Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2023

 

The Oscar nominations are here! We got some real surprises, both good and bad. There is some shakeup and chinks in the armor of all the contenders, but there are really 3 or 4 films that cemented their place at the top of the race. None of the films got a perfect haul. We even had a film get 8 nominations without getting in for Best Director…which is absolutely ridiculous. That happened with The Dark Knight 15 years ago and they changed the voting. Check out all the Oscar nominees below, as well as my predictions, my coolest first-time nominees (maybe the most stacked category ever), and my top 10 biggest snubs! Enjoy!


BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Predicted: 8 for 10

Reactions: I had Babylon and The Whale, which both performed well, but instead we got Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness, neither of which were nominated below-the-line. Interesting group here. Jerry Bruckheimer is an Oscar nominee. Tom Cruise gets his first nomination since 1999. All of the real major players got in. It isn’t too shocking. In some ways Women Talking reminds me of Selma, where it was absolutely dead and no one saw it, but it somehow sneaks in anyway with just one other nomination. With the way EEAAO performed overall, it is the frontrunner, but Banshees and Tár got in everywhere it needed to.

Preliminary prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once


BEST DIRECTOR

Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Dwan, Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Todd Field - Tár

Ruben Ostlund - Triangle of Sadness

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I stuckto my guns and had Edward Berger getting nominated for All Quiet, which is a snub at this point and makes very little sense. I missed Ruben Ostlund, who I had jumbled in with a few other foreign directors in line for the 5th spot. It is a strong showing for a pretty terrible movie, but it makes sense given the sensibilities of the Academy. All the major players are here. I don’t think the Daniels can win this, but I really don’t know.

Preliminary prediction: Steven Spielberg


BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler - Elvis

Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Mescal - Aftersun

Bill Nighy - Living

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: At least I nailed this category! The only one in question was Mescal, but the alternatives were just too weak. This is the first time all the nominees in this category are first-time nominees in a long, long time. This is a 3 actor race between Butler, Fraser, and Farrell, all of whom have their arguments and wins so far this season.

Preliminary prediction: Brendan Fraser

BEST ACTRESS

Ana de Armas - Blonde

Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie

Cate Blanchett - Tár

Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Yikes, here we have some drama! I had Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis in, both of which I am disgusted that they missed. Michelle Williams I had getting category-frauded out of a nomination, and then…Riseborough. Wow…one of the smallest movies to get in at the Oscars, and her campaign really didn’t start until a few weeks ago when everyone started tweeting about her. It just shows how this game works sometimes. Till had no campaign and no exposure, it was running on its merit. To Leslie is a fine film with a great performance, but those never make it in when they are that small. It is an astonishing pull by the Academy.

Preliminary prediction: Cate Blanchett


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Paul Dano in, who missed yet again for a major Oscar player. I do not get the resistance toward nominating one of our true great method actors. Brian Tyree Henry is one of those actors who is in a spot where John C Reilly was in 2002. He is in absolutely everything and had one really good performance, and he rides it all the way. It is a small movie, a subtle role, and I can’t believe he made it work. Congrats! We all knew Eddie Redmayne was going to miss…

Preliminary prediction: Ke Huy Quan


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau - The Whale

Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Dolly de Leon getting in over Hsu, which makes even less sense that she missed when the movie got a Picture nom…but whatever. We have the first MCU acting nomination. JLC gets her first nomination for the weirdest role imaginable. I have no idea what happens here. Conventional wisdom says go with the veteran actor and past nominee, but the comparison of Condon to Tilda Swinton in 2007 is too strong.

Preliminary prediction: Kerry Condon


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Triangle of Sadness

Tár

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This was a pretty easy category to navigate. Triangle was the only question mark, but now it seems like that was a lock too. This will be  very telling very early at the Oscars where we stand for Best Picture. All four viable contenders are in this category.

Preliminary prediction: The Banshees of Inisherin


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Living

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Women Talking

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Top Gun gets an insanely strong nomination here, showing the love for the film in a way that reminds me of when Logan popped up here. I had The Whale getting in over that, which I feel dumb for now considering I made the point all year (and every year) that the Academy hates screenplays based on plays. This category is wide open. I tend to think since Women Talking got the Picture nom (and only that), then it has to be love for the screenplay. This is impossible to predict…

Preliminary prediction: Living


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Empire of Light

Tár

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Yikes…my top 3 choices all missed. I had The Fabelmans, Avatar, and Top Gun: Maverick in over Elvis, Bardo, and Tár. Top Gun was the favorite. It has won absolutely everything from every voting body, even though it is not really Oscar-type cinematography, it makes no sense to snub it here. This is a peculiar and strong nomination for Tár. This category can suddenly go any direction.

Preliminary prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Here I had All Quiet missing in favor of Black Panther. This is a typical list of all period/fantasy films. I’m not really sure what to make of this. Can All Quiet just win all of these awards? It is very possible.

Preliminary prediction: Babylon


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed EEAAO in favor of The Fabelmans. That is an unusual modern nomination in this category, but I guess that is cool to see. I don’t know how to evaluate this.

Preliminary prediction: Babylon


BEST SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

The Batman

Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: This is a sneaky miss by EEAAO. Usually, the eventual Best Picture winner randomly pops up here, so that shows a bit of a disconnect. It had a chance to really put in for a crazy sweep. I missed The Batman, which I don’t feel horrible about. It is not typical Oscar stuff, but I like to see it!

Preliminary prediction: Top Gun: Maverick


BEST FILM EDITING

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Top Gun: Maverick

Tár

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Tár missing in favor of Babylon. They really didn’t take any of the excessively long movies, which says something. That is an interesting nomination for Tár. The strength of that movie is really coming on. This category has been 100% linked to Best Sound in recent years, so the obvious and deserving winner is…

Preliminary prediction: Top Gun: Maverick


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

The Batman

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Here I missed The Batman and All Quiet in favor of Doctor Strange and Nope (which got shut out). I underestimated their love of the visuals in war films. I should have known better after 1917. This category is over before it starts.

Preliminary prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

All Quiet on the Western Front

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Batman

The Whale

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: I don’t think I have ever aced this category before. They are all very showy makeup jobs, and the movies all seemed to overperform relative to expectations. This could be an interesting race if they look past the fat suit.

Preliminary prediction: The Whale


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Lift Me Up” - Black PAnther: Wakanda Forever

“This Is a Life” - Everything Everywhere All at Once

“Naatu Naatu” - RRR

“Applause” - Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” - Top Gun: MAverick

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed the song from EEAAO in favor of the song from Till (shut out). I can only think of the song from RRR. None of these are classics, and the Diane Warren song no one has ever heard (or seen the movie). Some of the fun random nominees here are David Byrne, Rihanna, Lady Gaga and Bloodpop, and Ryan Coogler.

Preliminary prediction: RRR


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: This is a real shocking miss for Pinocchio, which got in almost nowhere we thought it would. I also missed Women Talking, which is a horrible snub. I overlooked All Quiet (really hedged my bets there, it seems) and EEAAO. John Williams is 90 years old and he’s still rocking it.

Preliminary prediction: Babylon


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

A House Made of Splinters

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

Navalny

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed Navalny in favor of Descendant, which I thought was secure with its Higher Ground backing. All the “experts” were predicting snubs here, but the current Academy is way different than it was even 5 years ago.

Preliminary prediction: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed


BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed The Quiet Girl (although after its BAFTA screenplay nom, I should have known better) and Close in favor of Bardo and Decision to Leave. That is a brutal oversight by the Academy. Chan-wook Park’s film was being looked at for above-the-line nominations too, and he can’t even get in here. That’s rough. This one is easy to predict, though.

Preliminary prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guiller,o del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed The Sea Beast (people remember that movie?) and Marcel the Shell (not animated) in favor of My Father’s Dragon and Inu-Oh. I don’t feel bad about this. Nobody predicted this right.

Preliminary prediction: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On


Overall predictions: 80/105; 76.19% (70.5% in 2022)

Without the last 5 categories: 63/80; 78.75% (76.9% in 2022)

On the Big 8 categories: 37/45; 82.22% (81.4% in 2022)


Wow, that was one of my better showings! Cinematography was my only real disastrous category, getting just 2 of the 5, but over 75% across all categories…I’m happy!


10 COOLEST FIRST-TIME NOMINEES

1. Colin Farrell

2. Brian Tyree Henry

3. Brendan Gleeson

4. Brendah Fraser

5. Michelle Yeoh

6. Barry Keoghan

7. Rihanna

8. Jamie Lee Curtis

9. Bill Nighy

10. Jerry Bruckheimer


10 WORST SNUBS

1. Top Gun: Maverick for Best Cinematography

2. Edward Berger for Best Director

3. Danielle Deadwyler for Best Actress

4. The Woman King in all categories (especially Best Actress)

5. Women Talking for Best Original Score

6. Retrograde for Best Documentary Feature

7. Paul Dano for Best Supporting Actor (The Batman and The Fabelmans)

8. Eddie Redmayne for Best Supporting Actor

9. The cast of Women Talking for Best Supporting Actress

10. Crimes of the Future for Best Makeup


IF THERE WERE 5 NOMINEES…

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Fabelmans

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Tár

5. Top Gun: Maverick



That’s all I got! How did everyone do in their predictions this year? What are your biggest snubs? Who are your favorite first-time nominees? What is winning Best Picture? Comment below and discuss! And as always…stay tuned for our 15th Annual Oscar Challenge!