Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts

Saturday, March 4, 2023

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Kansas City Royals

 #25
The Kansas City Royals are getting close to being able to compete again after tearing down the roster following their World Series win in 2015.  Is 2023 the year they break out an be relevant again?


#21 - 4th in AL Central
MIH - Salvador Perez
MIP - Zack Greinke
PTW - Bobby Witt Jr.

2022 Results
#26 - 65-97, 5th in AL Central
Highest WAR (Position) - Michael A. Taylor
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Brady Singer
The 2022 Royals was all about the youth movement.  It saw the debut of phenom Bobby Witt Jr., who played 150 and showed he truly is the budding superstar everyone thought he would be.  Brady Singer had a breakout season and showed he can be the ace everyone thought he would be.  Veterans Salvador Perez and Zack Greinke anchored the team and provided the necessary veteran leadership.  The problem is the rest of the roster wasn't up to par.  However, there were promising signs for the future for sure.


Additions / Subtractions
After selling off several veterans at the Trade Deadline last year like Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, and Andrew Benintendi, the Royals had a typical Royals offseason by not paying their own veterans hitting free agency and instead signing some interesting veterans with tons of upside.  So their best player (in terms of WAR) in Michael A. Taylor signed elsewhere, and Adalberto Mondesi was traded to Boston.  Coming in are starter Jordan Lyles and reliever Aroldis Chapman.  The one exception was ageless wonder Zack Greinke who is still going strong and should definitely finish his career in Kansas City.  The other major change for the Royals was the change at manager, with Matt Quatraro taking over for Mike Matheny.


Most Important Hitter
Vinnie Pasquatino
Although everyone entered the season fascinated by Bobby Witt Jr., the most popular player by the end of the season might have been fellow rookie Vinnie Pasquatino.  Nicknamed "The Italian Nightmare," Pasquatino showed his pure hitting skills could translate to the big leagues, batting .295 with 10 homers, 26 RBI's with a 135 OPS+ over 72 games.  This year, he will be counted on as a middle of the order bat despite not even having half a season of big league experience under his belt.  Witt Jr. will impact the game no matter what because of his athleticism.  If the Royals are going to take a step forward this year, it is going to be because of Vinnie Pasquatino.


Most Important Pitcher
Daniel Lynch
With Brady Singer emerging as the ace of the Royals, the focus goes to who will be providing the depth behind him.  Enter Daniel Lynch.  Entering his age 26 season (just like Singer), Lynch will be starting his 2nd full season in the big leagues.  Last season was not necessarily successful, as he posted a 4-13 record with a 5.13 ERA and an 80 ERA+ in 27 starts.  The Royals will be looking for him to take a step forward similar to what Singer did last year.  If he does, the Royals have a formidable right/left, 1/2 punch at the top of their rotation for the foreseeable future.


Prospect to Watch
Drew Waters
The Royals overall farm system took a hit last year with players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquatino graduating from the list.  Now they only boast one Top 100 prospect, and he is still probably a couple years away from the big leagues.  With that said, the Royals do have some fascinating prospects that could provide real impact at the big league level this season.  One of those in Drew Waters.  A former 2nd round pick of the Braves, the Royals traded for Waters mid-season for a draft pick.  Playing 32 games for the Royals in 2022, Waters barely maintained his prospect status but also showed some good production, with a 124 OPS+.  Now the Royals will go into Opening Day 2023 with Waters as their centerfielder, and he will be given every opportunity this season to show he is their centerfielder of the future.


2023 Prediction
4th in AL Central
The Royals are the start of a section on these power rankings of teams that are still rebuilding but are very close to breaking out in a big way.  The AL Central is not as strong as other divisions, their youth movement is really starting to show it's worth paying attention to, and it shouldn't shock anyone if the Royals end up close to .500 by the end of the season.


Fearless Prediction
Bobby Witt Jr. will be the starting shortstop for the AL in the All Star Game in 2023.
He has all the potential to be one of the game's next superstars.  He is dynamic young player that can do it all.  Last year he just scratched the surface.  If he takes the next step, look for him to be the talk of the league and win a fan vote for the best shortstop in the American League.  The Royals fans have shown in the past that they will come out in droves to vote for their stars when they have one to vote for.  It could make the Mid-Summer Classic a coming-out party for Bobby Witt Jr. in a similar way it was for Julio Rodriguez in 2022.


Monday, March 22, 2021

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Houston Astros

 #13
The Houston Astros struggled in the 2020 regular season, barely making the playoffs, but once they were in they were a game away from making the World Series.  What will come next for one of the most successful teams of the last 5 years?

#6 - 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS
MIH - Carlos Correa
MIP - Lance McCullers Jr.
PTW - Forrest Whitley

2020 Results
#16 - 29-31, 2nd in AL West, lost in ALCS
If any team benefited from the COVID layoff and no fans in 2020, it was the Houston Astros.  Coming off a huge scandal with sign stealing, by the time the season start in 2020, the narrative had changed and there were no fans to heckle them.  With all that said, the Astros struggled in the regular season, finishing below .500 and only making the playoffs because of the special 2020 rule that all second place finishers make the playoffs.  Their postseason run did show they know what to do when they get there though, losing in Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays.  So was 2020 a successful season?  Yes and no.

Additions / Subtractions
Everyone knew the core of this Astros team wouldn't be able to stay together forever.  At some point, when all these young players are ready to get paid, some were going to move on.  For the first time, this happened this offseason as George Springer, the team's best player in 2020, signed in free agency with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Outfielder Josh Reddick also is no longer on the roster.  Both spots the Astros chose to replace internally.  In terms of pitching, they brought in Jake Odorizzi late in the process to help compensate for some injuries suffered during Spring Training.  For a team that was loading up talent only a few years ago, the Astros seemed to have reached a point where they are just trying to maintain as much as possible.

Most Important Hitter
Jose Altuve
Many players in the Astros' lineup had lackluster shortened seasons in 2020, but no one struggled quite like Jose Altuve.  The former league MVP has earned the reputation as one of the best hitters in baseball, but 2020 led to a .219 average and a 71 OPS+, both career lows.  Could he have bounced back if given a full 162?  Maybe.  Could his production have dropped due to the sign stealing scandal?  Maybe.  He needs to bounce back in 2021, not only to show everyone his reputation was earned and not stolen, but also because the Astros need the bat to set the table at the top of their lineup.  Losing leadoff hitter George Springer leaves a huge hole in the Astros' lineup.  If Altuve gets back to doing Altuve things, it will go a long way to replacing that production.

Most Important Pitcher
Cristian Javier
The Astros had some pretty big seasons out of some unheralded young pitchers in their rotation, especially after ace Justin Verlander went down after Opening Day.  Between Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier, the Astros were able to round out a solid rotation alongside Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr.  This was shown particularly in the playoffs.  Now, the Astros are counting on them to repeat that production in 2021.  Framber Valdez broke a finger in his first Spring start and might miss the season.  This makes Cristian Javier that much more important.  Entering his age 24 season and coming off a 3rd place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting, Javier will be counted on to have another strong season and become one of the aces of this staff.

Prospect to Watch
Pedro Leon
The Astros built this roster from the ground up.  When you do that as successfully as the Astros have done, you are going to go from a top farm system to a bad farm system.  That's what has happened here.  The Astros only have one Top 100 prospect in Forrest Whitley, who probably should have made his debut by now if it weren't for some injuries and suspensions.  Now he is down with Tommy John and will delay his debut even longer.  So let's talk about someone else that might actually play in 2021.  Pedro Leon is a Cuban defector that signed with the Astros just days before George Springer signed with the Blue Jays.  Now, the Astros are looking at this outfielder as Springer's possible replacement in centerfield.  If Miles Straw struggles in center, look for the 22 year old Leon to be given a shot sooner rather than later, even though he will only be playing his first season in the states.

2021 Prediction
2nd in AL West
There are so many question marks surrounding this team in 2021.  Can the lineup be productive without George Springer?  How much does Zack Greinke have left in the tank?  Can the kids in the rotation repeat their strong 2020 seasons?  Will Yordan Alvarez's knee hold up this season?  Will the Astros make a decision about Carlos Correa during his contract year?  And most importantly, how will the roster react to actually having to deal with fans for the first time since they were punished for the sign stealing scandal?  How will they react to watching their World Series winning manager walk into Houston wearing a Detroit Tigers jersey?  Could the Astros make the playoffs this year?  Absolutely.  Could they win the division?  Sure.  Could they finish in 3rd or 4th place in the division?  Not impossible.  There are just too many questions to predict them to do too much.  All I have to say is the rest of the league is hoping they stay out of the postseason.  No matter how their season goes, last season showed they are always dangerous in the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction
One of the Astros three core players left is playing their last season as an Astro.
Carlos Correa is entering his contract year and will be looking for a big pay day.  Jose Altuve is getting paid top dollar but is coming off a bad season.  Alex Bregman also struggled in 2020, but already has a sizable contract.  The Astros want to re-sign Correa, but will it cost them one of the other stars on their team?  I think either Correa goes elsewhere or they find a way to move on from one of their other stars.  This season has the potential to show the Astros they need to start to deepen their talent pool and roster instead of invest in the few left from their World Series core.  So many teams have copied the Astros' blueprint of success over the last several years.  Now they are going to be the trend setters on how maintain once everyone needs to be paid.  Or is it worth maintaining?  Either way, it will be fascinating to see what they do.


Saturday, March 16, 2019

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#21

The Arizona Diamondbacks finished just over .500 in 2018, but watched three of their best players leave over the offseason.  Will their departure help the D'Backs take a step forward in 2019, or will they take a step back?

2018 Predictions
4th in NL West
This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

2018 Results
82-80, 3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks followed up a playoff run in 2017 with a solid season in 2018.  Although they did not make the playoffs, the two teams ahead of them in the division did.  Through all that, they continued to be competitive through the ups and downs of the season.  Although there were several rumors, Zack Greinke is still on the roster even if the D'Backs may have wanted to move him.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason, the Diamondbacks decided to walk a fine line between starting a full rebuild and going for it all this season.  In terms of WAR, four of the team's top eight players from last season are no longer on the roster.  A.J. Pollock, Clay Buchholz, and Patrick Corbin moved on via free agency while the face of the franchise, Paul Goldschmidt, was traded to the Cardinals.  Very little was brought back in return.  Catcher Alex Avila, second baseman Wilmer Flores, and centerfielder Adam Jones were signed in free agency.  Starter Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly were brought in as part of the Goldschmidt deal.  Needless to say, the production in return is not looking like it will match the production brought back.

Most Important Hitter
Ketel Marte

In what was originally billed as a trade that exchanged Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker with the Mariners, the secondary pieces of that trade have quickly become the most productive.  For the Mariners, that player was Mitch Haniger.  For the Diamondbacks, that player was Ketel Marte.  As the D'Backs second baseman last season, Ketel posted a 3.3 WAR season, making him their fifth best player behind Goldschmidt, Corbin, Greinke, and David Peralta.  In 2019, the Diamondbacks are looking to use Marte's athleticism a little more.  At first, he was slated to be their starting centerfielder.  Now, with Adam Jones on the roster, it is looking like he will be more of a super utility guy.  With the loss of Pollock and Goldschmidt, Marte will be an important piece for his speed and versatility.

Most Important Pitcher
Zack Greinke

When Zack Greinke signed his huge free agent deal in Arizona in 2016, it was going to be really hard for him to live up to the dollar amount now attached to him.  However, he has done about as good of a job as he could.  In his three seasons in Arizona, Greinke has posted an ERA+ of 102, 147, and 135 even though his velocity has taken a dip.  However, he is entering his age 35 season with three years left on his huge deal.  Realistically, the Diamondbacks hope he pitches well enough that they could unload his high price tag for a decent return.  However, they probably will not find the suitor they want.  That means they just need to hope he stays productive enough to lead the rotation.

Prospect to Watch
Taylor Widener

As a part of the trade that brought Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks, one of the other pieces to go to the desert was Taylor Widener, a 24 year old hard-throwing right handed pitcher.  A former 12th round pick by the Yankees, Widener has value in both the rotation and the bullpen.  After dominating AA in 2018, he should start the season with a great opportunity in AAA.  If that goes well, he should be one of the first options if a rotation spot opens up.  If a spot doesn't open, he could help bolster a bullpen that lost a few pieces from last season.

2019 Prediction
4th in NL West

Considering everything they lost, it would be impossible for the Diamondbacks not to take a step back.  With that said, they should be fun to watch.  They still have solid pitching without Corbin.  They should still have a solid offense without Goldschmidt and Pollock.  There should be some success that might even keep them on the periphery of the Wild Card race for a little while.  However, the Diamondbacks are not looking at 2019.  Some mild success will not convince the Diamondbacks to sacrifice some future success to make a run this season.

Fearless Prediction
The Diamondbacks will get more success out of centerfield this season than A.J. Pollock will give the Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are planning to go with a combination of Ketel Marte and Adam Jones in centerfield this season.  Marte has the chance to be a rising star, and Adam Jones is one of the most productive and consistent centerfielders of the last decade.  In six full seasons in the big leagues, A.J. Pollock has only played more the 113 games twice.  So the Diamondbacks replaced injuries with consistency and durability.  When Pollock plays, he is one of the best.  However, I have a feeling the Diamondbacks are not going to regret letting Pollock move on.

Saturday, April 7, 2018

2018 MLB Pre-Season Profiles: #15-11


These are the teams I am predicting will just miss the playoffs in 2018.  See who gets left out.

#15
Arizona Diamondbacks

Most Important Hitter: David Peralta
Most Important Pitcher: Robbie Ray
Prospect to Watch: Taylor Clarke
2018 Prediction: 4th in NL West
Bold Prediction: This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

The Diamondbacks were a surprise playoff team in 2017, but they were propelled there by an other-worldly finish by J.D. Martinez.  Their biggest mistake was not adequately replacing him.  Steven Souza, Jr. is good, but not as good as J.D.  They will need increased production out of guys like David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, and Yasmany Tomas (who is currently in AAA) to pick up the slack.  Robbie Ray needs to repeat his All Star performance in 2018 to solidify a rotation headed by an aging Zack Greinke.  I could see the D-Backs moving on from him after this season to take the next step forward.


#14
Seattle Mariners

Most Important Hitter: Mike Zunino
Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton
Prospect to Watch: Max Povse
2018 Prediction: 3rd in AL West
Bold Prediction: Ichiro will be released by Memorial Day.

The Mariners have the longest playoff drought in professional sports, having last made the playoffs in 2001 when Ichiro was a rookie.  They have a shot at making it this year, but it all comes down to health.  James Paxton can be one of the best aces in the league if he can stay on the field.  King Felix can still be the King if he can stay healthy.  Mike Zunino finally showed off his bat in 2017, but needs to repeat the performance (instead, he is currently on the DL).  If healthy, they can compete with almost any team in the league.  Staying healthy will be a challenge though.  Ichiro was brought in because of their injuries (and a great story), but I don't see him lasting long at 44 years old.


#13
San Francisco Giants

Most Important Hitter: Andrew McCutchen
Most Important Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner
Prospect to Watch: Steven Duggar
2018 Prediction: 3rd in NL West
Bold Prediction: Half of the Giants' Opening Day roster will not be on the roster Opening Day 2019.

The Giants decided to take their aging roster and double down by adding more veterans (Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria) to try and make another run at the playoffs.  They are very interesting because of this.  If these two are able to rekindle some of their glory day magic, then the Giants will be a formidable foe this year.  If not, they will once again be disappointing.  Their farm system is terrible, and I could easily see them blowing up the roster at the end of the season if 2018 doesn't result in a postseason run.


#12
St. Louis Cardinals

Most Important Hitter: Tommy Pham
Most Important Pitcher: Michael Wacha
Prospect to Watch: Alex Reyes
2018 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central
Bold Prediction: The Cardinals will make at least one blockbuster trade at the Trade Deadline.

The Cardinals are not used to missing the playoffs, yet they have now missed the postseason two years in a row.  I am predicting this season will make it three.  They remade their outfield with Tommy Pham as the centerpiece, but he has fluke written all over him.  They have an ace in Carlos Martinez, but a guy like Michael Wacha needs to step up to give the rotation depth.  They lucked out by signing Greg Holland on Opening Day to anchor their bullpen, but it is still thin.  There are just too many questions.  One thing they do have is a lot of major league ready talent in the minors.  This is why they will be making a trade or two this year to try and turn around what could be a disappointing season for the Cardinals fans with such high standards.


#11
Minnesota Twins

Most Important Hitter: Byron Buxton
Most Important Pitcher: Fernando Rodney
Prospect to Watch: Nick Gordon
2018 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central
Bold Prediction: Byron Buxton will start in centerfield in the All Star Game.

The best team to miss the playoffs in 2018 will be the Twins.  They made a miraculous turnaround from worst team in the league to the Wild Card last season.  Now they will try and stay there.  A lot of offseason moves have really improved this roster.  Relying on Rodney to anchor your bullpen is stressful.  Buxton will be a superstar by the end of the season.  They will just come up a little short.

Stay tuned for the playoff teams!

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#24

The Arizona Diamondbacks won the offseason before the 2016 season, which led to a disappointing season.  Will 2017 be more successful?

My 2016 Predictions
3rd in NL West
The Diamondbacks starting centerfielder on August 1st would not be on the Opening Day roster.

2016 Results
69-93, 4th in NL West
In years past, I have overreacted to teams having an amazing offseason.  I tried to be a little more realistic, but they underwhelmed even my modest expectations.  The Diamondbacks did not have a good season in 2016 which ended up costing manager Chip Hale his job.  This was partially because of the injury to AJ Pollock that occurred in the last few days of Spring Training that kept him out until September.  This led to my Fearless Prediction, which was days after the Pollock injury while the team was still figuring out how they were going to replace their star.  Sure enough, in the August 1st game, where the Washington Nationals beat the D-Backs 14-1, the centerfielder for the Diamondbacks was veteran Michael Bourn, who was picked up mid-season.  Prediction achieved!

Additions / Subtractions
The first addition to mention is first-time manager Torey Lovullo, who has spent the last four seasons as the bench coach for the Red Sox.  Outside of that, the only other moves were collecting former Mariners Chris Iannetta, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Fernando Rodney in free agency, as well as making one of the most intriguing trades of the offseason.  The D-Backs acquired Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte from the Mariners for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger.  Rarely do you see trades like this that exchange major contributors to the big league roster.

Most Important Hitter
AJ Pollock
After seeing the collapse of the Diamondbacks' season after AJ Pollock's freak injury in 2016, it showed just how valuable Pollock is to the success of this team.  In 2015, Pollock was an All Star while also winning a Gold Glove playing in 157 games.  However, it was also the only full season he has played in his career.  There is a big question whether he can stay healthy.  If he can, he can be one of the best centerfielders in the game.  That's a big if.

Most Important Pitcher
Shelby Miller
One of the other factors that led to the Diamondbacks' disappointing season in 2016 was the pitching staff.  Zack Greinke came back down to Earth, however the most disappointing by far was Shelby Miller.  In the offseason, the D-Backs had traded several prospects to the Braves for Miller, including former #1 overall draft pick and consensus 2017 preseason Rookie of the Year Dansby Swanson.  How did Miller repay them?  He had an injury-plagued 2016 season that led to only 101 innings pitched in 20 starts.  Even when he was healthy, he was not good, earning a 3-12 record with a 6.15 ERA.  You really can't get much worse.  If the Diamondbacks are going to have success moving forward, it needs to start with their pitching.  Greinke will bounce back, and Taijuan Walker will help, but Shelby Miller has to produce in a way that will start to justify the trade that brought him there.

Player to Watch
Matt Koch
When you consider how bad a trade like the Miller-Swanson trade is looking right now, it just adds insult to injury to see that the Diamondbacks currently have no prospects in baseball's Top 100.  The player most likely to have an impact in 2017 is pitcher Matt Koch.  He is not the most heralded prospect (only #17 in the D-Backs system), but he showed success in limited time in the big leagues last year.  He can start or work in relief while he tries to find a role for this ball club.

2017 Prediction
4th in NL West
There are just too many question marks, and too difficult of a division, for the Diamondbacks to make any strides forward this year.  I think they are heading in the right direction with some of the moves they have made, but too much has to go perfect for them to crack the top three of this division.

Fearless Prediction
Zack Geinke will be traded by this time next year.
Greinke was the surprise prize the Diamondbacks won in last year's offseason.  However, he was to anchor an up-and-coming roster getting ready to compete.  It's looking more and more like this roster is closer to rebuilding than competing.  If that is the case, the last thing they need is a 33 year old starter making $30 million per year.  They could make great strides in rebuilding their depleted farm system if they can find a taker for their high-priced ace.  I think it happens

Sunday, April 3, 2016

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks had one of the most surprising and active offseasons of any team in baseball.  Will it lead to greater success in 2016?

Last Season
My 2015 Predictions: 5th in NL West
2015 Result: 79-83, 3rd in NL West
The D-Backs were one of the quiet surprises of 2015.  They kept their record right around .500 thanks to strong hitting from AJ Pollock and perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.  If it is possible for a team to have one of the best players in baseball, over-achieve on expectations, and no one notice, the Diamondbacks pulled it off in 2015.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Arizona shocked the baseball world this offseason.  Nobody saw it coming.  Of course, I am referring to the new Diamondback uniforms.  No, just kidding!  Zack Greinke!!!  Would he sign with the Dodgers?  The Giants?  In about 12 hours, the D-Backs went from being irrelevant in the sweepstakes to signing the prize of the offseason.  They did not stop there either.  If they were getting Greinke, they were going all in.  They traded for starter Shelby Miller, willing to give up their number one draft pick, Dansby Swanson, to get him.  Obviously, the Diamondbacks believe that baseball right now is highly over-valuing prospects.  They were willing to go get their guy, and no one was untouchable.  They then traded for Jean Segura and signed Tyler Clippard to round out the renovation of their team.

Most Important Hitter
Yasmany Tomas
Part of that Shelby Miller deal was also Ender Inciarte, a quality outfielder that gave them good production in 2015.  Then, in the last Spring Training game, AJ Pollock breaks his elbow and might be out for the entire season.  This puts a lot of pressure on a guy like Yasmany Tomas.  Tomas was signed last year as a potential Cuban superstar.  He was productive, but far less than a superstar in his first year in the big leagues.  With no Inciarte and Pollock, they need Tomas to take a huge step forward and help lengthen this lineup that all of a sudden has a few holes.

Most Important Pitcher
Patrick Corbin
The Diamondbacks have a brand new top two of their rotation with Greinke and Miller.  However, the ace of this staff at one point was Patrick Corbin.  He was an All Star in 2013 and poised to progress into a top pitcher in the game.  Then Tommy John surgery before the 2014 season put him out for a year and a half.  He pitched all right in his limited time in 2015, but now he is two years removed from his surgery and should be close to 100% now.  If he is, this rotation can be one of the best in all of baseball.

Player to Watch
Archie Bradley
The Diamondbacks seemed to have sold most of their top prospects over the offseason to improve the team right now, however they had the depth in their system to work with.  They have several player ready to produce now, with several (Brandon Drury, Socrates Brito) making the Opening Day roster.  they also have several pitchers ready to join the rotation behind Greinke, Miller, and Corbin.  Archie Bradley made his big league debut last season with mediocre results, but he should be ready to go as soon as there is a spot for him.  Watch for Bradley and fellow phenom Braden Shipley to make an impact on this team at some point this season.  Both would probably be in the rotation to start the year if it weren't for the active offseason.

2016 Prediction
3rd in NL West
I made this prediction before the Pollock injury, but now I am even more sure of it.  The Diamondbacks are definitely a much better team this year.  They have improved in so many areas.  However, I think it will take a year for them to truly fulfill their potential.  I was really big on the Padres last year, and it blew up in my face.  This is a different situation because I think the D-Backs are committed to this plan long term where the Padres gave up by July.  They will be improved in 2016 and finish over .500, but the top of the division is too hard to crack ... yet.

Fearless Prediction
The Diamondbacks' starting centerfielder on August 1st is not currently on the roster.
It looks like the Diamondbacks did not have much of a contingency plan when AJ Pollock went down the other day.  Their current plan is to move infielder Chris Owings, who hasn't played the outfield since high school, to centerfield.  They also have rookie Socrates Brito that might see some time there, but this looks like a situation the front office will try and remedy in another way after not too much time.  I wonder what it would take for them to bring back Ender Inciarte...