2021 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

 #29

The Texas Rangers had the misfortune of opening a brand new ballpark in the midst of a pandemic, then watching the World Series be played there even though they weren't in it.  The Rangers disappointed in 2020.  Will they bounce back in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#23 - 4th in AL West

MIH - Willie Calhoun

MIP - Corey Kluber

PTW - Nick Solak

FP - Three players on the Rangers' Opening Day roster retire after the 2020 season.

2020 Results

#29 - 22-38, 5th in AL West

Any hope that the shortened 2020 season would be a success went out the window on Opening Day when their big offseason pickup, Corey Kluber, lasted one inning in his only start with the team before injury sidelined him for the rest of the season.  That moment seemed to sum up their season perfectly.  So many things looked like they could have been heading in the right direction, but they all went wrong instead.  Nick Solak did have a strong 2020, playing in almost every game.  Lance Lynn was another standout in 2020, but there wasn't much to be excited about beyond that.  My choice for their Most Important Hitter in 2020, Willie Calhoun, finished the season with an OPS+ of 34...

Additions / Subtractions

The 2020 offseason was about trying to start the new era of Rangers baseball in their new stadium with a bang.  The 2021 offseason was more about setting up the team for a rebuild that will have them successful in the future.  They took advantage of Lance Lynn's strong 2020 by trading him while his stock was high to the White Sox.  They traded closer Rafael Montero to the Mariners.  They signed Japanese import Kohei Arihara to be a part of their rotation.  They took low-risk fliers on injury-riddled players like David Dahl and Mike Foltynewicz.  The most significant transaction they made was trading Elvis Andrus to the A's for OF/DH Khris Davis as the last remnant of the Rangers' World Series runs of the early 2010's was sent off.

Most Important Hitter

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

One of the reasons the Rangers felt comfortable trading away Elvis Andrus is their desire to establish Isiah Kiner-Falefa as their everyday shortstop.  Kiner-Falefa has been a valuable utility player over the last few seasons, with the added versatility of being able to catch.  In 2020, he spent most of his season at third base, and became the best position player on the roster in terms of WAR while winning the Gold Glove at third base.  Now, he is going to be their shortstop.  His glove shouldn't be a problem, but his bat needs to be more impactful to prove to fans that this transition was worth losing a face of the franchise.

Most Important Pitcher

Mike Foltynewicz

The pitching staff of the Rangers for 2021 is piecemealed together for the most part.  However, one player that could have a huge impact that could help the Rangers greatly is Mike Foltynewicz.  In 2018, Folty was an All Star that received Cy Young votes for the Braves.  By the end of 2020, he had fallen so far that the Braves didn't tender him a contract.  Only entering his age 29 season, if he can recapture the magic that made him an All Star, this could be a future ace for the Rangers.

Prospect to Watch

Dane Dunning

Another potential future centerpiece of the Rangers' pitching staff is Dane Dunning.  The top prospect acquired in the Lance Lynn trade, Dunning made his big league debut in 2020 for the White Sox with decent success.  Still considered a top 100 prospect in baseball, look for this rookie to get every opportunity to have a breakout season in 2021.

2021 Prediction

5th in AL West

It seems that 2020 proved to the Rangers that they have a long way to go before they can compete.  Their roster does not look good.  They have a lot of work to do before they can compete again.  They do have some young pieces that will be exciting to watch, but this might be the least interesting roster in the big leagues, not a title you want while welcoming your fans to a new stadium for the first time.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Woodward will be fired mid-season.

Chris Woodward has not really been given a fair shot in his first run as a big league manager.  He really hasn't had much to work with.  However, look for him to be the scapegoat for a franchise trying to prove to their fans that they are trying to win sooner rather than later.

2020 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

#23

The Texas Rangers might be more frustrated with the delayed start to the season than any other team as they have to delay the opening of their brand new stadium.  When the stadium finally opens, will it lead to greater success for the Rangers in 2020?

2019 Predictions

#26 - 5th in AL West

MIH: Elvis Andrus

MIP: Jose Leclerc

PTW: Jonathan Hernandez

FP: No pitcher for the Rangers will throw over 150 innings in 2019.

2019 Results

#17 - 78-84, 3rd in AL West

The Rangers had much greater success in 2019 than I anticipated behind first year manager Chris Woodward.  Almost reaching .500, the Rangers took great strides forward in getting back to the top of the division and the league.  One of the only holdovers left from the World Series team, Elvis Andrus feels like he has been around forever even though 2019 was only his age 30 season.  He was once again solid at shortstop finishing as the team's 5th best overall player in terms of WAR.  Jose Leclerc, on the other hand, followed up a career year in 2018 with a lackluster season in 2019.  He is a bounceback candidate in 2020.  My Prospect to Watch, Jonathan Hernandez, ended up not having any impact at all, only pitching 16 innings in 9 games as he struggled with control.  The real stars of the season for the Rangers were veteran starting pitchers Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.  Both completely resurrected their careers in their early 30's by becoming the two best players on the team and making my Fearless Prediction look foolish.  Both pitchers ended up not only over 150 innings, but they both finished at the same total of 208.1 innings.

Additions / Subtractions

The offseason for the Rangers was an interesting one as they are trying to keep on their current trajectory while still opening up their new stadium with a bang.  So they traded outfielder Delino DeShields for ace Corey Kluber and signed veteran Todd Frazier to man the hot corner after losing out on the Anthony Rendon sweepstakes.  Then they also traded their young slugging rightfielder Nomar Mazara to the White Sox for a prospect.  Then they rounded out their rotation with veterean arms Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles.  So it was combination of wanting to win now but also not giving up the future at the same time.

Most Important Hitter

Willie Calhoun

Once the centerpiece of the package the Rangers got from the Dodgers for Yu Darvish, Willie Calhoun has greatly struggled so far in his big league career.  Only playing in 131 games over the last 3 seasons, Calhoun has hit .269 with 21 homers and an OPS+ of 96, making him an average hitter.  He took some decent strides in 2019, but now he will be expected to start to show some of that promise as he enters his age 25 season, especially after the Rangers traded DeShields and Mazara.  He needs to be an everyday player while also showing the superstar sparks that made him a top 10 prospect in all of baseball at one point for the Rangers to really take great steps forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Corey Kluber

It is rare that I name a new addition as a team's most important player, but I really think Corey Kluber is that for the Rangers this season.  Mike Minor and Lance Lynn anchored this rotation last season and did an admirable job, but you can't really depend on the same performance.  Kluber is an ace that really makes this rotation borderline elite ... if he is healthy.  He missed most of 2019 with injury which allowed the Rangers to buy low on the two-time Cy Young Award winner.  They got him for a bargain because it is a risk that he returns to his elite form in his age 34 season.  It is also the last year of his deal before he is a free agent.  So best-case scenario, Kluber returns to elite form and leads the Rangers to a successful season and chooses to re-sign after the season.  Not-too-bad-case scenario, Kluber returns to elite form but the Rangers struggle so they trade him mid-season and get some decent prospects back.  Mediocre-case scenario, Kluber pitches good but not elite so the Rangers try to trade him if possible or just ride him out for the season.  Worst-case scenario, the entire season is cancelled due to the current pandemic, Kluber becomes a free agent without ever pitching an inning for the Rangers, and the team literally gets nothing for their trade.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Solak

The Rangers have two players in the Top 100 Prospects, but neither of them crack the top 50 or will be ready until at least 2021.  In fact, the highest prospect that has a chance at having a big league impact in 2020 is their 5th best prospect Nick Solak.  This utility man barely maintained his prospect status in 2019 after playing in 33 games for Texas with some success.  He hit .293 with 5 home runs and 17 RBI's in 116 at bats which was good for a 123 OPS+.  He should see time in the outfield, at second or third, or possibly at DH in 2020.  If he keeps hitting like he did in his short time last year, the Rangers will find room for him in the lineup.

2020 Prediction

4th in AL West

The Rangers are definitely an interesting team that is taking steps forward, but their offseason lacked the splash to really make them competitive in the AL West.  If they had landed Rendon instead of the Angels, I probably would have them higher and in the hunt for a playoff spot.  Since they missed out on him (to a division rival no less), they are a team to watch but won't be knocking on the door of the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

Three players on the Rangers' Opening Day roster retire after the 2020 season.

This is a bit of a far-fetched prediction, but hear me out.  The most likely to retire is Shin-Soo Choo who is entering his age 37 season.  He is still an effective hitter, but he is reaching an age that the end is near.  The next potential candidate for retirement is new 3rd baseman Todd Frazier.  Entering his age 34 season, the Toddfather has really turned into quite the journeyman the last few seasons.  His bat remains legit, but I could see the end on the horizon if this season goes sideways and there isn't a job waiting for him somewhere in 2021.  The next candidate is Corey Kluber.  Also entering his age 34 season, if the injuries don't clear up and he can't return to peak form, I could see an elite player like Kluber calling it quits if he can't be elite anymore.  The chances all three of these guys retire after this season?  Probably pretty rare, but I am going for broke here.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

#26

The Texas Rangers hit the reset button over the offseason this year.  Will the new faces in Arlington bring about more success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in AL West

Cole Hamels will be traded before the end of the season.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in AL West

The Rangers did not have as strong of a season as I expected them to have.  They struggled in many ways, including being in an extremely strong division in 2018.  Cole Hamels did indeed get moved to the Cubs at the Trade Deadline, making that a wasted deal for the Rangers.  However, the 2018 season in Texas will be remembered as the farewell tour for Adrian Beltre, who retired once the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

There wasn't much turnover in the Rangers' lineup going into 2019.  Veteran Asdrubal Cabrera replaces Beltre at third base, and Jeff Mathis goes behind the plate to replace Robinson Chirinos.  The pitching staff had much more change, with Mike Minor being the only returning starter.  Gone are Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, and Matt Moore.  In their place, the Rangers have Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, and Shelby Miller.  The bullpen had some big turnover as well, with Keone Kela, Alex Claudio, and Jake Diekman moving on.  With all these changes, possibly the biggest change is Chris Woodward taking over as manager from Jeff Banister.

Most Important Hitter

Elvis Andrus

It wasn't that long ago that the Rangers were playing in the World Series.  However, the only player remaining from those great Ranger years is shortstop Elvis Andrus.  He has already been in the league for 10 years even though he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has become the grizzled veteran of the team and continues to be a cornerstone of what the Rangers want to do.  However, Andrus had a bad 2018, posting only a 1.7 WAR and the lowest OPS+ since 2010.  Andrus is only halfway through an 8 year contract, which means he will be paid by the Rangers through 2023.  If he is going to earn the second half of this contract, he has to play a lot better than he did last season.  If he is going to be the veteran leader the Rangers need him to be, he has to be a leader with his play.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Leclerc

Relievers can be so up and down from season to season.  However, the Rangers are hoping Jose Leclerc's 2018 season gets repeated over and over again.  Leclerc had one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in 2018, posting a 1.56 ERA in 59 games, averaging 13.3 strikeouts per 9 innings.  As a setup man, Leclerc posted the fourth best WAR on the Rangers' roster in 2018, and was named one of the ten best relievers right now on MLB Network's yearly countdown.  With so many bullpen arms moving on this offseason, Leclerc is now the closer and will now have much more expected of him.  If he can continue his dominance from last year, he will be the anchor this bullpen will need to be effective in 2019.

Prospect to Watch

Jonathan Hernandez

The Rangers have a pretty good farm system, but most of their top prospects are at least a year or two away.  Their highest prospect that has a chance to impact the big league club this year is starting pitcher Jonathan Hernandez.  The Rangers' 5th ranked prospect, Hernandez is a 22 year old righty with a strong fastball and a good slider.  He struggles a little with command, but if he puts it all together, there is a good chance he starts games for the Rangers before the end of the season, especially considering how old the starting rotation is slated to be to start the season.

2019 Prediction

5th in AL West

The Rangers are headed in the right direction.  They are riding a line few teams attempt anymore.  They are rebuilding and waiting for their farm system to pay off while also featuring enough veterans and big league talent to be interesting this year.  They will end up in the cellar again simply because of the strength of this division.  The AL West has become one of the strongest in baseball, which will lead to rookie manager Chris Woodward having a bit of a struggle in his first season.

Fearless Prediction

No pitcher for the Rangers will throw over 150 innings in 2019.

New manager Chris Woodward is a sabermetric guy, coming over from the Dodgers.  One of the goals of managers like this is to limit the innings of starters and lean on the bullpen.  Now let's combine that with the makeup of the Rangers' rotation.  Mike Minor threw 157 innings in 2018, which was his most since injuring his arm several season ago.  Lance Lynn is coming off a very disappointing season split between the Twins and the Yankees.  Drew Smyly is coming off Tommy John.  Edinson Volquez is a prime candidate to be traded to a contender mid-season if he pitches well.  If he doesn't, he will probably be released.  Shelby Miller has never quite found his form that made him the centerpiece of a trade that brought the Braves former number one overall pick Dansby Swanson.  This is an aging rotation this is bound to break down as the season progresses.  None of these starters can be counted on entering the season.  This might change throughout the season, but there is no way any of these guys rack up even a modest amount of innings.