2023 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #5

The Houston Astros went all the way and won the World Series in 2022.  Will they be able to make it back despite losing the reigning Cy Young winner?

2022 Predictions

#7 - 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

MIH - Kyle Tucker

MIP - Justin Verlander

PTW - Jeremy Pena

2022 Results

#1 - 106-56, 1st in AL West, won World Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Yordan Alvarez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Verlander

Here is exactly what I said about the Houston Astros before last season... "How many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  After the 2019 season, Gerrit Cole (3rd in team WAR) sign with the Yankees.  After the 2020 season, George Springer (team leader in WAR) signs with the Blue Jays.  After the 2021 season, Carlos Correa (team leader in WAR) signs with the Twins.  Somehow they keep excelling.  They have to be coming to the end of this magical run though."  Well, apparently not.  Thanks to rookie Jeremy Pena and the emergence of Yordan Alvarez, the Astros didn't really miss Correa at all.  Their 2022 World Series win was validation after the sign stealing scandal somewhat tainted the 2017 championship.

Additions / Subtractions

So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  This offseason it was reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander who signed with the Mets.  The only other subtractions were first baseman Yuli Gurriel and role players Aledmys Diaz and Trey Mancini.  Coming in to Houston to replace Gurriel is former MVP Jose Abreu.  The other thing to note here is thanks to a HBP in the WBC, Jose Altuve will be sidelined for the first two months of the season.

Most Important Hitter

Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena became a superstar last postseason after winning ALCS MVP as well as World Series MVP; not bad for a rookie who was replacing a face of the franchise.  However, many forget that he wasn't that great during the regular season.  He did win the Gold Glove, but his OPS+ was at 101, which is pretty much league average.  The Astros are entering 2023 thinking they have a star at shortstop.  If that's the case, Pena needs to show he can be more productive throughout the entire season this year.

Most Important Pitcher

Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez has been quietly dominant for Houston since his debut in 2018.  In 2022, everyone started to notice him as he posted a 137 ERA+ and finished in 5th in the Cy Young voting.  Now, Valdez is the undisputed ace of the staff.  It's a lot easier to have success when no one is paying attention.  Now, with no Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander or a healthy Lance McCullers Jr., Valdez is in the spotlight and expected to fill those shoes.  There has yet to be a challenge he hasn't been up for, but can he handle being the ace for an entire season?

Prospect to Watch

Hunter Brown

Ever since the Astros started this dominant run, their farm system has been pretty depleted through graduating top prospects and trades, however they always seem to have a guy ready each year to impact the big league team.  This year, that guy is Hunter Brown.  This right-handed starting pitcher is ranked #43 on the Top 100 and is the only player the Astros have in the Top 100.  One of the nice things about being a prospect in a successful system like the Astros is you get exposed to more sooner.  Brown got a chance to pitch in a few games at the end of last season, but he also made the postseason roster and pitched out of the bullpen in the ALDS and ALCS.  That experience should help him as he starts this season in the Astros rotation and appears ready to be their next mainstay.

2023 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat?  Well, the Astros are truly testing this theory again.  The players they have left have shown they know how to navigate the regular season and the postseason, but repeating is so difficult.  I see them winning the division again, but eventually everything catches up with them in the playoffs.  If this truly is what happens, it will be the first time since 2016 the Astros will not be appearing in the ALCS.  I don't see how that run could be repeated any time soon.

Fearless Prediction

Manager Dusty Baker retires at the end of the 2023 season.

Dusty Baker has been one of the best managers of the 21st century.  He has led the Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, and Astros over a 25 year managing career.  Last season, he finally got his World Series championship, a feat that had also eluded him during his playing career.  It would have made a lot of sense if he used that World Series victory to ride off into the sunset, but you get the temptation to see if you can do it again.  I could see coming up short in 2023 being a sign that it is time for the 73 year old to step away from the dugout and await his spot in Cooperstown.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #13

The Houston Astros struggled in the 2020 regular season, barely making the playoffs, but once they were in they were a game away from making the World Series.  What will come next for one of the most successful teams of the last 5 years?

2020 Predictions

#6 - 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

MIH - Carlos Correa

MIP - Lance McCullers Jr.

PTW - Forrest Whitley

2020 Results

#16 - 29-31, 2nd in AL West, lost in ALCS

If any team benefited from the COVID layoff and no fans in 2020, it was the Houston Astros.  Coming off a huge scandal with sign stealing, by the time the season start in 2020, the narrative had changed and there were no fans to heckle them.  With all that said, the Astros struggled in the regular season, finishing below .500 and only making the playoffs because of the special 2020 rule that all second place finishers make the playoffs.  Their postseason run did show they know what to do when they get there though, losing in Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays.  So was 2020 a successful season?  Yes and no.

Additions / Subtractions

Everyone knew the core of this Astros team wouldn't be able to stay together forever.  At some point, when all these young players are ready to get paid, some were going to move on.  For the first time, this happened this offseason as George Springer, the team's best player in 2020, signed in free agency with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Outfielder Josh Reddick also is no longer on the roster.  Both spots the Astros chose to replace internally.  In terms of pitching, they brought in Jake Odorizzi late in the process to help compensate for some injuries suffered during Spring Training.  For a team that was loading up talent only a few years ago, the Astros seemed to have reached a point where they are just trying to maintain as much as possible.

Most Important Hitter

Jose Altuve

Many players in the Astros' lineup had lackluster shortened seasons in 2020, but no one struggled quite like Jose Altuve.  The former league MVP has earned the reputation as one of the best hitters in baseball, but 2020 led to a .219 average and a 71 OPS+, both career lows.  Could he have bounced back if given a full 162?  Maybe.  Could his production have dropped due to the sign stealing scandal?  Maybe.  He needs to bounce back in 2021, not only to show everyone his reputation was earned and not stolen, but also because the Astros need the bat to set the table at the top of their lineup.  Losing leadoff hitter George Springer leaves a huge hole in the Astros' lineup.  If Altuve gets back to doing Altuve things, it will go a long way to replacing that production.

Most Important Pitcher

Cristian Javier

The Astros had some pretty big seasons out of some unheralded young pitchers in their rotation, especially after ace Justin Verlander went down after Opening Day.  Between Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier, the Astros were able to round out a solid rotation alongside Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr.  This was shown particularly in the playoffs.  Now, the Astros are counting on them to repeat that production in 2021.  Framber Valdez broke a finger in his first Spring start and might miss the season.  This makes Cristian Javier that much more important.  Entering his age 24 season and coming off a 3rd place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, Javier will be counted on to have another strong season and become one of the aces of this staff.

Prospect to Watch

Pedro Leon

The Astros built this roster from the ground up.  When you do that as successfully as the Astros have done, you are going to go from a top farm system to a bad farm system.  That's what has happened here.  The Astros only have one Top 100 prospect in Forrest Whitley, who probably should have made his debut by now if it weren't for some injuries and suspensions.  Now he is down with Tommy John and will delay his debut even longer.  So let's talk about someone else that might actually play in 2021.  Pedro Leon is a Cuban defector that signed with the Astros just days before George Springer signed with the Blue Jays.  Now, the Astros are looking at this outfielder as Springer's possible replacement in centerfield.  If Miles Straw struggles in center, look for the 22 year old Leon to be given a shot sooner rather than later, even though he will only be playing his first season in the states.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL West

There are so many question marks surrounding this team in 2021.  Can the lineup be productive without George Springer?  How much does Zack Greinke have left in the tank?  Can the kids in the rotation repeat their strong 2020 seasons?  Will Yordan Alvarez's knee hold up this season?  Will the Astros make a decision about Carlos Correa during his contract year?  And most importantly, how will the roster react to actually having to deal with fans for the first time since they were punished for the sign stealing scandal?  How will they react to watching their World Series winning manager walk into Houston wearing a Detroit Tigers jersey?  Could the Astros make the playoffs this year?  Absolutely.  Could they win the division?  Sure.  Could they finish in 3rd or 4th place in the division?  Not impossible.  There are just too many questions to predict them to do too much.  All I have to say is the rest of the league is hoping they stay out of the postseason.  No matter how their season goes, last season showed they are always dangerous in the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Astros three core players left is playing their last season as an Astro.

Carlos Correa is entering his contract year and will be looking for a big pay day.  Jose Altuve is getting paid top dollar but is coming off a bad season.  Alex Bregman also struggled in 2020, but already has a sizable contract.  The Astros want to re-sign Correa, but will it cost them one of the other stars on their team?  I think either Correa goes elsewhere or they find a way to move on from one of their other stars.  This season has the potential to show the Astros they need to start to deepen their talent pool and roster instead of invest in the few left from their World Series core.  So many teams have copied the Astros' blueprint of success over the last several years.  Now they are going to be the trend setters on how maintain once everyone needs to be paid.  Or is it worth maintaining?  Either way, it will be fascinating to see what they do.

2019 Pre-Season Profiles: #4 - #1

Well, we are a series into the 2019 season, and I am still a few teams away from finishing this pre-season project.  So I am going to bust out my last few in shortened format in one article.

#4

St. Louis Cardinals

Most Important Hitter: Marcel Ozuna

Most Important Pitcher: Jack Flaherty

Prospect to Watch: Dakota Hudson

2019 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLCS

Bold Prediction: Miles Mikolas will finish in the top 5 in NL Cy Young voting.

Of all the major splashes this offseason, the most underrated might be the move that landed the Cardinals the most underrated player of the last decade.  Paul Goldschmidt gives the Cards a presence in their clubhouse that puts them back in the elite.  St. Louis never feels like a trendy pick in the NL Central, but I think they surprise and steal it.  Ozuna was their big acquisition last year, and he needs to produce.  Flaherty and Hudson are some young guns in their rotation that should break out in 2019.  I see them getting a step away from the pennant before someone finally knocks them out.

#3

Houston Astros

Most Important Hitter: Carlos Correa

Most Important Pitcher: Collin McHugh

Prospect to Watch: Forrest Whitley

2019 Prediction: 1st in AL West, lose in ALCS

Bold Prediction: Gerrit Cole wins the AL Cy Young.

I wanted to say the Astros regress in 2019 and maybe even miss the playoffs, but they are just too talented.  Their lineup is stacked, even getting better with All Star Michael Brantley joining the outfield.  One of their keys this year is if Carlos Correa can stay healthy.  Their stud shortstop spent a lot of last year injured and is starting this year on the IL as well.  His success will help lead to greater success for the team.  Everyone knows the top of their rotation, but their depth took a hit this offseason when they didn't re-sign Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton, and Lance McCullers went down with Tommy John.  Collin McHugh spent last season in the bullpen because the rotation was out of room.  Now he is going to be counted on to be an innings eater in the back end of their rotation.  If some of their starters fail, look for Forrest Whitley to burst onto the scene and show why he is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

#2

Los Angeles Dodgers

Most Important Hitter: Corey Seager

Most Important Pitcher: Kenley Jansen

Prospect to Watch: Alex Verdugo

2019 Prediction: 1st in NL West, lose in World Series

Bold Prediction: Brian Roberts will be fired after the season.

This is a fascinating team to me.  It is so hard to make three straight World Series, but I think they have to enter the season as the favorites to do it.  The health and production of Corey Seager will be key.  He is a backbone of their offense, and after missing all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, it will be interesting to see if he can get back to being the budding superstar.  There are a lot of question marks surrounding the rotation, especially the health of ace Clayton Kershaw.  However, without Kenley Jansen closing every important game, the starters don't matter.  His health scare from the offseason that required heart surgery has some questioning his health moving forward.  If he can be as dominant as he has been the last several years, they will have nothing to worry about.  Alex Verdugo has been on the verge of breaking out for a few years, but has been blocked by a loaded outfield.  Either he gets his opportunity or is traded for a starting pitcher mid-season.

#1

New York Yankees

Most Important Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton

Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton

Prospect to Watch: Jonathan Loaisiga

2019 Prediction: 1st in AL East, win World Series

Fearless Prediction: James Paxton finishes in the top 3 of the AL Cy Young voting.

To me, the New York Yankees are the most talented and best team in the league.  They have young phenoms combined with star veterans in their lineup, they have a deep and talented starting rotation (which is being tested at the start of the season with injuries), and they have the deepest and strongest bullpen in the league.  Look for Giancarlo Stanton to return to his form that led to an NL MVP.  Look for James Paxton to become a superstar.  As one of the sneaky best acquisitions of the season, look for Paxton to quickly become a superstar if he can have a healthy season.  They are the team best built for playoff success in 2019 and be the 3rd different team to defeat the Dodgers in the World Series in the last 3 seasons.