We have gotten almost all the information we are going to get before the nominations get announced. Some of the precursor guilds are even announced after the Oscars nominations, which is…new. And with the BAFTA nominations still to come, I feel like this is a good time to put in my final Oscar picks. After the last couple years with the deeply flawed jury system at BAFTA, they are no longer considered a relevant precursor in my eyes. Spielberg wasn’t even longlisted…yeah nice work there. Almost all of the categories still have a ton of uncertainty, which is exciting and also distressing because I am going to have huge variance in my predictions in even the major categories. This is why I do this, though. It is a yearlong project, and I love it! Read up and comment below!
***The nominations are announced Tuesday, January 24th***
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg) - LOCK
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert) - LOCK
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) - LOCK
4. Tár (Todd Field) - LOCK
5. Elvis (Baz Luhrmann) - LOCK
6. Top Gun: Maverick (Joseph Kosinski) - The movie still looks really good for a nomination, but the shine has worn off a bit with the film underperforming at the precursors and guilds. The DGA nomination was huge, so it’s probably close to a lock, but the unfathomable snub is possible here.
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron) - Never bet against Cameron, but I haven’t really heard anyone claim this was the actual best movie of the year. It needs #1 votes, and I’m not convinced it has enough on the first count, but it probably won’t rank too low on anyone’s list.
8. Babylon (Damien Chazelle) - The movie is wild and divisive and has one of the lower critics scores of any real Best Picture contender, but it seems to be liked well enough in the industry to pull through to a nomination. The SAG Ensemble spoke volumes.
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger) - The more people actually see the movie, the closer it gets to being a pretty surefire nominee. The PGA snub was a little puzzling, but it is still incredibly strong below the line and looks to be Netflix’s biggest threat to make a run. The old-fashioned war movie format is always welcomed by the Academy.
10. The Whale (Darren Aronofsky) - The PGA nomination was huge for the film. It is either your favorite movie or you hate the movie. The industry seems to have a lot of support for the film, and every time you see Brendan Fraser anywhere, we are all in tears. I think it snags the last spot, and it has a chance to over-perform in several categories.
Others in contention
11. Women Talking (Sarah Polley) - The movie has been just ignored or forgotten or brushed off by most of the precursors. The movie just doesn’t have the appeal or scope that the Academy really goes for, but it would be strange to not have a female-directed film in the running.
12. The Woman King (Gina Prince-Bythewood) - The PGA snub was a bad sign for the film’s prospects. The movie was a hit at the box office, but they opted for things like Glass Onion instead. I don’t want to count the film out, but it is in that spot where it could also be completely shut out.
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson) - The first one was probably just on the outside of the Best Picture lineup, and while this isn’t nearly as popular as that movie, it still has a ton of support and a likely screenplay nomination. I don’t expect to hear this film called, but the PGA nomination means something.
14. RRR (SS Rajamouli) - The movie is a phenomenon, but it would be one of the strangest Best Picture nominations of all time. Usually when a movie is overlooked by their own country, it doesn’t get nominated here, but other categories are wide open. If it has that underground swelling Parasite-level support (which it might), then it could still snag a spot.
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ryan Coogler) - The PGA nomination is crazy, but that means this is still possible. It could be one of the rare franchises to get nominated for its original and its sequel.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans - LOCK
2. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once - LOCK
3. Todd Field - Tár - LOCK
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin - He should be a lock, but he has been snubbed before. Sometimes it is hard to get past the industry viewing you more of a writer than a director, but this movie is in an even stronger position than Three Billboards was. These last few spots are a little tough, but if the movie is the big BP winner contender, then he needs this nom.
5. Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front - His film is only growing in appreciation, and the artistic and technical elements are unmatched by anything in 2022. The foreign auteur vote is always a thing, but the only thing holding him back from being a lock is the fact that no one really knows who he is.
Others in contention
6. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water - I have been viewing this the same way I viewed LOTR: The Two Towers. You don’t need to shower this one with awards when you have another chance (or 3) to do that later. Peter Jackson took a year off from this category, and it would only make sense if he did too. But don’t ever count him out.
7. Sarah Polley - Women Talking - She has the respect in the industry as a terrific director, but the film just isn’t really catching on. She will need a last minute push from BAFTA to snag a spot.
8. Charlotte Wells - Aftersun - The National Society of Film Critics gave her Best Director for her debut film, which is insane. Her film is beautifully directed and could be the international pick/women’s pick in a shocker.
9. Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick - The DGA nomination ensured its Best Picture status, but it still seems like a real longshot that he could get in this stacked category. If he does, then it could be a screenplay contender and a threat for the top prize.
10. Baz Luhrmann - Elvis - He was snubbed for Moulin Rouge!, and no one is really talking about him as a real contender in this category, even though he directs the hell out of it, for better or worse.
11. Damien Chazelle - Babylon - The only thing going in its favor is comparisons to The Wolf of Wall Street, which was also a late riser and overperformer on nomination morning.
12. SS Rajamouli - RRR - He really needed a DGA or PGA nomination to stay up there in the rankings, but the foreign auteur pick has gone further off the map. Remember Pawel Pawlikowski?
13. Ruben Ostlund - Triangle of Sadness - Same as Rajamouli.
14. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths - They adore the guy, but this can’t happen, right? …Right?
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale - LOCK
2. Austin Butler - Elvis - LOCK
3. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin - LOCK
4. Bill Nighy - Living - LOCK
5. Paul Mescal - Aftersun - This last spot can really go anywhere. I expect a strong showing at BAFTA for the film, which will put him squarely into the running, despite no real precursor love for him.
Others in contention
6. Hugh Jackman - The Son - It is becoming more and more difficult to get a lone nomination for a film in an acting category, but he is a beloved actor, and despite bad reviews, he is still picking up some notices along the way.
7. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick - It seems weird to think of an acting nomination from the movie, but it is an incredibly high WAR performance, and there is enough love for the film to make this happen.
8. Jeremy Pope - The Inspection - The movie is just too small and too underseen. He is terrific and deserves a nomination, but he is going to have to wait a year (stand by for those 2024 predictions in the coming days).
9. Adam Sandler - Hustle - His SAG nomination is crazy. I never thought him campaigning for that movie would get him any notices, but he is actually a possibility. If he gets in for that and not Uncut Gems, then that says everything you need to know about the weakness of this category in 2022.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Tom Hanks - A Man Called Otto
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Cate Blanchett - Tár - LOCK
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once - LOCK
3. Viola Davis - The Woman King - She is in a really good spot, and she is running on the campaign trail being the film’s big producer as well. She seems pretty safe, but there are a handful of actresses going for these last three spots.
4. Ana de Armas - Blonde - There seems to be one divisive performance in this category each year. She has gotten all the important mentions, and she has some major support from the international markets. I feel pretty good about this.
5. Danielle Deadwyler - Till - It depends on if enough people have seen the movie. She got the important SAG nomination, so she is in a good spot. There’s just no way anyone has seen this movie and doesn’t think she gave one of the elite performances of the year.
Others in contention
6. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans - The category fraud showed its downside with the SAG nominations. I actually think the Academy could rebel and nominate her in Supporting after all, but that would be a little strange. DiCaprio in The Departed is really the only time we have seen it go from lead to supporting, and that didn’t even work. She needs to win an Oscar eventually.
7. Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie - There is a bizarre surging support in the industry for her, which came out of nowhere and is a little confusing. She is tremendous and deserves consideration, but it would be one of the smaller films nominated that I can remember. At least since the Winter’s Bone / Frozen River days.
8. Margot Robbie - Babylon - She really needed to get in at SAG. I am not counting her out because late risers have gotten more wild nominations like Clint Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby and Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, but I just don’t think there is a real need for this one to get in.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Vicky Krieps - Corsage
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once - LOCK
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin - LOCK
3. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin - LOCK
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans - He has been in way too many top Oscar movies to continuously be ignored. This is his best shot yet, even though the movie seems to be failing in certain key spots…like BAFTA. He still is the next best bet here.
5. Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans - Recent history would suggest he is in a better spot than Dano (like Dench getting in over Balfe for Belfast), but there just aren’t any other real strong contenders. If they both get in after all that, then we all need to eat a lot of crow.
Others in contention
6. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse - He has gotten SAG and HFPA noms, and he is a beloved actor in the industry. That movie just never seemed like the Academy’s thing. I am going against some trends to leave him off.
7. Brad Pitt - Babylon - He is still one of the most popular people in the world. He is also doing some of his best supporting work in this movie.
8. Ben Whishaw - Women Talking - If his performance was a little better, then he would be a default #5 pick. I really can’t see him getting in without any of his female co-stars.
9. Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway - It is a great performance, but it is way too subtle and too small of a movie to feel good about predicting him.
10. Daniel Bruhl - All Quiet on the Western Front - This would show an incredible amount of support for his film’s Best Picture chances if they pull him out the hat.
11. Woody Harrelson - Triangle of Sadness - Same as Bruhl.
12. Tom Hanks - Elvis - Please…don’t do this.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Anthony Hopkins - Armageddon Time
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin - LOCK
2. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Her wins from the Critics Choice and Golden Globes make this unlikely nomination a real contender for the win. Is this really going to be the first MCU acting nomination? It sure seems like it, and she is treated like a queen whenever she appears at awards shows.
3. Hong Chau - The Whale - The SAG nomination was huge for her. I always suspected she could ride the wave of Fraser’s popularity to a potential nomination. She outshines him at times too. She is getting in…I hope.
4. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once - She is the biggest cheerleader for the movie, and the movie is just looking so strong all across the board. She has never been nominated, and she is one of the most popular and most bankable female movie stars of the last 45 years. This seems like a weird performance to get nominated for, but that is where we are at in 2023.
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness - Her part is a standout and has the beats of a classic supporting nomination. The movie will need to surprise in a few spots, but she seems like a good bet here.
Others in contention
6. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans - I just can’t bring myself to predict this, but I’m just saying…I can see it.
7. Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All at Once - She gets the vote of all the younger people online, but they aren’t the members of the Academy. She will probably win at the Spirit Awards, but she might just need to ride this breakthrough role to an eventual nomination in the next decade.
7. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking - She has the best chance in her cast, but there just isn’t a performance that has been anointed by any individual group. This is the most extreme case of vote splitting within its own movie that I can remember.
9. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - She has gotten in where she needs to…until SAG. It would be a cool nomination, but it just doesn’t seem like an Oscary enough movie to really start giving acting nominations to.
10. Claire Foy - Women Talking - She has the showiest part in the movie, but no one is talking about her. It would be a cool surprise on nomination morning if she “Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals” her way into the category at the last minute.
11. Carey Mulligan - She Said - She and the movie appear all but dead, but she still has the overdue tag that could keep getting her nominated.
12. Keke Palmer - Nope - She got some of the biggest critics mentions, yet her odds seem to be dwindling. The movie is way more popular than most of us give it credit for.
13. Nina Hoss - Tár - If she gets in, then Tár could actually be winning Best Picture.
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination - Rooney Mara - Women Talking
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh - LOCK
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - LOCK
3. Tár - Todd Field - LOCK
4. The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner - LOCK
5. Triangle of Sadness - Ruben Ostlund - The Cannes winners have really had success in recent years at the Oscars, and even if the movie isn’t your thing, the writing is a standout. It fits with what they usually go for in the category.
Others in contention
6. Aftersun - Charlotte Wells - The movie is in position for a few nominations to come out of seemingly nowhere. It looked that way a year ago with C’mon C’mon, but this movie is even more beloved.
7. Babylon - Damien Chazelle - It would be one of the messiest screenplays ever nominated at the Oscars, but it has a real shot. Chazelle is in rarified air for filmmakers his age.
8. Nope - Jordan Peele - How deep does the love/respect for Peele go? Pretty deep, but is it enough to break into this category? I wouldn’t doubt it.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Living - Kazuo Ishiguro - Every once in a while, there is a surprise winner in this category. The Call Me By Your Name-type of film that isn’t your typical winner, but it is a chance for the Academy to show that they are still mature…sometimes. It might not even get nominated, but I think it could really win if it gets in…if people see it in time.
2. Women Talking - Sarah Polley - It is your classic talky Adapted Screenplay nominee, but the love for the movie has completely vanished. If it misses here, then we will never stop hearing about it.
3. The Whale - Samuel D Hunter - The movie’s support is clear within the industry. It is going to be at the top of a lot of voters’ ballots, but the divisiveness will prevent it from winning.
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson - He seems to have taken the mantle as being the coolest hotshot writer-director in the business right now. The first movie got in, so can this one? That would be joining some pretty esteemed company, but the category is so weak that it is looking like a near lock.
5. All Quiet on the Western Front - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell - The movie’s support is at an all time high, and while war movies don’t have the best track record in the writing categories, there really isn’t much else to go with. The National Board of Review win lets us know that the writing is respected enough to be singled out.
Others in contention
6. She Said - Rebecca Lenkiewicz - The movie looks like it could be completely shut out, but the love of journalism within the Academy could help it not be completely forgotten.
7. Top Gun: Maverick - Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie - It is baffling that this is really possible, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
8. A Man Called Otto - David Magee - He is a two-time nominee, and the movie is more popular than we really anticipated. The category is soft…why not?
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio - Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale - It is as unanimous of a sweep in the Animated category than we have seen in quite a while. Sometimes screenplay noms come along with that.
Now, here are the below-the-line categories to fill out your ballot and/or Gold Derby predictions:
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. The Fabelmans
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Empire of Light
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Babylon
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Elvis
5. The Fabelmans
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Babylon
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Elvis
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. The Fabelmans
BEST SOUND
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Elvis
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST EDITING
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. Nope
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. The Batman
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Naatu Naatu” - RRR
2. “Lift Me Up” - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. “Hold My Hand” - Top Gun: Maverick
4. “Applause” - Tell It Like a Woman
5. “Stand Up” - Till
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Women Talking
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Descendant
3. Fire of Love
4. All That Breathes
5. The Territory
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4. My Father’s Dragon
5. Inu-Oh
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Decision to Leave
3. Argentina, 1985
4. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
5. EO
Predicted Nominations Count
The Fabelmans: 9 noms / 2 wins
The Banshees of Inisherin: 8 noms / 2 wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once: 8 noms / 1 win
All Quiet on the Western Front: 7 noms / 1 win
Elvis: 7 noms
Top Gun: Maverick: 6 noms / 3 wins
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 6 noms
Babylon: 5 noms / 3 wins
The Whale: 5 noms / 2 wins
Avatar: The Way of Water: 5 noms / 1 win
Tár: 4 noms/ 1 win
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio: 2 noms / 1 win
Living: 2 noms / 1 win
Till: 2 noms
Triangle of Sadness: 2 noms
Women Talking: 2 noms
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: 1 nom / 1 win
RRR: 1 nom / 1 win
Aftersun: 1 nom
All That Breathes: 1 nom
Argentina, 1985: 1 nom
Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
The Batman: 1 nom
Blonde: 1 nom
Decision to Leave: 1 nom
Descendant: 1 nom
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: 1 nom
Empire of Light: 1 nom
EO: 1 nom
Fire of Love: 1 nom
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery: 1 nom
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris: 1 nom
My Father’s Dragon: 1 nom
Inu-Oh: 1 nom
Nope: 1 nom
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: 1 nom
Tell It Like a Woman: 1 nom
The Territory: 1 nom
Turning Red: 1 nom
The Woman King: 1 nom
There you have it! Take notes! What are your shocker nomination predictions? Comment below!
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