Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2015: Super Bowl XLIX

            If you were in Las Vegas last week and put money on Bill Nye, false fire alarms, and My Cousin Vinny as playing significant roles in the increasingly elaborate storyline leading up to this year’s Super Bowl, then congratulations – your prescience is so amazing that you probably don’t need a Super Bowl 49 preview column like this one to figure out which team will emerge victorious.  But for the rest of us mere mortals who predicted the Super Bowl 49 storylines would principally revolve around Pete Carroll’s rematch with Robert Craft, Brandon Browner’s rematch with the Legion of Boom, and whether the team of the 2010s is better than the team of the 2000s – you know, the normal kind of football storylines going into a championship game – then obviously you don’t understand the NFL, the National Fallacy League.

            It’s been 21 weeks since the opening week of the 2014 season, but it feels like it has been about 21 years.  Back then, in August, the biggest questions being asked by football fans were mostly “When will Johnny Football take over as starter for the Browns?” or “What team, if any, will pick up Michael Sam?” or “Can the league finally adopt a firm policy about concussions/pass interference calls/PATs?” Since then, the league has suffered tremendous public relations fiascos ranging from Ray Rice to Adrian Peterson to Ray McDonald to (yes, somewhat predictably) Johnny Manziel.  None of these situations has shed positive light on the tenure of Roger Goodell, who has come across as much corrupt and incompetent as staggeringly hypocritical.  Meanwhile, we’re stuck with two teams in the title game, one of which got caught illegally deflating footballs which, according to some, isn’t as uncommon an incidence in the NFL as actually getting caught doing it.  And while the other team may not have deflated footballs, they haven’t exactly been immune to bending the rules themselves. 

            It’s a dog-eat-world out there and as Jeremy Irons says in Margin Call, there are only three ways of making a living in the professional football business: Being first, being smarter, or cheating.  Let’s assume that the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are spectacularly guilty of the last two.  That only leaves being first (as in first place, not the way Irons actually means it in the movie, as in “first to liquidate all the firm’s shares en route to the systematic collapse of Wall Street.”)  As the defending champs, the Seahawks are still technically first.  The Patriots have finished first three times, but the last time they actually hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, George W. Bush had just won reelection, no one had ever heard of Kim Kardashian, Kanye West, Mark Zuckerberg or YouTube, and the city of New Orleans was intact and had a quarterback named Aaron Brooks.  Hell, the last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl, the most promising athletic hopes for the city of Seattle lay in the hands of the Rashard Lewis/Ray Allen-led Sonics.

            So we get the point: If the Patriots are old money, the Seahawks are nouveau riche.  If New England is East Egg, then Seattle is West Egg.  If Tom Brady is Cal Hockley in Titanic, then Russell Wilson is Jack Dawson (shout out to bros from Wisconsin!)  Shall we keep going?  In 1964, the New York Yankees, led by 32-year-old Mickey Mantle and 35-year-old Whitey Ford, were vying for their 10^th title in the Casey Stengel era, but lost to the upstart St. Louis Cardinals, a team led by 28-year-old Bob Gibson and 25-year-old Lou Brock – a team which would win two of the next four World Series.  The Yankees’ Golden era ended with that defeat.  In 1989, the Los Angeles Lakers were playing for their 6^th championship in the 1980s, but after the Bad Boy Pistons stunned them in a 4-0 series sweep, the Kareem/Magic Lakers dynasty collapsed, while Detroit won two straight titles.  From 1981 to 1996, the NFC won 16 straight Super Bowls; since John Elway’s shocking upset of Brett Favre’s Packers in Super Bowl 32, the NFC has gone 7-10.

            The problem with that analogy is that the Yankees, Lakers and the NFC did not experience a ten-year stretch without a title like the 2014 Patriots have.  That would mean that they would no longer be considered dynasties.  Therefore, can we all just agree right now that the Patriots are no longer a dynasty?  They certainly were in the era of Rodney Harrison, Ty Law, and Mike Vrabel.  But outside of Tom Brady, Big Vince, and Coach Belichick’s hoodies, there are no real remnants from those Super Bowl championships (whether we should have won somewhere between two and five Super Bowls since 2004 is another debate entirely.)  But at the same time, are we not being premature by declaring the Seahawks already this decade’s dynasty?  Sure they annihilated Peyton Manning in the playoffs last year, but so did Billy Volek and Jay Fiedler. 

            This is a long, roundabout way of saying one of two things: Either we’re overestimating the greatness of both of these teams since neither are technically dynasties at this point, or Super Bowl 49 will go a very long way in how the legacies of the Patriots and the Seahawks are remembered.  If the Patriots win, their title of the “Team of the 2000s” holds up to scrutiny (at least for now).  And if the Seahawks win, that signifies that the torch has been officially passed; at this point, they’ve pretty much owned every other NFL franchise/great quarterback since the beginning of the Carroll/DangerRuss era (with the exceptions of Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, and every team they actually have to go on the road to play).  If Tom Brady wins, he will join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings.  If Russell Wilson wins, he will join the immortal, illustrious company of such luminaries as Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jim Plunkett.

            (OK, OK.  I told myself I would limit my cheapshots directed at the Seahawks, but I couldn’t resist that one.  But hey, I just wrote three paragraphs essentially outlining why the Patriots are overrated in the public consciousness, so give me a break.)

            But in the midst of DeflateGate, there are other factors too.  If the Patriots win, people will remember the 2014 as one that should have an asterisk next to their name.  If the Pats lose, it will only reaffirm the notion that Belichick cannot win without cheating.  And the repercussions of DeflateGate aren’t too rosy for the Seahawks either; even if Seattle wins, their victory will be somewhat tarnished by the histrionics directed disproportionally at the Patriots in the weeks leading up to the game, inevitably adding an atypical “lack of focus” and “dysfunction” to how the Patriots will have played.  Meanwhile, Seattle fans should be very nervous when they recall the times overwhelming public scrutiny has drawn the ire of Belichick/Brady; after SpyGate in 2007, they were 39 seconds away from a 19-0 season, and after losing 41-14 to Kansas City this season, it was “on to Cincinnati” and a virtual resurrection of the 2007 team’s anger and relentless focus.

            As a Patriots fan and a Seahawks hater, this game represents everything.  If the Pats lose, there will be no worse feeling in the world – except maybe knowing that we’ve now lost three Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick era, while the Royals and Ducks just recently blew their most realistic shots at a title for the foreseeable future.  Yikes.  If the Patriots win, that’s great and wonderful and validates everything I love about this team.  But that I already know.  It’s like how psychologists say that it takes at least six positive experiences to outweigh the emotional damage of a single negative experience.  Being a sports fan, we all know it really takes more like twenty or thirty.

            I watch these teams a lot and know their strengths and weaknesses.  I am not a football coach, but their wins and losses have affected me in unusually impactful ways.  As someone originally from Oregon, I get real tired of answering the question of why I hate the Seahawks.  The answer?  I don’t really know.  I started hating them in the Holmgren/Kitna era (you can read a more detailed history from my Super Bowl preview from last year).  To me, they’re like the little brother that quietly gets everything he wants because he knows how to manipulate Mom and Dad.  “Oh, playing in the same division as John Elway and Rich Gannon is too tough?  Then let’s move you to the NFC West – at precisely the time the Rams and 49ers enter a dormant period.”  “Oh, you got hazed over in the Super Bowl because of bad officials?  Let’s give you an unbelievable stretch of luck, like this or this or getting a home playoff game with a 7-9 record and doing this.  Oh, we’ll also make sure you don’t get any more bad calls for many years to come, so everyone just turn the other cheek when this or this happens.”  “Don’t like playing on the road?  Let’s give you an endless supply of Microsoft money and make our stadium unreasonably difficult to play in.  Then all you have to do is win against heavyweights like Arizona and St. Louis!  And feel free to be total douchebags while you’re at it.” If you’re a Breaking Bad fan, the Seahawks are like Jesse Pinkman’s little brother in that one episode from the first season.

            Anyway, where was I?  Oh yes, I know these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses. The Patriots’ strengths are: Playing a ridiculously tough schedule (Denver, Baltimore, Indy twice, Green Bay, Detroit, San Diego, Kansas City, Buffalo twice, and Cincinnati – that’s 11 games against teams above .500 for those of you counting at home); playing virtually unstoppable offensive football since the debacle in Kansas City on September 29 (12-2 since then; the two losses being a five-point defeat at Lambeau and a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Bills without Brady, Edelman, or Gronk); the best secondary in the AFC; the best tight end in the history of football; and the best third-down offense I’ve ever seen in person. 

            The Seahawks’ strengths: Playing unreal defense down the stretch (39 points surrendered in their final six games); having the best rushing offense in the league (Beast Mode and Wilson combining for over 2,100 yards on the ground); playing an OK schedule (9 games versus above-.500 opponents, although a few of those games came against Ryan Lindley, Mark Sanchez, and injured Aaron Rodgers); finding ways to remain competitive in games even when their offense chooses to not show up (see the Dallas, San Diego, and Green Bay games); and being unbeatable at home – except, of course, to the one team that beat them at Qwest Field this year.  That’s right, the same team that missed advancing to Seattle by this much. 

            Both teams have similar weaknesses: When the opposing team controls the ball on the ground, converts key third downs, and when the offense is out of rhythm.  The Patriots are 12-0 when scoring 23 or more points; the Seahawks are 1-4 when allowing 24 or more points.  Seattle is 13-0 when allowing under 22 points; New England is 2-4 when they score less than 22. The Patriots’ offensive line has occasionally been a sore point during the season (as evidenced by the pitiful ground performance against the Ravens) while injuries to Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill have made the Seahawks interior defensive line vulnerable more than one time.  Both teams needed miraculous comeback performances this season that involved trickery and downright luck (the Patriots’ recovered fumbles vs. Baltimore, the Seahawks’ onside kick and two-point conversion vs. Green Bay).  It’s more than fair to say that the Seahawks haven’t seen an offense like the Patriots, while the Patriots haven’t seen a defense like the Seahawks. 

            In terms of player matchups: The key one will be Gronk versus Kam Chancellor, but what interests me more is how Seattle’s lengthy and physical secondary (with the questionable health of Sherman and Earl Thomas) will have to find ways to stop Brady’s near-nondefensible short seam routes to Edelman, Vereen, and Amendola.  This was a secondary engineered to stop Demaryius Thomas and Randall Cobb, not receivers like Edelman.  No, LaGarrette Blount probably won’t tear up Seattle like he did to Indianapolis, but we know that Belichick won’t hesitate from abandoning the run entirely, as he did against Baltimore (and as Mike McCarthy and too many other coaches did not against Seattle).  As for when the Seahawks have the ball, Lynch can certainly emulate the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Eddie Lacy and tear New England apart across the middle (in a game like this, Patriots fans undoubtedly miss Jerod Mayo).  This offense certainly has no problems moving the ball after halftime and when facing double-digit deficits.  But I suspect that Carroll will make no hesitations and be aggressive with Wilson, daring Revis and Browner to play safe in the secondary while he pulls the ball and scrambles downfield for big gains.  The responsibility of stopping Wilson will fall on the hands of Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, and particularly Jamie Collins, whose speed and agility make him a formidable defensive threat.

            If there is a gameplan for the Patriots to imitate, it should be San Diego from the Chargers’ Week Two win over Seattle.  In that game, the Chargers didn’t overly commit to the run, while Rivers picked up key third downs and Antonio Gates assaulted the secondary for three touchdown receptions.  Lynch only had six carries, and San Diego controlled the ball for over 42 minutes.  I think the Patriots will opt for a more aggressive game plan – especially in light of the Packers’ epic meltdown as a result of being overly conservative – but ball control will be a key for New England, which worries me if the running game won’t be overly emphasized.

            And if there’s a game for the Seahawks to watch closely, the best example would be the Ravens from three weeks ago.  For the first 35 minutes of the game, Baltimore executed practically everything perfectly, with Justin Forsett having little difficulties gaining copious yards on the ground and Joe Flacco finding open receivers on long passes (and pass interference calls on his incompletions). We couldn’t move the ball on the ground, and even our passing game was unstoppable in the second half, we had to resort to trick plays and gimmicks.  We still could have blown that game in the final seconds.  But hey, the Seahawks were dead-to-rights with five minutes left in the NFC Championship.

            Well, let’s just get the obligatory drama out of the way: I’m picking the Patriots.  You know that.  The question is why.  Three central things stick out to me.  First, I genuinely believe the Patriots have played far better competition than the Seahawks this season.  The Seahawks played four good offenses all year –San Diego, Dallas, Denver, and Green Bay.  They lost to San Diego and Dallas, had to go to overtime to beat Denver at home, and we all know what happened against the Packers two weeks ago.  They looked vulnerable in all four the AFC games they played, while New England looked strong in its four NFC games (including its loss at Lambeau – the Packers' closest margin of victory at home all year). The AFC East was better than the NFC West (especially after Carson Palmer’s injury) and overall, the AFC was a stronger conference than the NFC.  Don’t believe me?  Look at the strength of schedule rankings.  The eight toughest schedules in the league all belonged to AFC teams, including New England (Seattle still ranked a respectable 14^th).

            Secondly, I think playing on the road is a considerably tougher challenge for Seattle than it is for New England – especially considering that University of Phoenix Stadium should be much more conducive to the offenses.  Sure, Seattle is the only team of the two to have won a game there this year; but once again, Ryan Lindley and Stepfan Taylor will sadly not be on the playing field this Sunday.  Of the 17 receiving touchdowns Seattle gave up during the regular season, 11 of them came to tight ends.  During the five games the Seahawks faced a top-10 tight end (by receiving yardage), that tight end averaged 13.6 yards per reception.  Seahawk fans can make a case that Bobby Wagner’s injury affected coverage in the middle of the field, but simply put, no one in the league has proven to successfully contain a healthy Rob Gronkowski.  If this game was to be played in snowy New York City (like last year’s Super Bowl should have been), there would be fewer concerns about offenses and moving the ball through the air.  Playing indoor football favors New England; however, that does not eradicate the respect this Seattle defense obviously commands.

            Finally, I think the Pats will emerge from the events of the past couple weeks with a renewed discipline, ferocity, and commitment to executing all phases of the game (if I’m sounding like Belichick, sorry).  As for the Seahawks, there is a reason why so few NFL teams have proven capable of repeating as champions.  Sure they’ve played hungry, agitated football for the last six months.  Sure, they have something to prove (and believe me, DangerRuss wants that maxed contract extension).  But for Tom Brady, the anger has lasted ten years, and in 2014, he was given everything he’s been missing the last decade: A spectacular secondary, a healthy Gronkowski, a core of reliable receivers, and a reshuffled offensive line that makes the offense look very 2007-ish at times.  When I saw that Vegas is favoring the Patriots by two points, I immediately felt sick to my stomach – I thought, “we’re giving two points to the defending champions in the very same stadium where we blew our perfect season seven years ago?”  But then I thought about all the adversity this Patriots team has faced all season – from those embarrassing losses to Miami and Kansas City, to losing Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo for the season, to that insane five-week stretch where we played the Broncos/Colts/Lions/Packers/Chargers, to being down 14 points at two different times in the Baltimore game.  Then I thought of the adversity of being called cheaters and liars by the media and former players, and everyone doubting our abilities on the field.  But then I remembered how Bill Belichick pulled a Mona Lisa Vito in his press conference, and basically kicked ass in front of all the haters by publicly defending his team.  And then I remembered that in 2014, we always overcame that adversity and ended up playing like the best team in football, which is fully the way I expect this team to play Sunday.  On to Seattle.

Prediction: Just as I predicted back in September... New England 31, Seattle 30. 

Prop Bets:

Covert gambling references made by Al Michaels +4.5

Total musical scales covered by Idina Menzel +6.5

Number of people who will think that Idina Menzel is Johnny Manziel's sister +7 million

Odds that John Travolta will introduce Adele Dahzin Idina Menzel: 1000 to 1 (hey, it is Roger Goodell's league we're talking about)

Odds that Gronk's favorite movie is Frozen: 3 to 1

Odds that Belichick's favorite movie is My Cousin Vinny: 2 to 1

Odds that Roger Goodell's favorite movie is Inglourious Basterds: Even.

2014 NFL Season Preview and Predictions

 

           The last time football was on, this happened (and so did this, this and a lot of this).  And in the months in between, the NFC West has opened up considerably (injuries to Sam Bradford, suspensions to most of the 49ers defensive roster, and Carson Palmer still quarterbacking the Cardinals) and the rest of the NFC doesn’t seem up for mustering much of a fight.  And even though I’ve hated the Seahawks for the majority of my life, I was able to channel my inner nonthreatening loveable mental patient and find some silver linings from the result: 1. I am no longer unfairly picking on a franchise with zero titles (excluding a botched Super Bowl appearance) in a wounded sports city; 2. Most of America already dislikes this team (sans the nonthreatening and loveable Russell Wilson); and 3. Didn’t this game put a nail in the coffin to all arguments about Brady vs. Manning? 

            (Wait a second . . . did Pete Carroll just unintentionally help preserve the Patriots’ legacy?  Jury remains out on that one.) 

            The Seahawks’ victory in Super Bowl 48 casts a lot of interesting questions heading into the 2014 NFL Season (besides whether legalized marijuana actually helps teams reach the Super Bowl – Josh Gordon wasn’t the only one wondering).  Can the Sea Chickens really become the first post-pre-Spygate-Patriots team to become a dynasty?  (Not as though anyone’s ever asked that question prematurely about a Super Bowl champ.)  Can the NFC West – a division with four legit Super Bowl contenders, as far as most are concerned – get one-tenth as much TV coverage as the NFC East – a division that hasn’t posted a 12-win team since 2008?  And most importantly, which games will need to be interrupted for breaking news on what Johnny Manziel is eating for lunch today?

            Actually, can we just make all TV sets simultaneously combust with the news that Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow are competing against Tony Romo for starting QB of the Dallas Cowboys . . . as well as the next boyfriend of V. Stiviano?

            Now that we got the exciting part of the article out of the way, let’s focus on what apparently 99% of the population cares significantly less about: Real football.  Last year, I predicted the Broncos to win the AFC (good) and the Falcons to win the NFC (very bad).  This year, in the immortal words of John Madden, I predict the Super Bowl to feature the AFC Champion facing off against the NFC Champion. 

           

AFC East

New England Patriots             12-4

Miami Dolphins*                    9-7

NY Jets                                   7-9

Buffalo Bills                           5-11

I’ve always shied away from predicting the Pats to win the Super Bowl for the fear of jinxing them, but with the potential of this year’s squad, I may have to break my own precedent.  Consider this for a second: In 2013, the only Patriots who didn’t lose time to major injuries were Brady, Belichick and Aaron Hernandez (rotting away in prison cell).  Just look at this.  Now remembering that the Pats’ offense went most of the year without Gronk, Vereen, Amendola, the rookie receivers and Stevan Ridley (rotting away on the bench because of fumbles), consider that they still somehow managed to finish 3^rd in points scored.  And remembering that the defense missed Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Tommy Kelly, they still managed to come up a game short of the Super Bowl.

Remembering how I have to manage expectations for my team, 12 wins feels like a solid number for a Patriots franchise that has won exactly 12 games each of the last two seasons.  And following them the way I do, I can predict where their four losses will come: At Minnesota (upset alert!), at Kansas City, at Indy and at San Diego.  I can also tell you who will miss significant games due to injury, but I’m holding myself to a 10,000-word limit.  But I am excited for Revis – unquestionably the Pats’ biggest offseason acquisition since nabbing Randy Moss in the summer of 2007 – and thankfully this division still stinks.  Apparently, no one in the New York or national media has watched Michael Vick since 2005 and the Bills are, well, the Bills.  I do like the Dolphins a little though.  While no one was looking last season, Ryan Tannehill threw for just under 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns, and Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are kind of like the off-label, cheaper brand of Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker (minus the steroids).  They get December home games against the Ravens, Vikings and Jets, and haven’t made the playoffs since 2008.  So sue me if I’m wrong.  But the AFC feels soft and one of these goofy teams needs to get the 6 seed.

          

        Crazy Prediction: Knowshon Moreno will be the primary RB for the Dolphins from October on, Chris Ivory will make Chris Johnson irrelevant in New York and Stevan Ridley will have the same total number of fumbles than Rob Gronkowski has healthy starts.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers                  12-4

Cincinnati Bengals                  9-7

Cleveland Browns                  6-10

Baltimore Ravens                    6-10

            Do I miss the Stealers making the playoffs?  Not really.  But it does feel weird not seeing them beat up on the Browns and Bengals in December en route to a first round bye?  A little.  Perhaps that is why the football gods have been especially benevolent to them in 2014 – take a look at their schedule (no Denver, no New England, no San Diego, no NFC West, New Orleans, Indy and New Orleans at home).  Also take a look at Pittsburgh's flight schedule.  As noted in my wins/losses column last month, Roethlisberger is in a contract year and suddenly their putrid running game looks rejuvenated with Le’Veon Bell, 2013 New England Patriots Playoff MVP LaGarrette Blount, and 2013 ESPN College Football Challenge MVP Dri Archer.  The Steelers have also had some excellent drafts recently, adding Ryan Shazier and should-have-been-a-Patriot Stephon Tuitt.  And of course, I’m always hoping for some reverse jinx factor here.  On the opposite side of Roethlisberger are Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco, each enjoying monster contracts which may or may not be totally justified.  The Ravens particularly seem to be headed for a collapse, with the Ray Rice scandal hanging over their head, Steve Smith entering his 14^th season, and a fading defense with huge expectations for C.J. Mosley.  The Bengals may take a step backwards with the loss of Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator and a depleted offensive line.

            Well, there’s your AFC North.  Oh wait, I forgot about the most exciting sports city in 2014: Cleveland!  Unfortunately, without Josh Gordon, the Browns are little more than a rookie QB, a career backup runningback who arguably missed more time than the guy he was backing up, and a rookie coach who learned under Rex Ryan and Doug Marrone.  The Browns have undeniable talent and an easy schedule and I hope the best for them – but the championship they win in the next 12 months probably won’t be coming on the gridiron.

            Crazy Prediction: Isn’t predicting the Ravens to finish last enough of a crazy prediction?  OK, OK, how about – the Bengals won’t win a game in December, the Steelers will start 7-0 and Johnny Manziel will be suspended from Instagram by Halloween.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts                   10-6

Houston Texans*                    10-6

Jacksonville Jaguars                6-10

Tennessee Titans                     4-12

            I felt a little more comfortable picking the Colts a few months ago, before their poor draft and the realization that, okay, they really are going with Trent Richardson as their starting runningback.  Like the Patriots, I’m not going to mess with recent history regarding their win total here – Andrew Luck alone is worth double digit wins each year.  I see Houston being the surprise here, winning the 2013 Chiefs award for “Quick turnaround with a new coach.”  Bill Simmons recently asked this question in a podcast: With Watt and Clowney at full strength, what team would actively look forward to playing the Texans?  The answer: No one.  As has also been covered by the excellent NFL staff at Grantland, the 2013 Texans were a bit of a fluke – lots of second half leads blown, lots of pick-6s and lots of bad special teams.  They don’t need spectacular QB play (remember that this is the franchise that won a playoff game with T.J. Yates at the helm), just more good health and better fortune.  They also don’t play a team with a winning record until October 9.  As for the irrelevant bottom-feeders, Blake Bortles is certainly a more capable quarterback than Blaine Gabbert (so are most women, children and disabled) and the Jags showed small signs of progress in the second half of last season.  As for the Titans this season, well . . . they can commemorate the 15 year anniversary of this. 

            Crazy Prediction: Bishop Sankey will be a bust for the Titans, Bill O’Brien will win Coach of the Year, and T.Y. Hilton will lead the AFC in receptions.

AFC West

Denver Broncos                      11-5

San Diego Chargers                9-7

Kansas City Chiefs                 8-8

Oakland Raiders                     4-12

            The AFC West isn’t as strong as its NFC counterpart, but it was the only division in football which boasted three playoff teams last season.  Denver gave up 399 points last year (22^nd in the league) and tried to fix its defensive lapses with the acquisitions of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.  I do not believe they will solve the problem; as the 1999-2003 St. Louis Rams taught us, when you have a prodigious offense which scores every minute, it takes a toll on the defense.  I also don’t feel as though Montee Ball will be an adequate replacement for Knowshon Moreno because his pass-blocking skills are underdeveloped.  Still, Peyton Manning is good for double-digit wins but I think the Colts and Patriots are catching up quickly.  A rematch with the Seahawks and the NFC West doesn’t help.  The Chiefs played horribly down the stretch last season (2-6, including the playoffs) and while they’re loaded with talent, many of their 11 wins last year were deceptive.  The Chargers are also difficult to predict (except when it comes to Philip Rivers and his boots in the month of December), but like the Broncos, their big offseason acquisitions (Brandon Flowers, who was last seen here) doesn’t exactly strike fear into its opponents.  And then there’s the Derek Carr-and-Maurice-Jones-Drew-led Raiders.  There’s talent sprinkled within the division (outside of Oakland that is) but with it comes frustrating inconsistency throughout.

            Crazy Prediction: Wes Welker will make jokes about Andy Reid’s wife’s feet, Knile Davis will be the best backup RB in football, and if the Chargers can somehow miraculously make the playoffs, they will win the AFC. And Peyton Manning will start doing promos for Little Caesar. 

NFC East (AKA America’s Division)

Washington Football Team     10-6

Philadelphia Eagles                 8-8

Dallas Cowboys                      8-8

New York Giants                    6-10

            Do I dare confess that the only reason I’m picking the Pigskins is because they host Dallas in Week 17 . . . and we all know what happens to the teams fortunate enough to play the Cowboys in Week 17 (see the 2011 Giants, 2012 Washington and 2013 Eagles).  I also feel like Washington is due for a strong rebound in 2014, with the excellent additions of DeSean Jackson, Ryan Clark and Lache Seastrunk and the recoveries of RGIII and Keenan Robinson.  The jury is out on Jay Gruden, but fans are rejoicing that the Mike Shanahan era is over.  Picking Dallas for 8 wins may seem like a stretch with the injuries to Sean Lee and Romo, but they always seem to make it to .500 somehow.  No way in hell that Nick Foles repeats his unbelievable 2013 numbers (27 passing TDs, 2 interceptions), although the same could be said of Eli Manning (27 interceptions) but at least historians will always wonder how the 2013 Giants managed to win seven games (hint: it may have had something to do with the division they play in).  Someone needs to break the news to Ben McAdoo that simply adopting a new-look offense doesn’t automatically fix your long-standing problems, such as having zero running game, a questionable offensive line and little depth.  Anyway, this is the least talented division in football and it mysteriously still gets the most national attention so let’s just stop talking about them before I start sounding like these guys.

            Crazy Prediction: Nick Foles will equal his total number of interceptions from 2013 in the first week, the Cowboys will score and give up exactly 475 points and Eli Manning will get injured, leading Tom Coughlin to call upon the arm (and belly) of Jared Lorenzen.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers                  12-4

Chicago Bears*                       9-7

Detroit Lions                           6-10

Minnesota Vikings                  4-12

           

            Picking Green Bay to win this division feels like a cop-out, but let’s remember last December when the rest of the NFC North showed that they couldn’t pick up the reins from Titletown even when Jim Varney-I mean-Aaron Rodgers was injured (Exhibit A and Exhibit B). The Pack finally have a legitimate threat on the ground for the first time since Ahman Green and although their defense still isn’t great (although Julius Peppers is an obvious improvement), it’s not like you really need the ’85 Bears to give Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler/Jay Cutler’s backup problems.  They also face only two playoff teams after October – and both matchups are at Lambeau Field.  The Bears have been an understandably trendy pick, but just because half your offensive roster gets picked in the first three rounds of most fantasy football drafts doesn’t necessarily translate to success on the field (ask the 2013 Atlanta Falcons).  Perhaps their offense will be just good enough to earn a six seed in an otherwise mostly untalented conference.  No one in their right mind should have any sort of confidence picking Jim Caldwell and the Lions and the Vikings would be wise to throw in the towel on this season and give Teddy Bridgewater valuable playing time. 

            Crazy Prediction: Jay Cutler will play an entire season for the Bears, Golden Tate will catch more touchdowns than Calvin Johnson, and Aaron Rodgers-Olivia Munn won’t last into 2015.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           10-6

New Orleans Saints*              9-7

Carolina Panthers                    7-9

Atlanta Falcons                       5-11

            Some, such as Chad Millman on his podcast, have proclaimed the Saints to be the team to beat in the NFC.  This in spite of the fact that: (A) Even five years after winning a Super Bowl and entering into the NFL’s “perennial playoff” category, they still haven’t proven to anyone they can win meaningful road games, (B) They didn’t upgrade their running game at all during the offseason and instead lost Darren Sproles, and (C) Until October 26, they only play two home games.  It’s nothing new to say that the Panthers will regress, although few have made the salient point that no team has ever (that’s right, EVER) won the NFC South in consecutive seasons; and the Falcons have a terrible running game, a terrible defensive line and a terrible secondary (although they did provide the best non-Manziel-related story of the offseason). That leaves . . . the Buccaneers who, if you haven’t noticed, tend to do well in seasons where no one really expects much of them (see 2005, 2007 and 2010).  The Bucs finished 2013 pretty strongly after a disastrous start and now find themselves with a proven head coach, two legitimate quarterbacks, and talent on both sides of the field.  They also face off against only three playoff teams from 2013 (none of them are Seattle).  They play the Saints at home in Week 17, where thee division title could come down to the wire.  Oh yeah, and they have sweet new-era unis – how have those been working out for the Seahawks again?

            Crazy Prediction: Mike Smith will be the first coach fired in 2014, the Panthers won’t actually be that bad, and Lovie Smith will win Coach of the Year.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks                    13-3

Arizona Cardinals                   8-8

San Francisco 49ers                7-9

St. Louis Rams                        6-10

            The easiest division to pick.  In fact, the Seahawks are so clearly the favorites in the NFC that you’d have to go back to the ’99 Rams to find another example of the NFC (or AFC) being so thoroughly dominated by one team.  Neurotic Seahawk fans like Todd will undoubtedly point to their tougher road schedule (complete with trips to San Diego, Carolina, Kansas City, and Philly).  But other than this, what substantive evidence can you possibly find to suggest this team will win fewer than 11 games?  Even with losses in all four of those games, 11 wins seems about right (remember they still get home games against Denver, Oakland, the Giants, and the Cowboys). When you have the league’s best secondary, best defensive line, best QB under 25 not named Luck, and best homefield advantage, winning starts to feel routine.  The only reason I even predict three losses is that I can’t imagine their starters playing Week 17 at home against the Rams (I would predict their other two losses to come in Kansas City and Washington). 

            As for the rest of the division – San Francisco feels like at this point they’re one Colin Kaepernick injury away from a top ten pick (along with quickly developing 1990s Buffalo Bills symptoms).  I guess Shaun Hill isn’t too much worse than Sam Bradford, but where he lacks is in Bradford’s upside potential for growth (I also don’t trust Zac Stacy’s 3.9 Y/C in 2013).  Also lacking in upward potential is Carson Palmer, who has six games against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams’ defenses. 

            Crazy Prediction: If Kaepernick gets injured and Blaine Gabbert comes in to back him up . . . and it’s during the Week 15 matchup in Seattle . . . with the playoffs on the line . . . well can’t you do the math?

2014 Playoff Predictions

Denver over Miami

Indianapolis over Houston

New England over Denver

Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

New England over Pittsburgh

Washington NFL Team over New Orleans

Tampa Bay over Chicago

Seattle over Washington NFL Team (since that’s who the Seahawks always play in January)

Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Seattle over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL XLIX PREDICTION: New England 31, Seattle 30 (I had to)

            What are your thoughts or disagreements?  Will you join us at Terry’s house in February for the Almost Sideways Super Bowl matchup of the century?  Let us know below!