MLB 2016: Season in Review & Postseason Predictions

The longest grind of the sports year has come to an end as game 162 was played in the baseball season.  (Well, game 161 for four teams for a variety of reasons.)  As always, the season was a wild ride, and now we gear up for some incredible postseason baseball where anything can happen.  Let's stop and take a look at the season that was, how my preseason predictions fared, and what to expect from the Fall Classic.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Toronto Blue Jays*

2.  Boston Red Sox

3.  Tampa Bay Rays

4.  Baltimore Orioles

5.  New York Yankees

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Boston Red Sox*

2.  Baltimore Orioles*

3.  Toronto Blue Jays*

4.  New York Yankees

5.  Tampa Bay Rays

I knew the Red Sox would be back, but I didn't know just how good they would be or that David Ortiz would be historic in his final season.  The Orioles constantly surprise as Buck Showalter proves once again to be one of the best managers in baseball.  One of the biggest surprises of the season was Mark Trumbo leading the league in home runs.  Toronto was able to sneak their way into the playoffs.  I had predicted a division title for the Blue Jays, but some injuries held them back.  At least my World Series prediction is still in tact!  I knew the New York Yankees were taking steps back with Chapman being traded (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED) along with Miller, Teixeira retiring, and A-Rod being forced into retirement.  What I didn't predict is how quickly the kids would come out and play like everyone expects Yankees to play.  The Tampa Bay Rays didn't have much going for them entering the season, however they always seem to surprise.  Not this year, as they found themselves in the cellar.

AL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Detroit Tigers*

2.  Kansas City Royals*

3.  Minnesota Twins

4.  Cleveland Indians

5.  Chicago White Sox

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Cleveland Indians*

2.  Detroit Tigers

3.  Kansas City Royals

4.  Chicago White Sox

5.  Minnesota Twins

I completely underestimated the Indians.  Not only did the pitching dominate, but the offense was able to produce without Michael Brantley.  The Tigers came up just short as they weren't eliminated until the last day.  They are looking older and older.  Their window might be closed.  The Royals incredible run comes to an end in 2016 as injuries derailed their season over and over.  The White Sox started hot but quickly faded to the back of the division.  Robin Ventura leaving (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED) might be a sign of the rebuilding that should have started several years ago.  The Twins were the biggest disappointment of the season as they almost made the playoffs in 2015 only end the season as the only team with 100 losses.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Houston Astros*

2.  Texas Rangers*

3.  Seattle Mariners

4.  Los Angeles Angels

5.  Oakland A's

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Texas Rangers*

2.  Seattle Mariners

3.  Houston Astros

4.  Los Angeles Angels

5.  Oakland A's

I had the Rangers in the playoffs as a Wild Card, but they showed that last year was no fluke as they dominated the division once again.  The Mariners surprised as they took their rebuilt roster to the doorstep of the playoffs.  Coming up short extends the Mariners' streak without a playoff berth to 15 seasons, the longest active streak in baseball.  The Astros had a bit of a regression this season after a surprising postseason run last year.  Watch for them to come storming back in 2017.  The Angels still have the best player in the world, but they are wasting his prime years as they have no support for him.  Oakland ended the year in full rebuild mode, getting rid of most of their Opening Day roster (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED).

NL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  New York Mets*

2.  Washington Nationals

3.  Miami Marlins

4.  Atlanta Braves

5.  Philadelphia Phillies

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Washington Nationals*

2.  New York Mets*

3.  Miami Marlins

4.  Philadelphia Phillies

5.  Atlanta Braves

I knew Dusty Baker would be a difference maker for the Nationals, however I didn't know he would be this much of a difference maker.  He turned this team back into an elite squad in one year.  The Mets somehow made it back into the playoffs even though their insane pitching rotation is a mess.  The Marlins had a positive season pointing in the right direction for the future until this last week.  The sudden and tragic passing of superstar Jose Fernandez not only came to define their season, but it has the potential to define every season for the next decade as his absence will be felt for years to come.  (Next year's All Star Game in Miami will be tough without #16 there...)  The Phillies seem to be progressing well in their rebuild as it looks like they might be an impact team sooner than was expected.  The Braves started about as bad as possible, however they ended the season on a positive note and should be riding some good momentum into their new SunTrust Park in 2017.

NL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Chicago Cubs*

2.  Pittsburgh Pirates*

3.  St. Louis Cardinals

4.  Cincinnati Reds

5.  Milwaukee Brewers

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Chicago Cubs*

2.  St. Louis Cardinals

3.  Pittsburgh Pirates

4.  Milwaukee Brewers

5.  Cincinnati Reds

I knew the Cubs were going to be good.  I had no idea they were going to be this good.  I correctly predicted that the Cardinals were finally going to miss the playoffs.  They just needed too many pieces to fall into place.  The Pirates were disappointing this season and are now talking about entertaining trade offers for superstar Andrew McCutchen.  The Brewers are in rebuild mode after trading Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED).  The Reds are stuck somewhere between rebuilding and being stuck with big veteran contracts.  They might not have bottomed out yet.

NL West

My Preseason Predictions

1.  San Francisco Giants*

2.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

3.  Arizona Diamondbacks

4.  Colorado Rockies

5.  San Diego Padres

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

2.  San Francisco Giants*

3.  Colorado Rockies

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  San Diego Padres

The Dodgers impressed this season under rookie manager Dave Roberts.  Even with an extended injury to Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers dominated.  (I was so close on my prediction with the Dodgers, but no one wanted Yasiel Puig so he wasn't traded.)  I had the Giants winning the division, which they might have done if they didn't go through one of the most inexplicable second half collapses in recent memory.  They still snuck in to the postseason though so watch out.  The Rockies are showing they are very close to being a contender in this division.  (Again, SO close on my prediction, but they chose to keep CarGo.)  The Diamondbacks proved that their season was over before it started when AJ Pollock went down the weekend before Opening Day.  It also didn't help to have disappointing seasons from their two biggest offseason acquisitions: Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.  The Padres are trying to be relevant, but their front office is proving to be a little inadequate.

Season Awards

AL Manager of the Year

1.  Terry Francona

2.  John Farrell

3.  Buck Showalter

Showalter seems to do more with less every season.  John Farrell turned around the Red Sox with aging superstars, a resurgence of Hanley Ramirez at first base, and Pablo Sandoval spending the whole season on the DL.  However, nothing beats what Terry Francona has done in Cleveland.  He is one of the best coaches of the 21st century.

NL Manager of the Year

1.  Dusty Baker

2.  Dave Roberts

3.  Joe Maddon

Joe Maddon might end up winning this as he somehow exceeded the highest expectations on any team in recent memory.  Rookie manager Dave Roberts took a dumpster fire in the Dodgers and won the division despite having a piecemeal starting rotation all season.  However, Dusty Baker showed that old school baseball people still have a place in the new school of sabermetrics.  His work with the Nationals was incredible this season.

AL Cy Young

1.  Aaron Sanchez

2.  Rick Porcello

3.  JA Happ

The Blue Jays had several pitchers step up and have career years.  JA Happ returned to Toronto and won 20 games, a rare feat in today's game.  Boston's Rick Porcello finally seemed to put everything together as he led the league in wins with 22.  However, Aaron Sanchez was the most impressive pitcher in the AL this season.  Toronto's young ace was even held back due to an innings limit, but still posted some impressive numbers.

NL Cy Young

1.  Kyle Hendricks

2.  Madison Bumgarner

3.  Jon Lester

Jon Lester showed that he is still the elite starter he was in Boston.  He definitely had more in the tank than many gave him credit for.  Madison Bumgarner once again had an elite season, which makes many teams nervous as they enter the postseason.  However, for the second year in a row, the best pitcher in the National League is a Cubs pitchers nobody knew before the season.  Kyle Hendricks had an unbelievable year that overshadowed what Lester did as well as last year's Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta.

AL MVP

1.  David Ortiz

2.  Mike Trout

3.  Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano went from the most disappointing season of his career in 2015 to career highs in many stats in 2016.  He kept coming up big in the right spots, playing his best baseball in September while his team tried to make the postseason.  The best player on the planet, no matter how bad his team is, is still Mike Trout.  He just keeps getting better.  However, this season belonged to David Ortiz.  He played his best when it was his last.  Look for him to try and be the first DH to win MVP.

NL MVP

1.  Kris Bryant

2.  Daniel Murphy

3.  Nolan Arenado

One of these days, Nolan Arenado will be recognized for how great he really is.  He led the league in home runs and RBI's this season while playing Gold Glove caliber third base.  Daniel Murphy followed up his amazing postseason last year with an MVP caliber season this year for the Nationals.  However, when in doubt, the MVP is the best player on the best team.  The Cubs were by far the best team, and Kris Bryant was by far their best player.  Look for him to win the award in his sophomore season.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

Blue Jays def. Orioles

Giants def. Mets

The Blue Jays have waited all season to get back in this position after 2015's postseason.  The game is in Toronto, which is one of the craziest venues in all of baseball.  Toronto will win.  The NL Wild Card game will be a classic.  Noah Syndergaard, the only healthy ace for the Mets, is on the mound against the possibly the best postseason pitcher of all time in Madison Bumgarner.  Look for the Mets to be MadBummed.

Divisional Series

Blue Jays def. Rangers

Red Sox def. Indians

Giants def. Cubs

Nationals def. Dodgers

The first matchup is an epic rematch from last year.  There is no way the Blue Jays let the Rangers beat them again.  The Red Sox just have too much firepower for an injury-plagued Indians team.  The Cubs are the team everyone is looking to as the favorite, but the Giants have been there before many times and feature the rotation with the proven pedigree.  I said in my preseason predictions that the Cubs would dominate the regular season, but their pitching would run out of steam in the playoffs.  I'm holding to it.  The most intriguing matchup might be the Nats and the Dodgers.  Both teams finally played how everyone thought they could.  I give the edge to the team with the more experienced manager.

Championship Series

Blue Jays def. Red Sox

Giants def. Nationals

The storybook ending for David Ortiz would be to go out on top with a ring.  However, I really think this is the right time for the Blue Jays.  Their pitching is outstanding with Happ, Sanchez, and Marcus Stroman.  They might have the best lineup in the league.  It would be an upset, but I think it's time for the Blue Jays to get back to the World Series.  In the National League, it's Dusty Baker's Nationals going up against his former team in the Giants.  Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija can shut down any lineup.  They know how to peak in the playoffs, and I don't see anything different happening this time around.

World Series

Giants def. Blue Jays

Why not go with my original prediction!  I predicted Giants over Blue Jays back before the season started, and I am going to stick to my guns.  After all, it is an even numbered year.  Besides that, the Giants just know how to get it done in the playoffs.  It will be a fun series, but look for a similar result to what we are used to seeing.

World Series MVP

Madison Bumgarner

Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2016: Super Bowl 50

In honor of the 50th anniversary of the nation's greatest sporting spectacle not on pay-per-view, here are 50 amazing facts about Super Bowl 50 (not Super Bowl L, you dummy):

1. The 2015 Broncos scored 355 points and allowed 296 points.  Amazingly, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points and allowed 296 points.  The 2015 Broncos went 12-4 and made the Super Bowl; the 1973 Broncos went 7-5-2 and missed the playoffs.

2. Just in case you forgot, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points in 14 games, while it took the 2015 Broncos 16 games to reach that mark.

3. In 2015, 39-year-old Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for 2,249 yards, 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 1973, 35-year-old Broncos QB Charley Johnson threw for 2,465 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Manning finished 27^th in the NFL in pass yards; Johnson finished 3^rd.

4. Between Manning and Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, the worst in the league.

5. Since 1990, 85 NFL teams have thrown 23 interceptions in a single season. Of those 85, only 11 made the playoffs. 

6. The combined playoff records of those previous 10 teams before the 2015 Broncos: 2-10.  None of those teams ever made it past the divisional round.

7. The 2015 Broncos committed 31 turnovers.  In the past 30 years, only one team (the 1999 Rams) committed 31 turnovers and won the Super Bowl. 

8. The Broncos joined the 4-12 Cowboys and 5-11 49ers in being the only teams in the league which never scored more than 31 points in a game all season.

9. In the last 25 years, every Super Bowl team has scored over 31 points during the season at least once.

10. Week 1, the Ravens had the football at the Denver 16 yard line with 36 seconds left.  Joe Flacco threw a pass to the end zone that was intercepted by Darian Stewart.  Denver won 19-13.

11. Week 2, the Chiefs led Denver by 7 with 40 seconds left.  The Broncos scored a touchdown, kicked off, and scored off a Jamaal Charles fumble at the 20 yard line.  Denver won 31-24.

12. In the fourth quarter of Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater completed 11 of 13 passes for 127 yards and Adrian Peterson ran for 47 yards and a touchdown.  Down by 3, the Vikings had the ball at their own 47 with 35 seconds left when Bridgewater was stripped-sacked.  Denver won 23-20.

13.  Week 6, the Raiders gained 139 yards in the fourth quarter (the Broncos gained only 30), but lost when David Carr’s pass was intercepted and returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Chris Harris.  Denver won 16-10.

14. Week 7, the Browns trailed the Broncos by 3 and had a first down at the Denver 11 with 1:47 left.  They kicked a field goal to tie the game.  Miraculously, they got the ball back in Denver territory with 53 seconds remaining, until Josh McCown threw an interception.  In overtime, they had a first down at the Denver 39.  The plays that followed: A run for a 3 yard loss, an 8-yard sack, a 2-yard sack, and a 5-yard delay of game penalty.  Denver won in overtime 26-23.

15. Week 11, the Bears trailed 17-9 and scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left.  The 2-point conversion failed.  The Broncos won 17-15 in a game where they punted 7 times.

16. Week 12, the Patriots led 21-7 in the fourth quarter and were getting the ball back.  Chris Harper, a backup signed off the practice squad, fumbled the punt return.  After Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski were knocked out of the game, the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime.

17.  Week 16, the Bengals, led by A.J. McCarron, had a 14-0 lead 29 minutes into the game before they collapsed in the second half.  Although the Broncos had a fumble and missed field goal in the fourth quarter, they still won 20-17 in overtime.

18.  Week 17, the 4-11 Chargers forced 5 turnovers and led by 3 points with 10 minutes left. San Diego scored only scored 10 points off the 5 Denver turnovers.  The Broncos won 27-20.

19.  In the AFC Divisional Round, the Steelers played without their top two runningbacks and its top wide receiver. Pittsburgh led by 4 in the fourth quarter and was driving in Denver territory until fourth-string runningback Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbled. The Broncos won 23-16 in a game where they didn’t score a touchdown in the first 57 minutes of play.

              

20. In the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had the ball inside the Denver 20 yard line on three separate drives. Denver punted 9 times and was outgained by 92 yards and 8 first downs.  The Broncos won 20-18.

21. Just to review, that’s 11 victories that Denver easily could have (and in many cases, deserved to have) blown.  Including the playoffs, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less – the most close wins ever by a Super Bowl team.  By contrast, the 2015 Giants and Ravens went a combined 8-15 in such games.

22. Combined record of Denver’s opponents away from home in 2015: 56-72.  The Broncos played only two games away from home against opponents with winning records: Kansas City (the Jamaal Charles fumble) and Pittsburgh (a game they lost 34-27).

23. Excluding playoffs, total first downs surrendered to home opponents: 118.  Total first downs surrendered to road opponents: 171.

24. The combined QB rating of the Broncos quarterbacks (76.3) was worse than the combined QB rating of all the quarterbacks Denver faced (78.8).  The other teams which fared the same (along with their records): Minnesota (11-5), Indianapolis (8-8), Philadelphia (7-9), St. Louis (7-9), New York Giants (6-10), Chicago (6-10), San Francisco (5-11), Baltimore (5-11), Jacksonville (5-11), Dallas (4-12), Tennessee (3-13), Cleveland (3-13).

25. The last quarterback to win a Super Bowl after a season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns?  Len Dawson in 1969.  Dawson was also the last QB to win a Super Bowl after throwing under 10 TDs for the season (min. 3 starts).  Yes, those last two stats include Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer.

26. The 2015 Panthers won 15 regular season games, only the 7^th such NFL team ever to do so. No 15-1 team has ever lost a Super Bowl.

27. Week 2, Carolina led Houston 24-10 with 7:00 remaining the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 24-17.

28. Week 3, Carolina led New Orleans 27-16 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 27-22.

29. Week 4, Carolina led Tampa Bay 37-17 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-23.

30. Week 8, Carolina led Indianapolis 23-6 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 26-23 in overtime.

31. Week 9, Carolina led Green Bay 37-14 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-29.

32. Week 11, Carolina led Washington 44-14 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 44-16.

33. Week 12, Carolina led Dallas 33-6 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Carolina won 33-14.

34. Week 16, Carolina led New York 35-21 with 6:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 38-35.

35. In the NFC Divisional Round, Carolina led Seattle 31-14 with 7:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 31-24. 

36. Considering all the meaningless fourth quarter points given up, it’s reasonable to say that of the 308 points Carolina surrendered on the season, 75 of them (24.4%) came in garbage time (this excludes the playoffs).

37. OK, OK, you Peyton apologists: Some of those games (such as Indianapolis, Green Bay, and New York) were admittedly not truly garbage time points because the opponent actually came back and put Carolina’s win at least temporarily in some degree of doubt.  But even if you take out those three games, that’s still 29 garbage time points on the season. Denver’s supposedly “vastly superior” defense gave up 296 total points in 2015; Carolina’s gave up 308.  Do the math.

38. Carolina gets an unfair reputation for playing an easy schedule.  In reality, they defeated Seattle twice, beat Arizona by 34 points, scored 37 points against the Packers, beat playoff teams in Washington and Houston, and defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving with a healthy Romo starting (but not finishing).

39. One more tidbit about Carolina’s unfairly-criticized schedule: Through the first eight weeks, the Panthers only won one game by 14 or more points.  In their ten games since then, they’ve had six victories by 14+ points. 

40. Carolina was 6-0 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs.  Three of those wins came on the road.  Denver went 5-1 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs, but all five of those wins were at home.  The sole loss (against Pittsburgh) came on the road.

41. This season, 23 defensive players had 4 or more interceptions.  Four of them were Panthers (Kurt Coleman, Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman).  By contrast, Denver’s leader in interceptions was Aqib Talib, with 3.

42. Carolina rushed for 144 yards against Seattle in the NFC Divisional Round.  That was the most rush yards allowed by the Seahawks’ defense in 27 games – since November 16, 2014, when they gave up 190 to the Chiefs. Going into the game, Russell Wilson had never faced a deficit larger than 21 points.  Carolina jumped out to a 31-point lead 24 minutes into the game.

43. Carolina’s 49-15 win over Arizona in the NFC Championship Game was, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 8^th most dominant single-game performance by a team in NFL history.  DVOA ranks it as the 2^nd most dominant playoff performance ever, behind San Francisco’s 44-3 walloping of the Giants in 1994.

44. That was Phil Simms’ final game as an NFL QB.  Sorry, just had to throw that in there.

45. One more thing regarding DVOA: According to the metric, Denver is coming off wins over the 7^th and 6^th best teams, respectively.  Carolina is coming off victories over the 1^st and 5^th ranked teams, respectively.

46. As a team, Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 31 consecutive games, dating back to Week 5 of 2014. Denver did go 5-2 in games allowing over 100 yards rushing this season, but all five of those wins were the bullshit-style wins aforementioned in #10-18 on this list.

47. Since December 1, 2014, the Panthers have gone 22-2.  They have a +31 turnover margin over that span.

48. Since December 1, 2014, Cam Newton and Steph Curry have combined for 136 wins, 24 losses, and one championship (for now).

49. Since 2011 (Cam’s first season on the Panthers), Carolina leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns win 90, ranks 3^rd in total rushing yards, 4^th in yards per rush, and 7^th in total wins – not bad for a team that has had only two winning seasons in five years. 

50. Cam Newton has thrown for over 340 yards only three times: His first (422 yards), second (432 yards), and fourth starts (374 yards) as an NFL quarterback.

All right, so that last fact doesn’t really supply a meaningful case for which team will win Super Bowl 50, but it’s still an amazing and quirky stat.  Cam’s most prolific passing days occurred when he was at his most raw and inexperienced.  How many other successful quarterbacks can you say that about?  By contrast, Peyton Manning’s greatest passing day (479 yards in a 2014 win over Arizona) came on his 244^th regular-season start, in the middle of his 16^th season.  And it’s the same case across the board: Tom Brady’s best passing day (517 yards) occurred on his 146^th game, Ben Roethlisberger’s (522 yards) on his 151^st game, and Eli Manning’s (510 yards) on his 123^rd.

Of course, Cam has a much smaller sample size (78 regular season and 5 playoff games) and his transformation into a (somewhat) more conventional pocket passer has been well-documented.  Whatever he did in the offseason prior to 2015 to elevate his game, it has worked; going into the season, he had a win-loss record under .500, only one playoff win (over Ryan Lindlay) and a lifetime QB rating of 85.2.  In 2015, he was the presumptive league MVP and it wasn’t even close.  But the (correct) question on everyone’s minds is: How will he perform on the game’s biggest stage against the league’s best defense?

Obviously, after reading those 50 facts, you should have some coherent idea about where I stand on this game.  But it’s also true that I tend to choose games with my heart rather than my brain; three weeks ago, right after the Steelers and Seahawks pulled out unbelievable wins at the last second, I was ready to send everything to hell and proclaim another disastrous Denver-Seattle Super Bowl.  But one week later, the Patriots restored my confidence and I thought they were a lock to beat Denver.  I purposefully overlooked Brady’s shaky record in Denver and Manning’s ability to play well at home in sunny weather after two months of rest and sustenance courtesy of Rocco and Gino.

            I have a rooting interest in this game and it is the Carolina Panthers, a franchise I’ve been rooting for since the days of Steve Beuerlein and Tim Biakabutuka.  I even felt a little sad after my team beat them in the Super Bowl 12 years ago and unless they were playing the Patriots or Saints, I can’t really remember any games I ever rooted against them.  So let’s forget about my heart (or my brain) for a second, and play a game of “worst-case scenario.”  Let’s try to imagine the hypothetical circumstances enabling the Broncos to win Super Bowl 50:

            First, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will have to dominate the Panthers’ offensive line, particularly on the outside, where tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers may be vulnerable.  Of course they had little difficulty doing that against the Patriots, but if they are able to beat the tackles, the Broncos’ pass rush also must cover the middle of the field in order to prevent plays like this from happening.  Denver was successful two weeks ago because Wade Phillips never blitzed, which is something they’ll have to continue to do in the Super Bowl since the Panthers have a quarterback who isn’t exactly intimidated by blitzes.

The Denver secondary will also have to eliminate downfield passes, which of course they were also very good at this season.  It’s not unthinkable to believe that Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and T.J. Ward can capably cover the likes of Greg Olson, Philly Brown, and Ted Ginn (who may not even require too much coverage due to his fairly egregious drop rate).  Forcing the Panthers into third-and-longs and eliminating long completions or scrambles is a great gameplan for the Broncos, and again, it’s not inconceivable that they could do this.  Denver was middle-of-the-pack when it came to picking off passes, but remember that the Broncos 14-1 (including the playoffs) when forcing at least one takeaway.

            The problem comes when you try to draw up a best-case scenario for the Denver offense.  It’s a given that Manning must be turnover-free and perhaps get some assistance from calls (or no calls) on the field.  The Broncos will need Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to have serious YAC (yards after catch) numbers, which could be possible if Manning targets the receiver not covered by Josh Norman; Robert McClain, filling in for an injured Peanut Tillman, has looked shaky at times this postseason.  Denver hasn’t been great running the ball in the last two games, but C.J. Anderson has broken off a couple of 30-yard runs which put the Broncos in field goal range in both games.  You have to wonder about the health of Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, and if Carolina opts to send a blitz against Manning, perhaps the offensive line can give him or Anderson enough time to burn the linebackers. 

            The issue is that even if the Broncos play well on offense, they probably won’t score more than 20-24 points.  Defenses know that Manning cannot throw the ball more than 15 yards or escape from pressure, and they also know that the Broncos’ conservative gameplan calls more for clock management and field position than explosiveness.  The best case scenario for the Broncos is that they take an early lead, preferably 7-0 or 10-0.  This eliminates pressure to pick up yardage and can enable Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to run out the clock.  Denver’s special teams have quietly been strong too, so keeping the Panthers inside their own 20 yard line (like they did so often against the Patriots) will be of paramount importance.  If the Broncos make it a game of field position, eliminate Cam’s comfort in the pocket, and benefit from some timely magic from the Sheriff, they can win the game.  They’re certainly the healthier team, the more experienced team, and just beat two quarterbacks who combined for six titles.  And let’s not forget who’s announcing.

            Writing this, it admittedly makes me feel a little uneasy about the “surefire” prediction that Carolina will beat Denver.  Haven’t we seen the Broncos execute this exact gameplan all season?  After all, as the 2003-2004 Patriots famously demonstrated, winning games in the clutch is a more important skill than winning blowouts.  But after thinking about it, there are three main reasons I still like the Panthers:

            1. Denver hasn’t faced a quarterback like Cam Newton all season.  In fact, the best rushing quarterbacks they squared off against were Andrew Luck and Alex Smith – in games the Broncos both lost.  On top of this, it’s virtually impossible to gameplan against Cam Newton because (recalling stat #47) no one in the league has figured him out.  Even if you take out his top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin), give him an oft-injured, second-tier runningback (Jonathan Stewart) and a very average offensive line (with Michael Oher, for god’s sake), he still puts up a 17-1 league MVP season.  That kind of transcendent skill is impossible to prepare for and contain.

            2. I trust Carolina in a neutral site more than Denver.  No one talks about the air pressure in Denver, which certainly had an effect on players like Gronkowski two weeks ago.  It takes the wind out of opponents, and extends the kicking game, which favors a defensive-oriented team like the Broncos.  Denver is coming off four straight home games where their average margin of victory was 4.75 points.  Their most impressive road wins were at Detroit Week 3 and at San Diego Week 13.  The Panthers weren’t exactly great away from home either, but did win in Seattle, New Orleans, and New York (all of which, the last I saw, were more impressive than Detroit or San Diego).  The NFC was tougher than the AFC, and I believe that being away from home impairs the Broncos more so than the Panthers (fact #22 really sticks out here).

            3. Denver’s style of play fits right into Carolina’s hands.  Manning turns over the ball a lot; the Panthers are the league’s best team at takeaways.  Denver eliminates deep passes and pressures the QB; the Panthers are a run-first offense (not exactly the strengths of Pittsburgh and New England) and Cam Newton is the best in the league at avoiding pressure.  In close games, Denver controls the clock and slows the pace down; in 6 of the 8 quarters they’ve played this postseason, Carolina has done the same thing, except with double-digit leads.  Even if you want to concede that Denver’s defense is the best in football, you also have to say that Carolina’s offense is the best.  And if you want to say that Carolina’s defense is one of the best in football, you have to also admit that Denver’s offense . . . well, isn’t.

            Teams that finished the season ranked #1 in total defense are 9-2 in Super Bowls.  Defense wins championships more so than offenses, sure.  But for Denver to win the game, Carolina is going to have to make mistakes – mistakes like missing an extra point or having your fourth-string runningback fumble or turning the ball away with seconds remaining.  Could Carolina make these devastating mistakes?  I mean, if Russell Wilson can, anyone can.  But unlike the Patriots last year, the way this Denver team wins games necessitates that such mistakes are made.  So maybe Cam Newton fumbles at the goal-line in the fourth quarter?  Maybe Graham Gano misses a 25-yard field goal?  Maybe Josh Norman has a chance to pick off Peyton Manning’s game-winning pass, but it slips through his hands?  All of those scenarios are in the cards.  But if the game is played 100 times, how often do each of those events happen?  Once?  Twice?  That still leaves 96 or 97 other scenarios.  At first I thought picking Carolina was going with my heart, but it actually seems fairly clear that it’s really going with my head.

Prediction: Carolina 37, Denver 13.

Doppelganger: Do we really have to look that far?

Special Prop Bets:

Odds that Jim Nantz’s and Peyton Manning’s shared agent will make an appearance in the booth: 3/1

Odds that Rocco and Gino will hold a “friendly one-on-one” with Nantz and Simms before the game to avoid any mention of you-know-what-banned-substance: 4/1

Odds that such a meeting isn’t necessary because they weren’t going to bring it up anyway: No bet.

Odds that representatives from Papa Johns and Nationwide will personally hand the Lombardi trophy to Peyton Manning: 5/1

Odds that Simms, Roger Goodell and Eli Manning will actually be wearing pom-poms and giggling with each other about going steady with the leader of the pack: 7/2

Odds that Nantz and Simms introduce Manning by humming “Great-est-QB-of-all-time” to the annoying “Nationwide” theme: 6/5

Odds that I will copy-paste this column and the 2013 Super Bowl preview when Newton’s Panthers and Manning’s LA Rams meet in next year’s NFC Championship Game: Even. 

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Wild Card Round

            I do not claim to be a savant when it comes to predicting the NFL, but one thing is for sure: When it comes to Wild Card weekend, in the immortal words of the second-greatest Russell of all time, I am a golden god.  Last year at this time, I went 4-0 in my picks and way back in January 2014, I also went 4-0.  Of course, going 4-0 on picks for Wild Card weekend is probably the equivalent of going 4-0 against the AFC South like certain one seeds did this season, but undefeated is still undefeated.  The reason for my success?  Hard work, determination, and strong faith.  And copious illicit supplies of human growth hormone sent to me under my spouse’s name.  But since that is apparently a less serious offense than not deflating footballs, we can say in total confidence that the captain is back! 

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3½)

Saturday, January 9, 4:20pm EST, ABC/ESPN.

            Wild Card Weekend starts out with a bang – the uber-sexy matchup of Brian Hoyer versus Alex Smith!  These two teams share a surprising number of similarities: Both had atrocious starts to the season (the Texans started 2-5, the Chiefs 1-5) followed by substantially better finishes (the Texans 7-2, the Chiefs 10-0); both spent the majority of the season struggling to overcome season-ending injuries to star runningbacks; and both had quarterbacks with remarkably similar statistics (Hoyer threw for 2,606 yards, 19 TDs and 7 INTs, Smith threw for 3,496 yards, 20 TDs and 7 INTs).

            In addition, these two teams played each other in the first week of the season.  In that game, the Chiefs jumped out to a 27-6 lead before Houston benched Hoyer, put in Ryan Mallet, and scored 11 points in the game’s final five minutes to make the final score respectable (27-20).  Looking up that game, I couldn’t believe the final score was that close; it’s hard to overstate how thoroughly Kansas City completely dominated Houston for the majority of the contest.  After their first drive ended in a punt, the Chiefs scored on their next five drives, Hoyer and Mallett were sacked for a combined five times, and the Texans finished 3-of-14 on third down conversions.  As unlikely it seemed at the time that the two teams would rematch in the playoffs, it may have even been more unlikely that Alfred Blue and Charcandrick West would be the respective starters at runningback – let alone the most unlikely wrinkle at all, which is that the winner of this game may have a decent shot at beating Denver or an injury-decimated New England next week.

            For the Texans of course, it’s not really about the offensive firepower – it’s all about J.J. Watt, who willed himself to another compelling MVP campaign and made an otherwise pedestrian defensive units one of the league’s very best. Watt recorded multiple sacks in six games, and since November 1 (when they entered the week three games under .500), the Texans have given up 60 or more rushing yards to a single player only once (LeSean McCoy).  Also in that time span, they’ve held six of their nine opponents to ten points or below.  Sure, some of those games against the Titans and Jaguars weren’t overly impressive, but let’s not forget their out-of-nowhere Monday night win in Cincinnati against the previously unbeaten Bengals or their home victory against the Jets in which DeAndre Hopkins torched Revis Island for 118 yards and two touchdowns.  The Texans are 9-0 in games where they surrendered 20 points or fewer; in games of 21 or more points, they are 0-7.

            Hopkins and Watt both have transcendent abilities to take over games, but in terms of raw firepower, that is about it for Houston.  Alfred Blue is a mediocre runningback at best (3.8 YPC this season) and is one of the worst pass-catching backs I’ve ever seen.  Hoyer’s numbers, while solid, ignore the fact that he was technically only 5-4 in games he started (three of those wins came against the Titans and Jaguars).  A lot of the gaudy numbers between him and Hopkins came in garbage time, not only against the Chiefs in Week 1 but also the Falcons (Atlanta led 42-0, but the final score was 48-21) and Dolphins (Miami led 41-0, final score 44-26).  Ten of Houston’s games were against the AFC South and NFC South, and they had no impressive wins outside of the Bengals and Jets games.  Hoyer threw for 123 yards and an interception against Cincinnati, and did not play against New York.

            The Chiefs are similarly fraudulent in the sense that few of their wins were genuinely impressive; they beat the Broncos in Denver in the game where Peyton Manning threw approximately 8,467 interceptions and defeated a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team at Arrowhead Week 7.  It also happened to be the same game where Le’Veon Bell suffered his season-ending MCL injury.  Since Week 10, Kansas City’s victories have come against Oakland (twice), San Diego (twice), Buffalo, Baltimore and Cleveland.   This would appear to diminish the integrity of the Chiefs’ 10-game winning streak, but on the other hand, it’s still fairly remarkable that they got up for each game and didn’t lose a trap game.  Maybe it’s because they knew the Broncos were even more fraudulent and that the AFC West crown was always mathematically possible.

            Whatever the reason, the 10-game winning streak doesn’t really convince me of anything beyond the fact that Kansas City’s schedule happened to be frontloaded with its tough matchups (six of its first seven games came against playoff teams).  Does anyone else remember the 2009 Chargers or the 2008 Colts?  While the Chiefs will have a healthy Tamba Hali and Justin Houston in the lineup (and mostly likely Jeremy Maclin), something about this team still doesn’t feel quite right.  Is it the Andy Reid Stench?  Is it the fact that this team hasn’t won a playoff game since the (first) Clinton administration?  Is it the fact that the most memorable thing that happened to the Chiefs this year was this unspeakable play (VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED)? 

            Picking the Chiefs in this game is undoubtedly a risky proposition, yet I cannot get that Week One game out of my head.  Sure, it was a somewhat fluky first half, but if history should repeat itself and one of these teams goes up 14-0 or 17-0, the game might as well be over. The team I project with a better chance of that occurring for is Kansas City.   Remember that stat about Houston allowing more than 21 points?  Well, the Chiefs are 9-2 in games above 21 points, and six of their eight highest-scoring games came on the road.  Kansas City’s defense has also blossomed this season, picking off 22 passes in 2015 (compared with only six interceptions in 2014).  Hopkins and Watt may be the two most talented players on the field this weekend, but Alex Smith and Andy Reid have considerably more experience than Hoyer and O’Brian.  And Houston fans need to come to grips with the fact that their playoff birth had considerably more to do with Andrew Luck’s torn abdominal muscle than anything they did on the field.  Against all odds, one of these teams will actually win this game.

Prediction: Kansas City 23, Houston 13

Playoff Doppelganger: 1993 NFC Wild Card, New York Giants 17, Minnesota 10.  Well Jeem, we were just talking about how great Peyton Manning is, and then we talked a little more about how he’s the greatest quarterback of all time, then we talked about Phil Simms’ final win of his career – a less-than-stellar victory over a Vikings team quarterbacked by Jim McMahon and Sean Salisbury (that’s right, Sean Salisbury).  Like the Chiefs, the Giants were a boring, vanilla team with an excellent but boring and vanilla defense.  They ran the ball a lot, never turned the ball over, and were coached by the ultimate Andy Reid of the 1980s and 1990s, Dan Reeves.  Neither of these teams was really going anywhere (the next week the Giants lost to the 49ers 44-3), and although I doubt Alex Smith will retire after the season, I would much rather see him in the CBS announcing booth next to Jim Nantz, talking about what a better announcer he is (or anyone would be) than Phil Simms.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2½)

Saturday, January 9, 8:15pm EST, CBS.

            Hmm, haven’t we seen this scenario before?  The dangerous six-seeded Steelers traveling to the vulnerable division champion Bengals, with Cincinnati’s star quarterback injured and unable to play?  Of course, Andy Dalton probably won’t be rolled to the ground in a vicious hit by Kimo Von Oelhoffen, but that’s probably because Dalton likely won’t be ready to start this Saturday period. 

            That begs the natural question, what are we supposed to think of A.J. McCarron?  Besides the fact that his girlfriend is still hot, it’s difficult to say.  He did throw for 280 yards in three quarters against the Steelers on December 13 (in a home game where Dalton really was injured in the first quarter and Cincinnati lost) and has looked serviceable in the three games since (2-1 overall, 4 TDs, no picks, over 62 percent completions in each of the three games).  In previous years, the thought of Andy Dalton missing a playoff game may have sounded potentially advantageous to long-suffering Bengals fans, but the truth is, Dalton was enjoying the best season of his career before his Week 14 injury.  Gone was the hesitancy, the indecisiveness, and the ability to only win divisional home games at 1pm Eastern (here’s the proof).  There’s a chance he may be able to return next week, which should hopefully give the Bengals extra motivation to come out strong.

            As competent as Dalton and McCarron have played, the key for Cincinnati is still the ground game; they were 9-1 in games where they rushed for over 100 yards, and 11-1 in games where they scored 24 or more points.  If the Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard can have success against the Steelers’ 21^st ranked defense, Cincinnati can control the flow of the game (as well as the clock).  However, Pittsburgh was substantially better against the run (ranking 5^th in the NFL) than they were against the pass (30^th), meaning Cincinnati will have to make some considerable A.J. (McCarron)-to-A.J. (Green) connections downfield. 

            If this game feels familiar to pessimistic Bengals fans, it should also feel familiar to pessimistic Steelers fans: Last year, Pittsburgh hosted a Wild Card game to a Ravens team they had also handled only weeks earlier, but Le’Veon Bell was unable to play due to a hyperextended knee.  They lost by 13.  Now Bell’s backup, DeAngelo Williams, will not play this weekend against a division opponent.  That is cause for concern, and if you don’t believe me, look at their loss against the Ravens two weeks ago: Big Ben forced passes while under pressure and even in spite of Williams having a good day, the turnovers wreaked havoc on Pittsburgh.  Roethlisberger had 16 interceptions in 12 games this year, and the Steelers were 1-4 and all six of the games where Pittsburgh had a negative turnover differential resulted in losses.

            Other bad signs for Pittsburgh: They were 4-4 on the road this year, with the four victories coming against St. Louis (by 6), San Diego (by 4), Cincinnati (without Dalton), and last week at Cleveland.  Also, they gave up 27 points in one half to Brock Osweiler, a 95 QB rating to Ryan Mallett, four touchdown passes to Derek Carr, and 385 total yards or more surrendered in eight of its games. Of course, Antonio Brown usually made up for the Steelers’ defensive woes, but in two games against the Bengals this year, he had “only” 13 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown.  By comparison, his single game average this season was 8.5 catches for 114 yards and just under a touchdown (A.J. Green’s two games against the Steelers?  A combined 17 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns).

            Pittsburgh feels like the obvious pick in this game due to the Bengals’ postseason woes, the Steelers’ postseason successes, and Dalton’s injury.  But in picking Pittsburgh, you’re also going with a team that was mediocre on the road, has a highly suspect running game at the moment, and quietly hasn’t won a road playoff game since . . . you guessed it, their improbable Super Bowl run in 2005.  The Bengals’ defense, meanwhile, gave up the second-fewest points, surrendered the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and picked off the third-most passes. Remember that although Dalton is injured, the rest of the team is at the healthiest it has been all season.  Remember that in its final ten games, Pittsburgh has committed 25 turnovers, while Cincinnati is 7-1 in games where they forced more than one turnover.  It would be naïve to completely overlook the Bengals’ woeful playoff record in the Marvin Lewis era (0-6), but I also think the public is being oversold on the Steelers, whose players are more likely to start on a fantasy football championship team than any real one.  So why not.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2000 AFC Wild Card, Miami 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT).  Another one of those Peyton Manning playoff gems.  Like the Steelers, the Colts had all the offensive firepower and most of the public betting line on their side.  Like the Bengals, the Dolphins had the better defense, the better run game, were playing at home, and were fairly comfortable in the underdog role. At the time, the two teams played in the same division and had split the regular season series with the road team victorious in each game.  This game is popularly remembered as the “Lamar Miller game” because of his unreal stat line (40 carries, 209 yards, 2 TDs); if Hill and Bernard can combine for those numbers, the Bengals should overcome the limitations of Jay Fiedler A.J. McCarron and emerge on top.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+6)

Sunday, January 10, 1:05pm EST, NBC.

            The most intriguing matchup of the weekend.  Like Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, the game feels deceptively easy to predict: The Seahawks, who haven’t lost a playoff game to an NFC team in three years, get a rematch with the same team they annihilated by 31 points on the road only five weeks ago.  Seattle gets back its star runningback (who missed the game due to injury).  Minnesota finished in the bottom five of total offense and is led by Teddy Bridgewater, a quarterback making his playoff debut.  He also threw only 14 touchdowns all season – fewer than Tyrod Taylor, Andrew Luck, and Marcus Mariota (none of whom played all 16 games like Bridgewater).

            Let’s continue to wax poetic about Seattle for a moment. Though they finished with 10 wins on the season, they finished ranked first in advanced metric’s DVOA rankings.  For the fourth straight year.  They finished first in scoring defense (also for the fourth consecutive year) and boasted the first quarterback in history with 4,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards, and 30 touchdowns thrown (and he’s a Good Person too!).  In fact, the offense (which finished fourth in the league) seemed to get better after it lost what most people thought to be its two most explosive players, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham.  Since Week 12 (Graham’s last appearance), Seattle’s offense has averaged 32.5 points per game while allowing just over 14 points.

            Let’s also look at criticisms of Seattle which I have had in the past: Namely, their poor play on the road and the subpar quality of their opponents.  After losing its first three road games, Seattle hasn’t lost away from the friendly confines of Qwest Field since October 11 – a hot streak that will prove pivotal if they hope for success in the playoffs as a 6 seed.  They did beat a lot of bad teams down the stretch (San Francisco, Baltimore, Cleveland), but also played Arizona, Carolina, Cincinnati and Green Bay.  It’s not realistic (as it was in 2013 and 2014) to claim Seattle had an easy schedule in 2015; in fact, according to standard SRS rankings, the only playoff team with a tougher regular season schedule was Green Bay.  They don’t have a great deal of injuries (although it remains to see how effective Lynch will be after his sports hernia surgery), and are eager to restore their postseason dignity after the worst hiccup in the history of football.

             The Seahawks have played the Panthers, Cardinals (twice), Packers and Vikings already, and played competitively against each of them. In fact, the Rams game two weeks ago marked the first game in Russell Wilson’s career where the Seahawks didn’t enjoy the lead at some point of the game (we’ll get back to the Rams game in a second).  T.J. Lockett patched up the holes in the special teams game; Doug Baldwin led the NFL in receiving touchdowns; Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Bobby Wagner are probably the three best defensive players in the league not named Watt.  Simply put, this team has no ostensible shortcomings.

            And yet, they somehow lost six games in 2015, which costs them any hope of enjoying the league’s most feared homefield advantage in the postseason.  Early on, Seattle had a bad case of giving up fourth quarter leads, which was probably the most uncharacteristic problem imaginable for this defense.  They did give up big passing days to Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer, and finished in the middle of the pack in takeaways.  They got lucky a few times (remember that they are the Seahawks), but no one doubts that they come into the playoffs as the league’s hottest and most feared team.  It’s possible that the Packers intentionally lost to the Vikings on Week 17, costing them the division crown and a home playoff game, just to avoid playing Seattle.

            So the best case scenario for the Vikings has little to do with the talent on the field – they need strange, extraordinary things to happen off it.  In this category, Minnesota is getting some help from the football gods: The game is scheduled to be played in sub-zero temperatures, which certainly could slow down the Wilson-to-Baldwin connection through the air.  It is also being played at 10am Pacific time Sunday; Seahawks fans will remember the last two postseason games played in that time slot were losses (to Atlanta in 2013, Chicago in 2011).  Of course, the December 6 game between the two teams was played at 10am Pacific time, but the temperature that day was a balmy 37 degrees.

            Another good sign for Minnesota: They finished the season with the league’s best record against the spread: 13-3 (13-2 if you don’t count their Week One clusterf*** against the 49ers).  And let’s be honest: the spread in this game is ridiculous.  Remember what happened after Pittsburgh was favored over Tim Tebow by 7.5 and the Saints were 10 point favorites over Beast Mode?  The Vikings certainly don’t mind being underdogs.  Finally, there’s one more important thing that should frighten Seahawks fans: The kryptonite to Seattle has been the St. Louis Rams, who swept them this season and consistently play them tough.  By my estimation, the Vikings are essentially a better version of the Rams: Outstanding defensive line, run-first ball control offense, the league’s best special teams.  Like the Rams, the offense isn’t talented enough to overcome a 14-0 or maybe even a 10-0 deficit.  That is not their game.  The game plan for the Vikings is to build an early lead, force Seattle into three-and-outs (not impossible), and have Adrian Peterson run the clock out so they can hit the warm showers early.

            All of this is good in theory, and I really want to pick the Vikings here. But I also wanted to pick Minnesota in the December 6 matchup, and we all know how that turned out (it is worth noting that Harrison Smith and Anthony Barr missed most of the game).  Minnesota did everything they were supposed to this year, and they deserve praise for a great season.  But unfortunately in this instance, they drew the short straw.  The six-point line is too high (did everyone magically forget about this?) and the game could be close, particularly if the Seahawks cannot match the Vikings’ ground attack, but there is a reason Seattle has been the league’s best regular season team four consecutive years and running.

Prediction: Seattle 24, Minnesota 19

Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 NFC Wild Card, Green Bay 21, Philadelphia 16.  The Packers were the 6 seed and Philadelphia hadn’t been division champs for a while (it was also Michael Vick’s first playoff game in six seasons and his first-ever as an Eagle).  But no one could stop Aaron Rodgers, just as no team could boast the Packers’ depth on both the offense and defensive sides of the ball (in spite of question marks in the running game).  The Packers took a 14-0 lead in the second quarter and survived a late Eagles threat to commence a Super Bowl run that many could see coming in spite of a deceptive 10-6 record.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (Pick ‘em)

Sunday, January 10, 4:40pm EST, Fox.

            The easiest game of the week to predict, although it would not have seemed that way in mid-October, when the Packers looked dominant 6-0 and the Redskins at 2-4 looked like . . . well, the Redskins.  But since then, the Packers have gone 4-6, while the Redskins have exceeded all expectations, finishing the final ten games 7-3.  I anticipate those divergent paths to remain the same this weekend.

            The line for this game is a pick ‘em for one reason and one reason alone: Aaron Rodgers.  No one wants to bet against him in the playoffs.  But in spite of the NFL’s golden boy and his ebullient glow, the Packers have serious problems.  They are incapable of mounting a consistent ground game, with Eddie Lacy oscillating somewhere between Christian Okoye and the Pillsbury Doughboy.  How is this for a stat line: This season, Lacy had more games with under 10 yards rushing (4) than games with over 100 yards (3).  Sure, he was battling injuries but inconsistency seemed to bite everyone on offense: James Jones (three 100 yard games, five games with one or less receptions), Davante Adams (eight games under 40 yards), Richard Rodgers (seven games under 20 yards).  What happened to the prolific Packers offense of three or four years ago? 

            Here’s the most amazing stat about the 2015 Packers: They went 0-3 in divisional home games.  Let me repeat that: 0-3 in divisional games at home.  That’s right, the Bears, Vikings and Lions were all victorious at Lambeau this season.  Of course, they won’t be playing any home games against the NFC North this postseason, but that information is instructive in showing that the Packers were incapable of beating teams they should have.  On the flip side, Green Bay’s most impressive win came against the Seahawks all the way back in Week 2; after that, the only playoff teams the Pack defeated were the Chiefs and the Vikings. 

            So we get that Green Bay is flawed, but . . . the Redskins?  Really?  They don’t have many impressive wins either (their biggest win was probably at Philadelphia two weeks ago) and they benefitted from playing in the NFC’s weakest division.  But there is one thing they did better than almost any other team: Washington was outstanding at home, with Kirk Cousins setting an NFL record for pass completion percentage in home games (74.7 percent).  As a team, the Redskins ran the ball pretty well too, averaging just under 129 yards per game at the friendly confines for FedEx Field.

            Cousins had an outstanding season, and his stats were remarkably similar to Rodgers (101.6 QB rating to Rodgers’ 92.7).  Between DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed, Washington has one of the best corps of unheralded receivers in the league.  The running game isn’t much, but Alfred Morris is basically a LeGarrette Blount-type who can move the ball forward on third-and-ones, and rookie Matt Jones (questionable this weekend) frequently provided a spark. 

            They’re not much on paper, but with the way that Cousins is playing right now, Washington is a threat to score from anywhere on the field.  They are 8-0 in games where they score 23 or more points (which the Packers defense has given up in five of its eight road games), and the Skins are 8-1 when turning over the ball one time or less.  Mike McCarthy isn’t exactly a safe bet in playoff games, and since their victory in Super Bowl 45, the Pack are 2-4 in the postseason.  Green Bay also hasn’t won in Washington since 2004.  At some point, these things start adding up and you find yourself going with whoever has the hot hand, which in this case is the Redskins.  Rodgers hasn’t usually been counted out, and on the few occasions he has, his response was as relieving as it was relaxing to fans.  But the Redskins feel very 2008 Cardinals-ish – a doormat franchise with an explosive offense and ragtag defense – and the Packers haven’t impressed anyone since Week Two.  Who wouldn’t like that?

Prediction: Washington 30, Green Bay 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2000 NFC Wild Card, New Orleans 31, St. Louis 28.  No one thought the Greatest Show on Turf would have any difficulties with the upstart Saints, but everyone forgot that they had a lot of injuries, turned the ball over a lot, and had a defense that couldn’t close out games.  Unlike the 2015 Redskins, the 2000 Saints were actually lousy at home (3-5) but Aaron Brooks and a trio of solid young receivers just enough to earn the franchise’s first-ever playoff win.  It would not be their last.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Surprised I went the entire article without mentioning my the league's best quarterback who didn't need HGH?  Let me know below.