2023 Pre-Season Predictions: Arizona Diamondbacks

 #18

The Arizona Diamondbacks went from being one of the worst teams in baseball in 2021 to respectable in 2022.  Will 2023 bring about more steps forward or another step back?

2022 Predictions

#27 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Pavin Smith

MIP - Zac Gallen

PTW - Alek Thomas

2022 Results

#20 - 74-88, 4th in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Christian Walker

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Zac Gallen

The Diamondbacks bounced back in a big way in 2022.  The problem was they had so far to bounce back from.  They quietly had an impressive season with some players taking some huge steps forward.  Zac Gallen finished top 5 in the Cy Young, and first baseman Christian Walker hit 36 home runs.  Not too bad for a team that lost 110 games the year before.

Additions / Subtractions

The Diamondbacks had some interesting moves this offseason that showed they were both buying and selling.  They traded standout Daulton Varsho, but got outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and catching phenom Gabriel Moreno in return.  They traded utilityman Cooper Hummel, but picked up former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis in return.  They also added veteran Evan Longoria to provide some clubhouse leadership, but also some hot corner production.  He could also be a trade candidate at the Deadline if the season goes south.

Most Important Hitter

Ketel Marte

It feels like Ketel Marte is a veteran that has been around forever and maybe entering the twilight of his career.  He is actually only entering his age 29 season.  Some people don't even hit their peak until 29.  For Marte, so far his peak was 2019.  He hit 32 home runs, 92 RBI, a 149 OPS+, and finished 4th in the MVP voting.  Outside of that one season, his season high in home runs is 14.  He was on track for a great 2021 season, but he only played in 90 games.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the last time Marte was elite for a while season was the last time the Diamondbacks were over .500.  If the D-Backs want to get back to being relevant, Marte needs to get back to being a potential All Star.

Most Important Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner

The Diamondbacks have had some pitchers emerge the last few seasons as possible aces.  Zac Gallen is becoming a star, Merrill Kelly is consistent and solid enough to earn a WBC spot on Team USA.  Through all that, the highest paid member of the pitching staff has been a bit of a dud.  Madison Bumgarner signed a big free agent deal in Arizona before the 2020 season.  In 11 seasons in San Francisco, MadBum became a legend while never having an ERA+ below 100.  In 3 season in Arizona, he has never had an ERA+ above 100, topping out at 90 in 2021.  The 2022 season saw a 7-15 record with a 4.88 ERA.  He is under contract with the Diamondbacks for 2 more seasons.  If the Diamondbacks could get a career renaissance from MadBum, it would be a pleasant surprise at this point, and might be what the they need to push them to another level.

Prospect to Watch

Corbin Carroll

The Diamondbacks have built up a strong and deep farm system.  At the top of that system is the #2 prospect in all of baseball, Corbin Carroll.  The 22 year old Seattle native was picked in the first round by the D-Backs in 2019, and has excelled ever since.  He got a taste of the big leagues in 2022, earning a 133 OPS+ and 1.1 in WAR in just 32 games.  More importantly, his performance in 2022 made the Diamondbacks comfortable enough to sign a player still officially considered a prospect to an 8 year, $111 million contract.  At his worst, he's a Gold Glove caliber defender and one of the fastest players in baseball.  At his best, he could be one of the best players in baseball.

2023 Prediction

3rd in NL West

It doesn't feel like a step forward, but moving into 3rd place in the NL West is the absolute ceiling for this team in 2023.  I could totally see this roster reaching that level.  This could be one of the more entertaining teams to watch in 2023.  They have a great manager, some established stars, and some exciting young talent.  Watch for them to be a surprise in 2023.

Fearless Prediction

Corbin Carroll will win the Rookie of the Year.

Okay, it might not feel like much of a bold prediction, but who cares.  Corbin Carroll is a star in the making, and 2023 will be his coming out party.  There are some other big prospects that will be competing for the NL Rookie of the Year, but it feels like Carroll has this wrapped up before it even starts.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

 #22

The Seattle Mariners have gotten the reputation of being one of the biggest newsmakers of the last few offseasons.  This year, they made news for the wrong reasons.  Now they have one of the more exciting young rosters in the league and a front office in turmoil.  How will all the drama affect the on-field production in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#26 - 5th in AL West

MIH - Daniel Vogelbach

MIP - Yusei Kikuchi

PTW - Evan White

FP - The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

2020 Results

#19 - 27-33, 3rd in AL West

The Mariners overachieved in the shortened 2020 season, playing meaningful games in the last few weeks as they had a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  They did all this without the help of every player I mentioned in my prediction.  Daniel Vogelbach was DFA'ed early on in the season, Yusei Kikuchi was their worst starting pitcher in terms of ERA+, and Evan White was one of the worst hitters in the league (despite winning a Gold Glove).  The standouts on the season were Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner J.P. Crawford, and utilityman Dylan Moore who led the team in WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

In the past few seasons, the Mariners seem to pull off a trade every week over the offseason, but this year was curiously quiet as the roster has now been fully reset.  There were some minor moves made to complement the new young emerging core.  The only adds were on the pitching front with a couple bullpen arms coming in with Ken Giles (who won't pitch till 2022), Rafael Montero, and Keynan Middleton and a couple adds to the rotation with Chris Flexen and a reunion with James Paxton.  The lineup looks exactly the same as it did at the end of last season.  The biggest news of the offseason was the resignation of Team President Kevin Mather after an embarrassing video came to light where he revealed way too much about the behind the scenes workings of the organization and his opinions on the Mariners' stars and top prospects.

Most Important Hitter

Kyle Lewis

In 2020, Kyle Lewis might have been the biggest breakout surprise of the season.  The former Golden Spikes winner in college finally showed why he was a first round pick and a potential face of a franchise.  With all that said, he ended the year in quite a slump.  In a normal season, we would have been able to see if he could come out of that slump or if that slump would have defined his season.  Now we are entering 2021, and the Mariners are counting on Lewis being the superstar he was the first half the 2020 season.  The real answer is we don't know which is the real Kyle Lewis.  Either way, for the Mariners to have success in 2021, Lewis needs to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Justus Sheffield

Another surprise of the 2020 season, Justus Sheffield finally fulfilled some of the promise he showed as a top prospect that was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Mariners by the Yankees in the James Paxton deal.  (On a side note, it is quite ironic that both Paxton and Sheffield are now in the same rotation in Seattle.)  Sheffield had a quiet breakout season and is now going to be counted on as a dependable key piece of their rotation in 2021.  He needs to continue to grow and take steps forward to show that he can be counted on in 2021 and beyond.

Prospect to Watch

Jarred Kelenic

Give the front office some credit!  In 2018, the Mariners were one of the oldest rosters in the league and had one of the worst farm systems.  Now, they are one of the youngest rosters with one of the top farm systems about to make some serious impact at the big league level.  They have 6 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball, along with two in the top 5.  It was hard to choose just one prospect because I see multiple players making their big league debut and having a huge impact in 2021.  Logan Gilbert is a big flamethrower that could easily be the ace of the Mariners' staff by the end of the season.  However, the only real answer here is Jarred Kelenic.  The centerpiece of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mets, Kelenic has been flying up the prospect lists (now at #4 in baseball) ever since he was drafted and now seems ready to be a star.  He was also one of the primary targets of the Kevin Mather rant, criticizing him for not taking a club-friendly long-term contract and admitting that the Mariners are planning on manipulating his service time.  Even though he has never played over AA ball, he might be starting in leftfield on Opening Day just for the club to save some face and see if his star can truly take off.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL West

This is a hard one to predict.  The Mariners surprised in the short 2020 season, but they also seem content to look towards 2022 as their year to make the big leap into contention.  At the same time, they have a ton of exciting young talent that will be hitting the field every night.  The turmoil in the front office could also unite the young roster or turn them against the organization.  I think they will show flashes of the possible greatness that is to come while uniting together, but ultimately they are going to still be a year away.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up around a .500 record though.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will have four straight Rookies of the Year.

Like I said, the Mariners have a ridiculous farm system filled with talent that will be hitting the big leagues over the next few years.  Kyle Lewis surprised everyone last season by winning Rookie of the Year.  Jarred Kelenic is definitely a favorite to win that award in 2021.  In 2022, the Mariners' next big prospect Julio Rodriguez should be ready to break out.  In 2023, stud infielder Noelvi Marte (who will probably work his way up to a top 10 prospect ranking before he hits the big leagues) will be the next big star.  All of that without even mentioning the pitching studs like Logan Gilbert that could be in the running for the award as well.  So although the team might not be great this season, and the front office might currently be a dumpster fire, it is a pretty exciting time to be a Mariners fan.