2023 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

 #1

The Los Angeles Dodgers made news this offseason for not making much news.  Can they contend for a title in 2023 with their current roster?

2022 Predictions

#2 - 1st in NL West, lose in World Series

MIH - Cody Bellinger

MIP - Julio Urias

PTW - Michael Busch

2022 Results

#5 - 111-51, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Mookie Betts

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Julio Urias

The Dodgers are consistently one of the best regular season teams year after year, winning over 100 games for the 4th time in 5 seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season).  However, outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the regular season success hasn't produced any postseason results.  Adding insult to injury, they were eliminated from the playoffs by divisional rival San Diego in 2022.  Is it possible Dave Roberts is on the hot seat even with all that success?

Additions / Subtractions

The Dodgers had a very strange offseason for them in that they didn't make a splash.  While every other big market team was adding huge contracts and superstars to their payroll, the Dodgers instead watched Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Joey Gallo, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Craig Kimbrel walk away while Gavin Lux and Walker Buehler will miss the season with injuries.  With that kind of star power leaving, most of them were replaced internally or with short term deals.  New Dodgers include starter Noah Syndergaard, infielder Miguel Rojas, outfielder Jason Heyward, and DH J.D. Martinez.  Many speculate that the Dodgers didn't spend this offseason so they can offer a half a billion dollars to Shohei Ohtani next winter.

Most Important Hitter

Max Muncy

The Dodgers still have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the heart of their lineup, but a lineup is more than two players (just ask the Angels).  Max Muncy is one of those players that the Dodgers are really counting on to provide that depth.  The Dodgers unlocked something in Muncy when he joined the team in 2018 as he hit over 35 home runs in 2018, 2019, and 2021 while making the All Star team twice.  However, in 2022 Muncy took a step back, only hitting 21 home runs with an OPS+ of 97.  With Justin Turner's departure, Muncy is now the everyday third baseman, especially with second base not really an option anymore with the new shift ban.  If he returns to his 2021 form, that will go a long way in keeping the Dodger lineup moving.

Most Important Pitcher

Dustin May

Julio Urias emerged as an ace last season, and Clayton Kershaw is still around, however the biggest X-factor in the Dodger rotation is Dustin May.  At one point, May was one of the most promising prospects in all of baseball, but injuries have made it difficult for him to reach his potential.  He will have every opportunity in 2023 to show what he can do.  His stuff is still filthy so as long as he can stay healthy, May may be a prime breakout candidate this season.

Prospect to Watch

Miguel Vargas

The miracle of this run the Dodgers are on is they have been able to make the blockbuster trades and sign the big free agents while maintaining one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.  Ranked either 1st or 2nd (to the Orioles), the Dodgers currently have 7 prospects in the Top 100.  This organizational depth is going to be leaned on this season to help replace some of the departing star power, with several rookies getting Opening Day starts.  One of those is Miguel Vargas.  Ranked 37th in the Top 100, the 23 year old Cuban can play anywhere on the field, but will be looked to as the everyday second baseman this season.  Vargas is a pretty elite hitter so as long as he hits, the Dodgers will find a role for him.

2023 Prediction

1st in NL West, win World Series

There you have it!  My World Series pick!  I love what the Dodgers did (or didn't do) to get ready for this year.  There's something to the consistency and trusting the talent you have, especially finally allowing the young talent to truly get a chance to thrive at the big league level.  The sneakiest move of the whole offseason might be the trade for Miguel Rojas, especially after Gavin Lux's injury.  I don't see the Dodgers winning 111 games again this season.  In fact, I have them picked to have the worst record among the division champs and having to play through the Wild Card Round.  However, it just makes too much sense that the year no one is paying attention to them is the year they go all the way.  Also, can you imagine a Yankees/Dodgers World Series?  It's a marketing dream!

Fearless Prediction

Clayton Kershaw retires after this season.

Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers of this generation.  He is a 9 time All Star, a former MVP, won the pitching Triple Crown and 3 Cy Youngs.  He is also in his age 35 season and has been making a habit of signing 1 year contracts recently.  There have been rumblings that he has started questioning when it's time to call it a career each offseason.  I would imagine a full season World Series championship will be the perfect opportunity for Kershaw to ride off into the Cooperstown sunset.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #5

The Houston Astros went all the way and won the World Series in 2022.  Will they be able to make it back despite losing the reigning Cy Young winner?

2022 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

MIH - Kyle Tucker

MIP - Justin Verlander

PTW - Jeremy Pena

2022 Results

#1 - 106-56, 1st in AL West, won World Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Yordan Alvarez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Verlander

Here is exactly what I said about the Houston Astros before last season... "How many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  After the 2019 season, Gerrit Cole (3rd in team WAR) sign with the Yankees.  After the 2020 season, George Springer (team leader in WAR) signs with the Blue Jays.  After the 2021 season, Carlos Correa (team leader in WAR) signs with the Twins.  Somehow they keep excelling.  They have to be coming to the end of this magical run though."  Well, apparently not.  Thanks to rookie Jeremy Pena and the emergence of Yordan Alvarez, the Astros didn't really miss Correa at all.  Their 2022 World Series win was validation after the sign stealing scandal somewhat tainted the 2017 championship.

Additions / Subtractions

So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  This offseason it was reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander who signed with the Mets.  The only other subtractions were first baseman Yuli Gurriel and role players Aledmys Diaz and Trey Mancini.  Coming in to Houston to replace Gurriel is former MVP Jose Abreu.  The other thing to note here is thanks to a HBP in the WBC, Jose Altuve will be sidelined for the first two months of the season.

Most Important Hitter

Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena became a superstar last postseason after winning ALCS MVP as well as World Series MVP; not bad for a rookie who was replacing a face of the franchise.  However, many forget that he wasn't that great during the regular season.  He did win the Gold Glove, but his OPS+ was at 101, which is pretty much league average.  The Astros are entering 2023 thinking they have a star at shortstop.  If that's the case, Pena needs to show he can be more productive throughout the entire season this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez has been quietly dominant for Houston since his debut in 2018.  In 2022, everyone started to notice him as he posted a 137 ERA+ and finished in 5th in the Cy Young voting.  Now, Valdez is the undisputed ace of the staff.  It's a lot easier to have success when no one is paying attention.  Now, with no Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander or a healthy Lance McCullers Jr., Valdez is in the spotlight and expected to fill those shoes.  There has yet to be a challenge he hasn't been up for, but can he handle being the ace for an entire season?

Prospect to Watch

Hunter Brown

Ever since the Astros started this dominant run, their farm system has been pretty depleted through graduating top prospects and trades, however they always seem to have a guy ready each year to impact the big league team.  This year, that guy is Hunter Brown.  This right-handed starting pitcher is ranked #43 on the Top 100 and is the only player the Astros have in the Top 100.  One of the nice things about being a prospect in a successful system like the Astros is you get exposed to more sooner.  Brown got a chance to pitch in a few games at the end of last season, but he also made the postseason roster and pitched out of the bullpen in the ALDS and ALCS.  That experience should help him as he starts this season in the Astros rotation and appears ready to be their next mainstay.

2023 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  Well, the Astros are truly testing this theory again.  The players they have left have shown they know how to navigate the regular season and the postseason, but repeating is so difficult.  I see them winning the division again, but eventually everything catches up with them in the playoffs.  If this truly is what happens, it will be the first time since 2016 the Astros will not be appearing in the ALCS.  I don't see how that run could be repeated any time soon.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Dusty Baker retires at the end of the 2023 season.

Dusty Baker has been one of the best managers of the 21st century.  He has led the Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, and Astros over a 25 year managing career.  Last season, he finally got his World Series championship, a feat that had also eluded him during his playing career.  It would have made a lot of sense if he used that World Series victory to ride off into the sunset, but you get the temptation to see if you can do it again.  I could see coming up short in 2023 being a sign that it is time for the 73 year old to step away from the dugout and await his spot in Cooperstown.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: St. Louis Cardinals

 #1

The St. Louis Cardinals pulled off a blockbuster trade to man the hot corner for the foreseeable future.  Is that enough to get this back to elite?

2020 Predictions

#11 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Paul Goldschmidt

MIP - Miles Mikolas

PTW - Dylan Carlson

2020 Results

#12 - 30-28, 2nd in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

The Cardinals had a typical Cardinals season.  They were quiet enough that many people forgot about them, but they were still good enough to make the postseason and almost spoil the magical Padres in the Wild Card Round.  They were led in 2020 by Paul Goldschmidt, possibly the quietest of all of baseball's superstars, which makes him the perfect star for St. Louis.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cardinals really only made one move over the offseason, but it was a big one.  They pulled off the blockbuster trade that sent them third baseman Nolan Arenado from Colorado.  Outside of letting second baseman Kolten Wong sign with Milwaukee and trading outfielder Dexter Fowler to the Angels, the Cardinals didn't do much else other than get healthy.

Most Important Hitter

Paul DeJong

Entering his 5th season as the starting shortstop in St. Louis, Paul DeJong got out to a hot start to his career, finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year in 2017 and making his first All Star Team in 2019.  However, 2020 proved to be a struggle for DeJong.  If the Cardinals are going to have a dangerous and deep lineup, they need DeJong to bounce back and show he can get back to that All Star level.

Most Important Pitcher

Jack Flaherty

In 2020, Adam Wainwright emerged as the go to ace of the Cardinals' staff.  With Wainwright entering his age 39 season, he can't really be counted on to be that good again in 2021.  That means it is time for Jack Flaherty to emerge as the consistent dominant ace the Cardinals need.  He was outstanding in 2019, finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young voting, but 2020 was a struggle.  With some of the injuries the Cardinals are facing in their rotation to start the season, the 25 year old Flaherty needs to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, which is not a stretch considering his how good he has shown he can be.

Prospect to Watch

Dylan Carlson

When the Cardinals traded Dexter Fowler, they were basically announcing that the outfield would be super young and athletic.  Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill can be expected to be out there every day, but the best of the group might be Dylan Carlson.  Ranked the 14th best prospect in baseball, Carlson played in 35 games in 2020 with little success, but the Cardinals believe in him, and his tools show that he can be a star.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL Central, win World Series

Here are my World Series champions!  It is definitely an outside-the-box pick, but with the way the Cardinals always find a way to be better than anyone realized, and the add of Arenado, this team is going to surprise everyone.  Arenado and Goldschmidt are the perfect superstars to play in St. Louis, and they are going to become one of the best combos in any lineup in the league.  Every few years, the Cardinals emerge as one of the best teams in baseball, and they are due.  Also, can you imagine the storylines of a Tony La Russa vs. the Cardinals World Series?  And a World Series win would almost certainly send Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright off into retirement on top.  Perfect!

Fearless Prediction

Jack Flaherty wins the NL Cy Young Award.

Like I said, Jack Flaherty has the capability to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He is going to be the surprising star everybody knows from this team by the end of the season.  A Cy Young and a World Series ... sounds like a successful season to me.

2019 Pre-Season Profiles: #4 - #1

Well, we are a series into the 2019 season, and I am still a few teams away from finishing this pre-season project.  So I am going to bust out my last few in shortened format in one article.

#4

St. Louis Cardinals

Most Important Hitter: Marcel Ozuna

Most Important Pitcher: Jack Flaherty

Prospect to Watch: Dakota Hudson

2019 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLCS

Bold Prediction: Miles Mikolas will finish in the top 5 in NL Cy Young voting.

Of all the major splashes this offseason, the most underrated might be the move that landed the Cardinals the most underrated player of the last decade.  Paul Goldschmidt gives the Cards a presence in their clubhouse that puts them back in the elite.  St. Louis never feels like a trendy pick in the NL Central, but I think they surprise and steal it.  Ozuna was their big acquisition last year, and he needs to produce.  Flaherty and Hudson are some young guns in their rotation that should break out in 2019.  I see them getting a step away from the pennant before someone finally knocks them out.

#3

Houston Astros

Most Important Hitter: Carlos Correa

Most Important Pitcher: Collin McHugh

Prospect to Watch: Forrest Whitley

2019 Prediction: 1st in AL West, lose in ALCS

Bold Prediction: Gerrit Cole wins the AL Cy Young.

I wanted to say the Astros regress in 2019 and maybe even miss the playoffs, but they are just too talented.  Their lineup is stacked, even getting better with All Star Michael Brantley joining the outfield.  One of their keys this year is if Carlos Correa can stay healthy.  Their stud shortstop spent a lot of last year injured and is starting this year on the IL as well.  His success will help lead to greater success for the team.  Everyone knows the top of their rotation, but their depth took a hit this offseason when they didn't re-sign Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton, and Lance McCullers went down with Tommy John.  Collin McHugh spent last season in the bullpen because the rotation was out of room.  Now he is going to be counted on to be an innings eater in the back end of their rotation.  If some of their starters fail, look for Forrest Whitley to burst onto the scene and show why he is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

#2

Los Angeles Dodgers

Most Important Hitter: Corey Seager

Most Important Pitcher: Kenley Jansen

Prospect to Watch: Alex Verdugo

2019 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose in World Series

Bold Prediction: Brian Roberts will be fired after the season.

This is a fascinating team to me.  It is so hard to make three straight World Series, but I think they have to enter the season as the favorites to do it.  The health and production of Corey Seager will be key.  He is a backbone of their offense, and after missing all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, it will be interesting to see if he can get back to being the budding superstar.  There are a lot of question marks surrounding the rotation, especially the health of ace Clayton Kershaw.  However, without Kenley Jansen closing every important game, the starters don't matter.  His health scare from the offseason that required heart surgery has some questioning his health moving forward.  If he can be as dominant as he has been the last several years, they will have nothing to worry about.  Alex Verdugo has been on the verge of breaking out for a few years, but has been blocked by a loaded outfield.  Either he gets his opportunity or is traded for a starting pitcher mid-season.

#1

New York Yankees

Most Important Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton

Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton

Prospect to Watch: Jonathan Loaisiga

2019 Prediction: 1st in AL East, win World Series

Fearless Prediction: James Paxton finishes in the top 3 of the AL Cy Young voting.

To me, the New York Yankees are the most talented and best team in the league.  They have young phenoms combined with star veterans in their lineup, they have a deep and talented starting rotation (which is being tested at the start of the season with injuries), and they have the deepest and strongest bullpen in the league.  Look for Giancarlo Stanton to return to his form that led to an NL MVP.  Look for James Paxton to become a superstar.  As one of the sneaky best acquisitions of the season, look for Paxton to quickly become a superstar if he can have a healthy season.  They are the team best built for playoff success in 2019 and be the 3rd different team to defeat the Dodgers in the World Series in the last 3 seasons.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

In 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since their last World Series run in 1993.  Will they be able to go a step further in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

2015 Result: 93-69, 1st in AL East, lost in ALCS

I predicted 2015 would be the year the Blue Jays finally broke through and got back to the postseason.  I even had them losing to the Royals once they got there.  The problem was I had them losing in the wrong round.  Some late season trades really beefed up their lineup to make this big impact down the stretch.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

After being the most active team at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the Blue Jays had a fairly quiet offseason.  They lost David Price to free agency.  They traded Ben Revere, who had been acquired in one of the many 2015 deadline deals, to the Nats for reliever Drew Storen.  They also signed veteran lefty J.A. Happ to add depth to the rotation.  That was about it.  However, the formula was pretty good last year so they really didn't have much to change.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

Everyone was shocked last year when the Jays pulled off this trade for the best established shortstop in the game.  They had a formidable lineup before the trade when Jose Reyes was their shortstop.  Now, with Tulo joining Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of that lineup, they may have one of the best lineups top to bottom of the last decade.  There is only one problem with Tulowitzki: health.  He is now in his 11th season in the big leagues.  He has played over 140 games in a season only three times in his career.  Losing Price is a blow to their pitching.  They will have to outscore more teams than they want to.  To do that, they need a healthy Tulo adding to this elite lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

The hopes and dreams of the Blue Jays this season rest on the arm of Marcus Stroman.  He was set to be their ace in 2015 until he tore his ACL before the season even started.  This forced them to make a trade for a guy like David Price down the stretch.  Now that Price left, Stroman needs to be the elite arm that anchors this pitching staff moving forward.  He has the ability to do it.  The question is if this 25 year old is ready for it.  If the Jays are going to reach the heights they want to reach this year, he has to be great.

Player to Watch

Chad Girodo

The Blue Jays have a decent farm system, however most of their talent is still a few years off.  Only three players in their top 30 prospects on mlb.com are projected to be ready at some point this year.  The highest ranked, and most likely to have a big impact, is Chad Girodo.  If there is a weakness of the Blue Jays, it is their pitching.  Look for a rookie like Girodo, a crafty 25 year old lefty, to have a chance at some point this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Blue Jays may have lost some dude-ness from their rotation losing David Price, but with a full year from Stroman and Tulo, I see an offense that can outscore anybody and a pitching staff that won't miss Price as much as some people think.  Also, there still is another Trade Deadline coming up this year, and don't be surprised to see another deadline move for an arm.  I see the Jays getting one step further before they run into the buzz saw that will be the Giants' pitching in the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

This will be the last year the Blue Jays will make the playoffs for a decade.

The Blue Jays have a great core they have built over the last few years, but it is all about to fall apart.  Jose Bautista has already come out and said he will be on sale to the highest bidder when he becomes a free agent this winter.  Expect the same from Edwin Encarnacion, meaning neither of them are likely to come back.  Josh Donaldson is under contract through 2017, but with the way the Jays mishandled his contract negotiations this offseason, don't expect him to stay after that.  They have Tulo through 2020 if he can stay on the field.  This entire lineup they have built, one of the best lineups I can remember that actually works and produces, will be dismantled over the next few years.  Along with it will go any chance the Blue Jays have of being elite.  So enjoy it while it lasts.  This powerhouse has an expiration date.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants followed up their World Series win in 2014 by not making the playoffs in 2015.  They have won the World Series the last three even numbered years.  Can they do it again in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

2015 Result: 84-78, 2nd in NL West

The Giants had what could be considered a disappointing season in 2015, even though they finished over .500.  This is such a bizarre pattern they have established these last five seasons.  In 2010, they win the World Series.  In 2011, they don't make the playoffs.  In 2012, they win the World Series.  In 2013, they don't make the playoffs.  In 2014, they win the World Series.  In 2015, they don't make the playoffs.  I would love to see what would happen if they actually made the playoffs in an odd numbered year.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Giants went against what they normally do and had a fairly active offseason.  They added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to an already strong rotation, while adding Denard Span to the outfield.  They had few notable departures, most notable in name rather than impact to the club.  In bringing in Cueto and Samardzija, they let longtime giants Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum walk, while Tim Hudson retired.

Most Important Hitter

Hunter Pence

Part of what led to the Giants' struggles in 2015 was the injury to Hunter Pence that limited him to just 52 games.  Pence is a contributor on the field, but also a great chemistry guy.  He needs to be on the field for the Giants to have the kind of season they hope for.

Most Important Pitcher

Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last five seasons, but he had a terrible (by his standards) season in 2015.  This offseason he signed a big contract paying him as if last year didn't happen.  That is exactly what the Giants need him to be.  Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija can be one of the best top three in any rotation in the league, but Cueto and Samardzija both have to be better than last year.

Player to Watch

Josh Osich

The Giants have a fairly weak farm system.  However, when you have such a veteran lineup, there is little need for many rookies to have huge impacts.  With that said, here is one that will be on the Opening Day roster.  Josh Osich just barely stayed under the limit for service time to still be considered a rookie in 2016.  Look for him to have an impact as a left-handed specialist out of the Giants' bullpen this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL West, win World Series

Why not!  This pattern is ridiculous.  However, this prediction is less about that and more about the fact that the Giants might have their best team since this crazy run started.  Pitching has always been a strength of this team, but this is the best it has been since Lincecum was winning Cy Youngs.  Buster Posey is also the best catcher in baseball.  Complementary pieces like Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Duffy fill out a very deep lineup with few weaknesses.  Also, don't forget, they have what might be the greatest postseason performer of all time.  If they make the playoffs, be prepared to be MadBum'ed once again.  It seems inevitable.

Fearless Prediction

The San Francisco Giants come home with MVP, Cy Young, and World Series trophies.

This is a pretty tall order, but not out of the question.  Buster Posey is a contender for MVP every season, and Madison Bumgarner might actually show some of his freak dominance in the regular season after having a full offseason of rest.  This has only happened five times, and not since 1988.  It would be a crazy feat, but not something that should surprise anyone.