Asteroid City (Wes Anderson)
Beth and Don You Hurt My Feelings (Nicole Holofcener)
Brothers (Max Barbakow)
Disappointment Blvd Beau Is Afraid (Ari Aster)
Flint Strong (Rachel Morrison)
Napoleon (Ridley Scott)
Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi)
Poor Things (Yorgos Lanthimos)
Rustin (George C Wolfe)
Seacole (Charlie Stratton)
Shirley (John Ridley)
Spaceman (Johan Renck)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet)
The Killer (David Fincher)
The Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
The winner is probably going to come from that list, but I am not going to break a movie down for the second or third or fourth straight year until I know for sure it is getting released (I am looking at you James Cameron and Terrence Malick…). So here are the best of the rest! There are a lot of great films getting released this year, I can’t wait to see how genius or idiotic this looks in 6 months. Read up!
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten
1. One Life (James Hawes) - This is the story of British humanitarian Nicholas Winton, who saved hundreds of children from the Nazis in WWII. It has been a while since the Academy has gone back to their favorite subject. While Hawes is a debut filmmaker, it is produced by the See-Saw Films, who brought Lion, The King’s Speech, and The Power of the Dog into the forefront of the Oscar race. The British contingent is always strong in the Academy when it has their big inspiring stories.
2. Blitz (Steve McQueen) - This is the story of the British capital bombing during World War II. This is sort of doubling down on the Academy’s love of the subject, so either way I’m going to be right. McQueen is a master at the top of his game after Small Axe, and I’m sure there is leftover love and enthusiasm for 12 Years a Slave. This movie has an underrated cast, Apple is behind it, and it just has the subject matter that makes it feel like a major contender.
3. Bernstein (Bradley Cooper) - The passion project for writer-director-star-producer Bradley Cooper will absolutely be an awards player. It is the story of legendary conductor Leonard Bernstein and his wife. It is a big swing for Cooper, but most of the time those are rewarded. With his work ethic and commitment, I can’t help but think this will be phenomenal. Or it will be a complete disaster. There won’t be much in-between, but seeing how A Star Is Born was received, this should have no problem gobbling up raves.
4. Keyhole Garden (Marco Perego Saldana) - The artist husband of Zoe Saldana makes his directorial debut here. There is usually at least one breakthrough filmmaker in the mix, and it could easily be this one. It is a seemingly grounded story about the US-Mexico border, and timely movies like that are always welcome by the Academy. It might be way too small, but it is something that stands out in its subject matter and potential.
5. The Color Purple (Blitz Bazawule) - This is a musical adaptation of the classic novel that Spielberg directed to several Oscar nominations in 1985. It is about an African American woman in the south in the early 1900s. The cast is fascinating, combining high profile actors with non-acting famous people in some pivotal roles. Bazawule is an up-and-coming director from Ghana.
6. The New Boy (Warwick Thornton) - This is a story about an Aboriginal orphan boy’s experiences at a monastery. It is directed by an Australian director who has been knocking on the door to awards season lately, and it stars Cate Blanchett. It sounds like something we need to pay attention to.
7. Oppenheimer (Christoper Nolan) - Like every Nolan movie, this sounds like it could be an awards player despite its summer release date. It is the story of J. Robert Oppenheimer developing the atomic bomb. It is a swing for Nolan, but a filmmaker of his stature and output deserves to swing for the fences. It looks breathtaking, ponderous, and groundbreaking, but it also might be the type of thing that flops in the end. I am conservatively putting it here, but it could be one of the ones to beat if it hits.
8. Fairyland (Andrew Durham) - I could already be proven wrong by this since it is a Sundance movie, but this is a feature directorial debut about a young woman who is reliving her experiences with her gay dad in San Francisco in the 70s and 80s. The cast is intriguing, and we have really seen a lot more Sundance movies withstanding the yearlong hype in recent years.
9. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell) - The movie is billed as a thriller following an aristocratic English family. We have just seen a bunch of movies that are scathing toward the rich, so why not one more? Fennell is coming off a huge showing for her first film, and this one seems like another pretty big swing that will have people talking. I can’t wait to see where she goes with it.
10. Leave the World Behind (Sam Esmail) - The creator of Mr. Robot made his first movie, and it is about two families who are forced to stay together on a long weekend. It is based on a recent book that explores parenthood, race, and class, which of course sounds right up the Academy’s alley. Mr. Robot was groundbreaking when it first came out, and we could be looking at an Ex Machina kind of unexpected hit on the horizon here.
Others in contention
11. The Royal Hotel (Kitty Green) - Australian director Green had her breakthrough with The Assistant, and this is another movie in the same realm. It is about a hotel resort in the middle of nowhere that conducts manipulation to its female employees. It sounds tough, but it also sounds more expansive than the isolating debut for Green. It is currently in production, but it shouldn’t have a hard time finishing for festival season.
12. The Holdovers (Alexander Payne) - Payne almost always garners awards attention. Even with Downsizing, he nearly got his supporting actress nominated. Here is a story about a teacher who has nothing else to do on Christmas than to supervise students who didn’t go home for vacation. He reunites with Paul Giamatti, and it sounds like a charming movie that can also be a lot more with the classic Payne touches.
13. Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve) - The original was a smash with the Academy, despite knowingly being half of the story. I can’t help but feel like the conclusion will be a little bloated and eventually underwhelm at the box office. The first one didn’t have that problem being on HBO Max, but it is just a gut feeling. This way, I still leave room for myself to be surprised.
14. Lee (Ellen Kuras) - This is a classic movie all about potential. It is a true story about a war photographer/correspondent/fashion model in WWII. The cast is to die for, and the director is a documentarian who has an Oscar nom. It could work, or it could be A Private War all over. Either way, we have to pay attention to this.
15. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola) - Even if there is a bit of Elvis fatigue, this is undeniable. It is based on the novel by Priscilla Presley herself, and it is about the relationship she had with the music icon. Sofia Coppola taking on something like this is fascinating.
16. May December (Todd Haynes) - Haynes has a complicated relationship with the Academy. He has never won, and he has never had a Best Picture nomination, even though Far from Heaven was clearly the best movie of its year. Here, we have a romance about a couple whose tabloid marriage is about to be chronicled by a film. It sounds more like Golden Globes stuff, but you have to pay attention when subject matter like this shows up with an acclaimed director at the helm.
17. The Boys in the Boat (George Clooney) - It has been 12 years since Clooney was a real threat as a director. Here, he tells the true story of the 1930s University of Washington (Go Dawgs!) rowing team, including them winning gold at the 1936 Olympics in Berlin against the Germans. It sounds like a perfect underdog sports story, and one not many people probably know about. Those can either hit or miss, but sports films have been making a resurgence with awards in recent years.
18. Here (Robert Zemeckis) - Zemeckis has had a rough go at it in recent years, but this sounds like a return to form. It stars Paul Bettany, alongside Zemeckis veterans Kelly Reilly, Tom Hanks, and Robin Wright in a movie that follows the inhabitants of a room over years. I’m not even sure what that means, but it is worth keeping an eye out for. Like most Zemeckis movies, we will probably be able to tell by the trailer.
19. Eileen (William Oldroyd) - The movie is about a woman who sparks a friendship with a prison coworker, and it is billed as a drama-mystery. That sounds a bit like Don’t Worry Darling, but we will have to see. It is a Sundance premiere, so we will know shortly (or we already know). The director was behind Lady Macbeth in 2016, which discovered Florence Pugh, and the writer just penned Causeway. The cast is cool. Let’s wait for word from Park City on this.
20. Ferrari (Michael Mann) - For lack of better context, this sounds like House of Gucci. It is an Adam Driver-starring biopic about Enzo Ferrari, the sports car magnate. It can’t be that bad because it’s not Ridley Scott, but it sounds pretty typical. The cast is predictably interesting though. I just have to mention this movie, but it feels like a late summer release.
21. Dumb Money (Craig Gillespie) - This sounds more like a miniseries than a movie, but it chronicles the chaos of the GameStop stock fiasco in 2021. It could be a The Big Short type of intelligent but relatable Wall Street thing, or it could be completely ridiculous (it has Pete Davidson, Seth Rogen, and Nick Offerman listed in the cast). Everything else sounds too good to ignore completely, though. Gillespie has made waves with I, Tonya, Cruella, and Lars and the Real Girl in the last 15 years.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Steve McQueen - Blitz - McQueen won Picture and lost Director in 2013, so it only makes sense if they flip flop those this year. This appears to be a flashier kind of directing achievement than One Life, but who really knows at this point? It would be really cool if he were to become the first black filmmaker to win this prestigious prize. He has to be considered the frontrunner.
2. James Hawes - One Life - Directors making their theatrical debuts are always going to have an uphill climb to actually win the Oscar. His TV credits include Black Mirror and Snowpiercer, so we know he has style and pedigree. When the movie is the frontrunner, unless it is a true late bloomer like CODA, then the director will be nominated.
3. Bradley Cooper - Bernstein - His snub for A Star Is Born really shook him, so I guarantee he will put a lot more flash into this film. The makeup work and everything that has been released so far looks immaculate. Netflix is behind the movie, so getting people to understand the scope on the small screen will be his only hurdle.
4. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer - He broke through for Dunkirk finally, but then Tenet really left a sour taste in some people’s mouth, even though he tried to save cinema during the pandemic. I still respect him for that. Anyway, this seems like the most serious and least Nolan that we have seen him go, and sometimes that is the easiest ticket for an A-lister to get nominated.
5. Warwick Thornton - The New Boy - He is more known as a cinematographer than a director, but recently his output has been compelling. The movie appears to be one of the ones to beat in several categories, and being an international production never hurt anyone in this category.
Others in contention
6. Emerald Fennell - Saltburn - She is a previous nominee, so she is already part of the club. The cast she assembled is beyond intriguing, and the movie being billed as a thriller has my eyes wide open. She could direct the hell out of it.
7. Sam Esmail - Leave the World Behind - The movie certainly has the room for a lot of showy direction that could lead to a nomination. He is an established figure already from his TV work, but that isn’t enough to take him all the way. Remember Garth Davis for Lion? He will need to really bring it to make it into this stacked group.
8. Andrew Durham - Fairyland - The movie sounds like one one of the most interesting ones of the entire slate. Smaller movies like this have a tough time breaking into this category, but Beasts of the Southern Wild changed the conversation over a decade ago. If the Academy loves a movie, it doesn’t matter where it came from.
9. Sofia Coppola - Priscilla - She is a past nominee, and as long as she doesn’t go too far into the weeds like she did with Marie Anoinette, then she has an excellent chance at turning this into something really memorable. She went pretty obscure with her cast, which can actually help her cause in some cases.
10. Marco Perego Saldana - Keyhole Garden - He is a first time director, but I view his film as one of the favorites in several categories. He is an artist by trade, so his film will likely be beautiful and showy in its direction.
11. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two - He was snubbed for the first one, which was one of the stranger snubs I have ever seen. Even if this one is just as good, are we really going to feel good about predicting him? I won’t.
12. Blitz Bazawule - The Color Purple - Musical directors don’t have the best track record in this category, but the movie could be the type that is in for such a sweep that it might not matter. It will need to be more imaginative in how it is shot than Les Miserables and the like.
13. Roman Polanski - The Palace - It has been a while since a real big hit for Polanski, but here we get an interlocking story drama set at a hotel starring John Cleese and Mickey Rourke. All Polanski movies sound good on paper, but this one in particular, co-written by the filmmaker behind EO, sounds fascinating.
14. Kitty Green - The Royal Hotel - Her first film was minimalist, so she will really need to open it up to be singled out in this category. It sounds like a much more ambitious undertaking, so we will have to see where she goes with it.
15. Robert Zemeckis - Here - Being a past winner in the category helps, even though it is his only nomination outside of the screenplay nom for Back to the Future. This doesn’t sound like a directing showcase, but if it hits, then he will be in the running.
16. Eileen Kuras - Lee - She is a nominated documentarian (2008, The Betrayal - Nerakhoon), and she is an acclaimed cinematographer of films such as Eternal Sunshine and sporadic Spike Lee joints. The movie sounds intriguing, and with these qualifications, I can’t help but feel like it will be well directed. I’m being a little cautious with this.
17. Joshua Oppenheimer - The End - I have no idea if this is getting released this year, but it is a drama musical about the last human family, and Oppenheimer is making his feature debut after directing a couple Oscar nominated docs (The Act of Killing, The Look of Silence). I have no idea what this will look like, but I can only imagine something mind-blowing.
18. George Clooney - The Boys in the Boat - He is a past nominee in the category, which by default puts him in contention. Sports movies are not the easiest sell, but battling Nazi Germany movies are. I can’t help but feel like the The Men Who Stare at Goats Clooney will come out in this kind of story, but who knows?
19. Michael Mann - Ferrari - It has been quite a while for Michael Mann. His last real awards player was maybe Collateral, but he has just been having fun since then. If he really focuses on this, then it could be another Ali or The Insider, but he’s almost 80 years old, I can’t think he cares about the awards game anymore. Out of respect, I am leaving him here.
20. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers - He got nominated for Nebraska…the Academy loves the guy as much as any writer-director out there. The movie sounds like a more personal and character-based comedy, which is a throwback to his earlier films. After Downsizing, I need to see it before I go all out predicting it.
21. Todd Haynes - May December - He realistically is never going to get nominated for something like this, but the material just sounds like such an interesting step for him, and it is a reunion with Julianne Moore. This mention is really just outta respect so I can keep an eye on it.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Paul Bettany - The Collaboration - Bettany has been in and around the awards game for a long time, but he has never been singled out. Here he gets the juicy role in Kwame Kwei-Armah’s directorial debut as Andy Warhol…oh and it’s written by the writer of all Oscar biopics Anthony McCarten. He is getting his first nomination this year, and right now, he is the frontrunner for the win.
2. Bradley Cooper - Bernstein - He will win an Oscar in time, and while the initial production photos are staggering in a DDL in Lincoln type of way, it is still extraordinarily rare for a director to direct himself to an acting Oscar. He will give it everything he has, transform himself and his voice, pick up a bunch of critics awards, but I still feel like he falls just short in the end…again.
3. Jaime Vadell - El Conde - After making a couple films about iconic women in power, Pablo Larrain returns to Chile to make this film about Augusto Pinochet, the former dictator of Chile, and it portrays him as an aged vampire who has decided to die after 250 years. It sounds wild, and Vadell is unknown in the US, but it is distributed by Netflix. Given Larrain’s recent track record, this could be an out-of-nowhere foreign acting nomination waiting to happen.
4. Stephen Graham - Blitz - He is one of those actors who is always great in everything, but he is never the lead in major films. He may not even be the lead here, but the 8-time BAFTA nominee deserves his shot at an awards player. The leads in McQueen’s movies are always astonishing, so keep an eye out for this performance. He could rise to the top pretty quickly once the film is completed and early word starts to trickle out.
5. Johnny Flynn - One Life - Flynn has been around awards caliber movies for a handful of years now. Here he plays the lead in the Best Picture frontrunner, the younger version of Nicholas Winton (Anthony Hopkins plays the older version, I assume through recounting his stories). He has the acting chops to be a thing in the US. He has been nominated for one Critics Choice TV award thus far, but here he will absolutely be swept in with the love of the film.
Others in contention
6. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers - He was snubbed in the worst way for Sideways, but this sounds like something much more up his alley. He has copious amounts of award mentions since in TV, and this reunion with Payne looks to be something we can all get behind. And returning as a teacher? I have to see this ASAP.
7. Andre Holland - The Actor - This is a live action movie directed by Anomalisa director Duke Johnson, and it is about a New York actor who is left for dead in 1950s Ohio, where he loses his memory. It sounds intriguing, and with Charlie Kaufman collaborator at the helm, I’m sure it will be weird. Holland has really made waves since Moonlight, and his Bones and All performance a year ago reminded us of that. It depends on the distribution with this one.
8. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer - He almost never gets leading roles, so this is a performance I can’t wait to see. He looks amazing in the trailer, and he has the type of obsessive personality to really dig into that character’s bones.
9. Demian Bichir - Without Blood - This movie is directed by Angelina Jolie, and it is about a girl during wartime. The plot is being kept pretty tight, but Jolie is an auteur and has all of her films gain pretty considerable attention. Bichir might not even be the lead, but he is a past nominee and is worth keeping tabs on.
10. Gael Garcia Bernal - Cassandro - This is a true story of a gay amateur wrestler, and it is directed by Oscar-winning documentarian Roger Ross Williams. It has a pretty slick cast, and Bernal is among the best actors on the planet without an Oscar nomination. It is only a matter of time. We likely already know this film’s chances after its Sundance premiere.
11. Spenser Granese - La Cocina - Granesse is an up-and-coming actor, and he is the star of this play adaptation from acclaimed Mexican director Alonso Ruizpalacios (A Cop Movie). It follows a kitchen in New York, and the play chronicles culture clashes and such. It sounds like an acting showcase. He stars alongside Rooney Mara.
12. Ryan Gosling - Barbie - Is this movie going to be an awards player? Maybe not, but it needs to be mentioned. Gosling as Ken in Greta Gerwig’s comedy about the Barbie doll is just too good to be true.
13. Adam Driver - Ferrari - Basically every movie he makes, he looks like he is going for an Oscar. He will get one soon, and the production photos look like he pretty much disappears into the character. If he wins for something like this it would be kinda perfect.
14. Timothee Chalamet - Wonka - Timothee Chalamet as Willy Wonka in a film directed by the guy who brought us the Paddington movies. December release date. Yes please.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Emilia Jones - Fairyland - She is in that classic spot of being the star of one of the biggest awards players, but she was the one who was left out of the party. Here, she gets her redemption nomination and…win? I think so. She also has the Sundance film Cat Person to keep her in the public eye.
2. Annette Bening - Nyad - The filmmakers who brought us The Rescue made this film about the 64 year old swimmer who was the first person to swim from Florida to Cuba. Bening is going to win one of these years. This sounds like the kind of physical as well as emotional work that the Oscars usually go for.
3. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple - She could be the first American Idol winner with an Oscar nomination. She is the perfect kind of personality for the role of Celie, but isn’t she a bit too old? I am intrigued by this as much as anything, and if the movie is any good, she will absolutely be the reason why.
4. Cate Blanchett - The New Boy - She is always worth mentioning. Her role is described as a “renegade nun”, which implies that she gets to sink her teeth into a villainous role in one of the major titles of the year. If she wins this year, then I will feel even better about this nomination…in this category or supporting.
5. Helen Mirren - Golda - Mirren stars as Golda Meir, the "Iron Lady of Israel", in this movie directed by the Oscar winning filmmaker behind the short film Skin. The initial production photos show a complete physical transformation. It has been 13 years since her last nomination.
Others in contention
6. Thomasin McKenzie - Eileen - She is the title character as an unassuming young woman whose life turns when she befriends a coworker at a prison. She has been in some real Oscar players since her arrival a handful of years ago, and this could be the one that gets her that young actress nomination that vaults her into the mainstream consciousness.
7. Natalie Portman - May December - She appears to play an actress who is researching a role by interviewing a married couple about their tabloid romance. It sounds like something she can really nail, and it has been a half dozen years since we have last seen her really do something great. Todd Haynes does wonders for his actresses.
8. Kate Winslet - Lee - She isn’t the beloved Oscar queen she once was, but this sounds totally in her lane. Or even maybe a step out in an even more Oscary direction. Maybe I am just trying to highlight some first time contenders, but she really has as good of a chance as anyone to be nominated for this type of material playing a war photographer.
9. Daisy Ridley - Young Woman and the Sea - This is the true story of Gertrude Ederle, the first woman to swim the English Channel. Ridley needs a big awards breakout role, and here she gets the Oscar-nominated director of Kon-Tiki and the writer of Catch Me If You Can. Sounds like a winner to me!
10. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn - She is still looking for her second nomination, and being directed by Emerald Fennell should really show off her talents. And starring in a movie about aristocrats? I can’t think of many actresses better suited for such a challenge. She is probably more supporting, but who knows at this point?
11. Julia Garner - The Royal Hotel - The TV favorite returns for another Kitty Green movie, and I can absolutely see this being the one that brings her into the film awards conversation. She has such a unique personality and singular talent, she deserves a big starring vehicle. I’m hoping this is it.
12. Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun - Ronan stars as a woman getting out of rehab and returning to her hometown and needing to come to grips with memories that are making her struggle with her sobriety. It is by Nora Fingsheidt (The Unforgivable), and Ronan is sort of a regular at this point. Keep an eye on the festival run for this movie.
13. Tilda Swinton - The End - She has just one nomination, but here we get her combining with a talented documentarian making his first feature film, and she plays in a dystopian setting about the last human family. I can’t think of an actress more suited for that kind of role/vibe.
14. Margot Robbie - Barbie - She is the statuesque Barbie doll in Gerwig’s film. It comes out in July, so we will know a lot about it soon, but it looks and sounds unreal. It probably isn’t awards stuff, but I don’t want to underestimate her.
15. Kristen Stewart - Love Lies Bleeding - British filmmaker Rose Glass (Saint Maude) directs this movie that has the description of a “romance fueled by ego, desire, and the American Dream”. Stewart is now part of the club, so we can pay attention to her choices with real awards interest. This sounds like a TIFF hit.
16. Emily Blunt - Pain Hustlers - This is a book adaptation about a mother who helps a bankrupt pharmacy out of debt and leads to a criminal conspiracy. It is directed by David Yates (Harry Potter films) and has a really cool supporting cast. She will get her first nomination soon, and this year she also has Oppenheimer to keep her in the hunt.
17. Claire Foy - Strangers - Foy stars with Paul Mescal in Andrew Haigh’s (45 Years) adaptation about a screenwriter who finds that his long-dead parents are living and not aging. I assume she is playing the mother role, and she will have that recoil nomination push after probably missing for Women Talking. But then again…it didn’t work after First Man. She keeps knocking at the door, and starring alongside Mescal will be a good look for her.
18. Cailee Spaeny - Priscilla - She has made appearances lately in On the Basis of Sex and Mare of Easttown, and she has the title role in the Presley biopic. I don’t know what the optics of the movie will be, but she absolutely needs to be mentioned here.
19. Keira Knightley - Boston Strangler - Knightley plays the reporter who broke the story about the title serial killer, to which she and her partner were met by sexism and scrutiny. Matt Ruskin (the underrated Crown Heights) is the filmmaker, and it sounds like a more compelling and more easily digestible take on the She Said format.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Jefferson White - Eileen - This is as big of a stab as I can take. I have no idea what his role is, but having seen him on Yellowstone and knowing his potential as a sinister presence, I can only imagine his role in a mysterious prison drama will be something to remember. I’m probably crazy, but take it or leave it.
2. Raul Castillo - Cassandro - He has really come onto the scene in the last few years with The Inspection, Hustle, Cha Cha Real Smooth, along with a Spirit nomination for We Are Animals. I really don’t know what his character is in the true story of the gay wrestling icon, but he is the type of actor who can absolutely stand out in an ensemble film.
3. Ben Whishaw - Bad Behaviour - This is a Sundance premiere, so we already know if I am right about this, but it is the directorial debut of Alice Englert about a former child actress at a spiritual retreat, and Whishaw appears to play some sort of cult leader. He is another one of those Women Talking performers who are being overlooked for a nomination, so he could get that following year bump if it really takes (or took) Sundance by storm.
4. Hugo Weaving - The Royal Hotel - His role could be anything, but I expect him to be a pretty brutal hotel owner or manipulative force in some way. He is one of those great character actors who has never gotten a fair shake by awards, and this could be the type of project that finally does it for him.
5. Jeremy Pope - The Collaboration - Playing alongside Bettany’s Andy Warhol, 2022 breakthrough star Pope gets to play Jean-Michel Basquiat, a role which nearly got Jeffrey Wright a nomination in 1996. I expect the McCarten-written script to give both actors room to show off their talents. The release date will be key for this one.
Others in contention
6. Jonathan Pryce - One Life - The Academy loves a validation nomination. Pryce went almost his whole career without being singled out with a nomination until he finally got in 4 years ago. Here he plays the friend of Winton who also helped with the refugees. It could be Hopkins that gets the supporting nod, but I just have the suspicion, especially after 2022 saw Hopkins in these baity supporting roles get completely ignored, that Pryce will shine through in this one.
7. Mahershala Ali - Leave the World Behind - He has two nominations and two wins. In a cast that includes Julia Roberts, Ethan Hawke, and Kevin Bacon, he is certainly the most beloved by awards. He could be one of those character actors who just always gets in. I am leaving him just outside, though, because I have no idea what anyone’s role is just yet.
8. Paul Bettany - Here - I don’t want to predict a double nomination as his first long overdue nomination, but he can absolutely own with this cast around him. Zemeckis always gives his actors room to play it up, and while that only comes sporadically with Bettany, it might be the right kind of scenario for him to let loose. Or he can be the only one not overdoing it, which can be rewarded too.
9. Scoot McNairy - Fairyland - He plays the father character in the autobiographical film about AIDS and the life of raising a child as a gay man in the 70-80s US. He has never been close to a nomination, and that needs to change.
10. Jeremy Allen White - The Iron Claw - This is a story from Martha Marcy May Marlene director Sean Durkin, and it is a true story about a family of professional wrestlers. He is getting all the love right now for his TV work, so a supporting nomination for a likely indie hit doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. He is starring alongside Lily James, Harris Dickinson, and Zac Efron.
11. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers - There appears to be three principal characters in the movie, and one is this younger actor with no credits to his name. Payne has pulled quite a few people out of obscurity, and kid performances in this vein have succeeded in the past. He could have the Lucas Hedges path to a supporting nomination.
12. Tom Hardy - Havoc / The Bikeriders - Havoc is an action-thriller about political corruption from the director of The Raid (Gareth Evans), and The Bikeriders is a Jeff Nichols-directed movie about a motorcycle club starring Austin Butler. Give me both of these movies right now!
13. Nicholas Hoult - Nosferatu - I have no idea what he is actually doing in Robert Eggers’s film, but he is one of those actors who seems primed for a big Oscar push. He will need to steal the show from Bill Skarsgaard, who is playing Count Orlok.
14. James Cromwell - Rebel Ridge - Indie darling Jeremy Saulnier directs this hard action film movie about American systemic injustices, in a way I’m sure only he can portray. It is a cast of faces we know, but he is the lone Oscar nominee in the group and likely the only reason I can justify mentioning this movie.
15. Garrett Hedlund - Keyhole Garden - He has made his rounds in Oscar caliber movies for the better part of 20 years. This might be the type of movie that puts him in the awards conversation, likely playing some sort of border patrolman, which is right in his wheelhouse.
16. Anders Danielsen Lie - Mothers’ Instinct - The acclaimed cinematographer behind At Eternity’s Gate directs this film about sisterly bonds and guilt. Lie was the standout in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World, and here he can steal an American production from Anne Hathaway and Jessica Chastain if it is the right kind of character. It is one of the more intriguing films on the board.
17. Jacob Elordi - Saltburn - His Euphoria character has had its ups and downs with audiences, but we are all astonished by his talent. Having Fennell handpick him for this role says something, but it could also just be a Max Greenfield type of deal where he was just the perfect personality for a role that wrote itself. I just want to see this. He is also playing Elvis in Priscilla, which is bound to be underwhelming after seeing Austin Butler, but it can’t hurt his exposure.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple - The Orange is the New Black star gets the Oscar nominated role (played in 1985 by Oprah). She has the range to shine in any role, but this seems particularly perfect for her. The movie gets the big Christmas release, and she will be the one everyone is chasing the shadow of throughout awards season.
2. Robin Wright - Here - Reuniting with her Forrest Gump director has to be the best chance she has at an Oscar nomination. She was tragically snubbed for that film, and here she has a great supporting cast in something that will likely be somewhat episodic and let her own the screen for segments. She is one of the 5 best actors in the world without a nomination.
3. Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers - From the plot summaries, she appears to be the emotional core of the movie, playing a school chef whose son was killed in Vietnam. If someone appears in a big role in an Alexander Payne movie, he or she has a real chance at a nomination. I am more almost tempted to blindly put her #1.
4. Saoirse Ronan - Blitz - She could easily be the lead in the movie, but it is really hard to tell at this point. The 4-time nominee hasn’t been nominated in 4 years, and she has a couple other pretty high profile films in the mix this year. She is a go-to for British directors, and for good reason. I expect her to absolutely shine for Steve McQueen.
5. Lena Olin - One Life - She plays Nicholas Winton’s wife in the Best Picture contender. She is one of those faces and character actors who is never singled out. She got a single nomination back in 1989, and here is probably her best chance to really stand out in a highly buzzed film. When the Academy really loves a movie, they just nominate it everywhere, and she will be swept in on that wave.
Others in contention
6. Carey Mulligan - Bernstein - She plays the wife role in the Leonard Bernstein biopic. She is always extraordinary in every single movie, and here I expect no different. She may even be billed as lead in a The Theory of Everything kind of way, which could help her cause. She has gotten to the point of being overdue, so if she misses here, it will be a pretty big gut punch.
7. Renate Reinsve - The Governesses - This is a movie by Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), and it is about three governesses who rebel. The star of The Worst Person in the World plays alongside Lily-Rose Depp and Squid Game actress Hoyeon in this film, and I fully expect her to shine in that group. If this is completed in time, this could be a player in every category.
8. Julianne Moore - May December - She is probably the lead…or maybe it doesn’t matter. The last time Todd Haynes made a romance-drama, it got both actresses nominated. The categories didn’t really matter, but it sounds like Portman will have the protagonist focus.
9. Anne Hathaway - Eileen - She hasn’t really had a big buzzed role in a decade. Here, we can only assume that she is a free spirit type of character who takes the lead out of her comfort zone. She can absolutely be wicked and seductive. I almost feel like this is a little low for her, but we will see shortly out of Sundance.
10. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer - She is one of the best actors in the world without a nomination, which is just ridiculous at this point. She is the wife character of the atomic bomb creator, which can absolutely lead to some emotional scenes and complicated conversations. Keep an eye on this one. The only acting nomination for a Nolan movie was a one-in-a-million Joker role by Heath Ledger, but she can absolutely change that.
11. Carrie Coon - Boston Strangler - In She Said, the supporting character reporter was the one who got all the good reviews, so maybe Coon is the next in that line. She plays Jean Cole, who helped Loretta McLaughlin uncover and report the story of the Boston Strangler.
12. Catherine O’Hara - Pain Hustlers - She deserves an Oscar run at some point, especially after all the love she got for Schitt’s Creek. Here, she stars in David Yates’s film about criminal conspiracy in a recently bankrupt business. If she has the right type of role (it is all speculation at this point), then she can steal the show.
13. Adele Exarchopolous - Passages - This is a Sundance film, and it is by indie darling Ira Sachs. It is about a longtime gay couple who run into trouble when one of the men has an affair with a woman. I’m guessing she is that woman, and after her breakout in Blue Is the Warmest Color 10 years ago, she has been searching for the right kind of role to get back into the awards fray. This could be it…if it is big enough.
14. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari - She is a favorite of the Academy, and here she gets the all important wife role. Whether it is the supportive wife role or the complicit wife role, it will be juicy as hell for Cruz.
15. Alicia Vikander - Firebrand - This is a “horror-history” movie about the marriage of Queen Catherine Parr and Henry VIII. She plays Parr, and it is just a weird movie worth tracking. It is directed by acclaimed Algerian director Karim Aïnouz.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. One Life - Lucinda Coxon, Nick Drake - Coxon has been nominated for two BAFTA awards, including for The Danish Girl. The movie is the one to beat in the major categories, and even when it is not necessarily a flashy screenplay, the Oscars still throw Original Screenplay awards at the movies they love. I expect this to be a player in all categories, and there isn’t really a high profile screenwriter that the Academy loves in the running this year.
2. Blitz - Steve McQueen - These aren’t the types of films that win screenplay awards, but if it is as popular as it should be, then this will be a pretty easy nomination for McQueen. The Academy loves their writer-directors, and his last big awards player won in the Adapted category (although it was not his screenplay). The Academy will probably look at a capital bombing story as being pretty timely, which will only help his cause.
3. The Holdovers - Dave Hemingson - He is a TV writer, but getting Payne to take on your script is a big deal. Bob Nelson was a nobody (and still kinda is), but his screenplay turned into a top Oscar player because Payne liked his script. I expect this to be something truly special.
4. "Untitled" - Ethan Coen, Tricia Cooke - Ethan Coen and his wife Tricia Cooke (also a longtime editing collaborator of the brothers) write this movie directed by only Ethan, and it is evidently some sort of road comedy. Nobody really knows, but we all know what Ethan brings as opposed to Joel. The cast includes Beanie Feldstein, Margaret Qualley, and 7 Days star Geraldine Viswanathan.
5. Bernstein - Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer - Cooper’s script was nominated for his previous film, and the Oscar winning writer of Spotlight Singer is becoming the go-to hired hand for numerous high profile projects. Biopic screenplays are never the easiest sell, but with these two writers, it shouldn’t have a problem staying in the running.
Others in contention
6. Saltburn - Emerald Fennell - Her first film won this category, so she could eventually be the type of filmmaker who is just put in this category every time she makes a movie. This one will need to be immaculately written to work and appeal to the Oscar voters. She can and probably will do it, but with so many of the contenders being original scripts, she just misses out on the invite this year.
7. Keyhole Garden - Marco Perego Saldana, Rick Rapoza - The movie is about immigration policies and how they affect people on the US southern border. It sounds a bit like Crash in the best ways. I am probably hyping this up a bit too much, but this is one movie I kept coming back to in my research.
8. Passages - Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias - The movie seems topical and sounds like it has complicated character dynamics. His movies have been getting more exposure in recent years, and Sundance has been catapulting smaller films at a greater rate. We will know about this film shortly.
9. Elemental - Brenda Hsueh - After a bit of a lull by Pixar, this sounds more like the Inside Out kind of creative storytelling we have come accustomed to. Peter Sohn (The Good Dinosaur) directs this one about two spirits in a place where fire, water, land, and air all coexist. Expect some tears. This one comes out in June, and I expect great things.
10. The New Boy - Warwick Thornton - The movie will likely rely on its script for a lot of the drama, but it doesn’t sound like the type of movie that really has flashy Original Screenplay aspirations. If it is the contender that it sounds like, however, this will be way too low of a ranking.
11. The Collaboration - Anthony McCarten - He has two actors in the running for nominations, so I can’t help but assume the script will be brilliant. He has four nominations at this point, two for screenwriting. He can absolutely play with Baquiat and Warhol in creative ways and bring out the best in the actors.
12. The Royal Hotel - Kitty Green, Oscar Redding - The movie sounds like more of an experience movie than a writing achievement, but sometimes this category goes both ways. Green had a subtle and effective screenplay for The Assistant, and this one seems to have much more room to breathe.
13. May December - Samy Burch, Alex Machanik - This romance drama is the first theatrical screenplay for this writing duo, which sometimes helps in this category. Letting Todd Haynes make your screenplay look as alluring as he does every frame of every movie can’t their cause hurt either.
14. The Actor - Duke Johnson, Stephen Cooney - Johnson’s only other movie was a nominee in the Animated Feature category, and it was a dialogue heavy and wild screenplay. If this one hits the way it could, then we could be looking at a threat in multiple categories.
17. The Palace - Roman Polanski, Ewa Piakowski, Jerzy Skolimowski - Joining forces with the Skolimowski (EO), Polanski has an intriguing sounding interlocking story drama here, which always lends well to screenplay mentions. The movie is getting released internationally in April, so if reception is strong, it sounds like it could be a festival player this fall.
18. The Iron Claw - Sean Durkin - The Nest had him getting real awards buzz from critics, but the movie was too meditative and small. This is a star-studded wrestling movie that could run the festival circuit and really get him in the major awards conversation for the first time since Martha Marcy May Marlene.
19. Boston Strangler - Matt Ruskin - If the movie is a hit, it is easy to get nominated for murder mysteries and journalism movies. He puts the two together here, but the only thing holding back its potential is the Hulu release in March. It is going to need to absolutely slay audiences to be remembered in a year.
20. Air Jordan - Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Alex Convery - Convery’s Blacklist spec script got picked up by the Oscar-winning writing duo, which Affleck also directed, and it chronicles Sonny Vaccaro and how he got Nike to sign Michael Jordan. Damon plays Vaccaro, and Affleck plays Phil Knight. Viola Davis, Jason Bateman, Chris Tucker, Marlon Wayans… I don’t want to oversell this because it could be absolutely atrocious, but I am out of this world intrigued by it.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Leave the World Behind - Sam Esmail - Esmail’s writing has always been his best quality, and when you hear him in interviews, he has this articulate way about him that reminds of Sorkin. I might be overstating the potential of the movie, but this is the type of story that seems to be anointed all the time. Original Screenplay is the category for newcomers; Adapted is the “sophisticated” category.
2. Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan - Adapting material is somewhat of a new thing for Nolan. The Prestige failed to get nominated here, despite being one of his most long-lasting hits. This might not even be completely about the screenplay the way most of his time-bending and mind-bending movies are, but he has developed enough goodwill that this will be easy for him if the movie is actually a hit.
3. Fairyland - Andrew Durham - The movie has the feel of movies such as Beautiful Boy, but depending on how the movie is relayed, it could be a really interesting script. It also promises to be the movie that has everyone weeping, which is always a strong way to vault your film into the conversation.
4. Eileen - Luke Goebel - One of the writers of Causeway immediately gets another chance to really slay audiences. The movie sounds like it is coming from a difficult to adapt book, but with the talent involved I expect it to work. If the actors have as much room to shine as in his first script, then expect some fireworks here.
5. Lee - Liz Hannah, Marion Hume - Here we have the acclaimed writer of The Post and The Dropout, and the material is absolutely something that begs for Oscar attention. This all female led war correspondent story should get the attention of all awards voters and audiences alike.
Others in contention
6. The Boys in the Boat - Josh Hartmere, Chris Weitz, Mark L Smith - We have a combination of the writers of The Revenant and About a Boy coming together for a George Clooney-directed sports movie set in part in Nazi Germany. That sounds all over the place, and it is just intriguing enough to almost predict it for everything.
7. Priscilla - Sofia Coppola - She is a previous winner for screenplay, which can’t hurt her chances. Biopic scripts aren’t as beloved, but if she plays up the drama as opposed to the hagiography of the subject, then she could still make her work stand out.
8. Strangers - Andrew Haigh - Haigh’s previous films Lean on Pete and 45 Years were awards players, and this sounds like the kind of creative yet grounded fantasy film that can really play well with the Academy. We will have to wait and see, but his films are almost universally respected.
9. Dune: Part Two - Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve - The original got nominated in this category. This part even sounds more complex and interesting, but I am just being pessimistic and thinking this part will fail relatively. Here’s to being wrong!
10. Ferrari - Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy-Martin - This is one of those strange cases where the script has been around for decades. Mann’s co-writer has been dead for 14 years. That makes a nomination in this category a bit of a chore, but it depends. It could either go the way of Fences or Mank. I hope this is good, but I have more reservations than reasons for optimism.
11. La Cocina - Arnold Wesker - I am not sure if he is credited as the screenwriter. It is based on his 1957 play, but again, there is precedent for this type of nomination after Fences. It will likely not be that big of a hit, but it could be an indie darling.
12. Barbie - Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach - This writing duo is going to be something to behold. It needs a monster box office and probably over 95% on Rotten Tomatoes for anyone to take it seriously, but it can happen. I need to see this.
13. Cat Person - Michelle Ashford - Susanna Fogel (a host of TV credits) directs this Sundance movie about the relationship between a college student and an older man. It sounds a bit like Ghost World, and it stars Emilia Jones (CODA). We will see how this develops, but it certainly has potential. Ashford is an Emmy-nominated writer who brought us the underseen Operation Mincemeat in 2022.
14. Dumb Money - Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Bloom - The writers are from Orange Is the New Black, and the story is as cool as anything in this whole article. It is about the GameStop stock rise in 2021 that was brought on by Reddit, and the cast is killer. If this gets a festival run in the fall, I will be thrilled. It sounds terrific.
15. Here - Robert Zemeckis, Eric Roth - This due brought us one of the most beloved movies of the 1990s, but it also hasn’t aged the best. I can’t imagine Eric Roth writing a movie set in a single room, but I’m here for it. The actors will make their words sound incredible.
16. F***ing Identical Twins - Aaron Jackson, Josh Sharp - These two TV writers get Larry Charles (Borat) to direct their wild comedy-musical about business rivals who discover they are identical twins and decide to switch places. So…yeah, it is a remake of The Parent Trap. It stars Nathan Lane, Bowen Yang, and Megal Mullally. What the hell?! Weirder things have happened.
There you have it! I’m sure this will be torn apart by some of you, especially the guys on the podcast. What movies are you most looking forward to in 2023? Which movies did I miss? Which performances are the most surefire awards contenders? Let me know in the comments!
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