2023 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #27

The Colorado Rockies were about as irrelevant as could be in 2022 trying to split the difference between rebuilding and contending.  Could they start to turn things around in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#28 - 5th in NL West

MIH - Kris Bryant

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Elehuris Montero

2022 Results

#23 - 68-94, 5th in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Brendan Rodgers

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Daniel Bard

The Rockies were in a weird spot in 2022.  They are a few years removed from selling off the face of their franchise (Nolan Arenado), and they watched their star shortstop leave in free agency (Trevor Story).  They looked like they were a prime candidate for a teardown and rebuild.  Then they signed Kris Bryant to a megadeal.  They didn't have a ton of young talent contributing, while their lineup was a random combination of journeyman veterans (C.J. Cron, Jose Iglesias, Randal Grichuk, Daniel Bard) and the remnants of the "glory days" of the Rockies (Charlie Blackmon).  The one exception might be Brendan Rodgers, who is finally establishing himself as an everyday big leaguer.  For the most part though, the Rockies were stuck in the middle with nowhere to go.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rockies might have had the least active offseason of any team.  They let a few veterans leave in free agency like Jose Iglesias, Sam Hilliard, and Alex Colome.  They took some fliers on a few guys like pitchers Brent Suter and Ty Blach, and shortstop Cole Tucker.  That's about it.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

Part of what hijacked any promise and potential of the 2022 season is the fact that their big investment, Kris Bryant, only played 42 games in the first season of his 7 year deal.  The former Rookie of the Year, MVP, and World Series champion was productive when he actually played, earning an OPS+ of 127.  Now he's entering his age 31 season, and the biggest question the Rockies face entering this season revolves around Bryant's health.  Was 2022 an anomaly, or was it a sign of a body breaking down?  The Rockies are invested in his health, and their success for the foreseeable future depends on him being in the lineup every day.

Most Important Pitcher

German Marquez

The perpetual question surrounding the Rockies every season is if they can pitch.  All their starters right now are fairly established, but none of them have emerged as stars.  They also have a pretty bare farm system in terms of pitchers if they are looking for immediate help this season too.  One of the most interesting pitchers they have that needs to have a big year is German Marquez.  After an All Star season in 2021, he had the worst season of his career in 2022.  Now he needs to bounce back and get back to being a solid starter behind Kyle Freeland at the top of the rotation.

Prospect to Watch

Ezequiel Tovar

One difference between 2022 and 2023 for the Rockies is they have a top tier prospect ready to make an impact at the big league level.  Ezequiel Tovar is the gem of the Rockies' system (which is average at best).  Ranked the #25 prospect in all of baseball, Tovar is slated to be the Opening Day starting shortstop for the Rockies this year after making his debut at the end of last season.  He is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop that is starting to show he can be an impact bat in the lineup.

2023 Prediction

5th in NL West

The Rockies still feel stuck.  They are in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball so they can't contend, they don't have a farm system full of big league ready talent so they can't hand it over to the young guys, they don't have any stars left to trade to replenish their farm system (unless they already try to flip Kris Bryant) so they can't reset.  They are stuck.  They might take some steps forward, but I don't see them leaving the cellar of the NL West this season.

Fearless Prediction

Charlie Blackmon will not end the season in a Rockies uniform.

The last pillar of the Rockies glory years is Charlie Blackmon.  He has had an amazing career in Colorado, winning a batting title, 2 Silver Sluggers, and making 4 All Star Games.  However, his numbers have taken a nose dive the last 2 or 3 seasons.  He is entering his age 36 season and the last year of his contract with the Rockies.  Look for him being a possible trade candidate down the stretch or maybe even a DFA candidate if his production doesn't rebound in 2023.  I hope that's not the case for one of the best Rockies to ever put on the jersey.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies made some big news this offseason, but it wasn't for something that will help them win in 2021.  Are the Rockies going to be competitive this season, or is the start of a rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Brendan Rodgers

FP - Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

2020 Results

#23 - 26-34, 4th in NL West

The downward spiral of the Colorado Rockies started as soon as rumors surfaced that Nolan Arenado was available via trade just one season after signing a megadeal.  The 2020 season for the Rockies wasn't horrible, but it wasn't good either.  The Rockies seemed to be stuck waiting to see what would happen with Arenado.  I honestly can't believe that my Fearless Prediction actually came true.

Additions / Subtractions

This section starts and ends with Nolan Arenado.  Take your pick on which was the bigger trade this offseason between Arenado to the Cardinals and Francisco Lindor to the Mets.  (I would argue that the Arenado trade was bigger because he is under contract past 2021.)  With that said, Arenado isn't the only missing player from last year's roster.  Starting catcher Tony Wolters signed elsewhere, first baseman Daniel Murphy retired, centerfielder Kevin Pillar signed elsewhere, outfielder David Dahl signed elsewhere, DH Matt Kemp is gone, Ian Desmond opted out for a second straight season ... and that's just the lineup!  All of these subtractions were replaced with internal solutions.  No one significant was added to the lineup this offseason.  The pitching staff is almost the same except for young pitcher Austin Gomber joining the rotation from the Arenado trade.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Just like the 2020 season was completely overshadowed by what would happen with Nolan Arenado, the 2021 season will be completely overshadowed by what will happen with Trevor Story.  He is easily the best player on the roster now, but it is his last season before free agency.  If the Rockies trade him or let him walk after the season, then we know the Rockies are entering a full rebuild.  If they find a way to re-sign him (which is unlikely after seeing the Arenado saga play out after his big deal), it shows that the Rockies are going to be bouncing back sooner rather than later.  So not just for 2021, but the next 10 years of this franchise revolve around what happens with this player this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Gray

This Rockies' rotation has some decent arms that are learning how to pitch in Colorado.  The man that was supposed to be the ace of this staff during this run was supposed to be Jon Gray.  However, he has been passed up by other young hurlers on his club like German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela.  If Gray can find a way to capture some of the promise his talent showed early on in his career, then this pitching staff could carry this team in a way it has never done before.  Or be traded.  This could happen too.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Vilade

What makes matters worse for the Rockies is on top of having an aging roster that is trading away its stars to save money, their farm system is not very good.  At the end of last season, MLB.com ranked the Rockies as having the 28th best farm system in all of baseball with only one top 100 prospect.  Although Zac Veen has the potential to be a stud, he is a 19 year old outfielder drafted straight out of high school that is at least 3 years away from making a big league impact.  They have a few prospects that could break into the big club this season, with Ryan Vilade as the most intriguing.  The Rockies' fourth ranked prospect, Vilade can play third or the corner outfield spots, places where there could be potential holes to fill with the departure of Arenado and the opt out of Desmond making those spots pretty thin.  He has the potential to be an impact bat in the center of that lineup moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL West

This season is going to be ugly for the Rockies.  Arenado was the heart and soul of that roster.  Now he's gone, and their next best player is most likely counting down the days he can leave too.  Their pitching staff might be able to keep them in games, but it is most likely going to be a lost season for the Rockies.

Fearless Prediction

Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

The way the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado really tarnished their reputation in how they handle their stars.  Whether it is the truth or not, the way it looks is they signed Arenado to a megadeal they were never going to fulfill because they were just going to trade him after making the commitment.  With that in mind, there is no way Trevor Story signs long term in Colorado.  If he isn't going to sign past this season, and the season is going to be as unsuccessful as it appears to be, they should trade him while they can still get something for him.  The entire season will be defined by what they will do with Story, just like 2020 was defined by the Arenado drama.  Trade him now and move on.  The sooner he is gone, the sooner the franchise can start over and rebuild.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#24

The Colorado Rockies flipped their record in 2019, following up two straight trips to the playoffs with a disappointing 90 loss season.  Will 2020 bring them back to playoff form or will they continue to spiral into obscurity?

2019 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH: David Dahl

MIP: Kyle Freeland

PTW: Brendan Rodgers

FP: Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

2019 Results

#22 - 71-91, 4th in NL West

Boy, did I have the Rockies 2019 season wrong!  I saw the Rockies getting back to the playoffs for a third season in a row.  Instead, the season got away from them and fell apart.  David Dahl only played in 100 games, but the team offense was fine with five players topping 20 home runs (even though only 3 of them ended up with an OPS+ over 100 ... Mile High bias...).  The pitching is really what fell flat.  Jon Gray had a standout season, but my Most Important Pitcher Kyle Freeland was much more the norm, finishing with a 6.73 ERA in just over 100 innings, earning a 77 ERA+.  2019 was supposed to be the year Brendan Rodgers broke out as well, but instead he only played in 25 disappointing games at the big league level before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.  As for Arenado's shot at an MVP, the team needed to be better.  With that said, he finished 6th in the voting, earned his 5th straight All Star appearance, his 7th straight Gold Glove (which is how many years he has been in the league), and his 3rd straight Platinum Glove, designating him as the best defender in the National League regardless of position.  Instead of discussions of how valuable he is to the Rockies, the talk instead went to whether or not he and his newly signed monstrous contract should be traded.

Additions / Subtractions

An interesting aspect of the Rockies' current situation is after a disappointing 90 loss season, they made zero significant roster changes.  Outside of injured players returning, the Rockies will run the same lineup out on Opening Day that they had to end 2019.  The most significant storyline in the offseason was the fact that Nolan Arenado is still a Rockie.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

If the Rockies are going to compete in 2020, it is going to be on the back of their offense.  Although Arenado may be their best player, the emerging superstar on the team is Trevor Story.  After a breakout season in 2016 and a setback year in 2017, Story has had two straight years where he has made the All Star Team and won the NL shortstop Silver Slugger.  With the chances Nolan Arenado sticks around Colorado much longer definitely up in the air, Story will need to be the face of the franchise through a possible full rebuild ... or be traded himself.

Most Important Pitcher

German Marquez

Jon Gray was the best pitcher on the Rockies staff last season, but German Marquez was definitely second best.  With that said, there was definitely some regression from his previous two seasons.  He is only entering his age 25 season, which means some hiccups like 2019 are bound to happen.  If the Rockies are going to be any good in 2020, the pitching has to be much better, and that starts with Marquez emerging as a possible ace of the staff to go along with Gray.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The Rockies have a lackluster farm system (which is why trading Arenado is on the table) only boasting one player in baseball's Top 100 prospects.  That one player is Brendan Rodgers.  I don't like highlighting the same prospect two years in a row, but I really have no choice with him being by far their best prospect and the only prospect in their top 6 that has a chance of playing in the big leagues this season.  Rodgers is a middle infielder that can really hit.  He was taken 3rd overall in the 2015 draft behind fellow shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman.  Rodgers has taken longer to work his way to the big leagues because he was a high school standout instead of a proven college player.  The biggest issue facing Rodgers and the possible impact he could have in 2020 is the fact that there is nowhere for him to play.  Ryan McMahon emerged in 2019 as a legitimate everyday player at second base, and unless there is an injury (or trade), the left side of the infield is pretty well set for awhile.  So we will see how Rodgers gets in the lineup, but his talent deserves to play.

2020 Prediction

4th in NL West

I am not optimistic about the Rockies' chances in 2020.  Their current roster makeup doesn't seem to be working anymore, they did nothing to address it in the offseason, and they have very little coming up to help them from their farm system.  Combine that with the other three teams in their division predicted above them gaining momentum right now, and it is going to be a disappointing season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

It is the only real storyline in Colorado right now.  Will Nolan Arenado remain in Colorado?  He is one of the best players in baseball right now, and he seems to be available for the right price.  There already appeared to be some drama between Arenado and the front office of the Rockies for even considering the possibility this offseason.  Now it seems inevitable at some point.  It also looks like it might be the right move to make.  The Rockies are stuck right now.  They had their peak, and now they have a stagnant roster of established stars that can't seem to win together.  They need to start to build for their next competitive window instead of holding on to this one.  Trading Arenado would bring back a prospect package that would give an instant jump start to their lackluster farm system.  It would also give an opportunity on the infield for Brendan Rodgers to make his mark.  The only thing that can save Arenado in Colorado is a playoff run in 2020.  I don't see that happening, so instead his days in Denver are numbered.