2023 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

 #4

The Seattle Mariners broke their 21 year postseason drought in 2022.  Can 2023 bring about another step towards winning a championship?

2022 Predictions

#8 - 3rd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

MIH - Jesse Winker

MIP - Logan Gilbert

PTW - Julio Rodriguez

2022 Results

#8 - 90-72, 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lost in ALDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Julio Rodriguez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Logan Gilbert

The drought is over!  The Mariners made the playoffs in 2022 for the first time since their 116 win season in 2001.  They may not have done it the way it was expected though.  They rode the back of their young superstar Julio Rodriguez, who won Rookie of the Year and finished 7th in MVP voting.  Before the 2022 season started, everyone was talking about the impact Jesse Winker would have on the offense, but it was the forgotten part of that trade, Eugenio Suarez, that became a leader of the team.  A Trade Deadline deal, again with the Reds, that brought in starter Luis Castillo revamped the starting rotation and made them a dangerous team in the postseason.  Despite being swept in the ALDS, they were really the only team that gave the Astros any fits in the playoffs.

Additions / Subtractions

Even though Jerry DiPoto has garnered the reputation of being extremely active in roster tweaks, this offseason was comparatively somewhat quiet.  Two main trades defined the offseason for the Mariners.  They brought in outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays for reliver Erik Swanson to replace the departing Mitch Haniger.  They also ended the Jesse Winker experiment by trading him and Abraham Toro to the Brewers for second baseman Kolten Wong to replace the departing Adam Frazier.  One free agent signing was bringing in veteran outfielder A.J. Pollock.

Most Important Hitter

Ty France

Although Julio was the headline grabber last season, in a lot of ways Ty France was the one that helped keep this lineup moving for the Mariners.  He is one of those players that just knows how to hit.  This earned him his first All Star appearance in 2022.  However, an elbow injury mid-season threw off his swing and timing the rest of the season, and France really struggled to have any production down the stretch.  If the Mariners are going to have a strong lineup, they need Ty France to hit the way he did before his injury.  If he is back to that level, this lineup will score runs.

Most Important Pitcher

Robbie Ray

The Mariners made a big free agency splash before the 2022 season by signing the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray, away from the Blue Jays.  In his first year in Seattle, Ray did not live up to the hype.  Still able to strike out a lot of batters, Ray's ERA+ fell from 157 in 2021 to league average 100 in 2022.  His standard ERA rose from 2.84 in 2021 to 3.71 in 2022.  His inconsistency forced the Mariners to trade for another ace mid-season, and he ended the season relegated to the bullpen in the ALDS and gave up a game-winning, back-breaking home run to Yordan Alvarez in Game 1.  It looks like he has made some changes in the offseason and is ready to have a better season.  The Mariners need him to be better to provide that right/left 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

Prospect to Watch

Bryce Miller

The Mariners quickly went from one of the best farm systems in baseball to one of the worst thanks to guys like Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Jarred Kelenic graduating from the list, then trading away a bunch of their depth in a variety of trades.  Only two players remain for the Mariners in the Top 100, with Bryce Miller (#98 on Top 100) being ready to impact the big league roster this season.  Miller is a 24 year old right-handed starter that may have had a chance to be a part of the rotation on Opening Day if not for the tremendous pitching depth in Seattle.  He will get his chance at some point this season though, and when he does, he might be the next great young arm in Seattle's arsenal.

2023 Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALCS

I don't know if the Mariners are ready to dethrone the Astros at the top of the division, but they showed last season that they are ready to compete with anyone in the postseason.  They are built to compete in the playoffs and will be a dangerous team in October.  My slightly skeptical fandom might be the only thing keeping me from putting them in the World Series, but they are definitely good enough to get there.

Fearless Prediction

Julio Rodriguez finishes in the top 3 in the MVP voting.

This might not feel like that fearless of a prediction.  A fearless prediction would be picking Julio to win the MVP.  However, when you remember that the American League also includes so many people you have to vote for out of principle, like the unicorn Shohei Ohtani, the best player in baseball Mike Trout, and the reigning MVP Aaron Judge, cracking the top 3 in MVP voting would be quite a feat.  Give Julio 5 years, and he will be the best player in baseball.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

 #22

The Seattle Mariners have gotten the reputation of being one of the biggest newsmakers of the last few offseasons.  This year, they made news for the wrong reasons.  Now they have one of the more exciting young rosters in the league and a front office in turmoil.  How will all the drama affect the on-field production in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#26 - 5th in AL West

MIH - Daniel Vogelbach

MIP - Yusei Kikuchi

PTW - Evan White

FP - The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

2020 Results

#19 - 27-33, 3rd in AL West

The Mariners overachieved in the shortened 2020 season, playing meaningful games in the last few weeks as they had a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  They did all this without the help of every player I mentioned in my prediction.  Daniel Vogelbach was DFA'ed early on in the season, Yusei Kikuchi was their worst starting pitcher in terms of ERA+, and Evan White was one of the worst hitters in the league (despite winning a Gold Glove).  The standouts on the season were Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner J.P. Crawford, and utilityman Dylan Moore who led the team in WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

In the past few seasons, the Mariners seem to pull off a trade every week over the offseason, but this year was curiously quiet as the roster has now been fully reset.  There were some minor moves made to complement the new young emerging core.  The only adds were on the pitching front with a couple bullpen arms coming in with Ken Giles (who won't pitch till 2022), Rafael Montero, and Keynan Middleton and a couple adds to the rotation with Chris Flexen and a reunion with James Paxton.  The lineup looks exactly the same as it did at the end of last season.  The biggest news of the offseason was the resignation of Team President Kevin Mather after an embarrassing video came to light where he revealed way too much about the behind the scenes workings of the organization and his opinions on the Mariners' stars and top prospects.

Most Important Hitter

Kyle Lewis

In 2020, Kyle Lewis might have been the biggest breakout surprise of the season.  The former Golden Spikes winner in college finally showed why he was a first round pick and a potential face of a franchise.  With all that said, he ended the year in quite a slump.  In a normal season, we would have been able to see if he could come out of that slump or if that slump would have defined his season.  Now we are entering 2021, and the Mariners are counting on Lewis being the superstar he was the first half the 2020 season.  The real answer is we don't know which is the real Kyle Lewis.  Either way, for the Mariners to have success in 2021, Lewis needs to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Justus Sheffield

Another surprise of the 2020 season, Justus Sheffield finally fulfilled some of the promise he showed as a top prospect that was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Mariners by the Yankees in the James Paxton deal.  (On a side note, it is quite ironic that both Paxton and Sheffield are now in the same rotation in Seattle.)  Sheffield had a quiet breakout season and is now going to be counted on as a dependable key piece of their rotation in 2021.  He needs to continue to grow and take steps forward to show that he can be counted on in 2021 and beyond.

Prospect to Watch

Jarred Kelenic

Give the front office some credit!  In 2018, the Mariners were one of the oldest rosters in the league and had one of the worst farm systems.  Now, they are one of the youngest rosters with one of the top farm systems about to make some serious impact at the big league level.  They have 6 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball, along with two in the top 5.  It was hard to choose just one prospect because I see multiple players making their big league debut and having a huge impact in 2021.  Logan Gilbert is a big flamethrower that could easily be the ace of the Mariners' staff by the end of the season.  However, the only real answer here is Jarred Kelenic.  The centerpiece of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mets, Kelenic has been flying up the prospect lists (now at #4 in baseball) ever since he was drafted and now seems ready to be a star.  He was also one of the primary targets of the Kevin Mather rant, criticizing him for not taking a club-friendly long-term contract and admitting that the Mariners are planning on manipulating his service time.  Even though he has never played over AA ball, he might be starting in leftfield on Opening Day just for the club to save some face and see if his star can truly take off.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL West

This is a hard one to predict.  The Mariners surprised in the short 2020 season, but they also seem content to look towards 2022 as their year to make the big leap into contention.  At the same time, they have a ton of exciting young talent that will be hitting the field every night.  The turmoil in the front office could also unite the young roster or turn them against the organization.  I think they will show flashes of the possible greatness that is to come while uniting together, but ultimately they are going to still be a year away.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up around a .500 record though.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will have four straight Rookies of the Year.

Like I said, the Mariners have a ridiculous farm system filled with talent that will be hitting the big leagues over the next few years.  Kyle Lewis surprised everyone last season by winning Rookie of the Year.  Jarred Kelenic is definitely a favorite to win that award in 2021.  In 2022, the Mariners' next big prospect Julio Rodriguez should be ready to break out.  In 2023, stud infielder Noelvi Marte (who will probably work his way up to a top 10 prospect ranking before he hits the big leagues) will be the next big star.  All of that without even mentioning the pitching studs like Logan Gilbert that could be in the running for the award as well.  So although the team might not be great this season, and the front office might currently be a dumpster fire, it is a pretty exciting time to be a Mariners fan.