Showing posts with label Arizona Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona Diamondbacks. Show all posts

Sunday, March 19, 2023

2023 Pre-Season Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks

 #18
The Arizona Diamondbacks went from being one of the worst teams in baseball in 2021 to respectable in 2022.  Will 2023 bring about more steps forward or another step back?


#27 - 4th in NL West
MIH - Pavin Smith
MIP - Zac Gallen
PTW - Alek Thomas

2022 Results
#20 - 74-88, 4th in NL West
Highest WAR (Position) - Christian Walker
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Zac Gallen
The Diamondbacks bounced back in a big way in 2022.  The problem was they had so far to bounce back from.  They quietly had an impressive season with some players taking some huge steps forward.  Zac Gallen finished top 5 in the Cy Young, and first baseman Christian Walker hit 36 home runs.  Not too bad for a team that lost 110 games the year before.


Additions / Subtractions
The Diamondbacks had some interesting moves this offseason that showed they were both buying and selling.  They traded standout Daulton Varsho, but got outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and catching phenom Gabriel Moreno in return.  They traded utilityman Cooper Hummel, but picked up former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis in return.  They also added veteran Evan Longoria to provide some clubhouse leadership, but also some hot corner production.  He could also be a trade candidate at the Deadline if the season goes south.


Most Important Hitter
Ketel Marte
It feels like Ketel Marte is a veteran that has been around forever and maybe entering the twilight of his career.  He is actually only entering his age 29 season.  Some people don't even hit their peak until 29.  For Marte, so far his peak was 2019.  He hit 32 home runs, 92 RBI, a 149 OPS+, and finished 4th in the MVP voting.  Outside of that one season, his season high in home runs is 14.  He was on track for a great 2021 season, but he only played in 90 games.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the last time Marte was elite for a while season was the last time the Diamondbacks were over .500.  If the D-Backs want to get back to being relevant, Marte needs to get back to being a potential All Star.


Most Important Pitcher
Madison Bumgarner
The Diamondbacks have had some pitchers emerge the last few seasons as possible aces.  Zac Gallen is becoming a star, Merrill Kelly is consistent and solid enough to earn a WBC spot on Team USA.  Through all that, the highest paid member of the pitching staff has been a bit of a dud.  Madison Bumgarner signed a big free agent deal in Arizona before the 2020 season.  In 11 seasons in San Francisco, MadBum became a legend while never having an ERA+ below 100.  In 3 season in Arizona, he has never had an ERA+ above 100, topping out at 90 in 2021.  The 2022 season saw a 7-15 record with a 4.88 ERA.  He is under contract with the Diamondbacks for 2 more seasons.  If the Diamondbacks could get a career renaissance from MadBum, it would be a pleasant surprise at this point, and might be what the they need to push them to another level.


Prospect to Watch
Corbin Carroll
The Diamondbacks have built up a strong and deep farm system.  At the top of that system is the #2 prospect in all of baseball, Corbin Carroll.  The 22 year old Seattle native was picked in the first round by the D-Backs in 2019, and has excelled ever since.  He got a taste of the big leagues in 2022, earning a 133 OPS+ and 1.1 in WAR in just 32 games.  More importantly, his performance in 2022 made the Diamondbacks comfortable enough to sign a player still officially considered a prospect to an 8 year, $111 million contract.  At his worst, he's a Gold Glove caliber defender and one of the fastest players in baseball.  At his best, he could be one of the best players in baseball.


2023 Prediction
3rd in NL West
It doesn't feel like a step forward, but moving into 3rd place in the NL West is the absolute ceiling for this team in 2023.  I could totally see this roster reaching that level.  This could be one of the more entertaining teams to watch in 2023.  They have a great manager, some established stars, and some exciting young talent.  Watch for them to be a surprise in 2023.


Fearless Prediction
Corbin Carroll will win the Rookie of the Year.
Okay, it might not feel like much of a bold prediction, but who cares.  Corbin Carroll is a star in the making, and 2023 will be his coming out party.  There are some other big prospects that will be competing for the NL Rookie of the Year, but it feels like Carroll has this wrapped up before it even starts.


Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, April 7, 2022

2022 MLB Pre-Season Predictions: #30-21

Happy Opening Day!!!  One of my favorite things to do every year is take the month before the baseball season starts and do a preseason write-up and prediction article for each team.  Thanks to the lockout, a shortened Spring Training, and the crazy flurry of free agency signings during that shortened Spring Training, I did not have a chance to write these before the season starts.  With that said, I want to get my predictions out there in some way before the season gets going too much.  So here are teams #30-#21 in my pre-season power rankings.

#30
Oakland A's
2021 Prediction: #8, 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS
2021 Fearless Prediction: Before Opening Day 2022, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will be traded, a new ballpark deal is done, or the A's will announce a relocation.
2021 Result: #13, 86-76, 3rd in AL West
Most Important Hitter: Sean Murphy
Most Important Pitcher: Frankie Montas
Prospect to Watch: Cristian Pache
2022 Prediction: 5th in AL West

After a lackluster end to 2021, the A's (as I predicted) traded away or let walk away almost their entire roster (including their manager).  Now the A's are starting over as they do every few years, but this one feels different.  They stripped the roster down to the studs without a next wave ready to compete.  Their most important players are the only ones left, and it's only a matter of time before they get traded too.  Are they trying to alienate the fanbase to make a move to Las Vegas easier?  Maybe.  On a side note, what is Oakland doing?  Do they just hate having sports?  They have already watched the Raiders move to Vegas, the Warriors move to San Francisco, and now the A's are on their way out since they refuse to build a new stadium to replace the worst facility in American professional sports.  Sad to see for a once proud sports city.


#29
Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 Prediction: #30, 5th in NL Central
2021 Fearless Prediction: Ke'Bryan Hayes will be an All Star and Rookie of the Year in 2021.
2021 Result: #27, 61-101, 5th in NL Central
Most Important Hitter: Bryan Reynolds
Most Important Pitcher: Mitch Keller
Prospect to Watch: Oneil Cruz
2022 Prediction: 5th in NL Central

The Pirates are a pretty lousy organization, shown by the fact that they just shelled out their biggest contract in franchise history at ... wait for it ... $70 million.  Then Ke'Bryan Hayes goes out and gets hurt in the first inning of Opening Day.  They seem to be the only team still concerned about service time manipulation by keeping Oneil Cruz in the minors to start the year because I think they are the only team that can't afford to sign a good player to a real contract.  Until they learn how to spend, they will only be good if they get lucky.


#28
Colorado Rockies
2021 Prediction: #28, 5th in NL West
2021 Fearless Prediction: Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.
2021 Result: #21, 74-87, 4th in NL West
Most Important Hitter: Kris Bryant
Most Important Pitcher: German Marquez
Prospect to Watch: Elehuris Montero
2022 Prediction: 5th in NL West

The Rockies had an interesting offseason where they watched one of their stars leave in free agency while they brought another in.  What looked like a full blown rebuild got an uplift.  They don't have a lot of established players heading into this year though.  They should bounce back quick, but this year might be rough.


#27
Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 Prediction: #27, 4th in NL West
2021 Fearless Prediction: Madison Bumgarner will not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.
2021 Result: #29, 52-110, 5th in NL West
Most Important Hitter: Pavin Smith
Most Important Pitcher: Zac Gallen
Prospect to Watch: Alek Thomas
2022 Prediction: 4th in NL West

It's easy for the top of the NL West to rack up as many wins as they do when they have two door mats like the Rockies and Diamondbacks to deal with as many times as they do.  The Diamondbacks are trying, but they are so far behind the rest of the division (Rockies excluded) that it will take awhile for them to be relevant again.


#26
Cincinnati Reds
2021 Prediction: #19, 3rd in NL Central
2021 Fearless Prediction: Over half of the Reds' Opening Day lineup will no longer be on the roster Opening Day 2022.
2021 Result: #14, 83-79, 3rd in NL Central
Most Important Hitter: Jonathan India
Most Important Pitcher: Luis Castillo
Prospect to Watch: Hunter Greene
2022 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

My fearless prediction came true as the Reds unloaded a ton of their strong core and hit the full reset button.  They have a lot of promise with guys like reigning ROY Jonathan India and phenom Hunter Greene, but their step back will take a few years to bounce back from.


#25
Baltimore Orioles
2021 Prediction: #25, 4th in AL East
2021 Fearless Prediction: Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.
2021 Result: #30, 52-110, 5th in AL East
Most Important Hitter: Cedric Mullins
Most Important Pitcher: John Means
Prospect to Watch: Adley Rutschman
2022 Prediction: 5th in AL East

It feels like the Orioles are starting to turn the corner.  The problem is they are in a division with 4 other teams that are World Series contenders.  They won't compete this year, but they will be interesting.


#24
Washington Nationals
2021 Prediction: #12, 3rd in NL East
2021 Fearless Prediction: Max Scherzer and Ryan Zimmerman will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2021.
2021 Result: #26, 65-97, 5th in NL East
Most Important Hitter: Josh Bell
Most Important Pitcher: Josiah Gray
Prospect to Watch: Cade Cavalli
2022 Prediction: 5th in NL East

It was time for the Nationals to take their step back and start to rebuild, but what a run they had!  They have another couple steps to fall back all the way before they start building back up, but when they do, they should still have possibly the best hitter of his generation in Juan Soto.


#23
Miami Marlins
2021 Prediction: #20, 5th in NL East
2021 Fearless Prediction: 2021 will be the last time the Miami Marlins finish in the cellar of the NL East for the next decade.
2021 Result: #25, 67-95, 4th in NL East
Most Important Hitter: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Most Important Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo
Prospect to Watch: Max Meyer
2022 Prediction: 4th in NL East

The Marlins fell back down to earth in 2021 after a magical 60 games in 2020.  Now they are back on schedule with a lot of fun young talent.  It will be tough to compete with the top of the division, but they will cause headaches for the top teams throughout the season.


#22
Cleveland Guardians
2021 Prediction: #17, 3rd in AL Central
2021 Fearless Prediction: Shane Bieber will win a second straight Cy Young Award.
2021 Result: #16, 80-82, 2nd in AL Central
Most Important Hitter: Jose Ramirez
Most Important Pitcher: Shane Bieber
Prospect to Watch: Logan Allen
2022 Prediction: 5th in AL Central

The Guardians rely on one or two players more than any other team in the league.  If Jose Ramirez or Shane Bieber get hurt, they really don't have much of anything.  That's why they finally committed and paid Ramirez.  Scoring runs will be tough this year, but they can still pitch.  Bieber is the best and the leader, but not all they have.  My biggest issue with the Guardians this year ... can we stop this trend of rebranding a franchise but not changing a thing besides the name of the jersey?  The Guardians, the Commanders ... new name, exact same jersey.  It's going to take forever for people to get the name right because they look just like they did before.  Start over!


#21
Kansas City Royals
2021 Prediction: #24, 5th in AL Central
2021 Fearless Prediction: The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.
2021 Result: #22, 74-88, 4th in AL Central
Most Important Hitter: Salvador Perez
Most Important Pitcher: Zack Greinke
Prospect to Watch: Bobby Witt Jr.
2022 Prediction: 4th in AL Central

This season for the Royals is all about veterans imparting wisdom on the young up and coming starts.  That's why they bring back Zack Greinke.  This season in KC is all about Bobby Witt Jr. though.  How quickly he breaks out will determine how successful their season is.
Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, February 25, 2021

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#27
The Arizona Diamondbacks had a disappointing season in 2020, leading to the team being sellers instead of buyers at the Trade Deadline.  Will 2021 be a bounce back year for the D-Backs?

2020 Predictions
#8 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS
MIH - Starling Marte
MIP - Robbie Ray
PTW - J.B. Bukauskas

2020 Results
#25 - 25-35, 5th in NL West
Every year, there are one or two teams I whiff pretty badly on.  Last year, the Diamondbacks might have been the team I missed the worst.  I took a stab thinking they could be a surprise team to reach the Divisional Series in the NL.  Instead, they missed the playoffs, even with them expanded by almost double the teams.  The Diamondbacks made the choice to jump into the sellers market when few were ready to give up on the season.  My Most Important Hitter and Pitcher for the team last season were both traded to contenders at the deadline, as well as closer Archie Bradley and setup man Andrew Chafin.  This dropped the D-Backs down to the cellar of the NL West.

Additions / Subtractions
The most significant moves the Diamondbacks made were the moves made at last year's Trade Deadline.  The returning lineup is almost identical to how they ended the year, with the signing of veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera being the only semi-significant move.  Their pitching staff is fairly untouched as well, with veteran arm Joakim Soria being the only significant addition.

Most Important Hitter
Ketel Marte
One of the biggest surprises for the Diamondbacks over the last few seasons has been the emergence of Ketel Marte.  This 2B/SS/CF started to break out in 2018, then finished 4th in MVP voting in 2019 showing he was one of the brightest stars to watch across the league.  Marte's 2020 season was solid, but definitely saw a drop off from the production of the previous two seasons.  The D-Backs need to see Marte bounce back to his All Star level if the current group is going to have any success in 2021.

Most Important Pitcher
Madison Bumgarner
The Diamondbacks made a splash before the 2020 season when they signed the man, the myth, the legend, Madison Bumgarner.  However, his production in 2020 was less than stellar, finishing the shortened season with a negative WAR and a 6.48 ERA.  The Diamondbacks have some great young pitching, but MadBum needs to be their leader.  He is only entering his age 31 season, but all the work he put in while fighting for championships in San Francisco may have left him with not many bullets left.

Prospect to Watch
Geraldo Perdomo
The Diamondbacks do have some exciting young talent coming up through their system.  The one most likely to make a splash in 2021 is shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.  This 21 year-old is the best defender in the D-Backs system.  He is also a switch hitter that can hold his own at the plate.  Ranked the 79th best prospect in all of baseball, there may be some space for him to make his debut around the infield at some point in 2021.

2021 Prediction
4th in NL West
The Diamondbacks made a clear decision last season to take a step back.  Now they are not into a full rebuild, but they are stuck in a division with two of the most stacked rosters in all of baseball.  They (and the Rockies for that matter) are set up to be a doormat in 2021 and end up with a lower record than their talent might otherwise warrant.

Fearless Prediction
Madison Bumgarner will be not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.
The Diamondbacks have stripped back almost all commitments to veteran players recently in an effort to get younger and possibly open up a window later on down the road when it might be a little easier to win the division.  The last one left is MadBum.  If he shows flashes in 2021 that he is back, look for the Diamondbacks to try and unload him in a similar move to what they did for Zack Greinke a few years ago.
Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Thursday, July 23, 2020

2020 MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

We are FINALLY about to get some baseball!!!  After four months of delay due to the pandemic and a labor dispute, we are getting a crazy season of 60 games, a little over one-third of a normal season.  Every game will count in a way it never has before.  Back in March, I started my yearly pre-season profiles of each team.  Once the season was postponed, I postponed my profiles.  Now that the season is about to start, here is a quick overview of my pre-season rankings, thoughts, and predictions.  A few adjustments have been made since March, but the profiles I already did are locked in.  They are definitely the lower tier of the league this season.

#30

#29

#28

#27

#26

#25

#24

#23

#22

#21
Boston Red Sox
Most Important Hitter: Xander Bogaerts
Most Important Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi
Prospect to Watch: Tanner Houck
2020 Prediction: 4th in AL East

Loss of manager, Mookie, and Sale on the shelf will lead to a disappointing result in Fenway.

#20
Toronto Blue Jays
Most Important Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Most Important Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu
Prospect to Watch: Nate Pearson
2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

The Blue Jays are currently homeless, but they have a young core that is almost ready to take another step forward.  Could be a surprise contender.

#19
San Diego Padres
Most Important Hitter: Manny Machado
Most Important Pitcher: Garrett Richards
Prospect to Watch: MacKenzie Gore
2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

Another possible surprise contender, the Padres' youth movement needs their veteran leaders to lead the way for them to take the leap in 2020.

#18
Chicago Cubs
Most Important Hitter: Willson Contreras
Most Important Pitcher: Yu Darvish
Prospect to Watch: Nico Hoerner
2020 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

The toughest division in baseball is going to make sure the Cubs and their window of contention with this core might be over.

#17
Cleveland Indians
Most Important Hitter: Francisco Lindor
Most Important Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
Prospect to Watch: Logan Allen
2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central

The 2020 season will be less about if the Indians can compete and more about how it might be the last we see of Francisco Lindor in a Cleveland uniform.

#16
Washington Nationals
Most Important Hitter: Juan Soto
Most Important Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
Prospect to Watch: Carter Kieboom
2020 Prediction: 4th in NL East

The defending champs have one of the best rotations in baseball and could do damage in the playoffs again because of it.  I just don't see the lineup getting them there.

#15
Chicago White Sox
Most Important Hitter: Eloy Jimenez
Most Important Pitcher: Lucas Giolito
Prospect to Watch: Luis Robert
2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central

A lot of people are picking the ChiSox to make the playoffs.  They could easily slip into a Wild Card spot, but I think they are still a year or two away.

#14
New York Mets
Most Important Hitter: Robinson Cano
Most Important Pitcher: Edwin Diaz
Prospect to Watch: Kevin Smith
2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL East

This is a roster that could top the division or bottom out.  It all depends if their veterans can stay healthy.

#13
Los Angeles Angels
Most Important Hitter: Anthony Rendon
Most Important Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani
Prospect to Watch: Jo Adell
2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL West

The Angels landed one of the big fish in the offseason, but their pitching is too mediocre to truly get over the top yet.

#12
Milwaukee Brewers
Most Important Hitter: Keston Hiura
Most Important Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff
Prospect to Watch: Drew Rasmussen
2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

The Brewers have an elite lineup build for the new NL DH.  Their pitching is as average as their playoff runs, but their division is getting deeper and tougher.

#11
St. Louis Cardinals
Most Important Hitter: Paul Goldschmidt
Most Important Pitcher: Miles Mikolas
Prospect to Watch: Dylan Carlson
2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central

I had the Cards in the playoffs in March, but pulled them out now.  They are always right there, but they are built for the marathon, not the sprint.

#10
Atlanta Braves
Most Important Hitter: Marcell Ozuna
Most Important Pitcher: Cole Hamels
Prospect to Watch: Kyle Wright
2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The Braves have one of the best young cores in baseball.  They will make the playoffs, but they are just a little too young to make a deep run ... yet.

#9
Oakland A's
Most Important Hitter: Marcus Semien
Most Important Pitcher: Liam Hendriks
Prospect to Watch: Jesus Luzardo
2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The A's always seem to be good enough to reach the playoffs every year, but not do anything once they get there.  The shortened season also makes them vulnerable to miss the playoffs in 2020.

#8
Arizona Diamondbacks
Most Important Hitter: Starling Marte
Most Important Pitcher: Robbie Ray
Prospect to Watch: J.B. Bukauskas
2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

As weird as it would be to see MadBum in the postseason not in a Giants uniform, I think the D-Backs have the roster to get there.

#7
Cincinnati Reds
Most Important Hitter: Eugenio Suarez
Most Important Pitcher: Raisel Iglesias
Prospect to Watch: Tony Santillan
2020 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

If this was a full season, I don't see the Reds making the postseason.  However, in a 60 game season, I see the Reds getting hot and the season ending before they fall back to the rest of the pack.  One of the best rotations in the league.

#6
Houston Astros
Most Important Hitter: Carlos Correa
Most Important Pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr.
Prospect to Watch: Forrest Whitley
2020 Prediction: 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

The Astros might benefit most from having no fans ... banging on trash cans.  They are too talented not to win the division, but the loss of Gerrit Cole will make a deep run tough.

#5
New York Yankees
Most Important Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton
Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton
Prospect to Watch: Clarke Schmidt
2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Yankees might have the most talented roster in the AL, but I don't think they have the best team.  I see the World Series favorite falling short.

#4
Philadelphia Phillies
Most Important Hitter: Andrew McCutchen
Most Important Pitcher: Zack Wheeler
Prospect to Watch: Alec Bohm
2020 Prediction: 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

The Phillies have all the makings of a deep run in the postseason.  They have a killer lineup and great pitching.  Too bad there is a superteam they will be running into.

#3
Minnesota Twins
Most Important Hitter: Byron Buxton
Most Important Pitcher: Kenta Maeda
Prospect to Watch: Alex Kirilloff
2020 Prediction: 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

If only the Twins could have put some more elite talent in their pitching staff...  They have possibly the best lineup in the league which will carry them this far.

#2
Tampa Bay Rays
Most Important Hitter: Austin Meadows
Most Important Pitcher: Blake Snell
Prospect to Watch: Brendan McKay
2020 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Rays have the best bullpen, one of the best rotations (which is funny considering they use the opener so often), and an efficient lineup.  They are set up to dominate, especially in this sprint season.

#1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Most Important Hitter: Corey Seager
Most Important Pitcher: Julio Urias
Prospect to Watch: Dustin May
2020 Prediction: 1st in NL West, win World Series

I think this is the year.  They have the best roster that only got better with Mookie.  Their pitching is strong and deep.  I hate to go with the favorite, but they are just that good.
Posted by at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)