2023 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #23

The Boston Red Sox went from cellar in 2020 to the ALCS in 2021 back to the cellar in 2022.  Will 2023 see another bounce back?  Or will they stay in the cellar?

2022 Predictions

#11 - 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - Chris Sale

PTW - Jeter Downs

2022 Results

#17 - 78-84, 5th in AL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Xander Bogaerts

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Michael Wacha

The Red Sox got hurt by being in the best division in baseball in 2022.  Only finishing 6 games under .500, they were still only good for last place in the AL East.  Thanks to more injuries, Chris Sale only pitched 2 games in 2022, bringing his grand total of 11 starts in the last 3 seasons.  Trevor Story had an okay first season in Boston.  The season wasn't bad, but when you are chasing down the rest of that division, it feels like they had a long way to go.

Additions / Subtractions

No fan base is more dejected entering the 2023 season than the Boston Red Sox.  They watched cornerstones Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez leave in free agency.  Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer moved on after mid-season acquisitions.  Starters Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Nathan Eovaldi left in free agency.  Jeter Downs, one of the centerpieces of the prospect haul in the Mookie Betts trade, gets DFA'ed, marking a sign of admitting they lost that trade.  Last offseason's prize signing Trevor Story is out for most of the year.  They did bring in some talent with starter Corey Kluber, closer Kenley Jansen, infielders Justin Turner and Adalberto Mondesi, and outfielders Adam Duvall and Japanese import Masataka Yoshida.  That's some huge turnover!  There was also a lot more star power walking out the door than walking in.  At least they were able to re-sign Rafael Devers to a big extension or else this offseason would have been a colossal failure.  Otherwise he would have been the next Red Sox superstar to be traded or leave in free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Masataka Yoshida

The biggest wild cards on any roster are Japanese imports.  These superstars in the Japanese league are trying to be the next Ichiro or Hideki Matsui or Shohei Ohtani.  Sometimes they become the next Kazuo Matsui, Kosuke Fukudome, or Tsuyoshi Shinjo.  The latest to make the transition is Masataka Yoshida.  He is slated to be the keeper of the Green Monster in leftfield to start the season, but how will he transition?  Looking at the rest of the offseason the Red Sox had, it looks like they are expecting Yoshida to come in and produce immediately to help pick up the massive hole left behind by the likes of Bogaerts and Martinez.  If he hits, the Red Sox are in much better shape than some think.  If he misses, the Red Sox may be in some trouble.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Sale

Chris Sale is being paid like the ace of the Red Sox.  For the last 3 seasons, he has been cashing the checks with no production.  He is signed on this megadeal for at least the next two seasons.  If he can get on the field, he has the tools to still be one of the best pitchers in baseball ... I think.  Have the injuries aged his body too much?  He is entering his age 34 season.  He is not a young pitcher anymore.  The Red Sox are relying on him being back at the elite level because there is not much depth and top end talent behind him.

Prospect to Watch

Triston Casas

The Red Sox may have 4 prospects in MLB's Top 100 right now, but their system is ranked 19th according to Bleacher Report due to a lack of depth.  One of their top prospects is Triston Casas.  Ranked the 23rd best prospect in baseball and the 2nd best prospect in the Red Sox system, Casas is slated to be the starting first baseman on Opening Day in Boston.  Casas is a big dude with a big bat.  At 6'4" and 252lb, Casas could easily be a 40 homer guy.  Barely staying under the threshold to maintain rookie status, Casas played in 27 in 2022 for the Red Sox and homered 5 times.  He is definitely a bat the Red Sox are hoping will pop in 2023.

2023 Prediction

5th in AL East

I don't really see any other outcome for the Red Sox this season.  They watched too much talent leave and didn't bring in enough to make up for it.  Even with last year's talent, they were in the cellar.  Also, their division is so stacked.  This division had 3 teams in the playoffs in 2022 with the Orioles just missing.  There's really no other option for the Red Sox.  Either something goes drastically wrong in Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore, or the Bronx, or ... the Red Sox finish in the cellar for the third time in 4 seasons.

Fearless Prediction

This is Chris Sale's last season for the Red Sox.

At some point, the Red Sox have to realize they need to stop trying to half compete and just need to sell off and rebuild.  I think that starts with Chris Sale.  If he pitches well this year, he gets traded at the deadline or in the offseason to a contender who thinks they are one arm away.  If he pitches poorly, they might just eat the money and let him go.  Either way, this could be the end of his road in Boston.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

 #3

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally broke through and took the top prize in 2020 for the first time since 1988.  Is this the start of a new dynasty in LA?

2020 Predictions

#1 - 1st in NL West, win World Series

MIH - Corey Seager

MIP - Julio Urias

PTW - Dustin May

2020 Result

#1 - 43-17, 1st in NL West, won World Series

I will once again brag that I correctly predicted the World Series matchup and result!  The Dodgers have been one of the most talented teams in the league for awhile now, but finally they took the top prize.  They seem to only ever get better and stronger and deeper.

Additions / Subtractions

Even after winning the World Series, the Dodgers couldn't be content.  They had to get better, especially after seeing the crazy moves made by the division rival Padres.  Enter 2020 Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer.  If any team didn't need another starting pitcher, it was the Dodgers.  Now they have the most elite rotations in memory with Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, David Price, and Tony Gonsolin all in a position to get starts throughout the season.  In terms of the lineup, they re-signed third baseman Justin Turner while they let second baseman Kike Hernandez sign elsewhere, clearing room for former top prospect Gavin Lux to start every day.

Most Important Hitter

Will Smith

The Dodgers lineup is loaded with at least three potential MVP candidates in Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager.  However, the key to their lineup might be catcher Will Smith, not necessarily for what he brings offensively but what he brings behind the plate.  Smith is entering his third full season in the big leagues, and he has always been able to hit.  His work defensively will be much more crucial as he looks to be the everyday catcher in 2021, especially considering the dream team pitching staff that is throwing to him.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenley Jansen

The starting rotation is deep and elite.  The bullpen is just as deep, but there are definite questions as to how elite they are at the back end.  Kenley Jansen has been the closer in LA for almost a decade.  His peak was in 2017 where he had 41 saves, a 1.32 ERA, and earned both Cy Young and MVP votes.  The last three seasons have been borderline average for Jansen, so much so that there has been talk of hi keeping his closer job.  Now the 33 year old is looking for a bounce back season to keep his job and keep the rest the back end of that bullpen elite.

Prospect to Watch

Keibert Ruiz

Along with bringing in some top talents through trades and free agency, the Dodgers have been incredibly good at building from within in recent years.  Whether it is Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Will Smith, Walker Buehler, or Julio Urias, the Dodgers constantly develop talent into stars and rarely trade away their top prospects.  Not many of the top prospects are projected to help the big club this season (and with the veteran depth they have, that's no surprise).  The one most likely to have an impact in the majors is top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz.  Ruiz is one that the Dodgers have been protecting the last few seasons in the big trades they have pulled off.  Now he will either be the trade chip they need to make another big splash or provide some depth behind the plate behind Will Smith and Austin Barnes.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL West, lose in NLCS

Are the Dodgers the most talented roster in the league?  Yes.  Are they the defending champions?  Yes.  Are they the favorites to repeat?  Yes.  With all that said, only twice in the 21st century have the defending champs even made the World Series the next year (2001 Yankees, 2009 Phillies).  No one has repeated as champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees won three in a row.  The last seven seasons have even had seven different champions.  The Dodgers have the talent to have that kind of run, but it is extremely hard to do.  There is enough parody in baseball right now that I think the Dodgers fall short of the Fall Classic in 2021.  At the same time, this year might be the easiest year to repeat with their depth and the short season in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

This is the last year Clayton Kershaw wears Dodger blue.

Clayton Kershaw is going to go down as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  He is entering a contract year as a 33 year old, and looking at a roster filled with megadeals and superstars looking for megadeals.  At some point the Dodgers have to run out of money, right?  They just paid Mookie Betts last year, they paid Trevor Bauer this year, they need to decide who will be their shortstop of the future and give him a big payday (whether it is Corey Seager or one of the other superstar free agent shortstops), young stars like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler will need to be paid soon, and they still have some other big contracts on the books like A.J. Pollock and David Price.  You have to think Kershaw will either need to take a huge hometown discount or move on to a team that needs a star, like Kershaw's hometown Rangers.

2017-2018 MLB Wraparound Season

I am a sports junkie (probably even more so than a movie junkie).  I love watching sports, playing sports, and pretty much anything to do with sports.  My favorite might be stats.  I am a numbers guy, and I find all the stats fascinating.  This is one of the many reasons baseball season is possibly my favorite season as it is more stats-driven than any other sport.  The MLB All Star Break is one of my favorite parts of the summer.  It not only allows for baseball to take the sole sports spotlight for one of the only times in the year, but it also gives me the chance to do my yearly baseball stats deep dive.

Who have been the best baseball players over the last 12 months?  I call this the wraparound season.  I tabulate the stats from after the All Star Break last year and combine them with the stats from the first half of this season.  This helps see who might be key contributors in the upcoming playoff push.  It also might show who has been overworked and might fall off production down the stretch run.  I gathered stats for all hitters in the top 50 in hits, doubles, home runs, RBI's, and runs from last year's second half and this year's first half.  I did the same with pitchers, with the top 50 in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, and the top 30 in saves.  Before we look at the 2017-2018 Wraparound Season, let's look back at who stood out in the 2016-2017 Wraparound Season.

Underrated Hitters

1.  Jose Ramirez - CLE

2.  Ender Inciarte - ATL

3.  Jedd Gyorko - STL

4.  Charlie Blackmon - COL

5.  Jose Abreu - CWS

Underrated Pitchers

1.  Ivan Nova - PIT

2.  Dan Straily - CIN / MIA

3.  Sean Manaea - OAK

4.  Ervin Santana - MIN

5.  Robbie Ray - ARZ

AL Wraparound MVP

1.  Jose Ramirez - CLE

2.  Jose Altuve - HOU

3.  Mike Trout - LAA

4.  Aaron Judge - NYY

5.  Nelson Cruz - SEA

NL Wraparound MVP

1.  Joey Votto - CIN

2.  Freddie Freeman - ATL

3.  Charlie Blackmon - COL

4.  Nolan Arenado - COL

5.  Daniel Murphy - WAS

AL Wraparound Cy Young

1.  Corey Kluber - CLE

2.  Chris Sale - BOS

3.  Justin Verlander - DET / HOU

4.  Chris Archer - TB

5.  Ervin Santana - MIN

NL Wraparound Cy Young

1.  Max Scherzer - WAS

2.  Clayton Kershaw - LAD

3.  Carlos Martinez - STL

4.  Kyle Hendricks - CHC

5.  Ivan Nova - PIT

Top Relievers

1.  Kenley Jansen - LAD

2.  Andrew Miller - NYY / CLE

3.  Craig Kimbrel - BOS

4.  Aroldis Chapman - NYY

5.  Wade Davis - KC / CHC

Of the 25 players to make the top lists last year, 13 made the lists this year.  Of the 10 players listed as underrated last year, two of them made a top list this year.

Batting Average

AL

Jose Altuve – HOU	.336
Mookie Betts – BOS	.309
Adrian Beltre – TEX	.306
Yuli Gurriel – HOU	.306
Manny Machado – BAL	.304
Avisail Garcia – CWS	.328
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	.319
Matt Duffy – TB	.317
Lorenzo Cain – KC / MIL	.310

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	.315
Charlie Blackmon – COL	.314
Jose Martinez – STL	.308
Scooter Gennett – CIN	.307
Joey Votto – CIN	.305
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	.319
Lorenzo Cain – KC / MIL	.310

First, the list under each top 5 are players that would be on the list if they qualified.  Two things can disqualify you for these lists.  First, you need to have over 400 at bats to be considered.  Hitters like Avisail Garcia and Matt Duffy don't have enough AB's.  Second, you have to have played the last 12 months in one league.  So J.D. Martinez and Lorenzo Cain will not qualify for any list.  Jose Altuve topped the AL list last year as well, which is just more proof he is the best pure hitter int he game today (especially looking at how much better he is than everyone else).  Beltre continues to be a top hitter in the twilight of his career.  Machado, although now a Dodger, finished his time as an Oriole in pretty strong style.

In the NL, there are a lot of Rockies and, surprisingly, Reds on this list.  Arenado and Blackmon are showing they should be considered some of the top hitters in the league.  Jose Martinez is a surprise, showing the Cardinals have a good young core to build around.  Votto topped this list last year, but it is good to see a guy like Gennett hitting as well as he is.  Overall, all of these averages are down from last year.

Home Runs

AL

Aaron Judge – NYY	47
Francisco Lindor – CLE	44
Nelson Cruz – SEA	44
Mike Trout – LAA	42
Edwin Encarnacion – CLE	42
Joey Gallo – TEX	42
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	60
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	56

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	43
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	37
Charlie Blackmon – COL	36
Kyle Schwarber – CHC	35
Trevor Story – COL	33
Eugenio Suarez – CIN	33
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	60
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	56

The most noticeable thing with these lists is the two best home run hitters of the last 12 months don't qualify because they spent time in both leagues.  J.D. Martinez followed up his crazy finish last year with the Diamondbacks with a great first half this year in Boston.  Giancarlo Stanton had an okay start in the Bronx, but he hit 33 second half home runs with the Marlins last year.  That alone puts him on the NL list.  Judge has shown no sophomore slump.  Lindor is not a name you consider a top home run guy, but he has shown some awesome power the last 12 months.  Names like Cruz, Encarnacion, and Gallo you expect to see.  Trout has been a beast as always.

Three of the six on this list are Rockies, showing they have possibly the best offense in the league.  Goldschmidt is still a premier hitter in the NL.  Schwarber has shown what he can do when he is healthy and in the lineup every day.  Suarez makes it three Reds that have made lists.  How are they so bad?  Oh yeah, they can't pitch (even though their manager was a pitching coach ... no wonder he got fired).

RBI

AL

Edwin Encarnacion – CLE	124
Khris Davis – OAK	114
Manny Machado – BAL	113
Eddie Rosario – MIN	112
Nicholas Castellanos – DET	111
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	152
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	129

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	128
Trevor Story – COL	115
Javy Baez – CHC	114
Anthony Rizzo – CHC	114
Scooter Gennett – CIN	113
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	152
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	129

Once again, Martinez and Stanton would be the class of both leagues (and by a decent margin).  There are some names you are not used to seeing on this list.  Encarnacion and Machado you expect to see, but Khris Davis has quietly been one of the most productive power hitters of the last few years in Oakland.  Rosario helped lead the Twins to their playoff berth last year.  I am surprised more people aren't talking about trading for Castellanos at the Trade Deadline.  Recently moving from third base to right field, he can play either position and is a very productive bat.

If you are keeping track, this makes a Wraparound Triple Crown for Nolan Arenado.  Also, once again, a teammate takes second.  Two Cubs are tied for third.  It might be a surprise one of them is Baez.  Also, once again there is a Red popping up.

OPS

AL

Mike Trout – LAA	1.022
Jose Ramirez – CLE	.980
Mookie Betts – BOS	.955
Aaron Judge – NYY	.938
Francisco Lindor – CLE	.924
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	1.073
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	.958

NL

Nolan Arenado – COL	1.004
Charlie Blackmon – COL	.936
Eugenio Suarez – CIN	.921
Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ	.915
Joey Votto – CIN	.913
J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS	1.073
Max Muncy – LAD	1.012
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY	.958
Jesus Aguilar – MIL	.918

As OPS is one of the stats that shows the true value of a hitter, it is not surprising when you see the list of names on the AL list (including Martinez and Stanton once again).  Trout, Ramirez (last year's Wraparound AL MVP), Betts, Judge, and Lindor are considered three of the top hitters playing right now, and this shows why.

Considering Arenado has a Triple Crown over this stretch, it is no surprise he tops the AL list in OPS.  Once again, a teammate is second.  Still, no one gives Charlie Blackmon enough credit for just how good he is.  Suarez and Votto show up again to remind us just how good Cincinnati could be.  Goldschmidt is expected to be on a list like this, and it is good to see he doesn't disappoint.  Muncy and Aguilar have had amazing first halves of 2018, but they don't have enough at bats to qualify for the full season stats.

Wins

AL

Corey Kluber – CLE	23
Luis Severino – NYY	23
Carlos Carrasco – CLE	19
Charlie Morton – HOU	19
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	19

NL

Jon Lester – CHC	20
Aaron Nola – PHI	18
Max Scherzer – WAS	18
Zach Godley – ARZ	16
Jon Gray – COL	16
Zack Greinke – ARZ	16

Most stat guys in baseball call the win a useless stat in today's game.  I wouldn't quite go that far.  If your team wins when you take the mound, there is value there.  Looking at the names on these lists, they are exactly who you would expect to see as the top pitchers in the league (especially the AL list).  Kluber and Severino hit a total that hasn't been hit in an actual season since 2011.  Carrasco shows the strength of the Indians' starting rotation just like Morton and Verlander show the same about the Astros.  This is an impressive list, especially considering Kluber, Carrasco, and Dylan Bundy topped last year's list with 18.

Lester is the only NL pitcher to hit the 20 win mark.  Scherzer and Greinke show they are still elite.  Nola, Gray, and Godley show they are young aces in the making.

ERA (150 IP minimum)

AL

Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	2.15
Luis Severino – NYY	2.30
Corey Kluber – CLE	2.32
Trevor Bauer – CLE	2.54
Chris Sale – BOS	2.59

NL

Jacob deGrom – NYM	2.40
Max Scherzer – WAS	2.70
Aaron Nola – PHI	2.78
Jake Arrieta – CHC / PHI	2.86
Kyle Hendricks – CHC	3.20
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	3.18

Two things strike me about these lists.  First, this shows pretty clearly that the AL has the best pitchers.  Only one of the NL pitchers would even crack the AL top 5.  Considering the AL also had the top stats when it came to hitting, and that AL lineups are harder to navigate with a DH instead of a pitcher, this is really impressive.  The second thing I noticed is how hard it was to find pitchers that pitched 150 innings.  With the emergence of super bullpens, this is getting harder and harder for starters to do.  Verlander has been insane, with Severino and Kluber showing their win totals aren't a fluke.  Bauer shows again that Cleveland's rotation is ridiculous.  Sale shows that he earned his All Star Game start.

Jacob deGrom has been a great pitcher on a bad team, being this year's best Met pitcher.  Scherzer, Arrieta and Hendricks show they are still among the league's best.  Once again, there is Aaron Nola popping up.  He has been awesome.

Overall ERA

AL

Lou Trivino – OAK	1.22
Craig Kimbrel – BOS	1.75
Aroldis Chapman – NYY	2.07
David Robertson – CWS / NYY	2.12
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	2.15
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	1.47
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	1.84

NL

Brandon Morrow – LAD / CHC	1.79
Trevor Rosenthal – STL	1.88
Kenley Jansen – LAD	2.10
Stephen Strasburg – WAS	2.32
Jacob deGrom – NYM	2.40
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	1.47
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	1.84

Tops on this list for the AL is a recent call-up for the A's that has gotten off to a great start.  Next you have top closers Kimbrel and Chapman.  Robertson was the closer for the White Sox and is now part of the crazy bullpen for the Yankees.  It is always impressive when a starter makes this list, and Verlander has done it.

Morrow made an easy transition from Dodgers setup man to Cubs closer.  Rosenthal hasn't actually pitched this year after having Tommy John surgery.  He will be an interesting free agent next offseason.  Jansen is expected to be near the top of this list every year.  Strasburg had an insane finish to last year, but injuries have kept him below the innings limit.  Again, deGrom deserves better.  Ineligible for either list are Doolittle and Treinan, who were actually traded for each other last year.

Strikeouts

AL

Chris Sale – BOS	318
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	293
Corey Kluber – CLE	274
Trevor Bauer – CLE	268
Luis Severino – NYY	250
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	279

NL

Max Scherzer – WAS	277
Jacob deGrom – NYM	258
Aaron Nola – PHI	234
Patrick Corbin – ARZ	232
Jon Gray – COL	213
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	279

Sale and Scherzer topped these lists last year, and topped them again this year.  Sale was able to reach that magical 300 strikeout total with Verlander coming very close.  Just like every NL hitting list needs at least two Rockies, each AL pitching list needs two Indians.  Severino rounds out the list, showing he is an emerging young ace for the Yanks.  Gerrit Cole has become the latest pitcher to show a career resurrection since joining the Astros.

After Mad Max, we see some familiar names.  Nola and deGrom keep popping up over and over.  Corbin shows the Diamondbacks have a strong rotation as well.  Gray, once he finds some consistency, will be a household name with the rest of these pitchers.

Innings Pitched

AL

Corey Kluber – CLE	244
Justin Verlander – DET / HOU	238 2/3
Trevor Bauer – CLE	220
Chris Sale – BOS	215 2/3
Luis Severino – NYY	215
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	223 2/3

NL

Aaron Nola – PHI	216 2/3
Jacob deGrom – NYM	213 2/3
Clayton Richard – SD	211 1/3
Patrick Corbin – ARZ	210 2/3
Zack Greinke – ARZ	207 2/3
Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU	223 2/3

This is always an interesting list to me.  It shows which pitchers might be overworked and due for a slump or an injury in the second half of this season.  Of the five on this list last year, only two have returned to the list (Verlander, Sale).  Kluber is a machine (Klu-bot), but 244 innings is a lot, especially considering this doesn't include the last two playoff runs.  Verlander is always on this list, and seems to one immune to breaking down under a heavy workload.  Bauer is such a strange and unusual modern pitcher.  I don't see him breaking down either.  Sale is such a skinny guy with a strange delivery.  He could be Randy Johnson and never break down, or he could be due for some problems.  I am worried about Severino.  He is such a young player, and 215 innings is a lot (again, not counting playoffs last year).

Of the 6 players on last year's list, none have returned to the list.  Nola is a surprise at the top, showing again that he has been the Phillies' workhorse.  It might be deGrom's turn to have arm issues, as every one of the Mets aces has had those issues.  Richard has quietly been a steady pitcher for the Padres the last few seasons.  Then we have the top two Diamondbacks pitchers.  It makes sense for these totals to be so much less than the AL totals since they have to worry about hitting and pinch hitters.

Saves

AL

Edwin Diaz – SEA	57
Craig Kimbrel – BOS	42
Aroldis Chapman – NYY	40
Alex Colome – TB / SEA	34
Cody Allen – CLE	34
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	43
Fernando Rodney – MIA / ARZ / MIN	38
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	37

NL

Kenley Jansen – LAD	47
Brad Hand – SD	43
Wade Davis – CHC / COL	43
Felipe Vazquez – PIT	38
Corey Knebel – MIL	36
Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS	43
Fernando Rodney – MIA / ARZ / MIN	38
Blake Treinan – WAS / OAK	37

By far, the leader in saves the last 12 months has been Diaz, who almost set the record for most saves before the All Star Break.  This has been greatly helped by all the close games the Mariners have played.  Kimbrel and Chapman are thought to be the old standards you expect to see on this list every year.  Colome was a top closer before he was traded to Seattle to be Diaz's setup man.  Allen has been the back end of a great bullpen for quite some time.  Not eligible are the trade brother in Doolittle and Treinan as well as the Fernando Rodney Experience.

If you were to pick one closer you want on the mound in the 9th of a must-win game, I think Jansen might be the most popular pick.  The second best NL closer over the last 12 months, Brad Hand, is now the second best lefty specialist in the Indians' bullpen.  It feels like everyone always forgets how good Wade Davis is.  One of the few bright spots for the Pirates has been their closer Vazquez.  Knebel is the great closer at the end of a great bullpen in Milwaukee.

Underrated Hitters

Scooter Gennett – CIN

Eugenio Suarez – CIN

Whit Merrifield – KC

Nicholas Castellanos – DET

Javy Baez – CHC

One of my favorite parts of this exercise is finding the guys whose stats far outweigh their current reputation.  After hitting a huge game-tying home run in the All Star Game, more people will now know Scooter Gennett's name.  Eugenio Suarez has been possibly a top 5 third basemen over the last 12 months.  Whit Merrifield should be a top trade option for many teams over the next few weeks.  I already talked about Castellanos and how he has flown under the radar.  Some might be surprised to see Javy Baez on this list, but I think he has been more known for his antics and his defense.  It is easy to miss how good he has become at the plate.

Underrated Pitchers

Aaron Nola – PHI

Trevor Bauer – CLE

James Paxton – SEA

Carlos Carrasco – CLE

Blake Snell – TB

On almost every list, Aaron Nola was there.  He is one of the best pitchers in the league, and if the Phillies make the playoffs, he will be known for what he is.  Trevor Bauer has been a key member of the Indians rotation, but it is easy to be overshadowed by Kluber.  This might just be because I am a Mariners fan, but I feel like all things Mariners are underrated.  James Paxton is an ace whose stats show he should be in the conversation with the top pitchers in the league.  If Bauer is overshadowed by Kluber, Carlos Carrasco is overshadowed by both.  Blake Snell has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, but he was even underrated by his fellow players, taking an injury to get him on the All Star Team this year.

The Ineligibles

J.D. Martinez – DET / ARZ / BOS

Giancarlo Stanton – MIA / NYY

Gerrit Cole – PIT / HOU

Before I get into the MVP's and Cy Young winners for the Wraparound Season, I have to mention a couple ineligibles.  J.D. Martinez has been the best hitter over the last 12 months, and it isn't even close.  Regardless of league, he tops almost every statistical category.  Giancarlo Stanton ended his time in Miami with one of the greatest second halves in MLB history.  It could be said his time in the Bronx so far has been disappointing, but when you are comparing it to 2017 (and his teammate Aaron Judge), it is really hard to exceed expectations.  Gerrit Cole seems to finally be turning into the ace everyone hoped he would be when he was a #1 pick in the draft.  It is like the Astros of the 2010's are like the Braves of the 1990's.  They make pitchers great.

AL Wraparound MVP

Mike Trout – LAA

Jose Ramirez – CLE

Mookie Betts – BOS

Francisco Lindor – CLE

Aaron Judge – NYY

For awhile, I thought Mike Trout's legacy was a result of the WAR era.  WAR was built for players like Trout.  However, he is a top hitter in the league, a top defender in the league.  He is the best player out there.  I am starting to agree with those that say he could go down as a top 5 player of all time.  Jose Ramirez topped my underrated player list last year, and now everyone is realizing how good he is.  Mookie Betts gets all the notoriety, but has definitely earned it with an outstanding first half.  Francisco Lindor might end up being the best of all the great young shortstops in the league right now.  Then there is Aaron Judge.  I keep waiting for something to show that he is too good to be true, but nothing has come up yet.

NL Wraparound MVP

Nolan Arenado – COL

Charlie Blackmon – COL

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ

Freddie Freeman – ATL

Joey Votto – CIN

I think a Triple Crown is reason enough to get the MVP.  Nolan Arenado still needs to be given the credit he deserves for how good he has been.  The same could be said for Charlie Blackmon.  These two teammates (Trevor Story could be part of the conversation too) make the Rockies a team no one wants to face in the playoffs.  Paul Goldschmidt might be the most overlooked superstar of the last decade.  Freddie Freeman has been the leader of possibly the biggest surprise team of this season.  No list of the NL's best hitters is complete without Joey Votto.

AL Wraparound Cy Young

Justin Verlander – DET / HOU

Corey Kluber – CLE

Chris Sale – BOS

Luis Severino – NYY

Trevor Bauer – CLE

This list was the easiest to make as these five pitchers topped almost every single statistical category I tabulated.  Justin Verlander has found his form again and is cementing his case as a no-doubt Hall of Famer.  Corey Kluber anchors one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  Chris Sale is a freak that is one of only three pitchers to start three straight All Star Games on the mound.  Luis Severino might be the best young pitcher to come along in some time.  Trevor Bauer, again, deserves more credit than he gets.  By the way, the top three on this list is the same as last year.  Different order, but the same.

NL Wraparound Cy Young

Max Scherzer – WAS

Jacob deGrom – NYM

Aaron Nola – PHI

Patrick Corbin – ARZ

Zack Greinke – ARZ

One of the most significant parts of this list is who is missing.  Clayton Kershaw, thought to be one of the best pitchers of his generation, has been so injured and banged up over the last 12 months that he didn't even make my list of the top 156 pitchers statistically of the last 12 months.  Max Scherzer was number one last year, and is number one again.  Like Verlander, he seems to only get better.  There is a reason so many teams want Jacob deGrom this Trade Deadline.  He is really really good.  (On a side note, also missing the top 156 was deGrom teammate Noah Syndergaard.)  Aaron Nola will soon have the reputation that matches his skill.  Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke show why the Diamondbacks made the playoffs last year and are in position to do it again this year.  They have put together a great starting rotation.

Top Relievers

Edwin Diaz – SEA

Kenley Jansen – LAD

Craig Kimbrel – BOS

Sean Doolittle – OAK / WAS

Brad Hand – SD

Although he joined the long list of closers to blow a save at the All Star Game, it is hard to deny the dominance of Edwin Diaz over the last 12 months.  Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel might be the most trusted arms in each league because they have shown they can do it year after year.  Sean Doolittle has been filthy for several years now.  Being in DC might actually get him some recognition for it.  The Indians picking up Brad Hand has the potential to have just as much impact on the playoffs (maybe more) as the Dodgers picking up Machado.

To see all the stats gathered for the Wraparound Season, click the link below:

2017-2018 Wraparound Season Stats