Showing posts with label Greg Holland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greg Holland. Show all posts

Sunday, April 2, 2017

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#10

The Colorado Rockies quietly have been improving over the last few seasons.  Will 2017 bring about more growth and maybe even a playoff birth?

My 2016 Predictions
4th in NL West
Carlos Gonzalez will be part of a blockbuster trade at the Trade Deadline.

2016 Results
75-87, 3rd in NL West
The Rockies played slightly better than expected in 2016.  They even had an outside shot at a playoff birth in September.  The struggle in Colorado has always been pitching, however a good group of young arms have made this a bright spot.  Over the last few seasons, Carlos Gonzalez has been on the trading block.  I thought last year would be the year he was finally dealt, but the Rockies decided to hold on to him and try to make a run in 2017 with him.

Additions / Subtractions
One of the surprises of the 2017 offseason was the Rockies signing Ian Desmond, who was a shortstop in 2015, a centerfielder in 2016, and is slated to be a first baseman in 2017 in Colorado.  They also bolstered their bullpen by signing closer Greg Holland and lefty Mike Dunn.  Possibly the biggest change this offseason was the firing of manager Walt Weiss and the hiring of former Padres' manager Bud Black.

Most Important Hitter
Trevor Story
When the Rockies traded Troy Tulowitzki in 2015, many were confused as to why.  When Trevor Story burst on the scene in 2016, everyone understood.  Story ended the year with 27 home runs in only 97 games before going down with an injury.  Now he is entering his sophomore season and won't be sneaking up on anybody.  He has several things to prove in 2017.  First, he needs to prove that 2016 wasn't a fluke.  Second, he needs to prove that he can adjust as big league pitchers adjust to him.  Third, he needs to prove that he won't have the same issues his predecessor, Tulowizki, had in being injury proned.  If he is able to prove all these things, he will help make the Rockies one of the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball.

Most Important Pitcher
Greg Holland
The Rockies have taken on a philosophy of building a rotation through their farm system while building a bullpen through trades and free agency.  Greg Holland is a perfect example of this.  Once the closer for the Royals, Holland missed much of the last two seasons with an injury.  He appears to be back to full health, and the Rockies are counting on it as they have made him their closer.  With him anchoring the ninth inning, the Rockies' bullpen sets up pretty well against just about everyone.  If Holland can't cut it, the whole bullpen has to adjust and might not be the strength it looks to be.  All this rides on how Greg Holland is able to pitch this season.

Player to Watch
Jeff Hoffman
The Rockies have one of the youngest rotations in all of baseball, with no starter over the age of 27.  Even with the loss of Chad Bettis to cancer treatments, the starting rotation is also a very deep position going into 2017 with several top prospects waiting in the wings to join the rotation if anything happens.  The best of these starters-in-waiting is Jeff Hoffman, one of the highly-touted prospects the Rockies received in the Troy Tulowitzki trade.  This 24 year old right-hander started 6 games for the Rockies last season, getting a taste of the big leagues.  Now he is ready to make a big impact when they need him.

2017 Prediction
2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game
I love the way the Rockies look this season.  They have always sported a strong lineup, highlighted by batting champ DJ LeMahieu and the most underrated superstar in the league in Nolan Arenado.  Now their lineup was been upgraded by the signing of Ian Desmond.  Their pitching staff has grown up in Colorado and knows how to pitch there.  Their bullpen is strong with Greg Holland, Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, and Adam Ottovino.  They also have a new manager in Bud Black that is a former pitcher.  Everything going on is pointing to the Rockies being the surprise team of the season.  I have them taking a Wild Card spot, but not quite at a point that they can advance past the one game Wild Card Game.  If the Rockies make the playoffs though, this will be considered an extremely successful season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction
A Colorado Rockies player will finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting.
Nolan Arenado is one of the best players in the game.  Ian Desmond has the potential to break out into a superstar at the plate.  One of these two, if not both, will finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting.  If the Rockies are to reach the heights I see them reaching this year, this is something that will have to happen.  Either way, the Rockies should be one of the big topics of conversation of the 2017 season.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

MLB Year in Review: 2014-2015 Wraparound Season

I miss the days when baseball was culturally relevant.  The All Star Break every year is the one time where baseball is all that is happening.  The Break has even been extended another day in recent years to be a 4 day break to stop and focus on the season so far and the stretch run yet to come.  Instead, this leads to just 24 hours of baseball gimmicks, started by listening to the tired Chris Berman, making pretty much his only ESPN appearance outside of football season, call a Home Run Derby and finishing with interviews of All Stars by people who obviously could care less about baseball.  Once the All Star Game is over?  We are back to the NFL and which franchise players will get their long-term deal done.  (Don't think it's a coincidence that an NFL deadline day is encroaching on baseball's week.)  Even at the ESPY's last night, it was shown just how little baseball is in the public mindset when Madison Bumgarner's ridiculous World Series performance loses to LeBron James in the category, "Best Championship Performance."

It's interesting when you think about it.  In the 25 years, baseball was most culturally relevant in the late 90's and early 2000's when the Steroid Era was at its peak.  McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds were putting up numbers that we found out later could only be manufactured in a lab.  In the mid-2000's, baseball was in the news because it was time to clean up the game.  Now the game is clean, and nobody cares.  The only baseball players to see the stage last night at the ESPY's were either retired (Derek Jeter) or leftover from the Steroid Era (Alex Rodriguez).  I guess our society doesn't have the patience for a sport run by statistics, strategy, and history.
Well, I do!  For the second year, I went through and calculated what ESPN used to calculate when they cared about baseball.  Who has had the best last calendar year.  I am calling it the "Wraparound Season."  I took the stats from 2014 post All Star Break and combined them with the stats from the first half of 2015 to see how has had the best last 162 games or so.  This can be a great indicator on who will continue their success into the stretch run this year, or who might be due for struggles from overwork.


AL Batting Average
Miguel Cabrera – DET .336
Jose Abreu – CWS .319
Jose Altuve – HOU .318
Victor Martinez – DET .312
Michael Brantley – CLE .312


Prince Fielder – TEX .339
Nori Aoki – KC / SF .317

First, a couple notes.  Prince Fielder would be first, but he did not have enough at bats having been injured last year.  Nori Aoki is also a footnote since he switched leagues in the offseason.  Everyone wants to talk about the wave of young players coming into the league, but when it comes down to it, Miguel Cabrera is probably still the best hitter, at least in the AL.  Jose Altuve, reluctantly, has become one of my favorite players as he has officially taken the title of best second baseman in the AL from Robinson Cano (everyone wants to say Kipnis or Dozier, but Altuve has the consistency).  It is fascinating that three of the players on this list couldn't even make the All Star Team this year despite being considered three of the league's best hitters.  Jose Abreu went from phenom last year to forgotten this year.  Victor Martinez has been hobbled this year, but hitting is hitting.  Then Michael Brantley has continued to show that he is one of the superstars of the future.  He will probably need to leave Cleveland to truly get the recognition he deserves though.

NL Batting Average
Buster Posey – SF .331
Denard Span – WAS .326
Bryce Harper – WAS .316
Dee Gordon – LAD / MIA .316
Joe Panik – SF .316


Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ .327
Nori Aoki – KC / SF .317

Paul Goldschmidt, possibly the best player nobody knows, due to his injury last year will not be seen much on these lists this year.  There are a few surprises on this list, but the top is not one of them.  Buster Posey, when healthy, is a perennial MVP candidate.  Bryce Harper has been the talk of the league for a reason.  I said at the start of the season that it was time for Harper to start to live up to more of the hype.  I think it is safe to say he has officially done that as he has had one of the best starts to a season we have seen in recent memory.  The other three are surprises.  When you think of key contributors to the Washington Nationals, Denard Span is probably one of the last names you think of.  However, he has turned into one of the best leadoff hitters in the league.  However, the best leadoff hitter might be Dee Gordon.  It is a shame he got injured and had to miss the All Star Game.  Last, you have the latest unlikely hero for the Giants and their World Series run.  However, knowing that this is pretty much his totals for his first 162 games in the majors, Joe Panik would have won the Rookie of the Year last year if he had played more of the season.

AL Home Runs
Mike Trout – LAA 40
JD Martinez – DET 35
Jose Bautista – TOR 35
Albert Pujols – LAA 34
Nelson Cruz – BAL / SEA 33
Chris Carter – HOU 33

It has been interesting watching Mike Trout the last few seasons.  He has gone from being the guy who can do everything to more of a pure power hitter.  He seems to be content sacrificing some points off his batting average to hit for more power.  It has had great results.  As for his teammate, it is amazing how good Pujols is again now that he is healthy.  It will be interesting to see if the Angels can actually make a playoff run with Trout and Pujols being their only sources of offense.  You expect to see guys like Bautista and Cruz (who has not been slowed down by Safeco Field) on this list.  JD Martinez is not the Tiger you expect to see, but his unlikely success last season has now turned into being a future star.  As for Chris Carter, he belongs on a list with guys like Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds as true power guys who either hit the long ball or strike out.

NL Home Runs
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA 43
Bryce Harper – WAS 37
Nolan Arenado – COL 36
Todd Frazier – CIN 35
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD 31

Bryce Harper has been the one that has gotten all the attention, and rightfully so, but Giancarlo Stanton is currently on the DL for the second time in this time period and still managed to hit 43 home runs in just 125 games.  At that pace, he would hit 56 home runs if he were to actually get in 162 games.  I just hope he is able to stay healthy long enough before his body starts to break down.  How are the Rockies not better?  They have Tulo, CarGo, and now it looks like Arenado might be the best hitter of them all.  Todd Frazier is a great hitter stuck on a bad team, and Adrian Gonzalez is the left-handed version of Miguel Cabrera.  He just makes it look too easy.

AL RBI
Jose Bautista – TOR 109
Albert Pujols – LAA 97
Yoenis Cespedes – OAK / BOS / DET 95
Mike Trout – LAA 93
Josh Donaldson – OAK / TOR 93

One of the craziest trends I noticed going through this is how many elite players have switched teams in the last year.  Cespedes is on his third team in the last 12 months, and he just keeps hitting.  Again, another elite Tiger hitter at the top of their game.  How are they not the best team in baseball?  When will teams just stop pitching to Pujols and Trout?  An offense that is more than just two hitters is the Blue Jays.  Joey Bats and Donaldson are on this list, but they are dangerous top to bottom.  They are a starting pitcher away from being the favorite in the AL East.

NL RBI
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD 111
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA 109
Nolan Arenado – COL 101
Buster Posey – SF 101
Matt Kemp – LAD / SD 101

Another trend I noticed going through these stats is that the NL seems to have more elite hitters right now than the AL.  That is a complete change from what we are used to.  Only one AL hitter would have made this NL list of RBI leaders.  We have seen all these names already except for Matt Kemp.  He definitely seems to be healthy, and although the power numbers might be down, he still knows how to drive in runs.

AL OPS
Miguel Cabrera – DET .964
Mike Trout – LAA .932
Jose Bautista – TOR .905
Jose Abreu – CWS .870
Manny Machado – BAL .868


Prince Fielder – TEX .916
Alex Rodriguez – NYY .892
Adam Lind – TOR / MIL .873

What is thought to be one of the best indicators of a great hitter, OPS combines on base percentage and slugging.  Prince Fielder and A-Rod don't have enough at bats to qualify, and Adam Lind (a surprising name to see) switched leagues.  How about A-Rod though!  He needed to be great for the Yankees to contend.  He is, and they are.  The top three you expect to see there.  Manny Machado has gotten back to full health and has been showing it in his hitting.  Once again, Jose Abreu!!!  How did this guy miss the All Star Game?!?

NL OPS
Bryce Harper – WAS 1.008
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA .965
Anthony Rizzo – CHC .939
Buster Posey – SF .924
Nolan Arenado – COL .911


Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ 1.038

It is a shame Goldschmidt got hurt last season because he has had an insane start to this year.  Bryce Harper shows once again just how good he has been, and that the end of last season was the start of this breakout.  In last year's wraparound stats, Trout was the only player with an OPS over 1.000.  This year, it is Harper.  Now you know why they are the new faces of baseball.  Again, you see names like Stanton, Posey, and Arenado (seriously, we need to start talking more about Arenado!!!).  It is easy to forget about Anthony Rizzo with all the young talent coming up through the Cubs' system.  However, he is the anchor that will make that team competitive for years to come.

AL Wins
Carlos Carrasco – CLE 16
Collin McHugh – HOU 16
Jeremy Guthrie – KC 15
Felix Hernandez – SEA 15
David Price – TB / DET 15


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 17

Many of these pitching lists have been thrown off by Scherzer switching leagues.  These win totals are not very impressive.  None of these players would have made last year's wraparound leaderboard.  With the constant emphasis on pitch counts and bullpen matchups, starting pitchers continue to get pulled early before the game is decided.  This is why there will probably never be another 300 game winner.  Of the names on this list, you expect to see Felix and Price, but the rest are complete surprises.  Carrasco, McHugh, and Guthrie are not even the best starters on their own teams, but apparently they have the top win totals.  This just shows why so many say the win is an outdated stat.

NL Wins
Madison Bumgarner – SF 17
Gerrit Cole – PIT 17
Bartolo Colon – NYM 16
Jonny Cueto – CIN 16
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 16
Jordan Zimmerman – WAS 16


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 17

This list looks a little more standard.  I thought for sure Bumgarner would end up injured by the All Star Break this season after throwing over 50 innings in the postseason last year, but he instead continues to show that he is a pitcher built for a different era.  I feel slightly justified to see Gerrit Cole on this list as I predicted his breakout (just a year too early).  Bartolo Colon has reached the "ageless" stage of his career, but keeps being dominant.  He will soon be out of a job though with all the young aces the Mets have (Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz).  It is a crime Jonny Cueto missed the All Star Game.  He is one of the best pitchers in the league, and the game was in Cincy.  I don't think he will be in Cincy much longer though.  Kershaw has not been as good as he was last year so far, but that's understandable considering just how good he was.  Lastly, it is interesting to consider that the Nationals, in signing Max Scherzer, basically picked him over the home grown Jordan Zimmerman over the foreseeable future.  Zimmerman is going to get a huge payday this offseason.  The question is from where.

AL ERA (150 IP Min.)
Dallas Keuchel – HOU 2.35
Felix Hernandez – SEA 2.54
Chris Sale – CWS 2.54
Hector Santiago – LAA 2.57
Sonny Gray – OAK 2.65
Corey Kluber – CLE 2.65


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 2.43
The emergence of Dallas Keuchel has allowed for the Astros to emerge the way they have so far this season.  It will be interesting if he can continue this performance moving forward.  Felix continues to be the King, if only the offense would match his dominance.  Chris Sale is easily the most forgotten pitcher in the league.  Maybe it is a White Sox thing.  First Abreu, now Sale?  They need to get better so everyone can know how good they are.  Santiago and Gray have shown that they deserve to be in the conversation of the best young pitchers in baseball.  Kluber has been destroyed this year by a lack of run support, but his ERA shows he has still been a quality pitcher even if other stats are not there.  Still shouldn't have won the Cy Young though...

AL ERA Overall
Wade Davis – KC 0.63
Andrew Miller – BOS / BAL / NYY 1.63
Alex Cobb – TB 1.79
Greg Holland – KC 1.82
Zach Britton – BAL 1.95




Chasen Shreve – ATL / NYY 1.69
I mostly ignore the middle reliever when it comes to these stats, only looking at the save as a stat to qualify relievers.  Luckily, Greg Holland got hurt for a short time this year which allowed Wade Davis to get some saves and make the list with his ridiculous ERA.  He has given up 5 earned runs since the last All Star Break!!!  He is insane!  Why isn't he the closer?!?  Oh, because their closer is also on the list.  The Royals' bullpen is the main reason I hold to my preseason prediction that they win the World Series this year.  Andrew Miller has successfully moved from dominant setup man to dominant closer.  Zach Britton has some filthy stuff as he continues to anchor the O's bullpen.  Then there is Alex Cobb, who is a starter but is the latest to miss a season with Tommy John.

NL ERA (150 IP Min.)
Zack Greinke – LAD 1.91
Jacob deGrom – NYM 2.15
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 2.36
Lance Lynn – STL 2.57
Shelby Miller – STL / ATL 2.59
Jonny Cueto – CIN 2.59


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 2.43
Clayton Kershaw may not be having the year he had last year, but Greinke has taken his place as the ridiculously dominant pitcher for the Dodgers.  With his pedigree, you know he can keep up this pace too.  Again, he is another pitcher that will get a huge payday this offseason.  The question is from where.  Everyone wants to talk about Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard for the Mets, but Jacob deGrom has been ridiculously dominant, announcing his arrival at the All Star Game, striking out the side on only 10 pitches.  I am sure the Cardinals cheat.  Wainwright goes down with a season ending injury, so now Lance Lynn is pitching like a Cy Young candidate.  You could say the same about the Braves as they made Shelby Miller the ace of their staff.  Once again, there is Cueto.  He needs to get traded, especially considering how many contenders are looking for starting pitching.  Blue Jays? Royals? Yankees?  Red Sox?  Cubs?  Astros?

NL ERA Overall
Mark Melancon – PIT 1.37
AJ Ramos – MIA 1.47
Hector Rondon – CHC 1.49
Drew Storen – WAS 1.51
Kenley Jansen – LAD 1.68
Out of nowhere, Mark Melancon has worked his way up to being the most dominant closer in the National League.  He has had dominant stuff for awhile, but only recently has he been given the closer role full time so he can finally get the recognition he deserves.  AJ Ramos might be the best pitcher no one has ever heard of.  Drew Storen's story is pretty amazing, as he has worked his way back to being a dominant closer after a few years of mediocrity.

AL K's
Corey Kluber – CLE 281
Chris Sale – CWS 263
David Price – TB / DET 222
Chris Archer – TB 219
Carlos Carrasco – CLE 208


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 256
Corey Kluber has not been super dominant so far this year, but his ridiculous end to last season has him near or at the top of many of these lists.  It just shows how good he was down the stretch in 2014.  Sale and Price we have already talked about.  Carrasco pops up again surprisingly.  The name to watch on this list is Chris Archer, the latest pitcher to emerge from the Rays.  It will be fascinating to see how good he can get before the Rays trade him away.  Oh yeah, Max is there again too.

NL K's
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 273
Francisco Liriano – PIT 219
Cole Hamels – PHI 215
Jonny Cueto – CIN 214
Madison Bumgarner – SF 212


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 256
Kershaw's ERA might be elevated a little bit.  He may not have as many wins, but it doesn't mean he hasn't been dominant.  He has almost 60 strikeouts more than the next NL starter (not counting Max).  Liriano, combined with Gerrit Cole, could lead the Pirates on the deep run into the postseason they have been waiting for.  Cole Hamels joins Cueto on the list of aces available this trade deadline.  Then there is the MadBum, still doing his thing.  It might be hard to keep the Giants out of the playoffs this year...

AL Innings Pitched
Corey Kluber – CLE 237 1/3
David Price – TB / DET 225 2/3
Dallas Keuchel – HOU 222
Jeff Samardzija – OAK / CWS 222
Sonny Gray – OAK 217


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 226


This stat shows the overall workload of a pitcher and could predict a drop in production or injury down the stretch this year.  This was the case for pitchers like Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, and Wade Miley last season, all of which found themselves on this list last year.  Kluber is still young enough that the extra workload could end up with a disappointing second half (especially considering the frustration that comes from no run support).  The same could be said for Dallas Keuchel ad Sonny Gray.  Gray seems to be the only pitcher for the A's not to get hurt over the last few seasons.  Pitchers like Price and Scherzer have shown year after year that they are built for this workload.  However, it could also catch up with them soon as well.

NL Innings Pitched
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 225
Jonny Cueto – CIN 218 2/3
Cole Hamels – PHI 214
Madison Bumgarner – SF 209 1/3
Zack Greinke – LAD 207


Max Scherzer – DET / WAS 226
James Shields – KC / SD 213
This might be why Kershaw has been not as dominant recently.  He is tired.  That is a lot of innings.  Not everyone can pitch like Bumgarner.  Greinke seems to have shown that he is good enough to keep up his dominance with the heavy workload.  Hamels, Cueto, and Shields join Max as work horses that can carry any load.  Seriously, who is going to take a run at these guys?

AL Saves
Zach Britton – BAL 45
Huston Street – LAA 41
Greg Holland – KC 40
Glen Perkins – MIN 40
Fernando Rodney – SEA 37
Zach Britton takes the top spot for saves here, mainly because Holland spent a little time on the DL this season.  Huston Street continues to be one of the most consistent closers in the league.  Glen Perkins would be much more well known if his team was better.  Then there is Fernando Rodney, who finds himself on this list simply because the Mariners are in so many close games.  He has a 4.77 ERA over this time and was even removed from closer duties for about a month this season.

NL Saves
Mark Melancon – PIT 46
Trevor Rosenthal – STL 43
Craig Kimbrel – ATL / SD 41
Drew Storen – WAS 38
Santiago Casilla – SF 37
There is the name of Mark Melancon again, leading the Pirates' bullpen.  Rosenthal has been crazy good as the latest Cardinal flamethrower to take closer duties.  Kimbrel has not been as dominant as we are used to seeing since going to San Diego.  Storen and Casilla anchor strong bullpens on strong teams.

So let's see who has been the best overall  in the 2014-2015 Wraparound Season.

Bryce HarperGiancarlo StantonMiguel CabreraMike TroutBuster Posey
Hitters
First Name Last Name Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR 1B RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bryce Harper WAS 147 506 88 160 26 1 37 96 82 88 137 5 .316 .418 .591 1.008
Giancarlo Stanton MIA 125 465 75 125 22 1 43 59 109 72 160 9 .269 .367 .598 .965
Miguel Cabrera DET 146 545 87 183 34 1 26 122 88 78 113 2 .336 .419 .545 .964
Mike Trout LAA 155 581 118 167 31 5 40 91 93 74 174 15 .287 .368 .565 .932
Buster Posey SF 145 543 84 180 27 2 26 125 101 54 59 1 .331 .392 .532 .924
Max ScherzerClayton KershawZack GreinkeJohnny CuetoDallas Keuchel
Starting Pitchers
First Name Last Name Team W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB K AVG WHIP K/BB K/9
Max Scherzer DET / WAS 17 9 2.43 32 32 0 0 226 172 67 61 16 42 256 .202 0.95 6.1 10.2
Clayton Kershaw LAD 16 7 2.36 31 31 0 0 225 171 68 59 15 45 273 .202 0.96 6.1 10.9
Zack Greinke LAD 14 5 1.91 31 31 0 0 207 157 48 44 14 41 186 .202 0.96 4.5 8.1
Johnny Cueto CIN 16 9 2.59 31 31 0 0 218 2/3 161 68 63 21 52 214 .197 0.97 4.1 8.8
Dallas Keuchel HOU 14 8 2.35 31 31 0 0 222 182 63 58 12 54 173 .215 1.06 3.2 7.0
Mark MelanconZach BrittonGreg HollandTrevor RosenthalGlen Perkins
Closers
First Name Last Name Team W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB K AVG WHIP K/BB K/9
Mark Melancon PIT 3 4 1.37 72 0 46 48 72 1/3 52 12 11 2 13 65 .193 0.90 5.0 8.1
Zach Britton BAL 1 1 1.95 66 0 45 48 64 2/3 45 15 14 3 17 65 .188 0.96 3.8 9.0
Greg Holland KC 3 1 1.82 29 0 40 43 54 1/3 28 14 11 1 25 68 .147 0.98 2.7 11.3
Trevor Rosenthal STL 2 4 1.96 70 0 43 47 69 58 15 15 2 31 76 .219 1.29 2.5 9.9
Glen Perkins MIN 1 4 2.56 62 0 40 44 59 2/3 53 17 17 7 9 53 .228 1.04 5.9 8.0
Are you ready for more baseball now?  I know I am!  Here are the full stats compiled for this project.


Thursday, July 17, 2014

MLB Year in Review: ASG-to-ASG 2014

Growing up, I watched a lot of ESPN and SportsCenter.  It was one of the primary viewing choices of my childhood.  This made this mid-July week somewhat of a downer growing up since nothing happens in the sports world outside the MLB All Star Game.  SportsCenter is always looking for interesting topics for this lackluster sports week.  Nowadays, this doesn't change the SportsCenter programming at all since all they talk about now is the NFL and LeBron James all year anyways.  When I was a kid, believe it or not, SportsCenter still considered baseball as a relevant sport worth covering.  So while baseball was taking a break, they still worked to find baseball stories to talk about.  One of my favorite baseball pieces they did every year during the All Star Break was determine who had the best last 162 games.  They would calculate stats from the last All Star Break to the current All Star Break and compare them as full season stats.  Unfortunately, SportsCenter is too busy debating the first pick in next year's NFL draft to waste time on this fascinating premise.  So I have decided to compile all these stats on my own and determine who would has had the best last full season.

Here is the process I went through.  I went through the league leaders from Post All Star 2013 stats and the 2014 first half stats.  For the hitters, I compiled the top 50 leaders in both time frames in hits, doubles, home runs, RBI's, and runs.  This gave me 160 hitters I compiled stats for from the last year.  For the pitchers, I went through the same process with wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, and saves (only calculated the top 30 in saves).  I realize this left out the always-overlooked middle reliever, but oh well.  They are always overlooked anyways so one more time won't be too tragic.  This resulted in 151 pitchers to compare.  Let's look at some top lists.
AL Batting Average
Victor Martinez – DET .343
Robinson Cano – NYY / SEA .333
Adrian Beltre – TEX .327
Mike Trout – LAA .316
Jose Altuve – HOU .315


JD Martinez – HOU / DET .322
not enough AB's

It turns out the amazingly hot starts this year from Victor Martinez and Jose Altuve actually started last season.  This is also not the last time you will see Mike Trout's name.
NL Batting Average
Andrew McCutchen – PIT .330
Scooter Gennett – MIL .325
Troy Tulowitzki – COL .323
Freddie Freeman – ATL .311
Charlie Blackmon – COL .310


Michael Cuddyer – COL .327
Casey McGehee – MIA .319
not enough AB's

Much like Martinez and Altuve, Charlie Blackmon's hot start this year was foreshadowed by a strong finish last year.  Freddie Freeman is turning into one of the best all-around hitters in the league.  Also, Scooter Gennett has to be the best player nobody has heard of.
AL Home Runs
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR 37
Brandon Moss – OAK 35
Mike Trout – LAA 34
Nelson Cruz – TEX / BAL 33
Chris Davis – BAL 31
David Ortiz – BOS 31

What I noticed from this list is most of these players have been quite inconsistent.  Either they ended last year strong or started this year strong, with the exception of Trout.  By the way, Jose Abreu almost made this list without playing at all last season.
NL Home Runs
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA 35
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ 31
Troy Tulowitzki – COL 30
Anthony Rizzo – CHC 30
Andrew McCutchen – PIT 28
Justin Upton – ATL 28
Todd Frazier – CIN 28

There are a few players on this list that just don't get the credit they deserve.  Anthony Rizzo will be a centerpiece of the Cubs latest attempt to rebuild (which might actually work with his bat leading the way).  Also, Paul Goldschmidt is a beast.  I give him 2 more seasons before he gets traded out of Arizona so people actually recognize how good he is.
AL RBI
Miguel Cabrera – DET 117
Mike Trout – LAA 111
Brandon Moss – OAK 109
David Ortiz – BOS 102
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR 102

Here is the first appearance by Miguel Cabrera, which shows that he hasn't been at his Triple Crown level since pre-All Star 2013.  Also, looking at his numbers, how wasn't David Ortiz an All Star?  Also, as a Mariners fan I refuse to give Brandon Moss any credit.
NL RBI
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ 109
Jayson Werth – WAS 103
Adrian Gonzalez – LAD 101
Freddie Freeman – ATL 100
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA 98

There's Goldschmidt's name again.  I was surprised to see someone like Jayson Werth putting up these kind of numbers.  No one talks about him, but he has been one of the best run producers of the last year.
AL OPS (On-Base + Slugging)
Mike Trout – LAA 1.014
Victor Martinez – DET .956
Edwin Encarnacion – TOR .952
Miguel Cabrera – DET .929
Brandon Moss – OAK .911


Jose Abreu – CWS .968
JD Martinez – HOU / DET .942
not enough AB's

OPS has become one of the top stats for a hitter's overall production so this is a great one to look at.  No one quite appreciates just how good Jose Abreu has been this first half.  He is already one of the greatest hitters in the league after just half a season.  Here you can also see just how ridiculous Mike Trout is.  Once again, he is from another AL West rival so I hate giving credit, but Trout is impossible to ignore.  Also, over the last year Miguel Cabrera hasn't even been the best hitter on his team.
NL OPS
Andrew McCutchen – PIT .995
Troy Tulowitzki – COL .966
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ .950
Freddie Freeman – ATL .904
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA .904
This top five shouldn't be surprising.  If you ask anyone for the best top five hitters in the National League, these five names should be the first ones said ... unless you run into some of those ignorant idiots that try to say Yasiel Puig or Bryce Harper.
AL Wins
Max Scherzer – DET 19
Rick Porcello – DET 19
James Shields – KC 18
Jared Weaver – LAA 18
Mark Buehrle – TOR 17
How is Detroit not the best team in the AL?  They have two of the best hitters in the league and the only two 19-win pitchers in the league.  And neither of them are named Verlander.  James Shields doesn't get the respect he deserves either.
NL Wins
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 19
Adam Wainwright – STL 19
Zack Greinke – LAD 18
Jorge De La Rosa – COL 17
Hyun-Jin Ryu – LAD 17
After looking at these stats, it is hard to argue against the Dodgers having the best pitching staff in the league.  They have three of the top five in wins.  You expect Wainwright to be on this list, but De La Rosa?!?  Since when does a pitcher for the Rockies have quality stats?
AL ERA (150 IP Min.)
Hisashi Iwakuma – SEA 2.58
Jon Lester – BOS 2.62
Anibal Sanchez – DET 2.63
Chris Sale – CWS 2.71
Felix Hernandez – SEA 2.74
Even with his injury and recent struggles, Hisashi Iwakuma has the best ERA over the last year.  It's easy for him to not get the credit he deserves when King Felix had the best first half in the league this year.
AL ERA Overall
Koji Uehara – BOS 1.07
Greg Holland – KC 1.22
Casey Janssen – TOR 1.79
Zach Britton – BAL 1.82
Joe Smith – LAA 2.07
The numbers and names at the top are to be expected.  The last two names on the list might be surprising though.
NL ERA (150IP Min.)
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 1.68
Johnny Cueto – CIN 2.02
Andrew Cashner – SD 2.25
Zack Greinke – LAD 2.34
Tanner Roark – WAS 2.53
Kershaw, are you kidding me?!?  If he goes on a couple more scoreless runs, he might challenge that Bob Gibson record of a 1.12 ERA this year.  Also, stop talking about Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister.  Tanner Roark is the Nat's fifth starter and the best one they have had over the last year.
NL ERA Overall
Huston Street – SD 1.06
Craig Kimbrel – ATL 1.43
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 1.68
Jose Fernandez – MIA 1.81
Johnny Cueto – CIN 2.02
The most underrated player in the league is by far Huston Street.  He is the best closer in the league, and he doesn't even make the All Star Team.  His ERA is even lower than Koji's.  I find this whole list interesting as only two closers made the list.  The rest are the top starters including Jose Fernandez who would be challenging Kershaw in every stat category if he hadn't gotten hurt.
AL K's
Yu Darvish – TEX 262
David Price – TB 248
Max Scherzer – DET 234
Felix Hernandez – SEA 230
Jon Lester – BOS 208
This is another top five that is exactly who you would expect it to be.  No surprises here.
NL K's
Stephen Strasburg – WAS 231
Clayton Kershaw – LAD 219
Tyson Ross – SD 211
Zack Greinke – LAD 207
AJ Burnett – PIT / PHI 207
You might be surprised to see the old man, AJ Burnett, on here, of whom I heard recently from an analyst is the most overpaid player in baseball history.  At least he strikes guys out.  The other noteworthy thing here is Tyson Ross.  This is the second Padres starter to appear on one of these lists which shows that they are working their way in the right direction.  They just need some hitting.  Some familiar, Seattle?
AL Innings Pitched
David Price – TB 254 1/3
James Shields – KC 224 2/3
Justin Verlander – DET 221 1/3
RA Dickey – TOR 221
Jon Lester – BOS 216 2/3
I find this an interesting list because it shows who might be due for a disappointing second half simply for being overworked.  David Price has thrown 30 more innings than everyone else in the league over the last year.  Buyer beware for those looking to trade for him.
NL Innings Pitched
Adam Wainwright – STL 233
AJ Burnett – PIT / PHI 222 2/3
Wade Miley – ARZ 213
Zack Greinke – LAD 211 1/3
Kyle Lohse – MIL 210 1/3
Here are some great innings eaters in Wainwright, Greinke, and Lohse.  Again, I don't see how people hate on AJ Burnett.  I'm also impressed with Wade Miley as he has needed to step up and the ace after Corbin went down in Spring Training.
AL Saves
Greg Holland – KC 50
Fernando Rodney – TB / SEA 42
Glen Perkins – MIN 37
Joe Nathan – TEX / DET 32
Koji Uehara – BOS 31
Few would argue that Holland has the most dominant stuff in the AL at closer.  Looking at these numbers, it was totally justified that Glen Perkins closed out the All Star Game.  Also, for all his struggles, Joe Nathan has still racked up a respectable amount of saves.  (Honorable Mention - Addison Reed has 37 saves over this time, but has played for both leagues.)
NL Saves
Craig Kimbrel – ATL 53
Kenley Jansen – LAD 46
Huston Street – SD 42
Rafael Soriano – WAS 40
Sergio Romo – SF 39
Craig Kimbrel might be the most automatic three outs in league history.  Once again, look at the number of saves for Huston Street for a team that never reaches the .500 mark.

Looking at these stats, here are the top 5 hitters, starters, and closers ASG-to-ASG.
Mike TroutAndrew McCutchenTroy TulowitzkiVíctor MartínezPaul Goldschmidt
Hitters


Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR 1B RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Mike Trout LAA 155 564 109 178 36 6 34 102 111 116 161 22 .316 .432 .582 1.014
Andrew McCutchen PIT 160 594 98 196 40 9 28 119 96 99 120 22 .330 .426 .569 .995
Troy Tulowitzki COL 151 524 102 169 29 1 30 109 82 80 99 2 .323 .412 .553 .966
Victor Martinez DET 146 554 74 190 36 0 27 127 88 55 41 2 .343 .402 .554 .956
Paul Goldschmidt ARZ 161 607 109 182 49 4 31 98 109 105 157 14 .300 .403 .547 .950
Clayton KershawAdam WainwrightMax ScherzerJon LesterFélix Hernández
Starters


Team W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB K AVG WHIP K/BB K/9
Clayton Kershaw LAD 19 5 1.68 27 27 0 0 187 134 38 35 9 30 219 .193 0.88 7.3 10.5
Adam Wainwright STL 19 8 2.59 33 33 0 0 233 189 68 67 13 47 204 .213 1.01 4.3 7.9
Max Scherzer DET 19 5 2.99 32 32 0 0 211 169 73 70 18 60 234 .211 1.09 3.9 10.0
Jon Lester BOS 16 9 2.62 32 32 0 0 216 2/3 200 78 63 12 51 208 .235 1.16 4.1 8.6
Felix Hernandez SEA 13 8 2.74 31 31 0 0 210 164 72 64 9 45 230 .207 1.00 5.1 9.9
Craig KimbrelGreg HollandHuston StreetKoji UeharaKenley Jansen
Closers


Team W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB K AVG WHIP K/BB K/9
Craig Kimbrel ATL 2 2 1.43 71 0 53 58 69 1/3 34 14 11 2 23 106 .140 0.82 4.6 13.8
Greg Holland KC 1 2 1.22 68 0 50 52 66 2/3 43 9 9 4 17 96 .177 0.90 5.6 13.0
Huston Street SD 3 1 1.06 60 0 42 44 59 1/3 32 7 7 5 13 62 .152 0.76 4.8 9.4
Koji Uehara BOS 7 3 1.07 71 0 31 33 75 2/3 36 9 9 6 7 98 .137 0.57 14.0 11.7
Kenley Jansen LAD 2 3 2.48 72 0 46 50 69 48 19 19 4 22 108 .188 1.01 4.9 14.1



To check out all the stats I compiled, click the link below.