2021 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

 #22

The Seattle Mariners have gotten the reputation of being one of the biggest newsmakers of the last few offseasons.  This year, they made news for the wrong reasons.  Now they have one of the more exciting young rosters in the league and a front office in turmoil.  How will all the drama affect the on-field production in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#26 - 5th in AL West

MIH - Daniel Vogelbach

MIP - Yusei Kikuchi

PTW - Evan White

FP - The Mariners will not have a single reliever with more than 10 saves.

2020 Results

#19 - 27-33, 3rd in AL West

The Mariners overachieved in the shortened 2020 season, playing meaningful games in the last few weeks as they had a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2001.  They did all this without the help of every player I mentioned in my prediction.  Daniel Vogelbach was DFA'ed early on in the season, Yusei Kikuchi was their worst starting pitcher in terms of ERA+, and Evan White was one of the worst hitters in the league (despite winning a Gold Glove).  The standouts on the season were Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner J.P. Crawford, and utilityman Dylan Moore who led the team in WAR.

Additions / Subtractions

In the past few seasons, the Mariners seem to pull off a trade every week over the offseason, but this year was curiously quiet as the roster has now been fully reset.  There were some minor moves made to complement the new young emerging core.  The only adds were on the pitching front with a couple bullpen arms coming in with Ken Giles (who won't pitch till 2022), Rafael Montero, and Keynan Middleton and a couple adds to the rotation with Chris Flexen and a reunion with James Paxton.  The lineup looks exactly the same as it did at the end of last season.  The biggest news of the offseason was the resignation of Team President Kevin Mather after an embarrassing video came to light where he revealed way too much about the behind the scenes workings of the organization and his opinions on the Mariners' stars and top prospects.

Most Important Hitter

Kyle Lewis

In 2020, Kyle Lewis might have been the biggest breakout surprise of the season.  The former Golden Spikes winner in college finally showed why he was a first round pick and a potential face of a franchise.  With all that said, he ended the year in quite a slump.  In a normal season, we would have been able to see if he could come out of that slump or if that slump would have defined his season.  Now we are entering 2021, and the Mariners are counting on Lewis being the superstar he was the first half the 2020 season.  The real answer is we don't know which is the real Kyle Lewis.  Either way, for the Mariners to have success in 2021, Lewis needs to be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Justus Sheffield

Another surprise of the 2020 season, Justus Sheffield finally fulfilled some of the promise he showed as a top prospect that was the centerpiece of the package sent to the Mariners by the Yankees in the James Paxton deal.  (On a side note, it is quite ironic that both Paxton and Sheffield are now in the same rotation in Seattle.)  Sheffield had a quiet breakout season and is now going to be counted on as a dependable key piece of their rotation in 2021.  He needs to continue to grow and take steps forward to show that he can be counted on in 2021 and beyond.

Prospect to Watch

Jarred Kelenic

Give the front office some credit!  In 2018, the Mariners were one of the oldest rosters in the league and had one of the worst farm systems.  Now, they are one of the youngest rosters with one of the top farm systems about to make some serious impact at the big league level.  They have 6 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball, along with two in the top 5.  It was hard to choose just one prospect because I see multiple players making their big league debut and having a huge impact in 2021.  Logan Gilbert is a big flamethrower that could easily be the ace of the Mariners' staff by the end of the season.  However, the only real answer here is Jarred Kelenic.  The centerpiece of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade with the Mets, Kelenic has been flying up the prospect lists (now at #4 in baseball) ever since he was drafted and now seems ready to be a star.  He was also one of the primary targets of the Kevin Mather rant, criticizing him for not taking a club-friendly long-term contract and admitting that the Mariners are planning on manipulating his service time.  Even though he has never played over AA ball, he might be starting in leftfield on Opening Day just for the club to save some face and see if his star can truly take off.

2021 Predictions

4th in AL West

This is a hard one to predict.  The Mariners surprised in the short 2020 season, but they also seem content to look towards 2022 as their year to make the big leap into contention.  At the same time, they have a ton of exciting young talent that will be hitting the field every night.  The turmoil in the front office could also unite the young roster or turn them against the organization.  I think they will show flashes of the possible greatness that is to come while uniting together, but ultimately they are going to still be a year away.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up around a .500 record though.

Fearless Prediction

The Mariners will have four straight Rookies of the Year.

Like I said, the Mariners have a ridiculous farm system filled with talent that will be hitting the big leagues over the next few years.  Kyle Lewis surprised everyone last season by winning Rookie of the Year.  Jarred Kelenic is definitely a favorite to win that award in 2021.  In 2022, the Mariners' next big prospect Julio Rodriguez should be ready to break out.  In 2023, stud infielder Noelvi Marte (who will probably work his way up to a top 10 prospect ranking before he hits the big leagues) will be the next big star.  All of that without even mentioning the pitching studs like Logan Gilbert that could be in the running for the award as well.  So although the team might not be great this season, and the front office might currently be a dumpster fire, it is a pretty exciting time to be a Mariners fan.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

In 2014, the Seattle Mariners surprised everyone: first by landing one of the game's biggest superstars, and second by coming just one game short of their first playoff birth since 2001.  Will 2015 continue their new-found success?

Last Season

87-75, 3rd in AL West

The hype around the M's 2014 season started with the surprise signing of former-Yankee Robinson Cano to help jumpstart what had been a historically bad offense.  Many people criticized the move, saying one player cannot make that much of a difference.  However, all the nay-sayers were proven wrong when the Mariners, led by new manager Lloyd McClendon, finished with their best record since 2007, and still had a shot at a Wild Card birth on the last day of the season.  With Felix Hernandez continuing to anchor a stellar pitching staff and Cano leading an improving offense, now all the critics are saying that the 2014 success is just the beginning.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

Although the offense improved, the Mariners' lineup still was lacking depth and consistency.  That was addressed in the offseason with the signing of DH Nelson Cruz, who is coming off a career year with Baltimore.  The M's also worked to improve rightfield, first by trading current rightfielder Michael Saunders to Toronto for starting pitcher JA Happ (Happ took the place of departing Comback Player of the Year, Chris Young, in the rotation), and then acquiring Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano to work in a righty/lefty platoon.  The only impact player lost in those deals was hard-throwing reliever Brandon Maurer, who went to San Diego.  Dealing Maurer will not impact the club though, as the Mariners sport one of the deepest and strongest bullpens in the league.  By adding veteran Rickie Weeks as a bench utility man, the Mariners seem to have quite a complete roster.

Most Important Hitter

Dustin Ackley

It is hard to believe looking back on the 2009 Draft that there were two can't miss prospects at the top of the board.  The first was Stephen Strasburg, who has shown why he was so highly touted coming out of San Diego State.  The second was thought to be as much of a slam dunk as a hitter as Strasburg was as a pitcher.  That prospect was Dustin Ackley.  So far in Ackley's 3+ year career, through a myriad of struggles and position changes, he has yet to live up to any of the hype surrounding his draft selection.  Perhaps more frustrating is college teammate and current Mariner teammate Kyle Seager has looked more like the talent expected out of Ackley, winning a Gold Glove and third base and making his first All Star team in 2014.  Ackley showed flashes of greatness in 2014, finishing with career highs in home runs (14) ad RBI's (65), however if the Mariners want to take the next step offensively, Dustin Ackley needs to start hitting like his pedigree says he can.  If not, the Mariners might have themselves one of the biggest draft busts in baseball history.  (By the way, to add insult to injury, the 25th pick in that draft was Mike Trout.)

Most Important Pitcher

James Paxton

The Mariners, even through the really bad year, have always been rich when it comes to pitching.  The last few years, Mariners fans have heard about a "Big 3" group of starting pitchers working their way to the big leagues.  Danny Hultzen, the 2nd overall pick in 2011, was derailed by injuries.  However, 2014 was the year the other two of the "Big 3" hit Seattle.  Taijuan Walker was the one everyone wanted to see, but due to injuries his first full season was a bit of a let down.  The most overlooked of the "Big 3" ended up being the most successful in 2014, James Paxton.  Although dealing with his own injury issues, Paxton showed enough dominance to cement his place in the rotation and is now being counted on as the left-handed ace to be slotted in behind King Felix and Hisahi Iwakuma in 2015.  With no one knowing how much success to expect out of the newly acquired JA Happ, it is on Paxton's shoulders to be the dominant lefty in the Mariners' rotation and keep the pitching staff the immense strength it has been.

Player to Watch

D.J. Peterson

The Mariners are counting on Logan Morrison to be an impact bat at first base this season.  Knowing that his career so far has been one of injuries and inconsistency, that is less than a sure thing.  If he struggles or gets injured, former top prospect and current bust Jesus Montero might get a chance to show what he can can do, but also look for a potential early arrival of D.J. Peterson.  Ranked as the Mariners' #2 prospect and MLB.com's #51 prospect overall, Peterson is expected to be an impact power bat that can anchor the heart of any lineup in the future.  If things work out right, that future could start this season.

Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALCS

If you haven't figured out quite yet, I am a die-hard Mariners fan.  With that said, I can't remember a time when expectations were as high as they are this year.  Most experts are picking them to make the playoffs, win the division, or even make their first World Series appearance in franchise history.  With the addition of Nelson Cruz giving Robinson Cano added protection in the lineup and taking pressure off younger hitters like Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino, and King Felix leading a pitching staff that looks as strong as ever (especially with a healthy Taijuan Walker finally looking ready to show why he has been one of the most talked about pitching prospects in all of baseball), all of these predictions seem completely realistic.  As a fan, I feel like I did before the 2013 NFL season.  I am also a Seattle Seahawks fan, and after their run in the playoffs in 2012, I truly thought the sky was the limit for them in 2013.  However, I had been a Seattle sports fan for too long (Save Our Sonics!) to get my hopes up too high.  I was afraid to predict them to finish as high as I knew they possibly could because, honestly, they always underwhelmed.  That is the same feeling I have going into the 2015 MLB season.  Do they have the roster to go all the way?  They absolutely do, but history has shown that the Mariners have never been able to live up to lofty expectations.  If they find themselves in the playoffs, they will go deep as they will be able to out pitch almost any team they face.  I just hope they can get that far because this is their best shot in over a decade at making a deep playoff run.