2021 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies made some big news this offseason, but it wasn't for something that will help them win in 2021.  Are the Rockies going to be competitive this season, or is the start of a rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Brendan Rodgers

FP - Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

2020 Results

#23 - 26-34, 4th in NL West

The downward spiral of the Colorado Rockies started as soon as rumors surfaced that Nolan Arenado was available via trade just one season after signing a megadeal.  The 2020 season for the Rockies wasn't horrible, but it wasn't good either.  The Rockies seemed to be stuck waiting to see what would happen with Arenado.  I honestly can't believe that my Fearless Prediction actually came true.

Additions / Subtractions

This section starts and ends with Nolan Arenado.  Take your pick on which was the bigger trade this offseason between Arenado to the Cardinals and Francisco Lindor to the Mets.  (I would argue that the Arenado trade was bigger because he is under contract past 2021.)  With that said, Arenado isn't the only missing player from last year's roster.  Starting catcher Tony Wolters signed elsewhere, first baseman Daniel Murphy retired, centerfielder Kevin Pillar signed elsewhere, outfielder David Dahl signed elsewhere, DH Matt Kemp is gone, Ian Desmond opted out for a second straight season ... and that's just the lineup!  All of these subtractions were replaced with internal solutions.  No one significant was added to the lineup this offseason.  The pitching staff is almost the same except for young pitcher Austin Gomber joining the rotation from the Arenado trade.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Just like the 2020 season was completely overshadowed by what would happen with Nolan Arenado, the 2021 season will be completely overshadowed by what will happen with Trevor Story.  He is easily the best player on the roster now, but it is his last season before free agency.  If the Rockies trade him or let him walk after the season, then we know the Rockies are entering a full rebuild.  If they find a way to re-sign him (which is unlikely after seeing the Arenado saga play out after his big deal), it shows that the Rockies are going to be bouncing back sooner rather than later.  So not just for 2021, but the next 10 years of this franchise revolve around what happens with this player this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Gray

This Rockies' rotation has some decent arms that are learning how to pitch in Colorado.  The man that was supposed to be the ace of this staff during this run was supposed to be Jon Gray.  However, he has been passed up by other young hurlers on his club like German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela.  If Gray can find a way to capture some of the promise his talent showed early on in his career, then this pitching staff could carry this team in a way it has never done before.  Or be traded.  This could happen too.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Vilade

What makes matters worse for the Rockies is on top of having an aging roster that is trading away its stars to save money, their farm system is not very good.  At the end of last season, MLB.com ranked the Rockies as having the 28th best farm system in all of baseball with only one top 100 prospect.  Although Zac Veen has the potential to be a stud, he is a 19 year old outfielder drafted straight out of high school that is at least 3 years away from making a big league impact.  They have a few prospects that could break into the big club this season, with Ryan Vilade as the most intriguing.  The Rockies' fourth ranked prospect, Vilade can play third or the corner outfield spots, places where there could be potential holes to fill with the departure of Arenado and the opt out of Desmond making those spots pretty thin.  He has the potential to be an impact bat in the center of that lineup moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL West

This season is going to be ugly for the Rockies.  Arenado was the heart and soul of that roster.  Now he's gone, and their next best player is most likely counting down the days he can leave too.  Their pitching staff might be able to keep them in games, but it is most likely going to be a lost season for the Rockies.

Fearless Prediction

Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

The way the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado really tarnished their reputation in how they handle their stars.  Whether it is the truth or not, the way it looks is they signed Arenado to a megadeal they were never going to fulfill because they were just going to trade him after making the commitment.  With that in mind, there is no way Trevor Story signs long term in Colorado.  If he isn't going to sign past this season, and the season is going to be as unsuccessful as it appears to be, they should trade him while they can still get something for him.  The entire season will be defined by what they will do with Story, just like 2020 was defined by the Arenado drama.  Trade him now and move on.  The sooner he is gone, the sooner the franchise can start over and rebuild.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#24

The Colorado Rockies flipped their record in 2019, following up two straight trips to the playoffs with a disappointing 90 loss season.  Will 2020 bring them back to playoff form or will they continue to spiral into obscurity?

2019 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH: David Dahl

MIP: Kyle Freeland

PTW: Brendan Rodgers

FP: Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

2019 Results

#22 - 71-91, 4th in NL West

Boy, did I have the Rockies 2019 season wrong!  I saw the Rockies getting back to the playoffs for a third season in a row.  Instead, the season got away from them and fell apart.  David Dahl only played in 100 games, but the team offense was fine with five players topping 20 home runs (even though only 3 of them ended up with an OPS+ over 100 ... Mile High bias...).  The pitching is really what fell flat.  Jon Gray had a standout season, but my Most Important Pitcher Kyle Freeland was much more the norm, finishing with a 6.73 ERA in just over 100 innings, earning a 77 ERA+.  2019 was supposed to be the year Brendan Rodgers broke out as well, but instead he only played in 25 disappointing games at the big league level before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.  As for Arenado's shot at an MVP, the team needed to be better.  With that said, he finished 6th in the voting, earned his 5th straight All Star appearance, his 7th straight Gold Glove (which is how many years he has been in the league), and his 3rd straight Platinum Glove, designating him as the best defender in the National League regardless of position.  Instead of discussions of how valuable he is to the Rockies, the talk instead went to whether or not he and his newly signed monstrous contract should be traded.

Additions / Subtractions

An interesting aspect of the Rockies' current situation is after a disappointing 90 loss season, they made zero significant roster changes.  Outside of injured players returning, the Rockies will run the same lineup out on Opening Day that they had to end 2019.  The most significant storyline in the offseason was the fact that Nolan Arenado is still a Rockie.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

If the Rockies are going to compete in 2020, it is going to be on the back of their offense.  Although Arenado may be their best player, the emerging superstar on the team is Trevor Story.  After a breakout season in 2016 and a setback year in 2017, Story has had two straight years where he has made the All Star Team and won the NL shortstop Silver Slugger.  With the chances Nolan Arenado sticks around Colorado much longer definitely up in the air, Story will need to be the face of the franchise through a possible full rebuild ... or be traded himself.

Most Important Pitcher

German Marquez

Jon Gray was the best pitcher on the Rockies staff last season, but German Marquez was definitely second best.  With that said, there was definitely some regression from his previous two seasons.  He is only entering his age 25 season, which means some hiccups like 2019 are bound to happen.  If the Rockies are going to be any good in 2020, the pitching has to be much better, and that starts with Marquez emerging as a possible ace of the staff to go along with Gray.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The Rockies have a lackluster farm system (which is why trading Arenado is on the table) only boasting one player in baseball's Top 100 prospects.  That one player is Brendan Rodgers.  I don't like highlighting the same prospect two years in a row, but I really have no choice with him being by far their best prospect and the only prospect in their top 6 that has a chance of playing in the big leagues this season.  Rodgers is a middle infielder that can really hit.  He was taken 3rd overall in the 2015 draft behind fellow shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman.  Rodgers has taken longer to work his way to the big leagues because he was a high school standout instead of a proven college player.  The biggest issue facing Rodgers and the possible impact he could have in 2020 is the fact that there is nowhere for him to play.  Ryan McMahon emerged in 2019 as a legitimate everyday player at second base, and unless there is an injury (or trade), the left side of the infield is pretty well set for awhile.  So we will see how Rodgers gets in the lineup, but his talent deserves to play.

2020 Prediction

4th in NL West

I am not optimistic about the Rockies' chances in 2020.  Their current roster makeup doesn't seem to be working anymore, they did nothing to address it in the offseason, and they have very little coming up to help them from their farm system.  Combine that with the other three teams in their division predicted above them gaining momentum right now, and it is going to be a disappointing season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

It is the only real storyline in Colorado right now.  Will Nolan Arenado remain in Colorado?  He is one of the best players in baseball right now, and he seems to be available for the right price.  There already appeared to be some drama between Arenado and the front office of the Rockies for even considering the possibility this offseason.  Now it seems inevitable at some point.  It also looks like it might be the right move to make.  The Rockies are stuck right now.  They had their peak, and now they have a stagnant roster of established stars that can't seem to win together.  They need to start to build for their next competitive window instead of holding on to this one.  Trading Arenado would bring back a prospect package that would give an instant jump start to their lackluster farm system.  It would also give an opportunity on the infield for Brendan Rodgers to make his mark.  The only thing that can save Arenado in Colorado is a playoff run in 2020.  I don't see that happening, so instead his days in Denver are numbered.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

The first National League team to be previewed is one of the more interesting teams every year.  Their offense is always strong, but is it because of the park?  Because of the park, it is next to impossible to get quality pitching.  All this leaves a team constantly trying to rise above mediocrity.  Let's look at the 2016 Colorado Rockies.

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in NL West

2015 Results: 68-94, 5th in NL West

Another lackluster year for the Rockies in 2015 led to a Trade Deadline move that sent away their superstar shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  I pretty much predicted their season right, thinking they had a chance to be a little higher.  This was less about misjudging the Rockies and more about misjudging the success of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who I picked for the cellar.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The trade of Tulo started the Rockies' offseason early.  However, they had a surprisingly quiet yet confusing offseason otherwise.  They signed some bullpen help in Jason Motte and Chad Qualls.  They signed Gerardo Parra, but already had a full outfield.  So that meant they had to trade one or more of them.  Instead of trading Carlos Gonzalez, whose value is at its peak for a big return, they traded Corey Dickerson for a 29 year old lefty reliever in Jake McGee.  Now McGee is a good pitcher, but they did not get the prospects they needed.  Now Jose Reyes is on administrative leave and may not play for awhile depending on how the investigation of his off-field issues goes.  Here is another instance where Ian Desmond might come in handy.  Seriously, someone sign this guy!

Most Important Hitter

Charlie Blackmon

This was a toss up between Blackmon and DJ LaMahieu, but Charlie Blackmon has been the stronger hitter and is more essential to the offense.  The Rockies have one of the best sets of power hitters to anchor their lineup in the league with CarGo and breakout star Nolan Arenado.  For them to be successful, they need someone on base in front of them.  Blackmon broke out in 2014 and made the All Star Team.  He was solid in 2015, but not All Star level.  He needs to be All Star level for the Rockies to be successful in 2015.

Most Important Pitcher

Jason Motte

In 2012, Jason Motte led the league by saving 42 games for the St. Louis Cardinals.  He followed that up by missing all of 2013 with an injury, a shortened 2014 season, and a 2015 campaign where he was finally healthy enough to pitch a full season.  Now the Rockies are bringing him in to hopefully be their closer.  They do have Chad Qualls and Jake McGee just in case Motte doesn't work out, but they are more built for the setup roles.  For the Rockies' bullpen to be strong this year, Motte needs to return to his 2012 form.

Player to Watch

Jon Gray

Jon Gray is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.  It must be tough to be a pitcher trying to break into the big leagues in Colorado.  Gray had a short run with the big club in 2015 that was disappointing.  He is slated to start 2016 in the rotation for the Rockies.  Colorado needs Gray and other pitching prospects like him to work out to have the success they hope for.  An honorable mention here is reliever Miguel Castro, who closed some games for the Blue Jays last year before being traded to the Rockies in the Tulowitzki deal.

2016 Prediction

4th in NL West

The NL West is very competitive this year, especially with the improvements made by the Diamondbacks.  I think the Rockies might surprise some people this year, and by surprise, I mean not finish in last place.  They have a very strong offense and a lot of young talent.  The only question is if they can find enough pitching to stay in some games.  If they do, they might be respectable this season.

Fearless Prediction

Carlos Gonzalez will be part of a blockbuster trade at the Trade Deadline.

Like I said earlier, CarGo not being traded this offseason was a surprise, especially after Troy Tulowitzki was traded in July.  I don't think the Rockies are unwilling to trade him, but they are waiting for the right trade.  Carlos Gonzalez is under contract until 2018 and is a bonafide power hitter.  Someone is going to get desperate in July and give the Rockies the package they are looking for.  Then they Rockies will look like geniuses for not trading him this offseason.