We finally made it! Here we are with the nominations for the 2021 films, which absolutely cemented my January 2021 predictions as the most prophetic in Oscar history! Check out my immediate reactions to this year’s batshit nominations, a list of my annual top 10 coolest first-time nominees, my prediction percentages, and all the snubs y’all wanna read about!
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted: 9 for 10
Reactions: This is one of the most varied groups that I have seen for Best Picture. Nightmare Alley seems like it is out of nowhere. Other than Ford v Ferrari, I can’t really remember a movie getting a Best Picture nomination without any major category nomination. Drive My Car is the inspired choice. The Academy is clearly a much more international group, and these types of nominations are going to become more common, which is fantastic. Don’t Look Up was one of the worst movies in years, and I cannot believe it really got in here, but it is what it is. Adam McKay is just beloved for some reason. My predictions were pretty close. I only missed Nightmare Alley in favor of tick, tick…BOOM!.
Preliminary prediction: The Power of the Dog
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I have never seen a more confusing snub given the overall nomination landscape than Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I had him getting nominated in place of Paul Thomas Anderson. This is a really strong group, but only Hamaguchi and Campion really establish the spirit of what the category is (or used to be). This is now a category that is just a reflection of what the favorite films in the group are. It has almost become what the Best Film Editing category once was. This is absolutely locked up, unless something drastic happens in the next month.
Preliminary prediction: Jane Campion
BEST ACTOR
Andrew Garfield - tick, tick…BOOM!
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
Will Smith - King Richard
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Bardem because I stubbornly kept Peter Dinklage for Cyrano in my predictions. I guess the Academy members really hadn’t seen the film, which is unfortunate. Bardem’s nomination is sort of an abomination, but it is clear that the actors loved the movie. This is a real three horse race with Smith, Garfield, and Cumberbatch vying for the Oscar. The SAG and Critics Choice will really help us figure this one out. It is the first time that there is no first-time nominee in the category since 1980. My shocker mention was Bradley Cooper for Nightmare Alley, which given the BP nomination, actually seems like something that could and should have happened.
Preliminary prediction: Andrew Garfield
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers
Kristen Stewart - Spencer
Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Lady Gaga getting in (like everyone else..she was actually the betting favorite after the BAFTA nominations). I missed Penelope Cruz, which I knew was a real possibility. They adore Almodovar. This category also has an uncertain winner. Kidman is probably the favorite, but Stewart can start her winning tour here. Colman just won, but she keeps winning Emmys. Chastain is the dark horse because she is the one who has been nominated before and never won, but that movie needs to do something to get back into the conversation.
Preliminary prediction: Nicole Kidman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur - CODA
JK Simmons - Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: Ok they really loved the Ricardo actors. JK Simmons, really? Ok well I missed that and Plemons (my shocker nom mention) in place of Bradley Cooper and my locked-in one Jared Leto. I at least take solace in the fact that they hated House of Gucci as much as I did. Smit-McPhee has won virtually every award so far, but none of the televised ones have happened yet. I think Hinds could walk away with it, or Kotsur in a very Alan Arkin-Little Miss Sunshine kind of way, but I would be foolish to not pick the favorite.
Preliminary prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter
Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
Judi Dench - Belfast
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: This was the first category that got announced, and wow… Buckley was my shocker nom mention, which makes me happy. That was actually my best effort in that gimmick maybe ever. Dame Judi Dench was my winner prediction in October, and she has been rightfully forgotten since, but the Academy can’t resist. I also thought King Richard could be a little weak, so I had Ellis missing. I had in Catriona Balfe (who was nominated at every single precursor), Ruth Negga, and my insane stab of Ann Dowd for Mass. This category is on drugs. At least we know DeBose is winning…right? If Dunst starts taking some awards then The Power of the Dog could be the biggest Oscar heavyweight since what On the Waterfront?
Preliminary prediction: Ariana DeBose
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast
King Richard
The Worst Person in the World
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed another lock here when Aaron Sorkin missed for Being the Ricardos (but all his actors got in??). He also missed his screenplay nomination despite multiple acting noms for Steve Jobs, but three makes this movie only similar to The Master, which is interesting company to be in, which also had similarly very obvious acting performances. I missed The Worst Person in the World, which is an amazing choice. I have always adored Joaquim Trier’s films. The international flavor of the nominations is real. This category is all over the place. I want to say that Branagh could lose, which would mean it is PTA getting his first or McKay getting his second. Let’s go PTA!
Preliminary prediction: Licorice Pizza
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: Nothing to see here. This had to be everyone’s predicted five. The Academy hates musicals and plays getting screenplay nominations. This is a sophisticated group, an awesome nomination for Maggie Gyllenhaal, and the second foreign screenplay. I love it, but this category can only go one way…
Preliminary prediction: The Power of the Dog
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I took an artsy stab with The Green Knight getting in over Nightmare Alley. This is actually a really cool list. There were other black-and-white films they could have mentioned, but they resisted for the first time in forever. The predicted winners from here on out are going to get a little boring because most everything is going to Dune (which is why the Director snub is so weird).
Preliminary prediction: Dune
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Like almost every other prognosticator, I had The French Dispatch in there (completely shut out, by the way). I missed The Power of the Dog, which cements that film as a juggernaut. Yes, it is period production design, but western-ish settings are never recognized here. This shows the absolute adoration that the Academy voters have for the craft of Campion’s masterpiece. This is going to Dune, though. This category tends to skew to the Visual Effects winner (also Dune) when it is heavy CGI sets.
Preliminary prediction: Dune
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
West Side Story
Cyrano
Nightmare Alley
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I foolishly kept in Spencer, and I had the confusing miss of House of Gucci in place of Cyrano and Nightmare Alley. This is an interesting group. The costumes are all over the place, but the one winner has to be the fashion movie (evidently not Gucci).
Preliminary prediction: Cruella
BEST SOUND
Belfast
No Time to Die
West Side Story
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: Here I left off Belfast in place of tick, tick…BOOM!, which I’m ok with. That is a bizarre choice, but it also shows the strength of Belfast’s support. This should probably be Dune winning, but musicals used to surprise when the category was split. Watch out for West Side Story here.
Preliminary prediction: Dune
BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
tick, tick…BOOM!
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed tick, tick…BOOM! and King Richard. Both of those are weird. I know the former had a lot of editing, but the latter implies heavy support for the crowd-pleaser. I had in Belfast and West Side Story. Those misses imply lack of passion for the films, which is completely in contrast to the previous couple categories. The Power of the Dog is winning Best Picture. This award will not go there, though. Everyone is predicting Dune, but I have this suspicion that this will go to the movie with the most obvious editing of the last 10 years.
Preliminary prediction: Don’t Look Up
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Free Guy
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I missed Spider-Man, Free Guy, and No Time to Die. The first one had lame effects, the second one I haven’t seen but WTF, and the Bond films never really show up here because they are more practical effects. I had in The Matrix, Godzilla vs Kong, and Eternals. Yeah, it’s these categories that I kinda suck at.
Preliminary prediction: Dune
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Cruella
House of Gucci
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I put in The Suicide Squad (mainly because the first one was mentioned here) and I missed Coming 2 America. Ok, well they love old man prosthetic makeup effects. I will never miss one of these again, like The 100 Year Old Man Who Stepped Out the Window, A Man Called Ove, Bad Grandpa even. This category is intriguing. Under normal circumstances, it would go the crazy makeup in House of Gucci, but since the Academy hated the movie, they could look elsewhere. Dune would be another traditional choice, but sometimes, it gets linked to Costumes. Screw it, I got a month to change this.
Preliminary prediction: Cruella
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Down to Joy” - Belfast
“Somehow You Do” - Four Good Days
“No Time to Die” - No Time to Die
“Dos Oruguitas” - Encanto
“Be Alive” - King Richard
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: This was a pretty easy list to come up with. We have Beyonce, Billie Eilish, Diane Warren token nomination, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Van Morrison. That is the most star-studded Best Original Song category of all time. And it came at the expense of Kid Cudi (x2) and Ariana Grande.
Preliminary prediction: No Time to Die
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up
Encanto
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Parallel Mothers
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had in The French Dispatch and Spencer in place of Encanto and Don’t Look Up, both of which are bizarre choices. This is probably going to Dune, but I would like to think Parallel Mothers could upset it. It was one of the coolest original scores I have heard in recent memory.
Preliminary prediction: Dune
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Flee
Writing with Fire
Attica
Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Predicted: 1 for 5
Reactions: This category is all over the place. I suck at this. I had Procession, In the Same Breath, The Velvet Underground, and The Rescue, three of which were close to locks. I only picked correctly Summer of Soul, which was the trendiest snub pick in the slate. Since it is the only real contender in the group, Questlove will be an Oscar winner.
Preliminary prediction: Summer of Soul
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Drive My Car
Lunana: a Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Flee
The Hand of God
Predicted: 2 for 5
Reactions: I have never heard of Lunana. I also missed Flee and The Hand of God (I’m an idiot), and I had in Prayers for the Stolen, Spain’s The Good Boss, and A Hero. This is another category that I don’t get, but the winner is obvious.
Preliminary prediction: Drive My Car
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Flee
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I went with the traditional artsy pick with Belle getting in over Raya and the Last Dragon. Ok, Flee got nominated for all three of these. With Waltz with Bashir (a superior movie, by the way), they almost deemed it ineligible for Documentary because it didn’t have actual footage. Flee is really similar, and low-key the animation is kinda bad. I don’t get how it could get in all three categories. Bashir only got Best Foreign Language Film. Oh well, whatever. I know Honeyland and Collective went home empty handed, but they weren’t animated. I think it upsets Pixar and Encanto.
Preliminary prediction: Flee
Overall predictions: 74/105; 70.5% (74.8% in 2021)
Without the last 5 categories: 59/80; 73.8% (76.9% in 2021)
On the Big 8 categories: 35/45; 77.8% (81.4% in 2021)
So I took a step back, thanks to that stupid Supporting Actress debacle. Overall, I could have done a lot worse. Traditionally, I do a lot worse in the bottom categories, but I stayed somewhat consistent throughout.
10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES
1. Jesse Plemons
2. Beyonce
3. Kristen Stewart
4. Billie Eilish / Finneas O’Connell
5. Kirsten Dunst
6. Joaquim Trier
7. Jessie Buckley
8. Questlove
9. Kodi Smit-McPhee
10. Troy Kotsur
10 WORST SNUBS
1. Nicolas Cage for Best Actor
2. The cast of Mass for Best Supporting Actor / Best Supporting Actress
3. Denis Villeneuve for Best Director
4. Jared Leto for Best Supporting Actor
5. “Guns Go Bang” for Best Original Song
6. The Green Knight for Best Cinematography
7. Alana Haim for Best Actress
8. Titane for Best International Feature (Petite Maman if it was submitted by France)
9. Ruth Negga for Best Supporting Actress / Tessa Thompson for Best Actress
10. Simon Rex for Best Actor
IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…
1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. West Side Story
4. CODA
5. Don’t Look Up
What did you think of this year’s nominees? Did you like the guaranteed 10 Best Picture nominees? How much do you miss Lady Gaga and Nicolas Cage from the nominated groups? How much does Don’t Look Up suck? Let me know in the comments! And as always, stay tuned for our 14th Annual Oscar Challenge!
