Power Rankings: Most Memorable Sports Moments from the First Half of 2016

As I am typing this, the ESPYS are taking place.  Of course, I am not watching them because I live on the West Coast, and we are getting them tape delayed.  Either way, the All Star Break and the ESPYS give a break from the sports world for a few days to look back upon the year so far.  So I decided to put together a list of the most memorable moments from the first half of 2016.  These moments are from January 1st-June 30th.  That means anything that has happened so far in July doesn't count.  So there will be no mention of the MLB All Star Game or Kevin Durant leaving Oklahoma City to punish the ownership for stealing him away from Seattle.  (That is really the reason he left ... he just hasn't said it yet.)  Anyways, here is the list.

Honorable Mentions

Laremy Tunsil Draft Day

This was possibly the weirdest story of the year.  Laremy Tunsil went from being a potential first pick in the NFL Draft to free falling down the board because of a leaked video, blackmail, and utter chaos.

Jordan Spieth Masters Collapse

Jordan Spieth is one of, if not the, best golfer in the world.  However, he has had better days than Sunday at the 2016 Masters.  Falling apart down the stretch cost him his second green jacket and handed little-known Danny Willett a win on a platter.

AFC Championship - Final Brady vs. Manning

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have faced off in countless classic battles.  With Peyton Manning retiring, the AFC Championship was the last of these matchups.

10.  Super Bowl 50 MVP Celebration

To celebrate the fiftieth Super Bowl, the NFL gathered every Super Bowl MVP ever for a special moment before the game.  Seeing a walk through history was a marvelous way to celebrate such a milestone in the biggest sports spectacle in the world.

9.  'Bama Wins Again

Number ten on this list was the first event on this list to take place.  The Crimson Tide won their 4th National Championship under Nick Saban with an unlikely team.  In an era where passing has dominated the game, Alabama made their run this year with a Heisman Trophy winning running back.  Their win over Clemson in the College Football Playoff Championship Game showed everyone why Nick Saban is on another level in college football.

8.  Dustin Johnson Wins the US Open

No one knows heartbreak in the game of golf quite like Dustin Johnson.  Since 2010, Johnson has given away several major opportunities.  At Pebble Beach in 2010, Dustin Johnson entered the final round of the US Open with a big lead.  He then shot an 82 and finished in 8th.  Then in the 2010 PGA Championship, he broke a rule he didn't even know existed that gave him a two stroke penalty that knocked him out of a playoff.  Then, just last year at the US Open, he 3-putted from 20 feet to lose to Jordan Spieth.  Making the first putt would have won the whole thing.  Making the second putt would have sent it to a playoff.  Then comes this year.  Just when it looks like Dustin Johnson is going to break through, it's announced that he might be slapped with another penalty after the round.  However, nothing was stopping Johnson on this day as he won by three strokes (which turned out to be two strokes after the bogus penalty).  However, it was great to see such a great player finally win the big one.

7.  NBA Slam Dunk Contest

The Slam Dunk Contest has been the highlight of NBA All Star Weekend.  However, it also has been getting fairly stale.  It seems like every few years, you have seen just about everything you can see in a slam dunk.  Then came this year.  Zach Lavine won, but the battle between him and Aaron Gordon was an epic contest with excitement that the competition hasn't seen since Vince Carter.

6.  OJ Simpson: Made in America

The most unique sports moment on this list came in the form of a 5 part documentary about the rise and fall of OJ Simpson.  This fascinating look inside Simpson's playing career, popularity after football, personal life, murder trial, life after trial, and current prison sentence took the sports world by storm.  Everyone was talking about it as his story is really unparalleled in how high he rose, how far he fell, and how public the whole ordeal was.  It was by far the best of ESPN's documentary series, which is one of the few things ESPN is still good for.

5.  Golden State wins 73 games.

The Golden State Warriors finished their season in historic fashion, finishing 73-9.  This bested the Chicago Bulls top mark set during the reign of Michael Jordan.  This would be much higher on the list if Golden State had finished if off with a championship (but there will be more on that later).  Maybe they will do better next year with Kevin Durant taking his talents ... anywhere but OKC (okay, maybe that will be the last time I mention that).

4.  Peyton Goes Out on Top

It was only appropriate that Super Bowl 50 be won by one of the best quarterbacks in league history in his final game.  Peyton Manning may have played his worst season of his career (that even included him being benched for awhile), but when it came down to it, the Bronco defense allowed Peyton Manning to have the farewell he deserved.  I may not have been rooting for him that day, but it doesn't mean it won't go down in history as one of the greatest moments in NFL history.

3.  King James Wins One for Cleveland

What seemed impossible finally came true.  Cleveland hadn't won a championship since the 60's.  They had their shot when the hometown kid LeBron James was drafted by the Cavs, but then once again Cleveland's heart was broken when he took his talents to South Beach (much like Durant did to the poor, die-hard fans of all of 8 years in OKC).  Then he came home, ready to save the city.  He took them to the Finals in his first year back, but lost to the Warriors.  Then he took them back to the Finals this season, only to be met by the Warriors once again.  This time, the Warriors were coming off a record-setting, 73-win season.  It didn't look good.  Then, the Cavs went down 3-1.  The Warriors hadn't lost two in a row all season.  Then the Cavs beat them three in a row to win the championship.  The pure joy exploding out of LeBron James following their Game 7 win was a career-defining highlight.  Best stat of 2016: the regular season record holders for wins in all four major sports did not win the championship.

2.  The Death of Muhammad Ali

I was too young to really understand the true significance Muhammad Ali had on culture, but anybody that follows sports in any way knows who he is and that he was a big deal.  My first introduction to his greatness was at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta when he was picked out of all the potential candidates to light the Olympic torch.  When he died earlier this year, the overall public outcry of love for the former Cassius Clay, I understood just how important he was.  Only the special world icons get a live broadcast of their memorial service.  Not only was his memorial service live on TV, he was eulogized by Billy Crystal and former President Bill Clinton.  His life is one that will be remembered forever as he will always be the greatest of all time.

1.  Buzzer Beater for the Title

March Madness is possibly the greatest sporting event every year.  The excitement and unpredictability of every game in the bracket makes it the most must-see TV.  Usually, all the craziness and chaos happens in the early rounds.  However, this season had one of the best National Championship games in history.  It was a perfect matchup.  North Carolina is a program that always has some of the top talent in the country.  Villanova is a program that rarely gets the top talent but instead builds up a team.  North Carolina and Villanova battled back and forth all game.  When Marcus Paige hit an off-balance three with under 10 seconds left to tie the game, everyone thought it would go down as one of the greatest shots in history as the game seemed destined for overtime.  However, the game wasn't over.  Only seconds later, Kris Jenkins sunk a miracle three at the buzzer to win the game in the most exciting finish in a championship game since NC State and Jim Valvano.


We can only hope the rest of 2016 is just as exciting!

Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2016: Super Bowl 50

In honor of the 50th anniversary of the nation's greatest sporting spectacle not on pay-per-view, here are 50 amazing facts about Super Bowl 50 (not Super Bowl L, you dummy):

1. The 2015 Broncos scored 355 points and allowed 296 points.  Amazingly, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points and allowed 296 points.  The 2015 Broncos went 12-4 and made the Super Bowl; the 1973 Broncos went 7-5-2 and missed the playoffs.

2. Just in case you forgot, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points in 14 games, while it took the 2015 Broncos 16 games to reach that mark.

3. In 2015, 39-year-old Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for 2,249 yards, 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 1973, 35-year-old Broncos QB Charley Johnson threw for 2,465 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Manning finished 27^th in the NFL in pass yards; Johnson finished 3^rd.

4. Between Manning and Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, the worst in the league.

5. Since 1990, 85 NFL teams have thrown 23 interceptions in a single season. Of those 85, only 11 made the playoffs. 

6. The combined playoff records of those previous 10 teams before the 2015 Broncos: 2-10.  None of those teams ever made it past the divisional round.

7. The 2015 Broncos committed 31 turnovers.  In the past 30 years, only one team (the 1999 Rams) committed 31 turnovers and won the Super Bowl. 

8. The Broncos joined the 4-12 Cowboys and 5-11 49ers in being the only teams in the league which never scored more than 31 points in a game all season.

9. In the last 25 years, every Super Bowl team has scored over 31 points during the season at least once.

10. Week 1, the Ravens had the football at the Denver 16 yard line with 36 seconds left.  Joe Flacco threw a pass to the end zone that was intercepted by Darian Stewart.  Denver won 19-13.

11. Week 2, the Chiefs led Denver by 7 with 40 seconds left.  The Broncos scored a touchdown, kicked off, and scored off a Jamaal Charles fumble at the 20 yard line.  Denver won 31-24.

12. In the fourth quarter of Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater completed 11 of 13 passes for 127 yards and Adrian Peterson ran for 47 yards and a touchdown.  Down by 3, the Vikings had the ball at their own 47 with 35 seconds left when Bridgewater was stripped-sacked.  Denver won 23-20.

13.  Week 6, the Raiders gained 139 yards in the fourth quarter (the Broncos gained only 30), but lost when David Carr’s pass was intercepted and returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Chris Harris.  Denver won 16-10.

14. Week 7, the Browns trailed the Broncos by 3 and had a first down at the Denver 11 with 1:47 left.  They kicked a field goal to tie the game.  Miraculously, they got the ball back in Denver territory with 53 seconds remaining, until Josh McCown threw an interception.  In overtime, they had a first down at the Denver 39.  The plays that followed: A run for a 3 yard loss, an 8-yard sack, a 2-yard sack, and a 5-yard delay of game penalty.  Denver won in overtime 26-23.

15. Week 11, the Bears trailed 17-9 and scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left.  The 2-point conversion failed.  The Broncos won 17-15 in a game where they punted 7 times.

16. Week 12, the Patriots led 21-7 in the fourth quarter and were getting the ball back.  Chris Harper, a backup signed off the practice squad, fumbled the punt return.  After Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski were knocked out of the game, the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime.

17.  Week 16, the Bengals, led by A.J. McCarron, had a 14-0 lead 29 minutes into the game before they collapsed in the second half.  Although the Broncos had a fumble and missed field goal in the fourth quarter, they still won 20-17 in overtime.

18.  Week 17, the 4-11 Chargers forced 5 turnovers and led by 3 points with 10 minutes left. San Diego scored only scored 10 points off the 5 Denver turnovers.  The Broncos won 27-20.

19.  In the AFC Divisional Round, the Steelers played without their top two runningbacks and its top wide receiver. Pittsburgh led by 4 in the fourth quarter and was driving in Denver territory until fourth-string runningback Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbled. The Broncos won 23-16 in a game where they didn’t score a touchdown in the first 57 minutes of play.

              

20. In the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had the ball inside the Denver 20 yard line on three separate drives. Denver punted 9 times and was outgained by 92 yards and 8 first downs.  The Broncos won 20-18.

21. Just to review, that’s 11 victories that Denver easily could have (and in many cases, deserved to have) blown.  Including the playoffs, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less – the most close wins ever by a Super Bowl team.  By contrast, the 2015 Giants and Ravens went a combined 8-15 in such games.

22. Combined record of Denver’s opponents away from home in 2015: 56-72.  The Broncos played only two games away from home against opponents with winning records: Kansas City (the Jamaal Charles fumble) and Pittsburgh (a game they lost 34-27).

23. Excluding playoffs, total first downs surrendered to home opponents: 118.  Total first downs surrendered to road opponents: 171.

24. The combined QB rating of the Broncos quarterbacks (76.3) was worse than the combined QB rating of all the quarterbacks Denver faced (78.8).  The other teams which fared the same (along with their records): Minnesota (11-5), Indianapolis (8-8), Philadelphia (7-9), St. Louis (7-9), New York Giants (6-10), Chicago (6-10), San Francisco (5-11), Baltimore (5-11), Jacksonville (5-11), Dallas (4-12), Tennessee (3-13), Cleveland (3-13).

25. The last quarterback to win a Super Bowl after a season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns?  Len Dawson in 1969.  Dawson was also the last QB to win a Super Bowl after throwing under 10 TDs for the season (min. 3 starts).  Yes, those last two stats include Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer.

26. The 2015 Panthers won 15 regular season games, only the 7^th such NFL team ever to do so. No 15-1 team has ever lost a Super Bowl.

27. Week 2, Carolina led Houston 24-10 with 7:00 remaining the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 24-17.

28. Week 3, Carolina led New Orleans 27-16 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 27-22.

29. Week 4, Carolina led Tampa Bay 37-17 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-23.

30. Week 8, Carolina led Indianapolis 23-6 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 26-23 in overtime.

31. Week 9, Carolina led Green Bay 37-14 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-29.

32. Week 11, Carolina led Washington 44-14 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 44-16.

33. Week 12, Carolina led Dallas 33-6 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Carolina won 33-14.

34. Week 16, Carolina led New York 35-21 with 6:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 38-35.

35. In the NFC Divisional Round, Carolina led Seattle 31-14 with 7:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 31-24. 

36. Considering all the meaningless fourth quarter points given up, it’s reasonable to say that of the 308 points Carolina surrendered on the season, 75 of them (24.4%) came in garbage time (this excludes the playoffs).

37. OK, OK, you Peyton apologists: Some of those games (such as Indianapolis, Green Bay, and New York) were admittedly not truly garbage time points because the opponent actually came back and put Carolina’s win at least temporarily in some degree of doubt.  But even if you take out those three games, that’s still 29 garbage time points on the season. Denver’s supposedly “vastly superior” defense gave up 296 total points in 2015; Carolina’s gave up 308.  Do the math.

38. Carolina gets an unfair reputation for playing an easy schedule.  In reality, they defeated Seattle twice, beat Arizona by 34 points, scored 37 points against the Packers, beat playoff teams in Washington and Houston, and defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving with a healthy Romo starting (but not finishing).

39. One more tidbit about Carolina’s unfairly-criticized schedule: Through the first eight weeks, the Panthers only won one game by 14 or more points.  In their ten games since then, they’ve had six victories by 14+ points. 

40. Carolina was 6-0 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs.  Three of those wins came on the road.  Denver went 5-1 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs, but all five of those wins were at home.  The sole loss (against Pittsburgh) came on the road.

41. This season, 23 defensive players had 4 or more interceptions.  Four of them were Panthers (Kurt Coleman, Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman).  By contrast, Denver’s leader in interceptions was Aqib Talib, with 3.

42. Carolina rushed for 144 yards against Seattle in the NFC Divisional Round.  That was the most rush yards allowed by the Seahawks’ defense in 27 games – since November 16, 2014, when they gave up 190 to the Chiefs. Going into the game, Russell Wilson had never faced a deficit larger than 21 points.  Carolina jumped out to a 31-point lead 24 minutes into the game.

43. Carolina’s 49-15 win over Arizona in the NFC Championship Game was, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 8^th most dominant single-game performance by a team in NFL history.  DVOA ranks it as the 2^nd most dominant playoff performance ever, behind San Francisco’s 44-3 walloping of the Giants in 1994.

44. That was Phil Simms’ final game as an NFL QB.  Sorry, just had to throw that in there.

45. One more thing regarding DVOA: According to the metric, Denver is coming off wins over the 7^th and 6^th best teams, respectively.  Carolina is coming off victories over the 1^st and 5^th ranked teams, respectively.

46. As a team, Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 31 consecutive games, dating back to Week 5 of 2014. Denver did go 5-2 in games allowing over 100 yards rushing this season, but all five of those wins were the bullshit-style wins aforementioned in #10-18 on this list.

47. Since December 1, 2014, the Panthers have gone 22-2.  They have a +31 turnover margin over that span.

48. Since December 1, 2014, Cam Newton and Steph Curry have combined for 136 wins, 24 losses, and one championship (for now).

49. Since 2011 (Cam’s first season on the Panthers), Carolina leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns win 90, ranks 3^rd in total rushing yards, 4^th in yards per rush, and 7^th in total wins – not bad for a team that has had only two winning seasons in five years. 

50. Cam Newton has thrown for over 340 yards only three times: His first (422 yards), second (432 yards), and fourth starts (374 yards) as an NFL quarterback.

All right, so that last fact doesn’t really supply a meaningful case for which team will win Super Bowl 50, but it’s still an amazing and quirky stat.  Cam’s most prolific passing days occurred when he was at his most raw and inexperienced.  How many other successful quarterbacks can you say that about?  By contrast, Peyton Manning’s greatest passing day (479 yards in a 2014 win over Arizona) came on his 244^th regular-season start, in the middle of his 16^th season.  And it’s the same case across the board: Tom Brady’s best passing day (517 yards) occurred on his 146^th game, Ben Roethlisberger’s (522 yards) on his 151^st game, and Eli Manning’s (510 yards) on his 123^rd.

Of course, Cam has a much smaller sample size (78 regular season and 5 playoff games) and his transformation into a (somewhat) more conventional pocket passer has been well-documented.  Whatever he did in the offseason prior to 2015 to elevate his game, it has worked; going into the season, he had a win-loss record under .500, only one playoff win (over Ryan Lindlay) and a lifetime QB rating of 85.2.  In 2015, he was the presumptive league MVP and it wasn’t even close.  But the (correct) question on everyone’s minds is: How will he perform on the game’s biggest stage against the league’s best defense?

Obviously, after reading those 50 facts, you should have some coherent idea about where I stand on this game.  But it’s also true that I tend to choose games with my heart rather than my brain; three weeks ago, right after the Steelers and Seahawks pulled out unbelievable wins at the last second, I was ready to send everything to hell and proclaim another disastrous Denver-Seattle Super Bowl.  But one week later, the Patriots restored my confidence and I thought they were a lock to beat Denver.  I purposefully overlooked Brady’s shaky record in Denver and Manning’s ability to play well at home in sunny weather after two months of rest and sustenance courtesy of Rocco and Gino.

            I have a rooting interest in this game and it is the Carolina Panthers, a franchise I’ve been rooting for since the days of Steve Beuerlein and Tim Biakabutuka.  I even felt a little sad after my team beat them in the Super Bowl 12 years ago and unless they were playing the Patriots or Saints, I can’t really remember any games I ever rooted against them.  So let’s forget about my heart (or my brain) for a second, and play a game of “worst-case scenario.”  Let’s try to imagine the hypothetical circumstances enabling the Broncos to win Super Bowl 50:

            First, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will have to dominate the Panthers’ offensive line, particularly on the outside, where tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers may be vulnerable.  Of course they had little difficulty doing that against the Patriots, but if they are able to beat the tackles, the Broncos’ pass rush also must cover the middle of the field in order to prevent plays like this from happening.  Denver was successful two weeks ago because Wade Phillips never blitzed, which is something they’ll have to continue to do in the Super Bowl since the Panthers have a quarterback who isn’t exactly intimidated by blitzes.

The Denver secondary will also have to eliminate downfield passes, which of course they were also very good at this season.  It’s not unthinkable to believe that Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and T.J. Ward can capably cover the likes of Greg Olson, Philly Brown, and Ted Ginn (who may not even require too much coverage due to his fairly egregious drop rate).  Forcing the Panthers into third-and-longs and eliminating long completions or scrambles is a great gameplan for the Broncos, and again, it’s not inconceivable that they could do this.  Denver was middle-of-the-pack when it came to picking off passes, but remember that the Broncos 14-1 (including the playoffs) when forcing at least one takeaway.

            The problem comes when you try to draw up a best-case scenario for the Denver offense.  It’s a given that Manning must be turnover-free and perhaps get some assistance from calls (or no calls) on the field.  The Broncos will need Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to have serious YAC (yards after catch) numbers, which could be possible if Manning targets the receiver not covered by Josh Norman; Robert McClain, filling in for an injured Peanut Tillman, has looked shaky at times this postseason.  Denver hasn’t been great running the ball in the last two games, but C.J. Anderson has broken off a couple of 30-yard runs which put the Broncos in field goal range in both games.  You have to wonder about the health of Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, and if Carolina opts to send a blitz against Manning, perhaps the offensive line can give him or Anderson enough time to burn the linebackers. 

            The issue is that even if the Broncos play well on offense, they probably won’t score more than 20-24 points.  Defenses know that Manning cannot throw the ball more than 15 yards or escape from pressure, and they also know that the Broncos’ conservative gameplan calls more for clock management and field position than explosiveness.  The best case scenario for the Broncos is that they take an early lead, preferably 7-0 or 10-0.  This eliminates pressure to pick up yardage and can enable Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to run out the clock.  Denver’s special teams have quietly been strong too, so keeping the Panthers inside their own 20 yard line (like they did so often against the Patriots) will be of paramount importance.  If the Broncos make it a game of field position, eliminate Cam’s comfort in the pocket, and benefit from some timely magic from the Sheriff, they can win the game.  They’re certainly the healthier team, the more experienced team, and just beat two quarterbacks who combined for six titles.  And let’s not forget who’s announcing.

            Writing this, it admittedly makes me feel a little uneasy about the “surefire” prediction that Carolina will beat Denver.  Haven’t we seen the Broncos execute this exact gameplan all season?  After all, as the 2003-2004 Patriots famously demonstrated, winning games in the clutch is a more important skill than winning blowouts.  But after thinking about it, there are three main reasons I still like the Panthers:

            1. Denver hasn’t faced a quarterback like Cam Newton all season.  In fact, the best rushing quarterbacks they squared off against were Andrew Luck and Alex Smith – in games the Broncos both lost.  On top of this, it’s virtually impossible to gameplan against Cam Newton because (recalling stat #47) no one in the league has figured him out.  Even if you take out his top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin), give him an oft-injured, second-tier runningback (Jonathan Stewart) and a very average offensive line (with Michael Oher, for god’s sake), he still puts up a 17-1 league MVP season.  That kind of transcendent skill is impossible to prepare for and contain.

            2. I trust Carolina in a neutral site more than Denver.  No one talks about the air pressure in Denver, which certainly had an effect on players like Gronkowski two weeks ago.  It takes the wind out of opponents, and extends the kicking game, which favors a defensive-oriented team like the Broncos.  Denver is coming off four straight home games where their average margin of victory was 4.75 points.  Their most impressive road wins were at Detroit Week 3 and at San Diego Week 13.  The Panthers weren’t exactly great away from home either, but did win in Seattle, New Orleans, and New York (all of which, the last I saw, were more impressive than Detroit or San Diego).  The NFC was tougher than the AFC, and I believe that being away from home impairs the Broncos more so than the Panthers (fact #22 really sticks out here).

            3. Denver’s style of play fits right into Carolina’s hands.  Manning turns over the ball a lot; the Panthers are the league’s best team at takeaways.  Denver eliminates deep passes and pressures the QB; the Panthers are a run-first offense (not exactly the strengths of Pittsburgh and New England) and Cam Newton is the best in the league at avoiding pressure.  In close games, Denver controls the clock and slows the pace down; in 6 of the 8 quarters they’ve played this postseason, Carolina has done the same thing, except with double-digit leads.  Even if you want to concede that Denver’s defense is the best in football, you also have to say that Carolina’s offense is the best.  And if you want to say that Carolina’s defense is one of the best in football, you have to also admit that Denver’s offense . . . well, isn’t.

            Teams that finished the season ranked #1 in total defense are 9-2 in Super Bowls.  Defense wins championships more so than offenses, sure.  But for Denver to win the game, Carolina is going to have to make mistakes – mistakes like missing an extra point or having your fourth-string runningback fumble or turning the ball away with seconds remaining.  Could Carolina make these devastating mistakes?  I mean, if Russell Wilson can, anyone can.  But unlike the Patriots last year, the way this Denver team wins games necessitates that such mistakes are made.  So maybe Cam Newton fumbles at the goal-line in the fourth quarter?  Maybe Graham Gano misses a 25-yard field goal?  Maybe Josh Norman has a chance to pick off Peyton Manning’s game-winning pass, but it slips through his hands?  All of those scenarios are in the cards.  But if the game is played 100 times, how often do each of those events happen?  Once?  Twice?  That still leaves 96 or 97 other scenarios.  At first I thought picking Carolina was going with my heart, but it actually seems fairly clear that it’s really going with my head.

Prediction: Carolina 37, Denver 13.

Doppelganger: Do we really have to look that far?

Special Prop Bets:

Odds that Jim Nantz’s and Peyton Manning’s shared agent will make an appearance in the booth: 3/1

Odds that Rocco and Gino will hold a “friendly one-on-one” with Nantz and Simms before the game to avoid any mention of you-know-what-banned-substance: 4/1

Odds that such a meeting isn’t necessary because they weren’t going to bring it up anyway: No bet.

Odds that representatives from Papa Johns and Nationwide will personally hand the Lombardi trophy to Peyton Manning: 5/1

Odds that Simms, Roger Goodell and Eli Manning will actually be wearing pom-poms and giggling with each other about going steady with the leader of the pack: 7/2

Odds that Nantz and Simms introduce Manning by humming “Great-est-QB-of-all-time” to the annoying “Nationwide” theme: 6/5

Odds that I will copy-paste this column and the 2013 Super Bowl preview when Newton’s Panthers and Manning’s LA Rams meet in next year’s NFC Championship Game: Even. 

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Conference Championships

            Conference Championship Sunday is maybe my favorite day in all of sports.  You have the four best teams in football, none of which have the advantage of coming off a bye week, all of which are eager to play in the biggest game of the year.  You have passionate fan bases, unfriendly winter weather, and players exhausted to their core after playing the most grueling sport for five straight months.  But at the end of the day, you have two teams full of smiles, high-fives, Gatorade showers, and countless “Is this really happening?” expressions on player’s faces.  It’s only the next day when you wake up and realize you have 13 grueling and anxiety-ridden days until the actual Super Bowl is played – just enough time for the unnecessary glorified publicity stunts witch hunts.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3½)

Sunday, January 24, 3:05pm EST, CBS.

            We think we know everything about Brady-Manning XVII, but if you look more closely at the recent history of this celebrated matchup, it becomes clear that the past doesn’t tell us a whole lot.  For example, most of the talking heads this week have mentioned how Tom Brady is 11-5 lifetime (including the playoffs) against Peyton Manning.  True enough, but because Brady won the first six matchups, that statistic is misleading; since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, Manning actually leads the series 6-5 and is 2-0 in playoff games. 

            Even the most recent Broncos-Patriots matchups are difficult to put into perspective for this week.  Everyone remembers the November 29 hatchet job by the refs hard-fought victory by the Broncos, but let’s not forget that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did not play for the Patriots, while Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski suffered game-ending injuries prior to New England blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead.  It’s also worth remembering that Denver’s comeback was engineered not by Manning, but by Brock Osweiler.

            And then there’s the 2013 AFC Championship game played two years ago, when Manning was coming off the greatest statistical season in NFL history and instead of a healthy Gronkowski, Brady had Austin Collie. The Broncos only scored 26 points, but it was one of the worst defensive performances I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick-coached team.  Manning was unstoppable that day, going 32/43 for 400 yards, and the Broncos scored on six of their eight possessions (they punted on their first, they kneeled the ball on their last). 

            The 26 points in that game were lucky – Denver couldn’t punch the ball in the red zone, and was forced to settle for field goals.  This time around, the Broncos scoring 26 points will also be a triumph of luck, but for the Denver offense, not New England’s defense.  Denver’s offense looked predictably abysmal last week against Pittsburgh, with receivers dropping wide open passes, Manning lofting throws over receivers’ heads, and the team proving to be utterly worthless on third down conversions (3 for 15).  True, they did not turn the ball over as many people suspected they would, but needed a late-game fumble by a 4^th-string runningback no one had ever heard of in order to take back the lead and eventually put the game away.  Kind of like how back in November, they needed a late-game fumble by a punt returner no one had ever heard of (and no one has heard of since).

            The Broncos thrive on opposing teams’ mistakes.  Including last week, Denver is now 12-1 in games where they force at least one takeaway.  They’re also 13-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer, and 9-2 in games allowing 230 passing yards or less.  Now let’s consider New England: They led the league in fewest giveaways (14), they scored at least 24 points in all but three of their games (and every game that Julian Edelman was in the lineup), and Brady threw for 230+ yards in 15 of his 17 games.  In other words, New England’s offense capitalizes on the very things the Denver defense prides itself on.         

            Of course, many have asked the question of how New England plans on mounting any semblance of a ground game against the Denver defense.  Curiously, the Broncos’ two best games against the run (Week 14 vs. Oakland and Week 15 at Pittsburgh) were both losses, but because the Broncos aren’t the Colts, New England will probably not run the ball much this week anyway.  But running the ball isn’t really a priority; in games where the Patriots throw for over 270 yards, they are 10-1.  Conversely, when the Broncos throw for over 270 yards, they are a modest 5-3.

            The 26 points stat is a good one because I don’t really believe the Broncos can score that many points – at least, not with Peyton Manning at the helm and not with a healthy Patriots’ defense.  To be sure, there are a lot of unpleasant things for Patriots fans about the prospect of playing in Denver: Namely, Brady’s lifetime record there (2-6); the fact the only quarterbacks New England has defeated in Denver were Tim Tebow and Danny Kanell; the weather forecast (mildly overcast and upper-40s, as opposed to the 30 degree snowstorm conditions in Foxboro); Manning’s record in AFC championship games since 2005 (3-0); and the fact that no fourth quarter lead will be safe as a result of our inability to run the ball.

            But as a Patriots fan, I do not worry about the one thing that I’ve always worried about in the storied Brady-Manning rivalry, which is Peyton systematically tearing up our defense.  Want an absurd stat?  Two years removed from throwing 55 touchdowns in a single season, Peyton Manning has thrown a grand total of one touchdown in Denver all season, including last week.  Granted, he missed seven games due to “injury,” but one touchdown??  Brady had three touchdowns in Denver minus his top two wide receivers.  As per usual, Manning is blessed with two of the top receivers in the league (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), but both were bottled in in the November 29 game until they each caught 35+ yard passes in the game’s final 2:30.  The recipe for Denver is simple: Rely as little as possible on Manning’s throwing arm.  Run the ball down New England’s throat.  Pick up third-and-shorts and score touchdowns rather than field goals.  Limit Edelman and Gronkowski, while putting constant pressure on Brady.  Follow the advice of Cam Newton last week and start running the clock down in the first quarter.

            Do I believe the Broncos can do those things?  Maybe.  I’ve been surprised all year how Denver is able to pull victories out of their ass while looking completely inept.  But even when everything fell the Broncos’ way on November 29 (the blown lead, the turnovers, the officiating, the in-game injuries, and the fact that it was Osweiler at QB rather than Manning), the Patriots still ended up scoring 24 points and forcing overtime (while never touching the ball in OT).  If you’re taking Denver in this game, you believe that their man-on-man, blitzing defense can hold Brady and company under 20 points, which no team has done all year with Edelman in the lineup.  You also believe that Peyton Manning can throw touchdowns (which he hasn’t done) and that the ground game will repeat its performance on November 29 (except this time against a healthy Dont’a Hightower).  In other words, you hope for miracles, which Denver has admittedly had plenty of in 2015.  But at some point, luck runs out and the better team takes care of business.

Prediction: New England 27, Denver 17

Playoff Doppelganger: 2004 AFC Championship, New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.  The Steelers had a great defense but problems at QB (a shaky rookie rather than a grizzled veteran who requires HGH nothing more than leadership and faith).  The defending champion Pats had gone into Pittsburgh earlier in the year lost badly; this was their revenge game.  It’s difficult to expect the one-sidedness that that game quickly turned into, but going into the game, there were few people that ever truly doubted the result. 

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3½)

Sunday, January 24, 6:40pm EST, Fox.

            See if you can answer this simple question.  Last week, Quarterback A went 25 of 41 for 349 yards and three touchdowns.  Quarterback B finished 16 for 22 for 161 yards, one touchdown, and carried the ball 11 times for three yards.  So which quarterback had the better week?

            Of course, by this point you should know that Quarterback A is Carson Palmer and Quarterback B is Cam Newton, and it’s not really a fair question since both teams won their games and both offenses are designed differently (as well as the convenient omission that Quarterback A threw two bad interceptions).  But hopefully, the point is clear that many football statistics are deceptive.  For example, anyone who watched both quarterbacks last week would know that Cam looked considerably better, calmer, and more confident than Palmer.  Maybe it’s easier to play that way when you’re spotted a 31-point lead. 

            In any event, it’s now officially time to start worrying about Carson Palmer’s finger, no matter what the team and its former superstars are saying about the extent of his injury.  Or to put it another way: Given how bad several of his passes were last week, would it be any real consolation to Arizona fans if they found out Palmer wasn’t injured?  Then he’s just jittery, unproven, and bad at making decisions in crunch time – and all this against a mediocre Green Bay secondary at home.  More worrisome statistics from last week’s game: Between 6:48 in the first quarter (when Palmer threw a touchdown to Michael Floyd) and 3:44 of the fourth quarter (Floyd’s second receiving TD), Arizona mustered a grand total of 3 points, along with two punts and two interceptions.  David Johnson was ineffective on the ground all game (15 carries for 35 yards), and even though the Packers were extra sinful and needed two Hail Marys to force overtime, the Cardinals’ secondary still gave up 200 combined receiving yards to the uber-Caucasian combination of Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis.

            If you’re a Cardinals fan, you try your darndest to invoke the magic of the 2008 team (God, puppies, and Pakistan) and remember that the best receiver on the field this Sunday will be Larry Legend who, in his eight postseason games, has amassed an unreal 53 receptions for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns.  You can also still revel in the fact that in his four postseason games, Cam Newton still hasn’t had “that” game – you know, the one where he throws for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 50 yards on the ground for an overtime win.  Actually, maybe that’s a bad omen if you’re rooting for Arizona this weekend.  But in any event, Carolina’s two playoff victories under Cam (one of which came last year against the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals) have required very little from their quarterback.  And in case you forgot, the Cardinals still have an outstanding defense, while the Panthers still have Ted Ginn, Philly Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery.

            But I like Carolina in this game for reasons more than just Arizona’s shortcomings last week.  I believe Carolina and Seattle were the two best teams heading into last weekend, and we all saw the damage the Panthers are capable of reeking when putting their foot on the gas pedal.  Many thought Riverboat Ron was not deserving of his nickname last week when he opted to start running down the clock in the first quarter, but technically, such a conservative strategy was still pretty risky knowing the Seahawks’ flair for second-half comebacks (in case you don’t believe me, just ask Mike McCarthy).  Cam occasionally looked frustrated at being bottled up, but the Panthers looked comfortable taking care of business on third down and did indeed rush for 144 yards against the vaunted Seattle defense.  Arizona and Seattle are similar in some areas (such as lack of consistent running game and excellence at home), but different in a few crucial ones: The Seahawks have a mobile, duel-threat quarterback known for his insane improvisation; the Seahawks have had the league’s best defense the past four years; and they have been to the Super Bowl the last two.  In other words, Arizona feels a lot less intimidating than Seattle.

            While I’m weary of statistics, a few do jump out.  One is that in its first ten games, Arizona scored 30+ points on seven occasions.  In the seven games after that, Arizona has only scored 30+ points twice.  The Cardinals will have to score points in order to keep up with the Panthers, who led the league in offense and like the Patriots, scored 27 points or more in all but three games.  The Panthers obviously thrive off the run, but in the three games where Arizona has given up 140 yards or more on the ground, they are 0-3.  Carolina also led the league in most takeaways; Arizona finished 17^th in the league in giveaways.  Arizona is 10-0 in games where they rushed for more than 115 yards; Carolina only permitted four such games, all of which ended up being Panthers victories.

            Bruce Arians is a great coach and Larry Legend is a great receiver, but the Panthers are the league’s most complete team.  Last week eliminated any doubts about their weak schedule, Cam’s playoff credentials, or taking on proven opponents in big games.  Like I said earlier, because last week’s game was such a blowout early, we only saw a fraction of what they are truly capable of.  Cam Newton being held to three rushing yards feels about as unlikely as Carson Palmer pulling a Kurt Warner (with Newton simultaneously combusting into Jake Delhomme). 

Prediction: Carolina 30, Arizona 13

           

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 NFC Championship, Chicago 39, New Orleans 14.  Cam is certainly better than Rex Grossman, but the Bears had the league’s most dominant defense and a bruising, effective running game.  They controlled the clock, wreaked havoc on the Saints’ offensive line, and took care of business one week after eliminating the defending NFC champion Seahawks.  On a side note, this is the last NFC Championship Game that was decided by more than 7 points.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Looking forward to a Super Bowl 38 rematch as much as I am? Let me know below!