2019 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#21

The Arizona Diamondbacks finished just over .500 in 2018, but watched three of their best players leave over the offseason.  Will their departure help the D'Backs take a step forward in 2019, or will they take a step back?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL West

This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

2018 Results

82-80, 3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks followed up a playoff run in 2017 with a solid season in 2018.  Although they did not make the playoffs, the two teams ahead of them in the division did.  Through all that, they continued to be competitive through the ups and downs of the season.  Although there were several rumors, Zack Greinke is still on the roster even if the D'Backs may have wanted to move him.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason, the Diamondbacks decided to walk a fine line between starting a full rebuild and going for it all this season.  In terms of WAR, four of the team's top eight players from last season are no longer on the roster.  A.J. Pollock, Clay Buchholz, and Patrick Corbin moved on via free agency while the face of the franchise, Paul Goldschmidt, was traded to the Cardinals.  Very little was brought back in return.  Catcher Alex Avila, second baseman Wilmer Flores, and centerfielder Adam Jones were signed in free agency.  Starter Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly were brought in as part of the Goldschmidt deal.  Needless to say, the production in return is not looking like it will match the production brought back.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

In what was originally billed as a trade that exchanged Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker with the Mariners, the secondary pieces of that trade have quickly become the most productive.  For the Mariners, that player was Mitch Haniger.  For the Diamondbacks, that player was Ketel Marte.  As the D'Backs second baseman last season, Ketel posted a 3.3 WAR season, making him their fifth best player behind Goldschmidt, Corbin, Greinke, and David Peralta.  In 2019, the Diamondbacks are looking to use Marte's athleticism a little more.  At first, he was slated to be their starting centerfielder.  Now, with Adam Jones on the roster, it is looking like he will be more of a super utility guy.  With the loss of Pollock and Goldschmidt, Marte will be an important piece for his speed and versatility.

Most Important Pitcher

Zack Greinke

When Zack Greinke signed his huge free agent deal in Arizona in 2016, it was going to be really hard for him to live up to the dollar amount now attached to him.  However, he has done about as good of a job as he could.  In his three seasons in Arizona, Greinke has posted an ERA+ of 102, 147, and 135 even though his velocity has taken a dip.  However, he is entering his age 35 season with three years left on his huge deal.  Realistically, the Diamondbacks hope he pitches well enough that they could unload his high price tag for a decent return.  However, they probably will not find the suitor they want.  That means they just need to hope he stays productive enough to lead the rotation.

Prospect to Watch

Taylor Widener

As a part of the trade that brought Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks, one of the other pieces to go to the desert was Taylor Widener, a 24 year old hard-throwing right handed pitcher.  A former 12th round pick by the Yankees, Widener has value in both the rotation and the bullpen.  After dominating AA in 2018, he should start the season with a great opportunity in AAA.  If that goes well, he should be one of the first options if a rotation spot opens up.  If a spot doesn't open, he could help bolster a bullpen that lost a few pieces from last season.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL West

Considering everything they lost, it would be impossible for the Diamondbacks not to take a step back.  With that said, they should be fun to watch.  They still have solid pitching without Corbin.  They should still have a solid offense without Goldschmidt and Pollock.  There should be some success that might even keep them on the periphery of the Wild Card race for a little while.  However, the Diamondbacks are not looking at 2019.  Some mild success will not convince the Diamondbacks to sacrifice some future success to make a run this season.

Fearless Prediction

The Diamondbacks will get more success out of centerfield this season than A.J. Pollock will give the Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are planning to go with a combination of Ketel Marte and Adam Jones in centerfield this season.  Marte has the chance to be a rising star, and Adam Jones is one of the most productive and consistent centerfielders of the last decade.  In six full seasons in the big leagues, A.J. Pollock has only played more the 113 games twice.  So the Diamondbacks replaced injuries with consistency and durability.  When Pollock plays, he is one of the best.  However, I have a feeling the Diamondbacks are not going to regret letting Pollock move on.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#24

The Arizona Diamondbacks won the offseason before the 2016 season, which led to a disappointing season.  Will 2017 be more successful?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks starting centerfielder on August 1st would not be on the Opening Day roster.

2016 Results

69-93, 4th in NL West

In years past, I have overreacted to teams having an amazing offseason.  I tried to be a little more realistic, but they underwhelmed even my modest expectations.  The Diamondbacks did not have a good season in 2016 which ended up costing manager Chip Hale his job.  This was partially because of the injury to AJ Pollock that occurred in the last few days of Spring Training that kept him out until September.  This led to my Fearless Prediction, which was days after the Pollock injury while the team was still figuring out how they were going to replace their star.  Sure enough, in the August 1st game, where the Washington Nationals beat the D-Backs 14-1, the centerfielder for the Diamondbacks was veteran Michael Bourn, who was picked up mid-season.  Prediction achieved!

Additions / Subtractions

The first addition to mention is first-time manager Torey Lovullo, who has spent the last four seasons as the bench coach for the Red Sox.  Outside of that, the only other moves were collecting former Mariners Chris Iannetta, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Fernando Rodney in free agency, as well as making one of the most intriguing trades of the offseason.  The D-Backs acquired Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte from the Mariners for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger.  Rarely do you see trades like this that exchange major contributors to the big league roster.

Most Important Hitter

AJ Pollock

After seeing the collapse of the Diamondbacks' season after AJ Pollock's freak injury in 2016, it showed just how valuable Pollock is to the success of this team.  In 2015, Pollock was an All Star while also winning a Gold Glove playing in 157 games.  However, it was also the only full season he has played in his career.  There is a big question whether he can stay healthy.  If he can, he can be one of the best centerfielders in the game.  That's a big if.

Most Important Pitcher

Shelby Miller

One of the other factors that led to the Diamondbacks' disappointing season in 2016 was the pitching staff.  Zack Greinke came back down to Earth, however the most disappointing by far was Shelby Miller.  In the offseason, the D-Backs had traded several prospects to the Braves for Miller, including former #1 overall draft pick and consensus 2017 preseason Rookie of the Year Dansby Swanson.  How did Miller repay them?  He had an injury-plagued 2016 season that led to only 101 innings pitched in 20 starts.  Even when he was healthy, he was not good, earning a 3-12 record with a 6.15 ERA.  You really can't get much worse.  If the Diamondbacks are going to have success moving forward, it needs to start with their pitching.  Greinke will bounce back, and Taijuan Walker will help, but Shelby Miller has to produce in a way that will start to justify the trade that brought him there.

Player to Watch

Matt Koch

When you consider how bad a trade like the Miller-Swanson trade is looking right now, it just adds insult to injury to see that the Diamondbacks currently have no prospects in baseball's Top 100.  The player most likely to have an impact in 2017 is pitcher Matt Koch.  He is not the most heralded prospect (only #17 in the D-Backs system), but he showed success in limited time in the big leagues last year.  He can start or work in relief while he tries to find a role for this ball club.

2017 Prediction

4th in NL West

There are just too many question marks, and too difficult of a division, for the Diamondbacks to make any strides forward this year.  I think they are heading in the right direction with some of the moves they have made, but too much has to go perfect for them to crack the top three of this division.

Fearless Prediction

Zack Geinke will be traded by this time next year.

Greinke was the surprise prize the Diamondbacks won in last year's offseason.  However, he was to anchor an up-and-coming roster getting ready to compete.  It's looking more and more like this roster is closer to rebuilding than competing.  If that is the case, the last thing they need is a 33 year old starter making $30 million per year.  They could make great strides in rebuilding their depleted farm system if they can find a taker for their high-priced ace.  I think it happens