2019 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#23

The Pittsburgh Pirates had another productive season in 2018.  With the NL Central becoming the most competitive division in baseball, will the Pirates be able to repeat the success that has defined their team in recent years?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL Central

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

2018 Results

82-79, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates had a competitive season in 2018, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2015, competing for a Wild Card spot well into September.  This was quite an accomplishment considering their ace, Gerrit Cole, and their face, Andrew McCutchen, both moved on before the season.  However, the depth of the NL Central left the Pirates in 4th place.  Instead of trying to gather more talent and trading a stud like Marte, they went the other direction and gave up prospects to bring in a new ace in Chris Archer.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest addition for the Pirates in 2019 was the trade for Archer at the Deadline in 2018.  Speaking strictly offseason, the Pirates were extremely quiet.  Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison, mainstays in the middle infield for most of the last decade, both signed with the Detroit Tigers in free agency.  Harrison was replaced at 2nd internally with Adam Frazier.  Mercer will be replaced by Erik Gonzalez, a 27 year old shortstop acquired in a low level trade this offseason from the Indians.  The only other significant move the Pirates made was bringing in Lonnie Chisenhall as a utility guy.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

Josh Bell was an elite prospect when he made his debut for the Pirates in 2016.  Now he is entering his third full season at the age of 26.  After a solid 2017, Bell took a step back in 2018 with only 12 home runs and 62 RBI's.  Bell is starting to graduate into veteran territory this season, and he needs to get back on track to being the top slugger his talent shows he can be.  If that happens, he will be an important anchor in the middle of the Pirates order.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Pirates paid a high price for Chris Archer last season even though he was in the middle of his worst season as a professional, finishing with an ERA+ below average for the first time in his career.  The Pirates were banking on the idea that this was an anomaly and not a trend.  Archer has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he is also entering his age 30 season.  He needs to show he is still elite and not on the decline.  If he bounces back, this was a great trade.  If not, this might go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history considering what they gave up to get him.

Prospect to Watch

Ke'Bryan Hayes

The Pirates have a decent farm system, stocked with even more pitching help to make their rotation elite.  However, the best hitter in their farm system is third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, the son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes.  This 22 year old hit right around .300 in AA last season and has a chance to make an impact down the stretch in 2019 at a position that is not a strength for the Pirates right now.  Either way, he is their third baseman of the future.

2019 Prediction

5th in NL Central

I feel there are tiers in baseball this year.  There are about 8 to 10 teams that are elite and about 7 teams that won't be that competitive (the ones already profiled).  The rest of the league is in the middle, fighting for that last playoff spot or two.  I see the Pirates as that dividing line.  They will probably hover right around .500 again and flirt with a playoff berth again.  However, this division will be so competitive, .500 might put them in the cellar.  The Reds are one of the most improved teams in the league, and the three teams above them are not going anywhere.  It may be another successful disappointment in Pittsburgh in 2019.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.

Clint Hurdle is about as good of a baseball guy as you will find.  However, something feels like there is a clock ticking in Pittsburgh with him.  If they do indeed finish in the cellar this season, regardless of record, I can see a scenario where he either is fired or chooses to walk away from the team.  He has definitely brought a new level of success to Pittsburgh, but they have never been able to get over the hump to being elite.  Maybe it would be time for a fresh perspective.