Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2016: Super Bowl 50

In honor of the 50th anniversary of the nation's greatest sporting spectacle not on pay-per-view, here are 50 amazing facts about Super Bowl 50 (not Super Bowl L, you dummy):

1. The 2015 Broncos scored 355 points and allowed 296 points.  Amazingly, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points and allowed 296 points.  The 2015 Broncos went 12-4 and made the Super Bowl; the 1973 Broncos went 7-5-2 and missed the playoffs.

2. Just in case you forgot, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points in 14 games, while it took the 2015 Broncos 16 games to reach that mark.

3. In 2015, 39-year-old Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for 2,249 yards, 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 1973, 35-year-old Broncos QB Charley Johnson threw for 2,465 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Manning finished 27^th in the NFL in pass yards; Johnson finished 3^rd.

4. Between Manning and Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, the worst in the league.

5. Since 1990, 85 NFL teams have thrown 23 interceptions in a single season. Of those 85, only 11 made the playoffs. 

6. The combined playoff records of those previous 10 teams before the 2015 Broncos: 2-10.  None of those teams ever made it past the divisional round.

7. The 2015 Broncos committed 31 turnovers.  In the past 30 years, only one team (the 1999 Rams) committed 31 turnovers and won the Super Bowl. 

8. The Broncos joined the 4-12 Cowboys and 5-11 49ers in being the only teams in the league which never scored more than 31 points in a game all season.

9. In the last 25 years, every Super Bowl team has scored over 31 points during the season at least once.

10. Week 1, the Ravens had the football at the Denver 16 yard line with 36 seconds left.  Joe Flacco threw a pass to the end zone that was intercepted by Darian Stewart.  Denver won 19-13.

11. Week 2, the Chiefs led Denver by 7 with 40 seconds left.  The Broncos scored a touchdown, kicked off, and scored off a Jamaal Charles fumble at the 20 yard line.  Denver won 31-24.

12. In the fourth quarter of Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater completed 11 of 13 passes for 127 yards and Adrian Peterson ran for 47 yards and a touchdown.  Down by 3, the Vikings had the ball at their own 47 with 35 seconds left when Bridgewater was stripped-sacked.  Denver won 23-20.

13.  Week 6, the Raiders gained 139 yards in the fourth quarter (the Broncos gained only 30), but lost when David Carr’s pass was intercepted and returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Chris Harris.  Denver won 16-10.

14. Week 7, the Browns trailed the Broncos by 3 and had a first down at the Denver 11 with 1:47 left.  They kicked a field goal to tie the game.  Miraculously, they got the ball back in Denver territory with 53 seconds remaining, until Josh McCown threw an interception.  In overtime, they had a first down at the Denver 39.  The plays that followed: A run for a 3 yard loss, an 8-yard sack, a 2-yard sack, and a 5-yard delay of game penalty.  Denver won in overtime 26-23.

15. Week 11, the Bears trailed 17-9 and scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left.  The 2-point conversion failed.  The Broncos won 17-15 in a game where they punted 7 times.

16. Week 12, the Patriots led 21-7 in the fourth quarter and were getting the ball back.  Chris Harper, a backup signed off the practice squad, fumbled the punt return.  After Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski were knocked out of the game, the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime.

17.  Week 16, the Bengals, led by A.J. McCarron, had a 14-0 lead 29 minutes into the game before they collapsed in the second half.  Although the Broncos had a fumble and missed field goal in the fourth quarter, they still won 20-17 in overtime.

18.  Week 17, the 4-11 Chargers forced 5 turnovers and led by 3 points with 10 minutes left. San Diego scored only scored 10 points off the 5 Denver turnovers.  The Broncos won 27-20.

19.  In the AFC Divisional Round, the Steelers played without their top two runningbacks and its top wide receiver. Pittsburgh led by 4 in the fourth quarter and was driving in Denver territory until fourth-string runningback Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbled. The Broncos won 23-16 in a game where they didn’t score a touchdown in the first 57 minutes of play.

              

20. In the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had the ball inside the Denver 20 yard line on three separate drives. Denver punted 9 times and was outgained by 92 yards and 8 first downs.  The Broncos won 20-18.

21. Just to review, that’s 11 victories that Denver easily could have (and in many cases, deserved to have) blown.  Including the playoffs, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less – the most close wins ever by a Super Bowl team.  By contrast, the 2015 Giants and Ravens went a combined 8-15 in such games.

22. Combined record of Denver’s opponents away from home in 2015: 56-72.  The Broncos played only two games away from home against opponents with winning records: Kansas City (the Jamaal Charles fumble) and Pittsburgh (a game they lost 34-27).

23. Excluding playoffs, total first downs surrendered to home opponents: 118.  Total first downs surrendered to road opponents: 171.

24. The combined QB rating of the Broncos quarterbacks (76.3) was worse than the combined QB rating of all the quarterbacks Denver faced (78.8).  The other teams which fared the same (along with their records): Minnesota (11-5), Indianapolis (8-8), Philadelphia (7-9), St. Louis (7-9), New York Giants (6-10), Chicago (6-10), San Francisco (5-11), Baltimore (5-11), Jacksonville (5-11), Dallas (4-12), Tennessee (3-13), Cleveland (3-13).

25. The last quarterback to win a Super Bowl after a season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns?  Len Dawson in 1969.  Dawson was also the last QB to win a Super Bowl after throwing under 10 TDs for the season (min. 3 starts).  Yes, those last two stats include Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer.

26. The 2015 Panthers won 15 regular season games, only the 7^th such NFL team ever to do so. No 15-1 team has ever lost a Super Bowl.

27. Week 2, Carolina led Houston 24-10 with 7:00 remaining the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 24-17.

28. Week 3, Carolina led New Orleans 27-16 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 27-22.

29. Week 4, Carolina led Tampa Bay 37-17 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-23.

30. Week 8, Carolina led Indianapolis 23-6 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 26-23 in overtime.

31. Week 9, Carolina led Green Bay 37-14 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-29.

32. Week 11, Carolina led Washington 44-14 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 44-16.

33. Week 12, Carolina led Dallas 33-6 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Carolina won 33-14.

34. Week 16, Carolina led New York 35-21 with 6:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 38-35.

35. In the NFC Divisional Round, Carolina led Seattle 31-14 with 7:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 31-24. 

36. Considering all the meaningless fourth quarter points given up, it’s reasonable to say that of the 308 points Carolina surrendered on the season, 75 of them (24.4%) came in garbage time (this excludes the playoffs).

37. OK, OK, you Peyton apologists: Some of those games (such as Indianapolis, Green Bay, and New York) were admittedly not truly garbage time points because the opponent actually came back and put Carolina’s win at least temporarily in some degree of doubt.  But even if you take out those three games, that’s still 29 garbage time points on the season. Denver’s supposedly “vastly superior” defense gave up 296 total points in 2015; Carolina’s gave up 308.  Do the math.

38. Carolina gets an unfair reputation for playing an easy schedule.  In reality, they defeated Seattle twice, beat Arizona by 34 points, scored 37 points against the Packers, beat playoff teams in Washington and Houston, and defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving with a healthy Romo starting (but not finishing).

39. One more tidbit about Carolina’s unfairly-criticized schedule: Through the first eight weeks, the Panthers only won one game by 14 or more points.  In their ten games since then, they’ve had six victories by 14+ points. 

40. Carolina was 6-0 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs.  Three of those wins came on the road.  Denver went 5-1 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs, but all five of those wins were at home.  The sole loss (against Pittsburgh) came on the road.

41. This season, 23 defensive players had 4 or more interceptions.  Four of them were Panthers (Kurt Coleman, Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman).  By contrast, Denver’s leader in interceptions was Aqib Talib, with 3.

42. Carolina rushed for 144 yards against Seattle in the NFC Divisional Round.  That was the most rush yards allowed by the Seahawks’ defense in 27 games – since November 16, 2014, when they gave up 190 to the Chiefs. Going into the game, Russell Wilson had never faced a deficit larger than 21 points.  Carolina jumped out to a 31-point lead 24 minutes into the game.

43. Carolina’s 49-15 win over Arizona in the NFC Championship Game was, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 8^th most dominant single-game performance by a team in NFL history.  DVOA ranks it as the 2^nd most dominant playoff performance ever, behind San Francisco’s 44-3 walloping of the Giants in 1994.

44. That was Phil Simms’ final game as an NFL QB.  Sorry, just had to throw that in there.

45. One more thing regarding DVOA: According to the metric, Denver is coming off wins over the 7^th and 6^th best teams, respectively.  Carolina is coming off victories over the 1^st and 5^th ranked teams, respectively.

46. As a team, Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 31 consecutive games, dating back to Week 5 of 2014. Denver did go 5-2 in games allowing over 100 yards rushing this season, but all five of those wins were the bullshit-style wins aforementioned in #10-18 on this list.

47. Since December 1, 2014, the Panthers have gone 22-2.  They have a +31 turnover margin over that span.

48. Since December 1, 2014, Cam Newton and Steph Curry have combined for 136 wins, 24 losses, and one championship (for now).

49. Since 2011 (Cam’s first season on the Panthers), Carolina leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns win 90, ranks 3^rd in total rushing yards, 4^th in yards per rush, and 7^th in total wins – not bad for a team that has had only two winning seasons in five years. 

50. Cam Newton has thrown for over 340 yards only three times: His first (422 yards), second (432 yards), and fourth starts (374 yards) as an NFL quarterback.

All right, so that last fact doesn’t really supply a meaningful case for which team will win Super Bowl 50, but it’s still an amazing and quirky stat.  Cam’s most prolific passing days occurred when he was at his most raw and inexperienced.  How many other successful quarterbacks can you say that about?  By contrast, Peyton Manning’s greatest passing day (479 yards in a 2014 win over Arizona) came on his 244^th regular-season start, in the middle of his 16^th season.  And it’s the same case across the board: Tom Brady’s best passing day (517 yards) occurred on his 146^th game, Ben Roethlisberger’s (522 yards) on his 151^st game, and Eli Manning’s (510 yards) on his 123^rd.

Of course, Cam has a much smaller sample size (78 regular season and 5 playoff games) and his transformation into a (somewhat) more conventional pocket passer has been well-documented.  Whatever he did in the offseason prior to 2015 to elevate his game, it has worked; going into the season, he had a win-loss record under .500, only one playoff win (over Ryan Lindlay) and a lifetime QB rating of 85.2.  In 2015, he was the presumptive league MVP and it wasn’t even close.  But the (correct) question on everyone’s minds is: How will he perform on the game’s biggest stage against the league’s best defense?

Obviously, after reading those 50 facts, you should have some coherent idea about where I stand on this game.  But it’s also true that I tend to choose games with my heart rather than my brain; three weeks ago, right after the Steelers and Seahawks pulled out unbelievable wins at the last second, I was ready to send everything to hell and proclaim another disastrous Denver-Seattle Super Bowl.  But one week later, the Patriots restored my confidence and I thought they were a lock to beat Denver.  I purposefully overlooked Brady’s shaky record in Denver and Manning’s ability to play well at home in sunny weather after two months of rest and sustenance courtesy of Rocco and Gino.

            I have a rooting interest in this game and it is the Carolina Panthers, a franchise I’ve been rooting for since the days of Steve Beuerlein and Tim Biakabutuka.  I even felt a little sad after my team beat them in the Super Bowl 12 years ago and unless they were playing the Patriots or Saints, I can’t really remember any games I ever rooted against them.  So let’s forget about my heart (or my brain) for a second, and play a game of “worst-case scenario.”  Let’s try to imagine the hypothetical circumstances enabling the Broncos to win Super Bowl 50:

            First, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will have to dominate the Panthers’ offensive line, particularly on the outside, where tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers may be vulnerable.  Of course they had little difficulty doing that against the Patriots, but if they are able to beat the tackles, the Broncos’ pass rush also must cover the middle of the field in order to prevent plays like this from happening.  Denver was successful two weeks ago because Wade Phillips never blitzed, which is something they’ll have to continue to do in the Super Bowl since the Panthers have a quarterback who isn’t exactly intimidated by blitzes.

The Denver secondary will also have to eliminate downfield passes, which of course they were also very good at this season.  It’s not unthinkable to believe that Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and T.J. Ward can capably cover the likes of Greg Olson, Philly Brown, and Ted Ginn (who may not even require too much coverage due to his fairly egregious drop rate).  Forcing the Panthers into third-and-longs and eliminating long completions or scrambles is a great gameplan for the Broncos, and again, it’s not inconceivable that they could do this.  Denver was middle-of-the-pack when it came to picking off passes, but remember that the Broncos 14-1 (including the playoffs) when forcing at least one takeaway.

            The problem comes when you try to draw up a best-case scenario for the Denver offense.  It’s a given that Manning must be turnover-free and perhaps get some assistance from calls (or no calls) on the field.  The Broncos will need Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to have serious YAC (yards after catch) numbers, which could be possible if Manning targets the receiver not covered by Josh Norman; Robert McClain, filling in for an injured Peanut Tillman, has looked shaky at times this postseason.  Denver hasn’t been great running the ball in the last two games, but C.J. Anderson has broken off a couple of 30-yard runs which put the Broncos in field goal range in both games.  You have to wonder about the health of Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, and if Carolina opts to send a blitz against Manning, perhaps the offensive line can give him or Anderson enough time to burn the linebackers. 

            The issue is that even if the Broncos play well on offense, they probably won’t score more than 20-24 points.  Defenses know that Manning cannot throw the ball more than 15 yards or escape from pressure, and they also know that the Broncos’ conservative gameplan calls more for clock management and field position than explosiveness.  The best case scenario for the Broncos is that they take an early lead, preferably 7-0 or 10-0.  This eliminates pressure to pick up yardage and can enable Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to run out the clock.  Denver’s special teams have quietly been strong too, so keeping the Panthers inside their own 20 yard line (like they did so often against the Patriots) will be of paramount importance.  If the Broncos make it a game of field position, eliminate Cam’s comfort in the pocket, and benefit from some timely magic from the Sheriff, they can win the game.  They’re certainly the healthier team, the more experienced team, and just beat two quarterbacks who combined for six titles.  And let’s not forget who’s announcing.

            Writing this, it admittedly makes me feel a little uneasy about the “surefire” prediction that Carolina will beat Denver.  Haven’t we seen the Broncos execute this exact gameplan all season?  After all, as the 2003-2004 Patriots famously demonstrated, winning games in the clutch is a more important skill than winning blowouts.  But after thinking about it, there are three main reasons I still like the Panthers:

            1. Denver hasn’t faced a quarterback like Cam Newton all season.  In fact, the best rushing quarterbacks they squared off against were Andrew Luck and Alex Smith – in games the Broncos both lost.  On top of this, it’s virtually impossible to gameplan against Cam Newton because (recalling stat #47) no one in the league has figured him out.  Even if you take out his top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin), give him an oft-injured, second-tier runningback (Jonathan Stewart) and a very average offensive line (with Michael Oher, for god’s sake), he still puts up a 17-1 league MVP season.  That kind of transcendent skill is impossible to prepare for and contain.

            2. I trust Carolina in a neutral site more than Denver.  No one talks about the air pressure in Denver, which certainly had an effect on players like Gronkowski two weeks ago.  It takes the wind out of opponents, and extends the kicking game, which favors a defensive-oriented team like the Broncos.  Denver is coming off four straight home games where their average margin of victory was 4.75 points.  Their most impressive road wins were at Detroit Week 3 and at San Diego Week 13.  The Panthers weren’t exactly great away from home either, but did win in Seattle, New Orleans, and New York (all of which, the last I saw, were more impressive than Detroit or San Diego).  The NFC was tougher than the AFC, and I believe that being away from home impairs the Broncos more so than the Panthers (fact #22 really sticks out here).

            3. Denver’s style of play fits right into Carolina’s hands.  Manning turns over the ball a lot; the Panthers are the league’s best team at takeaways.  Denver eliminates deep passes and pressures the QB; the Panthers are a run-first offense (not exactly the strengths of Pittsburgh and New England) and Cam Newton is the best in the league at avoiding pressure.  In close games, Denver controls the clock and slows the pace down; in 6 of the 8 quarters they’ve played this postseason, Carolina has done the same thing, except with double-digit leads.  Even if you want to concede that Denver’s defense is the best in football, you also have to say that Carolina’s offense is the best.  And if you want to say that Carolina’s defense is one of the best in football, you have to also admit that Denver’s offense . . . well, isn’t.

            Teams that finished the season ranked #1 in total defense are 9-2 in Super Bowls.  Defense wins championships more so than offenses, sure.  But for Denver to win the game, Carolina is going to have to make mistakes – mistakes like missing an extra point or having your fourth-string runningback fumble or turning the ball away with seconds remaining.  Could Carolina make these devastating mistakes?  I mean, if Russell Wilson can, anyone can.  But unlike the Patriots last year, the way this Denver team wins games necessitates that such mistakes are made.  So maybe Cam Newton fumbles at the goal-line in the fourth quarter?  Maybe Graham Gano misses a 25-yard field goal?  Maybe Josh Norman has a chance to pick off Peyton Manning’s game-winning pass, but it slips through his hands?  All of those scenarios are in the cards.  But if the game is played 100 times, how often do each of those events happen?  Once?  Twice?  That still leaves 96 or 97 other scenarios.  At first I thought picking Carolina was going with my heart, but it actually seems fairly clear that it’s really going with my head.

Prediction: Carolina 37, Denver 13.

Doppelganger: Do we really have to look that far?

Special Prop Bets:

Odds that Jim Nantz’s and Peyton Manning’s shared agent will make an appearance in the booth: 3/1

Odds that Rocco and Gino will hold a “friendly one-on-one” with Nantz and Simms before the game to avoid any mention of you-know-what-banned-substance: 4/1

Odds that such a meeting isn’t necessary because they weren’t going to bring it up anyway: No bet.

Odds that representatives from Papa Johns and Nationwide will personally hand the Lombardi trophy to Peyton Manning: 5/1

Odds that Simms, Roger Goodell and Eli Manning will actually be wearing pom-poms and giggling with each other about going steady with the leader of the pack: 7/2

Odds that Nantz and Simms introduce Manning by humming “Great-est-QB-of-all-time” to the annoying “Nationwide” theme: 6/5

Odds that I will copy-paste this column and the 2013 Super Bowl preview when Newton’s Panthers and Manning’s LA Rams meet in next year’s NFC Championship Game: Even. 

2014 NFL Recap: Ten Pre-Season Predictions Nobody Made

Another NFL regular season is in the books, and we await another playoff run that looks fairly familiar.  The NFC is led by the Aaron Rodgers's Packers and the defending champion Seahawks.  The AFC is led by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning yet again, which appears destined for yet another AFC Championship showdown in Foxboro.  However, just like every season there were some great surprises throughout the season that no one could see coming.  So here are the ten pre-season predictions that no one made that actually ended up coming true.

10.  Tony Romo would get better in December instead of his usual collapse, leading one of the hottest teams into the playoffs.  Tony Romo has been made famous (or rather infamous) by the media for his epic collapses in the month of December, ruining any chances the Cowboys have at the playoffs every year.  This season the Cowboys started much stronger than usual, highlighted by earning the only win by a road team in Seattle (which happened to be where his late season woes started with a fumbled field goal snap).  However, everyone was waiting for Romo to go through his typical slump in December that could potentially cause the Cowboys their playoff spot again, and potentially cost Jason Garrett his job.  This year was different.  Romo got stronger, and led the team into the playoffs as division champ and many people's favorite pick to take the whole NFC.  Now the Romo collapse still might come in the playoffs, but he has avoided it so far.

9.  A Nebraska alum playing for the Detroit Lions would be suspended for stomping on an opposing player, and his name wouldn't be Ndomukong Suh.  The All Pro defensive tackle has been known as one of the NFL's bad boys ever since he entered the league out of Nebraska.  He has even been suspended in the past for stomping on an opposing player during a game.  So if a Nebraska alum playing for the Lions was going to get suspended for this same act, it would make sense that it would once again be a man named Suh, right?  Enter Dominic Raiola.  Raiola has been the starting center for the Lions for the last decade, and it would be this former Cornhusker that would be penalized for stupidity.  Now this doesn't mean Suh didn't try in the last game against the Packers...

8.  The Buffalo Bills would finish 9-7 led by Kyle Orton.  Last year, EJ Manuel was selected in the first round to be the quarterback of the future for the Buffalo Bills.  If they were going to make any strides in his sophomore year, Manuel was going to be the one leading the charge, right?  Enter Kyle Orton.  Orton was brought in to be a veteran mentor for Manuel, but after another slow start from their future of the franchise, coach Doug Marrone chose to switch gears to Orton.  This may have just been planned to be a short term solution to try and stabilize the offense, but then the team went on a run Buffalo hasn't seen in a decade.  With their two star running backs hurt, Orton led the Bills to their first winning season since 2004.  Although they fell short of the playoffs, the team made great strides forward, and it was Orton, not Manuel, that made it happen.

7.  The Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals would each play 4 quarterbacks throughout the season and both finish over .500.  Usually instability at the quarterback position leads to struggles as a team.  However, two teams this year defied those odds.  The Texans started the year with the Amish Rifle, Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He got off to a strong start, but was eventually benched for recently acquired Ryan Mallett.  Then Mallett got hurt, and Fitzpatrick came back in.  Then Fitzpatrick got hurt, and rookie Tom Savage was forced into action.  Not wanting to trust their season to a 4th round rookie developmental project, they signed Case Keenum, who unsuccessfully started games for them last year, off the Rams' practice squad.  Still, behind their defense and adequate quarterback play, they were able to finish 9-7 and one win away from the playoffs.

The Cardinals started the year hot with Carson Palmer at quarterback.  The game after he received a big contract extension, he had a season-ending injury.  Drew Stanton, one of the more respected backups in the league, was brought in.  Then he got hurt, which forced rookie Logan Thomas into action.  Not wanting to trust their season to a 4th round rookie developmental project, they signed Ryan Lindley, who unsuccessfully started games for them last year, off the Chargers' practice squad.  Still, behind their defense and adequate quarterback play, they were able to finish 11-5 and earn a Wild Card berth in the playoffs (although no one has much confidence in their chances).  Wow, those stories sound scarily similar.

6.  Super Bowl hero Percy Harvin would be traded away before mid-season, and the Seahawks would still be the #1 seed in the NFC.  In a move that shocked everyone around the league, only a year and a half after acquiring him, the Seahawks traded away the explosive Percy Harvin, citing team chemistry concerns.  Without Percy Harvin, the Seahawks wouldn't be able to repeat the success they had last year, right?  Enter Russell Wilson.  Wilson has continued to develop into a potential MVP candidate this year, leading the Hawks offense to scoring enough points to win with their dominant defense.  And Percy Harvin?  He was traded to the dumpster-fire that is the New York Jets and became what every offensive weapon for the Jets becomes: irrelevant.

5.  Two of the most productive and respected running backs of the last 5 years, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, would be suspended for the season for off-the-field issues.  The NFL has a problem with the law.  This is not a new concept, and Commissioner Roger Goddell is doing everything he can to control it.  The problem continued this year, but the surprise was who it involved.  Before this season, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson were considered by many as two of the league's "nice guys."  No one could have predicted by the end of the season that these two high-character players would be suspended for the season for domestic violence cases.  They went from being the faces of their respective franchises to potentially never playing in the league again.

4.  The Washington Redskins will end the season with Colt McCoy as their most successful quarterback.  There were high expectations coming into the season for the Washington football franchise with offensive mastermind Jay Gruden taking over as coach.  He would be able to get RGIII back on track, right?  Well, after an early-season injury, RGIII was benched for Kirk Cousins, widely thought of as the best backup in the league.  After some struggles and an injury, Coach Gruden turned to all he had left, Colt McCoy.  With McCoy, he finally found some success as the team finally looked to be clicking.  If it wasn't for another injury, he would have been the starter for the rest of the year over his high-profile teammates.  McCoy ended the season with a QB rating 10 points higher than Griffin and Cousins, who both finished with the same rating.  Heading into the offseason, McCoy might be the quarterback most likely to be on the roster next year.

3.  The NFC South would be won with a losing record.  There are many stats with this division that no one could have predicted.  First, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earn the first pick in the draft with two of the best receivers in the league, a new coach, and a big offseason quarterback signing.  Next, the New Orleans Saints would miss the playoffs losing 5 straight games in the Superdome, thought to be one of the best home-field advantages in the league.  The Atlanta Falcons would finish with a 5-1 record in the division, but miss the playoffs with an overall 6-10 record.  They only won one game outside of their division!  And last, the Carolina Panthers would win the division with a 7-8-1 record, with Cam Newton missing a late season game due to injuries sustained in a mid-day car accident.  The league really has to get rid of the tie...

2.  The rookie quarterback with the most passing yards for the Cleveland Browns would be Connor Shaw.  Coming into this season, one of the biggest stories was the potential impact Johnny Manziel would have on the Cleveland Browns and the league in general.  The first slight surprise of the year was that Brian Hoyer beat out Johnny Football for the starting job in Cleveland.  Manziel would be in eventually though, right?  Well, behind Hoyer the Browns had a decent amount of success with Johnny seeing a couple plays here and there.  Near the end of the year, as the Brady-Backup Magic started to wear off of Hoyer, they decided to give Manziel a chance in Week 16.  In his first career start, Johnny Manziel proved to indeed to be too small for the NFL as he was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter.  Then Hoyer was injured later in the game.  Enter undrafted rookie Connor Shaw.  Shaw was signed off the practice squad to start Week 17 for lack of a better option.  Not only are these two rookies now tied in starts made in their career, but the efficient Connor Shaw, in that one game, earned more passing yards than the first rounder Manziel had in the other 15 games combined.  Who knows what the future of Manziel will be past this year, but no one would have thought the Connor Shaw star would shine brighter than the Johnny Football star for the Browns this year.

1.  The Kansas City Chiefs would not throw a touchdown pass to a receiver all season.  This has to be one of the most bizarre stats I have ever seen.  Alex Smith has always been considered a game manager, but the thought that no receiver caught a pass in the end zone all year is just ridiculous.  Now some touchdown passes were thrown to running backs and tight ends, but the only position whose primary job is to catch the ball never reached the end zone.  Maybe even more ridiculous is the fact that entering Week 17, the Chiefs still had an opportunity to make the playoffs.  They did their part, but didn't get the help they needed from other teams.  At one point, with Chase Daniel behind center, I thought the streak would end as Dwayne Bowe dove for the goal line, but he fumbled into the end zone.  With the recovery by Travis Kelce, the Chiefs got the touchdown and kept the streak in tact.  In a league where stat lines are looking more like video game numbers, where passing records seem to be broken every year, you can be sure something like this will not happen again for a long time.  However, I never thought it would happen this year, which is what puts this as the top prediction nobody made.

What do you think?  Any omissions?  Did anybody see any of these things coming?

2014 NFL Season Preview and Predictions

 

           The last time football was on, this happened (and so did this, this and a lot of this).  And in the months in between, the NFC West has opened up considerably (injuries to Sam Bradford, suspensions to most of the 49ers defensive roster, and Carson Palmer still quarterbacking the Cardinals) and the rest of the NFC doesn’t seem up for mustering much of a fight.  And even though I’ve hated the Seahawks for the majority of my life, I was able to channel my inner nonthreatening loveable mental patient and find some silver linings from the result: 1. I am no longer unfairly picking on a franchise with zero titles (excluding a botched Super Bowl appearance) in a wounded sports city; 2. Most of America already dislikes this team (sans the nonthreatening and loveable Russell Wilson); and 3. Didn’t this game put a nail in the coffin to all arguments about Brady vs. Manning? 

            (Wait a second . . . did Pete Carroll just unintentionally help preserve the Patriots’ legacy?  Jury remains out on that one.) 

            The Seahawks’ victory in Super Bowl 48 casts a lot of interesting questions heading into the 2014 NFL Season (besides whether legalized marijuana actually helps teams reach the Super Bowl – Josh Gordon wasn’t the only one wondering).  Can the Sea Chickens really become the first post-pre-Spygate-Patriots team to become a dynasty?  (Not as though anyone’s ever asked that question prematurely about a Super Bowl champ.)  Can the NFC West – a division with four legit Super Bowl contenders, as far as most are concerned – get one-tenth as much TV coverage as the NFC East – a division that hasn’t posted a 12-win team since 2008?  And most importantly, which games will need to be interrupted for breaking news on what Johnny Manziel is eating for lunch today?

            Actually, can we just make all TV sets simultaneously combust with the news that Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow are competing against Tony Romo for starting QB of the Dallas Cowboys . . . as well as the next boyfriend of V. Stiviano?

            Now that we got the exciting part of the article out of the way, let’s focus on what apparently 99% of the population cares significantly less about: Real football.  Last year, I predicted the Broncos to win the AFC (good) and the Falcons to win the NFC (very bad).  This year, in the immortal words of John Madden, I predict the Super Bowl to feature the AFC Champion facing off against the NFC Champion. 

           

AFC East

New England Patriots             12-4

Miami Dolphins*                    9-7

NY Jets                                   7-9

Buffalo Bills                           5-11

I’ve always shied away from predicting the Pats to win the Super Bowl for the fear of jinxing them, but with the potential of this year’s squad, I may have to break my own precedent.  Consider this for a second: In 2013, the only Patriots who didn’t lose time to major injuries were Brady, Belichick and Aaron Hernandez (rotting away in prison cell).  Just look at this.  Now remembering that the Pats’ offense went most of the year without Gronk, Vereen, Amendola, the rookie receivers and Stevan Ridley (rotting away on the bench because of fumbles), consider that they still somehow managed to finish 3^rd in points scored.  And remembering that the defense missed Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Tommy Kelly, they still managed to come up a game short of the Super Bowl.

Remembering how I have to manage expectations for my team, 12 wins feels like a solid number for a Patriots franchise that has won exactly 12 games each of the last two seasons.  And following them the way I do, I can predict where their four losses will come: At Minnesota (upset alert!), at Kansas City, at Indy and at San Diego.  I can also tell you who will miss significant games due to injury, but I’m holding myself to a 10,000-word limit.  But I am excited for Revis – unquestionably the Pats’ biggest offseason acquisition since nabbing Randy Moss in the summer of 2007 – and thankfully this division still stinks.  Apparently, no one in the New York or national media has watched Michael Vick since 2005 and the Bills are, well, the Bills.  I do like the Dolphins a little though.  While no one was looking last season, Ryan Tannehill threw for just under 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns, and Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are kind of like the off-label, cheaper brand of Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker (minus the steroids).  They get December home games against the Ravens, Vikings and Jets, and haven’t made the playoffs since 2008.  So sue me if I’m wrong.  But the AFC feels soft and one of these goofy teams needs to get the 6 seed.

          

        Crazy Prediction: Knowshon Moreno will be the primary RB for the Dolphins from October on, Chris Ivory will make Chris Johnson irrelevant in New York and Stevan Ridley will have the same total number of fumbles than Rob Gronkowski has healthy starts.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers                  12-4

Cincinnati Bengals                  9-7

Cleveland Browns                  6-10

Baltimore Ravens                    6-10

            Do I miss the Stealers making the playoffs?  Not really.  But it does feel weird not seeing them beat up on the Browns and Bengals in December en route to a first round bye?  A little.  Perhaps that is why the football gods have been especially benevolent to them in 2014 – take a look at their schedule (no Denver, no New England, no San Diego, no NFC West, New Orleans, Indy and New Orleans at home).  Also take a look at Pittsburgh's flight schedule.  As noted in my wins/losses column last month, Roethlisberger is in a contract year and suddenly their putrid running game looks rejuvenated with Le’Veon Bell, 2013 New England Patriots Playoff MVP LaGarrette Blount, and 2013 ESPN College Football Challenge MVP Dri Archer.  The Steelers have also had some excellent drafts recently, adding Ryan Shazier and should-have-been-a-Patriot Stephon Tuitt.  And of course, I’m always hoping for some reverse jinx factor here.  On the opposite side of Roethlisberger are Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco, each enjoying monster contracts which may or may not be totally justified.  The Ravens particularly seem to be headed for a collapse, with the Ray Rice scandal hanging over their head, Steve Smith entering his 14^th season, and a fading defense with huge expectations for C.J. Mosley.  The Bengals may take a step backwards with the loss of Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator and a depleted offensive line.

            Well, there’s your AFC North.  Oh wait, I forgot about the most exciting sports city in 2014: Cleveland!  Unfortunately, without Josh Gordon, the Browns are little more than a rookie QB, a career backup runningback who arguably missed more time than the guy he was backing up, and a rookie coach who learned under Rex Ryan and Doug Marrone.  The Browns have undeniable talent and an easy schedule and I hope the best for them – but the championship they win in the next 12 months probably won’t be coming on the gridiron.

            Crazy Prediction: Isn’t predicting the Ravens to finish last enough of a crazy prediction?  OK, OK, how about – the Bengals won’t win a game in December, the Steelers will start 7-0 and Johnny Manziel will be suspended from Instagram by Halloween.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts                   10-6

Houston Texans*                    10-6

Jacksonville Jaguars                6-10

Tennessee Titans                     4-12

            I felt a little more comfortable picking the Colts a few months ago, before their poor draft and the realization that, okay, they really are going with Trent Richardson as their starting runningback.  Like the Patriots, I’m not going to mess with recent history regarding their win total here – Andrew Luck alone is worth double digit wins each year.  I see Houston being the surprise here, winning the 2013 Chiefs award for “Quick turnaround with a new coach.”  Bill Simmons recently asked this question in a podcast: With Watt and Clowney at full strength, what team would actively look forward to playing the Texans?  The answer: No one.  As has also been covered by the excellent NFL staff at Grantland, the 2013 Texans were a bit of a fluke – lots of second half leads blown, lots of pick-6s and lots of bad special teams.  They don’t need spectacular QB play (remember that this is the franchise that won a playoff game with T.J. Yates at the helm), just more good health and better fortune.  They also don’t play a team with a winning record until October 9.  As for the irrelevant bottom-feeders, Blake Bortles is certainly a more capable quarterback than Blaine Gabbert (so are most women, children and disabled) and the Jags showed small signs of progress in the second half of last season.  As for the Titans this season, well . . . they can commemorate the 15 year anniversary of this. 

            Crazy Prediction: Bishop Sankey will be a bust for the Titans, Bill O’Brien will win Coach of the Year, and T.Y. Hilton will lead the AFC in receptions.

AFC West

Denver Broncos                      11-5

San Diego Chargers                9-7

Kansas City Chiefs                 8-8

Oakland Raiders                     4-12

            The AFC West isn’t as strong as its NFC counterpart, but it was the only division in football which boasted three playoff teams last season.  Denver gave up 399 points last year (22^nd in the league) and tried to fix its defensive lapses with the acquisitions of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.  I do not believe they will solve the problem; as the 1999-2003 St. Louis Rams taught us, when you have a prodigious offense which scores every minute, it takes a toll on the defense.  I also don’t feel as though Montee Ball will be an adequate replacement for Knowshon Moreno because his pass-blocking skills are underdeveloped.  Still, Peyton Manning is good for double-digit wins but I think the Colts and Patriots are catching up quickly.  A rematch with the Seahawks and the NFC West doesn’t help.  The Chiefs played horribly down the stretch last season (2-6, including the playoffs) and while they’re loaded with talent, many of their 11 wins last year were deceptive.  The Chargers are also difficult to predict (except when it comes to Philip Rivers and his boots in the month of December), but like the Broncos, their big offseason acquisitions (Brandon Flowers, who was last seen here) doesn’t exactly strike fear into its opponents.  And then there’s the Derek Carr-and-Maurice-Jones-Drew-led Raiders.  There’s talent sprinkled within the division (outside of Oakland that is) but with it comes frustrating inconsistency throughout.

            Crazy Prediction: Wes Welker will make jokes about Andy Reid’s wife’s feet, Knile Davis will be the best backup RB in football, and if the Chargers can somehow miraculously make the playoffs, they will win the AFC. And Peyton Manning will start doing promos for Little Caesar. 

NFC East (AKA America’s Division)

Washington Football Team     10-6

Philadelphia Eagles                 8-8

Dallas Cowboys                      8-8

New York Giants                    6-10

            Do I dare confess that the only reason I’m picking the Pigskins is because they host Dallas in Week 17 . . . and we all know what happens to the teams fortunate enough to play the Cowboys in Week 17 (see the 2011 Giants, 2012 Washington and 2013 Eagles).  I also feel like Washington is due for a strong rebound in 2014, with the excellent additions of DeSean Jackson, Ryan Clark and Lache Seastrunk and the recoveries of RGIII and Keenan Robinson.  The jury is out on Jay Gruden, but fans are rejoicing that the Mike Shanahan era is over.  Picking Dallas for 8 wins may seem like a stretch with the injuries to Sean Lee and Romo, but they always seem to make it to .500 somehow.  No way in hell that Nick Foles repeats his unbelievable 2013 numbers (27 passing TDs, 2 interceptions), although the same could be said of Eli Manning (27 interceptions) but at least historians will always wonder how the 2013 Giants managed to win seven games (hint: it may have had something to do with the division they play in).  Someone needs to break the news to Ben McAdoo that simply adopting a new-look offense doesn’t automatically fix your long-standing problems, such as having zero running game, a questionable offensive line and little depth.  Anyway, this is the least talented division in football and it mysteriously still gets the most national attention so let’s just stop talking about them before I start sounding like these guys.

            Crazy Prediction: Nick Foles will equal his total number of interceptions from 2013 in the first week, the Cowboys will score and give up exactly 475 points and Eli Manning will get injured, leading Tom Coughlin to call upon the arm (and belly) of Jared Lorenzen.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers                  12-4

Chicago Bears*                       9-7

Detroit Lions                           6-10

Minnesota Vikings                  4-12

           

            Picking Green Bay to win this division feels like a cop-out, but let’s remember last December when the rest of the NFC North showed that they couldn’t pick up the reins from Titletown even when Jim Varney-I mean-Aaron Rodgers was injured (Exhibit A and Exhibit B). The Pack finally have a legitimate threat on the ground for the first time since Ahman Green and although their defense still isn’t great (although Julius Peppers is an obvious improvement), it’s not like you really need the ’85 Bears to give Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler/Jay Cutler’s backup problems.  They also face only two playoff teams after October – and both matchups are at Lambeau Field.  The Bears have been an understandably trendy pick, but just because half your offensive roster gets picked in the first three rounds of most fantasy football drafts doesn’t necessarily translate to success on the field (ask the 2013 Atlanta Falcons).  Perhaps their offense will be just good enough to earn a six seed in an otherwise mostly untalented conference.  No one in their right mind should have any sort of confidence picking Jim Caldwell and the Lions and the Vikings would be wise to throw in the towel on this season and give Teddy Bridgewater valuable playing time. 

            Crazy Prediction: Jay Cutler will play an entire season for the Bears, Golden Tate will catch more touchdowns than Calvin Johnson, and Aaron Rodgers-Olivia Munn won’t last into 2015.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers           10-6

New Orleans Saints*              9-7

Carolina Panthers                    7-9

Atlanta Falcons                       5-11

            Some, such as Chad Millman on his podcast, have proclaimed the Saints to be the team to beat in the NFC.  This in spite of the fact that: (A) Even five years after winning a Super Bowl and entering into the NFL’s “perennial playoff” category, they still haven’t proven to anyone they can win meaningful road games, (B) They didn’t upgrade their running game at all during the offseason and instead lost Darren Sproles, and (C) Until October 26, they only play two home games.  It’s nothing new to say that the Panthers will regress, although few have made the salient point that no team has ever (that’s right, EVER) won the NFC South in consecutive seasons; and the Falcons have a terrible running game, a terrible defensive line and a terrible secondary (although they did provide the best non-Manziel-related story of the offseason). That leaves . . . the Buccaneers who, if you haven’t noticed, tend to do well in seasons where no one really expects much of them (see 2005, 2007 and 2010).  The Bucs finished 2013 pretty strongly after a disastrous start and now find themselves with a proven head coach, two legitimate quarterbacks, and talent on both sides of the field.  They also face off against only three playoff teams from 2013 (none of them are Seattle).  They play the Saints at home in Week 17, where thee division title could come down to the wire.  Oh yeah, and they have sweet new-era unis – how have those been working out for the Seahawks again?

            Crazy Prediction: Mike Smith will be the first coach fired in 2014, the Panthers won’t actually be that bad, and Lovie Smith will win Coach of the Year.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks                    13-3

Arizona Cardinals                   8-8

San Francisco 49ers                7-9

St. Louis Rams                        6-10

            The easiest division to pick.  In fact, the Seahawks are so clearly the favorites in the NFC that you’d have to go back to the ’99 Rams to find another example of the NFC (or AFC) being so thoroughly dominated by one team.  Neurotic Seahawk fans like Todd will undoubtedly point to their tougher road schedule (complete with trips to San Diego, Carolina, Kansas City, and Philly).  But other than this, what substantive evidence can you possibly find to suggest this team will win fewer than 11 games?  Even with losses in all four of those games, 11 wins seems about right (remember they still get home games against Denver, Oakland, the Giants, and the Cowboys). When you have the league’s best secondary, best defensive line, best QB under 25 not named Luck, and best homefield advantage, winning starts to feel routine.  The only reason I even predict three losses is that I can’t imagine their starters playing Week 17 at home against the Rams (I would predict their other two losses to come in Kansas City and Washington). 

            As for the rest of the division – San Francisco feels like at this point they’re one Colin Kaepernick injury away from a top ten pick (along with quickly developing 1990s Buffalo Bills symptoms).  I guess Shaun Hill isn’t too much worse than Sam Bradford, but where he lacks is in Bradford’s upside potential for growth (I also don’t trust Zac Stacy’s 3.9 Y/C in 2013).  Also lacking in upward potential is Carson Palmer, who has six games against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams’ defenses. 

            Crazy Prediction: If Kaepernick gets injured and Blaine Gabbert comes in to back him up . . . and it’s during the Week 15 matchup in Seattle . . . with the playoffs on the line . . . well can’t you do the math?

2014 Playoff Predictions

Denver over Miami

Indianapolis over Houston

New England over Denver

Pittsburgh over Indianapolis

New England over Pittsburgh

Washington NFL Team over New Orleans

Tampa Bay over Chicago

Seattle over Washington NFL Team (since that’s who the Seahawks always play in January)

Green Bay over Tampa Bay

Seattle over Green Bay

SUPER BOWL XLIX PREDICTION: New England 31, Seattle 30 (I had to)

            What are your thoughts or disagreements?  Will you join us at Terry’s house in February for the Almost Sideways Super Bowl matchup of the century?  Let us know below!