Showing posts with label Zack Wheeler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zack Wheeler. Show all posts

Friday, July 18, 2025

2024-2025 MLB Wraparound Season

 
Every MLB All Star break, an idea runs through my head ... who has had the best last 12 months in baseball?  ESPN used to calculate this full season of stats from All Star Break to All Star Break back when they cared about baseball.  I used to calculate all these stats for a few years and write about them, last doing it in 2018.  I stopped doing it because I didn't have time to do all the calculating, but now there's websites that can do all that calculating for me.  Add on top of that a certain amount of boredom during this All Star Break, and I've decided to resurrect this yearly article.

We all just saw the All Star Game celebrate who has had the best start to the 2025 MLB season, but if you add in the end of last season, who has had the best last 12 months of baseball.  Let's find out!

Thanks to FanGraphs for having the tools to calculate these stats for me.

Hitting
Batting Average
(minimum 500 plate appearances)
1.  Aaron Judge - NYY - .352
2.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - TOR - .318
3.  Bobby Witt Jr. - KC - .314
4.  Xavier Edwards - MIA - .301
5.  Luis Arraez - SD - .296
6.  Jose Ramirez - CLE - .293
7.  Kyle Tucker - HOU / CHC - .293
8.  Jeremy Pena - HOU - .292
9.  Alejandro Kirk - TOR - .290
10.  Brendan Donovan - STL - .290


Home Runs
1.  Aaron Judge - NYY - 59
2.  Shoehi Ohtani - LAD - 57
3.  Cal Raleigh - SEA - 52
4.  Eugenio Suarez - ARZ - 51
5.  Kyle Schwarber - PHI - 49
6.  Juan Soto - NYY / NYM - 41
7.  Brent Rooker - ATH - 38
8.  Corbin Carroll - ARZ - 38
9.  Ketel Marte - ARZ - 36
10.  Pete Alonso - NYM - 36


RBI's
1.  Aaron Judge - NYY - 140
2.  Eugenio Suarez - ARZ - 131
3.  Shohei Ohtani - LAD - 121
4.  Cal Raleigh - SEA - 121
5.  Kyle Schwarber - PHI - 119
6.  Matt Olson - ATL - 115
7.  Pete Alonso - NYM - 114
8.  Manny Machado - SD - 109
9.  Jackson Chourio - MIL - 106
10.  Seiya Suzuki - CHC - 105


OPS (On Base + Slugging)
(500 Plate Appearance Minimum)
1.  Aaron Judge - NYY - 1.209
2.  Shohei Ohtani - LAD - 1.008
3.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - TOR - .944
4.  Juan Soto - NYY / NYM - .941
5.  Bobby Witt Jr. - KC - .931
6.  Cal Raleigh - SEA - .913
7.  Eugenio Suarez - ARZ - .911
8.  Kyle Tucker - HOU / CHC - .906
9.  Kyle Schwarber - PHI - .904
10.  Corbin Carroll - ARZ - .893


wRC+
(500 Plate Appearance Minimum ... League Average - 100)
1.  Aaron Judge - NYY - 226
2.  Shohei Ohtani - LAD - 172
3.  Juan Soto - NYY / NYM - 165
4.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - TOR - 162
5.  Cal Raleigh - SEA - 157
6.  Kyle Tucker - HOU / CHC - 153
7.  Bobby Witt Jr. - KC - 153
8.  Kyle Schwarber - PHI - 147
9.  Eugenio Suarez - ARZ - 146
t-10.  Pete Alonso - NYM - 145
t-10.  Brent Rooker - ATH - 145


As if Aaron Judge's 2025 season wasn't impressive enough, if you add in how he finished 2024, somehow his stat line gets even more impressive.  He leads every category here ... and by a significant margin.  Strong starts to 2025 have led to impressive wraparound resumes for Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh.  Two impressive resumes that fall just below the plate appearance minimum are Ketel Marte and Byron Buxton.  None of that really matters though.  We're all just living in Aaron Judge's world right now.


Starting Pitching
Innings Pitched
1.  Logan Webb - SF - 206.0
2.  Zack Wheeler - PHI - 205.1
3.  Framber Valdez - HOU - 199.0
4.  Tarik Skubal - DET - 197.0
5.  Christopher Sanchez - PHI - 193.1
6.  Bryan Woo - SEA - 192.0
7.  Spencer Schwellenbach - ATL - 189.2
8.  Jose Berrios - TOR - 188.2
9.  Max Fried - ATL / NYY - 188.1
t-10.  Carlos Rodon - NYY - 187.2
t-10.  Jake Irvin - WAS - 187.2
t-10.  Paul Skenes - PIT - 187.2


ERA
(162 inning minimum)
1.  Paul Skenes - PIT - 2.01
2.  Tarik Skubal - DET - 2.28
3.  Hunter Brown - HOU - 2.36
4.  Zack Wheeler - PHI - 2.37
5.  Framber Valdez - HOU - 2.44
6.  Freddy Peralta - MIL - 2.81
7.  Max Fried - ATL / NYY - 2.82
8.  Garrett Crochet - CWS / BOS - 2.89
9.  Bryan Woo - SEA - 2.91
10.  Spencer Schwellenbach - 2.94


Strikeouts Per 9 Innings
(162 inning minimum)
1.  Garrett Crochet - CWS / BOS - 11.7
2.  Zack Wheeler - PHI - 11.0
3.  Tarik Skubal - DET - 11.0
4.  Jack Flaherty - LAD / DET - 10.7
5.  Carlos Rodon - NYY - 10.5
6.  Dylan Cease - SD - 10.3
7.  Sonny Gray - STL - 10.3
8.  MacKenzie Gore - WAS - 10.3
9.  Hunter Brown - HOU - 10.2
t-10.  Paul Skenes - PIT - 10.2
t-10.  Nick Pivetta - BOS / SD - 10.2


WHIP
(162 inning minimum)
1.  Zack Wheeler - PHI - 0.88
2.  Tarik Skubal - DET - 0.89
3.  Bryan Woo - SEA - 0.92
4.  Paul Skenes - PIT - 0.94
5.  Spencer Schwellenbach - ATL - 0.97
6.  Nathan Eovaldi - TEX - 1.00
7.  Hunter Brown - HOU - 1.02
8.  Framber Valdez - HOU - 1.03
9.  Carlos Rodon - NYY - 1.05
10.  Zack Littell - TB - 1.06


There are some names at the top of these lists you expect to see like All Star Game starters Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes.  Zack Wheeler has been a well-known workhorse the last few seasons.  Garrett Crochet has been everything he is supposed to be since the trade to Boston.  Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez lead continue to lead the Astros rotation.  However, names like Bryan Woo and Spencer Schwellenbach popping up multiple times was not something I was expecting.


Relief Pitching
Innings Pitched
1.  Tyler Alexander - TB / MIL / CWS - 84.0
2.  Jose A. Ferrer - WAS - 80.1
3.  Jason Adam - TB / SD - 78.1
4.  Brant Hurter - DET - 77.1
5.  Tanner Scott - MIA / SD / LAD - 75.2
6.  Bryan Abreu - HOU - 74.1
7.  Tim Hill - NYY - 74.0
8.  Dennis Santana - PIT - 73.1
9.  Emmanuel Clase - CLE - 73.1
10.  Spencer Bivens - SF - 73.1


ERA
(50 inning minimum)
1.  Dennis Santana - PIT - 1.47
2.  Mike Vasil - CWS - 1.59
3.  Daniel Lynch IV - KC - 1.71
4.  Emmanuel Clase - CLE - 1.84
5.  Jason Adam - TB / SD - 1.95
6.  Randy Rodriguez - SF - 2.03
7.  Manuel Rodriguez - TB - 2.05
8.  Aroldis Chapman - PIT / BOS - 2.08
9.  Tyler Rogers - SF - 2.14
10.  Andres Munoz - SEA - 2.21


Strikeouts Per 9 Innings
(50 inning minimum)
1.  Fernando Cruz - CIN / NYY - 14.3
2.  Edwin Diaz - NYM - 14.1
3.  Aroldis Chapman - PIT / BOS - 13.8
4.  Mason Miller - ATH - 13.4
5.  Devin Williams - MIL / NYY - 13.3
6.  Kirby Yates - TEX / LAD - 13.3
7.  Griffin Jax - MIN - 13.2
8.  Mark Leiter Jr. - CHC / NYY - 13.0
9.  Josh Hader - HOU - 12.9
t-10.  Cade Smith - CLE - 12.8
t-10.  Jeremiah Estrada - SD - 12.8


WHIP
(50 inning minimum)
1.  Dennis Santana - PIT - 0.75
2.  Tyler Rogers - SF - 0.84
3.  Josh Hader - HOU - 0.85
4.  Andres Munoz - SEA - 0.86
5.  Aroldis Chapman - PIT / BOS - 0.86
6.  Edwin Diaz - NYM - 0.89
7.  Ryan Walker - SF - 0.91
8.  Jesus Tinoco - CHC / MIA - 0.92
9.  Tyler Holton - DET - 0.93
10.  Nick Mears - COL / MIL - 0.93


Two things that stand out to me ... First, veteran closers like Emmanuel Clase and Josh Hader have their reputation for a reason.  They pitch a lot, and they dominate.  Second, Aroldis Chapman has still got it!  Popping up on most of these lists, Chapman is still one of the best relievers in the game.  Many of the other names I haven't heard much of, I can imagine a lot of teams are calling the Pirates about Dennis Santana.


So there you go!  Enjoy the stretch run and the Trade Deadline.  See you again next July!

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #9
The Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the playoffs, got hot at the right time, and rode that wave all the way to the World Series.  Will 2023 show a repeat of that success?


#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round
MIH - Bryce Harper
MIP - Ranger Suarez
PTW - Bryson Stott

2022 Results
#2 - 87-75, 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost World Series
Highest WAR (Position) - J.T. Realmuto
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Aaron Nola
The Philadelphia Phillies saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in 2022.  After a disappointing start, the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi.  New manager Rob Thomson turned the whole season around and helped them get that last Wild Card spot.  Bryce Harper got injured and didn't play a full season.  He was able to bat in the postseason, but that was it.  Then, they made it all the way to the World Series before finally losing to the Astros.  It was ultimately a successful season in Philly, even though it didn't really start that way.


Additions / Subtractions
Clubs run by Dave Dombrowski love to spend money, and that fact was shown this offseason.  The Phillies may have spent more than anyone else, first landing what many thought was the grand prize of free agency, shortstop Trea Turner.  However, they didn't stop there.  They also brought in starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm.  They traded for reliver Gregory Soto and signed reliever Craig Kimbrel.  To add depth, they signed utilityman Josh Harrison.  They did lose a few from their roster, like Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Noah Syndergaard, and David Robertson.  That's a lot of turnover for a pennant-winning roster, but it's safe to say most of these moves were upgrades.


Most Important Hitter
Nick Castellanos
The biggest roster impact heading into the 2023 season might be Bryce Harper's offseason surgery costing him possibly the first half of the season.  The Phillies will be looking for someone to pick up the production in the lineup.  A great candidate for that would be Nick Castellanos.  One of the prizes for the Phillies in last year's offseason, Castellanos's 2022 season was not up to his 5 year, $100 million payday.  His 95 OPS+ was his worst OPS+ of his career, and his first under 100 since 2015.  He had an All Star season in 2021 that included a 12th place MVP finish and a Silver Slugger; definitely the best season of his career.  The question is if he can return to that 2021 level.  The Phillies could sure use a big year from Castellanos to compensate for the loss of Harper for the start of the season.


Most Important Pitcher
Zack Wheeler
The Phillies have several top end starters, but when they are all at their best, Zack Wheeler is the top of the class.  The prize of the 2020 offseason free agent class, Wheeler lived up to the contract in 2021, leading the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting and even getting some MVP votes.  Last season saw a few bumps along the way as he was not able to make all his starts.  According to ERA+, he wasn't that much worse (150 in 2021, 144 in 2022), but his drop off in production was felt.  If he can regain his 2021 production, then this rotation goes from really good to elite.


Prospect to Watch
Andrew Painter
When you are so focused on winning in the here and now, the farm system usually suffers.  The Phillies farm system is ranked in the bottom third of the league, despite that system being headlined by Andrew Painter.  Painter is the #6 prospect in the Top 100 and the top pitching prospect in the league.  Painter is a unicorn in some ways.  Drafted in the first round in 2021 out of high school, Painter is knocking on the door of the majors at just 19 years old.  It takes a special talent to advance that quickly, but this 6'7" righty is that.  He entered camp with a realistic shot at making the starting rotation on Opening Day, but a UCL sprain early on in camp has everyone nervous.  At best, it will delay his debut till mid-season.  At worst, he will need Tommy John surgery and we might not see him pitch till 2025.  Everyone is hoping for the former, especially since the Phillies were counting on him to bring a spark to their rotation this season.


2023 Prediction
2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round
The Phillies are too good to have too much of a World Series hangover.  At the same time, there are several questions entering the season that could keep them from advancing too far.  The Phillies are definitely in the category of "superteam" with the amount of money they have spent over the years.  With that said, the success of the Phillies this season feels directly tied to how well they can withstand the absence of Bryce Harper.  They are hoping he can return to the lineup by the end of May, but he may be relegated to DH all season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Their young spark in the rotation might be lost before the year even starts.  Like with any team in the top ten, they could end up winning the whole thing, but I don't think the stars are aligned quite right for the Phillies in 2023.


Fearless Prediction
Trea Turner will be a 30/30 player in 2023.
One of the most dynamic athletes in all of baseball, Trea Turner got a huge payday this offseason to return to the east coast.  Who cares how much it cost, the Phillies scored big picking him up to be their their shortstop for the next 11 seasons.  Turner seems to be a prime candidate to have a 30/30 season (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases).  This feat has happened 65 times in MLB history, most recently in 2021 by Cedric Mullins of the Orioles.  Turner has come close, but he has never reached these two marks at the same time before, the closest being 2021 when he had 28 homers and 32 steals.  That was also the last time he changed teams.  Look for him to once again show off for his new team with a career best season.


Sunday, March 21, 2021

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Philadelphia Phillies

 #14
The Philadelphia Phillies extended their playoff drought in 2020 despite having a talented roster built to win now.  Will 2021 finally see them break through to the postseason and fulfill the promise of their talent?

#4 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS
MIH - Andrew McCutchen
MIP - Zack Wheeler
PTW - Alec Bohm

2020 Results
#18 - 28-32, 3rd in NL East
Every year, I think it's time for the Phillies to break out and make a deep run in the playoffs, and every year they disappoint me.  They keep adding elite pieces, and last year it was the addition of manager Joe Girardi.  There didn't seem to be much difference on the field though.  My highlighted players even had great years.  Andrew McCutchen played well.  Not great, but good.  Zack Wheeler was their best player.  Alec Bohm emerged as their everyday third baseman and a future star.  With all that said, they still feel well short.

Additions / Subtractions
The Phillies for the most part made news this offseason in their desire to change as little as possible.  They re-signed star free agents J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius.  They brought in veteran starters Matt Moore and Chase Anderson to replace departing Jake Arrieta.  The one upgrade they made was closer Archie Bradley being brought in.  Other than that, their roster is exactly the same as 2020.

Most Important Hitter
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper is entering year 3 of his 13 year megadeal he signed with the Phillies.  This deal is paying him like one of the top 5-10 best players in the league.  The problem with that is his production on the field has yet to reach the promise of his paycheck.  In the 5 seasons since his MVP in 2015 where he nearly posted a 10 WAR season, he has only posted two 4 WAR seasons (the rest are under 2), received MVP votes in only one season, and has simply not been able to match his reputation.  The way the Phillies get over the hump and become an elite team in the league is if Bryce Harper gets back to being an elite player.  If Harper is just good, they Phillies will be just good.

Most Important Pitcher
Archie Bradley
The bullpen has been one of the areas that has ruined many a recent Phillies' season.  Their starting pitching has been solid, led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.  They just can't hold a lead.  Archie Bradley is the latest arm to be brought in to try and stabilize the end of games for the Phillies.  He has been a solid reliever everywhere he has pitched.  If he is able to continue to show the consistency he has displayed throughout his career, he might finally be the answer for the Phillies' bullpen.

Prospect to Watch
Mickey Moniak
The Phillies have a lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 prospects.  Although one of those prospects (starting pitcher Spencer Howard) should have a big league impact in 2021, the most fascinating prospect to watch is Mickey Moniak.  Although only the 12th ranked prospect in the Phillies' system, what makes him intriguing is the fact that he was the #1 overall pick in the 2016 Draft.  Drafted straight out of high school, this outfielder has struggled to develop in the minors.  In 2020, he finally made his big league debut, appearing in 8 games.  Now he is competing for a roster spot and a possible starting job in centerfield.  He is still only 22 years old.  There is still the talent of a #1 overall pick in there.  If he gets his shot, it will be fascinating to watch if he shows more of that promise than he has been able to display at other levels of the organization.

2021 Prediction
4th in NL East
I have predicted the Phillies to win this division the last two seasons.  Their talent is good enough to be a playoff team.  The problem is they are playing in what might be the toughest division in league history.  Will I be surprised if they make the playoffs?  No.  However, I am done predicting it until I see it.

Fearless Prediction
Joe Girardi will be fired after the season.
The Phillies have built a roster to win now.  They brought in a manager in Joe Girardi before last season to put them over the hump and get them to the playoffs.  These windows for teams to win are not open very long.  If it doesn't work this season, the Phillies may be looking for something drastic to change.  Too many players are getting paid too much for too long, and even though Joe Girardi is one of the most respected men in all of baseball, he might be the one to change.


Sunday, March 18, 2018

2018 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#21

The New York Mets fought through injuries in 2017 to have a poor season in a poor division.  Will a return of some key pieces and a change in manager bring about a better result in 2018?

2017 Predictions
2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS
Noah Syndergaard will win the NL Cy Young.

2017 Results
70-92, 4th in NL East

The Mets have built their roster on a dynamic young pitching staff with just enough offense to support it.  Well, when only one of their five aces makes more than 20 starts in the season (including only 7 stars from Noah Syndergaard, the best of the bunch), it sets the team up for failure.  When Thor went down early in the season, obviously my prediction went out the window with his season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Mets made some very interesting moves over the offseason.  First, after trading away Jay Bruce to the Indians mid-season last year, the Mets were able to bring him back.  Then they brought in veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier to man the corner infield spots.  They brought in starter Jason Vargas to bring some stability to their oft-injured rotation.  The biggest move the Mets made was letting manager Terry Collins go and bringing in Mickey Callaway, former pitching coach of the Indians, as their new manager.

Most Important Hitter
Yoenis Cespedes

Like I said, their team is built around their pitching.  However, ever since the Mets traded for Cespedes in 2015, their offense has lived and died with his production.  When he is hot, the Mets are hot.  When he is cold, the Mets are cold.  If the Mets are going to have a successful season, Cespedes needs to be MVP caliber.

Most Important Pitcher
Noah Syndergaard

Before his injury last season, Noah Syndergaard had been emerging as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.  As such an imposing figure on the mound and with such electric stuff, it is easy to see why Thor is so good.  The Mets are expecting Syndergaard to be back to the freak he was before the injury, and the early returns from Spring Training say he is.  An injury-free season from Thor will make for a much better season for the Mets.

Prospect to Watch
Marcos Molina

One problem with the Mets is they currently have a poor farm system.  No players in their farm system are in baseball's Top 100 prospects, and none of their top 7 prospects are expected to make their debuts in the big leagues in the next year or two.  The best prospect that is closest to the Show is Marcos Molina, a 23 year old Dominican pitcher.  A recent elbow injury derailed some of his progress, and he has a lot of pitchers on the roster in front of him, but a lively arm like his might be able to help out the bullpen down the stretch.

2018 Prediction
4th in AL East

I do not have high hopes for the Mets this year.  A manager that is pitching-centric will help, but I don't know if we will ever see the Syndergaard/deGrom/Harvey/Matz/Wheeler rotation dominate the league like everyone thought they would when they first debuted.  Their offense is relying on comeback years from some aging veterans.  The arms are not going to stay healthy.  Add that to the fact that some of the other teams in the division have young cores that are ready to explode onto the scene, and the Mets will struggle to gain ground.  2018 could be entertaining for the Mets, but not successful.

Fearless Prediction
The Mets rotation will not see one trip through feature Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler again.

At this point, it looks like it would take an injury from Jason Vargas for this to happen in 2018 (and all of them to get and remain healthy).  It is easy to see a scenario where guys like Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler end up traded or on other rosters by the end of the season.  With other starters like Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in the fold, they are definitely starting pitcher wealthy and could part with some to build up the struggling farm system.  This dream rotation they built seems to be over before it ever really got started.  The encouraging part is the Mets might be better off without it.

Monday, April 3, 2017

2017 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#7

The New York Mets have carried their powerful young starting rotation to the playoffs the last two seasons, almost winning it all in 2015.  Will 2017 bring enough offense to balance their pitching to make another deep run?

My 2016 Predictions
1st in NL East, lose in NLCS
One of the Mets' five aces will go down with Tommy John surgery in 2016.

2016 Results
87-75, 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game
My predictions are a lot more accurate than they appear at first glance.  I had their 2016 playoff run coming to an end at the hands of the Giants.  The only difference is they lost to the Giants in the Wild Card Game instead of the NLCS.  Regardless, it was still a very successful follow-up season for a young team after a World Series run the year before.  As for my Fearless Prediction, fortunately none of their great young starting pitchers went down with Tommy John.  With that said, Noah Syndergaard was the only one that pitched a full season.  Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz dealt with different injuries throughout the season, and Zack Wheeler waited till 2017 to make his comeback from Tommy John.

Additions / Subtractions
The Mets are entering 2017 with almost the exact same roster they ended 2016 with.  In fact, the only real change from the start of 2016 is the mid-season deal they made for Jay Bruce.  The other difference is letting veteran Bartolo Colon leave so the youngsters can have the rotation to themselves.

Most Important Hitter
Jay Bruce
The Mets brought Jay Bruce over last season to help provide some pop with Yoenis Cespedes in the middle of the order.  Instead, Bruce had a terrible run over the last few months, hitting just .219 with 8 home runs and 19 RBI's in 50 games.  The Mets considered trading Bruce again in the offseason, but they instead are banking on Bruce to return to his All Star level he showed with the Reds.  He could be the key to waking up a mediocre offense.

Most Important Pitcher
Noah Syndergaard
Every year, the Mets seem to have a different pitcher emerge as the best pitcher of the staff.  In 2013, it was Matt Harvey.  In 2015, it was Jacob deGrom.  In 2016, it was Noah Syndergaard.  Like I said before, Syndergaard was the only one of the Mets' youngsters to pitch a full season.  He is also the only one that hasn't had any injury issues so far in his career.  Before this season starts, one of their aces (Matz) is already on the DL.  They need someone to bring some stability to the staff and string together consecutive strong seasons.  Syndergaard looks to be the one that has the best opportunity to do just that.

Player to Watch
Amed Rosario
The Mets' infield is getting old.  Neil Walker is 31, Asdrubal Cabrera is 31, David Wright is 34 (when he can play), and Jose Reyes is 34 (when Wright doesn't play).  One of these guys is going to lose their job at some point this season to 21 year old prospect Amed Rosario.  Ranked the 5th best prospect in baseball, Rosario is a shortstop by trade, however he could give a spark at any infield position needed this season.  He might be the catalyst for a late season run towards the playoffs.

2017 Prediction
2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS
The Mets have so much elite pitching, they are near guaranteed to have a spot in the playoffs.  Even if guys get hurt, they have starters waiting for a shot to show that they belong as well.  I see them getting into that Wild Card Game again this season.  This time, they won't get MadBum'ed and make it to the NLDS where their run will come to an end.  They won't get over the hump until the offense get and upgrade.

Fearless Prediction
Noah Syndergaard will win the NL Cy Young.
It is hard to go against Clayton Kershaw for this award, who is one of the greatest pitchers this game has ever seen.  However, Thor has the potential to join him in that category.  This is the year where the Mets' rotation gets that stability it needs as Syndergaard takes his place among the game's elite.