Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Conference Championships

            Conference Championship Sunday is maybe my favorite day in all of sports.  You have the four best teams in football, none of which have the advantage of coming off a bye week, all of which are eager to play in the biggest game of the year.  You have passionate fan bases, unfriendly winter weather, and players exhausted to their core after playing the most grueling sport for five straight months.  But at the end of the day, you have two teams full of smiles, high-fives, Gatorade showers, and countless “Is this really happening?” expressions on player’s faces.  It’s only the next day when you wake up and realize you have 13 grueling and anxiety-ridden days until the actual Super Bowl is played – just enough time for the unnecessary glorified publicity stunts witch hunts.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3½)

Sunday, January 24, 3:05pm EST, CBS.

            We think we know everything about Brady-Manning XVII, but if you look more closely at the recent history of this celebrated matchup, it becomes clear that the past doesn’t tell us a whole lot.  For example, most of the talking heads this week have mentioned how Tom Brady is 11-5 lifetime (including the playoffs) against Peyton Manning.  True enough, but because Brady won the first six matchups, that statistic is misleading; since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, Manning actually leads the series 6-5 and is 2-0 in playoff games. 

            Even the most recent Broncos-Patriots matchups are difficult to put into perspective for this week.  Everyone remembers the November 29 hatchet job by the refs hard-fought victory by the Broncos, but let’s not forget that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did not play for the Patriots, while Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski suffered game-ending injuries prior to New England blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead.  It’s also worth remembering that Denver’s comeback was engineered not by Manning, but by Brock Osweiler.

            And then there’s the 2013 AFC Championship game played two years ago, when Manning was coming off the greatest statistical season in NFL history and instead of a healthy Gronkowski, Brady had Austin Collie. The Broncos only scored 26 points, but it was one of the worst defensive performances I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick-coached team.  Manning was unstoppable that day, going 32/43 for 400 yards, and the Broncos scored on six of their eight possessions (they punted on their first, they kneeled the ball on their last). 

            The 26 points in that game were lucky – Denver couldn’t punch the ball in the red zone, and was forced to settle for field goals.  This time around, the Broncos scoring 26 points will also be a triumph of luck, but for the Denver offense, not New England’s defense.  Denver’s offense looked predictably abysmal last week against Pittsburgh, with receivers dropping wide open passes, Manning lofting throws over receivers’ heads, and the team proving to be utterly worthless on third down conversions (3 for 15).  True, they did not turn the ball over as many people suspected they would, but needed a late-game fumble by a 4^th-string runningback no one had ever heard of in order to take back the lead and eventually put the game away.  Kind of like how back in November, they needed a late-game fumble by a punt returner no one had ever heard of (and no one has heard of since).

            The Broncos thrive on opposing teams’ mistakes.  Including last week, Denver is now 12-1 in games where they force at least one takeaway.  They’re also 13-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer, and 9-2 in games allowing 230 passing yards or less.  Now let’s consider New England: They led the league in fewest giveaways (14), they scored at least 24 points in all but three of their games (and every game that Julian Edelman was in the lineup), and Brady threw for 230+ yards in 15 of his 17 games.  In other words, New England’s offense capitalizes on the very things the Denver defense prides itself on.         

            Of course, many have asked the question of how New England plans on mounting any semblance of a ground game against the Denver defense.  Curiously, the Broncos’ two best games against the run (Week 14 vs. Oakland and Week 15 at Pittsburgh) were both losses, but because the Broncos aren’t the Colts, New England will probably not run the ball much this week anyway.  But running the ball isn’t really a priority; in games where the Patriots throw for over 270 yards, they are 10-1.  Conversely, when the Broncos throw for over 270 yards, they are a modest 5-3.

            The 26 points stat is a good one because I don’t really believe the Broncos can score that many points – at least, not with Peyton Manning at the helm and not with a healthy Patriots’ defense.  To be sure, there are a lot of unpleasant things for Patriots fans about the prospect of playing in Denver: Namely, Brady’s lifetime record there (2-6); the fact the only quarterbacks New England has defeated in Denver were Tim Tebow and Danny Kanell; the weather forecast (mildly overcast and upper-40s, as opposed to the 30 degree snowstorm conditions in Foxboro); Manning’s record in AFC championship games since 2005 (3-0); and the fact that no fourth quarter lead will be safe as a result of our inability to run the ball.

            But as a Patriots fan, I do not worry about the one thing that I’ve always worried about in the storied Brady-Manning rivalry, which is Peyton systematically tearing up our defense.  Want an absurd stat?  Two years removed from throwing 55 touchdowns in a single season, Peyton Manning has thrown a grand total of one touchdown in Denver all season, including last week.  Granted, he missed seven games due to “injury,” but one touchdown??  Brady had three touchdowns in Denver minus his top two wide receivers.  As per usual, Manning is blessed with two of the top receivers in the league (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), but both were bottled in in the November 29 game until they each caught 35+ yard passes in the game’s final 2:30.  The recipe for Denver is simple: Rely as little as possible on Manning’s throwing arm.  Run the ball down New England’s throat.  Pick up third-and-shorts and score touchdowns rather than field goals.  Limit Edelman and Gronkowski, while putting constant pressure on Brady.  Follow the advice of Cam Newton last week and start running the clock down in the first quarter.

            Do I believe the Broncos can do those things?  Maybe.  I’ve been surprised all year how Denver is able to pull victories out of their ass while looking completely inept.  But even when everything fell the Broncos’ way on November 29 (the blown lead, the turnovers, the officiating, the in-game injuries, and the fact that it was Osweiler at QB rather than Manning), the Patriots still ended up scoring 24 points and forcing overtime (while never touching the ball in OT).  If you’re taking Denver in this game, you believe that their man-on-man, blitzing defense can hold Brady and company under 20 points, which no team has done all year with Edelman in the lineup.  You also believe that Peyton Manning can throw touchdowns (which he hasn’t done) and that the ground game will repeat its performance on November 29 (except this time against a healthy Dont’a Hightower).  In other words, you hope for miracles, which Denver has admittedly had plenty of in 2015.  But at some point, luck runs out and the better team takes care of business.

Prediction: New England 27, Denver 17

Playoff Doppelganger: 2004 AFC Championship, New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.  The Steelers had a great defense but problems at QB (a shaky rookie rather than a grizzled veteran who requires HGH nothing more than leadership and faith).  The defending champion Pats had gone into Pittsburgh earlier in the year lost badly; this was their revenge game.  It’s difficult to expect the one-sidedness that that game quickly turned into, but going into the game, there were few people that ever truly doubted the result. 

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3½)

Sunday, January 24, 6:40pm EST, Fox.

            See if you can answer this simple question.  Last week, Quarterback A went 25 of 41 for 349 yards and three touchdowns.  Quarterback B finished 16 for 22 for 161 yards, one touchdown, and carried the ball 11 times for three yards.  So which quarterback had the better week?

            Of course, by this point you should know that Quarterback A is Carson Palmer and Quarterback B is Cam Newton, and it’s not really a fair question since both teams won their games and both offenses are designed differently (as well as the convenient omission that Quarterback A threw two bad interceptions).  But hopefully, the point is clear that many football statistics are deceptive.  For example, anyone who watched both quarterbacks last week would know that Cam looked considerably better, calmer, and more confident than Palmer.  Maybe it’s easier to play that way when you’re spotted a 31-point lead. 

            In any event, it’s now officially time to start worrying about Carson Palmer’s finger, no matter what the team and its former superstars are saying about the extent of his injury.  Or to put it another way: Given how bad several of his passes were last week, would it be any real consolation to Arizona fans if they found out Palmer wasn’t injured?  Then he’s just jittery, unproven, and bad at making decisions in crunch time – and all this against a mediocre Green Bay secondary at home.  More worrisome statistics from last week’s game: Between 6:48 in the first quarter (when Palmer threw a touchdown to Michael Floyd) and 3:44 of the fourth quarter (Floyd’s second receiving TD), Arizona mustered a grand total of 3 points, along with two punts and two interceptions.  David Johnson was ineffective on the ground all game (15 carries for 35 yards), and even though the Packers were extra sinful and needed two Hail Marys to force overtime, the Cardinals’ secondary still gave up 200 combined receiving yards to the uber-Caucasian combination of Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis.

            If you’re a Cardinals fan, you try your darndest to invoke the magic of the 2008 team (God, puppies, and Pakistan) and remember that the best receiver on the field this Sunday will be Larry Legend who, in his eight postseason games, has amassed an unreal 53 receptions for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns.  You can also still revel in the fact that in his four postseason games, Cam Newton still hasn’t had “that” game – you know, the one where he throws for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 50 yards on the ground for an overtime win.  Actually, maybe that’s a bad omen if you’re rooting for Arizona this weekend.  But in any event, Carolina’s two playoff victories under Cam (one of which came last year against the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals) have required very little from their quarterback.  And in case you forgot, the Cardinals still have an outstanding defense, while the Panthers still have Ted Ginn, Philly Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery.

            But I like Carolina in this game for reasons more than just Arizona’s shortcomings last week.  I believe Carolina and Seattle were the two best teams heading into last weekend, and we all saw the damage the Panthers are capable of reeking when putting their foot on the gas pedal.  Many thought Riverboat Ron was not deserving of his nickname last week when he opted to start running down the clock in the first quarter, but technically, such a conservative strategy was still pretty risky knowing the Seahawks’ flair for second-half comebacks (in case you don’t believe me, just ask Mike McCarthy).  Cam occasionally looked frustrated at being bottled up, but the Panthers looked comfortable taking care of business on third down and did indeed rush for 144 yards against the vaunted Seattle defense.  Arizona and Seattle are similar in some areas (such as lack of consistent running game and excellence at home), but different in a few crucial ones: The Seahawks have a mobile, duel-threat quarterback known for his insane improvisation; the Seahawks have had the league’s best defense the past four years; and they have been to the Super Bowl the last two.  In other words, Arizona feels a lot less intimidating than Seattle.

            While I’m weary of statistics, a few do jump out.  One is that in its first ten games, Arizona scored 30+ points on seven occasions.  In the seven games after that, Arizona has only scored 30+ points twice.  The Cardinals will have to score points in order to keep up with the Panthers, who led the league in offense and like the Patriots, scored 27 points or more in all but three games.  The Panthers obviously thrive off the run, but in the three games where Arizona has given up 140 yards or more on the ground, they are 0-3.  Carolina also led the league in most takeaways; Arizona finished 17^th in the league in giveaways.  Arizona is 10-0 in games where they rushed for more than 115 yards; Carolina only permitted four such games, all of which ended up being Panthers victories.

            Bruce Arians is a great coach and Larry Legend is a great receiver, but the Panthers are the league’s most complete team.  Last week eliminated any doubts about their weak schedule, Cam’s playoff credentials, or taking on proven opponents in big games.  Like I said earlier, because last week’s game was such a blowout early, we only saw a fraction of what they are truly capable of.  Cam Newton being held to three rushing yards feels about as unlikely as Carson Palmer pulling a Kurt Warner (with Newton simultaneously combusting into Jake Delhomme). 

Prediction: Carolina 30, Arizona 13

           

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 NFC Championship, Chicago 39, New Orleans 14.  Cam is certainly better than Rex Grossman, but the Bears had the league’s most dominant defense and a bruising, effective running game.  They controlled the clock, wreaked havoc on the Saints’ offensive line, and took care of business one week after eliminating the defending NFC champion Seahawks.  On a side note, this is the last NFC Championship Game that was decided by more than 7 points.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Looking forward to a Super Bowl 38 rematch as much as I am? Let me know below! 

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Division Round

            If the Seahawks win on a missed chip-shot field goal . . .

            And if the Steelers win because of horrible officiating . . .

            And if Aaron Rodgers and Andy Reid make you feel stupid for betting against them . . .

            And if the Bengals, Vikings, Redskins, and Texans all lost in horrible fashion . . .

            That can only mean one thing: It’s the NFL playoffs!  Of the remaining eight quarterbacks, one has never won a playoff game, two have never made it to a Super Bowl, and the other five share a combined nine championships.  I wonder if that information will play any significant role in which teams I predict to win this week.  It sure as hell didn’t last week, when I took A.J. McCarron and Kirk Cousins, and they each broke my heart.  But hey, when you play with matches, you tend to get burned – kind of like how if you send your linebackers coach on to the field to incite the opposing team in order to draw a late-game penalty, you get condemned by league officials.  Or if you purchased illegal HGH supplements and had them shipped to your house under your wife’s name, you get publicly criticized.  Or if you are found not guilty of deflating footballs, you still get unfairly ostracized by the media.  Yep, it’s the NFL playoffs and I am in a bitter mood!

Kansas City at New England (-5½)

Saturday, January 16, 4:35pm EST, CBS.

            In the first half of the 2015 season, the Patriots were the 2014 version of themselves (unstoppable on offense, annihilating teams every week, playing angry, disciplined, mistake-free football).  During the second half, however, the Patriots were the 2013 version of themselves (ridden with injuries at every conceivable position, eager to run the clock to get out of games without suffering further injuries, no consistent running game to speak of).  So heading into this week, it is more than understandable to ask the question: Which team are they?  The 2013 team, which limped into the playoffs without its biggest weapons and subsequently lost in Denver, or the 2014 Super Bowl championship team?

            For the moment, let’s stick to what we know.  The Patriots have historically dominated the divisional round in the Brady/Belichick era, winning eight out of a possible nine home games.  The Chiefs are coming off their first playoff victory in two decades over a team that should have never made the playoffs to begin with.  The Patriots are expected to start several of their biggest players who have been sidelined due to injury (including Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Devin McCourty).  The Chiefs have some injury question marks, none bigger than Jeremy Maclin and Justin Houston.

            But then there are the things that make me nervous as a biased Patriots fan.  One is that Kansas City has won 11 straight games; we had a similar streak in 2003, and when you win that many games, you panic less, come together as a team more, and eliminate the kind of intimation Bill Belichick teams typically thrive upon.  Conversely, the Pats finished the season 2-4.  Of course, we were banged up and perhaps mucking around to avoid getting the one seed for some unknown reason (kind of like how we inexplicably kicked off to the Jets to start OT a few weeks ago).  No one ever said being a Patriots fan wasn’t interesting.

            Another scary element looming in the minds of Pats fans is the last time we played the Chiefs – you know, when Trent Dilfer called Tom Brady old and said we would have to start playing Jimmy G.  But should we put a lot of stock in that game?  At the same time, I wrote last week that many of the Chiefs’ wins during their current streak are unimpressive (last week was a beautiful illustration of that), and as I said above, at least a few of the Pats’ late-season losses were due to trying to avoid the Steelers injuries.

            New England loses when three things happen: When Tom Brady is pressured and sacked; when they cannot run the ball (2-3 in games of 70 or fewer yards); and when they score under 27 points (1-3 in such games this season).  Essentially, we can chalk those three factors to one simple strategy: The Chiefs’ defensive line has to play outstanding.  When Tom Brady is given time in the pocket, as the Ravens and Seahawks crucially permitted him last season, the Patriots are virtually impossible to beat, and that’s not even considering when Edelman and Gronkowski playing at their highest levels.  The Chiefs sacked Brian Hoyer three times last week, and forced four interceptions; but I think it’s safe to say that Hoyer is not Tom Brady.

            It is worth noting, however, that Brady has been sacked 38 times this season – the only time he had more sacks was in 2013.  Then there’s his high ankle sprain suffered in the season finale against Miami.  The Patriots notoriously underplay the extent of their injuries, but Brady was noticeably limping in that game.  The offensive line has been in shambles since November, and with no LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis, the Pats will have to rely on the legs of (gulp) Steven Jackson and Brandon Boldin.  Sure, we didn’t exactly light the running game on fire last year against the Ravens or Seahawks, but at least we could fake the run or call for play-action.  Not this week (or this postseason, for that matter.)

            At this point, you may be thinking, “OK, so the Chiefs defense, which specializes in stuffing the ground game and pressuring the QB, may have the advantage.  But they still cannot score points.”  Well, that deserves a more careful look.  The four quarterbacks who managed to beat New England this year were Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill (suddenly the name “Alex Smith” doesn’t seem all that bad).  Two of those losses came when the Pats blew two-touchdown leads; in the other two we gave up 300 yards through the air, 5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.  Want more?  This season, the Pats defense only had five games with multiple takeaways.  Compare that with nine such games each in 2014 and 2013.  Including last week, the Chiefs have nine games where the offense scored 26+ points, and seven of those games were on the road. The Pats were 3-3 in games giving up 26+ points.

            The Chiefs aren’t exactly an electric offense, but Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and even Alex Smith are all better running options than the Pats’ best runningback.  They doubled the Patriots turnover ratio (+14 compared to +7) and played a much tougher schedule (Kansas City only lost one AFC road game all season).  There’s no combination quite like Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but Andy Reid and Alex Smith each have considerable playoff experience too. The Patriots come into the game with more off-field drama and higher expectations; having thrilled an already ecstatic Kansas City fan base, the Chiefs should come into the game feeling like they are playing with house money.

            It may be shocking to say, but here goes nothing: I think I have to pick against my beloved team.  I can’t help but notice the eerie parallels between this Chiefs teams and the other teams we’ve blown playoff games to (specifically, the Mark Sanchez-led Jets and the Ravens): An offense prioritizing ball control, a brutal defensive line, prior success against the Patriots, and a fearless coaching staff.  The 11-game winning streak may give the Chiefs too much confidence, but watching them last week (in an admittedly one-sided game), there wasn’t any discernable sense of cockiness or hubris.  The best-case scenario for the Patriots is, like they’ve done so many times before, Tom Brady shuts up all the doubters, they build a quick 14-0 lead, and the environment of Gillette Stadium in January intimidates the opponent into submission.  The problem is, sadly, I believe the Patriots really tried to win many of those games they ultimately lost down the stretch, while the Chiefs have played the last three months unafraid of anyone or anything. 

Prediction: Kansas City 24, New England 17

Playoff doppelganger: 2010 AFC Divisional Round, NY Jets 28, New England 21.  Because of course.  This game took me many years to recover from, but when I finally overcame it, the feeling was so sweet.  Serenity now, serenity now.

           

Green Bay at Arizona (-7)

Saturday, January 16, 8:15pm EST, NBC.

            The writing was on the wall going into last Sunday, when everyone was picking Washington over Green Bay.  It’s never good when you are the trendy, popular pick; just ask Mark Helfrich.  Meanwhile, everyone did not relax and forgot that they were picking Kirk Cousins over the Super Bowl champion, two-time league MVP, and Mr. Olivia Munn.

            It’s fair to say that the Packers resemble the Patriots in how erratic and bipolar they’ve looked down the stretch, due in large part to injuries.  Since October, they’ve won just four games – against Minnesota, Dallas, Oakland, and the Hail Mary in Detroit – and when you add in last week, the Packers’ resume doesn’t look that outstanding.  I mean, this is the same team that lost to Denver, Carolina, and Arizona by a combined score of 104 to 47.  But like the Patriots, maybe Green Bay’s M.O. has been to rest everyone and don’t worry about giving maximal effort until the postseason.  Hell, that always seems to work for Eli Manning.

            It’s also possible that the Redskins were a fraudulent team that won nine games in a horrific division, but any time a team can win by 17 points on the road – especially after overcoming an early deficit of 11 points – the result is impressive and merits consideration.  Obviously, the Cardinals are a much more difficult challenge for Green Bay, particularly because they beat the Packers by 30 on December 27.  But if you accept the logic that Green Bay wasn’t playing at full strength or effort for much of the season, you may have to throw out much of what that game appeared to demonstrate.

            And what did that game show?  Green Bay’s offensive line was awful, giving up an unbelievable eight sacks, while Corey Redding and Jerraud Powers each had fumble returns for touchdowns.  Arizona’s secondary was even more outstanding, limiting Rodgers to 151 yards and only one touchdown.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense did what it has done all year – create big passing plays down the field, enable a consistent and diverse running game (David Johnson, Andre Ellington, and Kerwynn Williams each had at least seven carries for 39 yards), and limit turnovers. 

            At 36 years old, Carson Palmer is coming off the best statistical season of his career, throwing for over 4,600 yards, 35 touchdowns, and most importantly, not getting injured.  That critical caveat is what worries me most about Palmer.  In his career, he has missed 32 games due to injury.  Injuries have also sidelined Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Johnson, both of which are huge blows to this team.  In spite of this, Arizona looked great down the stretch – that is, until two weeks ago when the Seahawks demolished the Cardinals at home (in a game in which every probability seemed to be pointing toward Palmer taking a Michael Bennett hit and being sidelined for the playoffs; instead, that hit was made by N’Damukong Suh on Tom Brady). Like the Patriots and the Packers, that late-season loss was alarming; but was it a meaningless game in which starters were rested, or does Arizona really have some gaping holes to fix?

            In many respects, the Cardinals may have had the most balanced and complete team in the league in 2015, but besides the injury worries, one thing also strikes me about them: Outside of that Packers victory, they don’t have too many impressive wins on their resume.  True, they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and the next week took care of business at home against the Bengals – but look at the rest of the teams they beat: New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco (twice), Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota and Philadelphia. No Carolina, no Denver or New England, and their non-Seahawk losses were to the Steelers and Rams.  You can’t control what schedule you get, but Arizona’s is a little suspect.

            Two other observations about the Cardinals’ losses this year: In each of the three games, they gave up over 120 yards on the ground and could not force a turnover (conversely, they had three giveaways in each game).  Last week, the Packers had 141 yards rushing and only turned the ball over once.  Green Bay had eight games where they didn’t turn the ball over at all, while Arizona had eight games with multiple giveaways.

            If there was any lesson learned last weekend, it was: Don’t discount the experienced playoff QB.  Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger beat Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, and A.J. McCarron.  I think Palmer is in a class just above those last four guys, but he’s still 0 for 1 in playoff games (I don’t count the Steelers debacle in 2006), while Rodgers just won his fourth road playoff game.  Including last week, five of the six games where the Packers scored 29 or more points came on the road.  Outside of Sam Shields and Quinten Rollins, the Packers’ defense is the healthiest it has been all season, which is probably the same thing you can say about the Green Bay running game.  David Johnson has been great for the Cardinals, but he is still a rookie, while players like John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Deone Bucannon, and Markus Golden are still in their first couple years as pros.  Meanwhile, everyone is picking against Green Bay once again, which is exactly the way Aaron Rodgers likes it.  It’s a tough call but in this circumstance, I say experience means something.

Prediction: Green Bay 34, Arizona 27

Playoff doppelganger: 2008 NFC Divisional Round, Arizona 33, Carolina 13. Cardinals fans will certainly remember this one: Stumbling into the playoffs, with no one giving them any chance, with no running game or consistency to speak of, the wily veteran Kurt Warner defied all the odds and showed why experience and a strong arm are two of the most important commodities to have in a postseason run.  Like the 2015 Cardinals, the 2008 Panthers were coming off the franchise’s best season and were the critical darlings of many prognosticators.  But then Jake Delhomme became Jake Delhomme and turned the ball over 13450924332 times.  I bet he still wishes he could have gotten bailed out in the first quarter by Kimo von Oelhoffen.

           

Seattle at Carolina (-3)

Sunday, January 17, 1:05pm EST, Fox.

            It is very possible that these are the two best teams in the NFL at the moment.  One is the two-time defending conference champion, the other became the sixth team in NFL history to finish 15-1 and has a QB who is the shoo-in for league MVP.  After four consecutive Seahawks victories over the Panthers (by an average of just under 7 points) Carolina finally took down Seattle this season in Week 6, with Cam Newton connecting on the game-winning touchdown to Greg Olsen.  That felt like a seminal and tide-changing moment in Carolina Panthers franchise history – as well as the most frustrating and bitter moment in the Seahawks season.

            I believe the Panthers were the best team in football in 2015.  You can find holes here and there; they did it without Kelvin Benjamin, relied perhaps too heavily on the likes of Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess, and had the luxury of playing ten games against the NFC South and AFC South.  They haven’t played a team with a winning record since November 8, and had several games this year (including vs. Indianapolis, Green Bay, New Orleans, and the Giants) where they blew double-digit leads, but hung on to win.  Sometimes it wasn’t pretty.  Often times it wasn’t overly impressive on the field.  But finishing 15-1, leading the league in scoring offense, rushing offense, and takeaways, and having the league’s best player score 45 touchdowns is undeniably impressive.

            The Seahawks weren’t exactly pretty either last week, relying on a bad offensive play, a bad defensive play, and a reprehensible special teams play by their opponent to win by a single point.  Has there ever been a luckier team in NFL history than the Seahawks?  I don’t deny that they’re immensely talented on both sides of the ball, but at this point, how can anyone be surprised anymore when these types of antics occur (Bill Barnwell had a perfect tweet about this).  As a Seahawks hater, I knew that a 27-yard chip shot was too good to be true.  I knew that Peterson would fumble at a critical time (ask Todd if you don’t believe me), just like I knew they would recover that stupid onside kick last year, just like I knew the refs would uphold the Fail Mary. I’m not Nostradamus.  I’m a Seahawks hater.

            In many respects, Carolina is the most desirable opponent for the Seahawks.  Without that Newton-to-Olsen touchdown, Seattle would be 5-0 against Carolina in the Russell Wilson era (never mind that each game was close, that’s just always how Seattle plays).  Last week was the eighth time the Seahawks have faced off against a playoff team this season.  This week will be the sixth time they’ve faced a playoff team on the road.  They get back a healthy Marshawn Lynch, a healthy Luke Willson, and the weather will not be below zero.  In his five games against the Seahawks, Cam Newton has thrown four touchdowns, five interceptions, has never rushed for over 42 yards, and has only completed 56 percent of his passes.  Against the Panthers, Russell Wilson has thrown for seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and has completed over 68 percent of his passes.

            Look, it’s not rocket science here.  Seattle had the tougher schedule; they have the better quarterback, the better coach, more playoff experience, resentment stemming the game earlier this season, and they have their best offensive player in the lineup once again.  Carolina played weak teams all year, have only one playoff win in Cam’s career (vs. Ryan Lindley), will be missing one of its premier defenders (Charles Tillman), questionable receivers, and they give up leads.  Cam’s stats look great, but he also had a completion rate under 60 percent and only had four games where he averaged more than five yards per rush attempt.  Carolina comes in as the favorite because they won 15 games, but shared only two common opponents with Seattle: Dallas and Green Bay.  The Panthers haven’t advanced past the divisional round since 2005.

            If you take the Panthers, you are choosing to believe that Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and Jerricho Cotchery can beat Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas.  You’re choosing to believe that the team with the easiest schedule in the league – a team that struggled in December games against the Saints, Giants, and Falcons – can beat a team that has surrendered three offensive touchdowns in its last six games.  You’re choosing to take the #1 offense over the #1 defense in a game where the latter hasn’t lost in the playoffs to an NFC opponent in three years.  You’re choosing to take the quarterback that has been historically stifled over the quarterback that does this.  I think it’s a no-brainer.  Minnesota had its chance last week.  That’s the closest it is going to get.

           

Prediction: Seattle 37, Carolina 17

Playoff doppelganger: 2010 NFC Divisional Round, Green Bay 48, Atlanta 21.  The Falcons came into the game as the trendy #1 seed in the NFC, except they had played a fraudulent schedule with the exception of a three-point regular season win over the Packers.  That was enough to rile Aaron Rodgers up, and he torched the Falcons much-vaunted defense for 366 yards and four total touchdowns.  In the cases of both the Packers and the Seahawks, not having a bye may actually help preserve momentum and focus.

Pittsburgh at Denver (-7)
Sunday, January 17, 4:40pm EST, CBS.

            Ten years ago, Ben Roethlisberger and the six-seeded Steelers marched confidently on the road in the divisional round and beat top-seeded Peyton Manning (due in large part to the unheralded defensive playmaking of Big Ben). Four years ago, the Steelers marched confidently into Denver in the divisional round and were 7½-point favorites over Tim Tebow, until this happened.  Of course, Manning didn’t play for the Broncos in 2006, nor was he on the field in 2011, but hopefully you get the idea: This matchup, in whatever form it has taken, has given us some of the more remarkable and improbable results the past decade.

            There are a lot of unknowns in this matchup, but there are a few things we know for sure.  One is that the 2015 Broncos were a very fortunate team.  They were all but done in Kansas City until Jeremy Hill Jamaal Charles was given the ball late; they trailed the Patriots by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter until the refs suddenly remembered who they were rooting for and commenced calling excessive penalties on Rob Gronkowski; they survived overtime contests against the Browns and Bengals, and somehow beat San Diego in spite of five giveaways.  Their quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, a 76.3 QB rating, and 12 wins.  They had no major injuries to speak of all season (outside of Manning’s, which may have given him two months of significant rest) and four of their five wins over playoff teams came at home (the only win was the infamous Chiefs game at Arrowhead).

            We also know that after last week, the Steelers are considerably banged up, with likely game-time decisions for DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown, as well as a beat-up Roethlisberger, but still . . . Denver is a seven-point favorite?  Am I not understanding something here?  The Broncos beat only four teams all season by a touchdown or more, while four of the Steelers’ five losses with Roethlisberger under center were by seven points or fewer.  Four weeks ago, on December 20, the Broncos not only lost to the Steelers, but gave up the most points in any game they played all season (34).  And oh yeah, Denver’s starting quarterback has lost six times in the divisional round, and has gone one-and-done in the playoffs a record nine times.

            It’s certainly a considerable advantage for the Broncos if Williams and Brown cannot play.  Denver’s unequivocal strength is its top-rated defense, which went 11-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer.  They only gave up one 300-yard passer all season (you guessed it) and in the December 20 game, Williams was a virtual non-factor, rushing 14 times for only 26 yards (Emmanuel Sanders nearly outgained him on the ground on one carry).  The Broncos scored 27 points in the game’s first 28 minutes, before Osweiler and company were shut out in the second half.  I watched that game and neither team looked perfect, with each throwing pivotal interceptions in the game’s final five minutes.  I will say that I cannot imagine Denver players being too thrilled with the way they finished that game.

            The Sheriff Manning will of course be an important factor, but I feel like the Broncos are the kind of team that can survive a 120-yard, 2-interception performance (oddly enough, I feel that way about the Steelers too).  And the question must be asked: If Manning is in the midst of another divisional round dud, why wouldn’t Gary Kubiak pull the trigger and put Osweiler in?  Denver went 8-1 in games where they rushed for 100+ yards (again, you can guess where their one loss came).  Pittsburgh’s defense has played quietly well against the run all season, and if you take away the one long gain surrendered to Jeremy Hill, the Bengals only ran 23 times for 53 yards last week.  But if the Steelers’ run defense has been quiet, the Broncos’ run defense has been booming, allowing only one 100-yard rusher all season (this time it might not be who you guessed).

            If you’re picking the Steelers in this game, you believe that Manning’s two months of rest will have little impact on his well-documented playoff demons.  You believe that Pittsburgh can score 24 points against anyone, at any location, and you believe that Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jordan Todman, and Martavis Bryant can make up for the losses to Williams and Brown (who may still play anyway).  You believe that Roethlisberger has won more Super Bowls than Manning for a reason, and you know that the only thing fluky about the December 20 game was how bad the Steelers defense played against Brock Osweiler in the first half.

            Those are not necessarily bad points to make, but for me, they do not add up to enough confidence to realistically take the Steelers in this game.  If you remember correctly, Pittsburgh just nearly blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead to A.J. McCarron, and was bailed out by extremely fortunate penalties (and a few horrendous no-calls). This season, the Steelers played poorly on the road in New England, Kansas City, Seattle, and Baltimore, and with the exception of Kansas City, those games were played with healthy lineups intact.  Pittsburgh has turned the ball over two or more times in 10 of its past 11 games; Denver is 11-1 in games where they forced one takeaway.  Toussaint and Todman played well last week, but that was by far the most relevant either runningback has been in a game the past two seasons (you have to believe Cincinnati’s defensive scheme was more focused on eliminating Brown and Bryant). 

            We all know Peyton Manning isn’t necessarily Tom Brady when it comes to playoff football (nor is Brock Oswiler).  But I also know what network the game is on, and I talked about talking about which legendary announcing pair will be talking about how Peyton Manning just had the most noble and distinguished season of his amazing career (anything else is heresy).  Picking against The Sheriff is a grievous violation of taste and ethics that may be punishable by being exiled to Cincinnati and its thuggish fans.

Prediction: Denver 19, Pittsburgh 16.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 20, NY Jets 17 (OT).  Maybe this comparison is a cop-out since the 2015 Broncos are basically the same fraudulent team as the 2004 Steelers, but for no other reason, the two teams represent the pinnacle of winning games in truly lucky fashion.  The Jets had a +2 turnover margin in the game, and could have sealed victory on two separate occasions, but perhaps inevitably, Doug Brien pulled a Blair Walsh both times. I hated that game, and I hate the two teams involved in this matchup.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Write below!

2014 at Halftime: The NFL Mid-Season Report and Awards

 

           Remember the good ole days when the biggest offseason storylines from the NFL were limited to treatment of concussions and long-term effects of brain injuries?  With the unresolved sagas of Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Breaking Bad-style de-evolution of Roger Goodell into a Vince McMahon-like league villain, it’s safe to say those days are gone.  There has been, however, some good football to come out of the 2014 season at its mid-point – it just hasn’t involved any of the following: Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jay Cutler, Thursday Night Football, professional football in Washington D.C. and Oakland, London games played at 6:00am PST, and ghosts of Bill Gramatica.

Biggest Surprise: There are a few viable candidates here.  The Cleveland Browns are somehow 5-3 despite 0 yards being gained from Johnny Football, the non-reinstatement of their best receiver, injuries to their second-best pass catcher (Jordan Cameron), playing in a super-competitive division where everyone is above .500, and having a bottom-three rush defense.  And yet Cleveland has victories over New Orleans and Pittsburgh, along with two last-second losses to the Ravens and Steelers.  Their lone bad performance all season came against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (go figure).  And perhaps most amazingly of all, Mike Pettine has not even been fired yet!

            You could also go with the Buffalo Bills (5-3 in spite of a bad draft, major injuries on offense and defense, and Kyle Orton as QB) or the Miami Dolphins (also 5-3 with dominant victories over New England, Chicago and San Diego, with Ryan Tannehill turning into a white Michael Vick).  Or you could go with DeMarco Murray, a guy who suffered through severe sprained ankle, foot and MCL injuries the last three seasons before reaching a career high in rushing yards for a season . . . through the first nine games of 2014.  He is on pace for 2,000 rushing and 440 receiving yards while taking the title of unquestionably the NFL’s best runningback. 

            But the winner here has to be the only team to have held Murray under 100 yards in a game, which is precisely what the 7-1 Arizona Cardinals did last week.  If you were to ask at the beginning of the season which NFC team would start out with the best record through eight games, I realistically would have picked eight other teams before the Cards (Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta).  It’s not as though the Cardinals are statistically blowing opponents away; the Cardinals rank dead last in pass yards allowed, 5^th worst in rushing offense, and have only outscored their opponents by a total of 36 points.  Hell, they’ve had to turn to the likes of Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, and Larry Foote to cement key wins.  They are winning games for two primary reasons: They don’t turn the ball over (six turnovers through eight games) and they know how to win close games.

            Of course on the flip side, you could make the case that moving forward the Cardinals still have to face the 49ers, Lions, Chiefs and two games against the defending champs.  They still have a 35-year-old quarterback who has never won a playoff game and an offense that has eclipsed 30 points only once.  But you could also point to how they have the best secondary in football with the fearsome combination of Cromartie-Peterson-Matthieu and how Deone Bucannon is a viable defensive rookie of the year candidate.  In a year when everything that could go wrong for Seattle and San Francisco has gone really wrong, Arizona has stepped in out of nowhere and played better than anyone could have expected (in its last 17 games, the Cardinals are an amazing 14-3).  I expect nothing less than this team to go on a 2008-like playoff run, and if that is the case, Arians seems like a shoo-in for Coach of the Year, while Palmer (11 TDs, 2 INTs, 99.3 QB rating) could be a front-runner (along with Arian Foster and Kyle Orton) for Comeback Player of the Year.

Biggest Disappointment: It’s hard to find an example of a disappointing team in the group of five AFC teams with losing records (Jets, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders).  I don’t think anyone expected New York to be 1-8 at this point but I also don’t think many people realistically estimated substantial growth from Geno Smith or considerable help from 34-year-old Michael Vick.  They’ve also played only one sub-.500 team all season – the Raiders – which accounted for their lone victory.  Their October16 loss to the Patriots on a short week – a loss eerily mirroring their questionably-officiated, game-winning FG victory from last year – was their 2014 season.  Meanwhile, I would argue that the Jaguars and Raiders are playing much better football than their record would suggest.

            That leads us to the NFC.  A cumulative record of 9-7 for the two best teams of 2013 (the Seahawks and 49ers) has to be considered a disappointment at some level, but both teams have suffered through throngs of injuries on both sides of the ball, along with a pair truly agonizing losses to the Rams.  If you had told Saints fans their team would be 4-4 at the break, you’d be met with some groans . . . but this would be amended after you told them that New Orleans is still the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South.  Atlanta and Carolina are certainly suffering through painful seasons after their successes in 2012 and 2013 respectively, but neither was exactly the Super Bowl favorite coming into 2014.

            Believe it or not, the only team that truly fits the bill for disappointment is the 3-5 Chicago Bears.  They are the very definition of an erratic and frustrating team: 0-3 at home, 3-2 on the road; blowout losses to the Dolphins and Packers, yet a truly impressive victory in San Francisco against the 49ers on national television; statistically outstanding seasons from Jay Cutler (17 TDs, 95.8 QB rating) and Matt Forte (1,000 total yards) but 9 fumbles by Cutler and only 3 rushing touchdowns for Forte.  Most beguiling of all, the Bears haven’t suffered any serious injuries outside of Peanut Tillman, meaning one of two things: Either (A) their starters really are just that bad, or (B) the team has lost focus due to turmoil in the locker room and lack of leadership on the parts of Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Marc Trestman. 

            For the second half of the season, the Bears do get treated to home games against the Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Saints and Lions, meaning they have ample room make up ground in the NFC North.  But there’s no way of predicting which team will show up on the field on any given day – the one that held the Falcons to under 300 yards of total offense or the team that gave up 21 points to the Patriots in a span of48 seconds.  Is it too late to call up Josh McCown again?

Team to watch in the Second Half: Once again, the disappointing first halves for the Seahawks and 49ers suggest that both teams are more than capable of righting the ship in time for playoff runs virtually everyone banked on going into the season.  Meanwhile, someone has to win the NFC East and while history would suggest that Eli Manning and the Giants can be the beneficiaries of injuries to Nick Foles and Tony Romo, New York has also lost three straight, has to fly to Seattle this weekend, and hasn’t defeated a team over .500.

            There is, however, a 2013 playoff team that no one is talking about because Brady-Manning-Luck have overshadowed the race in the AFC.  This team has victories over the Dolphins, Patriots, and Chargers, and close losses to the 49ers and Broncos.  So yes, while everyone in Jayhawk country spent the majority of the month of October rooting for their incredible baseball team (or rooting unsuccessfully against their odious governor), you could make the case that quietly the 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs are playing the best football in the NFL right now. They have found a legitimately frightening two-headed beast at runningback with the combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, while Alex Smith is completing over 67 percent of his passes – most of which are going into the arms of breakout tight end Travis Kelce (419 yards, 4 TDs).  On defense, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have remained healthy and fearsome, combining for 16 sacks, and the Chiefs defense has given up the fewest points in the AFC (138).

            The problem?  Kansas City has been absolutely incapable of creating turnovers.  Of the five (you read that correctly, five) takeaways they’ve forced through eight games, three came against one opponent (the Patriots, on that memorable Monday night stampeding). Due to the impressive ball control abilities of the offense, the lack of takeaways hasn’t received a lot of notice, but the upcoming return of Eric Berry (out of the lineup since Week Two) should help a secondary that gets stabs at Kyle Orton and Derek Carr twice . . . but also Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger.  I’m picking Kansas City here not so much because their schedule is favorable (which it is anyway) but because this is a legitimately talented team with playoff experience that is seriously going under the radar. We all now know what teams in KansasCity – along with their tremendous fans – are capable of.

Coach of the Year: Arians, for the reasons stated in the “Biggest Surprise” category.  But a close second would be Jim Caldwell, who has somehow turned the Lions into the best defense in football.  I don’t have complete faith in their 6-2 record, since two of those games were super-fluky wins over the Saints and Falcons, but Caldwell has done an amazing job of turning around a team that hasn’t had a top-ten defense since 1983.  All the more impressive is that defensive players haven’t revolted in wake of Ndamukong Suh’s lame-duck year.  I guess I just don’t understand how Caldwell is such a good coach – does he motivate his players through stern looks and unrelenting stares into empty space? 

Best Team: Come on.  This isn’t really all that tough, is it?  A month ago, the New England Patriots were sitting at 2-2.  They had two blowout conference losses, a home game against the Raiders they should have lost, and a borderline-unfair win against Matt Cassel and the Vikings the same week the Adrian Peterson scandal broke.  The beloved Belichick-Brady era seemed on its final ropes, as everyone had started predicting as long as five years ago.  “Trading Logan Mankins a week before the season was a terrible idea!” They chimed.  “No one can catch the ball other than Edelman and Gronk!” They proclaimed.  “They’re too old/slow/banged up/inexperienced/unmotivated/overmatched/untalented!” They insisted.

            It’s amazing to me that in year 14 of Brady-Belichick experiment people still don’t seem to realize that the Patriots feed off when the media criticizes them.  No way they can beat the Greatest Show on Turf in an indoors Super Bowl?  Not a problem.  No way they can recover from the penalties and repercussions of SpyGate?  No big deal.  No way they can win games after Brady goes down in the first quarter of Week One?  Nobody cares.  Take your pick of adversity and criticisms this team has faced: Losing Wes Welker and Randy Moss, the Aaron Hernandez saga, Gronkowski’s injuries, Brady’s age, bad officiating, bad drafting, 4^th-and-2, and the Manning Brothers (good times and bad). 

            And yet after that shellacking by the Chiefs, the media still insisted that the Patriots were done for.  Don’t get me wrong.  That Kansas City game was terrible.  But as awful as that game was for Tom and company (and the fans that had to watch it), New England has responded with precisely that much more intensity, anger, and outstanding play – and they have done so in spite of losing their best rusher (Stevan Ridley), their best tackler (Jerrod Mayo) and their best defensive lineman (Chandler Jones).  They put up 43 points on the Broncos and the Bengals; Tom went 150 passes without throwing an interception (the one he did throw last week was a tipped pass); and with Brandon Browner back in the lineup, the secondary is pretty clearly the best in the AFC.  And the losses of Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, and Logan Mankins?  Not exactly the first thing on Pats’ fans minds anymore . . .

            So here’s the real question: How far can this team really go?  We’ve heard all these glowing praises before, but the Pats always find ways to shoot themselves in the foot with injuries and inexplicably poor play in January.  They have an incredibly tough slate of games coming up (at Indianapolis, at Green Bay, at San Diego, home for Detroit and Miami; meanwhile, Denver gets Oakland twice).  They haven’t run the ball especially well without Ridley and we all know Gronk could have a fluke injury at any point (every game there’s at least one “hold-your-breath-for-dear-life” moment like this one).  Peyton Manning won’t forget last week any time soon.  But for the time being, I’d take this group against any other team in the league, and the tough schedule will help keep them disciplined in their quest for title #4.

MVP: This is a tough one.  Prior to the last few weeks, the obvious candidate was Murray, a guy who legitimately seemed unstoppable in the rare Adrian Peterson/Jamal Lewis-in-2003/Barry Sanders mode.  And of course Murray could still win it, but two things will almost certainly need to happen: He will need to break the 2,000 rushing yard mark and the Cowboys will need to make the playoffs. 

            Murray supporters will also need to root for more mediocre play from perennial MVP candidates like Brady, Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, but I think the real favorite here has to be Andrew Luck.  He’s on pace for 5,484 yards, which would pass Manning’s record breaking mark from last season.  He has accounted for at least two total touchdowns in every game this season, and hasn’t exactly been able to rely on the ground game of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw (even though the latter has played better than anyone expected).  If the NFL’s PR campaign wants to brand the league as guys who take the game seriously, have no off-the-field issues, and who are universally loved by seemingly everybody, then Luck is precisely the player they would want to bestow the league’s highest individual honor on.  And let’s be honest – this Colts team is hardly loaded with talent, and a total of zero people were seriously panicked after Indy’s 0-2 start or their defensive meltdown against the Steelers.  Luck just promotes that kind of confidence in this team.

            I write all this and yet (you’re going to hate me for this) my MVP vote goes to Rob Gronkowski.  Simply put, he is the most explosive offensive weapon in football.  You can’t put a linebacker on him because he’s too mobile, but you can’t put a safety on him because he’ll run him over.  You can’t protect against his run-blocking because he’s too dominant, and there’s no way you can guard against him with one-on-one coverage.  And then there are plays like these which he makes once or twice per game, which no one can possibly defend against.  In his five years in the league, no team has sufficiently figured out how to cover him, and if you don’t believe me, take a look at his career game log: 31 five-catch games, 15 100-yard games, and 35 games with a TD. 

            Gronkowski has been the best player in football in 2014 and this is true even considering how limited he was in the Pats’ first four games (he still managed three TDs).  With a healthy Gronkowski, the New England offense is historically great, and this isn’t even factoring in the receiving play of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen.  He has systematically redefined the position he plays – how many players can you say that about?

            So there’s my mid-season report and I’m still not wavering from the Super Bowl pick I made at the beginning of the season: 31-30 Patriots over Seahawks.  Comments?  Questions?  Not enough time spent talking about how great New England is playing?  Write them below!