Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Division Round

            If the Seahawks win on a missed chip-shot field goal . . .

            And if the Steelers win because of horrible officiating . . .

            And if Aaron Rodgers and Andy Reid make you feel stupid for betting against them . . .

            And if the Bengals, Vikings, Redskins, and Texans all lost in horrible fashion . . .

            That can only mean one thing: It’s the NFL playoffs!  Of the remaining eight quarterbacks, one has never won a playoff game, two have never made it to a Super Bowl, and the other five share a combined nine championships.  I wonder if that information will play any significant role in which teams I predict to win this week.  It sure as hell didn’t last week, when I took A.J. McCarron and Kirk Cousins, and they each broke my heart.  But hey, when you play with matches, you tend to get burned – kind of like how if you send your linebackers coach on to the field to incite the opposing team in order to draw a late-game penalty, you get condemned by league officials.  Or if you purchased illegal HGH supplements and had them shipped to your house under your wife’s name, you get publicly criticized.  Or if you are found not guilty of deflating footballs, you still get unfairly ostracized by the media.  Yep, it’s the NFL playoffs and I am in a bitter mood!

Kansas City at New England (-5½)

Saturday, January 16, 4:35pm EST, CBS.

            In the first half of the 2015 season, the Patriots were the 2014 version of themselves (unstoppable on offense, annihilating teams every week, playing angry, disciplined, mistake-free football).  During the second half, however, the Patriots were the 2013 version of themselves (ridden with injuries at every conceivable position, eager to run the clock to get out of games without suffering further injuries, no consistent running game to speak of).  So heading into this week, it is more than understandable to ask the question: Which team are they?  The 2013 team, which limped into the playoffs without its biggest weapons and subsequently lost in Denver, or the 2014 Super Bowl championship team?

            For the moment, let’s stick to what we know.  The Patriots have historically dominated the divisional round in the Brady/Belichick era, winning eight out of a possible nine home games.  The Chiefs are coming off their first playoff victory in two decades over a team that should have never made the playoffs to begin with.  The Patriots are expected to start several of their biggest players who have been sidelined due to injury (including Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Devin McCourty).  The Chiefs have some injury question marks, none bigger than Jeremy Maclin and Justin Houston.

            But then there are the things that make me nervous as a biased Patriots fan.  One is that Kansas City has won 11 straight games; we had a similar streak in 2003, and when you win that many games, you panic less, come together as a team more, and eliminate the kind of intimation Bill Belichick teams typically thrive upon.  Conversely, the Pats finished the season 2-4.  Of course, we were banged up and perhaps mucking around to avoid getting the one seed for some unknown reason (kind of like how we inexplicably kicked off to the Jets to start OT a few weeks ago).  No one ever said being a Patriots fan wasn’t interesting.

            Another scary element looming in the minds of Pats fans is the last time we played the Chiefs – you know, when Trent Dilfer called Tom Brady old and said we would have to start playing Jimmy G.  But should we put a lot of stock in that game?  At the same time, I wrote last week that many of the Chiefs’ wins during their current streak are unimpressive (last week was a beautiful illustration of that), and as I said above, at least a few of the Pats’ late-season losses were due to trying to avoid the Steelers injuries.

            New England loses when three things happen: When Tom Brady is pressured and sacked; when they cannot run the ball (2-3 in games of 70 or fewer yards); and when they score under 27 points (1-3 in such games this season).  Essentially, we can chalk those three factors to one simple strategy: The Chiefs’ defensive line has to play outstanding.  When Tom Brady is given time in the pocket, as the Ravens and Seahawks crucially permitted him last season, the Patriots are virtually impossible to beat, and that’s not even considering when Edelman and Gronkowski playing at their highest levels.  The Chiefs sacked Brian Hoyer three times last week, and forced four interceptions; but I think it’s safe to say that Hoyer is not Tom Brady.

            It is worth noting, however, that Brady has been sacked 38 times this season – the only time he had more sacks was in 2013.  Then there’s his high ankle sprain suffered in the season finale against Miami.  The Patriots notoriously underplay the extent of their injuries, but Brady was noticeably limping in that game.  The offensive line has been in shambles since November, and with no LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis, the Pats will have to rely on the legs of (gulp) Steven Jackson and Brandon Boldin.  Sure, we didn’t exactly light the running game on fire last year against the Ravens or Seahawks, but at least we could fake the run or call for play-action.  Not this week (or this postseason, for that matter.)

            At this point, you may be thinking, “OK, so the Chiefs defense, which specializes in stuffing the ground game and pressuring the QB, may have the advantage.  But they still cannot score points.”  Well, that deserves a more careful look.  The four quarterbacks who managed to beat New England this year were Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill (suddenly the name “Alex Smith” doesn’t seem all that bad).  Two of those losses came when the Pats blew two-touchdown leads; in the other two we gave up 300 yards through the air, 5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.  Want more?  This season, the Pats defense only had five games with multiple takeaways.  Compare that with nine such games each in 2014 and 2013.  Including last week, the Chiefs have nine games where the offense scored 26+ points, and seven of those games were on the road. The Pats were 3-3 in games giving up 26+ points.

            The Chiefs aren’t exactly an electric offense, but Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and even Alex Smith are all better running options than the Pats’ best runningback.  They doubled the Patriots turnover ratio (+14 compared to +7) and played a much tougher schedule (Kansas City only lost one AFC road game all season).  There’s no combination quite like Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but Andy Reid and Alex Smith each have considerable playoff experience too. The Patriots come into the game with more off-field drama and higher expectations; having thrilled an already ecstatic Kansas City fan base, the Chiefs should come into the game feeling like they are playing with house money.

            It may be shocking to say, but here goes nothing: I think I have to pick against my beloved team.  I can’t help but notice the eerie parallels between this Chiefs teams and the other teams we’ve blown playoff games to (specifically, the Mark Sanchez-led Jets and the Ravens): An offense prioritizing ball control, a brutal defensive line, prior success against the Patriots, and a fearless coaching staff.  The 11-game winning streak may give the Chiefs too much confidence, but watching them last week (in an admittedly one-sided game), there wasn’t any discernable sense of cockiness or hubris.  The best-case scenario for the Patriots is, like they’ve done so many times before, Tom Brady shuts up all the doubters, they build a quick 14-0 lead, and the environment of Gillette Stadium in January intimidates the opponent into submission.  The problem is, sadly, I believe the Patriots really tried to win many of those games they ultimately lost down the stretch, while the Chiefs have played the last three months unafraid of anyone or anything. 

Prediction: Kansas City 24, New England 17

Playoff doppelganger: 2010 AFC Divisional Round, NY Jets 28, New England 21.  Because of course.  This game took me many years to recover from, but when I finally overcame it, the feeling was so sweet.  Serenity now, serenity now.

           

Green Bay at Arizona (-7)

Saturday, January 16, 8:15pm EST, NBC.

            The writing was on the wall going into last Sunday, when everyone was picking Washington over Green Bay.  It’s never good when you are the trendy, popular pick; just ask Mark Helfrich.  Meanwhile, everyone did not relax and forgot that they were picking Kirk Cousins over the Super Bowl champion, two-time league MVP, and Mr. Olivia Munn.

            It’s fair to say that the Packers resemble the Patriots in how erratic and bipolar they’ve looked down the stretch, due in large part to injuries.  Since October, they’ve won just four games – against Minnesota, Dallas, Oakland, and the Hail Mary in Detroit – and when you add in last week, the Packers’ resume doesn’t look that outstanding.  I mean, this is the same team that lost to Denver, Carolina, and Arizona by a combined score of 104 to 47.  But like the Patriots, maybe Green Bay’s M.O. has been to rest everyone and don’t worry about giving maximal effort until the postseason.  Hell, that always seems to work for Eli Manning.

            It’s also possible that the Redskins were a fraudulent team that won nine games in a horrific division, but any time a team can win by 17 points on the road – especially after overcoming an early deficit of 11 points – the result is impressive and merits consideration.  Obviously, the Cardinals are a much more difficult challenge for Green Bay, particularly because they beat the Packers by 30 on December 27.  But if you accept the logic that Green Bay wasn’t playing at full strength or effort for much of the season, you may have to throw out much of what that game appeared to demonstrate.

            And what did that game show?  Green Bay’s offensive line was awful, giving up an unbelievable eight sacks, while Corey Redding and Jerraud Powers each had fumble returns for touchdowns.  Arizona’s secondary was even more outstanding, limiting Rodgers to 151 yards and only one touchdown.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense did what it has done all year – create big passing plays down the field, enable a consistent and diverse running game (David Johnson, Andre Ellington, and Kerwynn Williams each had at least seven carries for 39 yards), and limit turnovers. 

            At 36 years old, Carson Palmer is coming off the best statistical season of his career, throwing for over 4,600 yards, 35 touchdowns, and most importantly, not getting injured.  That critical caveat is what worries me most about Palmer.  In his career, he has missed 32 games due to injury.  Injuries have also sidelined Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Johnson, both of which are huge blows to this team.  In spite of this, Arizona looked great down the stretch – that is, until two weeks ago when the Seahawks demolished the Cardinals at home (in a game in which every probability seemed to be pointing toward Palmer taking a Michael Bennett hit and being sidelined for the playoffs; instead, that hit was made by N’Damukong Suh on Tom Brady). Like the Patriots and the Packers, that late-season loss was alarming; but was it a meaningless game in which starters were rested, or does Arizona really have some gaping holes to fix?

            In many respects, the Cardinals may have had the most balanced and complete team in the league in 2015, but besides the injury worries, one thing also strikes me about them: Outside of that Packers victory, they don’t have too many impressive wins on their resume.  True, they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and the next week took care of business at home against the Bengals – but look at the rest of the teams they beat: New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco (twice), Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota and Philadelphia. No Carolina, no Denver or New England, and their non-Seahawk losses were to the Steelers and Rams.  You can’t control what schedule you get, but Arizona’s is a little suspect.

            Two other observations about the Cardinals’ losses this year: In each of the three games, they gave up over 120 yards on the ground and could not force a turnover (conversely, they had three giveaways in each game).  Last week, the Packers had 141 yards rushing and only turned the ball over once.  Green Bay had eight games where they didn’t turn the ball over at all, while Arizona had eight games with multiple giveaways.

            If there was any lesson learned last weekend, it was: Don’t discount the experienced playoff QB.  Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger beat Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, and A.J. McCarron.  I think Palmer is in a class just above those last four guys, but he’s still 0 for 1 in playoff games (I don’t count the Steelers debacle in 2006), while Rodgers just won his fourth road playoff game.  Including last week, five of the six games where the Packers scored 29 or more points came on the road.  Outside of Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins, the Packers’ defense is the healthiest it has been all season, which is probably the same thing you can say about the Green Bay running game.  David Johnson has been great for the Cardinals, but he is still a rookie, while players like John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Deone Bucannon, and Markus Golden are still in their first couple years as pros.  Meanwhile, everyone is picking against Green Bay once again, which is exactly the way Aaron Rodgers likes it.  It’s a tough call but in this circumstance, I say experience means something.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Arizona 27

Playoff doppelganger: 2008 NFC Divisional Round, Arizona 33, Carolina 13. Cardinals fans will certainly remember this one: Stumbling into the playoffs, with no one giving them any chance, with no running game or consistency to speak of, the wily veteran Kurt Warner defied all the odds and showed why experience and a strong arm are two of the most important commodities to have in a postseason run.  Like the 2015 Cardinals, the 2008 Panthers were coming off the franchise’s best season and were the critical darlings of many prognosticators.  But then Jake Delhomme became Jake Delhomme and turned the ball over 13450924332 times.  I bet he still wishes he could have gotten bailed out in the first quarter by Kimo von Oelhoffen.

           

Seattle at Carolina (-3)

Sunday, January 17, 1:05pm EST, Fox.

            It is very possible that these are the two best teams in the NFL at the moment.  One is the two-time defending conference champion, the other became the sixth team in NFL history to finish 15-1 and has a QB who is the shoo-in for league MVP.  After four consecutive Seahawks victories over the Panthers (by an average of just under 7 points) Carolina finally took down Seattle this season in Week 6, with Cam Newton connecting on the game-winning touchdown to Greg Olsen.  That felt like a seminal and tide-changing moment in Carolina Panthers franchise history – as well as the most frustrating and bitter moment in the Seahawks season.

            I believe the Panthers were the best team in football in 2015.  You can find holes here and there; they did it without Kelvin Benjamin, relied perhaps too heavily on the likes of Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess, and had the luxury of playing ten games against the NFC South and AFC South.  They haven’t played a team with a winning record since November 8, and had several games this year (including vs. Indianapolis, Green Bay, New Orleans, and the Giants) where they blew double-digit leads, but hung on to win.  Sometimes it wasn’t pretty.  Often times it wasn’t overly impressive on the field.  But finishing 15-1, leading the league in scoring offense, rushing offense, and takeaways, and having the league’s best player score 45 touchdowns is undeniably impressive.

            The Seahawks weren’t exactly pretty either last week, relying on a bad offensive play, a bad defensive play, and a reprehensible special teams play by their opponent to win by a single point.  Has there ever been a luckier team in NFL history than the Seahawks?  I don’t deny that they’re immensely talented on both sides of the ball, but at this point, how can anyone be surprised anymore when these types of antics occur (Bill Barnwell had a perfect tweet about this).  As a Seahawks hater, I knew that a 27-yard chip shot was too good to be true.  I knew that Peterson would fumble at a critical time (ask Todd if you don’t believe me), just like I knew they would recover that stupid onside kick last year, just like I knew the refs would uphold the Fail Mary. I’m not Nostradamus.  I’m a Seahawks hater.

            In many respects, Carolina is the most desirable opponent for the Seahawks.  Without that Newton-to-Olsen touchdown, Seattle would be 5-0 against Carolina in the Russell Wilson era (never mind that each game was close, that’s just always how Seattle plays).  Last week was the eighth time the Seahawks have faced off against a playoff team this season.  This week will be the sixth time they’ve faced a playoff team on the road.  They get back a healthy Marshawn Lynch, a healthy Luke Willson, and the weather will not be below zero.  In his five games against the Seahawks, Cam Newton has thrown four touchdowns, five interceptions, has never rushed for over 42 yards, and has only completed 56 percent of his passes.  Against the Panthers, Russell Wilson has thrown for seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and has completed over 68 percent of his passes.

            Look, it’s not rocket science here.  Seattle had the tougher schedule; they have the better quarterback, the better coach, more playoff experience, resentment stemming the game earlier this season, and they have their best offensive player in the lineup once again.  Carolina played weak teams all year, have only one playoff win in Cam’s career (vs. Ryan Lindley), will be missing one of its premier defenders (Charles Tillman), questionable receivers, and they give up leads.  Cam’s stats look great, but he also had a completion rate under 60 percent and only had four games where he averaged more than five yards per rush attempt.  Carolina comes in as the favorite because they won 15 games, but shared only two common opponents with Seattle: Dallas and Green Bay.  The Panthers haven’t advanced past the divisional round since 2005.

            If you take the Panthers, you are choosing to believe that Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and Jerricho Cotchery can beat Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas.  You’re choosing to believe that the team with the easiest schedule in the league – a team that struggled in December games against the Saints, Giants, and Falcons – can beat a team that has surrendered three offensive touchdowns in its last six games.  You’re choosing to take the #1 offense over the #1 defense in a game where the latter hasn’t lost in the playoffs to an NFC opponent in three years.  You’re choosing to take the quarterback that has been historically stifled over the quarterback that does this.  I think it’s a no-brainer.  Minnesota had its chance last week.  That’s the closest it is going to get.

           

Prediction: Seattle 37, Carolina 17

Playoff doppelganger: 2010 NFC Divisional Round, Green Bay 48, Atlanta 21.  The Falcons came into the game as the trendy #1 seed in the NFC, except they had played a fraudulent schedule with the exception of a three-point regular season win over the Packers.  That was enough to rile Aaron Rodgers up, and he torched the Falcons much-vaunted defense for 366 yards and four total touchdowns.  In the cases of both the Packers and the Seahawks, not having a bye may actually help preserve momentum and focus.

Pittsburgh at Denver (-7)
Sunday, January 17, 4:40pm EST, CBS.

            Ten years ago, Ben Roethlisberger and the six-seeded Steelers marched confidently on the road in the divisional round and beat top-seeded Peyton Manning (due in large part to the unheralded defensive playmaking of Big Ben). Four years ago, the Steelers marched confidently into Denver in the divisional round and were 7½-point favorites over Tim Tebow, until this happened.  Of course, Manning didn’t play for the Broncos in 2006, nor was he on the field in 2011, but hopefully you get the idea: This matchup, in whatever form it has taken, has given us some of the more remarkable and improbable results the past decade.

            There are a lot of unknowns in this matchup, but there are a few things we know for sure.  One is that the 2015 Broncos were a very fortunate team.  They were all but done in Kansas City until Jeremy Hill Jamaal Charles was given the ball late; they trailed the Patriots by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter until the refs suddenly remembered who they were rooting for and commenced calling excessive penalties on Rob Gronkowski; they survived overtime contests against the Browns and Bengals, and somehow beat San Diego in spite of five giveaways.  Their quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, a 76.3 QB rating, and 12 wins.  They had no major injuries to speak of all season (outside of Manning’s, which may have given him two months of significant rest) and four of their five wins over playoff teams came at home (the only win was the infamous Chiefs game at Arrowhead).

            We also know that after last week, the Steelers are considerably banged up, with likely game-time decisions for DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown, as well as a beat-up Roethlisberger, but still . . . Denver is a seven-point favorite?  Am I not understanding something here?  The Broncos beat only four teams all season by a touchdown or more, while four of the Steelers’ five losses with Roethlisberger under center were by seven points or fewer.  Four weeks ago, on December 20, the Broncos not only lost to the Steelers, but gave up the most points in any game they played all season (34).  And oh yeah, Denver’s starting quarterback has lost six times in the divisional round, and has gone one-and-done in the playoffs a record nine times.

            It’s certainly a considerable advantage for the Broncos if Williams and Brown cannot play.  Denver’s unequivocal strength is its top-rated defense, which went 11-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer.  They only gave up one 300-yard passer all season (you guessed it) and in the December 20 game, Williams was a virtual non-factor, rushing 14 times for only 26 yards (Emmanuel Sanders nearly outgained him on the ground on one carry).  The Broncos scored 27 points in the game’s first 28 minutes, before Osweiler and company were shut out in the second half.  I watched that game and neither team looked perfect, with each throwing pivotal interceptions in the game’s final five minutes.  I will say that I cannot imagine Denver players being too thrilled with the way they finished that game.

            The Sheriff Manning will of course be an important factor, but I feel like the Broncos are the kind of team that can survive a 120-yard, 2-interception performance (oddly enough, I feel that way about the Steelers too).  And the question must be asked: If Manning is in the midst of another divisional round dud, why wouldn’t Gary Kubiak pull the trigger and put Osweiler in?  Denver went 8-1 in games where they rushed for 100+ yards (again, you can guess where their one loss came).  Pittsburgh’s defense has played quietly well against the run all season, and if you take away the one long gain surrendered to Jeremy Hill, the Bengals only ran 23 times for 53 yards last week.  But if the Steelers’ run defense has been quiet, the Broncos’ run defense has been booming, allowing only one 100-yard rusher all season (this time it might not be who you guessed).

            If you’re picking the Steelers in this game, you believe that Manning’s two months of rest will have little impact on his well-documented playoff demons.  You believe that Pittsburgh can score 24 points against anyone, at any location, and you believe that Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jordan Todman, and Martavis Bryant can make up for the losses to Williams and Brown (who may still play anyway).  You believe that Roethlisberger has won more Super Bowls than Manning for a reason, and you know that the only thing fluky about the December 20 game was how bad the Steelers defense played against Brock Osweiler in the first half.

            Those are not necessarily bad points to make, but for me, they do not add up to enough confidence to realistically take the Steelers in this game.  If you remember correctly, Pittsburgh just nearly blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead to A.J. McCarron, and was bailed out by extremely fortunate penalties (and a few horrendous no-calls). This season, the Steelers played poorly on the road in New England, Kansas City, Seattle, and Baltimore, and with the exception of Kansas City, those games were played with healthy lineups intact.  Pittsburgh has turned the ball over two or more times in 10 of its past 11 games; Denver is 11-1 in games where they forced one takeaway.  Toussaint and Todman played well last week, but that was by far the most relevant either runningback has been in a game the past two seasons (you have to believe Cincinnati’s defensive scheme was more focused on eliminating Brown and Bryant). 

            We all know Peyton Manning isn’t necessarily Tom Brady when it comes to playoff football (nor is Brock Oswiler).  But I also know what network the game is on, and I talked about talking about which legendary announcing pair will be talking about how Peyton Manning just had the most noble and distinguished season of his amazing career (anything else is heresy).  Picking against The Sheriff is a grievous violation of taste and ethics that may be punishable by being exiled to Cincinnati and its thuggish fans.

Prediction: Denver 19, Pittsburgh 16.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 20, NY Jets 17 (OT).  Maybe this comparison is a cop-out since the 2015 Broncos are basically the same fraudulent team as the 2004 Steelers, but for no other reason, the two teams represent the pinnacle of winning games in truly lucky fashion.  The Jets had a +2 turnover margin in the game, and could have sealed victory on two separate occasions, but perhaps inevitably, Doug Brien pulled a Blair Walsh both times. I hated that game, and I hate the two teams involved in this matchup.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Write below!

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Wild Card Round

            I do not claim to be a savant when it comes to predicting the NFL, but one thing is for sure: When it comes to Wild Card weekend, in the immortal words of the second-greatest Russell of all time, I am a golden god.  Last year at this time, I went 4-0 in my picks and way back in January 2014, I also went 4-0.  Of course, going 4-0 on picks for Wild Card weekend is probably the equivalent of going 4-0 against the AFC South like certain one seeds did this season, but undefeated is still undefeated.  The reason for my success?  Hard work, determination, and strong faith.  And copious illicit supplies of human growth hormone sent to me under my spouse’s name.  But since that is apparently a less serious offense than not deflating footballs, we can say in total confidence that the captain is back! 

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3½)

Saturday, January 9, 4:20pm EST, ABC/ESPN.

            Wild Card Weekend starts out with a bang – the uber-sexy matchup of Brian Hoyer versus Alex Smith!  These two teams share a surprising number of similarities: Both had atrocious starts to the season (the Texans started 2-5, the Chiefs 1-5) followed by substantially better finishes (the Texans 7-2, the Chiefs 10-0); both spent the majority of the season struggling to overcome season-ending injuries to star runningbacks; and both had quarterbacks with remarkably similar statistics (Hoyer threw for 2,606 yards, 19 TDs and 7 INTs, Smith threw for 3,496 yards, 20 TDs and 7 INTs).

            In addition, these two teams played each other in the first week of the season.  In that game, the Chiefs jumped out to a 27-6 lead before Houston benched Hoyer, put in Ryan Mallet, and scored 11 points in the game’s final five minutes to make the final score respectable (27-20).  Looking up that game, I couldn’t believe the final score was that close; it’s hard to overstate how thoroughly Kansas City completely dominated Houston for the majority of the contest.  After their first drive ended in a punt, the Chiefs scored on their next five drives, Hoyer and Mallett were sacked for a combined five times, and the Texans finished 3-of-14 on third down conversions.  As unlikely it seemed at the time that the two teams would rematch in the playoffs, it may have even been more unlikely that Alfred Blue and Charcandrick West would be the respective starters at runningback – let alone the most unlikely wrinkle at all, which is that the winner of this game may have a decent shot at beating Denver or an injury-decimated New England next week.

            For the Texans of course, it’s not really about the offensive firepower – it’s all about J.J. Watt, who willed himself to another compelling MVP campaign and made an otherwise pedestrian defensive units one of the league’s very best. Watt recorded multiple sacks in six games, and since November 1 (when they entered the week three games under .500), the Texans have given up 60 or more rushing yards to a single player only once (LeSean McCoy).  Also in that time span, they’ve held six of their nine opponents to ten points or below.  Sure, some of those games against the Titans and Jaguars weren’t overly impressive, but let’s not forget their out-of-nowhere Monday night win in Cincinnati against the previously unbeaten Bengals or their home victory against the Jets in which DeAndre Hopkins torched Revis Island for 118 yards and two touchdowns.  The Texans are 9-0 in games where they surrendered 20 points or fewer; in games of 21 or more points, they are 0-7.

            Hopkins and Watt both have transcendent abilities to take over games, but in terms of raw firepower, that is about it for Houston.  Alfred Blue is a mediocre runningback at best (3.8 YPC this season) and is one of the worst pass-catching backs I’ve ever seen.  Hoyer’s numbers, while solid, ignore the fact that he was technically only 5-4 in games he started (three of those wins came against the Titans and Jaguars).  A lot of the gaudy numbers between him and Hopkins came in garbage time, not only against the Chiefs in Week 1 but also the Falcons (Atlanta led 42-0, but the final score was 48-21) and Dolphins (Miami led 41-0, final score 44-26).  Ten of Houston’s games were against the AFC South and NFC South, and they had no impressive wins outside of the Bengals and Jets games.  Hoyer threw for 123 yards and an interception against Cincinnati, and did not play against New York.

            The Chiefs are similarly fraudulent in the sense that few of their wins were genuinely impressive; they beat the Broncos in Denver in the game where Peyton Manning threw approximately 8,467 interceptions and defeated a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team at Arrowhead Week 7.  It also happened to be the same game where Le’Veon Bell suffered his season-ending MCL injury.  Since Week 10, Kansas City’s victories have come against Oakland (twice), San Diego (twice), Buffalo, Baltimore and Cleveland.   This would appear to diminish the integrity of the Chiefs’ 10-game winning streak, but on the other hand, it’s still fairly remarkable that they got up for each game and didn’t lose a trap game.  Maybe it’s because they knew the Broncos were even more fraudulent and that the AFC West crown was always mathematically possible.

            Whatever the reason, the 10-game winning streak doesn’t really convince me of anything beyond the fact that Kansas City’s schedule happened to be frontloaded with its tough matchups (six of its first seven games came against playoff teams).  Does anyone else remember the 2009 Chargers or the 2008 Colts?  While the Chiefs will have a healthy Tamba Hali and Justin Houston in the lineup (and mostly likely Jeremy Maclin), something about this team still doesn’t feel quite right.  Is it the Andy Reid Stench?  Is it the fact that this team hasn’t won a playoff game since the (first) Clinton administration?  Is it the fact that the most memorable thing that happened to the Chiefs this year was this unspeakable play (VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED)? 

            Picking the Chiefs in this game is undoubtedly a risky proposition, yet I cannot get that Week One game out of my head.  Sure, it was a somewhat fluky first half, but if history should repeat itself and one of these teams goes up 14-0 or 17-0, the game might as well be over. The team I project with a better chance of that occurring for is Kansas City.   Remember that stat about Houston allowing more than 21 points?  Well, the Chiefs are 9-2 in games above 21 points, and six of their eight highest-scoring games came on the road.  Kansas City’s defense has also blossomed this season, picking off 22 passes in 2015 (compared with only six interceptions in 2014).  Hopkins and Watt may be the two most talented players on the field this weekend, but Alex Smith and Andy Reid have considerably more experience than Hoyer and O’Brian.  And Houston fans need to come to grips with the fact that their playoff birth had considerably more to do with Andrew Luck’s torn abdominal muscle than anything they did on the field.  Against all odds, one of these teams will actually win this game.

Prediction: Kansas City 23, Houston 13

Playoff Doppelganger: 1993 NFC Wild Card, New York Giants 17, Minnesota 10.  Well Jeem, we were just talking about how great Peyton Manning is, and then we talked a little more about how he’s the greatest quarterback of all time, then we talked about Phil Simms’ final win of his career – a less-than-stellar victory over a Vikings team quarterbacked by Jim McMahon and Sean Salisbury (that’s right, Sean Salisbury).  Like the Chiefs, the Giants were a boring, vanilla team with an excellent but boring and vanilla defense.  They ran the ball a lot, never turned the ball over, and were coached by the ultimate Andy Reid of the 1980s and 1990s, Dan Reeves.  Neither of these teams was really going anywhere (the next week the Giants lost to the 49ers 44-3), and although I doubt Alex Smith will retire after the season, I would much rather see him in the CBS announcing booth next to Jim Nantz, talking about what a better announcer he is (or anyone would be) than Phil Simms.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2½)

Saturday, January 9, 8:15pm EST, CBS.

            Hmm, haven’t we seen this scenario before?  The dangerous six-seeded Steelers traveling to the vulnerable division champion Bengals, with Cincinnati’s star quarterback injured and unable to play?  Of course, Andy Dalton probably won’t be rolled to the ground in a vicious hit by Kimo Von Oelhoffen, but that’s probably because Dalton likely won’t be ready to start this Saturday period. 

            That begs the natural question, what are we supposed to think of A.J. McCarron?  Besides the fact that his girlfriend is still hot, it’s difficult to say.  He did throw for 280 yards in three quarters against the Steelers on December 13 (in a home game where Dalton really was injured in the first quarter and Cincinnati lost) and has looked serviceable in the three games since (2-1 overall, 4 TDs, no picks, over 62 percent completions in each of the three games).  In previous years, the thought of Andy Dalton missing a playoff game may have sounded potentially advantageous to long-suffering Bengals fans, but the truth is, Dalton was enjoying the best season of his career before his Week 14 injury.  Gone was the hesitancy, the indecisiveness, and the ability to only win divisional home games at 1pm Eastern (here’s the proof).  There’s a chance he may be able to return next week, which should hopefully give the Bengals extra motivation to come out strong.

            As competent as Dalton and McCarron have played, the key for Cincinnati is still the ground game; they were 9-1 in games where they rushed for over 100 yards, and 11-1 in games where they scored 24 or more points.  If the Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard can have success against the Steelers’ 21^st ranked defense, Cincinnati can control the flow of the game (as well as the clock).  However, Pittsburgh was substantially better against the run (ranking 5^th in the NFL) than they were against the pass (30^th), meaning Cincinnati will have to make some considerable A.J. (McCarron)-to-A.J. (Green) connections downfield. 

            If this game feels familiar to pessimistic Bengals fans, it should also feel familiar to pessimistic Steelers fans: Last year, Pittsburgh hosted a Wild Card game to a Ravens team they had also handled only weeks earlier, but Le’Veon Bell was unable to play due to a hyperextended knee.  They lost by 13.  Now Bell’s backup, DeAngelo Williams, will not play this weekend against a division opponent.  That is cause for concern, and if you don’t believe me, look at their loss against the Ravens two weeks ago: Big Ben forced passes while under pressure and even in spite of Williams having a good day, the turnovers wreaked havoc on Pittsburgh.  Roethlisberger had 16 interceptions in 12 games this year, and the Steelers were 1-4 and all six of the games where Pittsburgh had a negative turnover differential resulted in losses.

            Other bad signs for Pittsburgh: They were 4-4 on the road this year, with the four victories coming against St. Louis (by 6), San Diego (by 4), Cincinnati (without Dalton), and last week at Cleveland.  Also, they gave up 27 points in one half to Brock Osweiler, a 95 QB rating to Ryan Mallett, four touchdown passes to Derek Carr, and 385 total yards or more surrendered in eight of its games. Of course, Antonio Brown usually made up for the Steelers’ defensive woes, but in two games against the Bengals this year, he had “only” 13 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown.  By comparison, his single game average this season was 8.5 catches for 114 yards and just under a touchdown (A.J. Green’s two games against the Steelers?  A combined 17 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns).

            Pittsburgh feels like the obvious pick in this game due to the Bengals’ postseason woes, the Steelers’ postseason successes, and Dalton’s injury.  But in picking Pittsburgh, you’re also going with a team that was mediocre on the road, has a highly suspect running game at the moment, and quietly hasn’t won a road playoff game since . . . you guessed it, their improbable Super Bowl run in 2005.  The Bengals’ defense, meanwhile, gave up the second-fewest points, surrendered the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and picked off the third-most passes. Remember that although Dalton is injured, the rest of the team is at the healthiest it has been all season.  Remember that in its final ten games, Pittsburgh has committed 25 turnovers, while Cincinnati is 7-1 in games where they forced more than one turnover.  It would be naïve to completely overlook the Bengals’ woeful playoff record in the Marvin Lewis era (0-6), but I also think the public is being oversold on the Steelers, whose players are more likely to start on a fantasy football championship team than any real one.  So why not.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2000 AFC Wild Card, Miami 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT).  Another one of those Peyton Manning playoff gems.  Like the Steelers, the Colts had all the offensive firepower and most of the public betting line on their side.  Like the Bengals, the Dolphins had the better defense, the better run game, were playing at home, and were fairly comfortable in the underdog role. At the time, the two teams played in the same division and had split the regular season series with the road team victorious in each game.  This game is popularly remembered as the “Lamar Miller game” because of his unreal stat line (40 carries, 209 yards, 2 TDs); if Hill and Bernard can combine for those numbers, the Bengals should overcome the limitations of Jay Fiedler A.J. McCarron and emerge on top.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+6)

Sunday, January 10, 1:05pm EST, NBC.

            The most intriguing matchup of the weekend.  Like Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, the game feels deceptively easy to predict: The Seahawks, who haven’t lost a playoff game to an NFC team in three years, get a rematch with the same team they annihilated by 31 points on the road only five weeks ago.  Seattle gets back its star runningback (who missed the game due to injury).  Minnesota finished in the bottom five of total offense and is led by Teddy Bridgewater, a quarterback making his playoff debut.  He also threw only 14 touchdowns all season – fewer than Tyrod Taylor, Andrew Luck, and Marcus Mariota (none of whom played all 16 games like Bridgewater).

            Let’s continue to wax poetic about Seattle for a moment. Though they finished with 10 wins on the season, they finished ranked first in advanced metric’s DVOA rankings.  For the fourth straight year.  They finished first in scoring defense (also for the fourth consecutive year) and boasted the first quarterback in history with 4,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards, and 30 touchdowns thrown (and he’s a Good Person too!).  In fact, the offense (which finished fourth in the league) seemed to get better after it lost what most people thought to be its two most explosive players, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham.  Since Week 12 (Graham’s last appearance), Seattle’s offense has averaged 32.5 points per game while allowing just over 14 points.

            Let’s also look at criticisms of Seattle which I have had in the past: Namely, their poor play on the road and the subpar quality of their opponents.  After losing its first three road games, Seattle hasn’t lost away from the friendly confines of Qwest Field since October 11 – a hot streak that will prove pivotal if they hope for success in the playoffs as a 6 seed.  They did beat a lot of bad teams down the stretch (San Francisco, Baltimore, Cleveland), but also played Arizona, Carolina, Cincinnati and Green Bay.  It’s not realistic (as it was in 2013 and 2014) to claim Seattle had an easy schedule in 2015; in fact, according to standard SRS rankings, the only playoff team with a tougher regular season schedule was Green Bay.  They don’t have a great deal of injuries (although it remains to see how effective Lynch will be after his sports hernia surgery), and are eager to restore their postseason dignity after the worst hiccup in the history of football.

             The Seahawks have played the Panthers, Cardinals (twice), Packers and Vikings already, and played competitively against each of them. In fact, the Rams game two weeks ago marked the first game in Russell Wilson’s career where the Seahawks didn’t enjoy the lead at some point of the game (we’ll get back to the Rams game in a second).  T.J. Lockett patched up the holes in the special teams game; Doug Baldwin led the NFL in receiving touchdowns; Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Bobby Wagner are probably the three best defensive players in the league not named Watt.  Simply put, this team has no ostensible shortcomings.

            And yet, they somehow lost six games in 2015, which costs them any hope of enjoying the league’s most feared homefield advantage in the postseason.  Early on, Seattle had a bad case of giving up fourth quarter leads, which was probably the most uncharacteristic problem imaginable for this defense.  They did give up big passing days to Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer, and finished in the middle of the pack in takeaways.  They got lucky a few times (remember that they are the Seahawks), but no one doubts that they come into the playoffs as the league’s hottest and most feared team.  It’s possible that the Packers intentionally lost to the Vikings on Week 17, costing them the division crown and a home playoff game, just to avoid playing Seattle.

            So the best case scenario for the Vikings has little to do with the talent on the field – they need strange, extraordinary things to happen off it.  In this category, Minnesota is getting some help from the football gods: The game is scheduled to be played in sub-zero temperatures, which certainly could slow down the Wilson-to-Baldwin connection through the air.  It is also being played at 10am Pacific time Sunday; Seahawks fans will remember the last two postseason games played in that time slot were losses (to Atlanta in 2013, Chicago in 2011).  Of course, the December 6 game between the two teams was played at 10am Pacific time, but the temperature that day was a balmy 37 degrees.

            Another good sign for Minnesota: They finished the season with the league’s best record against the spread: 13-3 (13-2 if you don’t count their Week One clusterf*** against the 49ers).  And let’s be honest: the spread in this game is ridiculous.  Remember what happened after Pittsburgh was favored over Tim Tebow by 7.5 and the Saints were 10 point favorites over Beast Mode?  The Vikings certainly don’t mind being underdogs.  Finally, there’s one more important thing that should frighten Seahawks fans: The kryptonite to Seattle has been the St. Louis Rams, who swept them this season and consistently play them tough.  By my estimation, the Vikings are essentially a better version of the Rams: Outstanding defensive line, run-first ball control offense, the league’s best special teams.  Like the Rams, the offense isn’t talented enough to overcome a 14-0 or maybe even a 10-0 deficit.  That is not their game.  The game plan for the Vikings is to build an early lead, force Seattle into three-and-outs (not impossible), and have Adrian Peterson run the clock out so they can hit the warm showers early.

            All of this is good in theory, and I really want to pick the Vikings here. But I also wanted to pick Minnesota in the December 6 matchup, and we all know how that turned out (it is worth noting that Harrison Smith and Anthony Barr missed most of the game).  Minnesota did everything they were supposed to this year, and they deserve praise for a great season.  But unfortunately in this instance, they drew the short straw.  The six-point line is too high (did everyone magically forget about this?) and the game could be close, particularly if the Seahawks cannot match the Vikings’ ground attack, but there is a reason Seattle has been the league’s best regular season team four consecutive years and running.

Prediction: Seattle 24, Minnesota 19

Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 NFC Wild Card, Green Bay 21, Philadelphia 16.  The Packers were the 6 seed and Philadelphia hadn’t been division champs for a while (it was also Michael Vick’s first playoff game in six seasons and his first-ever as an Eagle).  But no one could stop Aaron Rodgers, just as no team could boast the Packers’ depth on both the offense and defensive sides of the ball (in spite of question marks in the running game).  The Packers took a 14-0 lead in the second quarter and survived a late Eagles threat to commence a Super Bowl run that many could see coming in spite of a deceptive 10-6 record.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (Pick ‘em)

Sunday, January 10, 4:40pm EST, Fox.

            The easiest game of the week to predict, although it would not have seemed that way in mid-October, when the Packers looked dominant 6-0 and the Redskins at 2-4 looked like . . . well, the Redskins.  But since then, the Packers have gone 4-6, while the Redskins have exceeded all expectations, finishing the final ten games 7-3.  I anticipate those divergent paths to remain the same this weekend.

            The line for this game is a pick ‘em for one reason and one reason alone: Aaron Rodgers.  No one wants to bet against him in the playoffs.  But in spite of the NFL’s golden boy and his ebullient glow, the Packers have serious problems.  They are incapable of mounting a consistent ground game, with Eddie Lacy oscillating somewhere between Christian Okoye and the Pillsbury Doughboy.  How is this for a stat line: This season, Lacy had more games with under 10 yards rushing (4) than games with over 100 yards (3).  Sure, he was battling injuries but inconsistency seemed to bite everyone on offense: James Jones (three 100 yard games, five games with one or less receptions), Davante Adams (eight games under 40 yards), Richard Rodgers (seven games under 20 yards).  What happened to the prolific Packers offense of three or four years ago? 

            Here’s the most amazing stat about the 2015 Packers: They went 0-3 in divisional home games.  Let me repeat that: 0-3 in divisional games at home.  That’s right, the Bears, Vikings and Lions were all victorious at Lambeau this season.  Of course, they won’t be playing any home games against the NFC North this postseason, but that information is instructive in showing that the Packers were incapable of beating teams they should have.  On the flip side, Green Bay’s most impressive win came against the Seahawks all the way back in Week 2; after that, the only playoff teams the Pack defeated were the Chiefs and the Vikings. 

            So we get that Green Bay is flawed, but . . . the Redskins?  Really?  They don’t have many impressive wins either (their biggest win was probably at Philadelphia two weeks ago) and they benefitted from playing in the NFC’s weakest division.  But there is one thing they did better than almost any other team: Washington was outstanding at home, with Kirk Cousins setting an NFL record for pass completion percentage in home games (74.7 percent).  As a team, the Redskins ran the ball pretty well too, averaging just under 129 yards per game at the friendly confines for FedEx Field.

            Cousins had an outstanding season, and his stats were remarkably similar to Rodgers (101.6 QB rating to Rodgers’ 92.7).  Between DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed, Washington has one of the best corps of unheralded receivers in the league.  The running game isn’t much, but Alfred Morris is basically a LeGarrette Blount-type who can move the ball forward on third-and-ones, and rookie Matt Jones (questionable this weekend) frequently provided a spark. 

            They’re not much on paper, but with the way that Cousins is playing right now, Washington is a threat to score from anywhere on the field.  They are 8-0 in games where they score 23 or more points (which the Packers defense has given up in five of its eight road games), and the Skins are 8-1 when turning over the ball one time or less.  Mike McCarthy isn’t exactly a safe bet in playoff games, and since their victory in Super Bowl 45, the Pack are 2-4 in the postseason.  Green Bay also hasn’t won in Washington since 2004.  At some point, these things start adding up and you find yourself going with whoever has the hot hand, which in this case is the Redskins.  Rodgers hasn’t usually been counted out, and on the few occasions he has, his response was as relieving as it was relaxing to fans.  But the Redskins feel very 2008 Cardinals-ish – a doormat franchise with an explosive offense and ragtag defense – and the Packers haven’t impressed anyone since Week Two.  Who wouldn’t like that?

Prediction: Washington 30, Green Bay 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2000 NFC Wild Card, New Orleans 31, St. Louis 28.  No one thought the Greatest Show on Turf would have any difficulties with the upstart Saints, but everyone forgot that they had a lot of injuries, turned the ball over a lot, and had a defense that couldn’t close out games.  Unlike the 2015 Redskins, the 2000 Saints were actually lousy at home (3-5) but Aaron Brooks and a trio of solid young receivers just enough to earn the franchise’s first-ever playoff win.  It would not be their last.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Surprised I went the entire article without mentioning my the league's best quarterback who didn't need HGH?  Let me know below.