2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #15

The Chicago Cubs have completed a full reset of their roster from the core that won the World Series in 2016.  Is this new core ready to compete?

2022 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Nico Hoerner

MIP - Marcus Stroman

PTW - Brennen Davis

2022 Results

#19 - 74-88, 3rd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ian Happ

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Marcus Stroman

The Cubs quietly had a decent season in 2022.  They never really felt like they were in contention, but they remained competitive throughout the whole season.  One of the biggest revelations of the 2022 season for the Cubs was the solid rookie outing for Japanese import Seiya Suzuki.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason for the Cubs was all about officially ending one era and starting a new one.  They watched Willson Contreras join the Cardinals in free agency, marking the departure of one of the only remaining players from the World Series team.  To fill the leadership void, the Cubs signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a huge deal.  Then they invested in some bounce back reclamation projects.  This came in the form of starter Jameson Taillon, first basemen Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, and most notably, centerfielder Cody Bellinger.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Cubs signed Swanson to be the cornerstone of their future, and he will be counted on to start earning his big contract immediately.  He earned the big payday too.  Last season was his best in the big leagues, hitting .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI's, and a 115 OPS+ while playing every game and earning his first Gold Glove.  The Cubs are paying him like that was just the start of his greatness.  If the Cubs are taking a step forward in 2023, he will have to prove that's true.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

What appears to be the final remaining player from the Cubs glory days, Kyle Hendricks has really fallen off the last few seasons.  In fact, 2021 and 2022 were his worst seasons in the big leagues.  In 2022, injuries kept him to only 16 starts and 84 innings.  He almost pitched more in the COVID shortened 2020 season than in 2022.  He doesn't need to bounce all the way back to the elite level that led the league in ERA in 2016, but the Cubs need him to bounce back in some way.  Their pitching staff feels very makeshift and random entering the year.  Hendricks returning to form would provide some much needed stability.

Prospect to Watch

Hayden Wesneski

With the Cubs pitching staff less set than their lineup, there will be opportunities for a player like Hayden Wesneski to have an impact in 2023.  Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross, Wesneski had a chance to get in 6 games last fall with some pretty good success.  The 25 year old starter is thought to have a very high floor with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.  Wesneski enters 2023 as the Cubs #5 prospect in their farm system, which ranks middle of the pack in the league.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

I like where the Cubs are at!  I think they are definitely heading in the right direction.  Dansby Swanson was a perfect choice to be the new face of their franchise, their new core is starting to develop nicely, and their pitching has some upside.  I look for the Cubs to be a surprise team in 2023.  They probably won't contend for a playoff spot, but they might be in the conversation for a Wild Card down the stretch, especially since they are in one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Fearless Prediction

Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

Over the last season or two, one of the perpetual storylines around the Cubs has been if Ian Happ will be traded at any point.  Happ has been one of those bridge players who broke out on the scene in 2017 just after the World Series run and has been one of their best players the last few years.  Now he is in his last year of club control and will be looking for a big payday next offseason.  The Cubs also have a ton of outfield depth in their farm system, with some ready to contribute at some point this season.  Look for Ian Happ to be moved in July for a young, big league ready arm.  A move like this would be a perfect opportunity to sell while still competing down the stretch, even if it might not be a popular move with Cubs fans.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #21

The Chicago Cubs pulled out a division win in 2020, but were swept out of the expanded playoff field pretty quick.  Now there are talks of cutting payroll and a potential tearing down of the roster that broke the dreaded curse.  Will 2021 see more success or be the start of the rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#18 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Willson Contreras

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - Nico Hoerner

2020 Results

#9 - 34-26, 1st in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

Everyone thought the Cubs were due for a down year in 2020 (at least I did).  Instead, behind rookie manager David Ross, the Cubs won the division and hosted a first round playoff series against the surprise of the 2020 season, the Miami Marlins.  The Cubs were eliminated without winning a game, leaving many to wonder if 2020 was actually a successful season or not.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cubs offseason was defined by two things: who left and who is still there.  First, leaving the club were Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish, veteran pitcher Jon Lester, and slugger Kyle Schwarber.  Also leaving was team president Theo Epstein, the man responsible for breaking the championship curses in both Boston and Chicago.  The one still there is Kris Bryant.  The Cubs are in the business of cutting payroll right now, and Bryant is due to have a big payday after the 2021 season.  Rumors swirled all offseason that he would be traded, but he is still manning the hot corner for the Cubs.  Coming in were some minor pickups like Joc Pederson, Zach Davies, and Jake Arrieta to fill in for the departing players.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

So much heading into this season revolves around Kris Bryant for the Cubs.  It reminds me some of the Rockies heading into last season being held hostage by the Nolan Arenado trade talks.  At the same time, Bryant is coming off a pretty disappointing 2020 season.  He barely cracked a .200 average with a 73 OPS+ in the shortened season.  Now Bryant is in his contract year (which many would argue shouldn't be happening thanks to service time manipulation).  Bryant's success in 2021 could lead to greater team success for the Cubs.  It could also lead to greater trade value at the deadline this year.  It could also lead to a bigger payday for Bryant next offseason.  Poor production could easily lead to more drama over what the Cubs are going to do with Kris Bryant.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

With the departures of Yu Darvish and Jon Lester, the Cubs' rotation is lacking a lot of star power and established dominance.  The holdover in the rotation is Kyle Hendricks.  Ever since he made his debut in 2014, he has quietly been a dominant force for the Cubs using control and finesse in a way that draws comparisons to Greg Maddux.  Now he is by far the main man for the Cubs.  He is going to need to continue his dominance and mentor some young pitchers ready to make an impact for the bug club.

Prospect to Watch

Brailyn Marquez

One of those young arms Hendricks will be mentoring is Brailyn Marquez.  The top prospect in the Cubs' farm system, the 22 year old lefty got one appearance in 2020 that went pretty horrifically.  Now he is competing for a spot in the rotation.  If he doesn't break Spring Training with the big club, look for him to be a call up sometime soon.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The Cubs still have a lot of talent, but the NL Central is a pretty deep division (with the exception of the Pirates).  The depth of the division, as well as the questions around what direction the team is heading, will keep the Cubs from having a huge impact in 2021.  With that said, in that division, you can't really count them out.

Fearless Prediction

There will only player in the dugot from the Cubs' World Series roster on Opening Day 2022 will be manager David Ross.

What was supposed to be a long-lasting dynasty appears to be all but over 5 years later.  All indications show there is no way Kris Bryant returns next season.  He might not even last till the end of this season.  Anthony Rizzo is in the last year of his deal, as is Javy Baez.  Jake Arrieta is only back for one year.  Willson Contreras appears to be an attractive trade chip that could be moved.  That leaves just Jason Heyward and Kyle Hendricks.  If the Cubs go full rebuild here, one or both of those players could also be moved.  The likelihood that happens is low, but it's possible the entirety of that magical team will be gone very soon.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

#3

The Chicago Cubs made history in 2016 and finally ended the curse that kept them from winning a championship since 1908.  Can they make history again in 2017 and repeat?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

Jake Arrieta will spend at least 1-2 months on the DL.

2016 Results

103-58, 1st in NL Central, won the World Series

Going into the 2016 season, few would argue against the fact that the Cubs were the most talented team in the league.  Being so young, I thought they were one or two years away from finally putting it all together.  I was wrong.  They dominated the regular season and showed that destiny was on their side by making their way all the way to the championship.  It is impressive to pull off something like this when the pressure of so much futility is on your backs.  The Cubs overcame that and did the impossible.  As for my Fearless Prediction, Jake Arrieta may not have ended up on the DL, but he did see a drop off in production as his work load finally caught up with him.

Additions / Subtractions

The scary part when you think about the 2017 Cubs is they are bringing back almost the exact same roster they had in 2016.  Very few changes were made simply because so much of their roster is so young.  Aroldis Chapman went back to the Yankees, but the Cubs traded Jorge Soler to the Royals for the dominant Wade Davis.  Jason Hammel signed elsewhere in free agency, but he was replaced with veteran Brett Anderson.  Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals, but he was replaced internally with the Cubs' outstanding farm system.  Not to mention, Kyle Schwarber is now healthy, considered one of the best young hitters in baseball.

Most Important Hitter

Jason Heyward

If anyone on the Cubs was disappointed by the way the 2016 season turned out, it was Jason Heyward.  After signing the huge contract before 2016, Heyward's bat fell asleep, leading to a .230 average with 7 home runs and 49 RBI's.  This led to Heyward watching most of the postseason from the bench.  The Cubs are talented all over the field, but unless Heyward starts to produce at the plate like he is capable of, 2016 might be remembered for both the World Series win and one of the worst free agent contracts ever given.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

For the second year in a row, a pitcher for the Cubs came out of nowhere and is now considered one of the best in the game.  2015 brought us Jake Arrieta.  2016 brought us Kyle Hendricks.  Although the Cubs' lineup is filled with young talent, their starting rotation is quite old, with Hendricks the only pitcher under 30 starting the year in the rotation.  With Jon Lester continuing to age and Jake Arrieta entering his contract year, the Cubs need Hendricks to emerge as the ace of the staff moving into the future.

Player to Watch

Albert Almora, Jr.

The player benefiting the most from the absence of Dexter Fowler in the Cubs' outfield is rookie Albert Almora, Jr.  Almora got a decent run last season, playing in 47 games.  He barely kept his rookie status for 2017, and now he is entering the season as the team's starting centerfielder.  The Cubs have an outstanding farm system, but Almora is one of the few great prospects they have that is poised to make an impact for the Cubs this season.  Some might have an impact through trade, but Almora will be patrolling the outfield for the Cubs for awhile.

2017 Prediction

1st in NL Central, lose in NLCS

The Cubs are once again the most talented team in baseball.  I see them once again having the best record in baseball.  With all that said, it is extremely hard to win back-to-back World Series championships.  It hasn't happened in almost 20 years, and it has only happened three times for a National League team.  (One of those three just happens to be the last time the Cubs won...)  The Cubs will have a good run, but I see the age of their pitching catch up to them, leaving them just short of the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

The Chicago Cubs will set the record for most wins in a season in 2017.

I see the Cubs writing a similar script to the Golden State Warriors in 2017.  The Warriors were the up-and-coming team everyone loved that played their way to a championship in 2015.  The 2016 Warriors won more games than any other NBA team in history, but they couldn't win the title.  I see the Cubs following a similar path.  Everyone loved the 2016 Cubs as they won their title.  With the makeup of this team, I could see them respond this season by having a historic run.  However, it seems every historic run ends in something less than a championship.  Look for the Cubs to top the 116 win total set by the 2001 Mariners and the 1906 Cubs.

MLB 2016: Season in Review & Postseason Predictions

The longest grind of the sports year has come to an end as game 162 was played in the baseball season.  (Well, game 161 for four teams for a variety of reasons.)  As always, the season was a wild ride, and now we gear up for some incredible postseason baseball where anything can happen.  Let's stop and take a look at the season that was, how my preseason predictions fared, and what to expect from the Fall Classic.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Toronto Blue Jays*

2.  Boston Red Sox

3.  Tampa Bay Rays

4.  Baltimore Orioles

5.  New York Yankees

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Boston Red Sox*

2.  Baltimore Orioles*

3.  Toronto Blue Jays*

4.  New York Yankees

5.  Tampa Bay Rays

I knew the Red Sox would be back, but I didn't know just how good they would be or that David Ortiz would be historic in his final season.  The Orioles constantly surprise as Buck Showalter proves once again to be one of the best managers in baseball.  One of the biggest surprises of the season was Mark Trumbo leading the league in home runs.  Toronto was able to sneak their way into the playoffs.  I had predicted a division title for the Blue Jays, but some injuries held them back.  At least my World Series prediction is still in tact!  I knew the New York Yankees were taking steps back with Chapman being traded (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED) along with Miller, Teixeira retiring, and A-Rod being forced into retirement.  What I didn't predict is how quickly the kids would come out and play like everyone expects Yankees to play.  The Tampa Bay Rays didn't have much going for them entering the season, however they always seem to surprise.  Not this year, as they found themselves in the cellar.

AL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Detroit Tigers*

2.  Kansas City Royals*

3.  Minnesota Twins

4.  Cleveland Indians

5.  Chicago White Sox

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Cleveland Indians*

2.  Detroit Tigers

3.  Kansas City Royals

4.  Chicago White Sox

5.  Minnesota Twins

I completely underestimated the Indians.  Not only did the pitching dominate, but the offense was able to produce without Michael Brantley.  The Tigers came up just short as they weren't eliminated until the last day.  They are looking older and older.  Their window might be closed.  The Royals incredible run comes to an end in 2016 as injuries derailed their season over and over.  The White Sox started hot but quickly faded to the back of the division.  Robin Ventura leaving (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED) might be a sign of the rebuilding that should have started several years ago.  The Twins were the biggest disappointment of the season as they almost made the playoffs in 2015 only end the season as the only team with 100 losses.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Houston Astros*

2.  Texas Rangers*

3.  Seattle Mariners

4.  Los Angeles Angels

5.  Oakland A's

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Texas Rangers*

2.  Seattle Mariners

3.  Houston Astros

4.  Los Angeles Angels

5.  Oakland A's

I had the Rangers in the playoffs as a Wild Card, but they showed that last year was no fluke as they dominated the division once again.  The Mariners surprised as they took their rebuilt roster to the doorstep of the playoffs.  Coming up short extends the Mariners' streak without a playoff berth to 15 seasons, the longest active streak in baseball.  The Astros had a bit of a regression this season after a surprising postseason run last year.  Watch for them to come storming back in 2017.  The Angels still have the best player in the world, but they are wasting his prime years as they have no support for him.  Oakland ended the year in full rebuild mode, getting rid of most of their Opening Day roster (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED).

NL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  New York Mets*

2.  Washington Nationals

3.  Miami Marlins

4.  Atlanta Braves

5.  Philadelphia Phillies

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Washington Nationals*

2.  New York Mets*

3.  Miami Marlins

4.  Philadelphia Phillies

5.  Atlanta Braves

I knew Dusty Baker would be a difference maker for the Nationals, however I didn't know he would be this much of a difference maker.  He turned this team back into an elite squad in one year.  The Mets somehow made it back into the playoffs even though their insane pitching rotation is a mess.  The Marlins had a positive season pointing in the right direction for the future until this last week.  The sudden and tragic passing of superstar Jose Fernandez not only came to define their season, but it has the potential to define every season for the next decade as his absence will be felt for years to come.  (Next year's All Star Game in Miami will be tough without #16 there...)  The Phillies seem to be progressing well in their rebuild as it looks like they might be an impact team sooner than was expected.  The Braves started about as bad as possible, however they ended the season on a positive note and should be riding some good momentum into their new SunTrust Park in 2017.

NL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Chicago Cubs*

2.  Pittsburgh Pirates*

3.  St. Louis Cardinals

4.  Cincinnati Reds

5.  Milwaukee Brewers

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Chicago Cubs*

2.  St. Louis Cardinals

3.  Pittsburgh Pirates

4.  Milwaukee Brewers

5.  Cincinnati Reds

I knew the Cubs were going to be good.  I had no idea they were going to be this good.  I correctly predicted that the Cardinals were finally going to miss the playoffs.  They just needed too many pieces to fall into place.  The Pirates were disappointing this season and are now talking about entertaining trade offers for superstar Andrew McCutchen.  The Brewers are in rebuild mode after trading Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED).  The Reds are stuck somewhere between rebuilding and being stuck with big veteran contracts.  They might not have bottomed out yet.

NL West

My Preseason Predictions

1.  San Francisco Giants*

2.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

3.  Arizona Diamondbacks

4.  Colorado Rockies

5.  San Diego Padres

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

2.  San Francisco Giants*

3.  Colorado Rockies

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  San Diego Padres

The Dodgers impressed this season under rookie manager Dave Roberts.  Even with an extended injury to Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers dominated.  (I was so close on my prediction with the Dodgers, but no one wanted Yasiel Puig so he wasn't traded.)  I had the Giants winning the division, which they might have done if they didn't go through one of the most inexplicable second half collapses in recent memory.  They still snuck in to the postseason though so watch out.  The Rockies are showing they are very close to being a contender in this division.  (Again, SO close on my prediction, but they chose to keep CarGo.)  The Diamondbacks proved that their season was over before it started when AJ Pollock went down the weekend before Opening Day.  It also didn't help to have disappointing seasons from their two biggest offseason acquisitions: Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.  The Padres are trying to be relevant, but their front office is proving to be a little inadequate.

Season Awards

AL Manager of the Year

1.  Terry Francona

2.  John Farrell

3.  Buck Showalter

Showalter seems to do more with less every season.  John Farrell turned around the Red Sox with aging superstars, a resurgence of Hanley Ramirez at first base, and Pablo Sandoval spending the whole season on the DL.  However, nothing beats what Terry Francona has done in Cleveland.  He is one of the best coaches of the 21st century.

NL Manager of the Year

1.  Dusty Baker

2.  Dave Roberts

3.  Joe Maddon

Joe Maddon might end up winning this as he somehow exceeded the highest expectations on any team in recent memory.  Rookie manager Dave Roberts took a dumpster fire in the Dodgers and won the division despite having a piecemeal starting rotation all season.  However, Dusty Baker showed that old school baseball people still have a place in the new school of sabermetrics.  His work with the Nationals was incredible this season.

AL Cy Young

1.  Aaron Sanchez

2.  Rick Porcello

3.  JA Happ

The Blue Jays had several pitchers step up and have career years.  JA Happ returned to Toronto and won 20 games, a rare feat in today's game.  Boston's Rick Porcello finally seemed to put everything together as he led the league in wins with 22.  However, Aaron Sanchez was the most impressive pitcher in the AL this season.  Toronto's young ace was even held back due to an innings limit, but still posted some impressive numbers.

NL Cy Young

1.  Kyle Hendricks

2.  Madison Bumgarner

3.  Jon Lester

Jon Lester showed that he is still the elite starter he was in Boston.  He definitely had more in the tank than many gave him credit for.  Madison Bumgarner once again had an elite season, which makes many teams nervous as they enter the postseason.  However, for the second year in a row, the best pitcher in the National League is a Cubs pitchers nobody knew before the season.  Kyle Hendricks had an unbelievable year that overshadowed what Lester did as well as last year's Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta.

AL MVP

1.  David Ortiz

2.  Mike Trout

3.  Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano went from the most disappointing season of his career in 2015 to career highs in many stats in 2016.  He kept coming up big in the right spots, playing his best baseball in September while his team tried to make the postseason.  The best player on the planet, no matter how bad his team is, is still Mike Trout.  He just keeps getting better.  However, this season belonged to David Ortiz.  He played his best when it was his last.  Look for him to try and be the first DH to win MVP.

NL MVP

1.  Kris Bryant

2.  Daniel Murphy

3.  Nolan Arenado

One of these days, Nolan Arenado will be recognized for how great he really is.  He led the league in home runs and RBI's this season while playing Gold Glove caliber third base.  Daniel Murphy followed up his amazing postseason last year with an MVP caliber season this year for the Nationals.  However, when in doubt, the MVP is the best player on the best team.  The Cubs were by far the best team, and Kris Bryant was by far their best player.  Look for him to win the award in his sophomore season.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

Blue Jays def. Orioles

Giants def. Mets

The Blue Jays have waited all season to get back in this position after 2015's postseason.  The game is in Toronto, which is one of the craziest venues in all of baseball.  Toronto will win.  The NL Wild Card game will be a classic.  Noah Syndergaard, the only healthy ace for the Mets, is on the mound against the possibly the best postseason pitcher of all time in Madison Bumgarner.  Look for the Mets to be MadBummed.

Divisional Series

Blue Jays def. Rangers

Red Sox def. Indians

Giants def. Cubs

Nationals def. Dodgers

The first matchup is an epic rematch from last year.  There is no way the Blue Jays let the Rangers beat them again.  The Red Sox just have too much firepower for an injury-plagued Indians team.  The Cubs are the team everyone is looking to as the favorite, but the Giants have been there before many times and feature the rotation with the proven pedigree.  I said in my preseason predictions that the Cubs would dominate the regular season, but their pitching would run out of steam in the playoffs.  I'm holding to it.  The most intriguing matchup might be the Nats and the Dodgers.  Both teams finally played how everyone thought they could.  I give the edge to the team with the more experienced manager.

Championship Series

Blue Jays def. Red Sox

Giants def. Nationals

The storybook ending for David Ortiz would be to go out on top with a ring.  However, I really think this is the right time for the Blue Jays.  Their pitching is outstanding with Happ, Sanchez, and Marcus Stroman.  They might have the best lineup in the league.  It would be an upset, but I think it's time for the Blue Jays to get back to the World Series.  In the National League, it's Dusty Baker's Nationals going up against his former team in the Giants.  Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija can shut down any lineup.  They know how to peak in the playoffs, and I don't see anything different happening this time around.

World Series

Giants def. Blue Jays

Why not go with my original prediction!  I predicted Giants over Blue Jays back before the season started, and I am going to stick to my guns.  After all, it is an even numbered year.  Besides that, the Giants just know how to get it done in the playoffs.  It will be a fun series, but look for a similar result to what we are used to seeing.

World Series MVP

Madison Bumgarner