2016 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners greatly underwhelmed on high expectations in 2015 that led to a complete overhaul on the field, in the dugout, and in the front office.  Will all the changes made lead to more success for the M's in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALCS

2015 Result: 76-86, 4th in AL West

Many people were picking the Mariners to finally make a World Series in 2015.  A number of injuries and disappointing seasons led to an all-around disappointing season.  The question was did they disappoint in 2015 or over-perform in 2014 so much that it led to unrealistic expectations?  Either way, 2015 did not go as planned and led to a mid-season firing of their general manager.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Mariners were the most active team in baseball this offseason.  This all started right at the end of the 2015 season when Jerry DiPoto was hired as the new general manager.  Next came a series of moves that changed almost half of the Mariners' 40 man roster.  Out went players like Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and almost the entire bullpen.  In came Nori Aoki, Leonys Martin, Adam Lind, Chris Iannetta, Steve Cishek, Joaquin Benoit, Wade Miley, and Nate Karns.  None of them are blockbuster moves, but the combination of all of them make a major impact.  The other big move was replacing manager Lloyd McClendon with former big leaguer and rookie manager Scott Servais.  In fact, the only coach kept from the year before was Mariner legend Edgar Martinez as hitting coach.  It was an overhaul rarely seen in baseball.

Most Important Hitter

Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano had one of his worst seasons as a pro in 2015.  He started off the season injured but tried to play through it, which led to a terrible start.  He ended the season much closer to what we have come to expect from Cano, but the overall totals were not that impressive.  With Cano coming into the season healthy, he needs to get back to the production that made him one of the best players in baseball.  If he doesn't, the Mariners are not going anywhere in the foreseeable future.

Most Important Pitcher

Taijuan Walker

It wasn't too long ago that Taijuan Walker was considered one of the best prospects in baseball.  He has now had a couple seasons in the big leagues, but his production has yet to scratch his potential.  He is only entering his age 23 season, but this is a big year for Walker.  He needs to take a big step forward in becoming the superstar many think he can be.  If he does find his groove, him and King Felix could be one of the more formidable top two in any rotation in the league.

Player to Watch

Dae-Ho Lee

The Mariners had a huge wave of prospects come up in the last few seasons.  Some worked out, some didn't, but it left behind a depleted farm system.  Most of the Mariners' top prospects are still several years away.  One rookie projected to make the Opening Day roster is a foreign import, something that has become a Mariner specialty.  Dae-Ho Lee is a 33 year old first baseman from Korea the Mariners signed this offseason.  He is a big dude, standing 6'4" and weighing in at 250 pounds.  He hit 40 home runs last season in Japan, and the Mariners are hoping to see some of that power transfer over to America as he is slated to complete a first base platoon with Adam Lind.

2016 Prediction

3rd in AL West

The Mariners had so many things go wrong last year to lead to their disappointing season.  However, this team is completely unrecognizable from the team that played in September.  Change is exciting, but also uncertain.  They have to play better than they did last year.  Look for some improvement, but a complete rebuild like this takes at least a year to really settle and show its full potential.

Fearless Prediction

Hisashi Iwakuma makes the All Star Team.

Hisashi Iwakuma has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three or four seasons.  In 2013, he made the All Star Team and was 3rd in Cy Young voting.  A series of injuries marred the last two seasons though.  He was almost signed by the Dodgers this offseason, but a questionable physical forced them to reconsider, leading to a return to Seattle.  If he stays healthy, look for him to be back in the Mid-Summer Classic, completing what could potentially be one of the better top three starters in all of baseball (Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker).

2015 MLB Trading Deadline: Who Should Go Where?

With one week remaining, and the trades that had Scott Kazmir and Aramis Ramirez switching teams yesterday, the mad dash to July 31st and the MLB Trading Deadline has officially begun.  One thing that has happened thanks to the second Wild Card is that more teams still feel like they have a shot at making the postseason.  (The worst team in the American League is only 9.5 games out of the Wild Card.)  There has been talk recently by rookie Commissioner Manfred to push the Trade Deadline back because of this new form of parody, but for now we have a lot of teams buying, and some teams trying to decide whether they should give up and start selling.

Another factor in this year's Trade Deadline is the importance teams have placed on prospects and draft picks.  With the emergence of phenoms like Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa, teams are not wanting to part with their big-name prospects to get a player for a couple months.  Teams are much less likely to sacrifice the future for the present now.  On the other side, selling teams are asking higher prices for players with expiring contracts because keeping them could mean giving them a qualifying offer in the offseason, guaranteeing them an extra first round pick in next year's draft if they decide to leave.  So teams wanting to unload talent are making sure they get top-notch talent for their players, but the buying teams are less willing to give up this talent fearing they could be parting with the next superstar.  (This is especially so now that the rules have changed.  To offer a player a qualifying offer with a draft pick attached, you have to have the player on your roster for the entire season.)  With all this said, no one really knows what to expect from the Trade Deadline this year.  There are teams like the Cubs and Astros that are ahead of schedule in their development and are trying to balance keeping the core together for the future while making a competitive run at the playoffs this year.  You also have teams like the Tigers, who are not really out of the playoff chase, but are considering selling to ensure a future.

Let's stop and look at the top 10 players that are potentially available this Trade Deadline, how available they are (1-5 scale, 1 meaning not likely, 5 meaning very likely), and one team that would like to have them for the rest of the year.

10.  Jonathan Papelbon

Trade Likelihood: 5

Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs

Jonathan Papelbon has been a superstar closer for a decade now.  He is also on a losing team just about to start a major rebuilding process.  He wants out, and Philly wants him out.  He has never really had a good relationship with the city there.  The Cubs could use some bullpen help down the stretch this year.  They could also use his veteran leadership on such a young roster.  Theo Epstein had success in Boston with Papelbon, which he has shown he values.  The question is if the Cubs will be willing to give up the prospects it will take to make the move.  Whether it is to the Cubs or not, Papelbon will be on the move.  The Cubs just make the most sense.

9.  Francisco Rodriguez

Trade Likelihood: 4

Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays

K-Rod is a little more under the radar than Papelbon.  However, he might be a better option for teams needing bullpen help.  He has a similar track record as Papelbon, but he doesn't come with the baggage.  As we saw with the Aramis Ramirez trade, the Brewers are willing to part with players for small prices too.  He seems like a perfect fit for a team like the Blue Jays.  The Jays may have the best lineup in baseball, but their pitching, starting and relief, has held them back all season.  Bringing in a proven closer like K-Rod might be the small push the Blue Jays need to get over the edge.  Whether it is K-Rod or not, the Jays need something.

8.  Hisashi Iwakuma

Trade Likelihood: 2

Landing Spot: Kansas City Royals

As a Mariners fan, one thing I have learned in recent years about Seattle is they rarely sell, and if they do, it has to help the team in the short-term and long-term.  No one has said anything about Hisashi Iwakuma being available on the trade market, but the Mariner front office is also very closed-lip publicly about any possible transactions.  This is a player I think the Mariners should consider shopping.  He is a high-quality starter no one really talks about.  Unless they think they can re-sign him this offseason, or think the draft pick from the qualifying offer is greater than any offers on the table, they should pull the trigger.  A perfect landing spot for Kuma would be the Royals.  The only chink in the defending AL Champs' armor is an elite starter to front their rotation.  This would give them that guy, and probably for a lot cheaper than some of the more elite names.

7.  Yoenis Cespedes

Trade Likelihood: 2

Landing Spot: New York Mets

The Tigers are one of those teams sitting in limbo right now.  They could make a run for the Wild Card spot, but they also have some notable expiring contracts on their roster they don't know if they can bring back.  The Tigers are deciding if it is more important to stay competitive this year or be more competitive the next couple years.  If they decide to sell, Cespedes is one of the guys who could be on the move.  He is one of the most underrated players in the league, maybe because he is potentially looking at his fourth team in a year.  The Mets have a stockpile of young talent and are in the mix this year.  Trading away one of their phenom arms might be able to give them the punch the offense needs to get over the hump.  It could also keep the Tigers relevant down the stretch this year with the other bats they would still have in their lineup.

6.  Koji Uehara

Trade Likelihood: 3

Landing Spot: Washington Nationals

The Red Sox have not been the team everyone thought they would be this year.  They are currently in the cellar of the AL East with the worst record in the American League.  They have some pieces they could consider selling, with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez topping that list.  I can't see them parting with their two top free agency splashes this last season though.  Their closer is a much more likely candidate.  Every team is looking for bullpen help, especially after seeing what the Royals were able to do last year with a top notch pen.  The Nationals have the lineup (especially as everyone starts to get healthy) to compete in the postseason.  They also have the arms in the rotation.  Just a little help in the bullpen from a guy like Koji might put them over the top.

5.  Ben Zobrist

Trade Likelihood: 4

Landing Spot: Minnesota Twins

Oakland loves to tinker.  Ben Zobrist was the one of the few players in all their dealing last offseason that was an established player when they acquired him.  With them not able to compete this year, he makes the best candidate to be traded.  With Kazmir already gone, it is obvious they are in selling mode.  The Twins, one of the most unlikely contenders this season, would make a lot of sense for Zobrist.  He is a strong, switch-hitting bat that can play anywhere in the field.  It is the kind of subtle move that would make sense for a team like the Twins, who had a different kind of mid-season boost when Ervin Santana ended his 80 game suspension recently.  One more bat might just get them in the playoffs.

4.  Adrian Beltre

Trade Likelihood: 1

Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants

There has been no chatter about Beltre being on the trading block.  I mentioned at the beginning of the season that by this point, he should be.  If it weren't for Beltre, Joey Gallo would be as much of a household name as Kris Bryant right now.  If the Rangers want to make room for Gallo now, since they aren't really in contention this season, trading Beltre would be on the table.  There isn't a huge market for third basemen so the trade seems unlikely (especially considering Beltre still has one year left on his contract), but the contending team that needs one the most right now is the Giants.  The Casey McGehee experiment did not work this year, and Beltre might lift that offense just enough to keep them in contention the rest of the way.

3.  Johnny Cueto

Trade Likelihood: 4

Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays

The Reds need to deal Cueto.  He is one of the best pitchers in baseball on one of the worst teams in baseball.  It's unclear if the Reds will undergo a full fire sale, but Cueto and Jay Bruce seem to be the minimum to swap teams.  The only thing that could keep Cueto in Cincinnati would be injury concerns that have popped up recently.  On the other side, if I were the Blue Jays, I would be all in on this season.  They are in contention for the division and the Wild Card still, and are just a couple pitchers away from being one of the scariest teams in the AL.  I already said earlier they should acquire a closer like Francisco Rodriguez.  Picking up an ace like Cueto would truly make them a force going down the stretch.

2.  David Price

Trade Likelihood: 2

Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers

David Price is in the same boat as Yoenis Cespedes.  The Tigers seem less than confident that he will stay when this season ends and his contract expires.  Shopping him seems like a logical choice, even if they are still in contention.  The Dodgers seem like a perfect landing spot for him.  They have the two best pitchers in baseball right now in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but their rotation after these two is non-existent.  Bringing in another ace like Price would solidify the rotation as the most dominant in baseball.  It also wouldn't commit them past this season so they could still try and sign Greinke in the winter.  The question is would the Dodgers be willing to give up one or two of their top-notch prospects they have been protecting to make the splash they need to make a World Series run this season.

1.  Cole Hamels

Trade Likelihood: 5

Landing Spot: New York Yankees

Cole Hamels is the prize of the Trade Deadline this season.  He needs to be dealt for the Phillies to move on, and he still has 3 years left under his contract.  He also is an experienced postseason pitcher that has showed he can shine under the lights of October.  Every contending team should be calling the Phillies about Hamels.  The only issue is the price tag will be high.  That is why he wasn't dealt last offseason, and also why he hasn't been dealt yet this season.  For some reason, this feels like it all leads to a team like the Yankees landing him.  The Yanks have surprised everyone by playing some great baseball this year.  Their one weakness is their rotation, and a guy like Hamels seems destined to pitch in the pinstripes.


We will see if my crystal ball pans out for me this time.  The one thing we know about the Trade Deadline is nothing is out of the question.

Where do you think these players should go?  Did I miss any high-profile players on the trading block?  Start the debate below...

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

In 2014, the Seattle Mariners surprised everyone: first by landing one of the game's biggest superstars, and second by coming just one game short of their first playoff birth since 2001.  Will 2015 continue their new-found success?

Last Season

87-75, 3rd in AL West

The hype around the M's 2014 season started with the surprise signing of former-Yankee Robinson Cano to help jumpstart what had been a historically bad offense.  Many people criticized the move, saying one player cannot make that much of a difference.  However, all the nay-sayers were proven wrong when the Mariners, led by new manager Lloyd McClendon, finished with their best record since 2007, and still had a shot at a Wild Card birth on the last day of the season.  With Felix Hernandez continuing to anchor a stellar pitching staff and Cano leading an improving offense, now all the critics are saying that the 2014 success is just the beginning.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

Although the offense improved, the Mariners' lineup still was lacking depth and consistency.  That was addressed in the offseason with the signing of DH Nelson Cruz, who is coming off a career year with Baltimore.  The M's also worked to improve rightfield, first by trading current rightfielder Michael Saunders to Toronto for starting pitcher JA Happ (Happ took the place of departing Comback Player of the Year, Chris Young, in the rotation), and then acquiring Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano to work in a righty/lefty platoon.  The only impact player lost in those deals was hard-throwing reliever Brandon Maurer, who went to San Diego.  Dealing Maurer will not impact the club though, as the Mariners sport one of the deepest and strongest bullpens in the league.  By adding veteran Rickie Weeks as a bench utility man, the Mariners seem to have quite a complete roster.

Most Important Hitter

Dustin Ackley

It is hard to believe looking back on the 2009 Draft that there were two can't miss prospects at the top of the board.  The first was Stephen Strasburg, who has shown why he was so highly touted coming out of San Diego State.  The second was thought to be as much of a slam dunk as a hitter as Strasburg was as a pitcher.  That prospect was Dustin Ackley.  So far in Ackley's 3+ year career, through a myriad of struggles and position changes, he has yet to live up to any of the hype surrounding his draft selection.  Perhaps more frustrating is college teammate and current Mariner teammate Kyle Seager has looked more like the talent expected out of Ackley, winning a Gold Glove and third base and making his first All Star team in 2014.  Ackley showed flashes of greatness in 2014, finishing with career highs in home runs (14) ad RBI's (65), however if the Mariners want to take the next step offensively, Dustin Ackley needs to start hitting like his pedigree says he can.  If not, the Mariners might have themselves one of the biggest draft busts in baseball history.  (By the way, to add insult to injury, the 25th pick in that draft was Mike Trout.)

Most Important Pitcher

James Paxton

The Mariners, even through the really bad year, have always been rich when it comes to pitching.  The last few years, Mariners fans have heard about a "Big 3" group of starting pitchers working their way to the big leagues.  Danny Hultzen, the 2nd overall pick in 2011, was derailed by injuries.  However, 2014 was the year the other two of the "Big 3" hit Seattle.  Taijuan Walker was the one everyone wanted to see, but due to injuries his first full season was a bit of a let down.  The most overlooked of the "Big 3" ended up being the most successful in 2014, James Paxton.  Although dealing with his own injury issues, Paxton showed enough dominance to cement his place in the rotation and is now being counted on as the left-handed ace to be slotted in behind King Felix and Hisahi Iwakuma in 2015.  With no one knowing how much success to expect out of the newly acquired JA Happ, it is on Paxton's shoulders to be the dominant lefty in the Mariners' rotation and keep the pitching staff the immense strength it has been.

Player to Watch

D.J. Peterson

The Mariners are counting on Logan Morrison to be an impact bat at first base this season.  Knowing that his career so far has been one of injuries and inconsistency, that is less than a sure thing.  If he struggles or gets injured, former top prospect and current bust Jesus Montero might get a chance to show what he can can do, but also look for a potential early arrival of D.J. Peterson.  Ranked as the Mariners' #2 prospect and MLB.com's #51 prospect overall, Peterson is expected to be an impact power bat that can anchor the heart of any lineup in the future.  If things work out right, that future could start this season.

Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALCS

If you haven't figured out quite yet, I am a die-hard Mariners fan.  With that said, I can't remember a time when expectations were as high as they are this year.  Most experts are picking them to make the playoffs, win the division, or even make their first World Series appearance in franchise history.  With the addition of Nelson Cruz giving Robinson Cano added protection in the lineup and taking pressure off younger hitters like Kyle Seager and Mike Zunino, and King Felix leading a pitching staff that looks as strong as ever (especially with a healthy Taijuan Walker finally looking ready to show why he has been one of the most talked about pitching prospects in all of baseball), all of these predictions seem completely realistic.  As a fan, I feel like I did before the 2013 NFL season.  I am also a Seattle Seahawks fan, and after their run in the playoffs in 2012, I truly thought the sky was the limit for them in 2013.  However, I had been a Seattle sports fan for too long (Save Our Sonics!) to get my hopes up too high.  I was afraid to predict them to finish as high as I knew they possibly could because, honestly, they always underwhelmed.  That is the same feeling I have going into the 2015 MLB season.  Do they have the roster to go all the way?  They absolutely do, but history has shown that the Mariners have never been able to live up to lofty expectations.  If they find themselves in the playoffs, they will go deep as they will be able to out pitch almost any team they face.  I just hope they can get that far because this is their best shot in over a decade at making a deep playoff run.