2022 Oscar Predictions: Final

 We finally have some clarity on the Oscar race. The Guilds have all spoken, and we now know what this race looks like…sorta. The acting races are still in flux after seeing Kristen Stewart get the snub as the previous frontrunner. I sorta saw this happening, but not from the SAG. The PGA put out a rather unimaginative list. The DGA made it clear which movies are truly beloved. The BAFTA nominations can’t really be taken seriously (Denzel Washington has NEVER been nominated by BAFTA) because of their screwy nominating committee, but their longlists are telling. The calendar this year is really strange since we haven’t even gotten the Critics Choice Awards yet. We haven’t had a single televised awards show, and we aren’t going to get one before the nominations. Typically the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice would have already helped us narrow down some things, but the Globes were a no-show quite literally, the BFCA delayed until March, and SAG isn’t until the end of February. This is one of the most difficult Oscar slates to navigate, but here were my final predictions for the nominations that will be announced February 8th!

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten

1. The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) - LOCK

2. Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) - LOCK

3. West Side Story (Steven Spielberg) - LOCK

4. Dune (Denis Villeneuve) - LOCK

5. Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) - LOCK

6. CODA (Sian Leder) - LOCK

7. Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay) - The movie is one of the most seen of the entire year (supposedly), and despite it being an abomination, it is making waves. The hammering message is there, and it is like catnip for brainless Hollywood elites. I think it is in, but it would be one of the worst reviewed films (under 50% on Metacritic) nominated for Best Picture in recent memory. This would be 3 straight for McKay.

8. King Richard (Reinaldo Marcus Green) - I really never felt the passion for the story. Nobody really saw it in theaters, which is just baffling considering Will Smith’s box office track record, but the HBO Max release ensured everyone can see it. It is The Blind Side in a lot of ways, which can get nominated, but there are more prestigious and Oscary movies nipping at its heels.

9. Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi) - It is almost unanimously the most impressive and intoxicating movie of the year. It is not the typical Oscar thing at all, but the precursor love and the critics wins are all pointing to this transferring over. It would still technically be a surprise, but the international membership of the Academy is making these types of nominations much more common.

10. tick, tick…BOOM! (Lin-Manuel Miranda) - It has defied all expectations since its release. Everyone is in love with Miranda, and this is the one thing that everyone can get behind. It is a non-traditional musical, and it is also a biopic. Everyone watched it and was all ecstatic about it, or at the very least liked it. Having no detractors makes a difference when you have the preferential ballot. The PGA nomination was the kicker.

Others in contention

11. Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) - This was also nominated at the PGA, mainly because it is a Hollywood film about Hollywood. The PGA is composed of TV producers too, so that makes material about Lucille Ball much more easily lovable. It is probably a safer bet than my #9 and #10, but the Academy has actually been lukewarm on Sorkin. His last two films, while hits, have underperformed.

12. The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) - This really depends on how much the Academy still can’t resist the Coens. A Serious Man was even nominated, but this is even more niche than that. Shakespeare is rarely recognized by the Academy for BP, but the crafts in the film are impeccable. If enough people watched it on Apple, then it can get in, but there isn’t the passion for the first place votes.

13. The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) - This is going to end up with a few nominations, and it really should be given a more realistic shot at a Best Picture nomination. It is such a different movie, and it is a brilliant directorial debut. If there is one performance piece that makes it in, it would absolutely be this, but there just doesn’t appear to be enough people in the industry that are head-over-heels for it.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog - LOCK

2. Denis Villeneuve - Dune - LOCK

3. Steven Spielberg - West Side Story - LOCK

4. Kenneth Branagh - Belfast - He really should be a lock, but there is this lingering suspicion with some of my awards prognostication colleagues that he is going to get the Sorkin treatment and be left off. His direction is unique and he is a past nominee in the category, but some of his choices are a little off. He is probably in, but I don’t think he can win the thing unless we are in for an underwhelming The King’s Speech-level sweep in all categories.

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car - The foreign auteur spot appears to be a somewhat yearly thing now. Last year, after only the BAFTA nom by the screwy nominating committee, Thomas Vinterberg got in for a much less impressively directed film, but everyone loved it and loves his films. Hamaguchi clearly had one of the most enveloping and visually impressive directions, and with the Best Picture nomination, this appears to be all but secured.

Others in contention

6. Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza - He got the DGA nomination, but he was the auteur getting in at the last moment in 2017 for Phantom Thread. Licorice Pizza is a clear contender in Best Picture, but the other directors have more passion behind them. If he gets nominated, then I expect the movie to overperform across the board, including at least one win.

7. Joel Coen - The Tragedy of Macbeth - If you want to reward a director completely taking over a movie and doing something you wouldn’t expect, that is Joel Coen. Without the help of his brother for the first time in forever, he made a visually striking movie with killer performances. I expect it to get its due with the artistic and technical categories, but these nominations do happen every once in a while. I just don’t think he can get a lone director nom.

8. Adam McKay - Don’t Look Up - His last two films were nominated here, the Vice one clearly just bringing him along with the love for the film. It is a really similar situation here, but there are even more detractors for this one. His direction is clear and showy and distinguishable, which will get some voters to flock to it, but I can’t predict him to get in.

9. Sian Heder - CODA - This movie has overperformed for an entire year now since it took Sundance by storm in January 2021. She got the DGA First-Time directing nomination. This would be the Jason Reitman nomination for Juno. It is the indie that clearly has everyone’s love and tears, and if she gets nominated, we will all be thrilled for her. That was the exact situation with Reitman, and it secured its place as a real contender to win. We will also have to expect it to eventually take the SAG Ensemble award. This is what is so weird about the timing of the nominations…we know nothing yet.

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Andrew Garfield - tick, tick…BOOM! - LOCK

2. Will Smith - King Richard - LOCK

3. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog - LOCK

4. Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth - LOCK

5. Peter Dinklage - Cyrano - This just seems like one of those nominations that we have accepted isn’t going to happen, but at the last moment he gets in. It would be the Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory nomination. Dinklage seemed to have needed the SAG nomination, but the release strategy has really killed the movie. If enough voters watched the screeners, then the industry love of Dinklage and Joe Wright will push him through.

Others in contention

6. Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos - He got the important nominations, but I just still can’t really see this being called on nominations morning. He is kinda silly in the movie, and it isn’t an Oscar role. I can’t see him getting the first place votes, but he keeps popping up. He is a past winner, so he will have support, but my gut feeling is that he misses.

7. Nicolas Cage - Pig - He is all but out of the race despite being one of the main critical darlings, but he hasn’t gotten any precursor love besides the BFCA. If he gets nominated, I’m going streaking.

8. Joaquin Phoenix - C’mon C’mon - I had previously named this as the biggest lock for a nomination back in October, which I regret. I can’t believe how much this movie has just been brushed aside, especially because Phoenix and his costar Woody Norman are amazing. It is a bit subtle for the Academy’s taste, but still. He will need a miracle to grab one of the five spots.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Bradley Cooper - Nightmare Alley

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos - LOCK

2. Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter - LOCK

3. Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye - LOCK

4. Kristen Stewart - Spencer - After the SAG snub, we all wrote her off. The guilds also basically shafted the amazing artistic and technical achievements of the film. However, at some point the greatness of the one performance overpower those indicators. She is astonishing in the film. This would be the Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night-type of nomination. I just feel like her work is undeniable, regardless how difficult to digest the film is (and how not The Crown it is).

5. Lady Gaga - House of Gucci - She has been nominated for 3 Oscars now, so this is no longer a surprise when she gets shortlisted. She does some of the most acting of the year, along with the rest of her cast. The movie overperformed all awards season (despite the confusing PGA snub). It was a nominee for the SAG ensemble, so the actors are clearly a fan of the film and her work. It is just the safest choice for the fifth slot.

Others in contention

6. Jennifer Hudson - Respect - She got the SAG nomination to resurrect her chances. The movie was overlong and has been largely forgotten, but biopic films should never be overlooked. She is a past winner without a validation nomination, so that could make a difference as well. She has also been doing as much campaigning as possible, and if it is between an unlikable character (which most of the contenders are) and Aretha Franklin, then she could gather some last second votes.

7. Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers - She has been missing consistently, but Almodovar movies are in their own category. His movies overperform on Oscar morning a lot, and she is genuinely fantastic in the film. She missed the BAFTA longlist even, which seems crippling, but she can get past it. It’s been 12 years since her last nomination, which is crazy to think about.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Marion Cotillard - Annette

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog - LOCK

2. Jared Leto - House of Gucci - LOCK

3. Troy Kotsur - CODA - LOCK

4. Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza - The SAG nomination was telling. People love this performance. He is the lasting image and impression that the movie leaves on you, and he is the only real contender for a nomination. In a weird way, I can actually see him winning the thing. He is close to a lock, but for such a short performance, I can’t quite label him that.

5. Ciaran Hinds - Belfast - Both of the supporting players in Belfast missed out on the SAG nomination, which was the biggest jaw-dropper of the announcement, especially since it got the Ensemble nomination. Hinds is a veteran actor who has been doing great unrecognized work for a long time. If one of them is getting in, it really should be him.

Others in contention

6. Mike Faist - West Side Story - He has missed everywhere, but he is still everyone’s favorite part of the film. This would be a shocker (probably more suited for the TLJ-ITVOE spot below), but I weirdly can see it. It would be the Lakeith Stanfield-level of breathtaking nom for all us pundits.

7. Jamie Dornan - Belfast - He has gotten everything he needs except the SAG nomination. If he gets nominated, then this is our Best Picture winner. The movie clearly has the support, but he is battling with his own costar to get the Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook treatment and get swept in with the love of the film

8. Ben Affleck - The Tender Bar - He got the SAG nomination and the Golden Globe nomination. The movie is pretty much written off, but everyone…EVERYONE is rooting for him. There are a contingent of fans who think his The Last Duel performance was worthy as well. If he gets in, then I would be happy for him. He missed the BAFTA longlists, which does hurt his chances.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Ariana DeBose - West Side Story - LOCK

2. Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog - LOCK

3. Ruth Negga - Passing - She has kept popping up in all the right places. The movie is so small and seemingly underseen, but she is undeniably great. I think she is close to being locked in.

4. Catriona Balfe - Belfast - It is crazy that she is the one being mentioned everywhere. She seems like the typical Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game kind of role that is good, but it is never going to win anything. She is being nominated because the movie is beloved.

5. Ann Dowd - Mass - This would be a shocker, since she only has the Critics Choice nomination. However, she is the most beloved character actress in the business, and no one watches Mass without being taken in by at least one of the performances. She is the easiest to nominate of the four. There is sometimes that shocking inclusion. Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, etc that got no precursor nominations and still make it in. Everyone is clamoring for it.

Others in contention

6. Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard - The SAG snub, despite the SAG Ensemble nomination, was confusing. I never sensed the passion for the movie, and I was baffled by her awards mentions thus far. Maybe the circuits are catching up with me. I think she misses here too, and that would be a crippling blow to her costar’s Best Actor win chances.

7. Cate Blanchett - Nightmare Alley or Don’t Look Up - She got BAFTA longlisted for the latter and SAG-nominated for the former. I think this is a complete vote-split situation, since it is clear that her performance in Nightmare Alley is better, but the movie is all but forgotten.

8. Rita Moreno - West Side Story - She has picked up some nominations here and there. It would be a huge surprise now if she gets nominated, but I wouldn’t put it past the nostalgic Oscar voters to give her some love for the same movie that she won for 60 years ago.

Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Belfast - Kenneth Branagh - LOCK

2. Licorice Pizza - Paul Thomas Anderson - LOCK

3. Being the Ricardos - Aaron Sorkin - LOCK

4. Don’t Look Up - Adam McKay, David Sirota - LOCK

5. King Richard - Zach Baylin - There are a lot more accomplished writers in this group. This would be the John Gatins for Flight nomination, although this is Baylin’s first script. It isn’t really a writing achievement, but it is the safest choice for the last spot. This would show an overall love for the film that I am not completely sure is there.

Others in contention

6. The French Dispatch - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness, Jason Schwartzmann - Here we have a chance for the Academy to expand the Coppola Oscar dynasty one more time with Schwartzmann. The movie has been brushed aside all awards season, but Wes Anderson is always in the running. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to hear this called on Tuesday morning.

7. Parallel Mothers - Pedro Almodovar - It is a great screenplay, and he is a past winner in the category. It has been missing where it needs to hit, but he really should have his own set of rules. Never completely overlook the industry’s love of his films. It wasn’t submitted by Spain, so this is the place they would need to reward him.

8. C’mon C’mon - Mike Mills - He has gotten the lone Original Screenplay nomination once before for 20th Century Women. That trend has become more consistent in recent years, but this movie just appears dead.

9. Mass - Fran Kranz - I can dream, right? If Dowd is really getting nominated, then maybe enough people saw it to come to their senses. This should be our winner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion - LOCK

2. Dune - Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth - Science-Fiction films have never been rewarded by the writing branches with all that much consistency. Roth is one of their guys, though. This should be a lock, but this is the most wide open race in the whole slate.

3. The Lost Daughter - Maggie Gyllenhaal - She is close to a lock, but the movie just doesn’t have the backers to really guarantee much outside of Colman. The screenplay is impeccable and unlike anything else out there this year.

4. Drive My Car - Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe - The screenplay sorta has to be nominated. It spins a web and leaves you breathless for 3 hours. The Academy loves the directing in these types of auteur-driven films more than the writing, but if they snub it here I’ll be pissed.

5. CODA - Sian Heder - Here we have the last part of the CODA underdog Best Picture winner profile. The movie is a crowd-pleaser and mostly corny, but it is very effective. If she can overpower the heavyweights listed below her, then that says a lot.

Others in contention

6. The Tragedy of Macbeth - Joel Coen - Shakespeare adaptations always have a tough time getting nominated, but they aren’t always written by a Coen brother.

7. tick, tick…BOOM! - Steven Levenson - The WGA nomination is something, even though some top contenders were ineligible. I can see this getting in. That would be an impressive showing for such a smaller film that seemingly came out of nowhere.

8. West Side Story - Tony Kushner - Musical writers have as much of an issue getting nominated as Shakespeare writers. Kushner was nominated for Lincoln, so he is part of the group, but I just have a hard time imagining him getting in here. If he does, then this could be our Best Picture winner.

9. Passing - Rebecca Hall - If the Academy wants to go with one inspired choice, it would be this. It is a long shot, but Hall has never been nominated, and her movie is treated with such care and precision with touchy subject matter. It would be a beautiful choice.

Now for the rest of the categories:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Dune

2. The Power of the Dog

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. West Side Story

5. The Green Knight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dune

2. Nightmare Alley

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. West Side Story

5. The French Dispatch

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Cruella

2. Dune

3. House of Gucci

4. West Side Story

5. Spencer

BEST SOUND

1. Dune

2. No Time to Die

3. West Side Story

4. tick, tick…BOOM!

5. The Power of the Dog

BEST EDITING

1. Dune

2. The Power of the Dog

3. Belfast

4. West Side Story

5. Don’t Look Up

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dune

2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

3. The Matrix Resurrections

4. Godzilla vs. Kong

5. Eternals

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. House of Gucci

3. Dune

4. Cruella

5. The Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “No Time to Die” - No Time to Die

2. “Dos Oruguitas” - Encanto

3. “Be Alive” - King Richard

4. “Down to Joy” - Belfast

5. “Somehow You Do” - Four Good Days

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dune

2. The Power of the Dog

3. The French Dispatch

4. Spencer

5. Parallel Mothers

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Procession

2. The Velvet Underground

3. Summer of Soul

4. The Rescue

5. In the Same Breath

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Luca

2. Encanto

3. Flee

4. Raya and the Last Dragon

5. Belle

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1. Drive My Car

2. A Hero

3. The Worst Person in the World

4. The Good Boss

5. Prayers for the Stolen

Predicted Nominations Count

Dune: 11 noms / 6 wins

The Power of the Dog: 10 noms / 4 wins

West Side Story: 8 noms / 1 win

Belfast: 6 noms / 1 win

Drive My Car: 4 noms / 1 win

King Richard: 4 noms

tick, tick…BOOM!: 3 noms / 1 win

CODA: 3 noms

Don’t Look Up: 3 noms

House of Gucci: 3 noms

Licorice Pizza: 3 noms

The Lost Daughter: 3 noms

Spencer: 3 noms

The Tragedy of Macbeth: 3 noms

Being the Ricardos: 2 noms / 1 win

Cruella: 2 noms / 1 win

The Eyes of Tammy Faye: 2 noms / 1 win

No Time to Die: 2 noms / 1 win

Encanto: 2 noms

The French Dispatch: 2 noms

Luca: 1 nom / 1 win

Procession: 1 nom / 1 win

Belle: 1 nom

Cyrano: 1 nom

Eternals: 1 nom

Flee: 1 nom

Four Good Days: 1 nom

Godzilla vs. Kong: 1 nom

The Good Boss: 1 nom

The Green Knight: 1 nom

A Hero: 1 nom

In the Same Breath: 1 nom

Mass: 1 nom

The Matrix Resurrections: 1 nom

Nightmare Alley: 1 nom

Parallel Mothers: 1 nom

Passing: 1 nom

Prayers for the Stolen: 1 nom

Raya and the Last Dragon: 1 nom

The Rescue: 1 nom

 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings: 1 nom

The Suicide Squad: 1 nom

Summer of Soul: 1 nom

The Velvet Underground: 1 nom

The Worst Person in the World: 1 nom

There you have it! Take notes! What are your shocker nomination predictions? What movie will lead in nominations? Let me know in the comments