2024 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies are stuck in one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball (there seem to be a lot of those this year...).  Will they be able to make a little noise in the top heavy NL West in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#27

MIH - Kris Bryant

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Ezequiel Tovar

FP - Charlie Blackmon will not end the season in a Rockies uniform.

2023 Results

#28

Highest WAR (Position) - Nolan Jones

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Kyle Freeland

The arch of the 2023 Colorado Rockies was not a good one.  Two of their most established pitchers went down with Tommy John surgery mid-season, most of their lineup struggled to be average, and their big budget star has struggled to stay healthy, only playing in 122 games over 2 seasons.  Even when he is healthy, Kris Bryant has been inconsistent at best.  In 2023, he was just bad.  The one bright spot in 2023 was the emergence of Nolan Jones, who looks like a star in the making.

Additions / Subtractions

When you are a rebuilding team in a strong division with a megadeal contract weighing down your payroll, there's not much to do in the off-season besides develop the young talent you have.  They barely made any fringe moves to accent their roster with veterans.  The most notable adds this off-season were starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson, filling in the spots of German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela as they recover from the dreaded elbow surgery.  There aren't really any notable subtractions, and the offensive personnel is pretty much the same as they ended last year with.

Most Important Hitter

Nolan Jones

After a true breakout year in 2023, many people are now talking about Nolan Jones as the "best player you haven't heard of."  Although the expectations are warranted after a 138 OPS+ in 2023 with 20 homers, 20 steals, 62 RBI's, and a .297 average in just 106 games, that is a high bar for someone with just 134 total big league games under their belt.  With that said, if Nolan Jones is able to continue his growth and truly becomes the star many are expecting, he could be a face of the franchise moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Dakota Hudson

Dakota Hudson is probably the most interesting flier the Rockies are taking this year.  Once a highly-touted prospect, Hudson showed flashes of brilliance over the last 6 seasons in St. Louis, but he could never develop much consistency in performance or health.  Now he has a fresh start entering his age 29 season.  With the injuries in the Rockies rotation, Dakota Hudson is going to have every opportunity to prove what he can do.  If he does, he could stabilize a rotation that never has any stability.

Prospect to Watch

Zac Veen

The Rockies currently sport the 19th best farm system with 4 Top 100 prospects, but none of them are expected to be ready this season.  However, a former Top 100 prospect could be ready in Zac Veen.  With the 9th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, the Rockies went with this high school prep outfielder that looked poised to be a star.  The start of his professional career showed that promise, but a wrist injury last season slowed his progress.  Now that Veen is healthy again, look for his swing to come back, his growth to continue, and for him to be manning a corner outfield spot opposite Nolan Jones before the end of the season.

2024 Prediction

5th in NL West

The Rockies are stuck in the cellar.  Their best case scenario in 2024 is to develop some of their young talent, establish a respectable rotation, watch Nolan Jones become a star ... and get beat up by the rest of their division.  In a few years, this could turn around, but not yet.

Fearless Prediction

Kris Bryant wins the 2024 Comeback Player of the Year.

You get a feeling that Kris Bryant has been so unreliable in his first two seasons in Denver that any contributions they get from him in 2024 are just a bonus to the player development they are working on with the rest of the roster.  However, you have to think Bryant still has something left in the tank.  He just has to stay healthy.  He's slated to be the everyday first baseman to try and keep him healthy.  If he plays over 100 games, he has a shot at the comeback title, which is one of the only awards Kris Bryant hasn't won in his crazy up-and-down career.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies made some big news this offseason, but it wasn't for something that will help them win in 2021.  Are the Rockies going to be competitive this season, or is the start of a rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Brendan Rodgers

FP - Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

2020 Results

#23 - 26-34, 4th in NL West

The downward spiral of the Colorado Rockies started as soon as rumors surfaced that Nolan Arenado was available via trade just one season after signing a megadeal.  The 2020 season for the Rockies wasn't horrible, but it wasn't good either.  The Rockies seemed to be stuck waiting to see what would happen with Arenado.  I honestly can't believe that my Fearless Prediction actually came true.

Additions / Subtractions

This section starts and ends with Nolan Arenado.  Take your pick on which was the bigger trade this offseason between Arenado to the Cardinals and Francisco Lindor to the Mets.  (I would argue that the Arenado trade was bigger because he is under contract past 2021.)  With that said, Arenado isn't the only missing player from last year's roster.  Starting catcher Tony Wolters signed elsewhere, first baseman Daniel Murphy retired, centerfielder Kevin Pillar signed elsewhere, outfielder David Dahl signed elsewhere, DH Matt Kemp is gone, Ian Desmond opted out for a second straight season ... and that's just the lineup!  All of these subtractions were replaced with internal solutions.  No one significant was added to the lineup this offseason.  The pitching staff is almost the same except for young pitcher Austin Gomber joining the rotation from the Arenado trade.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Just like the 2020 season was completely overshadowed by what would happen with Nolan Arenado, the 2021 season will be completely overshadowed by what will happen with Trevor Story.  He is easily the best player on the roster now, but it is his last season before free agency.  If the Rockies trade him or let him walk after the season, then we know the Rockies are entering a full rebuild.  If they find a way to re-sign him (which is unlikely after seeing the Arenado saga play out after his big deal), it shows that the Rockies are going to be bouncing back sooner rather than later.  So not just for 2021, but the next 10 years of this franchise revolve around what happens with this player this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Gray

This Rockies' rotation has some decent arms that are learning how to pitch in Colorado.  The man that was supposed to be the ace of this staff during this run was supposed to be Jon Gray.  However, he has been passed up by other young hurlers on his club like German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela.  If Gray can find a way to capture some of the promise his talent showed early on in his career, then this pitching staff could carry this team in a way it has never done before.  Or be traded.  This could happen too.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Vilade

What makes matters worse for the Rockies is on top of having an aging roster that is trading away its stars to save money, their farm system is not very good.  At the end of last season, MLB.com ranked the Rockies as having the 28th best farm system in all of baseball with only one top 100 prospect.  Although Zac Veen has the potential to be a stud, he is a 19 year old outfielder drafted straight out of high school that is at least 3 years away from making a big league impact.  They have a few prospects that could break into the big club this season, with Ryan Vilade as the most intriguing.  The Rockies' fourth ranked prospect, Vilade can play third or the corner outfield spots, places where there could be potential holes to fill with the departure of Arenado and the opt out of Desmond making those spots pretty thin.  He has the potential to be an impact bat in the center of that lineup moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL West

This season is going to be ugly for the Rockies.  Arenado was the heart and soul of that roster.  Now he's gone, and their next best player is most likely counting down the days he can leave too.  Their pitching staff might be able to keep them in games, but it is most likely going to be a lost season for the Rockies.

Fearless Prediction

Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

The way the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado really tarnished their reputation in how they handle their stars.  Whether it is the truth or not, the way it looks is they signed Arenado to a megadeal they were never going to fulfill because they were just going to trade him after making the commitment.  With that in mind, there is no way Trevor Story signs long term in Colorado.  If he isn't going to sign past this season, and the season is going to be as unsuccessful as it appears to be, they should trade him while they can still get something for him.  The entire season will be defined by what they will do with Story, just like 2020 was defined by the Arenado drama.  Trade him now and move on.  The sooner he is gone, the sooner the franchise can start over and rebuild.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#7

The Colorado Rockies made a solid run into the postseason in 2018.  Will that be followed up by another serious run at a title in 2019?

2018 Predictions

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLCS

2018 Results

91-72, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLDS

The Rockies finally showed the promise their roster had and pushed through into the playoffs for the first time since 2009.  It took a crazy route of losing a one game playoff with the Dodgers for the division title, then beating the Cubs in the Wild Card Game.  All this came to nothing as they were swept by the Brewers in the divisional round.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rockies worked to supplement their roster to try and make it a little further this time around.  There was one key addition, one key subtraction, and one key extension.  First, they brought in Daniel Murphy to help give some extra pop and stability to the middle of the order.  Unfortunately, their bullpen was weakened some by Adam Ottavino signing elsewhere.  Last, their giant extension given to Nolan Arenado ensured their best player would be in Denver for a long time.

Most Important Hitter

David Dahl

The Rockies let a couple veteran outfielders in Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez leave in free agency as well.  This is because they are relying on a full season from David Dahl.  Dahl is entering his age 25 season and is a potential star ready to break out if he can stay on the field.  That has turned out to be a big if though.  Dahl played 63 games in 2016 before injuries forced him to miss the entire 2017 season.  Last year, he only played 77 games with the big club.  When healthy, he has been a solid hitter.  A full season will allow him to grow and progress even more.  The Rockies will need that production from him, which means they will need a full season from him.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Freeland

In 2018, Kyle Freeland emerged as something the Rockies have been looking for forever: an ace.  In only his second full season, Freeland seemed to overcome the curse of Coors Field by posting a 2.85 ERA over 202 innings.  He had an ERA+ of 164 which shows just how elite he was.  He was recognized for this great season by finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Now the Rockies need him to do it again.  They need Freeland to continue to become one of the elite starting pitchers in the game.  If he can, he will stabilize a rotation that is always needing stability in the high elevation.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The 3rd overall pick in the 2015 Draft, Brendan Rodgers is a 22 year old infielder that is ready to burst onto the scene.  Rockies fans have been aware of Rodgers ever since he was drafted as a can't-miss prospect.  Now, with DJ LeMahieu moving on, there is a spot for him at second base that he will most likely take sometime beofre the All Star Break.  Once he does, watch out!

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

I have the Rockies getting the same distance they got last year.  Their offense can be something special.  It is, as always in the Mile High City, if the pitching can keep up.  They finally have some young arms that can perform at the high altitudes, but the bullpen lost some luster.  The National League is really deep, and the Rockies look to be just into the second tier of the elite.  They will consistently be a playoff team, but they need just a little more to really be a threat in the NL.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

Arenado has come very close to this the last few years.  He has finished in the top 8 each of the last four years in MVP voting, moving up the list each year (8th in '15, 5th in '16, 4th in '17, 3rd in '18).  With his new extension in hand, and another playoff run in sight, look for him to finally get the award his talent deserves.