#9
The Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the playoffs, got hot at the right time, and rode that wave all the way to the World Series. Will 2023 show a repeat of that success?
#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round
MIH - Bryce Harper
MIP - Ranger Suarez
PTW - Bryson Stott
2022 Results
#2 - 87-75, 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost World Series
Highest WAR (Position) - J.T. Realmuto
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Aaron Nola
The Philadelphia Phillies saw the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in 2022. After a disappointing start, the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi. New manager Rob Thomson turned the whole season around and helped them get that last Wild Card spot. Bryce Harper got injured and didn't play a full season. He was able to bat in the postseason, but that was it. Then, they made it all the way to the World Series before finally losing to the Astros. It was ultimately a successful season in Philly, even though it didn't really start that way.
Additions / Subtractions
Clubs run by Dave Dombrowski love to spend money, and that fact was shown this offseason. The Phillies may have spent more than anyone else, first landing what many thought was the grand prize of free agency, shortstop Trea Turner. However, they didn't stop there. They also brought in starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. They traded for reliver Gregory Soto and signed reliever Craig Kimbrel. To add depth, they signed utilityman Josh Harrison. They did lose a few from their roster, like Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Noah Syndergaard, and David Robertson. That's a lot of turnover for a pennant-winning roster, but it's safe to say most of these moves were upgrades.
Most Important Hitter
Nick Castellanos
The biggest roster impact heading into the 2023 season might be Bryce Harper's offseason surgery costing him possibly the first half of the season. The Phillies will be looking for someone to pick up the production in the lineup. A great candidate for that would be Nick Castellanos. One of the prizes for the Phillies in last year's offseason, Castellanos's 2022 season was not up to his 5 year, $100 million payday. His 95 OPS+ was his worst OPS+ of his career, and his first under 100 since 2015. He had an All Star season in 2021 that included a 12th place MVP finish and a Silver Slugger; definitely the best season of his career. The question is if he can return to that 2021 level. The Phillies could sure use a big year from Castellanos to compensate for the loss of Harper for the start of the season.
Most Important Pitcher
Zack Wheeler
The Phillies have several top end starters, but when they are all at their best, Zack Wheeler is the top of the class. The prize of the 2020 offseason free agent class, Wheeler lived up to the contract in 2021, leading the league in complete games, shutouts, innings pitched, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting and even getting some MVP votes. Last season saw a few bumps along the way as he was not able to make all his starts. According to ERA+, he wasn't that much worse (150 in 2021, 144 in 2022), but his drop off in production was felt. If he can regain his 2021 production, then this rotation goes from really good to elite.
Prospect to Watch
Andrew Painter
When you are so focused on winning in the here and now, the farm system usually suffers. The Phillies farm system is ranked in the bottom third of the league, despite that system being headlined by Andrew Painter. Painter is the #6 prospect in the Top 100 and the top pitching prospect in the league. Painter is a unicorn in some ways. Drafted in the first round in 2021 out of high school, Painter is knocking on the door of the majors at just 19 years old. It takes a special talent to advance that quickly, but this 6'7" righty is that. He entered camp with a realistic shot at making the starting rotation on Opening Day, but a UCL sprain early on in camp has everyone nervous. At best, it will delay his debut till mid-season. At worst, he will need Tommy John surgery and we might not see him pitch till 2025. Everyone is hoping for the former, especially since the Phillies were counting on him to bring a spark to their rotation this season.
2023 Prediction
2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round
The Phillies are too good to have too much of a World Series hangover. At the same time, there are several questions entering the season that could keep them from advancing too far. The Phillies are definitely in the category of "superteam" with the amount of money they have spent over the years. With that said, the success of the Phillies this season feels directly tied to how well they can withstand the absence of Bryce Harper. They are hoping he can return to the lineup by the end of May, but he may be relegated to DH all season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Their young spark in the rotation might be lost before the year even starts. Like with any team in the top ten, they could end up winning the whole thing, but I don't think the stars are aligned quite right for the Phillies in 2023.
Fearless Prediction
Trea Turner will be a 30/30 player in 2023.
One of the most dynamic athletes in all of baseball, Trea Turner got a huge payday this offseason to return to the east coast. Who cares how much it cost, the Phillies scored big picking him up to be their their shortstop for the next 11 seasons. Turner seems to be a prime candidate to have a 30/30 season (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases). This feat has happened 65 times in MLB history, most recently in 2021 by Cedric Mullins of the Orioles. Turner has come close, but he has never reached these two marks at the same time before, the closest being 2021 when he had 28 homers and 32 steals. That was also the last time he changed teams. Look for him to once again show off for his new team with a career best season.
