2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #25

The Chicago Cubs had a solid season in 2023, almost making the playoffs.  So ... they fired their manager.  Would the change in leadership lead to more success?

2023 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Dansby Swanson

MIP - Kyle Hendricks

PTW - Hayden Wesneski

FP - Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

2023 Results

#17 - 83-79, 2nd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Nico Hoerner

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Steele

The Cubs were about what I thought they would be in 2023, even though they may have done it in a different way.  Dansby Swanson, their prize of last off-season, was an All Star and got MVP votes despite being average at the plate.  Kyle Hendricks had a pretty good bounce back year also.  The surprises of 2023 were starter Justin Steele, infielder Nico Hoerner, and the resurrection of Cody Bellinger.  They were in the conversation for a playoff spot right to the end, finishing only 1 game out of a Wild Card berth.  By all accounts, 2023 was a pretty successful season from a big brand working their way back to the top.

Additions / Subtractions

So why did they fire their manager?!?  David Ross, a fan favorite back to his playing days, is out.  This move had nothing to do with David Ross and had everything to do with the fact that they could upgrade to Craig Counsell, who left the rival Brewers for the big market and the pig payday.  Three other additions of note: one got a lot of press, one got a little press, and one got very little, but all were significant.  First, Cody Bellinger finally re-signed with the Cubs after his huge turnaround season.  Next, the Cubs signed Japanese import Shota Imanaga to replace Marcus Stroman in the rotation.  He was a top pitcher in Japan and could turn into a huge signing.  Then, a small trade of prospects brought to the Cubs Michael Busch, who will be on the Opening Day roster and is set to have a big impact for the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Cody Bellinger

One of the most fascinating free agency cases this off-season was Cody Bellinger.  He's been an MVP, he's been one of the worst hitters in baseball, and last year he made a triumphant return to his old form.  However, heading into free agency, which player do you pay?  Bellinger wanted to be paid like the potential MVP candidate, while clubs were more skeptical that he was back.  The Cubs, more out of necessity, finally paid him, but waited till after Spring Training had already started to do so.  Now, they have significant funds invested in the Bellinger of 2023.  If he continues to show that's once again who he is, the Cubs lineup could be quite potent.  If not, the Cubs could be stuck with the contract they didn't want.

Most Important Pitcher

Shota Imanaga

I thought about going with Justin Steele here after his huge breakout in 2023, but Shota Imanaga might determine the true success of this pitching staff.  Japanese pitchers have had mixed success in the majors.  When they are good, they're really good.  When they're not, they can really struggle.  Imanaga has a chance to be really good and an ace of the staff like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Shohei Ohtani, but he also could fall into the category of Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, and Yusei Kikuchi.

Prospect to Watch

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The Cubs have a bright future, with 7 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these is ready to break out in 2024 in Pete Crow-Armstrong.  Ranked the 16th best prospect in all of baseball, Crow-Armstrong is a 21 year old lefty outfielder that the Cubs acquired a few years ago in the Javier Baez trade with the Mets.  He is set to be a solid hitter with okay power, but his best tools are his speed and fielding ability.  He is a future Gold Glove winner in centerfield.  The Cubs are excited to give him the opportunity in 2024 to show what he's got.

2024 Predictions

4th in NL Central

The Cubs are on their way back to the top, so why are they so low?  They are in a weird division that literally anyone could win.  Someone has to finish in first, and someone has to finish in last.  Where some divisions are unpredictable because of how many elite teams there are, this division is unpredictable because all the teams are good but not great.  The Cubs are in the middle of that and have enough question marks that they could end up near the bottom of the standings.

Fearless Prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong will win a 2024 Gold Glove.

Why wait?  If Pete Crow-Armstrong is as good as they say he is, the defense will transfer over immediately.  If the defense is as elite as it is supposed to be, this reality will only be held back by his playing time in his rookie season.  If he hits, he will get enough playing time to make this happen.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #15

The Chicago Cubs have completed a full reset of their roster from the core that won the World Series in 2016.  Is this new core ready to compete?

2022 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Nico Hoerner

MIP - Marcus Stroman

PTW - Brennen Davis

2022 Results

#19 - 74-88, 3rd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ian Happ

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Marcus Stroman

The Cubs quietly had a decent season in 2022.  They never really felt like they were in contention, but they remained competitive throughout the whole season.  One of the biggest revelations of the 2022 season for the Cubs was the solid rookie outing for Japanese import Seiya Suzuki.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason for the Cubs was all about officially ending one era and starting a new one.  They watched Willson Contreras join the Cardinals in free agency, marking the departure of one of the only remaining players from the World Series team.  To fill the leadership void, the Cubs signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a huge deal.  Then they invested in some bounce back reclamation projects.  This came in the form of starter Jameson Taillon, first basemen Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, and most notably, centerfielder Cody Bellinger.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Cubs signed Swanson to be the cornerstone of their future, and he will be counted on to start earning his big contract immediately.  He earned the big payday too.  Last season was his best in the big leagues, hitting .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI's, and a 115 OPS+ while playing every game and earning his first Gold Glove.  The Cubs are paying him like that was just the start of his greatness.  If the Cubs are taking a step forward in 2023, he will have to prove that's true.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

What appears to be the final remaining player from the Cubs glory days, Kyle Hendricks has really fallen off the last few seasons.  In fact, 2021 and 2022 were his worst seasons in the big leagues.  In 2022, injuries kept him to only 16 starts and 84 innings.  He almost pitched more in the COVID shortened 2020 season than in 2022.  He doesn't need to bounce all the way back to the elite level that led the league in ERA in 2016, but the Cubs need him to bounce back in some way.  Their pitching staff feels very makeshift and random entering the year.  Hendricks returning to form would provide some much needed stability.

Prospect to Watch

Hayden Wesneski

With the Cubs pitching staff less set than their lineup, there will be opportunities for a player like Hayden Wesneski to have an impact in 2023.  Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross, Wesneski had a chance to get in 6 games last fall with some pretty good success.  The 25 year old starter is thought to have a very high floor with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.  Wesneski enters 2023 as the Cubs #5 prospect in their farm system, which ranks middle of the pack in the league.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

I like where the Cubs are at!  I think they are definitely heading in the right direction.  Dansby Swanson was a perfect choice to be the new face of their franchise, their new core is starting to develop nicely, and their pitching has some upside.  I look for the Cubs to be a surprise team in 2023.  They probably won't contend for a playoff spot, but they might be in the conversation for a Wild Card down the stretch, especially since they are in one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Fearless Prediction

Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

Over the last season or two, one of the perpetual storylines around the Cubs has been if Ian Happ will be traded at any point.  Happ has been one of those bridge players who broke out on the scene in 2017 just after the World Series run and has been one of their best players the last few years.  Now he is in his last year of club control and will be looking for a big payday next offseason.  The Cubs also have a ton of outfield depth in their farm system, with some ready to contribute at some point this season.  Look for Ian Happ to be moved in July for a young, big league ready arm.  A move like this would be a perfect opportunity to sell while still competing down the stretch, even if it might not be a popular move with Cubs fans.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

 #3

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally broke through and took the top prize in 2020 for the first time since 1988.  Is this the start of a new dynasty in LA?

2020 Predictions

#1 - 1st in NL West, win World Series

MIH - Corey Seager

MIP - Julio Urias

PTW - Dustin May

2020 Result

#1 - 43-17, 1st in NL West, won World Series

I will once again brag that I correctly predicted the World Series matchup and result!  The Dodgers have been one of the most talented teams in the league for awhile now, but finally they took the top prize.  They seem to only ever get better and stronger and deeper.

Additions / Subtractions

Even after winning the World Series, the Dodgers couldn't be content.  They had to get better, especially after seeing the crazy moves made by the division rival Padres.  Enter 2020 Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer.  If any team didn't need another starting pitcher, it was the Dodgers.  Now they have the most elite rotations in memory with Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, David Price, and Tony Gonsolin all in a position to get starts throughout the season.  In terms of the lineup, they re-signed third baseman Justin Turner while they let second baseman Kike Hernandez sign elsewhere, clearing room for former top prospect Gavin Lux to start every day.

Most Important Hitter

Will Smith

The Dodgers lineup is loaded with at least three potential MVP candidates in Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager.  However, the key to their lineup might be catcher Will Smith, not necessarily for what he brings offensively but what he brings behind the plate.  Smith is entering his third full season in the big leagues, and he has always been able to hit.  His work defensively will be much more crucial as he looks to be the everyday catcher in 2021, especially considering the dream team pitching staff that is throwing to him.

Most Important Pitcher

Kenley Jansen

The starting rotation is deep and elite.  The bullpen is just as deep, but there are definite questions as to how elite they are at the back end.  Kenley Jansen has been the closer in LA for almost a decade.  His peak was in 2017 where he had 41 saves, a 1.32 ERA, and earned both Cy Young and MVP votes.  The last three seasons have been borderline average for Jansen, so much so that there has been talk of hi keeping his closer job.  Now the 33 year old is looking for a bounce back season to keep his job and keep the rest the back end of that bullpen elite.

Prospect to Watch

Keibert Ruiz

Along with bringing in some top talents through trades and free agency, the Dodgers have been incredibly good at building from within in recent years.  Whether it is Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Will Smith, Walker Buehler, or Julio Urias, the Dodgers constantly develop talent into stars and rarely trade away their top prospects.  Not many of the top prospects are projected to help the big club this season (and with the veteran depth they have, that's no surprise).  The one most likely to have an impact in the majors is top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz.  Ruiz is one that the Dodgers have been protecting the last few seasons in the big trades they have pulled off.  Now he will either be the trade chip they need to make another big splash or provide some depth behind the plate behind Will Smith and Austin Barnes.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL West, lose in NLCS

Are the Dodgers the most talented roster in the league?  Yes.  Are they the defending champions?  Yes.  Are they the favorites to repeat?  Yes.  With all that said, only twice in the 21st century have the defending champs even made the World Series the next year (2001 Yankees, 2009 Phillies).  No one has repeated as champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees won three in a row.  The last seven seasons have even had seven different champions.  The Dodgers have the talent to have that kind of run, but it is extremely hard to do.  There is enough parody in baseball right now that I think the Dodgers fall short of the Fall Classic in 2021.  At the same time, this year might be the easiest year to repeat with their depth and the short season in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

This is the last year Clayton Kershaw wears Dodger blue.

Clayton Kershaw is going to go down as one of the greatest pitchers of all time.  He is entering a contract year as a 33 year old, and looking at a roster filled with megadeals and superstars looking for megadeals.  At some point the Dodgers have to run out of money, right?  They just paid Mookie Betts last year, they paid Trevor Bauer this year, they need to decide who will be their shortstop of the future and give him a big payday (whether it is Corey Seager or one of the other superstar free agent shortstops), young stars like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler will need to be paid soon, and they still have some other big contracts on the books like A.J. Pollock and David Price.  You have to think Kershaw will either need to take a huge hometown discount or move on to a team that needs a star, like Kershaw's hometown Rangers.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Los Angeles Dodgers

#5

The Los Angeles Dodgers won their fourth straight division title in 2016, but have yet to see all these postseason appearances result in even a World Series birth.  Will 2017 be more of the same, or bring about a change in fate for the better or worse?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

Yasiel Puig will be traded by the Trade Deadline.

2016 Results

91-71, 1st in NL West, lost in NLCS

For awhile, people were wondering if Clayton Kershaw's Dodgers could win a postseason series, let alone make a deep championship run.  Well, in 2016 Kershaw stepped up and led his team passed the NLDS only to run into the buzzsaw that was the Cubs.  For a rookie manager, and a team that had struggled in the postseason, this wasn't a bad season.  However, with the amount of money being spent on this team, anything less than a World Series is a disappointment.

Additions / Subtractions

For the most part, the Dodgers were fairly quiet this offseason.  They added some outfield depth in Franklin Gutierrez.  However, the big story around them all offseason was not if they were going to trade for a second baseman, but which second baseman were they going to trade for.  After being linked to the Twins' Brian Dozier for most of the offseason, the Dodgers pulled the trigger on the Rays' Logan Forsythe.

Most Important Hitter

Yasmani Grandal

With all the stars on the Dodgers, a guy like Yasmani Grandal is easily overlooked.  However, he has been one of the most productive catchers offensively in the entire league over the last few seasons.  Acquired from the Padres in the strange Matt Kemp deal, Grandal put up 27 homers in 2016.  With emerging stars like Corey Seager and Justin Turner anchoring the heart of the order with a professional hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, a bat like Yasmani Grandal, if he keeps up this production, could emerge as an unlikely star that adds to the depth of the batting order.

Most Important Pitcher

Rich Hill

The starting rotation, in a lot of ways, still feels like Clayton Kershaw and everybody else.  Ever since Zack Greinke left for Arizona before last season, the Dodgers' rotation has lacked a lot of depth.  Mid-season last year, the Dodgers acquired Rich Hill from the A's.  Hill had been working to resurrect his career, and had successfully done so.  Now he is a 37 year old starter and is being counted on to be, at the least, a complement to Kershaw.  At the most, he will be looked to as the second ace of the Dodgers' staff.

Player to Watch

Cody Bellinger

A strong farm system is one that can absorb blockbuster trades that help the team now while not fully giving up the future.  That is what the Dodgers have.  Although they traded away a big arm like Jose De Leon to bring in Logan Forsythe, they still have phenoms like Julio Urias and reigning Rookie of the Year Corey Seager who played last season, as well as a guy like Cody Bellinger who is set to make his debut this season.  Depending on how he progresses, and how well the Dodgers' outfield plays, this 21 year old outfielder might be seen mid-season or as a September call-up.  Either way, if the Dodgers end up making a postseason run, look for Bellinger to be an impact player down the stretch much like Seager was in 2015.

2017 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in NLDS

The Dodgers seem to be a great regular season team, but not a strong postseason team.  2017 should bring about more of the same.  They should easily win the division this year.  However, once they hit the playoffs, I see them struggling again.  I don't see them having improved themselves enough to beat either of the teams I have ahead of them.  Almost any other team would feel some sense of success in a season like this.  For the Dodgers, this looks like it will be another season of disappointment.

Fearless Prediction

Dodgers will finish runner-up in both the MVP and Cy Young races.

Every year Clayton Kershaw plays is a year he will contend for the Cy Young Award.  I see him coming up just short in 2017, but he will still be quite dominant.  On the flip side, Corey Seager is emerging as one of the great superstars in our game today.  He might not get all the way to winning the MVP this season, but he will get close.  Look for him to win at least one in the next 5 years.