#29
The Detroit Tigers had been flirting with 100 losses in 2017 and 2018 before finally crossing the line and becoming the worst in baseball in 2019. There are also only 3 or 4 players left from their roster the last time they were good as they have been stockpiling young talent. Will 2020 see improvement or more cellar-dwelling?
#27 - 4th in AL Central
MIH: Nicholas Castellanos
MIP: Michael Fulmer
PTW: Alex Faedo
FP: Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.
2019 Results
#30 - 47-114, 5th in AL Central
Going into the 2019 season, it felt like there was some stiff competition for the cellar of the AL Central between the Tigers and the Royals. I didn't expect the Tigers to bottom out quite like they did. Castellanos and Fulmer held so much importance last season for their trade value. Castellanos did indeed get traded while Fulmer ended up having Tommy John surgery before the season even started. Even with Fulmer's injury, the pitching performed okay in 2019 (which isn't a huge accomplishment in spacious Comerica Park). It was the offense that failed them. The team posted an overall OPS+ of 78 (100 is league average), with only Castellanos posting a total above average at 105, while only three of the team's top 12 players in terms of WAR were position players (one of which was Castellanos who didn't even play the whole season in Detroit). My Prospect to Watch failed me as well as Alex Faedo, who was drafted as a potentially MLB-ready battle-tested college arm, struggled to regain the form that made him the ace of a College World Series winning team.
Additions / Subtractions
It's easy to compare the Tigers and Orioles right now as they both are going through some difficult rebuilding years. However, what makes the Tigers different is they are willing to try and bring in some veterans on one year deals to hold spots for some of the young kids coming up, mentor them along the way, and perhaps be flipped at the Trade Deadline if they have a decent season. This year's crop of players brought into Detroit include C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, and Ivan Nova. Guys like Cron and Schoop actually are still quality players that could bring some real value to the team.
Most Important Hitter
Jonathan Schoop
Honestly, there isn't much interesting or exciting about this lineup outside of the veterans. Niko Goodrum is really the only homegrown talent in the lineup that has been able to make a mark in the big leagues as one of the better utility men. So when picking the important hitter, I am going with the most interesting hitter, and that is Jonathan Schoop. Like I said before, he can bring some real value to the Tigers. Only three years removed from being an All Star in 2017, he has had a roller coaster career since, being traded into a platoon in 2018 before regaining a little of his old form in Minnesota in 2019. Now he is in Detroit as a seasoned veteran mid-season trade chip, even though he is just entering his age 28 season. Is he the All Star of 2017? Is he the player that will struggle to find the field he was in 2018? Or is he somewhere in between like he was in 2019? It is also the first time he will really be looked at as a potential leader on his team. I am fascinated to see where how this season plays out for Schoop.
Most Important Pitcher
Matthew Boyd
Last year was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the Tigers, but their best player (at least their best player that was still on the roster at the end of the season) was Matthew Boyd. The lefty quickly became the ace of their pitching staff and became one of the few bright spots for the Tigers throughout the season. In fact, the most surprising thing about him might have been the fact that he was never traded. He was at the heart of many trade rumors and continues to be as the 2020 season gets ready to begin. Only entering his age 29 season and under club control through 2023, as long as Boyd stays healthy he will be one of the most sought after pitchers on the market when the contenders are looking to upgrade at the Trade Deadline. You might ask why the Tigers would be willing to trade their young ace when they are trying to rebuild. The answer is simple ... they have several future aces about to burst on the scene in their farm system.
Prospect to Watch
Casey Mize
One positive about being terrible for an extended period of time and trading away all your top veterans is you build a really good farm system. Last year's Prospect to Watch, Alex Faedo, now can barely hang on in the top 10 prospects in the Tigers' system. The Tigers have four players in the Top 100 Prospects, with all of them appearing in the top 50. Three of those four are pitchers, with Casey Mize being the best of the group. The 2018 number one overall selection in the draft out of Auburn is the top player in the Tigers' system and the #7 prospect in all of baseball. With an upper-90's fastball and an elite splitter, Mize has the makeup to be the Tigers' ace for the next decade. Last season, he topped out in AA. The potentially truncated 2020 season might delay his big league debut a year, but waiting for him, and fellow top pitching prospect Matt Manning, to splash on the scene is one of the few things Tigers fans have to be excited about.
2020 Prediction
5th in AL Central
The Tigers and the Orioles have been two of the worst teams in baseball over the last three season, and this season isn't going to change that fact. The only reason I am putting the Tigers above the Orioles is because they brought in some more impact veterans and have their top prospects potentially debuting and having an impact this season. With all that said, the Tigers are not going to be ready to compete until 2022 or 2023.
Fearless Prediction
Miguel Cabrera will retire at the end of the 2020 season.
One of the last holdovers from the Tigers' glory days is Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters of this generation, winning the Triple Crown in 2012, and an easy first ballot Hall of Famer. However, he is now entering his age 37 season, and his body has broken down so much that he can't really do anything but DH. Even with that, last year he only totaled 12 home runs and 59 RBI's while posting an OPS+ of 96, making him now a below average hitter. It is hard to see the greats hold on too long, and I'm afraid Miggy already has. This really could be his last season, especially if the injury bug hits him yet again, however there are three reasons he might stick around longer. First, he is 185 hits shy of 3000, a total he can reach by the end of 2021 if he stays healthy. Second, he is 23 home runs shy of 500, which again is attainable by the end of 2021. Third, the Tigers are committed to pay him over $30 million per year through 2023. So there's that.
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