Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Conference Championships

            Conference Championship Sunday is maybe my favorite day in all of sports.  You have the four best teams in football, none of which have the advantage of coming off a bye week, all of which are eager to play in the biggest game of the year.  You have passionate fan bases, unfriendly winter weather, and players exhausted to their core after playing the most grueling sport for five straight months.  But at the end of the day, you have two teams full of smiles, high-fives, Gatorade showers, and countless “Is this really happening?” expressions on player’s faces.  It’s only the next day when you wake up and realize you have 13 grueling and anxiety-ridden days until the actual Super Bowl is played – just enough time for the unnecessary glorified publicity stunts witch hunts.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3½)

Sunday, January 24, 3:05pm EST, CBS.

            We think we know everything about Brady-Manning XVII, but if you look more closely at the recent history of this celebrated matchup, it becomes clear that the past doesn’t tell us a whole lot.  For example, most of the talking heads this week have mentioned how Tom Brady is 11-5 lifetime (including the playoffs) against Peyton Manning.  True enough, but because Brady won the first six matchups, that statistic is misleading; since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, Manning actually leads the series 6-5 and is 2-0 in playoff games. 

            Even the most recent Broncos-Patriots matchups are difficult to put into perspective for this week.  Everyone remembers the November 29 hatchet job by the refs hard-fought victory by the Broncos, but let’s not forget that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did not play for the Patriots, while Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski suffered game-ending injuries prior to New England blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead.  It’s also worth remembering that Denver’s comeback was engineered not by Manning, but by Brock Osweiler.

            And then there’s the 2013 AFC Championship game played two years ago, when Manning was coming off the greatest statistical season in NFL history and instead of a healthy Gronkowski, Brady had Austin Collie. The Broncos only scored 26 points, but it was one of the worst defensive performances I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick-coached team.  Manning was unstoppable that day, going 32/43 for 400 yards, and the Broncos scored on six of their eight possessions (they punted on their first, they kneeled the ball on their last). 

            The 26 points in that game were lucky – Denver couldn’t punch the ball in the red zone, and was forced to settle for field goals.  This time around, the Broncos scoring 26 points will also be a triumph of luck, but for the Denver offense, not New England’s defense.  Denver’s offense looked predictably abysmal last week against Pittsburgh, with receivers dropping wide open passes, Manning lofting throws over receivers’ heads, and the team proving to be utterly worthless on third down conversions (3 for 15).  True, they did not turn the ball over as many people suspected they would, but needed a late-game fumble by a 4^th-string runningback no one had ever heard of in order to take back the lead and eventually put the game away.  Kind of like how back in November, they needed a late-game fumble by a punt returner no one had ever heard of (and no one has heard of since).

            The Broncos thrive on opposing teams’ mistakes.  Including last week, Denver is now 12-1 in games where they force at least one takeaway.  They’re also 13-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer, and 9-2 in games allowing 230 passing yards or less.  Now let’s consider New England: They led the league in fewest giveaways (14), they scored at least 24 points in all but three of their games (and every game that Julian Edelman was in the lineup), and Brady threw for 230+ yards in 15 of his 17 games.  In other words, New England’s offense capitalizes on the very things the Denver defense prides itself on.         

            Of course, many have asked the question of how New England plans on mounting any semblance of a ground game against the Denver defense.  Curiously, the Broncos’ two best games against the run (Week 14 vs. Oakland and Week 15 at Pittsburgh) were both losses, but because the Broncos aren’t the Colts, New England will probably not run the ball much this week anyway.  But running the ball isn’t really a priority; in games where the Patriots throw for over 270 yards, they are 10-1.  Conversely, when the Broncos throw for over 270 yards, they are a modest 5-3.

            The 26 points stat is a good one because I don’t really believe the Broncos can score that many points – at least, not with Peyton Manning at the helm and not with a healthy Patriots’ defense.  To be sure, there are a lot of unpleasant things for Patriots fans about the prospect of playing in Denver: Namely, Brady’s lifetime record there (2-6); the fact the only quarterbacks New England has defeated in Denver were Tim Tebow and Danny Kanell; the weather forecast (mildly overcast and upper-40s, as opposed to the 30 degree snowstorm conditions in Foxboro); Manning’s record in AFC championship games since 2005 (3-0); and the fact that no fourth quarter lead will be safe as a result of our inability to run the ball.

            But as a Patriots fan, I do not worry about the one thing that I’ve always worried about in the storied Brady-Manning rivalry, which is Peyton systematically tearing up our defense.  Want an absurd stat?  Two years removed from throwing 55 touchdowns in a single season, Peyton Manning has thrown a grand total of one touchdown in Denver all season, including last week.  Granted, he missed seven games due to “injury,” but one touchdown??  Brady had three touchdowns in Denver minus his top two wide receivers.  As per usual, Manning is blessed with two of the top receivers in the league (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), but both were bottled in in the November 29 game until they each caught 35+ yard passes in the game’s final 2:30.  The recipe for Denver is simple: Rely as little as possible on Manning’s throwing arm.  Run the ball down New England’s throat.  Pick up third-and-shorts and score touchdowns rather than field goals.  Limit Edelman and Gronkowski, while putting constant pressure on Brady.  Follow the advice of Cam Newton last week and start running the clock down in the first quarter.

            Do I believe the Broncos can do those things?  Maybe.  I’ve been surprised all year how Denver is able to pull victories out of their ass while looking completely inept.  But even when everything fell the Broncos’ way on November 29 (the blown lead, the turnovers, the officiating, the in-game injuries, and the fact that it was Osweiler at QB rather than Manning), the Patriots still ended up scoring 24 points and forcing overtime (while never touching the ball in OT).  If you’re taking Denver in this game, you believe that their man-on-man, blitzing defense can hold Brady and company under 20 points, which no team has done all year with Edelman in the lineup.  You also believe that Peyton Manning can throw touchdowns (which he hasn’t done) and that the ground game will repeat its performance on November 29 (except this time against a healthy Dont’a Hightower).  In other words, you hope for miracles, which Denver has admittedly had plenty of in 2015.  But at some point, luck runs out and the better team takes care of business.

Prediction: New England 27, Denver 17

Playoff Doppelganger: 2004 AFC Championship, New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.  The Steelers had a great defense but problems at QB (a shaky rookie rather than a grizzled veteran who requires HGH nothing more than leadership and faith).  The defending champion Pats had gone into Pittsburgh earlier in the year lost badly; this was their revenge game.  It’s difficult to expect the one-sidedness that that game quickly turned into, but going into the game, there were few people that ever truly doubted the result. 

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3½)

Sunday, January 24, 6:40pm EST, Fox.

            See if you can answer this simple question.  Last week, Quarterback A went 25 of 41 for 349 yards and three touchdowns.  Quarterback B finished 16 for 22 for 161 yards, one touchdown, and carried the ball 11 times for three yards.  So which quarterback had the better week?

            Of course, by this point you should know that Quarterback A is Carson Palmer and Quarterback B is Cam Newton, and it’s not really a fair question since both teams won their games and both offenses are designed differently (as well as the convenient omission that Quarterback A threw two bad interceptions).  But hopefully, the point is clear that many football statistics are deceptive.  For example, anyone who watched both quarterbacks last week would know that Cam looked considerably better, calmer, and more confident than Palmer.  Maybe it’s easier to play that way when you’re spotted a 31-point lead. 

            In any event, it’s now officially time to start worrying about Carson Palmer’s finger, no matter what the team and its former superstars are saying about the extent of his injury.  Or to put it another way: Given how bad several of his passes were last week, would it be any real consolation to Arizona fans if they found out Palmer wasn’t injured?  Then he’s just jittery, unproven, and bad at making decisions in crunch time – and all this against a mediocre Green Bay secondary at home.  More worrisome statistics from last week’s game: Between 6:48 in the first quarter (when Palmer threw a touchdown to Michael Floyd) and 3:44 of the fourth quarter (Floyd’s second receiving TD), Arizona mustered a grand total of 3 points, along with two punts and two interceptions.  David Johnson was ineffective on the ground all game (15 carries for 35 yards), and even though the Packers were extra sinful and needed two Hail Marys to force overtime, the Cardinals’ secondary still gave up 200 combined receiving yards to the uber-Caucasian combination of Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis.

            If you’re a Cardinals fan, you try your darndest to invoke the magic of the 2008 team (God, puppies, and Pakistan) and remember that the best receiver on the field this Sunday will be Larry Legend who, in his eight postseason games, has amassed an unreal 53 receptions for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns.  You can also still revel in the fact that in his four postseason games, Cam Newton still hasn’t had “that” game – you know, the one where he throws for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 50 yards on the ground for an overtime win.  Actually, maybe that’s a bad omen if you’re rooting for Arizona this weekend.  But in any event, Carolina’s two playoff victories under Cam (one of which came last year against the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals) have required very little from their quarterback.  And in case you forgot, the Cardinals still have an outstanding defense, while the Panthers still have Ted Ginn, Philly Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery.

            But I like Carolina in this game for reasons more than just Arizona’s shortcomings last week.  I believe Carolina and Seattle were the two best teams heading into last weekend, and we all saw the damage the Panthers are capable of reeking when putting their foot on the gas pedal.  Many thought Riverboat Ron was not deserving of his nickname last week when he opted to start running down the clock in the first quarter, but technically, such a conservative strategy was still pretty risky knowing the Seahawks’ flair for second-half comebacks (in case you don’t believe me, just ask Mike McCarthy).  Cam occasionally looked frustrated at being bottled up, but the Panthers looked comfortable taking care of business on third down and did indeed rush for 144 yards against the vaunted Seattle defense.  Arizona and Seattle are similar in some areas (such as lack of consistent running game and excellence at home), but different in a few crucial ones: The Seahawks have a mobile, duel-threat quarterback known for his insane improvisation; the Seahawks have had the league’s best defense the past four years; and they have been to the Super Bowl the last two.  In other words, Arizona feels a lot less intimidating than Seattle.

            While I’m weary of statistics, a few do jump out.  One is that in its first ten games, Arizona scored 30+ points on seven occasions.  In the seven games after that, Arizona has only scored 30+ points twice.  The Cardinals will have to score points in order to keep up with the Panthers, who led the league in offense and like the Patriots, scored 27 points or more in all but three games.  The Panthers obviously thrive off the run, but in the three games where Arizona has given up 140 yards or more on the ground, they are 0-3.  Carolina also led the league in most takeaways; Arizona finished 17^th in the league in giveaways.  Arizona is 10-0 in games where they rushed for more than 115 yards; Carolina only permitted four such games, all of which ended up being Panthers victories.

            Bruce Arians is a great coach and Larry Legend is a great receiver, but the Panthers are the league’s most complete team.  Last week eliminated any doubts about their weak schedule, Cam’s playoff credentials, or taking on proven opponents in big games.  Like I said earlier, because last week’s game was such a blowout early, we only saw a fraction of what they are truly capable of.  Cam Newton being held to three rushing yards feels about as unlikely as Carson Palmer pulling a Kurt Warner (with Newton simultaneously combusting into Jake Delhomme). 

Prediction: Carolina 30, Arizona 13

           

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 NFC Championship, Chicago 39, New Orleans 14.  Cam is certainly better than Rex Grossman, but the Bears had the league’s most dominant defense and a bruising, effective running game.  They controlled the clock, wreaked havoc on the Saints’ offensive line, and took care of business one week after eliminating the defending NFC champion Seahawks.  On a side note, this is the last NFC Championship Game that was decided by more than 7 points.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Looking forward to a Super Bowl 38 rematch as much as I am? Let me know below! 

Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2015: Super Bowl XLIX

            If you were in Las Vegas last week and put money on Bill Nye, false fire alarms, and My Cousin Vinny as playing significant roles in the increasingly elaborate storyline leading up to this year’s Super Bowl, then congratulations – your prescience is so amazing that you probably don’t need a Super Bowl 49 preview column like this one to figure out which team will emerge victorious.  But for the rest of us mere mortals who predicted the Super Bowl 49 storylines would principally revolve around Pete Carroll’s rematch with Robert Craft, Brandon Browner’s rematch with the Legion of Boom, and whether the team of the 2010s is better than the team of the 2000s – you know, the normal kind of football storylines going into a championship game – then obviously you don’t understand the NFL, the National Fallacy League.

            It’s been 21 weeks since the opening week of the 2014 season, but it feels like it has been about 21 years.  Back then, in August, the biggest questions being asked by football fans were mostly “When will Johnny Football take over as starter for the Browns?” or “What team, if any, will pick up Michael Sam?” or “Can the league finally adopt a firm policy about concussions/pass interference calls/PATs?” Since then, the league has suffered tremendous public relations fiascos ranging from Ray Rice to Adrian Peterson to Ray McDonald to (yes, somewhat predictably) Johnny Manziel.  None of these situations has shed positive light on the tenure of Roger Goodell, who has come across as much corrupt and incompetent as staggeringly hypocritical.  Meanwhile, we’re stuck with two teams in the title game, one of which got caught illegally deflating footballs which, according to some, isn’t as uncommon an incidence in the NFL as actually getting caught doing it.  And while the other team may not have deflated footballs, they haven’t exactly been immune to bending the rules themselves. 

            It’s a dog-eat-world out there and as Jeremy Irons says in Margin Call, there are only three ways of making a living in the professional football business: Being first, being smarter, or cheating.  Let’s assume that the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are spectacularly guilty of the last two.  That only leaves being first (as in first place, not the way Irons actually means it in the movie, as in “first to liquidate all the firm’s shares en route to the systematic collapse of Wall Street.”)  As the defending champs, the Seahawks are still technically first.  The Patriots have finished first three times, but the last time they actually hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, George W. Bush had just won reelection, no one had ever heard of Kim Kardashian, Kanye West, Mark Zuckerberg or YouTube, and the city of New Orleans was intact and had a quarterback named Aaron Brooks.  Hell, the last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl, the most promising athletic hopes for the city of Seattle lay in the hands of the Rashard Lewis/Ray Allen-led Sonics.

            So we get the point: If the Patriots are old money, the Seahawks are nouveau riche.  If New England is East Egg, then Seattle is West Egg.  If Tom Brady is Cal Hockley in Titanic, then Russell Wilson is Jack Dawson (shout out to bros from Wisconsin!)  Shall we keep going?  In 1964, the New York Yankees, led by 32-year-old Mickey Mantle and 35-year-old Whitey Ford, were vying for their 10^th title in the Casey Stengel era, but lost to the upstart St. Louis Cardinals, a team led by 28-year-old Bob Gibson and 25-year-old Lou Brock – a team which would win two of the next four World Series.  The Yankees’ Golden era ended with that defeat.  In 1989, the Los Angeles Lakers were playing for their 6^th championship in the 1980s, but after the Bad Boy Pistons stunned them in a 4-0 series sweep, the Kareem/Magic Lakers dynasty collapsed, while Detroit won two straight titles.  From 1981 to 1996, the NFC won 16 straight Super Bowls; since John Elway’s shocking upset of Brett Favre’s Packers in Super Bowl 32, the NFC has gone 7-10.

            The problem with that analogy is that the Yankees, Lakers and the NFC did not experience a ten-year stretch without a title like the 2014 Patriots have.  That would mean that they would no longer be considered dynasties.  Therefore, can we all just agree right now that the Patriots are no longer a dynasty?  They certainly were in the era of Rodney Harrison, Ty Law, and Mike Vrabel.  But outside of Tom Brady, Big Vince, and Coach Belichick’s hoodies, there are no real remnants from those Super Bowl championships (whether we should have won somewhere between two and five Super Bowls since 2004 is another debate entirely.)  But at the same time, are we not being premature by declaring the Seahawks already this decade’s dynasty?  Sure they annihilated Peyton Manning in the playoffs last year, but so did Billy Volek and Jay Fiedler. 

            This is a long, roundabout way of saying one of two things: Either we’re overestimating the greatness of both of these teams since neither are technically dynasties at this point, or Super Bowl 49 will go a very long way in how the legacies of the Patriots and the Seahawks are remembered.  If the Patriots win, their title of the “Team of the 2000s” holds up to scrutiny (at least for now).  And if the Seahawks win, that signifies that the torch has been officially passed; at this point, they’ve pretty much owned every other NFL franchise/great quarterback since the beginning of the Carroll/DangerRuss era (with the exceptions of Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, and every team they actually have to go on the road to play).  If Tom Brady wins, he will join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings.  If Russell Wilson wins, he will join the immortal, illustrious company of such luminaries as Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jim Plunkett.

            (OK, OK.  I told myself I would limit my cheapshots directed at the Seahawks, but I couldn’t resist that one.  But hey, I just wrote three paragraphs essentially outlining why the Patriots are overrated in the public consciousness, so give me a break.)

            But in the midst of DeflateGate, there are other factors too.  If the Patriots win, people will remember the 2014 as one that should have an asterisk next to their name.  If the Pats lose, it will only reaffirm the notion that Belichick cannot win without cheating.  And the repercussions of DeflateGate aren’t too rosy for the Seahawks either; even if Seattle wins, their victory will be somewhat tarnished by the histrionics directed disproportionally at the Patriots in the weeks leading up to the game, inevitably adding an atypical “lack of focus” and “dysfunction” to how the Patriots will have played.  Meanwhile, Seattle fans should be very nervous when they recall the times overwhelming public scrutiny has drawn the ire of Belichick/Brady; after SpyGate in 2007, they were 39 seconds away from a 19-0 season, and after losing 41-14 to Kansas City this season, it was “on to Cincinnati” and a virtual resurrection of the 2007 team’s anger and relentless focus.

            As a Patriots fan and a Seahawks hater, this game represents everything.  If the Pats lose, there will be no worse feeling in the world – except maybe knowing that we’ve now lost three Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick era, while the Royals and Ducks just recently blew their most realistic shots at a title for the foreseeable future.  Yikes.  If the Patriots win, that’s great and wonderful and validates everything I love about this team.  But that I already know.  It’s like how psychologists say that it takes at least six positive experiences to outweigh the emotional damage of a single negative experience.  Being a sports fan, we all know it really takes more like twenty or thirty.

            I watch these teams a lot and know their strengths and weaknesses.  I am not a football coach, but their wins and losses have affected me in unusually impactful ways.  As someone originally from Oregon, I get real tired of answering the question of why I hate the Seahawks.  The answer?  I don’t really know.  I started hating them in the Holmgren/Kitna era (you can read a more detailed history from my Super Bowl preview from last year).  To me, they’re like the little brother that quietly gets everything he wants because he knows how to manipulate Mom and Dad.  “Oh, playing in the same division as John Elway and Rich Gannon is too tough?  Then let’s move you to the NFC West – at precisely the time the Rams and 49ers enter a dormant period.”  “Oh, you got hazed over in the Super Bowl because of bad officials?  Let’s give you an unbelievable stretch of luck, like this or this or getting a home playoff game with a 7-9 record and doing this.  Oh, we’ll also make sure you don’t get any more bad calls for many years to come, so everyone just turn the other cheek when this or this happens.”  “Don’t like playing on the road?  Let’s give you an endless supply of Microsoft money and make our stadium unreasonably difficult to play in.  Then all you have to do is win against heavyweights like Arizona and St. Louis!  And feel free to be total douchebags while you’re at it.” If you’re a Breaking Bad fan, the Seahawks are like Jesse Pinkman’s little brother in that one episode from the first season.

            Anyway, where was I?  Oh yes, I know these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses. The Patriots’ strengths are: Playing a ridiculously tough schedule (Denver, Baltimore, Indy twice, Green Bay, Detroit, San Diego, Kansas City, Buffalo twice, and Cincinnati – that’s 11 games against teams above .500 for those of you counting at home); playing virtually unstoppable offensive football since the debacle in Kansas City on September 29 (12-2 since then; the two losses being a five-point defeat at Lambeau and a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Bills without Brady, Edelman, or Gronk); the best secondary in the AFC; the best tight end in the history of football; and the best third-down offense I’ve ever seen in person. 

            The Seahawks’ strengths: Playing unreal defense down the stretch (39 points surrendered in their final six games); having the best rushing offense in the league (Beast Mode and Wilson combining for over 2,100 yards on the ground); playing an OK schedule (9 games versus above-.500 opponents, although a few of those games came against Ryan Lindley, Mark Sanchez, and injured Aaron Rodgers); finding ways to remain competitive in games even when their offense chooses to not show up (see the Dallas, San Diego, and Green Bay games); and being unbeatable at home – except, of course, to the one team that beat them at Qwest Field this year.  That’s right, the same team that missed advancing to Seattle by this much. 

            Both teams have similar weaknesses: When the opposing team controls the ball on the ground, converts key third downs, and when the offense is out of rhythm.  The Patriots are 12-0 when scoring 23 or more points; the Seahawks are 1-4 when allowing 24 or more points.  Seattle is 13-0 when allowing under 22 points; New England is 2-4 when they score less than 22. The Patriots’ offensive line has occasionally been a sore point during the season (as evidenced by the pitiful ground performance against the Ravens) while injuries to Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill have made the Seahawks interior defensive line vulnerable more than one time.  Both teams needed miraculous comeback performances this season that involved trickery and downright luck (the Patriots’ recovered fumbles vs. Baltimore, the Seahawks’ onside kick and two-point conversion vs. Green Bay).  It’s more than fair to say that the Seahawks haven’t seen an offense like the Patriots, while the Patriots haven’t seen a defense like the Seahawks. 

            In terms of player matchups: The key one will be Gronk versus Kam Chancellor, but what interests me more is how Seattle’s lengthy and physical secondary (with the questionable health of Sherman and Earl Thomas) will have to find ways to stop Brady’s near-nondefensible short seam routes to Edelman, Vereen, and Amendola.  This was a secondary engineered to stop Demaryius Thomas and Randall Cobb, not receivers like Edelman.  No, LaGarrette Blount probably won’t tear up Seattle like he did to Indianapolis, but we know that Belichick won’t hesitate from abandoning the run entirely, as he did against Baltimore (and as Mike McCarthy and too many other coaches did not against Seattle).  As for when the Seahawks have the ball, Lynch can certainly emulate the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Eddie Lacy and tear New England apart across the middle (in a game like this, Patriots fans undoubtedly miss Jerod Mayo).  This offense certainly has no problems moving the ball after halftime and when facing double-digit deficits.  But I suspect that Carroll will make no hesitations and be aggressive with Wilson, daring Revis and Browner to play safe in the secondary while he pulls the ball and scrambles downfield for big gains.  The responsibility of stopping Wilson will fall on the hands of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, and particularly Jamie Collins, whose speed and agility make him a formidable defensive threat.

            If there is a gameplan for the Patriots to imitate, it should be San Diego from the Chargers’ Week Two win over Seattle.  In that game, the Chargers didn’t overly commit to the run, while Rivers picked up key third downs and Antonio Gates assaulted the secondary for three touchdown receptions.  Lynch only had six carries, and San Diego controlled the ball for over 42 minutes.  I think the Patriots will opt for a more aggressive game plan – especially in light of the Packers’ epic meltdown as a result of being overly conservative – but ball control will be a key for New England, which worries me if the running game won’t be overly emphasized.

            And if there’s a game for the Seahawks to watch closely, the best example would be the Ravens from three weeks ago.  For the first 35 minutes of the game, Baltimore executed practically everything perfectly, with Justin Forsett having little difficulties gaining copious yards on the ground and Joe Flacco finding open receivers on long passes (and pass interference calls on his incompletions). We couldn’t move the ball on the ground, and even our passing game was unstoppable in the second half, we had to resort to trick plays and gimmicks.  We still could have blown that game in the final seconds.  But hey, the Seahawks were dead-to-rights with five minutes left in the NFC Championship.

            Well, let’s just get the obligatory drama out of the way: I’m picking the Patriots.  You know that.  The question is why.  Three central things stick out to me.  First, I genuinely believe the Patriots have played far better competition than the Seahawks this season.  The Seahawks played four good offenses all year –San Diego, Dallas, Denver, and Green Bay.  They lost to San Diego and Dallas, had to go to overtime to beat Denver at home, and we all know what happened against the Packers two weeks ago.  They looked vulnerable in all four the AFC games they played, while New England looked strong in its four NFC games (including its loss at Lambeau – the Packers' closest margin of victory at home all year). The AFC East was better than the NFC West (especially after Carson Palmer’s injury) and overall, the AFC was a stronger conference than the NFC.  Don’t believe me?  Look at the strength of schedule rankings.  The eight toughest schedules in the league all belonged to AFC teams, including New England (Seattle still ranked a respectable 14^th).

            Secondly, I think playing on the road is a considerably tougher challenge for Seattle than it is for New England – especially considering that University of Phoenix Stadium should be much more conducive to the offenses.  Sure, Seattle is the only team of the two to have won a game there this year; but once again, Ryan Lindley and Stepfan Taylor will sadly not be on the playing field this Sunday.  Of the 17 receiving touchdowns Seattle gave up during the regular season, 11 of them came to tight ends.  During the five games the Seahawks faced a top-10 tight end (by receiving yardage), that tight end averaged 13.6 yards per reception.  Seahawk fans can make a case that Bobby Wagner’s injury affected coverage in the middle of the field, but simply put, no one in the league has proven to successfully contain a healthy Rob Gronkowski.  If this game was to be played in snowy New York City (like last year’s Super Bowl should have been), there would be fewer concerns about offenses and moving the ball through the air.  Playing indoor football favors New England; however, that does not eradicate the respect this Seattle defense obviously commands.

            Finally, I think the Pats will emerge from the events of the past couple weeks with a renewed discipline, ferocity, and commitment to executing all phases of the game (if I’m sounding like Belichick, sorry).  As for the Seahawks, there is a reason why so few NFL teams have proven capable of repeating as champions.  Sure they’ve played hungry, agitated football for the last six months.  Sure, they have something to prove (and believe me, DangerRuss wants that maxed contract extension).  But for Tom Brady, the anger has lasted ten years, and in 2014, he was given everything he’s been missing the last decade: A spectacular secondary, a healthy Gronkowski, a core of reliable receivers, and a reshuffled offensive line that makes the offense look very 2007-ish at times.  When I saw that Vegas is favoring the Patriots by two points, I immediately felt sick to my stomach – I thought, “we’re giving two points to the defending champions in the very same stadium where we blew our perfect season seven years ago?”  But then I thought about all the adversity this Patriots team has faced all season – from those embarrassing losses to Miami and Kansas City, to losing Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo for the season, to that insane five-week stretch where we played the Broncos/Colts/Lions/Packers/Chargers, to being down 14 points at two different times in the Baltimore game.  Then I thought of the adversity of being called cheaters and liars by the media and former players, and everyone doubting our abilities on the field.  But then I remembered how Bill Belichick pulled a Mona Lisa Vito in his press conference, and basically kicked ass in front of all the haters by publicly defending his team.  And then I remembered that in 2014, we always overcame that adversity and ended up playing like the best team in football, which is fully the way I expect this team to play Sunday.  On to Seattle.

Prediction: Just as I predicted back in September... New England 31, Seattle 30. 

Prop Bets:

Covert gambling references made by Al Michaels +4.5

Total musical scales covered by Idina Menzel +6.5

Number of people who will think that Idina Menzel is Johnny Manziel's sister +7 million

Odds that John Travolta will introduce Adele Dahzin Idina Menzel: 1000 to 1 (hey, it is Roger Goodell's league we're talking about)

Odds that Gronk's favorite movie is Frozen: 3 to 1

Odds that Belichick's favorite movie is My Cousin Vinny: 2 to 1

Odds that Roger Goodell's favorite movie is Inglourious Basterds: Even.