Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Wild Card Round

            I do not claim to be a savant when it comes to predicting the NFL, but one thing is for sure: When it comes to Wild Card weekend, in the immortal words of the second-greatest Russell of all time, I am a golden god.  Last year at this time, I went 4-0 in my picks and way back in January 2014, I also went 4-0.  Of course, going 4-0 on picks for Wild Card weekend is probably the equivalent of going 4-0 against the AFC South like certain one seeds did this season, but undefeated is still undefeated.  The reason for my success?  Hard work, determination, and strong faith.  And copious illicit supplies of human growth hormone sent to me under my spouse’s name.  But since that is apparently a less serious offense than not deflating footballs, we can say in total confidence that the captain is back! 

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3½)

Saturday, January 9, 4:20pm EST, ABC/ESPN.

            Wild Card Weekend starts out with a bang – the uber-sexy matchup of Brian Hoyer versus Alex Smith!  These two teams share a surprising number of similarities: Both had atrocious starts to the season (the Texans started 2-5, the Chiefs 1-5) followed by substantially better finishes (the Texans 7-2, the Chiefs 10-0); both spent the majority of the season struggling to overcome season-ending injuries to star runningbacks; and both had quarterbacks with remarkably similar statistics (Hoyer threw for 2,606 yards, 19 TDs and 7 INTs, Smith threw for 3,496 yards, 20 TDs and 7 INTs).

            In addition, these two teams played each other in the first week of the season.  In that game, the Chiefs jumped out to a 27-6 lead before Houston benched Hoyer, put in Ryan Mallet, and scored 11 points in the game’s final five minutes to make the final score respectable (27-20).  Looking up that game, I couldn’t believe the final score was that close; it’s hard to overstate how thoroughly Kansas City completely dominated Houston for the majority of the contest.  After their first drive ended in a punt, the Chiefs scored on their next five drives, Hoyer and Mallett were sacked for a combined five times, and the Texans finished 3-of-14 on third down conversions.  As unlikely it seemed at the time that the two teams would rematch in the playoffs, it may have even been more unlikely that Alfred Blue and Charcandrick West would be the respective starters at runningback – let alone the most unlikely wrinkle at all, which is that the winner of this game may have a decent shot at beating Denver or an injury-decimated New England next week.

            For the Texans of course, it’s not really about the offensive firepower – it’s all about J.J. Watt, who willed himself to another compelling MVP campaign and made an otherwise pedestrian defensive units one of the league’s very best. Watt recorded multiple sacks in six games, and since November 1 (when they entered the week three games under .500), the Texans have given up 60 or more rushing yards to a single player only once (LeSean McCoy).  Also in that time span, they’ve held six of their nine opponents to ten points or below.  Sure, some of those games against the Titans and Jaguars weren’t overly impressive, but let’s not forget their out-of-nowhere Monday night win in Cincinnati against the previously unbeaten Bengals or their home victory against the Jets in which DeAndre Hopkins torched Revis Island for 118 yards and two touchdowns.  The Texans are 9-0 in games where they surrendered 20 points or fewer; in games of 21 or more points, they are 0-7.

            Hopkins and Watt both have transcendent abilities to take over games, but in terms of raw firepower, that is about it for Houston.  Alfred Blue is a mediocre runningback at best (3.8 YPC this season) and is one of the worst pass-catching backs I’ve ever seen.  Hoyer’s numbers, while solid, ignore the fact that he was technically only 5-4 in games he started (three of those wins came against the Titans and Jaguars).  A lot of the gaudy numbers between him and Hopkins came in garbage time, not only against the Chiefs in Week 1 but also the Falcons (Atlanta led 42-0, but the final score was 48-21) and Dolphins (Miami led 41-0, final score 44-26).  Ten of Houston’s games were against the AFC South and NFC South, and they had no impressive wins outside of the Bengals and Jets games.  Hoyer threw for 123 yards and an interception against Cincinnati, and did not play against New York.

            The Chiefs are similarly fraudulent in the sense that few of their wins were genuinely impressive; they beat the Broncos in Denver in the game where Peyton Manning threw approximately 8,467 interceptions and defeated a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team at Arrowhead Week 7.  It also happened to be the same game where Le’Veon Bell suffered his season-ending MCL injury.  Since Week 10, Kansas City’s victories have come against Oakland (twice), San Diego (twice), Buffalo, Baltimore and Cleveland.   This would appear to diminish the integrity of the Chiefs’ 10-game winning streak, but on the other hand, it’s still fairly remarkable that they got up for each game and didn’t lose a trap game.  Maybe it’s because they knew the Broncos were even more fraudulent and that the AFC West crown was always mathematically possible.

            Whatever the reason, the 10-game winning streak doesn’t really convince me of anything beyond the fact that Kansas City’s schedule happened to be frontloaded with its tough matchups (six of its first seven games came against playoff teams).  Does anyone else remember the 2009 Chargers or the 2008 Colts?  While the Chiefs will have a healthy Tamba Hali and Justin Houston in the lineup (and mostly likely Jeremy Maclin), something about this team still doesn’t feel quite right.  Is it the Andy Reid Stench?  Is it the fact that this team hasn’t won a playoff game since the (first) Clinton administration?  Is it the fact that the most memorable thing that happened to the Chiefs this year was this unspeakable play (VIEWER DISCRETION ADVISED)? 

            Picking the Chiefs in this game is undoubtedly a risky proposition, yet I cannot get that Week One game out of my head.  Sure, it was a somewhat fluky first half, but if history should repeat itself and one of these teams goes up 14-0 or 17-0, the game might as well be over. The team I project with a better chance of that occurring for is Kansas City.   Remember that stat about Houston allowing more than 21 points?  Well, the Chiefs are 9-2 in games above 21 points, and six of their eight highest-scoring games came on the road.  Kansas City’s defense has also blossomed this season, picking off 22 passes in 2015 (compared with only six interceptions in 2014).  Hopkins and Watt may be the two most talented players on the field this weekend, but Alex Smith and Andy Reid have considerably more experience than Hoyer and O’Brian.  And Houston fans need to come to grips with the fact that their playoff birth had considerably more to do with Andrew Luck’s torn abdominal muscle than anything they did on the field.  Against all odds, one of these teams will actually win this game.

Prediction: Kansas City 23, Houston 13

Playoff Doppelganger: 1993 NFC Wild Card, New York Giants 17, Minnesota 10.  Well Jeem, we were just talking about how great Peyton Manning is, and then we talked a little more about how he’s the greatest quarterback of all time, then we talked about Phil Simms’ final win of his career – a less-than-stellar victory over a Vikings team quarterbacked by Jim McMahon and Sean Salisbury (that’s right, Sean Salisbury).  Like the Chiefs, the Giants were a boring, vanilla team with an excellent but boring and vanilla defense.  They ran the ball a lot, never turned the ball over, and were coached by the ultimate Andy Reid of the 1980s and 1990s, Dan Reeves.  Neither of these teams was really going anywhere (the next week the Giants lost to the 49ers 44-3), and although I doubt Alex Smith will retire after the season, I would much rather see him in the CBS announcing booth next to Jim Nantz, talking about what a better announcer he is (or anyone would be) than Phil Simms.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2½)

Saturday, January 9, 8:15pm EST, CBS.

            Hmm, haven’t we seen this scenario before?  The dangerous six-seeded Steelers traveling to the vulnerable division champion Bengals, with Cincinnati’s star quarterback injured and unable to play?  Of course, Andy Dalton probably won’t be rolled to the ground in a vicious hit by Kimo Von Oelhoffen, but that’s probably because Dalton likely won’t be ready to start this Saturday period. 

            That begs the natural question, what are we supposed to think of A.J. McCarron?  Besides the fact that his girlfriend is still hot, it’s difficult to say.  He did throw for 280 yards in three quarters against the Steelers on December 13 (in a home game where Dalton really was injured in the first quarter and Cincinnati lost) and has looked serviceable in the three games since (2-1 overall, 4 TDs, no picks, over 62 percent completions in each of the three games).  In previous years, the thought of Andy Dalton missing a playoff game may have sounded potentially advantageous to long-suffering Bengals fans, but the truth is, Dalton was enjoying the best season of his career before his Week 14 injury.  Gone was the hesitancy, the indecisiveness, and the ability to only win divisional home games at 1pm Eastern (here’s the proof).  There’s a chance he may be able to return next week, which should hopefully give the Bengals extra motivation to come out strong.

            As competent as Dalton and McCarron have played, the key for Cincinnati is still the ground game; they were 9-1 in games where they rushed for over 100 yards, and 11-1 in games where they scored 24 or more points.  If the Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard can have success against the Steelers’ 21^st ranked defense, Cincinnati can control the flow of the game (as well as the clock).  However, Pittsburgh was substantially better against the run (ranking 5^th in the NFL) than they were against the pass (30^th), meaning Cincinnati will have to make some considerable A.J. (McCarron)-to-A.J. (Green) connections downfield. 

            If this game feels familiar to pessimistic Bengals fans, it should also feel familiar to pessimistic Steelers fans: Last year, Pittsburgh hosted a Wild Card game to a Ravens team they had also handled only weeks earlier, but Le’Veon Bell was unable to play due to a hyperextended knee.  They lost by 13.  Now Bell’s backup, DeAngelo Williams, will not play this weekend against a division opponent.  That is cause for concern, and if you don’t believe me, look at their loss against the Ravens two weeks ago: Big Ben forced passes while under pressure and even in spite of Williams having a good day, the turnovers wreaked havoc on Pittsburgh.  Roethlisberger had 16 interceptions in 12 games this year, and the Steelers were 1-4 and all six of the games where Pittsburgh had a negative turnover differential resulted in losses.

            Other bad signs for Pittsburgh: They were 4-4 on the road this year, with the four victories coming against St. Louis (by 6), San Diego (by 4), Cincinnati (without Dalton), and last week at Cleveland.  Also, they gave up 27 points in one half to Brock Osweiler, a 95 QB rating to Ryan Mallett, four touchdown passes to Derek Carr, and 385 total yards or more surrendered in eight of its games. Of course, Antonio Brown usually made up for the Steelers’ defensive woes, but in two games against the Bengals this year, he had “only” 13 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown.  By comparison, his single game average this season was 8.5 catches for 114 yards and just under a touchdown (A.J. Green’s two games against the Steelers?  A combined 17 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns).

            Pittsburgh feels like the obvious pick in this game due to the Bengals’ postseason woes, the Steelers’ postseason successes, and Dalton’s injury.  But in picking Pittsburgh, you’re also going with a team that was mediocre on the road, has a highly suspect running game at the moment, and quietly hasn’t won a road playoff game since . . . you guessed it, their improbable Super Bowl run in 2005.  The Bengals’ defense, meanwhile, gave up the second-fewest points, surrendered the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and picked off the third-most passes. Remember that although Dalton is injured, the rest of the team is at the healthiest it has been all season.  Remember that in its final ten games, Pittsburgh has committed 25 turnovers, while Cincinnati is 7-1 in games where they forced more than one turnover.  It would be naïve to completely overlook the Bengals’ woeful playoff record in the Marvin Lewis era (0-6), but I also think the public is being oversold on the Steelers, whose players are more likely to start on a fantasy football championship team than any real one.  So why not.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Pittsburgh 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2000 AFC Wild Card, Miami 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT).  Another one of those Peyton Manning playoff gems.  Like the Steelers, the Colts had all the offensive firepower and most of the public betting line on their side.  Like the Bengals, the Dolphins had the better defense, the better run game, were playing at home, and were fairly comfortable in the underdog role. At the time, the two teams played in the same division and had split the regular season series with the road team victorious in each game.  This game is popularly remembered as the “Lamar Miller game” because of his unreal stat line (40 carries, 209 yards, 2 TDs); if Hill and Bernard can combine for those numbers, the Bengals should overcome the limitations of Jay Fiedler A.J. McCarron and emerge on top.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+6)

Sunday, January 10, 1:05pm EST, NBC.

            The most intriguing matchup of the weekend.  Like Pittsburgh-Cincinnati, the game feels deceptively easy to predict: The Seahawks, who haven’t lost a playoff game to an NFC team in three years, get a rematch with the same team they annihilated by 31 points on the road only five weeks ago.  Seattle gets back its star runningback (who missed the game due to injury).  Minnesota finished in the bottom five of total offense and is led by Teddy Bridgewater, a quarterback making his playoff debut.  He also threw only 14 touchdowns all season – fewer than Tyrod Taylor, Andrew Luck, and Marcus Mariota (none of whom played all 16 games like Bridgewater).

            Let’s continue to wax poetic about Seattle for a moment. Though they finished with 10 wins on the season, they finished ranked first in advanced metric’s DVOA rankings.  For the fourth straight year.  They finished first in scoring defense (also for the fourth consecutive year) and boasted the first quarterback in history with 4,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards, and 30 touchdowns thrown (and he’s a Good Person too!).  In fact, the offense (which finished fourth in the league) seemed to get better after it lost what most people thought to be its two most explosive players, Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham.  Since Week 12 (Graham’s last appearance), Seattle’s offense has averaged 32.5 points per game while allowing just over 14 points.

            Let’s also look at criticisms of Seattle which I have had in the past: Namely, their poor play on the road and the subpar quality of their opponents.  After losing its first three road games, Seattle hasn’t lost away from the friendly confines of Qwest Field since October 11 – a hot streak that will prove pivotal if they hope for success in the playoffs as a 6 seed.  They did beat a lot of bad teams down the stretch (San Francisco, Baltimore, Cleveland), but also played Arizona, Carolina, Cincinnati and Green Bay.  It’s not realistic (as it was in 2013 and 2014) to claim Seattle had an easy schedule in 2015; in fact, according to standard SRS rankings, the only playoff team with a tougher regular season schedule was Green Bay.  They don’t have a great deal of injuries (although it remains to see how effective Lynch will be after his sports hernia surgery), and are eager to restore their postseason dignity after the worst hiccup in the history of football.

             The Seahawks have played the Panthers, Cardinals (twice), Packers and Vikings already, and played competitively against each of them. In fact, the Rams game two weeks ago marked the first game in Russell Wilson’s career where the Seahawks didn’t enjoy the lead at some point of the game (we’ll get back to the Rams game in a second).  T.J. Lockett patched up the holes in the special teams game; Doug Baldwin led the NFL in receiving touchdowns; Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Bobby Wagner are probably the three best defensive players in the league not named Watt.  Simply put, this team has no ostensible shortcomings.

            And yet, they somehow lost six games in 2015, which costs them any hope of enjoying the league’s most feared homefield advantage in the postseason.  Early on, Seattle had a bad case of giving up fourth quarter leads, which was probably the most uncharacteristic problem imaginable for this defense.  They did give up big passing days to Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer, and finished in the middle of the pack in takeaways.  They got lucky a few times (remember that they are the Seahawks), but no one doubts that they come into the playoffs as the league’s hottest and most feared team.  It’s possible that the Packers intentionally lost to the Vikings on Week 17, costing them the division crown and a home playoff game, just to avoid playing Seattle.

            So the best case scenario for the Vikings has little to do with the talent on the field – they need strange, extraordinary things to happen off it.  In this category, Minnesota is getting some help from the football gods: The game is scheduled to be played in sub-zero temperatures, which certainly could slow down the Wilson-to-Baldwin connection through the air.  It is also being played at 10am Pacific time Sunday; Seahawks fans will remember the last two postseason games played in that time slot were losses (to Atlanta in 2013, Chicago in 2011).  Of course, the December 6 game between the two teams was played at 10am Pacific time, but the temperature that day was a balmy 37 degrees.

            Another good sign for Minnesota: They finished the season with the league’s best record against the spread: 13-3 (13-2 if you don’t count their Week One clusterf*** against the 49ers).  And let’s be honest: the spread in this game is ridiculous.  Remember what happened after Pittsburgh was favored over Tim Tebow by 7.5 and the Saints were 10 point favorites over Beast Mode?  The Vikings certainly don’t mind being underdogs.  Finally, there’s one more important thing that should frighten Seahawks fans: The kryptonite to Seattle has been the St. Louis Rams, who swept them this season and consistently play them tough.  By my estimation, the Vikings are essentially a better version of the Rams: Outstanding defensive line, run-first ball control offense, the league’s best special teams.  Like the Rams, the offense isn’t talented enough to overcome a 14-0 or maybe even a 10-0 deficit.  That is not their game.  The game plan for the Vikings is to build an early lead, force Seattle into three-and-outs (not impossible), and have Adrian Peterson run the clock out so they can hit the warm showers early.

            All of this is good in theory, and I really want to pick the Vikings here. But I also wanted to pick Minnesota in the December 6 matchup, and we all know how that turned out (it is worth noting that Harrison Smith and Anthony Barr missed most of the game).  Minnesota did everything they were supposed to this year, and they deserve praise for a great season.  But unfortunately in this instance, they drew the short straw.  The six-point line is too high (did everyone magically forget about this?) and the game could be close, particularly if the Seahawks cannot match the Vikings’ ground attack, but there is a reason Seattle has been the league’s best regular season team four consecutive years and running.

Prediction: Seattle 24, Minnesota 19

Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 NFC Wild Card, Green Bay 21, Philadelphia 16.  The Packers were the 6 seed and Philadelphia hadn’t been division champs for a while (it was also Michael Vick’s first playoff game in six seasons and his first-ever as an Eagle).  But no one could stop Aaron Rodgers, just as no team could boast the Packers’ depth on both the offense and defensive sides of the ball (in spite of question marks in the running game).  The Packers took a 14-0 lead in the second quarter and survived a late Eagles threat to commence a Super Bowl run that many could see coming in spite of a deceptive 10-6 record.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (Pick ‘em)

Sunday, January 10, 4:40pm EST, Fox.

            The easiest game of the week to predict, although it would not have seemed that way in mid-October, when the Packers looked dominant 6-0 and the Redskins at 2-4 looked like . . . well, the Redskins.  But since then, the Packers have gone 4-6, while the Redskins have exceeded all expectations, finishing the final ten games 7-3.  I anticipate those divergent paths to remain the same this weekend.

            The line for this game is a pick ‘em for one reason and one reason alone: Aaron Rodgers.  No one wants to bet against him in the playoffs.  But in spite of the NFL’s golden boy and his ebullient glow, the Packers have serious problems.  They are incapable of mounting a consistent ground game, with Eddie Lacy oscillating somewhere between Christian Okoye and the Pillsbury Doughboy.  How is this for a stat line: This season, Lacy had more games with under 10 yards rushing (4) than games with over 100 yards (3).  Sure, he was battling injuries but inconsistency seemed to bite everyone on offense: James Jones (three 100 yard games, five games with one or less receptions), Davante Adams (eight games under 40 yards), Richard Rodgers (seven games under 20 yards).  What happened to the prolific Packers offense of three or four years ago? 

            Here’s the most amazing stat about the 2015 Packers: They went 0-3 in divisional home games.  Let me repeat that: 0-3 in divisional games at home.  That’s right, the Bears, Vikings and Lions were all victorious at Lambeau this season.  Of course, they won’t be playing any home games against the NFC North this postseason, but that information is instructive in showing that the Packers were incapable of beating teams they should have.  On the flip side, Green Bay’s most impressive win came against the Seahawks all the way back in Week 2; after that, the only playoff teams the Pack defeated were the Chiefs and the Vikings. 

            So we get that Green Bay is flawed, but . . . the Redskins?  Really?  They don’t have many impressive wins either (their biggest win was probably at Philadelphia two weeks ago) and they benefitted from playing in the NFC’s weakest division.  But there is one thing they did better than almost any other team: Washington was outstanding at home, with Kirk Cousins setting an NFL record for pass completion percentage in home games (74.7 percent).  As a team, the Redskins ran the ball pretty well too, averaging just under 129 yards per game at the friendly confines for FedEx Field.

            Cousins had an outstanding season, and his stats were remarkably similar to Rodgers (101.6 QB rating to Rodgers’ 92.7).  Between DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed, Washington has one of the best corps of unheralded receivers in the league.  The running game isn’t much, but Alfred Morris is basically a LeGarrette Blount-type who can move the ball forward on third-and-ones, and rookie Matt Jones (questionable this weekend) frequently provided a spark. 

            They’re not much on paper, but with the way that Cousins is playing right now, Washington is a threat to score from anywhere on the field.  They are 8-0 in games where they score 23 or more points (which the Packers defense has given up in five of its eight road games), and the Skins are 8-1 when turning over the ball one time or less.  Mike McCarthy isn’t exactly a safe bet in playoff games, and since their victory in Super Bowl 45, the Pack are 2-4 in the postseason.  Green Bay also hasn’t won in Washington since 2004.  At some point, these things start adding up and you find yourself going with whoever has the hot hand, which in this case is the Redskins.  Rodgers hasn’t usually been counted out, and on the few occasions he has, his response was as relieving as it was relaxing to fans.  But the Redskins feel very 2008 Cardinals-ish – a doormat franchise with an explosive offense and ragtag defense – and the Packers haven’t impressed anyone since Week Two.  Who wouldn’t like that?

Prediction: Washington 30, Green Bay 24

Playoff Doppelganger: 2000 NFC Wild Card, New Orleans 31, St. Louis 28.  No one thought the Greatest Show on Turf would have any difficulties with the upstart Saints, but everyone forgot that they had a lot of injuries, turned the ball over a lot, and had a defense that couldn’t close out games.  Unlike the 2015 Redskins, the 2000 Saints were actually lousy at home (3-5) but Aaron Brooks and a trio of solid young receivers just enough to earn the franchise’s first-ever playoff win.  It would not be their last.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Surprised I went the entire article without mentioning my the league's best quarterback who didn't need HGH?  Let me know below. 

2014 at Halftime: The NFL Mid-Season Report and Awards

 

           Remember the good ole days when the biggest offseason storylines from the NFL were limited to treatment of concussions and long-term effects of brain injuries?  With the unresolved sagas of Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Breaking Bad-style de-evolution of Roger Goodell into a Vince McMahon-like league villain, it’s safe to say those days are gone.  There has been, however, some good football to come out of the 2014 season at its mid-point – it just hasn’t involved any of the following: Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jay Cutler, Thursday Night Football, professional football in Washington D.C. and Oakland, London games played at 6:00am PST, and ghosts of Bill Gramatica.

Biggest Surprise: There are a few viable candidates here.  The Cleveland Browns are somehow 5-3 despite 0 yards being gained from Johnny Football, the non-reinstatement of their best receiver, injuries to their second-best pass catcher (Jordan Cameron), playing in a super-competitive division where everyone is above .500, and having a bottom-three rush defense.  And yet Cleveland has victories over New Orleans and Pittsburgh, along with two last-second losses to the Ravens and Steelers.  Their lone bad performance all season came against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (go figure).  And perhaps most amazingly of all, Mike Pettine has not even been fired yet!

            You could also go with the Buffalo Bills (5-3 in spite of a bad draft, major injuries on offense and defense, and Kyle Orton as QB) or the Miami Dolphins (also 5-3 with dominant victories over New England, Chicago and San Diego, with Ryan Tannehill turning into a white Michael Vick).  Or you could go with DeMarco Murray, a guy who suffered through severe sprained ankle, foot and MCL injuries the last three seasons before reaching a career high in rushing yards for a season . . . through the first nine games of 2014.  He is on pace for 2,000 rushing and 440 receiving yards while taking the title of unquestionably the NFL’s best runningback. 

            But the winner here has to be the only team to have held Murray under 100 yards in a game, which is precisely what the 7-1 Arizona Cardinals did last week.  If you were to ask at the beginning of the season which NFC team would start out with the best record through eight games, I realistically would have picked eight other teams before the Cards (Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta).  It’s not as though the Cardinals are statistically blowing opponents away; the Cardinals rank dead last in pass yards allowed, 5^th worst in rushing offense, and have only outscored their opponents by a total of 36 points.  Hell, they’ve had to turn to the likes of Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, and Larry Foote to cement key wins.  They are winning games for two primary reasons: They don’t turn the ball over (six turnovers through eight games) and they know how to win close games.

            Of course on the flip side, you could make the case that moving forward the Cardinals still have to face the 49ers, Lions, Chiefs and two games against the defending champs.  They still have a 35-year-old quarterback who has never won a playoff game and an offense that has eclipsed 30 points only once.  But you could also point to how they have the best secondary in football with the fearsome combination of Cromartie-Peterson-Matthieu and how Deone Bucannon is a viable defensive rookie of the year candidate.  In a year when everything that could go wrong for Seattle and San Francisco has gone really wrong, Arizona has stepped in out of nowhere and played better than anyone could have expected (in its last 17 games, the Cardinals are an amazing 14-3).  I expect nothing less than this team to go on a 2008-like playoff run, and if that is the case, Arians seems like a shoo-in for Coach of the Year, while Palmer (11 TDs, 2 INTs, 99.3 QB rating) could be a front-runner (along with Arian Foster and Kyle Orton) for Comeback Player of the Year.

Biggest Disappointment: It’s hard to find an example of a disappointing team in the group of five AFC teams with losing records (Jets, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders).  I don’t think anyone expected New York to be 1-8 at this point but I also don’t think many people realistically estimated substantial growth from Geno Smith or considerable help from 34-year-old Michael Vick.  They’ve also played only one sub-.500 team all season – the Raiders – which accounted for their lone victory.  Their October16 loss to the Patriots on a short week – a loss eerily mirroring their questionably-officiated, game-winning FG victory from last year – was their 2014 season.  Meanwhile, I would argue that the Jaguars and Raiders are playing much better football than their record would suggest.

            That leads us to the NFC.  A cumulative record of 9-7 for the two best teams of 2013 (the Seahawks and 49ers) has to be considered a disappointment at some level, but both teams have suffered through throngs of injuries on both sides of the ball, along with a pair truly agonizing losses to the Rams.  If you had told Saints fans their team would be 4-4 at the break, you’d be met with some groans . . . but this would be amended after you told them that New Orleans is still the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South.  Atlanta and Carolina are certainly suffering through painful seasons after their successes in 2012 and 2013 respectively, but neither was exactly the Super Bowl favorite coming into 2014.

            Believe it or not, the only team that truly fits the bill for disappointment is the 3-5 Chicago Bears.  They are the very definition of an erratic and frustrating team: 0-3 at home, 3-2 on the road; blowout losses to the Dolphins and Packers, yet a truly impressive victory in San Francisco against the 49ers on national television; statistically outstanding seasons from Jay Cutler (17 TDs, 95.8 QB rating) and Matt Forte (1,000 total yards) but 9 fumbles by Cutler and only 3 rushing touchdowns for Forte.  Most beguiling of all, the Bears haven’t suffered any serious injuries outside of Peanut Tillman, meaning one of two things: Either (A) their starters really are just that bad, or (B) the team has lost focus due to turmoil in the locker room and lack of leadership on the parts of Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Marc Trestman. 

            For the second half of the season, the Bears do get treated to home games against the Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Saints and Lions, meaning they have ample room make up ground in the NFC North.  But there’s no way of predicting which team will show up on the field on any given day – the one that held the Falcons to under 300 yards of total offense or the team that gave up 21 points to the Patriots in a span of48 seconds.  Is it too late to call up Josh McCown again?

Team to watch in the Second Half: Once again, the disappointing first halves for the Seahawks and 49ers suggest that both teams are more than capable of righting the ship in time for playoff runs virtually everyone banked on going into the season.  Meanwhile, someone has to win the NFC East and while history would suggest that Eli Manning and the Giants can be the beneficiaries of injuries to Nick Foles and Tony Romo, New York has also lost three straight, has to fly to Seattle this weekend, and hasn’t defeated a team over .500.

            There is, however, a 2013 playoff team that no one is talking about because Brady-Manning-Luck have overshadowed the race in the AFC.  This team has victories over the Dolphins, Patriots, and Chargers, and close losses to the 49ers and Broncos.  So yes, while everyone in Jayhawk country spent the majority of the month of October rooting for their incredible baseball team (or rooting unsuccessfully against their odious governor), you could make the case that quietly the 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs are playing the best football in the NFL right now. They have found a legitimately frightening two-headed beast at runningback with the combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, while Alex Smith is completing over 67 percent of his passes – most of which are going into the arms of breakout tight end Travis Kelce (419 yards, 4 TDs).  On defense, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have remained healthy and fearsome, combining for 16 sacks, and the Chiefs defense has given up the fewest points in the AFC (138).

            The problem?  Kansas City has been absolutely incapable of creating turnovers.  Of the five (you read that correctly, five) takeaways they’ve forced through eight games, three came against one opponent (the Patriots, on that memorable Monday night stampeding). Due to the impressive ball control abilities of the offense, the lack of takeaways hasn’t received a lot of notice, but the upcoming return of Eric Berry (out of the lineup since Week Two) should help a secondary that gets stabs at Kyle Orton and Derek Carr twice . . . but also Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Ben Roethlisberger.  I’m picking Kansas City here not so much because their schedule is favorable (which it is anyway) but because this is a legitimately talented team with playoff experience that is seriously going under the radar. We all now know what teams in KansasCity – along with their tremendous fans – are capable of.

Coach of the Year: Arians, for the reasons stated in the “Biggest Surprise” category.  But a close second would be Jim Caldwell, who has somehow turned the Lions into the best defense in football.  I don’t have complete faith in their 6-2 record, since two of those games were super-fluky wins over the Saints and Falcons, but Caldwell has done an amazing job of turning around a team that hasn’t had a top-ten defense since 1983.  All the more impressive is that defensive players haven’t revolted in wake of Ndamukong Suh’s lame-duck year.  I guess I just don’t understand how Caldwell is such a good coach – does he motivate his players through stern looks and unrelenting stares into empty space? 

Best Team: Come on.  This isn’t really all that tough, is it?  A month ago, the New England Patriots were sitting at 2-2.  They had two blowout conference losses, a home game against the Raiders they should have lost, and a borderline-unfair win against Matt Cassel and the Vikings the same week the Adrian Peterson scandal broke.  The beloved Belichick-Brady era seemed on its final ropes, as everyone had started predicting as long as five years ago.  “Trading Logan Mankins a week before the season was a terrible idea!” They chimed.  “No one can catch the ball other than Edelman and Gronk!” They proclaimed.  “They’re too old/slow/banged up/inexperienced/unmotivated/overmatched/untalented!” They insisted.

            It’s amazing to me that in year 14 of Brady-Belichick experiment people still don’t seem to realize that the Patriots feed off when the media criticizes them.  No way they can beat the Greatest Show on Turf in an indoors Super Bowl?  Not a problem.  No way they can recover from the penalties and repercussions of SpyGate?  No big deal.  No way they can win games after Brady goes down in the first quarter of Week One?  Nobody cares.  Take your pick of adversity and criticisms this team has faced: Losing Wes Welker and Randy Moss, the Aaron Hernandez saga, Gronkowski’s injuries, Brady’s age, bad officiating, bad drafting, 4^th-and-2, and the Manning Brothers (good times and bad). 

            And yet after that shellacking by the Chiefs, the media still insisted that the Patriots were done for.  Don’t get me wrong.  That Kansas City game was terrible.  But as awful as that game was for Tom and company (and the fans that had to watch it), New England has responded with precisely that much more intensity, anger, and outstanding play – and they have done so in spite of losing their best rusher (Stevan Ridley), their best tackler (Jerrod Mayo) and their best defensive lineman (Chandler Jones).  They put up 43 points on the Broncos and the Bengals; Tom went 150 passes without throwing an interception (the one he did throw last week was a tipped pass); and with Brandon Browner back in the lineup, the secondary is pretty clearly the best in the AFC.  And the losses of Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, and Logan Mankins?  Not exactly the first thing on Pats’ fans minds anymore . . .

            So here’s the real question: How far can this team really go?  We’ve heard all these glowing praises before, but the Pats always find ways to shoot themselves in the foot with injuries and inexplicably poor play in January.  They have an incredibly tough slate of games coming up (at Indianapolis, at Green Bay, at San Diego, home for Detroit and Miami; meanwhile, Denver gets Oakland twice).  They haven’t run the ball especially well without Ridley and we all know Gronk could have a fluke injury at any point (every game there’s at least one “hold-your-breath-for-dear-life” moment like this one).  Peyton Manning won’t forget last week any time soon.  But for the time being, I’d take this group against any other team in the league, and the tough schedule will help keep them disciplined in their quest for title #4.

MVP: This is a tough one.  Prior to the last few weeks, the obvious candidate was Murray, a guy who legitimately seemed unstoppable in the rare Adrian Peterson/Jamal Lewis-in-2003/Barry Sanders mode.  And of course Murray could still win it, but two things will almost certainly need to happen: He will need to break the 2,000 rushing yard mark and the Cowboys will need to make the playoffs. 

            Murray supporters will also need to root for more mediocre play from perennial MVP candidates like Brady, Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, but I think the real favorite here has to be Andrew Luck.  He’s on pace for 5,484 yards, which would pass Manning’s record breaking mark from last season.  He has accounted for at least two total touchdowns in every game this season, and hasn’t exactly been able to rely on the ground game of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw (even though the latter has played better than anyone expected).  If the NFL’s PR campaign wants to brand the league as guys who take the game seriously, have no off-the-field issues, and who are universally loved by seemingly everybody, then Luck is precisely the player they would want to bestow the league’s highest individual honor on.  And let’s be honest – this Colts team is hardly loaded with talent, and a total of zero people were seriously panicked after Indy’s 0-2 start or their defensive meltdown against the Steelers.  Luck just promotes that kind of confidence in this team.

            I write all this and yet (you’re going to hate me for this) my MVP vote goes to Rob Gronkowski.  Simply put, he is the most explosive offensive weapon in football.  You can’t put a linebacker on him because he’s too mobile, but you can’t put a safety on him because he’ll run him over.  You can’t protect against his run-blocking because he’s too dominant, and there’s no way you can guard against him with one-on-one coverage.  And then there are plays like these which he makes once or twice per game, which no one can possibly defend against.  In his five years in the league, no team has sufficiently figured out how to cover him, and if you don’t believe me, take a look at his career game log: 31 five-catch games, 15 100-yard games, and 35 games with a TD. 

            Gronkowski has been the best player in football in 2014 and this is true even considering how limited he was in the Pats’ first four games (he still managed three TDs).  With a healthy Gronkowski, the New England offense is historically great, and this isn’t even factoring in the receiving play of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen.  He has systematically redefined the position he plays – how many players can you say that about?

            So there’s my mid-season report and I’m still not wavering from the Super Bowl pick I made at the beginning of the season: 31-30 Patriots over Seahawks.  Comments?  Questions?  Not enough time spent talking about how great New England is playing?  Write them below! 

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Round

           It’s playoff time!  Or as it’s known in my house, divorce month.  Before we delve into my picks for the Wild Card Weekend, let’s be entirely indulgent and review my best and worst preseason predictions based on the season preview article I wrote in September:

                                                                     

3^rd best prediction: “Josh Gordon will lead the AFC North in receiving yards.” This would have been my best prediction had I had enough balls to predict he would lead the entire league in receiving yards.  But this is a fairly impressive prediction since (A) two other AFC North receivers (Antonio Brown and AJ Green) finished in the NFL’s top five receiving yards, (B) he missed the first four games of the season, and (C) he plays for the Cleveland Freaking Browns.  As a proud owner of Gordon in three fantasy leagues this season, I'm satisfied.

2^nd best prediction: “No Colt will have more rushing yards than Arian Foster or Ben Tate.” Tate finished with 771 yards and Foster finished with 542.  The Colts’ leading rusher, Donald Brown, finished with 537.  Want another amazing statistic?  Houston and Indianapolis finished with the exact same total rushing yardage, 1743 (Indy had 409 rush attempts, Houston 414).  Additionally, both teams’ leading rusher per carry was their quarterback (Andrew Luck and Case Keenum).  One team finished 11-5 and AFC South champions, the other finished 2-14.  As David St. Hubbins once said, “It’s such a fine line between stupid and clever.”

Best prediction: “The Eagles will finish 10-6 and win the NFC East.” This prediction was about 50 percent unbridled Chip Kelly enthusiasm, and 50 percent “every other team in the NFC East sucks.” Admittedly, it was 0 percent “Nick Foles is going to throw 27 TDs and 2 Ints, including a seven-touchdown game.”  However, I did predict Philadelphia would go 5-0 in December (they finished 4-1) and that the Redskins would finish at the bottom of the division.  Quiet NFC East subplot: Do you realize that no NFC East team has finished with 11 or more wins since 2009?  Second quiet NFC East subplot: The last quarterback to win consecutive NFC East division titles was Donovan McNabb (Hint: This may have influenced my Philadelphia pick this weekend).

3^rd worst prediction: “The Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans will win their divisions.” I was definitely not alone in these predictions, and therefore I’m not too embarrassed by them.  Atlanta had never had a losing season under Mike Smith, and the Texans appeared to boast the AFC’s most balanced offense.  And admittedly, in 2013 they both went 5-16 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  But they also won a combined 19 games fewer than in 2012, and were generally atrocious all season.  They also stunk up a combined eight nationally televised prime time games, while the 12-4 Panthers and 10-6 Cardinals got a total of four. 

2^nd worst prediction: “Joe Flacco will have a better year statistically than 2012.” His 2012 numbers (when he became simply “Joe”): 10 wins, 3817 yards, 22 TDs, 10 interceptions, a Super Bowl championship.  His 2013 numbers (when he regressed to “Flacco”): 8 wins, 3912 yards, 19 TDs, 22 interceptions, zero playoff appearances, one $120.6 million contract extension.  Yikes.

Worst prediction: “Michael Vick will start all 16 games for the Eagles.” My best and worst predictions involved the same team – appropriately, it was for the same erratic team that gave up 48 points to Matt Cassel and Matt Asiata and then beat the Bears by 43 in a span of seven days.  I must have been in an altered state when writing this sentence, or simply looking for something provocative and completely untenable to proclaim a la Skip Bayless. 

            Now that I’ve earned your adamant trust with my incredible abilities to accurately predict the outcome of the NFL season, let us proceed to break down this weekend’s playoff games.

            Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 4:35pm EST, NBC.

            It’s always nice when we have precedent to base these games on: Two weeks ago, Indianapolis marched into Kansas City having gone two months without a single impressive win to speak of.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs had averaged 42 points in its past four games.  The result was one-sided: The Colts stomped the Chiefs 23-7 at Arrowhead Stadium.

            Now that the venue has shifted to Indianapolis, why should we believe the results will be any different?  Kansas City beat one playoff team all season (the Michael Vick-led Eagles in Week 3) and went 0-5 against playoff teams from the AFC.  The Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game in twenty years, and almost no one on Kansas City has any real playoff experience to speak of with the exception of Alex Smith’s two January games in 2011.  And then there is Andy Reid, who hasn’t made it to the divisional round of the playoffs since 2008.  Yes, they were a top-six team offensively and defensively and had an AFC-best +18 turnover ratio; but they were also outgained by nearly 500 yards over the course of the season, and had a -3 turnover ratio two weeks ago in Indianapolis.

            Perhaps the Chiefs’ best hope is in the Colts’ unpredictability.  Indianapolis beat San Francisco, Seattle and Denver . . . but lost to St. Louis at home by 30 (they also lost to Arizona by 29, but that loss doesn’t look quite as bad in retrospect).  They held five opponents to 10 points or fewer, but also had three opponents score 38 or higher.  Another sign of hope for Kansas City is Indianapolis’ futility at running the ball.  Trent Richardson is still averaging under 3 yards per carry, and Donald Brown, while more effective, doesn’t have a game with 14+ carries.  The Chiefs are 6-0 in games where they hold opponents to under 100 yards rushing; the Colts are 2-4 in such games. 

            But really, those kind of stats are relatively insignificant in the playoffs because it is quarterbacks that take over.  Remember when the 2011 Giants entered the playoffs with the league’s worst rushing attack?  Remember when the 2010 Packers ran the ball in the postseason with an unknown rookie named James Starks?  If Indianapolis is going to win, it will be with Andrew Luck’s arm.  He doesn’t have seven game-winning drives like he did in 2012, but his completion percentage is higher, interceptions is lower, and the Colts went from 27 turnovers last season to a league-low 14 this year.  They have the best pass rusher in the NFL (Robert Mathis) who will wreak havoc against a QB sacked 39 times in 2013.  And you don’t think those mild-mannered Indianapolis fans will be pumped up for Andrew Luck’s first home playoff game?  The Chiefs have been a good story all season, but I would be surprised to see them make it to the divisional round.

            Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Kansas City 13

            Playoff Doppelganger: 2007 AFC Wild Card, San Diego 17, Tennessee 6. Do you remember this game?  Exactly, me neither.  Actually, I remember that during that Wild Card weekend, I had to drive from Eugene to Portland, meaning I would miss at least one playoff game. This was the game I chose, meaning I instead got to see this.  Good choice.  Anyway, this was Phillip Rivers’ first home playoff win against a reinvigorated defensive team that could not play from behind.  Bleh.  This wild card weekend, get your chores done Saturday afternoon before claiming the TV set for . . .

            New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

            Saturday, January 4, 8:10 EST, NBC.

            One of two games this weekend where the more experienced quarterback is a road underdog – not a common occurrence in the NFL playoffs.

            The Saints remind me of the mid-to-late-90s Miami Dolphins.  They have a quarterback who seems to break a new passing record every week, but are unexceptional at running the ball, have a mediocre defense, and can’t win on the road.  The odds of the Saints winning four straight road games, including games in rainy Seattle and blizzard conditions in the Meadowlands . . . well let’s just say they should continue to be thankful for their Super Bowl title (something Dan Marino could never say).  But we’re not talking about a Super Bowl run – all we’re trying to predict is if this team can beat a rookie coach, his second-year quarterback, and a defense that gave up the third-most yards in the league.

            The question here really is whether statistics and conventional wisdom matter.  If they do, then the Saints should win this game.  They are the better team in virtually every significant category (with the exception of two, which I’ll get to in a second).  They played in the better division, they have more experience, and they have the better defense statistically (somehow, they’ve given up the second-fewest passing yards in the league; one year ago, they finished as the league’s second-worst).  As good as Foles’ numbers have been (27 TDs vs. 2 interceptions), Brees’ passing numbers are prolific, and when healthy, Jimmy Graham was virtually unstoppable. 

            Now let’s get to those problematic areas for the Saints.  The first one is extremely well-documented: Their road woes.  They were 3-5 away from the Superdome this year, and have not won an away playoff game under the Sean Peyton-Drew Brees regime.  This season, they were competitive in three of those road losses (the Panthers and Patriots games were lost in the final seconds), and it could be argued that all of those road losses came against quality defenses (their other two losses were against Seattle, St. Louis, and the New York Jets).  Fortunately for New Orleans, Philadelphia was only 4-4 at home, and judging by their inability to shut down the likes of Kyle Orton last week (along with the 4907 passing yards they gave up in 2013), their secondary cannot exactly be called elite.

            The second problematic area for the Saints is a little more telling: They can’t run the ball consistently.  In three of its losses, New Orleans ran for fewer than 61 yards.  In fact, throw out the Dallas game (when Mark Ingram inexplicably ran all over the porous Cowboys’ D) and the Saints didn’t have a game where they rushed for over 131 yards.  Philadelphia had nine such games in 2013, and seven of the Saints rush defense’s nine worst games in 2013 came on the road.  Conventional wisdom says that the best way to shut down a prolific passing offense is by controlling the clock, and should LeSean McCoy run wild, it could be a long day for the Saints (God I hate writing sentences like that – I feel like Talking Head Guy).

            Philadelphia is on a remarkable eight-game streak.  In going 7-1, they’ve resurrected a season which seemed doomed by a catastrophic mix of Michael Vick’s injury and Chip Kelly’s inexperience.  They’ve scored 266 points and committed five turnovers during that span.  But their defense isn’t great, and I choose to believe that when the Saints lose on the road, it is more often than not because of the good defenses they face.  This is the toughest game of the weekend to predict, but when it comes to this many unpredictable factors, you have to take experience over inexperience. 

            Prediction: New Orleans 28, Philadelphia 24

            Playoff doppelganger: 1999 AFC Wild Card, Miami 20, Seattle 17.  Gotta go back to the archives for this one, but I remember this game well.  The Dolphins, like the Saints, were lousy on the road and fairly one-dimensional, and were thought to be underdogs against an up-and-coming AFC team at home with a new coach/QB combination.   Well surprise surprise, Marino in his last season came through with one more impressive playoff win before getting demolished by 55 points on the road the following week.  Hmm.

            San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

            Sunday, January 5, 1:05pm EST, CBS.

            As a Patriots fan, this game scares me.  Either we’ll get Cincinnati in round two – a tough, physical team with a dynamic offense that already beat us earlier this season – or potentially San Diego in the AFC Championship – by that point, a surefire “team of destiny” candidate after wins over the Chiefs, Bengals and Broncos (twice). 

            I guess the underlying message of that is: both teams have talent and the potential to go deep into the postseason.  In an AFC dominated by serious questions about whether the Broncos and Patriots can overcome major injuries on both sides of the ball, Cincinnati and San Diego both boast excellent offenses with powerful running games.  And while the Bengals may have the best defense in the AFC, the Chargers are certainly the hottest team heading into the playoffs, having won four straight with major wins over Kansas City and Denver (both on the road).

            Like Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers is the second veteran QB this weekend to be an underdog on the road.  And like Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton is making his home playoff debut, still searching for his first postseason victory.  The Bengals have been spectacular at home, averaging 41.6 points in their last five home games.  They haven’t lost at home all season, and handled the likes of New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Baltimore.  And although they were mediocre on the road, going 4-4, one of those wins was crucially against San Diego, giving the Chargers their lone December loss.  Dalton threw for more touchdowns than Rivers, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.  In making their offense more vertical, Cincinnati has tried to emulate the crucial explosiveness Baltimore had in their Super Bowl run last year.  And it’s not like BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard are exactly bad running options.

            It’s tempting to believe that the Chargers have more playoff experience than the Bengals, but actually, this is their first trip to the playoffs since 2009.  And with the exceptions of Rivers, Antonio Gates, and Eric Weddle, this team doesn’t really resemble the squad that lost at home to the Jets and the Sanchize four years ago. What does make this San Diego team feel familiar is their typically erratic pre-December play; while they beat Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Philadelphia, they also lost to Houston, Oakland and Washington.  But we all know that Philip Rivers is a quarterback who relies on emotion for motivation – this is dangerous.  It boils down to whether you can stand behind a guy who acts like this.

            Thus, in Rivers’ four playoff appearances, the Chargers have been favorites twice (2006 and 2009) and underdogs twice (2007 and 2008).  They blew the games in which they were favorites, and advanced when no one believed in them – just as no one believed they could go into Denver Week 15 and beat Peyton Manning.  On the flip side, no one has ever really believed in Cincinnati, a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-4 in the postseason under Marvin Lewis.

            This game would perhaps make a lot more sense if the events of Week 17 had not been so quirky: While both teams won pivotal home games, Dalton threw four interceptions and had a QB rating of 62.2, while the Chargers needed a miraculous field goal miss to beat the Chiefs’ second-stringers.  Thus, while both teams have obvious talent, they can also look acutely mortal.  But I lean toward San Diego for a few reasons: (A) I’d take Philip Rivers as an underdog over Andy Dalton as a favorite, (B) San Diego’s road wins have been more impressive than Cincinnati’s home wins, and (C) San Diego hasn’t played a lousy game since October 6, when they lost to Oakland.  They may have lost more games during that time, but unlike Cincinnati, they haven’t laid any stink bombs like this. 

The best case for Cincinnati is their 8-0 record at home.  As a Patriots fan who saw home playoff losses in three of the past four years, I can say 8-0 in the regular season doesn’t mean crap.  Since 2005, the recipe for winning in the playoffs has been based around momentum, emotion, the ability to win on the road, and experienced, fearless quarterback play.  Those qualities are manifested in this unlikely Chargers team – a team that should put the rest of the league on notice.

           

            Prediction: San Diego 28, Cincinnati 19

            Playoff doppelganger: 2008 AFC Wild Card Round, San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT). This year’s Chargers were 5-7 heading into December, which isn’t quite as bad as the 2008 team, which was 4-8 and four games behind division leader Denver.  After the Chargers played a spectacular December, they hosted a red-hot Colts team that hadn’t lost in two months.  The result?  Emotion over logic.

            San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers  (+3)

            January 5, 4:40pm EST, FOX.

           

            San Francisco is a highly questionable call away from having clinched the NFC’s 1 seed.  Green Bay is an epic Cowboys collapse away from being out of the playoffs entirely.  The last time a 12-win wild card team (and defending Super Bowl loser) went on the road to play an 8-win division champion, this happened.  The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, this happened.

            It could be argued that no team is playing better football than the 49ers right now.  The defense is the healthiest it has been all season, while Michael Crabtree’s return has lit a spark for the passing game.  Not that San Francisco has needed to rely on Colin Kaepernick’s arm much lately; when Kap threw for 310 yards in last week’s win in Arizona, it was his first time eclipsing 300 yards in the air since Week 1 against (you guessed it) the Packers.  Like Cam Newton, Kaepernick has been proven most effective when sitting in the pocket, but can still be lethal with the option.  In his last three road games, Kaepernick has 7 passing touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a QB rating of 117.4

            The Packers defied all odds by surviving an 0-4-1 stretch, and rallying behind Matt Flynn to beat the Falcons and Cowboys.  After benefitting from a pathetic NFC North, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned Week 17 an upset the Bears at Soldier Field.  Rodgers wasn’t his normal self, but still threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns.  Now he’ll have to face a defense which played the pass exceptionally all year, and has stifled Rodgers in their last three meetings. 

            If you want to come up with reasons to pick Green Bay, you can look at the emotion of Rodgers’ return, the atmosphere of Lambeau Field, and the fact that the Packers have scored 31+ points in each of its last three games.  It’s hard to beat a team four times in a row, and Eddie Lacy wasn’t really a factor in any of the past few meetings.  Kaepernick can look vulnerable on the road (ask Seattle fans), and San Francisco doesn’t have the vertical passing game to overcome large early deficits (unless the lights go out). 

            Otherwise, the 49ers are the clear pick.  As long as they don’t have to travel to Seattle, they can beat any team in the NFL.  When San Francisco scores 23 points or higher, they are 11-0.  Green Bay allowed 11 opponents to score over 23 points, and was 3-7-1 in those games.  If anything, the tundra conditions are more conducive to the 49ers grind-it-out style, and Rodgers is not at 100 percent health.  I would be a hypocrite to pick San Diego on emotion alone and completely ignore the amazing events that have transpired for the Packers, but the 49ers are a better team than the Bengals, and Green Bay’s defense can’t stop anyone.  Plus, don’t we need at least one Colin Kaepernick-Russell Wilson playoff game?

            Prediction: San Francisco 34, Green Bay 21

            Playoff doppelganger: 2005 NFC Divisional Round, Carolina 29, Chicago 21.  Rex Grossman’s return from a season-crippling ankle injury was thwarted by Carolina’s balanced attack and Steve Smith’s spectacular receiving day.  A mismatch.

            An interesting side note: In each of the past three seasons, the Super Bowl champion has played Wild Card weekend.  And in each of the past three seasons, I stupidly picked against that team in the Wild Card round.  So a preemptive congratulations to either the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals or Packers on their Super Bowl 48 championship!