2015 MLB Trading Deadline: Who Should Go Where?

With one week remaining, and the trades that had Scott Kazmir and Aramis Ramirez switching teams yesterday, the mad dash to July 31st and the MLB Trading Deadline has officially begun.  One thing that has happened thanks to the second Wild Card is that more teams still feel like they have a shot at making the postseason.  (The worst team in the American League is only 9.5 games out of the Wild Card.)  There has been talk recently by rookie Commissioner Manfred to push the Trade Deadline back because of this new form of parody, but for now we have a lot of teams buying, and some teams trying to decide whether they should give up and start selling.

Another factor in this year's Trade Deadline is the importance teams have placed on prospects and draft picks.  With the emergence of phenoms like Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa, teams are not wanting to part with their big-name prospects to get a player for a couple months.  Teams are much less likely to sacrifice the future for the present now.  On the other side, selling teams are asking higher prices for players with expiring contracts because keeping them could mean giving them a qualifying offer in the offseason, guaranteeing them an extra first round pick in next year's draft if they decide to leave.  So teams wanting to unload talent are making sure they get top-notch talent for their players, but the buying teams are less willing to give up this talent fearing they could be parting with the next superstar.  (This is especially so now that the rules have changed.  To offer a player a qualifying offer with a draft pick attached, you have to have the player on your roster for the entire season.)  With all this said, no one really knows what to expect from the Trade Deadline this year.  There are teams like the Cubs and Astros that are ahead of schedule in their development and are trying to balance keeping the core together for the future while making a competitive run at the playoffs this year.  You also have teams like the Tigers, who are not really out of the playoff chase, but are considering selling to ensure a future.

Let's stop and look at the top 10 players that are potentially available this Trade Deadline, how available they are (1-5 scale, 1 meaning not likely, 5 meaning very likely), and one team that would like to have them for the rest of the year.

10.  Jonathan Papelbon

Trade Likelihood: 5

Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs

Jonathan Papelbon has been a superstar closer for a decade now.  He is also on a losing team just about to start a major rebuilding process.  He wants out, and Philly wants him out.  He has never really had a good relationship with the city there.  The Cubs could use some bullpen help down the stretch this year.  They could also use his veteran leadership on such a young roster.  Theo Epstein had success in Boston with Papelbon, which he has shown he values.  The question is if the Cubs will be willing to give up the prospects it will take to make the move.  Whether it is to the Cubs or not, Papelbon will be on the move.  The Cubs just make the most sense.

9.  Francisco Rodriguez

Trade Likelihood: 4

Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays

K-Rod is a little more under the radar than Papelbon.  However, he might be a better option for teams needing bullpen help.  He has a similar track record as Papelbon, but he doesn't come with the baggage.  As we saw with the Aramis Ramirez trade, the Brewers are willing to part with players for small prices too.  He seems like a perfect fit for a team like the Blue Jays.  The Jays may have the best lineup in baseball, but their pitching, starting and relief, has held them back all season.  Bringing in a proven closer like K-Rod might be the small push the Blue Jays need to get over the edge.  Whether it is K-Rod or not, the Jays need something.

8.  Hisashi Iwakuma

Trade Likelihood: 2

Landing Spot: Kansas City Royals

As a Mariners fan, one thing I have learned in recent years about Seattle is they rarely sell, and if they do, it has to help the team in the short-term and long-term.  No one has said anything about Hisashi Iwakuma being available on the trade market, but the Mariner front office is also very closed-lip publicly about any possible transactions.  This is a player I think the Mariners should consider shopping.  He is a high-quality starter no one really talks about.  Unless they think they can re-sign him this offseason, or think the draft pick from the qualifying offer is greater than any offers on the table, they should pull the trigger.  A perfect landing spot for Kuma would be the Royals.  The only chink in the defending AL Champs' armor is an elite starter to front their rotation.  This would give them that guy, and probably for a lot cheaper than some of the more elite names.

7.  Yoenis Cespedes

Trade Likelihood: 2

Landing Spot: New York Mets

The Tigers are one of those teams sitting in limbo right now.  They could make a run for the Wild Card spot, but they also have some notable expiring contracts on their roster they don't know if they can bring back.  The Tigers are deciding if it is more important to stay competitive this year or be more competitive the next couple years.  If they decide to sell, Cespedes is one of the guys who could be on the move.  He is one of the most underrated players in the league, maybe because he is potentially looking at his fourth team in a year.  The Mets have a stockpile of young talent and are in the mix this year.  Trading away one of their phenom arms might be able to give them the punch the offense needs to get over the hump.  It could also keep the Tigers relevant down the stretch this year with the other bats they would still have in their lineup.

6.  Koji Uehara

Trade Likelihood: 3

Landing Spot: Washington Nationals

The Red Sox have not been the team everyone thought they would be this year.  They are currently in the cellar of the AL East with the worst record in the American League.  They have some pieces they could consider selling, with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez topping that list.  I can't see them parting with their two top free agency splashes this last season though.  Their closer is a much more likely candidate.  Every team is looking for bullpen help, especially after seeing what the Royals were able to do last year with a top notch pen.  The Nationals have the lineup (especially as everyone starts to get healthy) to compete in the postseason.  They also have the arms in the rotation.  Just a little help in the bullpen from a guy like Koji might put them over the top.

5.  Ben Zobrist

Trade Likelihood: 4

Landing Spot: Minnesota Twins

Oakland loves to tinker.  Ben Zobrist was the one of the few players in all their dealing last offseason that was an established player when they acquired him.  With them not able to compete this year, he makes the best candidate to be traded.  With Kazmir already gone, it is obvious they are in selling mode.  The Twins, one of the most unlikely contenders this season, would make a lot of sense for Zobrist.  He is a strong, switch-hitting bat that can play anywhere in the field.  It is the kind of subtle move that would make sense for a team like the Twins, who had a different kind of mid-season boost when Ervin Santana ended his 80 game suspension recently.  One more bat might just get them in the playoffs.

4.  Adrian Beltre

Trade Likelihood: 1

Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants

There has been no chatter about Beltre being on the trading block.  I mentioned at the beginning of the season that by this point, he should be.  If it weren't for Beltre, Joey Gallo would be as much of a household name as Kris Bryant right now.  If the Rangers want to make room for Gallo now, since they aren't really in contention this season, trading Beltre would be on the table.  There isn't a huge market for third basemen so the trade seems unlikely (especially considering Beltre still has one year left on his contract), but the contending team that needs one the most right now is the Giants.  The Casey McGehee experiment did not work this year, and Beltre might lift that offense just enough to keep them in contention the rest of the way.

3.  Johnny Cueto

Trade Likelihood: 4

Landing Spot: Toronto Blue Jays

The Reds need to deal Cueto.  He is one of the best pitchers in baseball on one of the worst teams in baseball.  It's unclear if the Reds will undergo a full fire sale, but Cueto and Jay Bruce seem to be the minimum to swap teams.  The only thing that could keep Cueto in Cincinnati would be injury concerns that have popped up recently.  On the other side, if I were the Blue Jays, I would be all in on this season.  They are in contention for the division and the Wild Card still, and are just a couple pitchers away from being one of the scariest teams in the AL.  I already said earlier they should acquire a closer like Francisco Rodriguez.  Picking up an ace like Cueto would truly make them a force going down the stretch.

2.  David Price

Trade Likelihood: 2

Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers

David Price is in the same boat as Yoenis Cespedes.  The Tigers seem less than confident that he will stay when this season ends and his contract expires.  Shopping him seems like a logical choice, even if they are still in contention.  The Dodgers seem like a perfect landing spot for him.  They have the two best pitchers in baseball right now in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, but their rotation after these two is non-existent.  Bringing in another ace like Price would solidify the rotation as the most dominant in baseball.  It also wouldn't commit them past this season so they could still try and sign Greinke in the winter.  The question is would the Dodgers be willing to give up one or two of their top-notch prospects they have been protecting to make the splash they need to make a World Series run this season.

1.  Cole Hamels

Trade Likelihood: 5

Landing Spot: New York Yankees

Cole Hamels is the prize of the Trade Deadline this season.  He needs to be dealt for the Phillies to move on, and he still has 3 years left under his contract.  He also is an experienced postseason pitcher that has showed he can shine under the lights of October.  Every contending team should be calling the Phillies about Hamels.  The only issue is the price tag will be high.  That is why he wasn't dealt last offseason, and also why he hasn't been dealt yet this season.  For some reason, this feels like it all leads to a team like the Yankees landing him.  The Yanks have surprised everyone by playing some great baseball this year.  Their one weakness is their rotation, and a guy like Hamels seems destined to pitch in the pinstripes.


We will see if my crystal ball pans out for me this time.  The one thing we know about the Trade Deadline is nothing is out of the question.

Where do you think these players should go?  Did I miss any high-profile players on the trading block?  Start the debate below...

MLB Year in Review: ASG-to-ASG 2014

Growing up, I watched a lot of ESPN and SportsCenter.  It was one of the primary viewing choices of my childhood.  This made this mid-July week somewhat of a downer growing up since nothing happens in the sports world outside the MLB All Star Game.  SportsCenter is always looking for interesting topics for this lackluster sports week.  Nowadays, this doesn't change the SportsCenter programming at all since all they talk about now is the NFL and LeBron James all year anyways.  When I was a kid, believe it or not, SportsCenter still considered baseball as a relevant sport worth covering.  So while baseball was taking a break, they still worked to find baseball stories to talk about.  One of my favorite baseball pieces they did every year during the All Star Break was determine who had the best last 162 games.  They would calculate stats from the last All Star Break to the current All Star Break and compare them as full season stats.  Unfortunately, SportsCenter is too busy debating the first pick in next year's NFL draft to waste time on this fascinating premise.  So I have decided to compile all these stats on my own and determine who would has had the best last full season.

Here is the process I went through.  I went through the league leaders from Post All Star 2013 stats and the 2014 first half stats.  For the hitters, I compiled the top 50 leaders in both time frames in hits, doubles, home runs, RBI's, and runs.  This gave me 160 hitters I compiled stats for from the last year.  For the pitchers, I went through the same process with wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, and saves (only calculated the top 30 in saves).  I realize this left out the always-overlooked middle reliever, but oh well.  They are always overlooked anyways so one more time won't be too tragic.  This resulted in 151 pitchers to compare.  Let's look at some top lists.

AL Batting Average

Victor Martinez – DET	.343
Robinson Cano – NYY / SEA	.333
Adrian Beltre – TEX	.327
Mike Trout – LAA	.316
Jose Altuve – HOU	.315
JD Martinez – HOU / DET	.322

not enough AB's

It turns out the amazingly hot starts this year from Victor Martinez and Jose Altuve actually started last season.  This is also not the last time you will see Mike Trout's name.

NL Batting Average

Andrew McCutchen – PIT	.330
Scooter Gennett – MIL	.325
Troy Tulowitzki – COL	.323
Freddie Freeman – ATL	.311
Charlie Blackmon – COL	.310
Michael Cuddyer – COL	.327
Casey McGehee – MIA	.319

not enough AB's

Much like Martinez and Altuve, Charlie Blackmon's hot start this year was foreshadowed by a strong finish last year.  Freddie Freeman is turning into one of the best all-around hitters in the league.  Also, Scooter Gennett has to be the best player nobody has heard of.

AL Home Runs

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR	37
Brandon Moss – OAK	35
Mike Trout – LAA	34
Nelson Cruz – TEX / BAL	33
Chris Davis – BAL	31
David Ortiz – BOS	31

What I noticed from this list is most of these players have been quite inconsistent.  Either they ended last year strong or started this year strong, with the exception of Trout.  By the way, Jose Abreu almost made this list without playing at all last season.

NL Home Runs

Giancarlo Stanton – MIA	35
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	31
Troy Tulowitzki – COL	30
Anthony Rizzo – CHC	30
Andrew McCutchen – PIT	28
Justin Upton – ATL	28
Todd Frazier – CIN	28

There are a few players on this list that just don't get the credit they deserve.  Anthony Rizzo will be a centerpiece of the Cubs latest attempt to rebuild (which might actually work with his bat leading the way).  Also, Paul Goldschmidt is a beast.  I give him 2 more seasons before he gets traded out of Arizona so people actually recognize how good he is.

AL RBI

Miguel Cabrera – DET	117
Mike Trout – LAA	111
Brandon Moss – OAK	109
David Ortiz – BOS	102
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR	102

Here is the first appearance by Miguel Cabrera, which shows that he hasn't been at his Triple Crown level since pre-All Star 2013.  Also, looking at his numbers, how wasn't David Ortiz an All Star?  Also, as a Mariners fan I refuse to give Brandon Moss any credit.

NL RBI

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	109
Jayson Werth – WAS	103
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD	101
Freddie Freeman – ATL	100
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA	98

There's Goldschmidt's name again.  I was surprised to see someone like Jayson Werth putting up these kind of numbers.  No one talks about him, but he has been one of the best run producers of the last year.

AL OPS (On-Base + Slugging)

Mike Trout – LAA	1.014
Victor Martinez – DET	.956
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR	.952
Miguel Cabrera – DET	.929
Brandon Moss – OAK	.911
Jose Abreu – CWS	.968
JD Martinez – HOU / DET	.942

not enough AB's

OPS has become one of the top stats for a hitter's overall production so this is a great one to look at.  No one quite appreciates just how good Jose Abreu has been this first half.  He is already one of the greatest hitters in the league after just half a season.  Here you can also see just how ridiculous Mike Trout is.  Once again, he is from another AL West rival so I hate giving credit, but Trout is impossible to ignore.  Also, over the last year Miguel Cabrera hasn't even been the best hitter on his team.

NL OPS

Andrew McCutchen – PIT	.995
Troy Tulowitzki – COL	.966
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	.950
Freddie Freeman – ATL	.904
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA	.904

This top five shouldn't be surprising.  If you ask anyone for the best top five hitters in the National League, these five names should be the first ones said ... unless you run into some of those ignorant idiots that try to say Yasiel Puig or Bryce Harper.

AL Wins

Max Scherzer – DET	19
Rick Porcello – DET	19
James Shields – KC	18
Jared Weaver – LAA	18
Mark Buehrle – TOR	17

How is Detroit not the best team in the AL?  They have two of the best hitters in the league and the only two 19-win pitchers in the league.  And neither of them are named Verlander.  James Shields doesn't get the respect he deserves either.

NL Wins

Clayton Kershaw – LAD	19
Adam Wainwright – STL	19
Zack Greinke – LAD	18
Jorge De La Rosa – COL	17
Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD	17

After looking at these stats, it is hard to argue against the Dodgers having the best pitching staff in the league.  They have three of the top five in wins.  You expect Wainwright to be on this list, but De La Rosa?!?  Since when does a pitcher for the Rockies have quality stats?

AL ERA (150 IP Min.)

Hisashi Iwakuma – SEA	2.58
Jon Lester – BOS	2.62
Anibal Sanchez – DET	2.63
Chris Sale – CWS	2.71
Felix Hernandez – SEA	2.74

Even with his injury and recent struggles, Hisashi Iwakuma has the best ERA over the last year.  It's easy for him to not get the credit he deserves when King Felix had the best first half in the league this year.

AL ERA Overall

Koji Uehara – BOS	1.07
Greg Holland – KC	1.22
Casey Janssen – TOR	1.79
Zach Britton – BAL	1.82
Joe Smith – LAA	2.07

The numbers and names at the top are to be expected.  The last two names on the list might be surprising though.

NL ERA (150IP Min.)

Clayton Kershaw – LAD	1.68
Johnny Cueto – CIN	2.02
Andrew Cashner – SD	2.25
Zack Greinke – LAD	2.34
Tanner Roark – WAS	2.53

Kershaw, are you kidding me?!?  If he goes on a couple more scoreless runs, he might challenge that Bob Gibson record of a 1.12 ERA this year.  Also, stop talking about Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister.  Tanner Roark is the Nat's fifth starter and the best one they have had over the last year.

NL ERA Overall

Huston Street – SD	1.06
Craig Kimbrel – ATL	1.43
Clayton Kershaw – LAD	1.68
Jose Fernandez – MIA	1.81
Johnny Cueto – CIN	2.02

The most underrated player in the league is by far Huston Street.  He is the best closer in the league, and he doesn't even make the All Star Team.  His ERA is even lower than Koji's.  I find this whole list interesting as only two closers made the list.  The rest are the top starters including Jose Fernandez who would be challenging Kershaw in every stat category if he hadn't gotten hurt.

AL K's

Yu Darvish – TEX	262
David Price – TB	248
Max Scherzer – DET	234
Felix Hernandez – SEA	230
Jon Lester – BOS	208

This is another top five that is exactly who you would expect it to be.  No surprises here.

NL K's

Stephen Strasburg – WAS	231
Clayton Kershaw – LAD	219
Tyson Ross – SD	211
Zack Greinke – LAD	207
AJ Burnett – PIT / PHI	207

You might be surprised to see the old man, AJ Burnett, on here, of whom I heard recently from an analyst is the most overpaid player in baseball history.  At least he strikes guys out.  The other noteworthy thing here is Tyson Ross.  This is the second Padres starter to appear on one of these lists which shows that they are working their way in the right direction.  They just need some hitting.  Some familiar, Seattle?

AL Innings Pitched

David Price – TB	254 1/3
James Shields – KC	224 2/3
Justin Verlander – DET	221 1/3
RA Dickey – TOR	221
Jon Lester – BOS	216 2/3

I find this an interesting list because it shows who might be due for a disappointing second half simply for being overworked.  David Price has thrown 30 more innings than everyone else in the league over the last year.  Buyer beware for those looking to trade for him.

NL Innings Pitched

Adam Wainwright – STL	233
AJ Burnett – PIT / PHI	222 2/3
Wade Miley – ARZ	213
Zack Greinke – LAD	211 1/3
Kyle Lohse – MIL	210 1/3

Here are some great innings eaters in Wainwright, Greinke, and Lohse.  Again, I don't see how people hate on AJ Burnett.  I'm also impressed with Wade Miley as he has needed to step up and the ace after Corbin went down in Spring Training.

AL Saves

Greg Holland – KC	50
Fernando Rodney – TB / SEA	42
Glen Perkins – MIN	37
Joe Nathan – TEX / DET	32
Koji Uehara – BOS	31

Few would argue that Holland has the most dominant stuff in the AL at closer.  Looking at these numbers, it was totally justified that Glen Perkins closed out the All Star Game.  Also, for all his struggles, Joe Nathan has still racked up a respectable amount of saves.  (Honorable Mention - Addison Reed has 37 saves over this time, but has played for both leagues.)

NL Saves

Craig Kimbrel – ATL	53
Kenley Jansen – LAD	46
Huston Street – SD	42
Rafael Soriano – WAS	40
Sergio Romo – SF	39

Craig Kimbrel might be the most automatic three outs in league history.  Once again, look at the number of saves for Huston Street for a team that never reaches the .500 mark.

Looking at these stats, here are the top 5 hitters, starters, and closers ASG-to-ASG.

Hitters

		Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	1B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mike	Trout	LAA	155	564	109	178	36	6	34	102	111	116	161	22	.316	.432	.582	1.014
Andrew	McCutchen	PIT	160	594	98	196	40	9	28	119	96	99	120	22	.330	.426	.569	.995
Troy	Tulowitzki	COL	151	524	102	169	29	1	30	109	82	80	99	2	.323	.412	.553	.966
Victor	Martinez	DET	146	554	74	190	36	0	27	127	88	55	41	2	.343	.402	.554	.956
Paul	Goldschmidt	ARZ	161	607	109	182	49	4	31	98	109	105	157	14	.300	.403	.547	.950

Starters

		Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Clayton	Kershaw	LAD	19	5	1.68	27	27	0	0	187	134	38	35	9	30	219	.193	0.88	7.3	10.5
Adam	Wainwright	STL	19	8	2.59	33	33	0	0	233	189	68	67	13	47	204	.213	1.01	4.3	7.9
Max	Scherzer	DET	19	5	2.99	32	32	0	0	211	169	73	70	18	60	234	.211	1.09	3.9	10.0
Jon	Lester	BOS	16	9	2.62	32	32	0	0	216 2/3	200	78	63	12	51	208	.235	1.16	4.1	8.6
Felix	Hernandez	SEA	13	8	2.74	31	31	0	0	210	164	72	64	9	45	230	.207	1.00	5.1	9.9

Closers

		Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	K/BB	K/9
Craig	Kimbrel	ATL	2	2	1.43	71	0	53	58	69 1/3	34	14	11	2	23	106	.140	0.82	4.6	13.8
Greg	Holland	KC	1	2	1.22	68	0	50	52	66 2/3	43	9	9	4	17	96	.177	0.90	5.6	13.0
Huston	Street	SD	3	1	1.06	60	0	42	44	59 1/3	32	7	7	5	13	62	.152	0.76	4.8	9.4
Koji	Uehara	BOS	7	3	1.07	71	0	31	33	75 2/3	36	9	9	6	7	98	.137	0.57	14.0	11.7
Kenley	Jansen	LAD	2	3	2.48	72	0	46	50	69	48	19	19	4	22	108	.188	1.01	4.9	14.1

To check out all the stats I compiled, click the link below.

2013-2014 ASG-TO-ASG STATS