2021 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

 #28

The Colorado Rockies made some big news this offseason, but it wasn't for something that will help them win in 2021.  Are the Rockies going to be competitive this season, or is the start of a rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#24 - 4th in NL West

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - German Marquez

PTW - Brendan Rodgers

FP - Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

2020 Results

#23 - 26-34, 4th in NL West

The downward spiral of the Colorado Rockies started as soon as rumors surfaced that Nolan Arenado was available via trade just one season after signing a megadeal.  The 2020 season for the Rockies wasn't horrible, but it wasn't good either.  The Rockies seemed to be stuck waiting to see what would happen with Arenado.  I honestly can't believe that my Fearless Prediction actually came true.

Additions / Subtractions

This section starts and ends with Nolan Arenado.  Take your pick on which was the bigger trade this offseason between Arenado to the Cardinals and Francisco Lindor to the Mets.  (I would argue that the Arenado trade was bigger because he is under contract past 2021.)  With that said, Arenado isn't the only missing player from last year's roster.  Starting catcher Tony Wolters signed elsewhere, first baseman Daniel Murphy retired, centerfielder Kevin Pillar signed elsewhere, outfielder David Dahl signed elsewhere, DH Matt Kemp is gone, Ian Desmond opted out for a second straight season ... and that's just the lineup!  All of these subtractions were replaced with internal solutions.  No one significant was added to the lineup this offseason.  The pitching staff is almost the same except for young pitcher Austin Gomber joining the rotation from the Arenado trade.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Just like the 2020 season was completely overshadowed by what would happen with Nolan Arenado, the 2021 season will be completely overshadowed by what will happen with Trevor Story.  He is easily the best player on the roster now, but it is his last season before free agency.  If the Rockies trade him or let him walk after the season, then we know the Rockies are entering a full rebuild.  If they find a way to re-sign him (which is unlikely after seeing the Arenado saga play out after his big deal), it shows that the Rockies are going to be bouncing back sooner rather than later.  So not just for 2021, but the next 10 years of this franchise revolve around what happens with this player this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Gray

This Rockies' rotation has some decent arms that are learning how to pitch in Colorado.  The man that was supposed to be the ace of this staff during this run was supposed to be Jon Gray.  However, he has been passed up by other young hurlers on his club like German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela.  If Gray can find a way to capture some of the promise his talent showed early on in his career, then this pitching staff could carry this team in a way it has never done before.  Or be traded.  This could happen too.

Prospect to Watch

Ryan Vilade

What makes matters worse for the Rockies is on top of having an aging roster that is trading away its stars to save money, their farm system is not very good.  At the end of last season, MLB.com ranked the Rockies as having the 28th best farm system in all of baseball with only one top 100 prospect.  Although Zac Veen has the potential to be a stud, he is a 19 year old outfielder drafted straight out of high school that is at least 3 years away from making a big league impact.  They have a few prospects that could break into the big club this season, with Ryan Vilade as the most intriguing.  The Rockies' fourth ranked prospect, Vilade can play third or the corner outfield spots, places where there could be potential holes to fill with the departure of Arenado and the opt out of Desmond making those spots pretty thin.  He has the potential to be an impact bat in the center of that lineup moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL West

This season is going to be ugly for the Rockies.  Arenado was the heart and soul of that roster.  Now he's gone, and their next best player is most likely counting down the days he can leave too.  Their pitching staff might be able to keep them in games, but it is most likely going to be a lost season for the Rockies.

Fearless Prediction

Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

The way the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado really tarnished their reputation in how they handle their stars.  Whether it is the truth or not, the way it looks is they signed Arenado to a megadeal they were never going to fulfill because they were just going to trade him after making the commitment.  With that in mind, there is no way Trevor Story signs long term in Colorado.  If he isn't going to sign past this season, and the season is going to be as unsuccessful as it appears to be, they should trade him while they can still get something for him.  The entire season will be defined by what they will do with Story, just like 2020 was defined by the Arenado drama.  Trade him now and move on.  The sooner he is gone, the sooner the franchise can start over and rebuild.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#24

The Colorado Rockies flipped their record in 2019, following up two straight trips to the playoffs with a disappointing 90 loss season.  Will 2020 bring them back to playoff form or will they continue to spiral into obscurity?

2019 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH: David Dahl

MIP: Kyle Freeland

PTW: Brendan Rodgers

FP: Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

2019 Results

#22 - 71-91, 4th in NL West

Boy, did I have the Rockies 2019 season wrong!  I saw the Rockies getting back to the playoffs for a third season in a row.  Instead, the season got away from them and fell apart.  David Dahl only played in 100 games, but the team offense was fine with five players topping 20 home runs (even though only 3 of them ended up with an OPS+ over 100 ... Mile High bias...).  The pitching is really what fell flat.  Jon Gray had a standout season, but my Most Important Pitcher Kyle Freeland was much more the norm, finishing with a 6.73 ERA in just over 100 innings, earning a 77 ERA+.  2019 was supposed to be the year Brendan Rodgers broke out as well, but instead he only played in 25 disappointing games at the big league level before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.  As for Arenado's shot at an MVP, the team needed to be better.  With that said, he finished 6th in the voting, earned his 5th straight All Star appearance, his 7th straight Gold Glove (which is how many years he has been in the league), and his 3rd straight Platinum Glove, designating him as the best defender in the National League regardless of position.  Instead of discussions of how valuable he is to the Rockies, the talk instead went to whether or not he and his newly signed monstrous contract should be traded.

Additions / Subtractions

An interesting aspect of the Rockies' current situation is after a disappointing 90 loss season, they made zero significant roster changes.  Outside of injured players returning, the Rockies will run the same lineup out on Opening Day that they had to end 2019.  The most significant storyline in the offseason was the fact that Nolan Arenado is still a Rockie.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

If the Rockies are going to compete in 2020, it is going to be on the back of their offense.  Although Arenado may be their best player, the emerging superstar on the team is Trevor Story.  After a breakout season in 2016 and a setback year in 2017, Story has had two straight years where he has made the All Star Team and won the NL shortstop Silver Slugger.  With the chances Nolan Arenado sticks around Colorado much longer definitely up in the air, Story will need to be the face of the franchise through a possible full rebuild ... or be traded himself.

Most Important Pitcher

German Marquez

Jon Gray was the best pitcher on the Rockies staff last season, but German Marquez was definitely second best.  With that said, there was definitely some regression from his previous two seasons.  He is only entering his age 25 season, which means some hiccups like 2019 are bound to happen.  If the Rockies are going to be any good in 2020, the pitching has to be much better, and that starts with Marquez emerging as a possible ace of the staff to go along with Gray.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The Rockies have a lackluster farm system (which is why trading Arenado is on the table) only boasting one player in baseball's Top 100 prospects.  That one player is Brendan Rodgers.  I don't like highlighting the same prospect two years in a row, but I really have no choice with him being by far their best prospect and the only prospect in their top 6 that has a chance of playing in the big leagues this season.  Rodgers is a middle infielder that can really hit.  He was taken 3rd overall in the 2015 draft behind fellow shortstops Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman.  Rodgers has taken longer to work his way to the big leagues because he was a high school standout instead of a proven college player.  The biggest issue facing Rodgers and the possible impact he could have in 2020 is the fact that there is nowhere for him to play.  Ryan McMahon emerged in 2019 as a legitimate everyday player at second base, and unless there is an injury (or trade), the left side of the infield is pretty well set for awhile.  So we will see how Rodgers gets in the lineup, but his talent deserves to play.

2020 Prediction

4th in NL West

I am not optimistic about the Rockies' chances in 2020.  Their current roster makeup doesn't seem to be working anymore, they did nothing to address it in the offseason, and they have very little coming up to help them from their farm system.  Combine that with the other three teams in their division predicted above them gaining momentum right now, and it is going to be a disappointing season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will not be on the Rockies' roster in 2021.

It is the only real storyline in Colorado right now.  Will Nolan Arenado remain in Colorado?  He is one of the best players in baseball right now, and he seems to be available for the right price.  There already appeared to be some drama between Arenado and the front office of the Rockies for even considering the possibility this offseason.  Now it seems inevitable at some point.  It also looks like it might be the right move to make.  The Rockies are stuck right now.  They had their peak, and now they have a stagnant roster of established stars that can't seem to win together.  They need to start to build for their next competitive window instead of holding on to this one.  Trading Arenado would bring back a prospect package that would give an instant jump start to their lackluster farm system.  It would also give an opportunity on the infield for Brendan Rodgers to make his mark.  The only thing that can save Arenado in Colorado is a playoff run in 2020.  I don't see that happening, so instead his days in Denver are numbered.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#7

The Colorado Rockies made a solid run into the postseason in 2018.  Will that be followed up by another serious run at a title in 2019?

2018 Predictions

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLCS

2018 Results

91-72, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLDS

The Rockies finally showed the promise their roster had and pushed through into the playoffs for the first time since 2009.  It took a crazy route of losing a one game playoff with the Dodgers for the division title, then beating the Cubs in the Wild Card Game.  All this came to nothing as they were swept by the Brewers in the divisional round.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rockies worked to supplement their roster to try and make it a little further this time around.  There was one key addition, one key subtraction, and one key extension.  First, they brought in Daniel Murphy to help give some extra pop and stability to the middle of the order.  Unfortunately, their bullpen was weakened some by Adam Ottavino signing elsewhere.  Last, their giant extension given to Nolan Arenado ensured their best player would be in Denver for a long time.

Most Important Hitter

David Dahl

The Rockies let a couple veteran outfielders in Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez leave in free agency as well.  This is because they are relying on a full season from David Dahl.  Dahl is entering his age 25 season and is a potential star ready to break out if he can stay on the field.  That has turned out to be a big if though.  Dahl played 63 games in 2016 before injuries forced him to miss the entire 2017 season.  Last year, he only played 77 games with the big club.  When healthy, he has been a solid hitter.  A full season will allow him to grow and progress even more.  The Rockies will need that production from him, which means they will need a full season from him.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Freeland

In 2018, Kyle Freeland emerged as something the Rockies have been looking for forever: an ace.  In only his second full season, Freeland seemed to overcome the curse of Coors Field by posting a 2.85 ERA over 202 innings.  He had an ERA+ of 164 which shows just how elite he was.  He was recognized for this great season by finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Now the Rockies need him to do it again.  They need Freeland to continue to become one of the elite starting pitchers in the game.  If he can, he will stabilize a rotation that is always needing stability in the high elevation.

Prospect to Watch

Brendan Rodgers

The 3rd overall pick in the 2015 Draft, Brendan Rodgers is a 22 year old infielder that is ready to burst onto the scene.  Rockies fans have been aware of Rodgers ever since he was drafted as a can't-miss prospect.  Now, with DJ LeMahieu moving on, there is a spot for him at second base that he will most likely take sometime beofre the All Star Break.  Once he does, watch out!

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

I have the Rockies getting the same distance they got last year.  Their offense can be something special.  It is, as always in the Mile High City, if the pitching can keep up.  They finally have some young arms that can perform at the high altitudes, but the bullpen lost some luster.  The National League is really deep, and the Rockies look to be just into the second tier of the elite.  They will consistently be a playoff team, but they need just a little more to really be a threat in the NL.

Fearless Prediction

Nolan Arenado will win the National League MVP.

Arenado has come very close to this the last few years.  He has finished in the top 8 each of the last four years in MVP voting, moving up the list each year (8th in '15, 5th in '16, 4th in '17, 3rd in '18).  With his new extension in hand, and another playoff run in sight, look for him to finally get the award his talent deserves.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Colorado Rockies

#10

The Colorado Rockies quietly have been improving over the last few seasons.  Will 2017 bring about more growth and maybe even a playoff birth?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in NL West

Carlos Gonzalez will be part of a blockbuster trade at the Trade Deadline.

2016 Results

75-87, 3rd in NL West

The Rockies played slightly better than expected in 2016.  They even had an outside shot at a playoff birth in September.  The struggle in Colorado has always been pitching, however a good group of young arms have made this a bright spot.  Over the last few seasons, Carlos Gonzalez has been on the trading block.  I thought last year would be the year he was finally dealt, but the Rockies decided to hold on to him and try to make a run in 2017 with him.

Additions / Subtractions

One of the surprises of the 2017 offseason was the Rockies signing Ian Desmond, who was a shortstop in 2015, a centerfielder in 2016, and is slated to be a first baseman in 2017 in Colorado.  They also bolstered their bullpen by signing closer Greg Holland and lefty Mike Dunn.  Possibly the biggest change this offseason was the firing of manager Walt Weiss and the hiring of former Padres' manager Bud Black.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

When the Rockies traded Troy Tulowitzki in 2015, many were confused as to why.  When Trevor Story burst on the scene in 2016, everyone understood.  Story ended the year with 27 home runs in only 97 games before going down with an injury.  Now he is entering his sophomore season and won't be sneaking up on anybody.  He has several things to prove in 2017.  First, he needs to prove that 2016 wasn't a fluke.  Second, he needs to prove that he can adjust as big league pitchers adjust to him.  Third, he needs to prove that he won't have the same issues his predecessor, Tulowizki, had in being injury proned.  If he is able to prove all these things, he will help make the Rockies one of the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Greg Holland

The Rockies have taken on a philosophy of building a rotation through their farm system while building a bullpen through trades and free agency.  Greg Holland is a perfect example of this.  Once the closer for the Royals, Holland missed much of the last two seasons with an injury.  He appears to be back to full health, and the Rockies are counting on it as they have made him their closer.  With him anchoring the ninth inning, the Rockies' bullpen sets up pretty well against just about everyone.  If Holland can't cut it, the whole bullpen has to adjust and might not be the strength it looks to be.  All this rides on how Greg Holland is able to pitch this season.

Player to Watch

Jeff Hoffman

The Rockies have one of the youngest rotations in all of baseball, with no starter over the age of 27.  Even with the loss of Chad Bettis to cancer treatments, the starting rotation is also a very deep position going into 2017 with several top prospects waiting in the wings to join the rotation if anything happens.  The best of these starters-in-waiting is Jeff Hoffman, one of the highly-touted prospects the Rockies received in the Troy Tulowitzki trade.  This 24 year old right-hander started 6 games for the Rockies last season, getting a taste of the big leagues.  Now he is ready to make a big impact when they need him.

2017 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

I love the way the Rockies look this season.  They have always sported a strong lineup, highlighted by batting champ DJ LeMahieu and the most underrated superstar in the league in Nolan Arenado.  Now their lineup was been upgraded by the signing of Ian Desmond.  Their pitching staff has grown up in Colorado and knows how to pitch there.  Their bullpen is strong with Greg Holland, Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, and Adam Ottovino.  They also have a new manager in Bud Black that is a former pitcher.  Everything going on is pointing to the Rockies being the surprise team of the season.  I have them taking a Wild Card spot, but not quite at a point that they can advance past the one game Wild Card Game.  If the Rockies make the playoffs though, this will be considered an extremely successful season in Colorado.

Fearless Prediction

A Colorado Rockies player will finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting.

Nolan Arenado is one of the best players in the game.  Ian Desmond has the potential to break out into a superstar at the plate.  One of these two, if not both, will finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting.  If the Rockies are to reach the heights I see them reaching this year, this is something that will have to happen.  Either way, the Rockies should be one of the big topics of conversation of the 2017 season.