Saturday, March 16, 2019

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#21

The Arizona Diamondbacks finished just over .500 in 2018, but watched three of their best players leave over the offseason.  Will their departure help the D'Backs take a step forward in 2019, or will they take a step back?

2018 Predictions
4th in NL West
This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

2018 Results
82-80, 3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks followed up a playoff run in 2017 with a solid season in 2018.  Although they did not make the playoffs, the two teams ahead of them in the division did.  Through all that, they continued to be competitive through the ups and downs of the season.  Although there were several rumors, Zack Greinke is still on the roster even if the D'Backs may have wanted to move him.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason, the Diamondbacks decided to walk a fine line between starting a full rebuild and going for it all this season.  In terms of WAR, four of the team's top eight players from last season are no longer on the roster.  A.J. Pollock, Clay Buchholz, and Patrick Corbin moved on via free agency while the face of the franchise, Paul Goldschmidt, was traded to the Cardinals.  Very little was brought back in return.  Catcher Alex Avila, second baseman Wilmer Flores, and centerfielder Adam Jones were signed in free agency.  Starter Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly were brought in as part of the Goldschmidt deal.  Needless to say, the production in return is not looking like it will match the production brought back.

Most Important Hitter
Ketel Marte

In what was originally billed as a trade that exchanged Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker with the Mariners, the secondary pieces of that trade have quickly become the most productive.  For the Mariners, that player was Mitch Haniger.  For the Diamondbacks, that player was Ketel Marte.  As the D'Backs second baseman last season, Ketel posted a 3.3 WAR season, making him their fifth best player behind Goldschmidt, Corbin, Greinke, and David Peralta.  In 2019, the Diamondbacks are looking to use Marte's athleticism a little more.  At first, he was slated to be their starting centerfielder.  Now, with Adam Jones on the roster, it is looking like he will be more of a super utility guy.  With the loss of Pollock and Goldschmidt, Marte will be an important piece for his speed and versatility.

Most Important Pitcher
Zack Greinke

When Zack Greinke signed his huge free agent deal in Arizona in 2016, it was going to be really hard for him to live up to the dollar amount now attached to him.  However, he has done about as good of a job as he could.  In his three seasons in Arizona, Greinke has posted an ERA+ of 102, 147, and 135 even though his velocity has taken a dip.  However, he is entering his age 35 season with three years left on his huge deal.  Realistically, the Diamondbacks hope he pitches well enough that they could unload his high price tag for a decent return.  However, they probably will not find the suitor they want.  That means they just need to hope he stays productive enough to lead the rotation.

Prospect to Watch
Taylor Widener

As a part of the trade that brought Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks, one of the other pieces to go to the desert was Taylor Widener, a 24 year old hard-throwing right handed pitcher.  A former 12th round pick by the Yankees, Widener has value in both the rotation and the bullpen.  After dominating AA in 2018, he should start the season with a great opportunity in AAA.  If that goes well, he should be one of the first options if a rotation spot opens up.  If a spot doesn't open, he could help bolster a bullpen that lost a few pieces from last season.

2019 Prediction
4th in NL West

Considering everything they lost, it would be impossible for the Diamondbacks not to take a step back.  With that said, they should be fun to watch.  They still have solid pitching without Corbin.  They should still have a solid offense without Goldschmidt and Pollock.  There should be some success that might even keep them on the periphery of the Wild Card race for a little while.  However, the Diamondbacks are not looking at 2019.  Some mild success will not convince the Diamondbacks to sacrifice some future success to make a run this season.

Fearless Prediction
The Diamondbacks will get more success out of centerfield this season than A.J. Pollock will give the Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are planning to go with a combination of Ketel Marte and Adam Jones in centerfield this season.  Marte has the chance to be a rising star, and Adam Jones is one of the most productive and consistent centerfielders of the last decade.  In six full seasons in the big leagues, A.J. Pollock has only played more the 113 games twice.  So the Diamondbacks replaced injuries with consistency and durability.  When Pollock plays, he is one of the best.  However, I have a feeling the Diamondbacks are not going to regret letting Pollock move on.

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