2019 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

#26

The Texas Rangers hit the reset button over the offseason this year.  Will the new faces in Arlington bring about more success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in AL West

Cole Hamels will be traded before the end of the season.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in AL West

The Rangers did not have as strong of a season as I expected them to have.  They struggled in many ways, including being in an extremely strong division in 2018.  Cole Hamels did indeed get moved to the Cubs at the Trade Deadline, making that a wasted deal for the Rangers.  However, the 2018 season in Texas will be remembered as the farewell tour for Adrian Beltre, who retired once the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

There wasn't much turnover in the Rangers' lineup going into 2019.  Veteran Asdrubal Cabrera replaces Beltre at third base, and Jeff Mathis goes behind the plate to replace Robinson Chirinos.  The pitching staff had much more change, with Mike Minor being the only returning starter.  Gone are Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, and Matt Moore.  In their place, the Rangers have Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, and Shelby Miller.  The bullpen had some big turnover as well, with Keone Kela, Alex Claudio, and Jake Diekman moving on.  With all these changes, possibly the biggest change is Chris Woodward taking over as manager from Jeff Banister.

Most Important Hitter

Elvis Andrus

It wasn't that long ago that the Rangers were playing in the World Series.  However, the only player remaining from those great Ranger years is shortstop Elvis Andrus.  He has already been in the league for 10 years even though he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has become the grizzled veteran of the team and continues to be a cornerstone of what the Rangers want to do.  However, Andrus had a bad 2018, posting only a 1.7 WAR and the lowest OPS+ since 2010.  Andrus is only halfway through an 8 year contract, which means he will be paid by the Rangers through 2023.  If he is going to earn the second half of this contract, he has to play a lot better than he did last season.  If he is going to be the veteran leader the Rangers need him to be, he has to be a leader with his play.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Leclerc

Relievers can be so up and down from season to season.  However, the Rangers are hoping Jose Leclerc's 2018 season gets repeated over and over again.  Leclerc had one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in 2018, posting a 1.56 ERA in 59 games, averaging 13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings.  As a setup man, Leclerc posted the fourth best WAR on the Rangers' roster in 2018, and was named one of the ten best relievers right now on MLB Network's yearly countdown.  With so many bullpen arms moving on this offseason, Leclerc is now the closer and will now have much more expected of him.  If he can continue his dominance from last year, he will be the anchor this bullpen will need to be effective in 2019.

Prospect to Watch

Jonathan Hernandez

The Rangers have a pretty good farm system, but most of their top prospects are at least a year or two away.  Their highest prospect that has a chance to impact the big league club this year is starting pitcher Jonathan Hernandez.  The Rangers' 5th ranked prospect, Hernandez is a 22 year old righty with a strong fastball and a good slider.  He struggles a little with command, but if he puts it all together, there is a good chance he starts games for the Rangers before the end of the season, especially considering how old the starting rotation is slated to be to start the season.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL West

The Rangers are headed in the right direction.  They are riding a line few teams attempt anymore.  They are rebuilding and waiting for their farm system to pay off while also featuring enough veterans and big league talent to be interesting this year.  They will end up in the cellar again simply because of the strength of this division.  The AL West has become one of the strongest in baseball, which will lead to rookie manager Chris Woodward having a bit of a struggle in his first season.

Fearless Prediction

No pitcher for the Rangers will throw over 150 innings in 2019.

New manager Chris Woodward is a sabermetric guy, coming over from the Dodgers.  One of the goals of managers like this is to limit the innings of starters and lean on the bullpen.  Now let's combine that with the makeup of the Rangers' rotation.  Mike Minor threw 157 innings in 2018, which was his most since injuring his arm several season ago.  Lance Lynn is coming off a very disappointing season split between the Twins and the Yankees.  Drew Smyly is coming off Tommy John.  Edinson Volquez is a prime candidate to be traded to a contender mid-season if he pitches well.  If he doesn't, he will probably be released.  Shelby Miller has never quite found his form that made him the centerpiece of a trade that brought the Braves former number one overall pick Dansby Swanson.  This is an aging rotation this is bound to break down as the season progresses.  None of these starters can be counted on entering the season.  This might change throughout the season, but there is no way any of these guys rack up even a modest amount of innings.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

#24

The Arizona Diamondbacks won the offseason before the 2016 season, which led to a disappointing season.  Will 2017 be more successful?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in NL West

The Diamondbacks starting centerfielder on August 1st would not be on the Opening Day roster.

2016 Results

69-93, 4th in NL West

In years past, I have overreacted to teams having an amazing offseason.  I tried to be a little more realistic, but they underwhelmed even my modest expectations.  The Diamondbacks did not have a good season in 2016 which ended up costing manager Chip Hale his job.  This was partially because of the injury to AJ Pollock that occurred in the last few days of Spring Training that kept him out until September.  This led to my Fearless Prediction, which was days after the Pollock injury while the team was still figuring out how they were going to replace their star.  Sure enough, in the August 1st game, where the Washington Nationals beat the D-Backs 14-1, the centerfielder for the Diamondbacks was veteran Michael Bourn, who was picked up mid-season.  Prediction achieved!

Additions / Subtractions

The first addition to mention is first-time manager Torey Lovullo, who has spent the last four seasons as the bench coach for the Red Sox.  Outside of that, the only other moves were collecting former Mariners Chris Iannetta, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Fernando Rodney in free agency, as well as making one of the most intriguing trades of the offseason.  The D-Backs acquired Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte from the Mariners for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger.  Rarely do you see trades like this that exchange major contributors to the big league roster.

Most Important Hitter

AJ Pollock

After seeing the collapse of the Diamondbacks' season after AJ Pollock's freak injury in 2016, it showed just how valuable Pollock is to the success of this team.  In 2015, Pollock was an All Star while also winning a Gold Glove playing in 157 games.  However, it was also the only full season he has played in his career.  There is a big question whether he can stay healthy.  If he can, he can be one of the best centerfielders in the game.  That's a big if.

Most Important Pitcher

Shelby Miller

One of the other factors that led to the Diamondbacks' disappointing season in 2016 was the pitching staff.  Zack Greinke came back down to Earth, however the most disappointing by far was Shelby Miller.  In the offseason, the D-Backs had traded several prospects to the Braves for Miller, including former #1 overall draft pick and consensus 2017 preseason Rookie of the Year Dansby Swanson.  How did Miller repay them?  He had an injury-plagued 2016 season that led to only 101 innings pitched in 20 starts.  Even when he was healthy, he was not good, earning a 3-12 record with a 6.15 ERA.  You really can't get much worse.  If the Diamondbacks are going to have success moving forward, it needs to start with their pitching.  Greinke will bounce back, and Taijuan Walker will help, but Shelby Miller has to produce in a way that will start to justify the trade that brought him there.

Player to Watch

Matt Koch

When you consider how bad a trade like the Miller-Swanson trade is looking right now, it just adds insult to injury to see that the Diamondbacks currently have no prospects in baseball's Top 100.  The player most likely to have an impact in 2017 is pitcher Matt Koch.  He is not the most heralded prospect (only #17 in the D-Backs system), but he showed success in limited time in the big leagues last year.  He can start or work in relief while he tries to find a role for this ball club.

2017 Prediction

4th in NL West

There are just too many question marks, and too difficult of a division, for the Diamondbacks to make any strides forward this year.  I think they are heading in the right direction with some of the moves they have made, but too much has to go perfect for them to crack the top three of this division.

Fearless Prediction

Zack Geinke will be traded by this time next year.

Greinke was the surprise prize the Diamondbacks won in last year's offseason.  However, he was to anchor an up-and-coming roster getting ready to compete.  It's looking more and more like this roster is closer to rebuilding than competing.  If that is the case, the last thing they need is a 33 year old starter making $30 million per year.  They could make great strides in rebuilding their depleted farm system if they can find a taker for their high-priced ace.  I think it happens

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks had one of the most surprising and active offseasons of any team in baseball.  Will it lead to greater success in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Predictions: 5th in NL West

2015 Result: 79-83, 3rd in NL West

The D-Backs were one of the quiet surprises of 2015.  They kept their record right around .500 thanks to strong hitting from AJ Pollock and perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.  If it is possible for a team to have one of the best players in baseball, over-achieve on expectations, and no one notice, the Diamondbacks pulled it off in 2015.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Arizona shocked the baseball world this offseason.  Nobody saw it coming.  Of course, I am referring to the new Diamondback uniforms.  No, just kidding!  Zack Greinke!!!  Would he sign with the Dodgers?  The Giants?  In about 12 hours, the D-Backs went from being irrelevant in the sweepstakes to signing the prize of the offseason.  They did not stop there either.  If they were getting Greinke, they were going all in.  They traded for starter Shelby Miller, willing to give up their number one draft pick, Dansby Swanson, to get him.  Obviously, the Diamondbacks believe that baseball right now is highly over-valuing prospects.  They were willing to go get their guy, and no one was untouchable.  They then traded for Jean Segura and signed Tyler Clippard to round out the renovation of their team.

Most Important Hitter

Yasmany Tomas

Part of that Shelby Miller deal was also Ender Inciarte, a quality outfielder that gave them good production in 2015.  Then, in the last Spring Training game, AJ Pollock breaks his elbow and might be out for the entire season.  This puts a lot of pressure on a guy like Yasmany Tomas.  Tomas was signed last year as a potential Cuban superstar.  He was productive, but far less than a superstar in his first year in the big leagues.  With no Inciarte and Pollock, they need Tomas to take a huge step forward and help lengthen this lineup that all of a sudden has a few holes.

Most Important Pitcher

Patrick Corbin

The Diamondbacks have a brand new top two of their rotation with Greinke and Miller.  However, the ace of this staff at one point was Patrick Corbin.  He was an All Star in 2013 and poised to progress into a top pitcher in the game.  Then Tommy John surgery before the 2014 season put him out for a year and a half.  He pitched all right in his limited time in 2015, but now he is two years removed from his surgery and should be close to 100% now.  If he is, this rotation can be one of the best in all of baseball.

Player to Watch

Archie Bradley

The Diamondbacks seemed to have sold most of their top prospects over the offseason to improve the team right now, however they had the depth in their system to work with.  They have several player ready to produce now, with several (Brandon Drury, Socrates Brito) making the Opening Day roster.  they also have several pitchers ready to join the rotation behind Greinke, Miller, and Corbin.  Archie Bradley made his big league debut last season with mediocre results, but he should be ready to go as soon as there is a spot for him.  Watch for Bradley and fellow phenom Braden Shipley to make an impact on this team at some point this season.  Both would probably be in the rotation to start the year if it weren't for the active offseason.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL West

I made this prediction before the Pollock injury, but now I am even more sure of it.  The Diamondbacks are definitely a much better team this year.  They have improved in so many areas.  However, I think it will take a year for them to truly fulfill their potential.  I was really big on the Padres last year, and it blew up in my face.  This is a different situation because I think the D-Backs are committed to this plan long term where the Padres gave up by July.  They will be improved in 2016 and finish over .500, but the top of the division is too hard to crack ... yet.

Fearless Prediction

The Diamondbacks' starting centerfielder on August 1st is not currently on the roster.

It looks like the Diamondbacks did not have much of a contingency plan when AJ Pollock went down the other day.  Their current plan is to move infielder Chris Owings, who hasn't played the outfield since high school, to centerfield.  They also have rookie Socrates Brito that might see some time there, but this looks like a situation the front office will try and remedy in another way after not too much time.  I wonder what it would take for them to bring back Ender Inciarte...

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a rare down year, which was followed by an even rarer selling spree this offseason.  What will the team look like when the dust settles?

Last Season

79-83, 2nd in NL East

For only the third time since Bobby Cox took over as manager in 1991, the Atlanta Braves finished with a record below .500.  However, their division was so weak last year it was still good for second place.  There were some good things that happened, but it was also clear by the end of the season that some changes were needed for the team to get back to its expected success.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

Like I said, changes were needed.  Like I said, they were not the changes Atlanta was used to seeing.  The revamped front office saw a roster that was good, but not great.  They also saw a depleted farm system that would be bringing no help in the future.  So the Braves sacrificed some marginal success in the short-term to improve their chances to be great in the long term.  With this mindset, Atlanta dealt Evan Gattis, Tommy La Stella, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward.  The nucleus that was supposed to bring back the glory days of Braves baseball was gone.  However, the farm system was replenished with top end talent as they began to build towards the future.  The only major additions that will affect the squad this season were Shelby Miller coming over in the Heyward trade and Nick Markakis signing in free agency.  However, the farm system was flooded with new talent, with five of the top 10 and 11 of the top 20 prospects in their system being added in offseason trades this year.  So depending on your definition, this offseason was a success for the Braves.

Most Important Hitter

Chris Johnson

Two years ago, Chris Johnson was winning a batting title while replacing Braves legend Chipper Jones.  Last year, his batting average dropped 60 points.  For the Braves to show any signs of success in the big club this year, Johnson needs to return, maybe not all the way to his 2013 form, but at least start to look like the formidable hitter he did that year.

Most Important Pitcher

Shelby Miller

The Braves have been defined by their pitching ever since the days of Glavine, Smotlz, and Maddux.  Shelby Miller came over from the pitching-rich St. Louis Cardinals in the Jason Heyward deal as a guy who needed a fresh start.  If he is at his best, he could challenge Julio Teheran for the ace of the staff.  However, that potential has not been yet in the big leagues.  With the amount of talent now flowing through the farm system, Miller better figure it out soon or else he may be changing addresses again.  Maybe Atlanta is just what he needed.

Player to Watch

Christian Bethancourt

Why did the Braves let Brian McCann walk in free agency two years ago?  Why did the Braves trade lumberjack Evan Gattis away this year?  Christian Bethancourt is why.  He has been their catcher of the future for years, and after getting a taste of the majors last season, the future is now for this 23 year old backstop.  The Braves were smart bringing in a professional veteran like AJ Pierzynski to mentor Bethancourt throughout the season.  Watch for him to be a standout for the Braves this year.

Prediction

3rd in NL East

Many predictions show the Braves falling further this year, but there are too many proven pieces left on the club in Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, and Craig Kimbrel to see them drop much further than this.  They definitely took a step back this year from where they were a year ago, but it will pay off in the future.  In the meantime, we may need to put up with some Braves baseball that is below the caliber we have become accustomed to.