#28
Today was supposed to be Opening Day, and it really makes me sad that we are reminded more how this worldwide quarantine is affecting our lives than celebrating one of my favorite days of the entire calendar. However, the day will come, and when it does it will mean so much more than ever before. In the meantime, let's keep going with my pre-season power rankings and previews. Today's spotlight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates. After peaking in the mid-2010's, there is very little left of those playoff teams. Will 2020 make them competitive again, or will it continue their downward trend?
#23 - 5th in NL Central
MIH: Josh Bell
MIP: Chris Archer
PTW: Ke'Bryan Hayes
FP: This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.
2019 Results
#24 - 69-93, 5th in NL Central
When all is said and done, the Pirates might be my greatest triumph in prognosticating the 2019 season. I correctly predicted their cellar finish in their division, missing their overall rank by only one spot (actual rank determined by draft position). I said Josh Bell was their most important hitter, and he had the best season of his young career, hitting 37 homers with 116 RBI's with a 143 OPS+ and his first All Star appearance. Chris Archer was indeed an important piece in their pitching staff, but after a career worst season in 2018, he followed it up with an even worse season in 2019 in his first full season in Pittsburgh. It is looking like this might be one of the most lopsided trades of the decade (the Pirates gave up up-and-coming outfield Austin Meadows, potential ace Tyler Glasnow, and former first round pitcher Shane Baz to the Rays to get Archer). I thought Ke'Bryan Hayes might get an accelerated track to the big leagues in 2019, but his debut will probably come this year instead. Then my fearless prediction came true. Clint Hurdle, the man who took the Pirates back to the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla and one of the most respected managers in baseball, was fired after the season. I kinda nailed what the 2019 season for the Pirates was going to be!
Additions / Subtractions
The biggest addition for the Pirates this offseason was their new manager Derek Shelton, coming over from Minnesota where he was the bench coach. Outside of some minor additions like pitcher Derek Holland and outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Guillermo Heredia, that is about it for what has come in to the organization. The biggest subtraction this offseason was the trade of Starling Marte, the face of their franchise since Andrew McCutchen left a few years ago.
Most Important Hitter
Bryan Reynolds
Outside of Josh Bell's All Star season, the two biggest bright spots for the Pirates in 2019 were rookies Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman. These two unknowns quickly became two of the team's best players, finishing the season as the Pirates' two top players in terms of WAR (4.1 for Reynolds, 3.1 for Newman). Reynolds was definitely the eye-opener. A former 2nd round pick and the centerpiece of the package that came to Pittsburgh in the Andrew McCutchen trade with the Giants in 2018, Reynolds made his debut in April and never looked back. He hit .314 with 16 homers and 68 RBI's in 134 games, rounding out to a 131 OPS+ and finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year vote behind phenoms like Pete Alonso, Mike Soroka, and Fernando Tatis Jr. The Pirates see Reynolds (and Newman) as the start of their new wave of great young talent. If he takes another leap forward like he did last season, he will be an All Star in 2020 and the face of the franchise.
Most Important Pitcher
Chris Archer
I cannot emphasize enough how important it is that the Pirates get something out of Chris Archer. A player that was once one of the brightest young arms in the game, Archer is entering his age 31 season looking like his career is almost over. In 2019, he went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and an 82 ERA+, well below average. The Pirates paid for Archer as an ace and a top 10 pitcher in the game. He has been one of their worst starters since he has arrived. In a move that the Pirates thought was building towards a future cornerstone of their next wave of talent, they are just hoping Archer shows some flashes of his younger self to give him some trade value in his contract year. Otherwise, they will have given up three top-tier prospects (two already splashing in the big leagues) for basically no production.
Prospect to Watch
Mitch Keller
The Pirates have three players in baseball's top 100 prospects, with two expected to be ready to make a major league impact in 2020. One is Ke'Bryan Hayes who I mentioned last year. The other is pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller made his big league debut in 2019 and barely stayed under the innings limit to still be considered a "prospect," starting 11 games with mediocre results (1-5, 7.13 ERA), however don't be turned off by the early results. He has a mid to upper 90's fastball with a nasty curve and slider. He started the 2018 Futures Game, showing how the industry recognizes his star potential. While other rookies will be looked at to get experience and show what they can do, Keller might have some added pressure entering the Pirates' rotation day one. First, he has had his debut and got a decent amount of exposure to the big leagues last year. Second, and most importantly, with a floundering Chris Archer and an injured Jameson Taillon (out for probably all of 2020 with Tommy John), the Pirates need Keller to be more than just a rookie trying to find his way. Their success in 2020 is going to be closely tied to Keller's success, perhaps more so than any other rookie in the league.
2020 Prediction
5th in NL Central
This was one of the easiest predictions I had to make. The Pirates are in a rebuild and have some serious potential moving forward. However, this season is going to be rough simply because the other four teams in their division are all legit playoff contenders. In fact, very few teams in the National League would be labeled as "rebuilding." It's possible the Pirates take some big steps forward and finish with a similar or worse record just because of the level of competition.
Fearless Prediction
Chris Archer will be traded before the end of the season for one mid-level prospect.
I don't mean to obsess over this storyline, but I find it the most interesting part of what is happening in Pittsburgh right now. Chris Archer will not be a part of the Pirates organization the next time they are competitive. If that is the case, they need to try and separate themselves as soon as possible. I have always liked Archer, and I will be rooting for him to have a rebound season, but it is starting to remind me of rooting for Felix Hernandez to bounce back the last couple seasons ... it just kept getting worse. However, if Archer does bounce back, and he is able to show signs he could return to something resembling the ace he was in Tampa, the Pirates should unload him for whatever prospects they can get. He does have a club option for 2021 at $11 million, but I don't see that being picked up. The Pirates will be buying at the peak and selling at the basement, but it is all they have. Let's just hope Archer is able to pitch well enough to make him valuable enough to be sold.
No comments:
Post a Comment