Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts

Friday, March 31, 2023

2023 Pre-Season Profile: New York Yankees

 #2
The New York Yankees rode their AL MVP to the top of their division, but couldn't take that last step and compete in the World Series.  Will 2023 bring their first Fall Classic since 2009?


#13 - 3rd in AL East
MIH - Josh Donaldson
MIP - Luis Severino
PTW - Oswald Peraza

2022 Results
#3 - 99-63, 1st in AL East, lost in ALCS
Highest WAR (Position) - Aaron Judge
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Nestor Cortes
The New York Yankees are currently riding their longest drought without a World Series appearance in franchise history.  That may sound like a spoiled statement, but Yankees standards are higher.  It's World Series or bust every year.  With that said, it's hard to look at 2022 and say it was a complete failure.  They won the AL East, which was probably the toughest division in baseball.  They made it to the ALCS and lost to the eventual champs.  Individually, they had a surprise All Star season from starter Nestor Cortes.  With all that said, by far the biggest story of 2022 was Aaron Judge.  Right now, it takes a record-breaking season to pass both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout to win the MVP.  Well, 62 home runs, 131 RBI's, .311 batting average, 211 OPS+, 10.6 WAR ... yeah, that'll do it.


Additions / Subtractions
Aaron Judge won the MVP in a record-breaking season in his contract year.  The Yankees had to bring him back, and they did (even though everyone thought for an afternoon he was going to be a Giant).  They also upgraded the rotation by signing Carlos Rodon to replace Jameson Taillon.  Outside of that, there wasn't much change in this roster.


Most Important Hitter
Gleyber Torres
Obviously, Aaron Judge and his health is vital to this lineup.  Keeping Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson on the field for a whole season is important.  However, the X-factor of this lineup that could make it elite is Gleyber Torres.  Torres burst on the scene with All Star appearances in his first two seasons.  Then, he followed it up with two disappointing seasons in 2020 and 2021 as the Yankees played with putting him at shortstop.  Last season was his best year since his All Star seasons, but he is still a big question mark entering the season, with even trade rumors surrounding his name this offseason and even entering the season.  He is still only entering his age 27 season with two more years of club control.  If Torres can build off a strong season in 2022 and get back to a borderline All Star level, this lineup will be scary.


Most Important Pitcher
Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon has had a bit of a roller coaster career so far.  He came up with the White Sox in 2015 with a lot of promise and showed that he could develop into something great.  Then he flatlined for a few seasons and never really improved.  Then came injuries, which derailed his 2019 and 2020 seasons.  In a contract year in 2021, he had the best season of his career, but no one was sure if it was sustainable.  After signing a one year deal with the Giants, he proved he had turned a corner.  Now he's a Yankee on a big free agent deal and is expected to pair with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation as co-aces of the staff.  Some are already nervous as he is starting the season on the IL.  If the Yankees are going to have a successful season, they need Carlos Rodon to earn his paycheck.


Prospect to Watch
Anthony Volpe
The Yankees sport a mid-level farm system, which is impressive considering how often they dip into it to make blockbuster trades.  The top of their system is the #5 overall prospect in all baseball, Anthony Volpe.  He is a highly-touted phenom drafted out of high school that has cheered for the Yankees his entire life that got the Opening Day start at shortstop for the Pinstripes.  Sound familiar?  Volpe does sport a different game than Derek Jeter had though.  He is a true five-tool player that can do it all.  This was shown in the minors when in 2021 he hit 27 homers, 35 doubles, and stole 33 bases.  He followed that up in 2022 with 21 homers, 35 doubles, and 50 steals.  He became the first 20/50 minor leaguer since Andruw Jones in 1995.  That's pretty good company too.  The Yankees may have another superstar on their hands at shortstop.


2023 Prediction
1st in AL East, lose World Series
The Yankees have been so close to getting back to the World Series recently.  One of these seasons, they are going to break through.  There were a lot of big names available in free agency, and they did bring in Rodon (which was a much needed addition).  However, I like it when teams decide to stay quiet and show confidence in the group they already have.  They are the Yankees so they may be a prime candidate for a big trade at some point, but the consistency of this roster might bode well and bring them an AL pennant.


Fearless Prediction
Aaron Judge will not lead his team in home runs in 2023.
He can't do it again, can he?  Aaron Judge played in 157 games in 2022, the most of his career and only the third full season of his career.  Most of those games were in centerfield.  An injury does tend to creep up on him from time to time.  I could also see the Yankees try to protect him and keep him fresh.  With all that said, this is less of a statement on Judge (he did homer yesterday on the second pitch he saw on Opening Day) and more a statement on Giancarlo Stanton.  I have always been a fan of Stanton, and his time in the Bronx has been perceived mostly as a disappointment.  However, he has stayed moderately healthy the last two seasons, hitting over 30 homers both years.  He has big seasons in him too, having hit 59 homers back in 2017 in his last season in Miami.  If he can stay healthy again, I could Stanton and Judge pull a Mantle and Maris in their home run competition.  It's not out of the question to see a total of over 100 home runs from just these two (last year they combined for 93).


Monday, April 11, 2022

2022 MLB Pre-Season Predictions: #20-11

 #20
Texas Rangers
2021 Prediction: #29, 5th in AL West
2021 Fearless Prediction: Chris Woodward will be fired mid-season.
2021 Result: #28, 60-102, 5th in AL West
Most Important Hitter: Adolis Garcia
Most Important Pitcher: Jon Gray
Prospect to Watch: Josh Jung
2022 Prediction: 4th in AL West

The Rangers spent loads of money this offseason establishing their lineup core for the next decade with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  Now they just need to wait for a young wave of players to work their way through the system.  The free agents definitely gave them a jump start, but they still have a ways to go.


#19
Chicago Cubs
2021 Prediction: #21, 4th in NL Central
2021 Fearless Prediction: The only player in the dugout from the Cubs' World Series roster on Opening Day 2022 will be manager David Ross.
2021 Result: #24, 71-91, 4th in NL Central
Most Important Hitter: Nico Hoerner
Most Important Pitcher: Marcus Stroman
Prospect to Watch: Brennen Davis
2022 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

The Cubs did indeed trade away almost everyone remaining from their World Series run just 6 years ago.  Now they are starting over and rebuilding, but they are a little further along than others.  They still have a legit ace or two, and they signed one of the ultimate wild cards in the free agent pool this offseason in Seiya Suzuki.  They also are in one of the weakest divisions in the league.  They could easily flirt with .500 in 2022.


#18
Tampa Bay Rays
2021 Prediction: #11, 3rd in AL East
2021 Fearless Prediction: Randy Arozarena will hit less home runs in 2021 than he did in 2020.
2021 Result: #3, 100-62, 1st in AL East, lost in ALDS
Most Important Hitter: Randy Arozarena
Most Important Pitcher: Shane McClanahan
Prospect to Watch: Shane Baz
2022 Prediction: 4th in AL East

At some point, they way the Rays operate has to catch up with them and lead to a down year.  They can't keep dominating the toughest division in baseball.  There are only so many wins to go around, and although they have one of the most exciting young players around in Wander Franco, 2022 looks to be the year they struggle.


#17
Minnesota Twins
2021 Prediction: #10, 2nd in AL central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game
2021 Fearless Prediction: The Twins' top starting pitcher entering the postseason is currently not on their roster.
2021 Result: #23, 73-89, 5th in AL Central
Most Important Hitter: Byron Buxton
Most Important Pitcher: Chris Paddack
Prospect to Watch: Joe Ryan
2022 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central

The success of the Twins in 2022 revolves entirely around whether Byron Buxton can stay healthy.  They have a pretty formidable lineup, adding Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez, and Carlos Correa.  Their pitching is pretty unproven, shown by one of their top prospects making his big league debut starting Opening Day.  This is a team that could make the playoffs or finish in the cellar or end up anywhere in between.  It all depends on their health.


#16
St. Louis Cardinals
2021 Prediction: #1, 1st in NL Central, win World Series
2021 Fearless Prediction: Jack Flaherty win the NL Cy Young Award.
2021 Result: #10, 90-72, 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game
Most Important Hitter: Nolan Arenado
Most Important Pitcher: Steven Matz
Prospect to Watch: Matthew Liberatore
2022 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central

I was really high on the Cardinals last year, picking them for a surprise run to the title.  I thought I had something when they went on their crazy run to end the season and make the playoffs, but ultimately ended up short.  Now I might be a little too low on them.  With star pitcher Jack Flaherty still hurt, their mismatched rotation will have to be strong for their season to be a success.  If nothing else, they will be a fun watch as Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright appear poised to make 2022 a joint farewell tour.


#15
Detroit Tigers
2021 Prediction: #23, 4th in AL Central
2021 Fearless Prediction: Miguel Cabrera will become a 3000/500 hitter in 2021.
2021 Result: #20, 77-85, 3rd in AL Central
Most Important Hitter: Javier Baez
Most Important Pitcher: Casey Mize
Prospect to Watch: Spencer Torkelson
2022 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central

The Tigers are poised for a breakout.  They have amassed a ton of young talent reading to emerge, and they went out and signed a leader to anchor their team at shortstop.  If Baez can live up to his contract, if Casey Mize and others can show their promise in the rotation, and if a phenom like former #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson can have a solid rookie season, the Tigers might ride this wide open division to a playoff birth.


#14
San Francisco Giants
2021 Prediction: #18, 3rd in NL West
2021 Fearless Prediction: At least two of the Giants' starting infielders will be traded mid-season.
2021 Result: #1, 107-55, 1st in NL West, lost in NLDS
Most Important Hitter: Brandon Belt
Most Important Pitcher: Logan Webb
Prospect to Watch: Heliot Ramos
2022 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

No one surprised quite as much in 2021 as the San Francisco Giants.  I was predicting them to potentially be sellers at the Trade Deadline.  Instead, they had the best record in all of baseball.  Their leader, Buster Posey, retired which will be hard to replace.  If the veterans are able to continue to contribute, and if their pitching staff can dominate again, they could repeat last year's performance, but it will be really tough.


#13
New York Yankees
2021 Prediction: #4, 1st in AL East, lose in ALCS
2021 Fearless Prediction: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will hit 100+ hone runs combined.
2021 Result: #7, 92-70, 3rd in AL East, lost in Wild Card Game
Most Important Hitter: Josh Donaldson
Most Important Pitcher: Luis Severino
Prospect to Watch: Oswald Peraza
2022 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

The Yankees always look like they should be one of the best teams in baseball on paper, but the pressure of the bright lights in the Bronx prove to be harder to overcome than anyone realizes.  Their lineup is always loaded, with Donaldson being a key addition if he can stay healthy.  Their rotation has some holes, and everyone needs to stay healthy.  I have them just missing the postseason party, which probably will lead to several firings, starting with Aaron Boone.


#12
Atlanta Braves
2021 Prediction: #6, 1st in NL East, lose in NLDS
2021 Fearless Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. wins the NL MVP.
2021 Result: #12, 88-73, 1st in NL East, won World Series
Most Important Hitter: Matt Olson
Most Important Pitcher: Kenley Jansen
Prospect to Watch: Spencer Strider
2022 Prediction: 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

The Braves got hot at the right time and ended up winning it all in 2021.  Then they dropped the ball on signing back their leader in Freddie Freeman.  Instead, they traded away a lot of top talent from their farm system to bring in Matt Olson, who they signed to the extension they wanted to sign Freeman to.  Magical runs like last year don't happen twice.  I have them sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the expanded field, but they won't even host a playoff game.


#11
Boston Red Sox
2021 Prediction: #26, 5th in AL East
2021 Fearless Prediction: J.D. Martinez will be traded before the 2022 season.
2021 Result: #8, 91-71, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in ALCS
Most Important Hitter: Trevor Story
Most Important Pitcher: Chris Sale
Prospect to Watch: Jeter Downs
2022 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

The Red Sox in 2021 proved how much a manager matters.  They were a step away from the World Series with Alex Cora when they were horrible in 2020 without him.  The big question mark for them this season is the rotation.  If they can get healthy and stay that way, they can dominate again.  If not, they will have to outscore a lot of teams (which they have the lineup to do).

Thursday, April 1, 2021

2021 Pre-Season Profile: New York Yankees

 #4
The New York Yankees once again bring a star-studded roster into the season, but they haven't found their way into Fall Classic in over a decade.  Will 2021 be the year they return to the World Series?

#5 - 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS
MIH - Giancarlo Stanton
MIP - James Paxton
PTW - Clarke Schmidt

2020 Results
#10 - 33-27, 2nd in AL East, lost in ALDS
The Yankees must be scratching their heads after spending all that money on all their superstars, and then they watch the small market Tampa Bay Rays win the division and knock them out of the playoffs.  Despite all their talent, the Yankees seem to be stuck and keep coming up short of the pennant, let alone a World Series championship.

Additions / Subtractions
This proved to be an interesting offseason in the Bronx as they tried to improve their team without being huge spenders.  They re-signed D.J. LeMahieu who has become the quiet heart and soul of the team.  On the pitching side, three veterans left the rotation in J.A. Happ and James Paxton signing elsewhere and mainstay Masahiro Tanaka returning to Japan.  They replaced them by signing former Cy Young winner and bounce back candidate Corey Kluber and by trading for Jameson Taillon.  In the bullpen, they traded Adam Ottovino to the Red Sox (what?!?) to save money (WHAT?!?!?!?) and replaced him with veteran Darren O'Day.

Most Important Hitter
Gleyber Torres
Gleyber Torres was anointed as the next Yankee superstar almost before he played a single game in the big leagues.  As a second baseman, he burst on the scene in 2018 and 2019, making the All Star Team both seasons.  In 2020, he moved to shortstop and his production took a dip.  Was it a young player having a down year?  Is Torres better suited to be a second baseman?  Well, he's back at short, but only entering his age 24 season.  If he bounces back, he is a really important weapon in that lineup.

Most Important Pitcher
Corey Kluber
The ace of the Yankees is Gerrit Cole.  That's a given.  What happens after him in the rotation is going to be fascinating to watch.  The Yankees are relying a lot on a guy like Corey Kluber that has only thrown 36.2 innings over the last two seasons to probably be their #2.  By all indications, the 34 year old starter is entering the season fully healthy for the first time in awhile, but the Yankees need him to be back to his old self, win double digit games, be an All Star candidate, and throw 150 innings.  Otherwise, their rotation runs the risk of being Gerrit Cole and that's it.

Prospect to Watch
Deivi Garcia
One pitcher that also might help with that rotation depth is Deivi Garcia.  He got a chance to start 6 games in 2020 for the Yankees with marginal success.  This 21 year old righty is the 87th best prospect in baseball entering 2021 and has the opportunity to add the depth the Yankees lost in free agency.  You don't normally see the Yankees rely so heavily on rookies, but you get the idea that the Yankees didn't work harder on filling holes in their rotation because they are counting on contributions from Deivi Garcia and fellow prospect Clarke Schmidt..

2021 Prediction
1st in AL East, lose in ALCS
The talent of the Yankees is undeniable.  I know the small-time Rays beat them out in 2020, but in a full season with that lineup, the Yankees are going to take the division.  With that said, the pitching is going to catch up with them in the playoffs and cost them a shot at returning to the World Series in 2021.

Fearless Prediction
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will hit 100+ home runs combined.
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the big boppers (emphasis on "BIG") in the middle of the Yankees' lineup, however their storyline as teammates has been defined more by injuries than their on-field production.  Judge has only played one full season in his career, and Stanton has only played 41 games over the last two seasons.  When they play full seasons, their home run totals are some of the highest in baseball (Judge led the AL in 2017 with 52 as a rookie, Stanton led the NL in 2017 with 59 in his MVP year and last year in Miami).  I think this is the year they both finally play a full season together, and if they do, it could be scary.


Thursday, July 23, 2020

2020 MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

We are FINALLY about to get some baseball!!!  After four months of delay due to the pandemic and a labor dispute, we are getting a crazy season of 60 games, a little over one-third of a normal season.  Every game will count in a way it never has before.  Back in March, I started my yearly pre-season profiles of each team.  Once the season was postponed, I postponed my profiles.  Now that the season is about to start, here is a quick overview of my pre-season rankings, thoughts, and predictions.  A few adjustments have been made since March, but the profiles I already did are locked in.  They are definitely the lower tier of the league this season.

#30

#29

#28

#27

#26

#25

#24

#23

#22

#21
Boston Red Sox
Most Important Hitter: Xander Bogaerts
Most Important Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi
Prospect to Watch: Tanner Houck
2020 Prediction: 4th in AL East

Loss of manager, Mookie, and Sale on the shelf will lead to a disappointing result in Fenway.

#20
Toronto Blue Jays
Most Important Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Most Important Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu
Prospect to Watch: Nate Pearson
2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

The Blue Jays are currently homeless, but they have a young core that is almost ready to take another step forward.  Could be a surprise contender.

#19
San Diego Padres
Most Important Hitter: Manny Machado
Most Important Pitcher: Garrett Richards
Prospect to Watch: MacKenzie Gore
2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

Another possible surprise contender, the Padres' youth movement needs their veteran leaders to lead the way for them to take the leap in 2020.

#18
Chicago Cubs
Most Important Hitter: Willson Contreras
Most Important Pitcher: Yu Darvish
Prospect to Watch: Nico Hoerner
2020 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

The toughest division in baseball is going to make sure the Cubs and their window of contention with this core might be over.

#17
Cleveland Indians
Most Important Hitter: Francisco Lindor
Most Important Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
Prospect to Watch: Logan Allen
2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central

The 2020 season will be less about if the Indians can compete and more about how it might be the last we see of Francisco Lindor in a Cleveland uniform.

#16
Washington Nationals
Most Important Hitter: Juan Soto
Most Important Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
Prospect to Watch: Carter Kieboom
2020 Prediction: 4th in NL East

The defending champs have one of the best rotations in baseball and could do damage in the playoffs again because of it.  I just don't see the lineup getting them there.

#15
Chicago White Sox
Most Important Hitter: Eloy Jimenez
Most Important Pitcher: Lucas Giolito
Prospect to Watch: Luis Robert
2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central

A lot of people are picking the ChiSox to make the playoffs.  They could easily slip into a Wild Card spot, but I think they are still a year or two away.

#14
New York Mets
Most Important Hitter: Robinson Cano
Most Important Pitcher: Edwin Diaz
Prospect to Watch: Kevin Smith
2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL East

This is a roster that could top the division or bottom out.  It all depends if their veterans can stay healthy.

#13
Los Angeles Angels
Most Important Hitter: Anthony Rendon
Most Important Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani
Prospect to Watch: Jo Adell
2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL West

The Angels landed one of the big fish in the offseason, but their pitching is too mediocre to truly get over the top yet.

#12
Milwaukee Brewers
Most Important Hitter: Keston Hiura
Most Important Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff
Prospect to Watch: Drew Rasmussen
2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

The Brewers have an elite lineup build for the new NL DH.  Their pitching is as average as their playoff runs, but their division is getting deeper and tougher.

#11
St. Louis Cardinals
Most Important Hitter: Paul Goldschmidt
Most Important Pitcher: Miles Mikolas
Prospect to Watch: Dylan Carlson
2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central

I had the Cards in the playoffs in March, but pulled them out now.  They are always right there, but they are built for the marathon, not the sprint.

#10
Atlanta Braves
Most Important Hitter: Marcell Ozuna
Most Important Pitcher: Cole Hamels
Prospect to Watch: Kyle Wright
2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The Braves have one of the best young cores in baseball.  They will make the playoffs, but they are just a little too young to make a deep run ... yet.

#9
Oakland A's
Most Important Hitter: Marcus Semien
Most Important Pitcher: Liam Hendriks
Prospect to Watch: Jesus Luzardo
2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The A's always seem to be good enough to reach the playoffs every year, but not do anything once they get there.  The shortened season also makes them vulnerable to miss the playoffs in 2020.

#8
Arizona Diamondbacks
Most Important Hitter: Starling Marte
Most Important Pitcher: Robbie Ray
Prospect to Watch: J.B. Bukauskas
2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

As weird as it would be to see MadBum in the postseason not in a Giants uniform, I think the D-Backs have the roster to get there.

#7
Cincinnati Reds
Most Important Hitter: Eugenio Suarez
Most Important Pitcher: Raisel Iglesias
Prospect to Watch: Tony Santillan
2020 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

If this was a full season, I don't see the Reds making the postseason.  However, in a 60 game season, I see the Reds getting hot and the season ending before they fall back to the rest of the pack.  One of the best rotations in the league.

#6
Houston Astros
Most Important Hitter: Carlos Correa
Most Important Pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr.
Prospect to Watch: Forrest Whitley
2020 Prediction: 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

The Astros might benefit most from having no fans ... banging on trash cans.  They are too talented not to win the division, but the loss of Gerrit Cole will make a deep run tough.

#5
New York Yankees
Most Important Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton
Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton
Prospect to Watch: Clarke Schmidt
2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Yankees might have the most talented roster in the AL, but I don't think they have the best team.  I see the World Series favorite falling short.

#4
Philadelphia Phillies
Most Important Hitter: Andrew McCutchen
Most Important Pitcher: Zack Wheeler
Prospect to Watch: Alec Bohm
2020 Prediction: 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

The Phillies have all the makings of a deep run in the postseason.  They have a killer lineup and great pitching.  Too bad there is a superteam they will be running into.

#3
Minnesota Twins
Most Important Hitter: Byron Buxton
Most Important Pitcher: Kenta Maeda
Prospect to Watch: Alex Kirilloff
2020 Prediction: 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

If only the Twins could have put some more elite talent in their pitching staff...  They have possibly the best lineup in the league which will carry them this far.

#2
Tampa Bay Rays
Most Important Hitter: Austin Meadows
Most Important Pitcher: Blake Snell
Prospect to Watch: Brendan McKay
2020 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Rays have the best bullpen, one of the best rotations (which is funny considering they use the opener so often), and an efficient lineup.  They are set up to dominate, especially in this sprint season.

#1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Most Important Hitter: Corey Seager
Most Important Pitcher: Julio Urias
Prospect to Watch: Dustin May
2020 Prediction: 1st in NL West, win World Series

I think this is the year.  They have the best roster that only got better with Mookie.  Their pitching is strong and deep.  I hate to go with the favorite, but they are just that good.