be really hard for them lose behind this group.  Also, the NL East is pretty terrible this season, featuring possibly the two worst teams in all of baseball.  This will be a two team race for the division, and I see the Mets pulling it out.  They won't get all the way back to where they did in 2015 (they still need to improve that offense a little more), but it will be a respectable follow-up to the surprise World Series appearance last season.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Mets' five aces will go down with Tommy John surgery in 2016.

The arm of a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, is a fragile thing these days.  It seems to be a requirement to miss a season with the dreaded Tommy John at some point.  The Mets have already had two of their Big Five go through it in Harvey and Wheeler.  It seems inevitable that it happens again.  If I had to pick one, I would say it's Syndergaard's turn.  However, this pitching staff is deep enough, they can withstand one of the group going down for awhile.  They already have the ageless Bartolo Colon in the fold to fill in for Wheeler until he is ready to come back mid-season.  He would just continue to pitch as he always has.  It just doesn't seem logical to have five young arms like that all finish the season perfectly healthy though.