2024 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

 #23

The Pittsburgh Pirates are quietly building one of the best young cores in baseball.  Is 2024 the year they break out and contend?

2023 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Oneil Cruz

MIP - Roansy Contreras

PTW - Endy Rodriguez

FP - Bryan Reynolds sign a big extension with the Pirates.

2023 Results

#23 - 76-86, 4th in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ke'Bryan Hayes

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Mitch Keller

The Pirates started the year out strong, but faded at the end.  Young players they are counting on like Ke'Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller took huge steps forward, while their most talented player, Oneil Cruz, spent most of the season injured with a broken leg.  Overall, 2023 was a solid step forward, especially when you add in that they extended star outfielder Bryan Reynolds through 2031 instead of trading him (as I predicted).

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates have become masters of the short term veteran contracts to compliment their young core.  So in comes veteran lefties Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez to stabilize the rotation.  Aroldis Chapman was brought in to strengthen the bullpen.  Michael A. Taylor is a sneaky good signing to man centerfield.  They didn't really have any significant subtractions outside of what they traded away at the deadline last season.

Most Important Hitter

Oneil Cruz

This was my answer last season as well, but after missing most of 2023 with his freak injury, it is even more the case this season.  Cruz is only entering his age 25 season and is probably still the most talented player on the roster.  He needs to pick his development up right where it left off if the Pirates are going to take any steps forward this season.  He got off to a pretty slow start in 2023 before the injury.  He needs to be 100% healthy and continuing to show that he can be the superstar shortstop Pittsburgh is expecting.

Most Important Pitcher

Marco Gonzales

The starting lineup for the Pirates can be lethal, but the rotation is not as secure.  Some veterans were brought in to help, and Marco might be the most important of the group.  He has spent the last 7 seasons as the ace of the Mariners' staff so he knows what it takes to be an innings eater and a veteran leader.  He was hurt most of last season, but even if his production is lackluster in 2024, his leadership and mentorship of the Pirates' young pitchers might be as important as anything else.

Prospect to Watch

Paul Skenes

The Pirates currently have the 9th best farm system in baseball with 5 players cracking the Top 100, all of which could debut in the next 18 months.  The most exciting of these is Paul Skenes.  The #1 overall pick in last year's draft, Skenes is a freak on the mound that could probably make the Opening Day start as the Pirates new ace and few would argue.  Instead he is starting this season in the minors, but his debut will be one of the most anticipated of 2024 whenever is does happen.

2024 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

I love what the Pirates are building.  It's only a matter of time before they are competing for the division title.  It helps that their division is possibly the worst in the league, but they should take another step forward in 2024 and be relevant for most of the season in the postseason talk.

Fearless Prediction

2024 will be the last season the Pirates finish under .500 this decade.

The strong core of talent the Pirates have at the big league level already, combined with the talent about to arrive, as well as the stars Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller signed for the foreseeable future, and the Pirates are one of the best positioned franchises in baseball.  They might not be ready to make a postseason run this season, but it will be the last season they are irrelevant for some time.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

 #24

The Pittsburgh Pirates may have finished with a second straight 100 loss season in 2022, but hopes haven't been higher since their last postseason run in 2015.  Are the Pirates about to turn the corner and break out in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#29 - 5th in NL Central

MIH - Bryan Reynolds

MIP - Mitch Keller

PTW - Oneil Cruz

2022 Results

#28 - 62-100, 4th in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ke'Bryan Hayes

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Mitch Keller

There hasn't been a more buzz-worthy 100 loss team in recent memory.  The Pirates were not a good team in 2022, but they were definitely a fun team.  Led by one of the most underrated superstars in Bryan Reynolds and two of the more exciting young phenoms in the sport in Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz, the Pirates turned more heads in 2022 than they have since the days of Starling Marte, Gerrit Cole, and MVP-winning Andrew McCutchen.

Additions / Subtractions

Speaking of Andrew McCutchen, he's back!  He is one of several veterans brought in this offseason to provide leadership as their young core develops.  He is joined by first basemen Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi, catcher Austin Hedges, outfielder Connor Joe, and the ageless wonder Rich Hill in the starting rotation.  Moving on are veterans like Michael Chavis, Kevin Newman, and Ben Gamel.  This biggest offseason news for the Pirates heading into the 2023 season is the move that wasn't made.  Bryan Reynolds requested a trade after contract extension talks stalled.  After setting the price for Reynolds extremely high, the Pirates had no takers willing to meet their demands.  So Reynolds is still a Pirate ... for now.

Most Important Hitter

Oneil Cruz

There were a lot of rookies that popped in 2022.  From Rookies of the Year Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris II, to World Series MVP Jeremy Pena, to budding ace Spencer Strider.  However, no rookie made jaws drop in 2022 quite like Oneil Cruz.  The 6'7" 220lb shortstop is entering his age 24 season, throws in the mid-90's from short to 1st, hits 120mph home run bullets, and is one of the fastest players in the big leagues.  No one has all the measurable traits quite like Cruz.  With all that said, in his 87 games in the majors in 2022, he had a 107 OPS+ with a .233 average, 17 homers, and striking out almost a third of the time.  He is crazy talented, but he needs to develop some discipline at the plate.  His development is one of the most important pieces to the puzzle that could lead to a successful season for the 2023 Pirates.

Most Important Pitcher

Roansy Contreras

With all the promise of their lineup, their pitching has not been near as heralded.  The Pirates have not really had a anywhere near an ace since trading away Gerrit Cole before the 2018 season.  Although Mitch Keller was probably considered their top starter last year (at least after Jose Quintana was traded), rookie Roansy Contreras may have had the most encouraging season.  In 21 games (18 starts), Contreras had a 110 ERA+ with 86 strikeouts in 95 innings.  If Contreras builds off the strong rookie campaign, the Pirates may have finally found their next young ace.

Prospect to Watch

Endy Rodriguez

When you consistently struggle to win like Pittsburgh has, you are bound to build up a strong farm system.  The Pirates currently boast a top 5 farm system in MLB with four prospects in the Top 100 Prospects in baseball.  Their #2 prospect (#55 overall) is Endy Rodriguez.  The 22 year old joined the Pirates organization in 2021 as part of the big Joe Musgrove trade, and ever since he showed up, he has hit.  Spanning three levels of the minors in 2021, the switch-hitter belted 25 home runs and slugged .590.  Naturally a catcher, Rodriguez has also seen time at 2nd base and the outfield.  It doesn't matter what position he plays, expect his bat to impact the Pirate lineup before the end of the season.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The Pirates won't quite be good yet in 2023, but they might be one of the most improved teams.  Their young talent is dynamic, their veteran newcomers will provide a great model and leadership base, and they will win some games.  Don't be surprised if they flirt with .500 entering the All Star break.

Fearless Prediction

Bryan Reynolds signs a big extension with the Pirates.

The drama surrounding the Pirates and Bryan Reynolds this offseason did not look good for the Pirates.  They have always been a fairly cheap organization going back to the early 90's with the Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla era.  Reynolds is not asking for unreasonable money considering how good he is.  If the Pirates improve the way they could this year, maybe they decide to ride the momentum and commit to a budding superstar.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

 #30

Spring Training is open and it looks like we are having something that much more resembles a full and normal baseball season in 2021!  Around this time every year, I love to look ahead and preview what the season will look like for every team.  We start at the bottom of my power rankings and work up to my predicted World Series champ.

Our first team is the team that was, by far, the worst team in the short 2020 season.  Is it possible after that horrible 2020 campaign, the Pirates have farther to fall before they turn the corner.  The answer might be yes.

2020 Predictions

#28 - 5th in NL Central

MIH - Bryan Reynolds

MIP - Chris Archer

PTW - Mitch Keller

FP - Chris Archer will be traded before the end of the season for one mid-level prospect.

2020 Results

#30: 19-41, 5th in NL Central

The Pirates quickly dropped all the way to the bottom of the league in 2020 as so many things went wrong in the shortened season.  Bryan Reynolds, the Pirates' breakout star in 2019, had a very disappointing season.  Chris Archer opted out of the last season of his deal with the Pirates.  Nothing went well for Derek Shelton in his first year as manager.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates had not entered a full rebuild until now.  This offseason, they traded Josh Bell to the Nationals, Jameson Taillon to the Yankees, and Joe Musgrove to the Padres.  They also let Trevor Williams and Chris Archer sign elsewhere.  With Archer's departure, we might be looking at one of, if not the, worst trade of the 21st century so far.

Most Important Hitter

Gregory Polanco

As the last holdover from the Pirates' playoff teams, you have to think Gregory Polanco will not be lasting much longer in Pittsburgh.  He has a team option after this year, so he could become a free agent after 2021, however he needs to reestablish his value this season as he has never really turned into the star his potential said he could be.  If he has a solid year and returns to hitting like he did in 2017 and 2018, he could be worth something on the trade market mid-season.  Otherwise, he will just walk away after the season.

Most Important Pitcher

Mitch Keller

With Musgrove, Archer, Williams, and Taillon all moving on, that leaves the young Mitch Keller as the ace of the Pirates' rotation.  Keller recovered from a rough debut in 2019 to have a solid season in 2020.  Now he is going to be asked to be one of the faces of the franchise moving forward and be a potential star.  He has the talent if it all comes together right.

Prospect to Watch

Ke'Bryan Hayes

In 2020, we finally saw the long-awaited debut of 2nd generation baseball phenom Ke'Bryan Hayes (son of Charlie Hayes).  In only 24 games, Hayes led the Pirates in WAR for the season.  He did maintain his rookie status, so he will enter 2021 as the team's starting 3rd baseman, the 9th best prospect in all of baseball, and the new star at the heart of the Pirates' lineup.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL Central

As bad as 2020 was for Pittsburgh, I think 2021 will be worse.  They don't have many veterans left, they don't have a ton top-tier young prospects ready to hit the big leagues right now, and the rest of their division is going to be very competitive.  They could be a 110+ loss team this year.

Fearless Prediction

Ke'Bryan Hayes will be an All Star and Rookie of the Year in 2021.

As bad as the Pirates are going to be, young Ke'Bryan Hayes will definitely be a standout and a reason to watch the otherwise irrelevant season they will have.  Look for him to be the sole Pirates representative at the Mid-Summer Classic and ride that all the way to a potential Rookie of the Year win when all is said and done.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#28

Today was supposed to be Opening Day, and it really makes me sad that we are reminded more how this worldwide quarantine is affecting our lives than celebrating one of my favorite days of the entire calendar.  However, the day will come, and when it does it will mean so much more than ever before.  In the meantime, let's keep going with my pre-season power rankings and previews.  Today's spotlight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates.  After peaking in the mid-2010's, there is very little left of those playoff teams.  Will 2020 make them competitive again, or will it continue their downward trend?

2019 Predictions

#23 - 5th in NL Central

MIH: Josh Bell

MIP: Chris Archer

PTW: Ke'Bryan Hayes

FP: This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.

2019 Results

#24 - 69-93, 5th in NL Central

When all is said and done, the Pirates might be my greatest triumph in prognosticating the 2019 season.  I correctly predicted their cellar finish in their division, missing their overall rank by only one spot (actual rank determined by draft position).  I said Josh Bell was their most important hitter, and he had the best season of his young career, hitting 37 homers with 116 RBI's with a 143 OPS+ and his first All Star appearance.  Chris Archer was indeed an important piece in their pitching staff, but after a career worst season in 2018, he followed it up with an even worse season in 2019 in his first full season in Pittsburgh.  It is looking like this might be one of the most lopsided trades of the decade (the Pirates gave up up-and-coming outfield Austin Meadows, potential ace Tyler Glasnow, and former first round pitcher Shane Baz to the Rays to get Archer).  I thought Ke'Bryan Hayes might get an accelerated track to the big leagues in 2019, but his debut will probably come this year instead.  Then my fearless prediction came true.  Clint Hurdle, the man who took the Pirates back to the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla and one of the most respected managers in baseball, was fired after the season.  I kinda nailed what the 2019 season for the Pirates was going to be!

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest addition for the Pirates this offseason was their new manager Derek Shelton, coming over from Minnesota where he was the bench coach.  Outside of some minor additions like pitcher Derek Holland and outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Guillermo Heredia, that is about it for what has come in to the organization.  The biggest subtraction this offseason was the trade of Starling Marte, the face of their franchise since Andrew McCutchen left a few years ago.

Most Important Hitter

Bryan Reynolds

Outside of Josh Bell's All Star season, the two biggest bright spots for the Pirates in 2019 were rookies Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman.  These two unknowns quickly became two of the team's best players, finishing the season as the Pirates' two top players in terms of WAR (4.1 for Reynolds, 3.1 for Newman).  Reynolds was definitely the eye-opener.  A former 2nd round pick and the centerpiece of the package that came to Pittsburgh in the Andrew McCutchen trade with the Giants in 2018, Reynolds made his debut in April and never looked back.  He hit .314 with 16 homers and 68 RBI's in 134 games, rounding out to a 131 OPS+ and finishing 4th in the Rookie of the Year vote behind phenoms like Pete Alonso, Mike Soroka, and Fernando Tatis Jr.  The Pirates see Reynolds (and Newman) as the start of their new wave of great young talent.  If he takes another leap forward like he did last season, he will be an All Star in 2020 and the face of the franchise.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is that the Pirates get something out of Chris Archer.  A player that was once one of the brightest young arms in the game, Archer is entering his age 31 season looking like his career is almost over.  In 2019, he went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and an 82 ERA+, well below average.  The Pirates paid for Archer as an ace and a top 10 pitcher in the game.  He has been one of their worst starters since he has arrived.  In a move that the Pirates thought was building towards a future cornerstone of their next wave of talent, they are just hoping Archer shows some flashes of his younger self to give him some trade value in his contract year.  Otherwise, they will have given up three top-tier prospects (two already splashing in the big leagues) for basically no production.

Prospect to Watch

Mitch Keller

The Pirates have three players in baseball's top 100 prospects, with two expected to be ready to make a major league impact in 2020.  One is Ke'Bryan Hayes who I mentioned last year.  The other is pitcher Mitch Keller.  Keller made his big league debut in 2019 and barely stayed under the innings limit to still be considered a "prospect," starting 11 games with mediocre results (1-5, 7.13 ERA), however don't be turned off by the early results.  He has a mid to upper 90's fastball with a nasty curve and slider.  He started the 2018 Futures Game, showing how the industry recognizes his star potential.  While other rookies will be looked at to get experience and show what they can do, Keller might have some added pressure entering the Pirates' rotation day one.  First, he has had his debut and got a decent amount of exposure to the big leagues last year.  Second, and most importantly, with a floundering Chris Archer and an injured Jameson Taillon (out for probably all of 2020 with Tommy John), the Pirates need Keller to be more than just a rookie trying to find his way.  Their success in 2020 is going to be closely tied to Keller's success, perhaps more so than any other rookie in the league.

2020 Prediction

5th in NL Central

This was one of the easiest predictions I had to make.  The Pirates are in a rebuild and have some serious potential moving forward.  However, this season is going to be rough simply because the other four teams in their division are all legit playoff contenders.  In fact, very few teams in the National League would be labeled as "rebuilding."  It's possible the Pirates take some big steps forward and finish with a similar or worse record just because of the level of competition.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer will be traded before the end of the season for one mid-level prospect.

I don't mean to obsess over this storyline, but I find it the most interesting part of what is happening in Pittsburgh right now.  Chris Archer will not be a part of the Pirates organization the next time they are competitive.  If that is the case, they need to try and separate themselves as soon as possible.  I have always liked Archer, and I will be rooting for him to have a rebound season, but it is starting to remind me of rooting for Felix Hernandez to bounce back the last couple seasons ... it just kept getting worse.  However, if Archer does bounce back, and he is able to show signs he could return to something resembling the ace he was in Tampa, the Pirates should unload him for whatever prospects they can get.  He does have a club option for 2021 at $11 million, but I don't see that being picked up.  The Pirates will be buying at the peak and selling at the basement, but it is all they have.  Let's just hope Archer is able to pitch well enough to make him valuable enough to be sold.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#23

The Pittsburgh Pirates had another productive season in 2018.  With the NL Central becoming the most competitive division in baseball, will the Pirates be able to repeat the success that has defined their team in recent years?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL Central

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

2018 Results

82-79, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates had a competitive season in 2018, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2015, competing for a Wild Card spot well into September.  This was quite an accomplishment considering their ace, Gerrit Cole, and their face, Andrew McCutchen, both moved on before the season.  However, the depth of the NL Central left the Pirates in 4th place.  Instead of trying to gather more talent and trading a stud like Marte, they went the other direction and gave up prospects to bring in a new ace in Chris Archer.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest addition for the Pirates in 2019 was the trade for Archer at the Deadline in 2018.  Speaking strictly offseason, the Pirates were extremely quiet.  Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison, mainstays in the middle infield for most of the last decade, both signed with the Detroit Tigers in free agency.  Harrison was replaced at 2nd internally with Adam Frazier.  Mercer will be replaced by Erik Gonzalez, a 27 year old shortstop acquired in a low level trade this offseason from the Indians.  The only other significant move the Pirates made was bringing in Lonnie Chisenhall as a utility guy.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

Josh Bell was an elite prospect when he made his debut for the Pirates in 2016.  Now he is entering his third full season at the age of 26.  After a solid 2017, Bell took a step back in 2018 with only 12 home runs and 62 RBI's.  Bell is starting to graduate into veteran territory this season, and he needs to get back on track to being the top slugger his talent shows he can be.  If that happens, he will be an important anchor in the middle of the Pirates order.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Pirates paid a high price for Chris Archer last season even though he was in the middle of his worst season as a professional, finishing with an ERA+ below average for the first time in his career.  The Pirates were banking on the idea that this was an anomaly and not a trend.  Archer has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he is also entering his age 30 season.  He needs to show he is still elite and not on the decline.  If he bounces back, this was a great trade.  If not, this might go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history considering what they gave up to get him.

Prospect to Watch

Ke'Bryan Hayes

The Pirates have a decent farm system, stocked with even more pitching help to make their rotation elite.  However, the best hitter in their farm system is third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, the son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes.  This 22 year old hit right around .300 in AA last season and has a chance to make an impact down the stretch in 2019 at a position that is not a strength for the Pirates right now.  Either way, he is their third baseman of the future.

2019 Prediction

5th in NL Central

I feel there are tiers in baseball this year.  There are about 8 to 10 teams that are elite and about 7 teams that won't be that competitive (the ones already profiled).  The rest of the league is in the middle, fighting for that last playoff spot or two.  I see the Pirates as that dividing line.  They will probably hover right around .500 again and flirt with a playoff berth again.  However, this division will be so competitive, .500 might put them in the cellar.  The Reds are one of the most improved teams in the league, and the three teams above them are not going anywhere.  It may be another successful disappointment in Pittsburgh in 2019.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.

Clint Hurdle is about as good of a baseball guy as you will find.  However, something feels like there is a clock ticking in Pittsburgh with him.  If they do indeed finish in the cellar this season, regardless of record, I can see a scenario where he either is fired or chooses to walk away from the team.  He has definitely brought a new level of success to Pittsburgh, but they have never been able to get over the hump to being elite.  Maybe it would be time for a fresh perspective.