2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #15

The Chicago Cubs have completed a full reset of their roster from the core that won the World Series in 2016.  Is this new core ready to compete?

2022 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Nico Hoerner

MIP - Marcus Stroman

PTW - Brennen Davis

2022 Results

#19 - 74-88, 3rd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ian Happ

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Marcus Stroman

The Cubs quietly had a decent season in 2022.  They never really felt like they were in contention, but they remained competitive throughout the whole season.  One of the biggest revelations of the 2022 season for the Cubs was the solid rookie outing for Japanese import Seiya Suzuki.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason for the Cubs was all about officially ending one era and starting a new one.  They watched Willson Contreras join the Cardinals in free agency, marking the departure of one of the only remaining players from the World Series team.  To fill the leadership void, the Cubs signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a huge deal.  Then they invested in some bounce back reclamation projects.  This came in the form of starter Jameson Taillon, first basemen Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, and most notably, centerfielder Cody Bellinger.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Cubs signed Swanson to be the cornerstone of their future, and he will be counted on to start earning his big contract immediately.  He earned the big payday too.  Last season was his best in the big leagues, hitting .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI's, and a 115 OPS+ while playing every game and earning his first Gold Glove.  The Cubs are paying him like that was just the start of his greatness.  If the Cubs are taking a step forward in 2023, he will have to prove that's true.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

What appears to be the final remaining player from the Cubs glory days, Kyle Hendricks has really fallen off the last few seasons.  In fact, 2021 and 2022 were his worst seasons in the big leagues.  In 2022, injuries kept him to only 16 starts and 84 innings.  He almost pitched more in the COVID shortened 2020 season than in 2022.  He doesn't need to bounce all the way back to the elite level that led the league in ERA in 2016, but the Cubs need him to bounce back in some way.  Their pitching staff feels very makeshift and random entering the year.  Hendricks returning to form would provide some much needed stability.

Prospect to Watch

Hayden Wesneski

With the Cubs pitching staff less set than their lineup, there will be opportunities for a player like Hayden Wesneski to have an impact in 2023.  Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross, Wesneski had a chance to get in 6 games last fall with some pretty good success.  The 25 year old starter is thought to have a very high floor with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.  Wesneski enters 2023 as the Cubs #5 prospect in their farm system, which ranks middle of the pack in the league.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

I like where the Cubs are at!  I think they are definitely heading in the right direction.  Dansby Swanson was a perfect choice to be the new face of their franchise, their new core is starting to develop nicely, and their pitching has some upside.  I look for the Cubs to be a surprise team in 2023.  They probably won't contend for a playoff spot, but they might be in the conversation for a Wild Card down the stretch, especially since they are in one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Fearless Prediction

Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

Over the last season or two, one of the perpetual storylines around the Cubs has been if Ian Happ will be traded at any point.  Happ has been one of those bridge players who broke out on the scene in 2017 just after the World Series run and has been one of their best players the last few years.  Now he is in his last year of club control and will be looking for a big payday next offseason.  The Cubs also have a ton of outfield depth in their farm system, with some ready to contribute at some point this season.  Look for Ian Happ to be moved in July for a young, big league ready arm.  A move like this would be a perfect opportunity to sell while still competing down the stretch, even if it might not be a popular move with Cubs fans.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#25

The Baltimore Orioles have spent most of the last 5 years as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Are they finally ready to turn the corner and start to compete again?

2020 Predictions

#30 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Hanser Alberto

MIP - John Means

PTW - Ryan Mountcastle

FP - The Orioles will cut more payroll than is earned by the rest of their 25 man roster.

2020 Results

#26 - 25-35 - 4th in AL East

The Orioles surprised everyone and jumped out to a hot start in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.  Eventually they cooled off, and probably thanks to the short season, did not have enough time to fall all the way back to the cellar of the division.  It was good to see the Orioles relevant again, even if it was just for a couple weeks.

Additions / Subtractions

The Orioles made some small adjustments to a budding young roster.  They replaced shortstop Jose Iglesias with veteran Freddy Galvis.  Second baseman Hanser Alberto moved on to the Royals.  On the pitching side, the Orioles traded away Alex Cobb while signing Felix Hernandez on a minor league deal.  The biggest addition for the Orioles this season wasn't a transaction at all.  Trey Mancini is back after a year of battling colon cancer.  He will be the strong veteran presence in the young clubhouse in Baltimore.

Most Important Pitcher

Anthony Santander

Through the 2020 season, Anthony Santander led the Orioles' roster in WAR while starting to emerge as a low key potential star.  Entering his age 26 season, he has been an above average hitter (in terms of OPS+) in both of his full seasons so far.  The Orioles are starting to reach that point in their rebuild where they are starting to see which young players they can start to count on to be a part of that young core moving forward.  Santander seems to be one of the centerpieces.

Most Important Pitcher

John Means

The Orioles have some great young pitching starting to work their way through the farm system.  At the top of the system though, right now they are a little thin.  Counting on guys like King Felix and Wade LeBlanc to be key pieces in the rotation are showing how they are just waiting for the young kids to be ready.  The one young pitcher that has started to establish himself in the big leagues is John Means.  After being an All Star in 2019, he had an average season in 2020.  He needs to bounce back and emerge as an ace to be a part of the plans moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

Adley Rutschman

At some point in the 2021 season, the Orioles' news cycle will start to focus on when it will be time to start the clock on former #1 overall pick Adley Rutschman.  The top overall pick in 2019 and the #2 overall prospect in all of baseball, Rutschman is a switch hitting catcher that is the future face of the Baltimore Orioles.  The only question is if he will announce his presence with authority this season or next.

2021 Prediction

4th in AL East

I fully realize predicting the Orioles to finish above the Red Sox this season is quite a bit of a stretch.  The Red Sox are pretty easily the more talented roster.  With that said, the Orioles had some pretty decent success in 2020, and for a young team like this to get a string of success like that, the confidence can only build knowing that they are capable of winning.  The Orioles seem to finally be moving up, while the Red Sox seem stagnant at best.  For that alone, it was worth predicting the Orioles to repeat in fourth place.

Fearless Prediction

Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.

Okay, this isn't a very bold prediction but it is worth mentioning.  As soon as Trey Mancini sees the field in a regular season game and shows any shadow of the player he was before cancer struck, this award will pretty much be in the bag.  And fully deserved.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

#23

The Baltimore Orioles had a very disappointing season in 2017, going from the playoffs to the cellar.  Which team will we see in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in AL East

Manny Machado will be starting at shortstop by the end of the season.

2017 Results

75-87, 5th in AL East

The Orioles fought through some key injuries and some low production out of some key performers to finish at the bottom of a very competitive AL East.  As core players like Adam Jones and Chris Davis begin to show some age, players like Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini emerged as potential stars moving forward.  As for Manny Machado, he did not have his best year.  Add this to the emergence of Tim Beckham at shortstop, and Machado was forced to stay at third base (at least until the end of that season).

Additions / Subtractions

Once again, the story of the Orioles' off-season was their inability to make any moves to improve.  They made some minor moves like adding Colby Rasmus (coming off his year sabbatical from the game) to replace Seth Smith, and signing Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman after the prices fell low enough.  In a year that many people think is the last of their current window (Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton have expiring contracts at the end of the season), they once again failed the offseason.  The biggest move they made was finally giving in to Machado's wishes of playing shortstop, even though they had Tim Beckham emerge as a quality shortstop and Machado is not projected to be on the roster next year.  Nothing they did made sense.

Most Important Hitter

Manny Machado

There are a lot of players in this lineup that could be in this spot.  Jonathan Schoop is looking to repeat his monster production from last year.  Chris Davis is trying to return to the monster seasons he had a few years back.  Mark Trumbo is trying to prove 2016 wasn't a fluke after a poor 2017.  With all that said, this season for the Orioles will be defined by what happens with Manny Machado.  He is controversially switching positions.  He is in a contract year.  Many thought he should have been traded this offseason.  Many believe he will be traded by the Trade Deadline.  Most assume this is his last Opening Day in an Orioles uniform.  What happens with Machado will define the Orioles' season.

Most Important Pitcher

Zach Britton

Similarly to Machado, Zach Britton will play a huge role in how successful the Orioles are this season.  His situation is very different though.  After rupturing his Achilles last season, Britton will not see the field until the end of May at the earliest.  Much like Machado, everyone assumes his days in Baltimore are numbered.  If he comes back and shows he is the dominant Zach Britton, it not only help out the Orioles but it makes him much more valuable in the potential trade market.  If he can't get back his dominance, the Orioles just lost the value of one of their best players.

Prospect to Watch

Austin Hays

Now let's talk about someone that will be on the Orioles' roster after this season is over.  Austin Hays is the top prospect in the organization.  A natural centerfielder, Hays got some time at the end of last season playing corner outfield for the O's.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up the everyday rightfielder after some time as he waits for Adam Jones to potentially move on after 2018.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL East

The Orioles still have some great talent.  Machado is a stud, Adam Jones still has some production left in the tank, and the bullpen is solid.  However, this organization is a mess.  Their lack of activity the last few offseasons will not allow them to compete in 2018.  The whole season will be a giant distraction waiting to see what will happen with Machado.  In the meantime, what could have been one last run will turn out to be a dumpster fire.  I had them in the cellar before the Rays completely dismantled their roster after Spring Training started.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Zach Britton will all end the season on the Orioles' roster.

This will be a lost season in Baltimore.  Logic says that when you have a lost season, you trade expiring contracts to contenders for prospects that will help you build back up.  However, the Orioles haven't done anything resembling logic for several years.  They will hold onto their assets all season, refusing to trade.  They will sign them to qualifying offers in the offseason and collect the draft pick compensation when they sign elsewhere.  Adam Jones is the only one with a chance to return, but with the direction the O's are going, I wouldn't want to.  Cut bait and run!