2023 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

 #7

The St. Louis Cardinals had two of the top three finishers in NL MVP in 2022, but couldn't get out of the Wild Card Round.  Will 2023 see them make a deeper playoff run?

2022 Predictions

#16 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Nolan Arenado

MIP - Steven Matz

PTW - Matthew Liberatore

2022 Results

#10 - 93-69, 1st in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Nolan Arenado

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Ryan Helsley

It was hard to call the 2022 regular season anything but a success for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Paul Goldschmidt won the MVP, Nolan Arenado finished 3rd in the MVP voting.  Cardinal legends Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina were sent out with style, with Pujols entering the 700 home run club.  They won the division pretty handily and entered the playoffs as a possible title contender.  Then they run into the buzzsaw that was the Phillies.  Two home wild card games, and it was all over.  It was an anticlimactic ending to a season to remember.

Additions / Subtractions

Off goes Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina into retirement and eventually Cooperstown.  Those are the biggest departures, at least by name from the roster.  Mid-season acquisition Jose Quintana also moved on to the Mets.  The biggest question facing the Cardinals entering the offseason was how to replace Yadier behind the plate.  Enter Willson Contreras on a free agent deal from the Cubs.  Even with that big signing, there really was very little change to the roster this offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a chance to be an all-timer.  He has won the Gold Glove ever year he has been in the league, also winning the Platinum Glove 6 times.  He is also a 5 time Silver Slugger winner and a 7 time All Star.  He is coming off an 8 WAR season and a third place finish in MVP, his 6th time finishing the top 8.  There's just one problem: for as great as Arenado is, he has never been able to perform at the top of his game on the biggest stage.  In 8 postseason games over his career, he is batting just .152 with 1 home run.  He has struck out 9 times in 33 at bats.  This includes a 1-for-8 performance with 2 strikeouts in last year's Wild Card Series.  It is reaching a point that if Arenado wants to be remembered as one of the best to ever do it, he has to start showing he can be great when the lights are brightest.  He showed that he may be ready for the big stage in the WBC this year, hitting .385 over 7 games.  Now, can he do it in the playoffs?

Most Important Pitcher

Jack Flaherty

If the Cardinals had a weakness last season, it was their starting rotation.  It was such an issue that they made two Trade Deadline deals for starters, one even trading their starting centerfielder for a starter.  Adam Wainwright is still hanging around, but he is nowhere near the level he was in his prime.  They lack a true ace ... that is unless Jack Flaherty is healthy.  Flaherty burst on the scene in 2018 as a rookie, finishing 5th in the Rookie of the Year vote.  Then in 2019, he became a star, finishing 4th in Cy Young, 13th in MVP, a 152 ERA+, and leading the league in WHIP.  The 2020 season was weird for so many, and he had a bad year.  Then he got hurt in 2021.  Battling injuries for most of the last 2 seasons, he has only thrown 114 innings between the 2021 and 2022.  Now it appears he might be healthy, but how much wear and tear have the injuries taken on his body.  He is entering his age 27 season which is also his contract year.  He needs a big season, and the Cardinals need him to have a big season too.

Prospect to Watch

Jordan Walker

The Cardinals always seem to have a deep farm system, and this year is no different, ranking 9th according to MLB.com and 3rd according to Bleacher Report.  The star of their system is the 4th best prospect in all of baseball, Jordan Walker.  Drafted out of high school in the 2020 draft, the 20 year old has done nothing but hit since reaching the minors.  This production includes Spring Training this season, where he opened enough eyes to make the Opening Day roster.  A natural third baseman, Walker is transitioning to the outfield due to Arenado having the hot corner locked down for the foreseeable future.  This kid has all the makings of being a special player, as if the Cardinals need another one.

2023 Prediction

1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

Possibly the easiest prediction to make entering this season is that the Cardinals would be winning the NL Central.  No one in their division can touch their talent level.  The problem facing the Cardinals is the top of the National League is filled with these superteams that appear to be much more complete than the Cardinals.  I see them struggling to compete with the rest of the NL elites, but they will be right there in the NL final four.

Fearless Prediction

Jack Flaherty wins NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Call it wishful thinking, but I'm a fan of Jack Flaherty and really want to see him be healthy and show that he is back to his elite form.  If he is just a fraction of what he was in 2019, he should easily be the favorite for this award and help lead the Cardinals to the playoffs.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

 #1

The St. Louis Cardinals pulled off a blockbuster trade to man the hot corner for the foreseeable future.  Is that enough to get this back to elite?

2020 Predictions

#11 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Paul Goldschmidt

MIP - Miles Mikolas

PTW - Dylan Carlson

2020 Results

#12 - 30-28, 2nd in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

The Cardinals had a typical Cardinals season.  They were quiet enough that many people forgot about them, but they were still good enough to make the postseason and almost spoil the magical Padres in the Wild Card Round.  They were led in 2020 by Paul Goldschmidt, possibly the quietest of all of baseball's superstars, which makes him the perfect star for St. Louis.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals really only made one move over the offseason, but it was a big one.  They pulled off the blockbuster trade that sent them third baseman Nolan Arenado from Colorado.  Outside of letting second baseman Kolten Wong sign with Milwaukee and trading outfielder Dexter Fowler to the Angels, the Cardinals didn't do much else other than get healthy.

Most Important Hitter

Paul DeJong

Entering his 5th season as the starting shortstop in St. Louis, Paul DeJong got out to a hot start to his career, finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year in 2017 and making his first All Star Team in 2019.  However, 2020 proved to be a struggle for DeJong.  If the Cardinals are going to have a dangerous and deep lineup, they need DeJong to bounce back and show he can get back to that All Star level.

Most Important Pitcher

Jack Flaherty

In 2020, Adam Wainwright emerged as the go to ace of the Cardinals' staff.  With Wainwright entering his age 39 season, he can't really be counted on to be that good again in 2021.  That means it is time for Jack Flaherty to emerge as the consistent dominant ace the Cardinals need.  He was outstanding in 2019, finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young voting, but 2020 was a struggle.  With some of the injuries the Cardinals are facing in their rotation to start the season, the 25 year old Flaherty needs to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, which is not a stretch considering his how good he has shown he can be.

Prospect to Watch

Dylan Carlson

When the Cardinals traded Dexter Fowler, they were basically announcing that the outfield would be super young and athletic.  Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill can be expected to be out there every day, but the best of the group might be Dylan Carlson.  Ranked the 14th best prospect in baseball, Carlson played in 35 games in 2020 with little success, but the Cardinals believe in him, and his tools show that he can be a star.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL Central, win World Series

Here are my World Series champions!  It is definitely an outside-the-box pick, but with the way the Cardinals always find a way to be better than anyone realized, and the add of Arenado, this team is going to surprise everyone.  Arenado and Goldschmidt are the perfect superstars to play in St. Louis, and they are going to become one of the best combos in any lineup in the league.  Every few years, the Cardinals emerge as one of the best teams in baseball, and they are due.  Also, can you imagine the storylines of a Tony La Russa vs. the Cardinals World Series?  And a World Series win would almost certainly send Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright off into retirement on top.  Perfect!

Fearless Prediction

Jack Flaherty wins the NL Cy Young Award.

Like I said, Jack Flaherty has the capability to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He is going to be the surprising star everybody knows from this team by the end of the season.  A Cy Young and a World Series ... sounds like a successful season to me.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies made some big news this offseason, but it wasn't for something that will help them win in 2021.  Are the Rockies going to be competitive this season, or is the start of a rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Brendan Rodgers

FP - Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

2020 Results

#23 - 26-34, 4th in NL West

The downward spiral of the Colorado Rockies started as soon as rumors surfaced that Nolan Arenado was available via trade just one season after signing a megadeal.  The 2020 season for the Rockies wasn't horrible, but it wasn't good either.  The Rockies seemed to be stuck waiting to see what would happen with Arenado.  I honestly can't believe that my Fearless Prediction actually came true.

Additions / Subtractions

This section starts and ends with Nolan Arenado.  Take your pick on which was the bigger trade this offseason between Arenado to the Cardinals and Francisco Lindor to the Mets.  (I would argue that the Arenado trade was bigger because he is under contract past 2021.)  With that said, Arenado isn't the only missing player from last year's roster.  Starting catcher Tony Wolters signed elsewhere, first baseman Daniel Murphy retired, centerfielder Kevin Pillar signed elsewhere, outfielder David Dahl signed elsewhere, DH Matt Kemp is gone, Ian Desmond opted out for a second straight season ... and that's just the lineup!  All of these subtractions were replaced with internal solutions.  No one significant was added to the lineup this offseason.  The pitching staff is almost the same except for young pitcher Austin Gomber joining the rotation from the Arenado trade.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Just like the 2020 season was completely overshadowed by what would happen with Nolan Arenado, the 2021 season will be completely overshadowed by what will happen with Trevor Story.  He is easily the best player on the roster now, but it is his last season before free agency.  If the Rockies trade him or let him walk after the season, then we know the Rockies are entering a full rebuild.  If they find a way to re-sign him (which is unlikely after seeing the Arenado saga play out after his big deal), it shows that the Rockies are going to be bouncing back sooner rather than later.  So not just for 2021, but the next 10 years of this franchise revolve around what happens with this player this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Gray

This Rockies' rotation has some decent arms that are learning how to pitch in Colorado.  The man that was supposed to be the ace of this staff during this run was supposed to be Jon Gray.  However, he has been passed up by other young hurlers on his club like German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela.  If Gray can find a way to capture some of the promise his talent showed early on in his career, then this pitching staff could carry this team in a way it has never done before.  Or be traded.  This could happen too.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Vilade

What makes matters worse for the Rockies is on top of having an aging roster that is trading away its stars to save money, their farm system is not very good.  At the end of last season, MLB.com ranked the Rockies as having the 28th best farm system in all of baseball with only one top 100 prospect.  Although Zac Veen has the potential to be a stud, he is a 19 year old outfielder drafted straight out of high school that is at least 3 years away from making a big league impact.  They have a few prospects that could break into the big club this season, with Ryan Vilade as the most intriguing.  The Rockies' fourth ranked prospect, Vilade can play third or the corner outfield spots, places where there could be potential holes to fill with the departure of Arenado and the opt out of Desmond making those spots pretty thin.  He has the potential to be an impact bat in the center of that lineup moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL West

This season is going to be ugly for the Rockies.  Arenado was the heart and soul of that roster.  Now he's gone, and their next best player is most likely counting down the days he can leave too.  Their pitching staff might be able to keep them in games, but it is most likely going to be a lost season for the Rockies.

Fearless Prediction

Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

The way the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado really tarnished their reputation in how they handle their stars.  Whether it is the truth or not, the way it looks is they signed Arenado to a megadeal they were never going to fulfill because they were just going to trade him after making the commitment.  With that in mind, there is no way Trevor Story signs long term in Colorado.  If he isn't going to sign past this season, and the season is going to be as unsuccessful as it appears to be, they should trade him while they can still get something for him.  The entire season will be defined by what they will do with Story, just like 2020 was defined by the Arenado drama.  Trade him now and move on.  The sooner he is gone, the sooner the franchise can start over and rebuild.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#24

The Colorado Rockies flipped their record in 2019, following up two straight trips to the playoffs with a disappointing 90 loss season.  Will 2020 bring them back to playoff form or will they continue to spiral into obscurity?

2019 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH: David Dahl

MIP: Kyle Freeland

PTW: Brendan Rodgers

FP: Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

2019 Results

#22 - 71-91, 4th in NL West

Boy, did I have the Rockies 2019 season wrong!  I saw the Rockies getting back to the playoffs for a third season in a row.  Instead, the season got away from them and fell apart.  David Dahl only played in 100 games, but the team offense was fine with five players topping 20 home runs (even though only 3 of them ended up with an OPS+ over 100 ... Mile High bias...).  The pitching is really what fell flat.  Jon Gray had a standout season, but my Most Important Pitcher Kyle Freeland was much more the norm, finishing with a 6.73 ERA in just over 100 innings, earning a 77 ERA+.  2019 was supposed to be the year Brendan Rodgers broke out as well, but instead he only played in 25 disappointing games at the big league level before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.  As for Arenado's shot at an MVP, the team needed to be better.  With that said, he finished 6th in the voting, earned his 5th straight All Star appearance, his 7th straight Gold Glove (which is how many years he has been in the league), and his 3rd straight Platinum Glove, designating him as the best defender in the National League regardless of position.  Instead of discussions of how valuable he is to the Rockies, the talk instead went to whether or not he and his newly signed monstrous contract should be traded.

Additions / Subtractions

An interesting aspect of the Rockies' current situation is after a disappointing 90 loss season, they made zero significant roster changes.  Outside of injured players returning, the Rockies will run the same lineup out on Opening Day that they had to end 2019.  The most significant storyline in the offseason was the fact that Nolan Arenado is still a Rockie.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

If the Rockies are going to compete in 2020, it is going to be on the back of their offense.  Although Arenado may be their best player, the emerging superstar on the team is Trevor Story.  After a breakout season in 2016 and a setback year in 2017, Story has had two straight years where he has made the All Star Team and won the NL shortstop Silver Slugger.  With the chances Nolan Arenado sticks around Colorado much longer definitely up in the air, Story will need to be the face of the franchise through a possible full rebuild ... or be traded himself.

Most Important Pitcher

German Marquez

Jon Gray was the best pitcher on the Rockies staff last season, but German Marquez was definitely second best.  With that said, there was definitely some regression from his previous two seasons.  He is only entering his age 25 season, which means some hiccups like 2019 are bound to happen.  If the Rockies are going to be any good in 2020, the pitching has to be much better, and that starts with Marquez emerging as a possible ace of the staff to go along with Gray.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The Rockies have a lackluster farm system (which is why trading Arenado is on the table) only boasting one player in baseball's Top 100 prospects.  That one player is Brendan Rodgers.  I don't like highlighting the same prospect two years in a row, but I really have no choice with him being by far their best prospect and the only prospect in their top 6 that has a chance of playing in the big leagues this season.  Rodgers is a middle infielder that can really hit.  He was taken 3rd overall in the 2015 draft behind fellow shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman.  Rodgers has taken longer to work his way to the big leagues because he was a high school standout instead of a proven college player.  The biggest issue facing Rodgers and the possible impact he could have in 2020 is the fact that there is nowhere for him to play.  Ryan McMahon emerged in 2019 as a legitimate everyday player at second base, and unless there is an injury (or trade), the left side of the infield is pretty well set for awhile.  So we will see how Rodgers gets in the lineup, but his talent deserves to play.

2020 Prediction

4th in NL West

I am not optimistic about the Rockies' chances in 2020.  Their current roster makeup doesn't seem to be working anymore, they did nothing to address it in the offseason, and they have very little coming up to help them from their farm system.  Combine that with the other three teams in their division predicted above them gaining momentum right now, and it is going to be a disappointing season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

It is the only real storyline in Colorado right now.  Will Nolan Arenado remain in Colorado?  He is one of the best players in baseball right now, and he seems to be available for the right price.  There already appeared to be some drama between Arenado and the front office of the Rockies for even considering the possibility this offseason.  Now it seems inevitable at some point.  It also looks like it might be the right move to make.  The Rockies are stuck right now.  They had their peak, and now they have a stagnant roster of established stars that can't seem to win together.  They need to start to build for their next competitive window instead of holding on to this one.  Trading Arenado would bring back a prospect package that would give an instant jump start to their lackluster farm system.  It would also give an opportunity on the infield for Brendan Rodgers to make his mark.  The only thing that can save Arenado in Colorado is a playoff run in 2020.  I don't see that happening, so instead his days in Denver are numbered.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#7

The Colorado Rockies made a solid run into the postseason in 2018.  Will that be followed up by another serious run at a title in 2019?

2018 Predictions

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLCS

2018 Results

91-72, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLDS

The Rockies finally showed the promise their roster had and pushed through into the playoffs for the first time since 2009.  It took a crazy route of losing a one game playoff with the Dodgers for the division title, then beating the Cubs in the Wild Card Game.  All this came to nothing as they were swept by the Brewers in the divisional round.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rockies worked to supplement their roster to try and make it a little further this time around.  There was one key addition, one key subtraction, and one key extension.  First, they brought in Daniel Murphy to help give some extra pop and stability to the middle of the order.  Unfortunately, their bullpen was weakened some by Adam Ottavino signing elsewhere.  Last, their giant extension given to Nolan Arenado ensured their best player would be in Denver for a long time.

Most Important Hitter

David Dahl

The Rockies let a couple veteran outfielders in Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez leave in free agency as well.  This is because they are relying on a full season from David Dahl.  Dahl is entering his age 25 season and is a potential star ready to break out if he can stay on the field.  That has turned out to be a big if though.  Dahl played 63 games in 2016 before injuries forced him to miss the entire 2017 season.  Last year, he only played 77 games with the big club.  When healthy, he has been a solid hitter.  A full season will allow him to grow and progress even more.  The Rockies will need that production from him, which means they will need a full season from him.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Freeland

In 2018, Kyle Freeland emerged as something the Rockies have been looking for forever: an ace.  In only his second full season, Freeland seemed to overcome the curse of Coors Field by posting a 2.85 ERA over 202 innings.  He had an ERA+ of 164 which shows just how elite he was.  He was recognized for this great season by finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Now the Rockies need him to do it again.  They need Freeland to continue to become one of the elite starting pitchers in the game.  If he can, he will stabilize a rotation that is always needing stability in the high elevation.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The 3rd overall pick in the 2015 Draft, Brendan Rodgers is a 22 year old infielder that is ready to burst onto the scene.  Rockies fans have been aware of Rodgers ever since he was drafted as a can't-miss prospect.  Now, with DJ LeMahieu moving on, there is a spot for him at second base that he will most likely take sometime beofre the All Star Break.  Once he does, watch out!

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

I have the Rockies getting the same distance they got last year.  Their offense can be something special.  It is, as always in the Mile High City, if the pitching can keep up.  They finally have some young arms that can perform at the high altitudes, but the bullpen lost some luster.  The National League is really deep, and the Rockies look to be just into the second tier of the elite.  They will consistently be a playoff team, but they need just a little more to really be a threat in the NL.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

Arenado has come very close to this the last few years.  He has finished in the top 8 each of the last four years in MVP voting, moving up the list each year (8th in '15, 5th in '16, 4th in '17, 3rd in '18).  With his new extension in hand, and another playoff run in sight, look for him to finally get the award his talent deserves.

2017-2018 MLB Wraparound Season

I am a sports junkie (probably even more so than a movie junkie).  I love watching sports, playing sports, and pretty much anything to do with sports.  My favorite might be stats.  I am a numbers guy, and I find all the stats fascinating.  This is one of the many reasons baseball season is possibly my favorite season as it is more stats-driven than any other sport.  The MLB All Star Break is one of my favorite parts of the summer.  It not only allows for baseball to take the sole sports spotlight for one of the only times in the year, but it also gives me the chance to do my yearly baseball stats deep dive.

Who have been the best baseball players over the last 12 months?  I call this the wraparound season.  I tabulate the stats from after the All Star Break last year and combine them with the stats from the first half of this season.  This helps see who might be key contributors in the upcoming playoff push.  It also might show who has been overworked and might fall off production down the stretch run.  I gathered stats for all hitters in the top 50 in hits, doubles, home runs, RBI's, and runs from last year's second half and this year's first half.  I did the same with pitchers, with the top 50 in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, and the top 30 in saves.  Before we look at the 2017-2018 Wraparound Season, let's look back at who stood out in the 2016-2017 Wraparound Season.

Underrated Hitters

1.  Jose Ramirez - CLE

2.  Ender Inciarte - ATL

3.  Jedd Gyorko - STL

4.  Charlie Blackmon - COL

5.  Jose Abreu - CWS

Underrated Pitchers

1.  Ivan Nova - PIT

2.  Dan Straily - CIN / MIA

3.  Sean Manaea - OAK

4.  Ervin Santana - MIN

5.  Robbie Ray - ARZ

AL Wraparound MVP

1.  Jose Ramirez - CLE

2.  Jose Altuve - HOU

3.  Mike Trout - LAA

4.  Aaron Judge - NYY

5.  Nelson Cruz - SEA

NL Wraparound MVP

1.  Joey Votto - CIN

2.  Freddie Freeman - ATL

3.  Charlie Blackmon - COL

4.  Nolan Arenado - COL

5.  Daniel Murphy - WAS

AL Wraparound Cy Young

1.  Corey Kluber - CLE

2.  Chris Sale - BOS

3.  Justin Verlander - DET / HOU

4.  Chris Archer - TB

5.  Ervin Santana - MIN

NL Wraparound Cy Young

1.  Max Scherzer - WAS

2.  Clayton Kershaw - LAD

3.  Carlos Martinez - STL

4.  Kyle Hendricks - CHC

5.  Ivan Nova - PIT

Top Relievers

1.  Kenley Jansen - LAD

2.  Andrew Miller - NYY / CLE

3.  Craig Kimbrel - BOS

4.  Aroldis Chapman - NYY

5.  Wade Davis - KC / CHC

Of the 25 players to make the top lists last year, 13 made the lists this year.  Of the 10 players listed as underrated last year, two of them made a top list this year.

Batting Average

AL

Jose Altuve – HOU	.336
Mookie Betts – BOS	.309
Adrian Beltre – TEX	.306
Yuli Gurriel – HOU	.306
Manny Machado – BAL	.304
Avisail Garcia – CWS	.328
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	.319
Matt Duffy – TB	.317
Lorenzo Cain – KC / MIL	.310

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	.315
Charlie Blackmon – COL	.314
Jose Martinez – STL	.308
Scooter Gennett – CIN	.307
Joey Votto – CIN	.305
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	.319
Lorenzo Cain – KC / MIL	.310

First, the list under each top 5 are players that would be on the list if they qualified.  Two things can disqualify you for these lists.  First, you need to have over 400 at bats to be considered.  Hitters like Avisail Garcia and Matt Duffy don't have enough AB's.  Second, you have to have played the last 12 months in one league.  So J.D. Martinez and Lorenzo Cain will not qualify for any list.  Jose Altuve topped the AL list last year as well, which is just more proof he is the best pure hitter int he game today (especially looking at how much better he is than everyone else).  Beltre continues to be a top hitter in the twilight of his career.  Machado, although now a Dodger, finished his time as an Oriole in pretty strong style.

In the NL, there are a lot of Rockies and, surprisingly, Reds on this list.  Arenado and Blackmon are showing they should be considered some of the top hitters in the league.  Jose Martinez is a surprise, showing the Cardinals have a good young core to build around.  Votto topped this list last year, but it is good to see a guy like Gennett hitting as well as he is.  Overall, all of these averages are down from last year.

Home Runs

AL

Aaron Judge – NYY	47
Francisco Lindor – CLE	44
Nelson Cruz – SEA	44
Mike Trout – LAA	42
Edwin Encarnacion – CLE	42
Joey Gallo – TEX	42
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	60
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	56

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	43
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	37
Charlie Blackmon – COL	36
Kyle Schwarber – CHC	35
Trevor Story – COL	33
Eugenio Suarez – CIN	33
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	60
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	56

The most noticeable thing with these lists is the two best home run hitters of the last 12 months don't qualify because they spent time in both leagues.  J.D. Martinez followed up his crazy finish last year with the Diamondbacks with a great first half this year in Boston.  Giancarlo Stanton had an okay start in the Bronx, but he hit 33 second half home runs with the Marlins last year.  That alone puts him on the NL list.  Judge has shown no sophomore slump.  Lindor is not a name you consider a top home run guy, but he has shown some awesome power the last 12 months.  Names like Cruz, Encarnacion, and Gallo you expect to see.  Trout has been a beast as always.

Three of the six on this list are Rockies, showing they have possibly the best offense in the league.  Goldschmidt is still a premier hitter in the NL.  Schwarber has shown what he can do when he is healthy and in the lineup every day.  Suarez makes it three Reds that have made lists.  How are they so bad?  Oh yeah, they can't pitch (even though their manager was a pitching coach ... no wonder he got fired).

RBI

AL

Edwin Encarnacion – CLE	124
Khris Davis – OAK	114
Manny Machado – BAL	113
Eddie Rosario – MIN	112
Nicholas Castellanos – DET	111
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	152
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	129

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	128
Trevor Story – COL	115
Javy Baez – CHC	114
Anthony Rizzo – CHC	114
Scooter Gennett – CIN	113
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	152
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	129

Once again, Martinez and Stanton would be the class of both leagues (and by a decent margin).  There are some names you are not used to seeing on this list.  Encarnacion and Machado you expect to see, but Khris Davis has quietly been one of the most productive power hitters of the last few years in Oakland.  Rosario helped lead the Twins to their playoff berth last year.  I am surprised more people aren't talking about trading for Castellanos at the Trade Deadline.  Recently moving from third base to right field, he can play either position and is a very productive bat.

If you are keeping track, this makes a Wraparound Triple Crown for Nolan Arenado.  Also, once again, a teammate takes second.  Two Cubs are tied for third.  It might be a surprise one of them is Baez.  Also, once again there is a Red popping up.

OPS

AL

Mike Trout – LAA	1.022
Jose Ramirez – CLE	.980
Mookie Betts – BOS	.955
Aaron Judge – NYY	.938
Francisco Lindor – CLE	.924
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	1.073
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	.958

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	1.004
Charlie Blackmon – COL	.936
Eugenio Suarez – CIN	.921
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	.915
Joey Votto – CIN	.913
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	1.073
Max Muncy – LAD	1.012
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	.958
Jesus Aguilar – MIL	.918

As OPS is one of the stats that shows the true value of a hitter, it is not surprising when you see the list of names on the AL list (including Martinez and Stanton once again).  Trout, Ramirez (last year's Wraparound AL MVP), Betts, Judge, and Lindor are considered three of the top hitters playing right now, and this shows why.

Considering Arenado has a Triple Crown over this stretch, it is no surprise he tops the AL list in OPS.  Once again, a teammate is second.  Still, no one gives Charlie Blackmon enough credit for just how good he is.  Suarez and Votto show up again to remind us just how good Cincinnati could be.  Goldschmidt is expected to be on a list like this, and it is good to see he doesn't disappoint.  Muncy and Aguilar have had amazing first halves of 2018, but they don't have enough at bats to qualify for the full season stats.

Wins

AL

Corey Kluber – CLE	23
Luis Severino – NYY	23
Carlos Carrasco – CLE	19
Charlie Morton – HOU	19
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	19

NL

Jon Lester – CHC	20
Aaron Nola – PHI	18
Max Scherzer – WAS	18
Zach Godley – ARZ	16
Jon Gray – COL	16
Zack Greinke – ARZ	16

Most stat guys in baseball call the win a useless stat in today's game.  I wouldn't quite go that far.  If your team wins when you take the mound, there is value there.  Looking at the names on these lists, they are exactly who you would expect to see as the top pitchers in the league (especially the AL list).  Kluber and Severino hit a total that hasn't been hit in an actual season since 2011.  Carrasco shows the strength of the Indians' starting rotation just like Morton and Verlander show the same about the Astros.  This is an impressive list, especially considering Kluber, Carrasco, and Dylan Bundy topped last year's list with 18.

Lester is the only NL pitcher to hit the 20 win mark.  Scherzer and Greinke show they are still elite.  Nola, Gray, and Godley show they are young aces in the making.

ERA (150 IP minimum)

AL

Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	2.15
Luis Severino – NYY	2.30
Corey Kluber – CLE	2.32
Trevor Bauer – CLE	2.54
Chris Sale – BOS	2.59

NL

Jacob deGrom – NYM	2.40
Max Scherzer – WAS	2.70
Aaron Nola – PHI	2.78
Jake Arrieta – CHC / PHI	2.86
Kyle Hendricks – CHC	3.20
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	3.18

Two things strike me about these lists.  First, this shows pretty clearly that the AL has the best pitchers.  Only one of the NL pitchers would even crack the AL top 5.  Considering the AL also had the top stats when it came to hitting, and that AL lineups are harder to navigate with a DH instead of a pitcher, this is really impressive.  The second thing I noticed is how hard it was to find pitchers that pitched 150 innings.  With the emergence of super bullpens, this is getting harder and harder for starters to do.  Verlander has been insane, with Severino and Kluber showing their win totals aren't a fluke.  Bauer shows again that Cleveland's rotation is ridiculous.  Sale shows that he earned his All Star Game start.

Jacob deGrom has been a great pitcher on a bad team, being this year's best Met pitcher.  Scherzer, Arrieta and Hendricks show they are still among the league's best.  Once again, there is Aaron Nola popping up.  He has been awesome.

Overall ERA

AL

Lou Trivino – OAK	1.22
Craig Kimbrel – BOS	1.75
Aroldis Chapman – NYY	2.07
David Robertson – CWS / NYY	2.12
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	2.15
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	1.47
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	1.84

NL

Brandon Morrow – LAD / CHC	1.79
Trevor Rosenthal – STL	1.88
Kenley Jansen – LAD	2.10
Stephen Strasburg – WAS	2.32
Jacob deGrom – NYM	2.40
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	1.47
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	1.84

Tops on this list for the AL is a recent call-up for the A's that has gotten off to a great start.  Next you have top closers Kimbrel and Chapman.  Robertson was the closer for the White Sox and is now part of the crazy bullpen for the Yankees.  It is always impressive when a starter makes this list, and Verlander has done it.

Morrow made an easy transition from Dodgers setup man to Cubs closer.  Rosenthal hasn't actually pitched this year after having Tommy John surgery.  He will be an interesting free agent next offseason.  Jansen is expected to be near the top of this list every year.  Strasburg had an insane finish to last year, but injuries have kept him below the innings limit.  Again, deGrom deserves better.  Ineligible for either list are Doolittle and Treinan, who were actually traded for each other last year.

Strikeouts

AL

Chris Sale – BOS	318
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	293
Corey Kluber – CLE	274
Trevor Bauer – CLE	268
Luis Severino – NYY	250
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	279

NL

Max Scherzer – WAS	277
Jacob deGrom – NYM	258
Aaron Nola – PHI	234
Patrick Corbin – ARZ	232
Jon Gray – COL	213
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	279

Sale and Scherzer topped these lists last year, and topped them again this year.  Sale was able to reach that magical 300 strikeout total with Verlander coming very close.  Just like every NL hitting list needs at least two Rockies, each AL pitching list needs two Indians.  Severino rounds out the list, showing he is an emerging young ace for the Yanks.  Gerrit Cole has become the latest pitcher to show a career resurrection since joining the Astros.

After Mad Max, we see some familiar names.  Nola and deGrom keep popping up over and over.  Corbin shows the Diamondbacks have a strong rotation as well.  Gray, once he finds some consistency, will be a household name with the rest of these pitchers.

Innings Pitched

AL

Corey Kluber – CLE	244
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	238 2/3
Trevor Bauer – CLE	220
Chris Sale – BOS	215 2/3
Luis Severino – NYY	215
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	223 2/3

NL

Aaron Nola – PHI	216 2/3
Jacob deGrom – NYM	213 2/3
Clayton Richard – SD	211 1/3
Patrick Corbin – ARZ	210 2/3
Zack Greinke – ARZ	207 2/3
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	223 2/3

This is always an interesting list to me.  It shows which pitchers might be overworked and due for a slump or an injury in the second half of this season.  Of the five on this list last year, only two have returned to the list (Verlander, Sale).  Kluber is a machine (Klu-bot), but 244 innings is a lot, especially considering this doesn't include the last two playoff runs.  Verlander is always on this list, and seems to one immune to breaking down under a heavy workload.  Bauer is such a strange and unusual modern pitcher.  I don't see him breaking down either.  Sale is such a skinny guy with a strange delivery.  He could be Randy Johnson and never break down, or he could be due for some problems.  I am worried about Severino.  He is such a young player, and 215 innings is a lot (again, not counting playoffs last year).

Of the 6 players on last year's list, none have returned to the list.  Nola is a surprise at the top, showing again that he has been the Phillies' workhorse.  It might be deGrom's turn to have arm issues, as every one of the Mets aces has had those issues.  Richard has quietly been a steady pitcher for the Padres the last few seasons.  Then we have the top two Diamondbacks pitchers.  It makes sense for these totals to be so much less than the AL totals since they have to worry about hitting and pinch hitters.

Saves

AL

Edwin Diaz – SEA	57
Craig Kimbrel – BOS	42
Aroldis Chapman – NYY	40
Alex Colome – TB / SEA	34
Cody Allen – CLE	34
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	43
Fernando Rodney – MIA / ARZ / MIN	38
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	37

NL

Kenley Jansen – LAD	47
Brad Hand – SD	43
Wade Davis – CHC / COL	43
Felipe Vazquez – PIT	38
Corey Knebel – MIL	36
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	43
Fernando Rodney – MIA / ARZ / MIN	38
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	37

By far, the leader in saves the last 12 months has been Diaz, who almost set the record for most saves before the All Star Break.  This has been greatly helped by all the close games the Mariners have played.  Kimbrel and Chapman are thought to be the old standards you expect to see on this list every year.  Colome was a top closer before he was traded to Seattle to be Diaz's setup man.  Allen has been the back end of a great bullpen for quite some time.  Not eligible are the trade brother in Doolittle and Treinan as well as the Fernando Rodney Experience.

If you were to pick one closer you want on the mound in the 9th of a must-win game, I think Jansen might be the most popular pick.  The second best NL closer over the last 12 months, Brad Hand, is now the second best lefty specialist in the Indians' bullpen.  It feels like everyone always forgets how good Wade Davis is.  One of the few bright spots for the Pirates has been their closer Vazquez.  Knebel is the great closer at the end of a great bullpen in Milwaukee.

Underrated Hitters

Scooter Gennett – CIN

Eugenio Suarez – CIN

Whit Merrifield – KC

Nicholas Castellanos – DET

Javy Baez – CHC

One of my favorite parts of this exercise is finding the guys whose stats far outweigh their current reputation.  After hitting a huge game-tying home run in the All Star Game, more people will now know Scooter Gennett's name.  Eugenio Suarez has been possibly a top 5 third basemen over the last 12 months.  Whit Merrifield should be a top trade option for many teams over the next few weeks.  I already talked about Castellanos and how he has flown under the radar.  Some might be surprised to see Javy Baez on this list, but I think he has been more known for his antics and his defense.  It is easy to miss how good he has become at the plate.

Underrated Pitchers

Aaron Nola – PHI

Trevor Bauer – CLE

James Paxton – SEA

Carlos Carrasco – CLE

Blake Snell – TB

On almost every list, Aaron Nola was there.  He is one of the best pitchers in the league, and if the Phillies make the playoffs, he will be known for what he is.  Trevor Bauer has been a key member of the Indians rotation, but it is easy to be overshadowed by Kluber.  This might just be because I am a Mariners fan, but I feel like all things Mariners are underrated.  James Paxton is an ace whose stats show he should be in the conversation with the top pitchers in the league.  If Bauer is overshadowed by Kluber, Carlos Carrasco is overshadowed by both.  Blake Snell has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, but he was even underrated by his fellow players, taking an injury to get him on the All Star Team this year.

The Ineligibles

J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS

Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY

Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU

Before I get into the MVP's and Cy Young winners for the Wraparound Season, I have to mention a couple ineligibles.  J.D. Martinez has been the best hitter over the last 12 months, and it isn't even close.  Regardless of league, he tops almost every statistical category.  Giancarlo Stanton ended his time in Miami with one of the greatest second halves in MLB history.  It could be said his time in the Bronx so far has been disappointing, but when you are comparing it to 2017 (and his teammate Aaron Judge), it is really hard to exceed expectations.  Gerrit Cole seems to finally be turning into the ace everyone hoped he would be when he was a #1 pick in the draft.  It is like the Astros of the 2010's are like the Braves of the 1990's.  They make pitchers great.

AL Wraparound MVP

Mike Trout – LAA

Jose Ramirez – CLE

Mookie Betts – BOS

Francisco Lindor – CLE

Aaron Judge – NYY

For awhile, I thought Mike Trout's legacy was a result of the WAR era.  WAR was built for players like Trout.  However, he is a top hitter in the league, a top defender in the league.  He is the best player out there.  I am starting to agree with those that say he could go down as a top 5 player of all time.  Jose Ramirez topped my underrated player list last year, and now everyone is realizing how good he is.  Mookie Betts gets all the notoriety, but has definitely earned it with an outstanding first half.  Francisco Lindor might end up being the best of all the great young shortstops in the league right now.  Then there is Aaron Judge.  I keep waiting for something to show that he is too good to be true, but nothing has come up yet.

NL Wraparound MVP

Nolan Arenado – COL

Charlie Blackmon – COL

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ

Freddie Freeman – ATL

Joey Votto – CIN

I think a Triple Crown is reason enough to get the MVP.  Nolan Arenado still needs to be given the credit he deserves for how good he has been.  The same could be said for Charlie Blackmon.  These two teammates (Trevor Story could be part of the conversation too) make the Rockies a team no one wants to face in the playoffs.  Paul Goldschmidt might be the most overlooked superstar of the last decade.  Freddie Freeman has been the leader of possibly the biggest surprise team of this season.  No list of the NL's best hitters is complete without Joey Votto.

AL Wraparound Cy Young

Justin Verlander – DET / HOU

Corey Kluber – CLE

Chris Sale – BOS

Luis Severino – NYY

Trevor Bauer – CLE

This list was the easiest to make as these five pitchers topped almost every single statistical category I tabulated.  Justin Verlander has found his form again and is cementing his case as a no-doubt Hall of Famer.  Corey Kluber anchors one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  Chris Sale is a freak that is one of only three pitchers to start three straight All Star Games on the mound.  Luis Severino might be the best young pitcher to come along in some time.  Trevor Bauer, again, deserves more credit than he gets.  By the way, the top three on this list is the same as last year.  Different order, but the same.

NL Wraparound Cy Young

Max Scherzer – WAS

Jacob deGrom – NYM

Aaron Nola – PHI

Patrick Corbin – ARZ

Zack Greinke – ARZ

One of the most significant parts of this list is who is missing.  Clayton Kershaw, thought to be one of the best pitchers of his generation, has been so injured and banged up over the last 12 months that he didn't even make my list of the top 156 pitchers statistically of the last 12 months.  Max Scherzer was number one last year, and is number one again.  Like Verlander, he seems to only get better.  There is a reason so many teams want Jacob deGrom this Trade Deadline.  He is really really good.  (On a side note, also missing the top 156 was deGrom teammate Noah Syndergaard.)  Aaron Nola will soon have the reputation that matches his skill.  Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke show why the Diamondbacks made the playoffs last year and are in position to do it again this year.  They have put together a great starting rotation.

Top Relievers

Edwin Diaz – SEA

Kenley Jansen – LAD

Craig Kimbrel – BOS

Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS

Brad Hand – SD

Although he joined the long list of closers to blow a save at the All Star Game, it is hard to deny the dominance of Edwin Diaz over the last 12 months.  Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel might be the most trusted arms in each league because they have shown they can do it year after year.  Sean Doolittle has been filthy for several years now.  Being in DC might actually get him some recognition for it.  The Indians picking up Brad Hand has the potential to have just as much impact on the playoffs (maybe more) as the Dodgers picking up Machado.

To see all the stats gathered for the Wraparound Season, click the link below:

2017-2018 Wraparound Season Stats