Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2017: Wild Card Round

            It feels weird writing the 2017 Wild Card Weekend NFL Playoff Predictions article without mentioning the Cincinnati Bengals. Not only have they played in the Wild Card round every year since 2011 (and seven times in the past 11 years), they’ve lost every game they’ve played.  That leads to the question why there aren’t more rich gamblers out there who made millions betting against the Bengals in the playoffs; it also begs the question why anyone would have ever predicted them to win.  They made writing this column considerably easier.  In fact, Cincinnati’s inevitable playoff exits were easier to predict than Rob Gronkowski’s back injury, Cleveland Browns misery, or the length of time of Grayson Allen’s “indefinite” suspension.

            Alas, Andy Dalton and company will not be seen on TV this January. Ironically, 2017 may have been their best shot at getting past Wild Card weekend; the Texans, Dolphins, and Carr-less Raiders don’t exactly strike fear into anyone’s souls.  In fact, I would guess that this year’s Bengals – a team that won 6 games and whose only road victories came against the Browns and Jets – would be favored in any hypothetical matchup against Houston, Miami, or Oakland (also don’t forget, against the Steelers last month they blew a two touchdown lead in classic Bengals fashion).  The AFC is just that bad. Where are Dalton, Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers when you need them?

            On the flip side, three of the four NFC teams on Wild Card weekend have Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks; two of those quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, won Super Bowls as part of wild card teams.  Does this mean the eventual Super Bowl 51 champ is a team we will see this weekend? I don’t doubt it, particularly since the top teams have potentially fatal flaws: New England (no Gronk), Kansas City (no offense), Atlanta (no defense) and America’s Team (no playoff experience or eagerness of anyone to watch them on national TV for an 18^th straight week).

            Therefore, here are my predictions for this weekend’s slot of games, with the maximum amount of snark and sarcasm inserted.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-4)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35pm EST, NBC.

            Like Yankees-Red Sox, Ali-Frazier, and Ecks-Sever, this is one of the great rivalries of our time.  For the Raiders: The first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first start in a playoff game (Connor Cook); a coach with only one playoff win lifetime; the NFL’s leading team in penalties committed; and a franchise that hasn’t made a playoff appearance since the era of Napster and America Online. For the Texans: A team that was outscored by 49 points during the regular season (amazingly, that’s only the 4^th worst of any playoff team since 2002); two quarterbacks so incompetent that they managed to make an offense with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Lamar Miller look like a high school JV squad (the Texans never scored more than 27 points in a game this year); a defense missing its best player; and a team coming out of the worst division in football. The difference between the Texans, the 1^st place team in the AFC South, and the Jaguars, the last place team in the AFC South, was a combined 4 points in two matchups this year.

             Thank god this game is Saturday afternoon I guess. A tangent for a second: I don’t know who decided that Saturday afternoon was the best time for the useless wild card game no one wants to see, but they need to reevaluate their thinking.  The playoffs should open with a bang, not a sobering reminder that two of the league’s best 12 teams are quarterbacked by Connor Cook and Brockom Savagosweiler.  This isn’t March Madness, we don’t need the play-in game first.  Leave this game for Sunday afternoon, when everyone is tired after 13 hours of football and on the verge of divorce. I mean, I’m excited for the playoffs.  I can’t wait for football.  This is not football, this is a travesty.  Who is even announcing this game? Pepper Brooks from ESPN 8 “the Ocho”? (That joke was funny the last time the Raiders were in the playoffs).

            Someone will miraculously emerge from this game in order to punch their ticket to Foxboro to be decimated by Tom Brady, and I think that team is Houston.  They simply have the advantage in too many areas.  Quarterback? Texans (somehow improbably). Defense? Texans.  Running Game? About even.  Receivers? Utterly irrelevent in this matchup.  Kickers? Very yes.  The Texans won only two games against teams with winning records this year (the Chiefs, back when J.J. Watt was in the lineup, and the Lions), but they did go 7-1 at home this year and led the league in fewest yards allowed.  Watt’s absence looms large, but Jadeveon Clowney and John Simon have picked up the slack on the pass rush, and the defense ranks third-lowest in opponents’ QBR.  No, their schedule left much to be desired, but the Texans did play and beat Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, and Marcus Mariota. 

            We don’t really know if Connor Cook is cut out for a professional career and even though he’s protected by one of the best offensive lines in football and has two of the premier receivers, I simply cannot imagine him finding much success against this defense in Houston.  The Raiders did a lot of things well this season: they beat good teams, they ran the ball well, they had a great turnover margin, and Carr was a solid MVP candidate.  Carr’s injury will go down as one of the great “what-ifs” due to the mediocrity of this year’s AFC playoff class.  Oakland went 12-1 in games where they scored 17 or more points; that is the formula for a potential upset victory.  They scored 27 points against the Texans in their November matchup, but Carr accounted for nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.  I’d be surprised if Connor Cook can match a third of that performance.

            My advice for Bill O’Brian: Go with Tom Savage (or as my resident Texans fan friend Amit calls him, Conservative Radio Host Tom Savage).  An intimidating last name has to be good for something.

Prediction: Houston 20, Oakland 6

Playoff Doppelganger: Every Saturday afternoon playoff game involving the Texans or Bengals since 2011.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15pm EST, NBC.

            Man, but was that Steven Hauschka extra point miss in Week 16 costly.  Had Hauschka connected with the PAT and the Seahawks taken care of business at home against the Cardinals, Seattle would be using this weekend to rest up for a home game in the divisional round. Instead, the ball sailed wide left, Carson Palmer got the ball back, Chandler Catanzaro did his job, and the Seahawks are 10-5-1 and the 3 seed instead of 11-4-1 and the 2 seed.

            Of course, many Seahawk fans would argue that the season was doomed weeks before the Hauschka miss – Week 13, to be exact, when Earl Thomas was lost for the year. Or maybe Week 11, when C.J. Prosise fractured his scapula days after Christine Michael was traded to the Packers.  Or maybe any of the first 11 weeks of the season, when Russell Wilson didn’t have a single game with over 20 yards rushing.  Of course Seattle’s defense was reliably strong, but with four games against the Rams and 49ers, along with matchups against the Eagles, Jets, and Panthers, it’s hard to imagine any defense not playing adequately against that slate.

            It’s also difficult to imagine the Lions actually winning in Seattle, although it’s come close to happening.  Matthew Stafford is 5-45 against teams above .500 and only one of those wins was on the road.  This season, the Lions went 0-5 against playoff teams.  Detroit’s most impressive win was either at Indianapolis or at New Orleans, and they come into this weekend having lost three straight games – any one of which would have dramatically helped them secure a home game.  As a franchise, Detroit has won one playoff game since 1958.

            Shall I continue? The Lions had the league’s third-worst rushing attack; only the hapless Rams and Vikings finished worse.  Detroit’s defense, which allowed an NFC-high 33 passing touchdowns, hasn’t forced a turnover since December 4 – that’s 16 straight quarters, in case you’re counting.  Matthew Stafford did lead the league in fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives (8) – but again, when your opponents are Minnesota, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville, isn’t that statistic more illustrative of the fact that the Lions actually could have actually blown any of those games?

            The real question mark for this game shouldn’t be the ultimate outcome, but if Stafford can cover the 8-point spread with a backdoor touchdown in the 4^th quarter (if QBs would win an award for that, Stafford would be MVP every year). Neither of these teams are very good, and as in the early Saturday game, this one should be sloppy and monotonous.  The Seahawks haven’t beaten a playoff team at home since October and have, by my estimation, the worst offensive line of any team in the playoffs.  They are the beneficiaries of a shitty division, a couple of typically Seahawks-like bullshit miraculous finishes, and they owe Aaron Rodgers a big “thanks a bunch!” for last Sunday night.

Prediction: Seattle 13, Detroit 9

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 NFC Wild Card Round, Philadelphia 23, NY Giants 20. The Eagles weren’t that great (no McNabb; T.O. had bolted to the Cowboys; their best receiver was Reggie Brown); the Giants weren’t that great either (pre-Helmet Catch Eli, Tiki Barber’s final season, an 8-8 team that snuck in after losing 6 of its final eight).  The result was a somewhat surprisingly close game that was never in too much doubt and, like Jeff Garcia’s career in Philadelphia, was quickly forgotten.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            The two “good” playoff games this week are the Sunday games, although Vegas apparently does not realize this.  Like the Lions, I’m not quite ready yet to call Miami a good team that could go into one of the NFL’s toughest places to play and come out with a victory; but on the other hand, there’s a lot of reasons to think that the Dolphins can at least hang within single digits.

            For starters, look no further than October 16, when the Dolphins trounced the Steelers 30-15.  There’s a lot of caveats in that game (it was in Miami, Tannehill was QB, and Roethlisberger was injured late), but there’s a few things we can take away from it, too.  In case you haven’t heard from ESPN’s NFL crew a thousand times already, that was the first breakout game for Jay Ajayi, who torched the Steelers for 204 yards and two touchdowns. Not that Tannehill had to do much, but he still completed 75% of his passes for 252 yards, and Miami racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. The result was so stunning that it launched both teams in radically different directions; the Dolphins won nine of their next 11, clinching a playoff birth that seemed highly unlikely at the beginning of the season, while the Steelers began a four-game losing streak (they eventually rebounded by winning their next seven; don’t worry, like Jason Voorhees and Donald Trump, evil never dies).

            So why is Pittsburgh giving 10 points to Miami?  Two main reasons: The Steelers’ name recognition and pedigree, and the fact that Ryan Tannehill is not playing. Let’s go into why those reasons are flawed. Yes, Pittsburgh is capable of winning the Super Bowl and yes, they were a top-10 offensive and defensive team in 2016.  Yes, they have momentary flashes of being a juggernaut.  They also played six games against the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns.  And they also had inexplicable stinkers (like Philadelphia and Baltimore and . . . OK, maybe Miami). They come in on a seven-game winning streak, but look at who they played: The Browns twice, Scott Tolzien’s Colts, the Bad Eli Giants, the Bills, the Bengals, and the Ravens (a game they barely escaped).

            Then there’s Tannehill, or more precisely, his absence.  Tannehill played well before injuring his knee in Week 14.  But in his place, Matt Moore has actually put up better stats and more points.  I don’t think there’s any denying that Tannehill is the superior QB, but not by that much; and let’s be honest, Miami’s recipe this weekend is going to be a healthy dose of the running game.  The Dolphins are 9-0 when running for more than 80 yards (the Steelers are 9-1 in games when they rush for 95 or more yards). Pittsburgh’s rush defense is middle-of-the-pack; Miami’s is abysmal, with only the Browns and 49ers ranking worse.

            That last stat is the biggest reason I don’t have enough courage to take Miami straight-up in this game (also, the Dolphins’ cakewalk schedule). But if you are picking Miami, there’s some historical precedent here; shockingly, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a wild card game since 2005.  They’ve been heavily favored in playoff losses to the Ravens, Jaguars, and most memorably, the Denver Tebows.  Pittsburgh may very well be the best team in the AFC; they demolished the Chiefs, missed Le’Veon Bell for four games, Roethlisberger for two (including their loss to New England) and still ended up in the top half of the NFL in virtually every statistical category.  But for a team so venerated, they are frustratingly inconsistent; only the 1999-2001 Rams come close to approaching the staggering highs and confounding lows of the Steelers the last few seasons.  Miami has success against this team, and I expect this game to be closer than many might think.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Miami 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2002 AFC Wild Card, Pittsburgh 36, Cleveland 33.  Still remember this game like it was yesterday.  No one gave the Browns a chance, particularly since the Browns were starting an unknown, little-used backup named Kelly Holcomb. The Browns led by 17 points in the second half and by 12 with under 5 minutes left… and then the inevitable happened.  It was Cleveland’s first playoff game in nearly decade, and they will probably never be in one again.      

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-4½)
Sunday, January 8, 4:40pm EST, Fox.

            If you are able to survive the horrific train crash that is the first three games of Wild Card weekend 2017, you will be rewarded with this true gem.  Consider the following facts:

1.     Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning have combined for three Super Bowl titles.

2.     The Giants defeated the Packers at Lambeau Field in each of its two Super Bowl runs.

3.     Rodgers and Manning won titles with their first playoff games played on the road during wild card weekend.

4.     Aaron Rodgers should be MVP of the league (again).

5.     The Giants beat the Cowboys twice and finished second in defense.

6.     Green Bay has scored 24 points or more in all but four of its games; New York has only allowed over 24 points on one occasion.

7.     Oh yeah, and the winner of this game will play Dak Prescott and a Cowboys franchise that hasn’t advanced past the divisional round in two decades.

There’s many reasons to like the Giants in this game.  They’ve played a tougher

schedule; their secondary has been stingy against opposing QBs (allowing a combined QB rating of 75.8); and they have the best receiver in football.  But let’s just cut out all the window dressing and state the major reason why the Packers are the pick here: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Rodgers.

            Wow, I sounded like an ESPN personality there, didn’t I?  But I’m not being facetious or oversimplistic; since November 13, Rodgers has thrown 18 touchdowns and no interceptions.  He completed over 61 percent of his passes in every one of those games and has done this with no running game.  I understand the arguments against voting him MVP – namely, that he only played well in November and December, and the MVP of the league needs to win more than 10 games.  But those arguments are weak.  Before November 13, Rodgers still had 22 touchdowns and a QB rating of 94; and 2012 MVP Adrian Peterson played for 10-win, 6 seeded Vikings team.  No one could possibly do what Aaron Rodgers does on a weekly basis.

            The Packers defense is also playing better. In Green Bay’s current six-game winning streak, the defense has forced 15 turnovers (against the offense’s one giveaway) and allowed 18 points per game.  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett are the best safeties in football, and Green Bay was one of seven teams to finish with 40+ sacks.  They went 10-1 when allowing fewer than 30 points.  But back to the offense again.  Ty Montgomery has emerged as a duel threat out of the backfield and Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams combined for 2254 yards and 26 touchdowns receiving. The Packers have scored at least three touchdowns in every game since Week 6.

            I’m also suspicious of the claim that because the Giants were so great on the road in 2007 and 2011, they’ll find repeat success this January.  Besides New York’s opening week victory in Dallas, they’ve only won road games in Los Angeles, Cleveland, and last week in Washington.  New York’s offense has quietly cooled down quite a bit too; they haven’t scored over 20 points in a game since November 27, and they are -2 on the season in turnover ratio (the result of too many Bad Eli games). 

            Could the Giants march into Lambeau like they did in ’07 and ’11 and come away with a win?  Without a doubt.  But in order to do that, Good Eli needs to show up (50% chance of happening), the Giants need to score 30 points (very low chance of happening, since it didn’t happen once during the regular season), and the Packers need to revert to their September and October identity.  New York will need to figure out a running game, and Ben McAdoo will have to do his best to summon the purple spirit of Tom Coughlin.  A lot of things have to go right for the Giants to win (not saying that hasn’t happened before) but only one of these teams has been the hottest team in football the last six weeks.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, New York 14

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 AFC Wild Card, New England 37, NY Jets 16.  Two rivals that knew each other well, but the home team was just better and hotter.  Skeptics thought Brady lacked a sufficient number of weapons on offense (particularly with the dead ground game of Laurence Maroney and Old Corey Dillon), but the Patriots reminded everyone that they were the Patriots in a game that wasn’t as close as observers thought it would be.

 Comments? Thoughts? Unnecessary digressions? Post them below!

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Division Round

            If the Seahawks win on a missed chip-shot field goal . . .

            And if the Steelers win because of horrible officiating . . .

            And if Aaron Rodgers and Andy Reid make you feel stupid for betting against them . . .

            And if the Bengals, Vikings, Redskins, and Texans all lost in horrible fashion . . .

            That can only mean one thing: It’s the NFL playoffs!  Of the remaining eight quarterbacks, one has never won a playoff game, two have never made it to a Super Bowl, and the other five share a combined nine championships.  I wonder if that information will play any significant role in which teams I predict to win this week.  It sure as hell didn’t last week, when I took A.J. McCarron and Kirk Cousins, and they each broke my heart.  But hey, when you play with matches, you tend to get burned – kind of like how if you send your linebackers coach on to the field to incite the opposing team in order to draw a late-game penalty, you get condemned by league officials.  Or if you purchased illegal HGH supplements and had them shipped to your house under your wife’s name, you get publicly criticized.  Or if you are found not guilty of deflating footballs, you still get unfairly ostracized by the media.  Yep, it’s the NFL playoffs and I am in a bitter mood!

Kansas City at New England (-5½)

Saturday, January 16, 4:35pm EST, CBS.

            In the first half of the 2015 season, the Patriots were the 2014 version of themselves (unstoppable on offense, annihilating teams every week, playing angry, disciplined, mistake-free football).  During the second half, however, the Patriots were the 2013 version of themselves (ridden with injuries at every conceivable position, eager to run the clock to get out of games without suffering further injuries, no consistent running game to speak of).  So heading into this week, it is more than understandable to ask the question: Which team are they?  The 2013 team, which limped into the playoffs without its biggest weapons and subsequently lost in Denver, or the 2014 Super Bowl championship team?

            For the moment, let’s stick to what we know.  The Patriots have historically dominated the divisional round in the Brady/Belichick era, winning eight out of a possible nine home games.  The Chiefs are coming off their first playoff victory in two decades over a team that should have never made the playoffs to begin with.  The Patriots are expected to start several of their biggest players who have been sidelined due to injury (including Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Devin McCourty).  The Chiefs have some injury question marks, none bigger than Jeremy Maclin and Justin Houston.

            But then there are the things that make me nervous as a biased Patriots fan.  One is that Kansas City has won 11 straight games; we had a similar streak in 2003, and when you win that many games, you panic less, come together as a team more, and eliminate the kind of intimation Bill Belichick teams typically thrive upon.  Conversely, the Pats finished the season 2-4.  Of course, we were banged up and perhaps mucking around to avoid getting the one seed for some unknown reason (kind of like how we inexplicably kicked off to the Jets to start OT a few weeks ago).  No one ever said being a Patriots fan wasn’t interesting.

            Another scary element looming in the minds of Pats fans is the last time we played the Chiefs – you know, when Trent Dilfer called Tom Brady old and said we would have to start playing Jimmy G.  But should we put a lot of stock in that game?  At the same time, I wrote last week that many of the Chiefs’ wins during their current streak are unimpressive (last week was a beautiful illustration of that), and as I said above, at least a few of the Pats’ late-season losses were due to trying to avoid the Steelers injuries.

            New England loses when three things happen: When Tom Brady is pressured and sacked; when they cannot run the ball (2-3 in games of 70 or fewer yards); and when they score under 27 points (1-3 in such games this season).  Essentially, we can chalk those three factors to one simple strategy: The Chiefs’ defensive line has to play outstanding.  When Tom Brady is given time in the pocket, as the Ravens and Seahawks crucially permitted him last season, the Patriots are virtually impossible to beat, and that’s not even considering when Edelman and Gronkowski playing at their highest levels.  The Chiefs sacked Brian Hoyer three times last week, and forced four interceptions; but I think it’s safe to say that Hoyer is not Tom Brady.

            It is worth noting, however, that Brady has been sacked 38 times this season – the only time he had more sacks was in 2013.  Then there’s his high ankle sprain suffered in the season finale against Miami.  The Patriots notoriously underplay the extent of their injuries, but Brady was noticeably limping in that game.  The offensive line has been in shambles since November, and with no LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis, the Pats will have to rely on the legs of (gulp) Steven Jackson and Brandon Boldin.  Sure, we didn’t exactly light the running game on fire last year against the Ravens or Seahawks, but at least we could fake the run or call for play-action.  Not this week (or this postseason, for that matter.)

            At this point, you may be thinking, “OK, so the Chiefs defense, which specializes in stuffing the ground game and pressuring the QB, may have the advantage.  But they still cannot score points.”  Well, that deserves a more careful look.  The four quarterbacks who managed to beat New England this year were Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill (suddenly the name “Alex Smith” doesn’t seem all that bad).  Two of those losses came when the Pats blew two-touchdown leads; in the other two we gave up 300 yards through the air, 5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.  Want more?  This season, the Pats defense only had five games with multiple takeaways.  Compare that with nine such games each in 2014 and 2013.  Including last week, the Chiefs have nine games where the offense scored 26+ points, and seven of those games were on the road. The Pats were 3-3 in games giving up 26+ points.

            The Chiefs aren’t exactly an electric offense, but Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and even Alex Smith are all better running options than the Pats’ best runningback.  They doubled the Patriots turnover ratio (+14 compared to +7) and played a much tougher schedule (Kansas City only lost one AFC road game all season).  There’s no combination quite like Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but Andy Reid and Alex Smith each have considerable playoff experience too. The Patriots come into the game with more off-field drama and higher expectations; having thrilled an already ecstatic Kansas City fan base, the Chiefs should come into the game feeling like they are playing with house money.

            It may be shocking to say, but here goes nothing: I think I have to pick against my beloved team.  I can’t help but notice the eerie parallels between this Chiefs teams and the other teams we’ve blown playoff games to (specifically, the Mark Sanchez-led Jets and the Ravens): An offense prioritizing ball control, a brutal defensive line, prior success against the Patriots, and a fearless coaching staff.  The 11-game winning streak may give the Chiefs too much confidence, but watching them last week (in an admittedly one-sided game), there wasn’t any discernable sense of cockiness or hubris.  The best-case scenario for the Patriots is, like they’ve done so many times before, Tom Brady shuts up all the doubters, they build a quick 14-0 lead, and the environment of Gillette Stadium in January intimidates the opponent into submission.  The problem is, sadly, I believe the Patriots really tried to win many of those games they ultimately lost down the stretch, while the Chiefs have played the last three months unafraid of anyone or anything. 

Prediction: Kansas City 24, New England 17

Playoff doppelganger: 2010 AFC Divisional Round, NY Jets 28, New England 21.  Because of course.  This game took me many years to recover from, but when I finally overcame it, the feeling was so sweet.  Serenity now, serenity now.

           

Green Bay at Arizona (-7)

Saturday, January 16, 8:15pm EST, NBC.

            The writing was on the wall going into last Sunday, when everyone was picking Washington over Green Bay.  It’s never good when you are the trendy, popular pick; just ask Mark Helfrich.  Meanwhile, everyone did not relax and forgot that they were picking Kirk Cousins over the Super Bowl champion, two-time league MVP, and Mr. Olivia Munn.

            It’s fair to say that the Packers resemble the Patriots in how erratic and bipolar they’ve looked down the stretch, due in large part to injuries.  Since October, they’ve won just four games – against Minnesota, Dallas, Oakland, and the Hail Mary in Detroit – and when you add in last week, the Packers’ resume doesn’t look that outstanding.  I mean, this is the same team that lost to Denver, Carolina, and Arizona by a combined score of 104 to 47.  But like the Patriots, maybe Green Bay’s M.O. has been to rest everyone and don’t worry about giving maximal effort until the postseason.  Hell, that always seems to work for Eli Manning.

            It’s also possible that the Redskins were a fraudulent team that won nine games in a horrific division, but any time a team can win by 17 points on the road – especially after overcoming an early deficit of 11 points – the result is impressive and merits consideration.  Obviously, the Cardinals are a much more difficult challenge for Green Bay, particularly because they beat the Packers by 30 on December 27.  But if you accept the logic that Green Bay wasn’t playing at full strength or effort for much of the season, you may have to throw out much of what that game appeared to demonstrate.

            And what did that game show?  Green Bay’s offensive line was awful, giving up an unbelievable eight sacks, while Corey Redding and Jerraud Powers each had fumble returns for touchdowns.  Arizona’s secondary was even more outstanding, limiting Rodgers to 151 yards and only one touchdown.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense did what it has done all year – create big passing plays down the field, enable a consistent and diverse running game (David Johnson, Andre Ellington, and Kerwynn Williams each had at least seven carries for 39 yards), and limit turnovers. 

            At 36 years old, Carson Palmer is coming off the best statistical season of his career, throwing for over 4,600 yards, 35 touchdowns, and most importantly, not getting injured.  That critical caveat is what worries me most about Palmer.  In his career, he has missed 32 games due to injury.  Injuries have also sidelined Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Johnson, both of which are huge blows to this team.  In spite of this, Arizona looked great down the stretch – that is, until two weeks ago when the Seahawks demolished the Cardinals at home (in a game in which every probability seemed to be pointing toward Palmer taking a Michael Bennett hit and being sidelined for the playoffs; instead, that hit was made by N’Damukong Suh on Tom Brady). Like the Patriots and the Packers, that late-season loss was alarming; but was it a meaningless game in which starters were rested, or does Arizona really have some gaping holes to fix?

            In many respects, the Cardinals may have had the most balanced and complete team in the league in 2015, but besides the injury worries, one thing also strikes me about them: Outside of that Packers victory, they don’t have too many impressive wins on their resume.  True, they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and the next week took care of business at home against the Bengals – but look at the rest of the teams they beat: New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco (twice), Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota and Philadelphia. No Carolina, no Denver or New England, and their non-Seahawk losses were to the Steelers and Rams.  You can’t control what schedule you get, but Arizona’s is a little suspect.

            Two other observations about the Cardinals’ losses this year: In each of the three games, they gave up over 120 yards on the ground and could not force a turnover (conversely, they had three giveaways in each game).  Last week, the Packers had 141 yards rushing and only turned the ball over once.  Green Bay had eight games where they didn’t turn the ball over at all, while Arizona had eight games with multiple giveaways.

            If there was any lesson learned last weekend, it was: Don’t discount the experienced playoff QB.  Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger beat Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, and A.J. McCarron.  I think Palmer is in a class just above those last four guys, but he’s still 0 for 1 in playoff games (I don’t count the Steelers debacle in 2006), while Rodgers just won his fourth road playoff game.  Including last week, five of the six games where the Packers scored 29 or more points came on the road.  Outside of Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins, the Packers’ defense is the healthiest it has been all season, which is probably the same thing you can say about the Green Bay running game.  David Johnson has been great for the Cardinals, but he is still a rookie, while players like John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Deone Bucannon, and Markus Golden are still in their first couple years as pros.  Meanwhile, everyone is picking against Green Bay once again, which is exactly the way Aaron Rodgers likes it.  It’s a tough call but in this circumstance, I say experience means something.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Arizona 27

Playoff doppelganger: 2008 NFC Divisional Round, Arizona 33, Carolina 13. Cardinals fans will certainly remember this one: Stumbling into the playoffs, with no one giving them any chance, with no running game or consistency to speak of, the wily veteran Kurt Warner defied all the odds and showed why experience and a strong arm are two of the most important commodities to have in a postseason run.  Like the 2015 Cardinals, the 2008 Panthers were coming off the franchise’s best season and were the critical darlings of many prognosticators.  But then Jake Delhomme became Jake Delhomme and turned the ball over 13450924332 times.  I bet he still wishes he could have gotten bailed out in the first quarter by Kimo von Oelhoffen.

           

Seattle at Carolina (-3)

Sunday, January 17, 1:05pm EST, Fox.

            It is very possible that these are the two best teams in the NFL at the moment.  One is the two-time defending conference champion, the other became the sixth team in NFL history to finish 15-1 and has a QB who is the shoo-in for league MVP.  After four consecutive Seahawks victories over the Panthers (by an average of just under 7 points) Carolina finally took down Seattle this season in Week 6, with Cam Newton connecting on the game-winning touchdown to Greg Olsen.  That felt like a seminal and tide-changing moment in Carolina Panthers franchise history – as well as the most frustrating and bitter moment in the Seahawks season.

            I believe the Panthers were the best team in football in 2015.  You can find holes here and there; they did it without Kelvin Benjamin, relied perhaps too heavily on the likes of Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess, and had the luxury of playing ten games against the NFC South and AFC South.  They haven’t played a team with a winning record since November 8, and had several games this year (including vs. Indianapolis, Green Bay, New Orleans, and the Giants) where they blew double-digit leads, but hung on to win.  Sometimes it wasn’t pretty.  Often times it wasn’t overly impressive on the field.  But finishing 15-1, leading the league in scoring offense, rushing offense, and takeaways, and having the league’s best player score 45 touchdowns is undeniably impressive.

            The Seahawks weren’t exactly pretty either last week, relying on a bad offensive play, a bad defensive play, and a reprehensible special teams play by their opponent to win by a single point.  Has there ever been a luckier team in NFL history than the Seahawks?  I don’t deny that they’re immensely talented on both sides of the ball, but at this point, how can anyone be surprised anymore when these types of antics occur (Bill Barnwell had a perfect tweet about this).  As a Seahawks hater, I knew that a 27-yard chip shot was too good to be true.  I knew that Peterson would fumble at a critical time (ask Todd if you don’t believe me), just like I knew they would recover that stupid onside kick last year, just like I knew the refs would uphold the Fail Mary. I’m not Nostradamus.  I’m a Seahawks hater.

            In many respects, Carolina is the most desirable opponent for the Seahawks.  Without that Newton-to-Olsen touchdown, Seattle would be 5-0 against Carolina in the Russell Wilson era (never mind that each game was close, that’s just always how Seattle plays).  Last week was the eighth time the Seahawks have faced off against a playoff team this season.  This week will be the sixth time they’ve faced a playoff team on the road.  They get back a healthy Marshawn Lynch, a healthy Luke Willson, and the weather will not be below zero.  In his five games against the Seahawks, Cam Newton has thrown four touchdowns, five interceptions, has never rushed for over 42 yards, and has only completed 56 percent of his passes.  Against the Panthers, Russell Wilson has thrown for seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and has completed over 68 percent of his passes.

            Look, it’s not rocket science here.  Seattle had the tougher schedule; they have the better quarterback, the better coach, more playoff experience, resentment stemming the game earlier this season, and they have their best offensive player in the lineup once again.  Carolina played weak teams all year, have only one playoff win in Cam’s career (vs. Ryan Lindley), will be missing one of its premier defenders (Charles Tillman), questionable receivers, and they give up leads.  Cam’s stats look great, but he also had a completion rate under 60 percent and only had four games where he averaged more than five yards per rush attempt.  Carolina comes in as the favorite because they won 15 games, but shared only two common opponents with Seattle: Dallas and Green Bay.  The Panthers haven’t advanced past the divisional round since 2005.

            If you take the Panthers, you are choosing to believe that Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and Jerricho Cotchery can beat Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas.  You’re choosing to believe that the team with the easiest schedule in the league – a team that struggled in December games against the Saints, Giants, and Falcons – can beat a team that has surrendered three offensive touchdowns in its last six games.  You’re choosing to take the #1 offense over the #1 defense in a game where the latter hasn’t lost in the playoffs to an NFC opponent in three years.  You’re choosing to take the quarterback that has been historically stifled over the quarterback that does this.  I think it’s a no-brainer.  Minnesota had its chance last week.  That’s the closest it is going to get.

           

Prediction: Seattle 37, Carolina 17

Playoff doppelganger: 2010 NFC Divisional Round, Green Bay 48, Atlanta 21.  The Falcons came into the game as the trendy #1 seed in the NFC, except they had played a fraudulent schedule with the exception of a three-point regular season win over the Packers.  That was enough to rile Aaron Rodgers up, and he torched the Falcons much-vaunted defense for 366 yards and four total touchdowns.  In the cases of both the Packers and the Seahawks, not having a bye may actually help preserve momentum and focus.

Pittsburgh at Denver (-7)
Sunday, January 17, 4:40pm EST, CBS.

            Ten years ago, Ben Roethlisberger and the six-seeded Steelers marched confidently on the road in the divisional round and beat top-seeded Peyton Manning (due in large part to the unheralded defensive playmaking of Big Ben). Four years ago, the Steelers marched confidently into Denver in the divisional round and were 7½-point favorites over Tim Tebow, until this happened.  Of course, Manning didn’t play for the Broncos in 2006, nor was he on the field in 2011, but hopefully you get the idea: This matchup, in whatever form it has taken, has given us some of the more remarkable and improbable results the past decade.

            There are a lot of unknowns in this matchup, but there are a few things we know for sure.  One is that the 2015 Broncos were a very fortunate team.  They were all but done in Kansas City until Jeremy Hill Jamaal Charles was given the ball late; they trailed the Patriots by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter until the refs suddenly remembered who they were rooting for and commenced calling excessive penalties on Rob Gronkowski; they survived overtime contests against the Browns and Bengals, and somehow beat San Diego in spite of five giveaways.  Their quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, a 76.3 QB rating, and 12 wins.  They had no major injuries to speak of all season (outside of Manning’s, which may have given him two months of significant rest) and four of their five wins over playoff teams came at home (the only win was the infamous Chiefs game at Arrowhead).

            We also know that after last week, the Steelers are considerably banged up, with likely game-time decisions for DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown, as well as a beat-up Roethlisberger, but still . . . Denver is a seven-point favorite?  Am I not understanding something here?  The Broncos beat only four teams all season by a touchdown or more, while four of the Steelers’ five losses with Roethlisberger under center were by seven points or fewer.  Four weeks ago, on December 20, the Broncos not only lost to the Steelers, but gave up the most points in any game they played all season (34).  And oh yeah, Denver’s starting quarterback has lost six times in the divisional round, and has gone one-and-done in the playoffs a record nine times.

            It’s certainly a considerable advantage for the Broncos if Williams and Brown cannot play.  Denver’s unequivocal strength is its top-rated defense, which went 11-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer.  They only gave up one 300-yard passer all season (you guessed it) and in the December 20 game, Williams was a virtual non-factor, rushing 14 times for only 26 yards (Emmanuel Sanders nearly outgained him on the ground on one carry).  The Broncos scored 27 points in the game’s first 28 minutes, before Osweiler and company were shut out in the second half.  I watched that game and neither team looked perfect, with each throwing pivotal interceptions in the game’s final five minutes.  I will say that I cannot imagine Denver players being too thrilled with the way they finished that game.

            The Sheriff Manning will of course be an important factor, but I feel like the Broncos are the kind of team that can survive a 120-yard, 2-interception performance (oddly enough, I feel that way about the Steelers too).  And the question must be asked: If Manning is in the midst of another divisional round dud, why wouldn’t Gary Kubiak pull the trigger and put Osweiler in?  Denver went 8-1 in games where they rushed for 100+ yards (again, you can guess where their one loss came).  Pittsburgh’s defense has played quietly well against the run all season, and if you take away the one long gain surrendered to Jeremy Hill, the Bengals only ran 23 times for 53 yards last week.  But if the Steelers’ run defense has been quiet, the Broncos’ run defense has been booming, allowing only one 100-yard rusher all season (this time it might not be who you guessed).

            If you’re picking the Steelers in this game, you believe that Manning’s two months of rest will have little impact on his well-documented playoff demons.  You believe that Pittsburgh can score 24 points against anyone, at any location, and you believe that Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jordan Todman, and Martavis Bryant can make up for the losses to Williams and Brown (who may still play anyway).  You believe that Roethlisberger has won more Super Bowls than Manning for a reason, and you know that the only thing fluky about the December 20 game was how bad the Steelers defense played against Brock Osweiler in the first half.

            Those are not necessarily bad points to make, but for me, they do not add up to enough confidence to realistically take the Steelers in this game.  If you remember correctly, Pittsburgh just nearly blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead to A.J. McCarron, and was bailed out by extremely fortunate penalties (and a few horrendous no-calls). This season, the Steelers played poorly on the road in New England, Kansas City, Seattle, and Baltimore, and with the exception of Kansas City, those games were played with healthy lineups intact.  Pittsburgh has turned the ball over two or more times in 10 of its past 11 games; Denver is 11-1 in games where they forced one takeaway.  Toussaint and Todman played well last week, but that was by far the most relevant either runningback has been in a game the past two seasons (you have to believe Cincinnati’s defensive scheme was more focused on eliminating Brown and Bryant). 

            We all know Peyton Manning isn’t necessarily Tom Brady when it comes to playoff football (nor is Brock Oswiler).  But I also know what network the game is on, and I talked about talking about which legendary announcing pair will be talking about how Peyton Manning just had the most noble and distinguished season of his amazing career (anything else is heresy).  Picking against The Sheriff is a grievous violation of taste and ethics that may be punishable by being exiled to Cincinnati and its thuggish fans.

Prediction: Denver 19, Pittsburgh 16.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 20, NY Jets 17 (OT).  Maybe this comparison is a cop-out since the 2015 Broncos are basically the same fraudulent team as the 2004 Steelers, but for no other reason, the two teams represent the pinnacle of winning games in truly lucky fashion.  The Jets had a +2 turnover margin in the game, and could have sealed victory on two separate occasions, but perhaps inevitably, Doug Brien pulled a Blair Walsh both times. I hated that game, and I hate the two teams involved in this matchup.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Write below!